2011 federal election poll maps: Nipissing--Timiskaming

The second riding I will profile since Elections Canada released the 2011 election poll by poll results is Nipissing--Timiskaming. This riding is located in Northeastern Ontario, and is largely centred on the City of North Bay. The riding extends as far north as the Municipality of Temiskaming Shores in the north which incorporates the communities of Haileybury and New Liskeard. The riding runs along the Quebec border past Mattawa, Ontario, and then south into Algonquin Park. The riding goes west to also include the communities of Powassan and Trout Creek.

Click on map to enlarge

Nipissing--Timiskaming was the second closest race of the 2011 election. It required a judicial recount to determine that the Conservative candidate, Jay Aspin had defeated the incumbent Liberal MP, Anthony Rota by just 18 votes. The riding, which for the most part is a descendant from the old Nipissing riding has been solidly Liberal since 1988. In fact, it had only voted Tory once since 1921. Provincially, the area is more of a bellwether, in that it has switched parties often. Nipissing was the riding of former provincial Premier Mike Harris.

While the Tories picking up the riding was seen as a surprise by many, it wasn't that far fetched. Rota had defeated his Conservative opponent by less than 5000 votes in the 2008 election. A 6.2% swing from the Liberals to the Conservatives gave the Tories the narrow victory.

The Tories won the seat by picking up polls across the rural parts of the riding from the Liberals. They also made inroads into North Bay, however the Liberals still won the city overwhelmingly. The Conservatives saw their strongest performance in the Anglo Protestant areas just south of Lake Nipissing, which includes the Township of Nipissing, and the communities of Trout Creek and Powassan. The Liberals' strongest areas were in North Bay, and mostly in the north end of the city, which has a high francophone population.

While the Conservatives gained 4.4% at the polls, the NDP increased their vote even more, going up 5% points. They won a few polls scattered across the riding. Four of these polls were won in the rural heavily francophone townships of East Ferris and Bonfield. While the NDP candidate didn't have a French name, the NDP surge in Quebec probably helped the party in the French communities of the riding. The best NDP poll was the Bear Island Indian Reserve. While the reserve is small, the poll is quite large, and is that large dark orange area on the west side of the riding.

The Liberals have traditionally done well among the French in this riding, but this has slipped in 2011. While the Liberals won in the French parts of North Bay, the lost in the french rural areas and towns, like in Mattawa, and Temiskaming Shores.

Poll map note: While the 2011 poll by poll shape files are available, I used the 2008 boundaries here. I don't have a working GIS program, so I have to trace over the 2008 poll maps at the Smufmatic website. That would also explain a slightly wonky projection in my map.

Ontario election 2011 prediction (mid July edition)

A few days ago, Ipsos-Reid released a poll for the upcoming Ontario election that indicated the following:

Tories: 42%

Liberals: 31%

NDP: 22%

Greens: 5%

These numbers are slightly better for the Liberals than the Forum Research poll I discussed in my last prediction. This Ipsos-Reid poll was conducted over a month, beginning in early June while the Forum Research poll was held on one weekend in later June. This could explain the difference, but any ideas I come up with would be pure speculation.

Anyways, I realized that if I want to keep up with these polls, I have to use at least some mathematical methodology. At least until we have a better idea of what's happening in each local riding. This is why I am going to use a swingometre to help me with things for the time being. The swingometre is a tool used more in British and Australian elections to look at how swings in votes can result in seat changes. Because we use the same electoral system, we can use it here too. One problem with it is that it assumes a uniform swing to one party, which is never the case. But it will aid me for the time being, as I am not sure how local races will be affected at the moment.

 The Swingometre, explained

Here, I have two graphs. One shows the races that were Liberal vs. PC in the 2007 election and the other shows Liberal vs. NDP races. I included one seat where the NDP was a strong third in the lower graph as well. Each dot represents a seat. At the 0 mark in the middle are the results of the last election. If we move to the right of the mark, we assume a swing from the Liberals (to the Tories in the top graph and the NDP in the lower graph). The further right it goes, the more of those red dots will turn either blue or orange. I have not included a NDP vs. Tory graph, as there was only one race between those two parties. Also, there was one Tory vs. Green race that was not included.

The numbers represent the % swing. That is basically the average increase in support for one party compared to the average decrease of the other party. The Liberals won the last election by 10.6% of the vote. Therefore it would require a 5.3% swing to the Tories (the Liberals decrease their vote by 5.3% and the Tories increase it by 5.3% resulting in a tie). As you can see from the chart, this would only give the Tories 7 more seats, not enough to win the election. They need 28 seats to get a majority. This would require a swing of about 8.5% to the Tories, meaning that they could theoretically win the popular vote and still lose the election.

