Manitoba election prediction: PC landslide

Seat prediction map

Manitobans are heading to the polls today in what will be an historic provincial election. If all the polls are correct, then voters are set to elect a Progressive Conservative government in a landslide election, kicking out the governing NDP, which has run the province since 1999, winning four straight majority governments in the process.

Polls are suggesting the PCs are hovering around 50% in the popular vote, which would be their highest vote share since 1910. If they get a few points higher than that, it would be their highest vote share in the province's history. This means that the Tories will be winning seats they have never won before, some of them quite easily, like Brandon East, Interlake and Selkirk. The NDP meanwhile is polling in the mid-20s, which would be their worst result since 1988. The Liberals on the other hand are just looking to gain back relevancy. After winning just one seat and 8% of the vote in 2011, they are now polling in the mid-teens, and could see their best result since 1995. The Greens are also polling well, averaging at 8%, which would be their best result ever.

This has been an election of awful leaders. NDP Premier Greg Selinger is coming off of last year's controversial leadership election, which followed a caucus revolt. Selinger won the election by a narrow result, thanks in part to the backing of major unions in the province. Not only that, Selinger is carrying 17 years of governing baggage behind him. The man who will become Premier, PC leader Brian Pallister is carrying baggage of his own. Many see him as being too right wing for the province, and is currently embroiled in a scandal in where it was discovered he had been to Costa Rica 15 times since 2012, and had lied about his travels. As for Liberal leader Rana Bokhari, she has run a lacklustre campaign which included an awful debate performance. At the beginning of the campaign, the Liberals had been polling ahead of the NDP for second place, but have now fallen considerably behind. The only leader that seems to be popular is Green Party head, James Beddome, who will definitely benefit from a high protest vote this election.

 

Predictions

For my riding predictions, I have come up with a “rating” for each riding (safe, likely, lean or toss up), which rates how comfortable I am in my predictions for each seat. I've made these ratings by using recent regional poll numbers and comparing them to the last provincial election as well as an average result of the last provincial and federal elections (see maps below). In taking a look at both elections, I feel I have a way to identify any abnormal riding results, and account for this in my predictions. Where my numbers contradict each other in a riding, or where they show a close race, I've declared the seat a “toss up” and offered my gut prediction in that riding, based on its history and its candidates. I've also taken into consideration a couple of riding polls that have come out over the course of the campaign.

Overall, I am predicting a landslide Progressive Conservative victory, with the Tories winning 43 of the 57 seats in the legislature. This would be their biggest electoral win in the province's history. I am predicting that the governing NDP will be reduced to just 11 seats, which would be their worst election since 1966. And ss for the Liberals, I am predicting they will win three seats, their best total since 1995.

Polls are suggesting the Tories are winning about two-thirds of the vote in rural Manitoba, which means they will likely sweep all of rural southern Manitoba (including Brandon), leaving the NDP to their northern stronghold (though they could close Flin Flon to the Liberals). In Winnipeg, polls indicate that the Tories have at least a 15 point lead over the NDP, which will see the PCs win back their former suburban strongholds in the south and west ends, and eat into traditional NDP territory in the north and east of the city. This will reduce the NDP to their stronghold in the central and north central parts of the city. Meanwhile the Liberals should hold on to their lone seat of River Heights, and maybe pick up one or two more seats thanks to vote splits. The Greens may also win a seat or two. 

Here are my seat by seat ratings. Ridings are coloured in by how they voted in 2011. 

Seat by seat rating.

Ridings to watch

I've identified ten ridings as “toss ups” - ridings where my numbers have shown a close race. For each of these ridings I went with my gut (with detailed reasoning) as to how I believe they will go:

Concordia: This north Winnipeg riding is being defended by incumbent NDP MLA Matt Wiebe, who has represented the seat since 2009, when he took over the riding from its predecessor, former Premier Gary Doer. The seat has voted NDP in every election since it was created in 1981. Wiebe won the seat in 2011 by 35 points, and it is one of only five provincial ridings to go NDP in the last federal election. On paper it is a safe NDP seat, but with the amount of swing the polls are predicting, this riding could be in play. I'm still predicting the NDP to hold on though.