Luckily for the Tories, the latest Ipsos-Reid poll gives about an 11% swing to the Tories, which would give them 39 additional seats, well into majority territory. The poll also gives an 8% swing from the Liberals to the NDP, which translates to 9 additional NDP seats.

My new mid-July prediction will not be following the swingometre at verbatim. I still know enough about local voting habits to know that even with an 11% swing, certain seats will not fall. Also, some seats may fall which would require a greater than average swing.

Liberal vs. PC seats
The following is a list of Liberal held seats where the Tories finished 2nd in the last election, showing the swing the Tories need in order to pick up the riding. It also shows which party holds the seat federally which will help show us how realistic it is for that riding to vote Tory.

Riding	Swing required (%)	Federal Party
Nipissing	0.7	Conservative*
Barrie	1.5	Conservative
Kitchener--Conestoga	2.4	Conservative
Eglinton--Lawrence	2.7	Conservative
Ancaster--Dundas--Flaborough--Westdale	3.4	Conservative
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex	3.5	Conservative
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry	5.1	Conservative
Don Valley West	5.4	Conservative
London--Fanshawe	5.6	NDP
Oak Ridges--Markham	6.1	Conservative
Mississauga South	6.1	Conservative
Brampton West	6.3	Conservative
Willowdale	6.3	Conservative
Richmond Hill	6.5	Conservative
Prince Edward--Hastings	6.8	Conservative
Northumberland--Quinte West	7.1	Conservative
Scarborough--Guildwood	7.3	Liberal
Ajax--Pickering	7.4	Conservative
Mississauga--Erindale	7.4	Conservative
Perth--Wellington	7.4	Conservative
Oakville	7.4	Conservative
Etobicoke--Lakeshore	7.7	Conservative
Huron--Bruce	7.7	Conservative
Etobicoke Centre	7.9	Conservative
Niagara Falls	8.2	Conservative
Guelph	8.2	Liberal
York Centre	8.2	Conservative
Pickering--Scarborough East	8.5	Conservative
Bramalea--Gore--Malton	8.8	Conservative
St. Catharines	9.2	Conservative
Ottawa--Orleans	9.2	Conservative
Elgin--Middlesex--London	9.3	Conservative
Ottawa West--Nepean	9.4	Conservative
Brampton--Springdale	10.0	Conservative
Brant	10.1	Conservative
Kitchener Centre	10.2	Conservative
Ottawa South	10.2	Liberal
Scarborough Southwest	10.3	NDP
St. Paul's	10.4	Liberal
Peterborough	11.0	Conservative
Essex	11.5	Conservative
Chatham-Kent--Essex	11.6	Conservative
London North Centre	11.7	Conservative
Mississauga--Streetsville	11.8	Conservative
Kingston and the Islands	12.5	Liberal
Toronto Centre	13.8	Liberal
London West	14.1	Conservative
Mississauga--Brampton South	14.2	Liberal
Scarborough Centre	14.3	Conservative
Ottawa--Vanier	14.3	Liberal
Don Valley East	15.3	Conservative
Markham--Unionville	16.3	Liberal
Scarborough--Agincourt	16.4	Liberal
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell	16.7	Conservative
Etobicoke North	16.9	Liberal
Mississauga East--Cooksville	17.9	Conservative
Vaughan	21.6	Conservative
Scarborough--Rouge River	25.3	NDP

*Nipissing is part of the Nipissing--Timiskaming federal riding, which has different borders.

As you can see from this chart, even the "safest" provincial Liberal seats are not that safe at all. Their three "safest" seats are held by different parties in federal parliament.

Liberal vs. NDP seats
The following is a list of Liberal seats where the NDP finished 2nd in the last election. I have also included London--Fanshawe, where the NDP was a close third place.

Riding	Swing required (%)	Federal Party
Thunder Bay--Atikokan	0.1	NDP*
York South--Weston	0.7	NDP
Timiskaming--Cochrane	1.2	N/A*
Hamilton Mountain	1.9	NDP
Ottawa Centre	2.0	NDP
Davenport	2.7	NDP
Algoma--Manitoulin	2.8	NDP*
Thunder Bay--Superior North	4.3	NDP*
London--Fanshawe	6.2	NDP
Windsor West	12.3	NDP
Windsor--Tecumseh	12.9	NDP
York West	13.4	Liberal
Sudbury	15.8	NDP*
Sault Ste. Marie	16.9	Conservative*

2011 federal election poll maps: Ottawa South

Last week, Elections Canada released the official poll by poll results of the 2011 federal election. The current format is either in PDF or CSV, while the Official Voting Results document they usually publish will not be available until August. Members of the US Election Atlas Forum (myself included) have begun to post riding maps already, and we can expect more to come. Some of the members have allowed me to use their maps, and I will post them in the future. But, I plan on doing an analysis of each map, so I will post them on the blog individually in the future.

Today, I will start with Ottawa South. This is the riding where I grew up, so I get to start with it.

Liberal MP David McGuinty won the seat with 44.0% of the vote, down 5.9% from 2008, and his lowest showing since his first election in 2004. The Conservative candidate, Elie Salibi was down just 0.01% to 33.3% from his mark set when he ran in the previous election. The NDP candidate, James McLaren received 18.2% of the vote, the highest ever for the party in the riding. He increased the NDP's share of the vote by 9.7%.

These results translated into a swing of 2.9% from the Liberals to the Tories, which helped them pick up a number of polls. The Tories won most of their polls in the south of the riding, mostly in Blossom Park. They also made inroads in the Urbandale community where they won 4 polls and tied in one more.  The Liberals won the overwhelming number of polls however, getting their best results in the central part of the riding, concentrated in the middle class Alta Vista area where they were able to win a majority of votes in most of the polls. The Liberals did bleed to the NDP in many of the immigrant areas, which one a handful of polls- for the first time since winning one in 2004. The NDP won six polls, and tied in two others. Two of these polls were in the working class Heron Gate area. The other polls were all apartment or town house polls. The Tories also won some similar apartment polls, where they benefited from vote splitting between the Liberals and NDP- and perhaps a "small c" conservative immigrant vote.

Saskatchewan 2011 election prediction (July edition)

Saskatchewan is going to the polls a month later than the other four provinces going to the polls this year. The date of the election will be November 7. The current government is formed by the Saskatchewan Party, which is coming off their first ever term in government after being formed from the former provincial Progressive Conservative Party and some Liberals.

Saskatchewan is going through some of the best economic times in its history, which is benefiting the governing party there. The Saskatchewan Party currently holds 38 of the 58 seats in the Saskatchewan Legislative Assembly. The N.D.P. holds the remaining seats.

Surprisingly, there have been no polls in the province this year, but there have been a handful in previous years. The last poll was from November 2010, which showed the Saskatchewan Party at 57%, the NDP at 29% and the Liberals, which hold no seats at 8%. The SP has been polling around the 60% mark since late 2008 and is up from 51% in the previous provincial election in 2007. Meanwhile, the NDP has been polling around just 30% during the same time frame, down from 37% in 2007. I can't see things being much different right now, but some new polls would be nice.

Predictions
Without a poll in 8 months, it is difficult to tell what will happen in Saskatchewan at the moment. But, I'll give it a try anyways. Let's assume the Saskatchewan Party is still in the high 50s in popular support and the NDP in the high 20s. 

 Rural Saskatchewan
Outside of Regina and Saskatoon is right wing Saskatchewan Party country. They Sask Party currently holds 30 of the 35 ridings in rural Saskatchewan. The NDP is limited to the other 5, concentrated in smaller urban areas and the far north.

The far north of Saskatchewan is traditional NDP territory, while the further south you go, the less NDP friendly the terrain. The NDP holds 4 seats in the region, two of which are the 2 far northern ridings (Athabasca and Cumberland). Athabasca has been held by MLA Buckley Belanger since 1995 when he was elected as a Liberal. He switched to the NDP in 1998. He won the seat by 27% in 2007, so it should be safe NDP. The other far north riding of Cumberland should be more interesting. It has elected NDP and CCF members for most of its history, and mostly with massive margins. However, the riding had a by-election in 2008 where the Saskatchewan Party came within 164 votes of winning the seat. Because of this close result, I cannot call this one way or the other.

The other two NDP seats in Northern Saskatchewan are in urban areas. The Battlefords was won by the NDP by just 300 votes in 2007, so one would expect an easy Sask Party pick up, right? Well, Liberal leader Ryan Bater is running in this seat, and will change the dynamics. The Liberals have no seats in the Saskatchewan legislature at present, and my money is against them winning any this time. However, the area has supported the Liberals in the past. For now, it's a toss up.  The final NDP seat in the region is Prince Albert Northcote. While this seat has been supporting the NDP since its creation in 1995, the party won by just 19% last election, which could put it into play for the Saskatchewan Party. For now, it's a toss up. 

At present, the Saskatchewan Party is unlikely to lose any seats in the election. In the North, they are however defending three seats with retiring incumbents. In Cut Knife-Turtleford, MLA Michael Chisholm is retiring. This rural seat was won by Chisholm by nearly 30% of the vote in 2007. This is a safe Sask Party seat. Next door is Rosthern-Shellbrook where Denis Allchurch is retiring. He won in 2007 by a smaller 18% margin, but I'd still say this is a safe Sask Party seat. Finally in Melfort, former Liberal MLA and current Sask Party MLA Rod Gantefoer is retiring. This seat hasn't voted NDP since 1991, and Gantefoer won it by nearly 35% of the vote. This is also a safe Sask Party seat. 

There will not be many interesting races in rural southern Saskatchewan. All MLAs will be running for re-election, and the only NDP seat in this region is Moose Jaw Wakamow. All other seats I predict the Sask Party will easily hold on to. Moose Jaw Wakamow will be a seat to watch, though. MLA Deb Higgins won the seat by 16% points in 2007, so it is definitely on the Sask Party's radar. For now, it's too close to call.  

Saskatoon
As recently as the 1999 provincial election, none of Saskatoon's seats voted for the Saskatchewan Party. Ever since then, the Saskatchewan Party has been eating away at the NDP's foothold there. Presently, the Sask Party holds 5 of the 12 seats in the city. And, if their numbers keep up, they are in for a few more gains to- perhaps attaining a majority of the seats in the city.


The NDP will have one retiring MLA this election in the city. Pat Atkinson will be retiring in the riding of Saskatoon Nutana, in the south end of the city. She won her seat by 23% in 2007; however, now that it is vacant, the seat will be placed in the toss up category. The Sask Party will also be having one retiring incumbent, in the riding of Saskatoon Sutherland. If the NDP gains any seats in this election, this is probably the first place to look. Retiring MLA Joceline Schriemer won this seat by just 219 votes in 2007, in a riding that the NDP held since 1986. However, with the present numbers favouring the Sask Party, I expect them to keep this seat. 


The most likely pick up for the Sask Party this election will be in the riding of Saskatoon Eastview. This is solely based on the riding's previous result which saw the NDP win by just over 300 votes. One caveat here is that the NDP has held the riding since 1988. However, I am calling this a Sask Party pick up. Another possible pick up is the riding of Saskatoon Meewasin. It too was won by the NDP by just over 300 votes last election. However, because the riding's % margin is greater, it's too close to call at this point. Finally, another possible pick up for the Sask Party is Saskatoon Riversdale, where they will have to overcome over 400 votes to defeat the NDP which has held the seat since 1986. This is also a toss up. The other three seats held by the NDP in the city (Saskatoon Centre, Saskatoon Fairview and Saskatoon Massey Place) should all be NDP holds, as they won by fairly comfortable margins in 2007. 


Regina
The Saskatchewan Party has had a more difficult time winning in Regina, the provincial capital. They hold just three seats in the city, gaining all of them in the 2007 election from winning none in 2003. Winning more seats in Regina will be a target for the Saskatchewan Party in this election as well. 


There are two seats in the city that the NDP will be vacating with retiring incumbents. One is Regina Coronation Park, in the city's north end, where Kim Trew is retiring. He won in 2007 by 24%. This is a fairly safe NDP seat, that they should be able to keep. The other open seat will be Regina Northeast where Ron Harper is retiring. The NDP has held this seat since 1986, but Harper only won by just under 700 votes. The NDP is in trouble here, and I expect a Sask Party gain.


At least two other NDP seats in the city will be targeted by the Sask Party this election. Their best shot is in Regina Dewdney where they lost by just 500 votes in 2007. I predict a Sask Party gain here as well. The other target for the Sask Party is Regina Lakeview where they lost by 15% last election. This is large deficit to make up, but at current polls, this seat could be in play. Toss up. The remaining 4 seats in the city should remain NDP seats come election day. All of them were won by the NDP by at least 20% in 2007. 


Conclusion
If the last poll of Saskatchewan, held last November proves to be close to the election result, the NDP is in deep danger. They are looking at a minimum of 9 seats out of 58 in the Saskatchewan legislature. In order to prevent this hemorrhaging, the NDP must hold onto their urban ridings, which has been their base in the province lately. If they turn things around, they need to win back these cities in order to do well in the election. Meanwhile the Sask Party needs to just have a good campaign, and they'll be sure to pick up a few seats. Oh, and the Liberals? They'll be really lucky to win a seat.

Saskatchewan Party: 41

NDP: 9

Toss ups: 8

Manitoba election 2011 prediction (July edition)

Manitoba will be one of the many provinces that will have elections this Fall. They will be going to the polls on October 4. The NDP currently holds a comfortable majority in the Manitoba legislature (36 of 57 seats). From last Fall until recently, the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party (the Tories) have held a lead  in the polls over the governing New Democratic Party. However, recent events have catapulted the NDP into a tie with the Tories.

The most recent poll of Manitobans that came out last week showed the Tories and the NDP in a 44-44 tie, with the Liberals at just 9%. Many theories exist as to why the NDP has bumped up from the mid-to-high 30s they had been polling in earlier months. Premier Greg Selinger's response to the Spring floods in the province is one reason. Another reason is the return of the Winnipeg Jets NHL team, which many see as a sign of the economic revival the province has been experiencing. It can be argued that the NDP can take much credit for this, as they have been in power for 12 years. At the same time, the Tories may argue that it's "time for change". Lastly, the NDP surge in the federal election may be rubbing off on Manitobans, although since the party already forms government there, I'm not sure how much of a factor that could be.

Predictions
The first challenge to predicting the Manitoba election is that they have undergone a redistribution since the last election. This means that many of the districts are brand new, and it will be a challenge to predict districts which are new. Elections Manitoba has not published a "transposition of votes", showing how the new ridings voted in the last election, so how they voted will be some guess work on my part. 

For my analysis, I'll divide Manitoba into two regions: Winnipeg (which has a 31 of the 57 ridings) and the rest of the province. 

Winnipeg
Politically, Winnipeg can be divided in to two regions: the working class north end which tends to vote NDP, and the more affluent south end which tends to support the Tories. However, in recent elections the NDP has been able to win seats in the south end, which have been crucial to forming a majority in the Manitoba legislature. If the Tories want to win the election, it will come from picking up seats in this part of the city.

The NDP will have on retiring incumbent from the south end. MLA Marilyn Brick from St. Norbert will not be running again. She won this seat for the NDP for the first time in 2003. She won this seat by 22% in the 2007 provincial election, making it seem like a safe seat. However, with her gone, and its Tory past, this will be on of the Tory targets. For now, it's a toss up.

There is only one seat in Winnipeg's south end that the Tories came within 15% of, and that was Southdale. The NDP won this seat for the first time in 2007, defeating the Tory incumbent by 11%. This will have to be another top target for the Progressive Conservatives, but for now it's a toss up.

One new riding that may be one to watch in Winnipeg's south end is Fort Richmond. The NDP is running Kerri Irvin-Ross who currently represents the riding of Fort Garry. However, Fort Richmond will only encompass part of Fort Garry, meaning much of this new riding will be new territory for Irvin-Ross, meaning a possible Tory pick up here. But, without knowing any more information, this will be a toss up. 

It will take some big swings for the Tories to pick up the rest of the south end ridings. The ridings of Riel and Seine River should also be Tory targets, as they have won in those seats in the 90s, and lost them by 16.5% and 25% respectively in the 2007 elections. For now however, these will be NDP holds.

Winnipeg's affluent West End is much like the south end, in that it is a political swing area. The Tories did win 2 of the 5 seats here in 2007. There will be one open seat in the area, that of St. James where NDP MLA Bonnie Korzeniowski will be retiring. She won her seat by 25% in the 2007 election, and its lack of incumbency means it will likely be targeted by the Tories. However, the riding has been held by the NDP since 1995, and the Tories haven't won here since the 1970s. They will certainly be having an uphill battle here. For now though, this will be a toss up.

The lowest hanging fruit for the Tories in the entire province is Kirkfield Park, in the west end. The NDP won this seat by 11% in 2007, and this was the closest race the Tories lost last time. Yes, that's right... not a single riding was won by the NDP by less than that margin. That's why even with a tie in the polls, the Tories will be having an uphill battle to win seats in this election. For now, even this district will be a toss up.

The final seat the NDP holds in Winnipeg's West End is Assiniboia which they won by 40% in 2007. While it is a relatively new NDP seat, having won it for the first time in 40 years in 1999, this margin seams insurmountable at the present time. NDP hold.

To wrap up the city, let's take a look at the north and central parts of Winnipeg. This area saw some swings against the NDP in the federal election, and this may occur as well provincially. However, most seats in this area are rock solid NDP seats. In 2007, the Tories just won one seat here (River East), and the Liberals won two (Inkster and River Heights).

The NDP will be defending three open seats in the area. George Hickes will not be running again in Point Douglas, but the difference between him and his 2nd place opponent was over 50%. This is a safe NDP seat.  The NDP's Diane McGifford will not be running again either. Her seat of Lord Roberts however will be abolished into the new seat of Fort Garry-Riverview. This new seat will encompass parts of the former Fort Garry riding as well. Now, I'm not that familiar with the area, but considering the NDP won Fort Garry by 27% of the vote and Lord Roberts 40% of the vote, this should be an NDP victory. Finally, the only other open seat for the NDP in this area will be Burrows, where MLA Doug Martindale is retiring. He won by 52% of the vote in 2007, so I expect the NDP to hold this riding.

The Liberals will also be defending an open seat in Winnipeg. Former Liberal MLA Kevin Lamoureux has moved onto federal politics and his former seat of Inkster is currently vacant. However, the riding has been abolished into The Maples and the new seat of Tyndall Park. Tyndall Park is being created out of Inkster and the former riding of Wellington. The Maples is a fairly safe NDP seat, having won it by 25.5% in the last election, so it should be an NDP hold. Tyndall Park will be interesting, as it's a new riding without an incumbent. Before electing Lamoureux, his seat of Inkster was a long time NDP seat, while Tyndall Park's other predecessor riding of Wellington is also a long time NDP seat. This should be an NDP victory, but look for the Liberals to do well.

The Liberals hold just one seat in Manitoba currently, that being River Heights. Even now with the Party polling in single digits, the party should hold this seat. It is represented by the party's leader, Jon Gerrard. This upper class riding has never elected an NDPer, and has been represented by the Liberals for 21 of the last 25 years. It has a large wealthy Jewish population, which has historically backed the Liberal Party here. Liberal hold.

The rest of region should stay NDP, except for the northern suburban riding of River East which is held by the Tories. The Tories might have a shot at Radisson, which they lost by 21% in 2007. Some of this riding is in the federal riding of Elmwood--Trancona which has recently gone from safe NDP to Conservative. If demographics are to blame for some of this, then we can expect Radisson to be a Tory target for 2011. However, the party has not held this seat in 30 years.

Rural Manitoba
Save for the north, rural Manitoba is generally quite conservative. The NDP holds 11 seats in rural Manitoba, 5 of which in the North, where they won all of the seats. The Tories won 15 seats in rural Manitoba, all in the south part of the province. 

All 11 MLAs for the NDP appear to be running for re-election. The only open seats are Tory seats, all of which they should keep. The ridings of Lac du Bonnet is being vacated by Gerald Hawranik. It is the safest of the open seats, as Hawranik won by 25% last election. Portage la Prairie is being vacated by David Faurschou. Based on history, this riding should be quite safe, as it has never elected an NDPer or CCFer since confederation. However Faurschou won in 2007 by just 400 votes. Brandon West was another close race in 2007, and was the only Tory pick up from that election. Former MP and Brandon mayor Rick Borotsik won the seat by just 56 votes. The riding has been a swing riding in the past, and could be a surprise and go NDP, but probably will vote for the Tory candidate. Finally, the fourth open seat with a retiring Tory incumbent is Pembina. Pembina is being redistributed into the new ridings of Morden-Winkler, Midland and the existing riding of Emerson. All of these seats are in a region that voted for the Tories in 2007, and expect the same in 2011. 


All five Northern Manitoba seats are safe for the NDP. The Tories might have a shot at Swan River, however, where they lost by 19% last time. Next to Swan River in Western Manitoba is the riding of Dauphin, which more or less corresponds to the previous riding of Dauphin-Roblin. This area has been represented by the NDP for the last 30 years, but will be a Tory target in this election as they only lost the seat by 12% in 2007. For now, it's a toss up. The only other NDP seat in Western Manitoba is Brandon East. This seat has been held by the NDP since it was created in 1969. However, the Tories came 16% of winning this in 2007. For now, it's a lean NDP seat.

The only seats held by the NDP in central Manitoba are Interlake and Gimli. Both seats were won by the NDP by about 25% in the 2007 election. Both are distant Tory targets, but for now they should stay NDP.  

Finally, in Eastern Manitoba, there will be some interesting races due to boundary changes. The new riding of Dawson Trail will be a complete toss up. Its being created out of the safe Tory seat of Morris and the NDP seat of La Verendrye. La Verendrye's incumbent has chosen not to run in that riding, and is running in Dawson Trail. La Verendrye in contrast has had major boundary changes, and has gained a lot of rural areas, meaning that this NDP seat will more then likely turn blue. This will be a Tory pick up. Selkirk is the only other NDP riding in the area. The NDP candidate won by nealy 20% of the vote in 2007. While it is probably a Tory target, they have never won the seat in its history. NDP hold. 

Conclusion

While the Tories are sure to make gains in this election, a close race in the popular vote may mean an electoral for the Progressive Conservatives, even if they win the popular vote. As mentioned, there are no close target seats for the Tories, as the seat they lost with the lowest margin in 2007 was still a loss by 11%. However, Manitoba is not a province of uniform swings, so anything can really happen on election day.  For now however, it appears that despite the tie in the polls, the NDP will win another majority government.

Projected Seat totals:

NDP: 30

Tories: 19

Liberals: 1

Toss ups: 7

Liberal change (2008-2011)

This map shows the percentage change for the Liberal Party between the 2008 and 2011 elections. In previous posts, I covered the Conservatives and the NDP change.

While the traditional colour for the Liberals is red, that colour on this map is bad for the party. The darker the red, the more the party's vote share went down. And there is a lot of red. Green on the other hand means an increase in support for the party.

The Liberals really got hit hard in the 2011 election. The once "natural governing party of Canada" fell to a measly 34 seats, down from 77 they won in 2008.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals only gained support in three seats- all in Nova Scotia. Perhaps this came from disgruntled former NDP supporters, upset with the provincial government. This may have been true, but each riding they gained in has its own story. In West Nova, the marginal Liberal gain can be attributed to those NDP supporters upset over the provincial government cancelling the Yarmouth ferry in the riding. In Cumberland--Colchester--Musquodoboit Valley, Liberal supporters supporting Independent Bill Casey may have come back home. And in Central Nova, the Liberals could only go up, having no candidate in 2008 (they had agreed not to run one against the Green's Elizabeth May). The Liberals lost every where else in the region, especially in northern New Brunswick, Saint John, Egmont in P.E.I. and in Labrador, where the Liberals lost a once strong seat to Peter Penashue of the Conservatives, who was the popular leader of the Labrador Innu Nation.

Quebec saw losses for the Liberals in every riding except Beauce. The Liberals ran a former ADQ MNA in the riding. The increase was very marginal however. Interestingly, many of the worse losses for the Liberals came in ridings with a high Anglo population, like in West Montreal, Pontiac, west Laval, Hull--Aylmer and in the Eastern Townships.

In Ontario, the Liberals gained in 7 seats. Two of those came in the Ottawa suburbs, perhaps civil servants worried about Tory job cuts. Strong campaigns in Kingston and in Guelph helped the Liberals hang on to those two marginal seats, increasing their vote to boot. Another strong campaign in Kitchener--Waterloo gave the Liberals a higher share of the vote, but they lost in another close election, a re-match from 2008. A collapse of the strong 2008 Green vote in Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound helped the Liberals increase there. And finally, the Liberals gained support in Sault Ste. Marie, where they ran the nephew of a former MP (with the same last name). In contrast, neighbouring Algoma--Manitoulin--Kaspuskasing saw on of the largest decreases for the Liberals, as well as much of the rest of Northern Ontario. Southwestern Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area were other hard hit ridings.

Western Canada was actually better for the Liberals in that their decreases were not as bad. In Manitoba, they gained in two seats. In Winnipeg North, they gained the most compared to 2008, with the popular Kevin Lamoureux who won the seat in a 2010 by-election. The Liberals also gained in Kildonan--St. Paul, where their 2008 candidate was dropped (but still remained on the ballot) due to controversial comments about 9/11. Hard not to gain from that.

In Saskatchewan, the Liberals gained marginally from their paltry 5% (4th place) performance in 2008 in the riding of Yorkton--Melville. All other ridings had losses, including a large loss of support in Desenthe--Missinippi--Churchill River where they NDP ran a strong candidate, taking much of the anti-Tory 2008 votes from the Liberals.

In Alberta, the Liberals had gains in 5 seats, three of which were in Calgary. Perhaps Calgary is moderating itself a bit, as evidenced by electing a moderate Muslim mayor in 2010? Elsewhere, the Liberals gained marginal support in Wild Rose (where they ran a judge who had made controversial comments about sexual assault) and in Medicine Hat, where they ran the mayor of Medicine Hat.

In B.C., the Liberals saw a gain in support in three ridings. Interestingly, two of those ridings were close races between the Tories and the NDP- which usually means the Liberal vote suffers due to strategic voting. These seats were Surrey North and Vancouver Island North, which were both close races in 2008 as well. The other seat the Liberals gained support in was Chilliwack--Fraser Canyon, where they ran a Chilliwack city councillor. The Liberals saw their biggest loss in the province in Esquimault--Juan de Fuca after popular Liberal MP Keith Martin retired, and opened the seat up to its traditional NDP-Tory roots.

Finally in Northern Canada, the Liberals saw a marginal gain in support in the Western Arctic (Northwest Territories) where they ran former Premier Joe Handley. Running a former Premier (Paul Okalik) in Nunavut however did not help them, where their vote went down by a fraction of a percent. The Liberals saw a large loss in the Yukon, where their MP Larry Bagnell went down in defeat. The gun registry, which the Liberals support, was very unpopular in this rural riding.

Many thanks again, to S. Smith of the U.S. Election Atlas Forum who made the map.

NDP change (2008-2011)

A few days ago, I posted the Conservative change in vote support between the 2008 and 2011 federal elections. My second installment shows the NDP change in support between those two same elections. On the map, green indicates ridings where the NDP gained in vote percentage (darker shades meaning a greater increase in the vote), while red ridings are where the NDP lost in vote percentage (darker red meaning a greater decrease in the vote).

So, what can be said about this map? Well, a lot of green certainly, attributed to the NDP's breakthrough in the 2011 race. This is most notable in Quebec, where most of the province is a darker shade of green. In not one single riding in Quebec did they lose in support.

In Atlantic Canada, the NDP suffered some losses, and some gains. Overall, they gained two seats in the region. In Newfoundland & Labrador, the NDP saw support losses in 4 of the 7 ridings, but actually gained one seat (St. John's South--Mount Pearl). 2008 was a very bad year for the Tories on "the Rock", thanks to then Premier Danny Williams' "Anything But Conservative" campaign. As discussed on the last map, the Tories made gains here in 2011, and it came at the expense of the NDP in many seats.

Nova Scotia was the only other Atlantic province to see NDP losses in support in 2011. The NDP saw a decrease in vote in 6 of the 11 ridings. The NDP government of Nova Scotia is somewhat unpopular, which may have hurt them in the province. But just like in Newfoundland, the NDP actually gained a seat in the province (Dartmouth--Cole Harbour).

In Ontario, just two ridings had the NDP lose support. Both were in Northern Ontario. One seat's decrease (Sault Ste. Marie) contributed to the NDP losing it to the Tories. The other riding to see the NDP's share of the vote go down was in Timmins--James Bay, which the party still kept. The gun registry (many Northern Ontario NDP MPs flip flopped on this issue) must have hurt the party in those two ridings, despite "the Soo" being mostly urban. It should also be noted that the gun registry didn't seem to hurt the party in any of the other Northern Ontario ridings. The ridings that the NDP gained the most came in the Greater Toronto Area, thanks to strong local campaigns in Scarborough--Rouge River, Davenport and Bramalea--Gore--Malton (the latter where the NDP lost by a few hundred votes).

In Western Canada, the NDP only saw a loss of support in some seats in Manitoba and in Nunavut. In Manitoba, the party only saw losses in three of the 14 ridings, but it was good enough to lose one seat (actually down two from 2008). All three ridings were in the north end of Winnipeg. The NDP saw the biggest decrease from 2008 in the riding Winnipeg North. This long time NDP seat was lost in a by-election last year to the popular Liberal MLA Kevin Lamoureux in a close race. He held on to the seat once again in the 2011 election in another close battle. The NDP lost another stronghold in neighbouring Elmwood--Transcona, a seat they held for over 30 years. Much debate has arisen as to why the NDP lost these seats. My theory is an unpopular provincial NDP government (at the time), and perhaps demographic changes.

As mentioned, the NDP also lost support in Nunavut. This is probably because they ran a lesser known candidate in a region where the person is more important than the party. Elsewhere in the west, NDP increases were modest to strong, with the highest increase in the riding of Desnethe--Missinippi--Churchill River, where the NDP went from a distant third to losing by less than 1,000 votes. This was again due to running a popular candidate in Lawrence Joseph, the former Chief of the Federation of Saskatchewan Indians in a riding with a high Native population.

Once again, thank you to S. Smith of the U.S. Election Atlas Forum who made the map.