Elmwood: Right next door to Concordia is Elmwood, which is being defended by long-time NDP MLA Jim Maloway, who has held this seat from 1986 to 2008 and since 2011. This riding has also voted NDP (and its predecessor, the CCF) in every election since it was created in 1958. The result in the last election in this seat was relatively close though, with Maloway defeating his Tory opponent by 21 points. One glimmer of hope for the NDP is that they did win the transposed federal result here. However, my numbers show the PCs winning this seat in a close result, which is why I am predicting they will win it.

Flin Flon: This riding, located in northwestern Manitoba will see an interesting race, as its defending MLA Clarence Pettersen is running as an independent, after he lost the NDP nomination. Flin Flon has been an NDP seat since 1969, but Pettersen's candidacy is expected to split the NDP vote. In the federal election, the NDP won Flin Flon over the Liberals by a slim margin, suggesting the Liberals could be the party that has the best chance at benefiting from the split. The provincial Liberals are also polling better than the NDP in rural Manitoba. This is why I think they will win the seat.

Fort Garry-Riverview: The NDP won this central Winnipeg seat in 2011, but this should be a Green-PC race. Green Party leader James Beddome is running in this riding, and of the four party leaders, he has the highest approval ratings. The Greens are polling quite high in the city (around 10%) which is enough to put this riding in play. Without riding polling, Green Party targets are hard to predict, so it is hard to say whether Beddome will win this seat. I'd prefer to hedge my bets though, and go with the PCs here, who could come up the middle against a divided progressive vote.

Fort Rouge: This central Winnipeg seat is the riding where Liberal leader Rana Bokhari has chosen to run. A riding poll from the beginning of the campaign showed a three-way race with Bokhari ahead of the PC candidate by just two points. At that point in the campaign the Liberals were doing much better in province-wide and city-wide polling, but now they are doing much more poorly. It is entirely possible that this drop in Liberal fortunes has happened in Fort Rouge as well. The NDP is running a star candidate in First Nations musician Wab Kinew, and I predict that this split in the non-PC vote could cause the Tories to come up the middle and win this seat for the first time since 1969.

St. Johns: My numbers suggest a tight NDP win in this north-end riding, but what will make it hard for the New Democrats to keep this seat is the fact that incumbent MLA Gord Mackintosh has decided to retire, making this an open seat. This seat has been won by the NDP, and its predecessor the CCF in every election since it was created in 1958, and Mackintosh won the riding in 2011 by an impressive 44 point margin. Because of these factors, I believe the NDP will manage to hang on to this seat.

The Maples: This ethnically diverse riding in the northwest corner of Winnipeg has had a history of electing Liberals to the provincial government, but none since 1995. A rebound in Liberal fortunes suggests that they will be competitive there, but will it be enough for them to win? The NDP, which holds this riding, is hoping for a split in the anti-NDP vote in order to hold on to the riding. However, I believe the surging Tories will pick this up, thanks to a split in the anti-PC vote, winning this riding for the first time ever.

Thompson: Way up in the north of the province is the riding of Thompson, which has been held by the NDP's Steve Ashton (who had challenged NDP leader Greg Selinger in last year's leadership election, following a caucus revolt) since 1981. The riding has only voted for the Tories once in its existence, in 1977. However, my numbers suggest that this riding may be in play. It is hard to fathom the PCs winning this seat though, considering Ashton won it by 40 points in 2011, and his daughter, Nikki won Thompson in last year's federal election. Because of this, I think the NDP will hold on to the riding.

Tyndall Park: The Liberals came a close second in this northwest Winnipeg seat in the last election, losing to the NDP's Ted Marcelino by a 10 point margin. Because of this, my numbers are suggesting a narrow Liberal win here. Though, with their faltering campaign, it is not a given, and either the NDP or the PCs might be able to win it as a result. Though, I think I will trust my numbers and predict a Liberal win here.

Wolseley: This central Winnipeg seat saw the Green's best result in 2011, when their leader, James Beddome won 20% of the vote, coming in second place. Beddome chose to run in Fort Garry-Riverview though, but the Greens are still running a star candidate in environmentalist David Nickarz in this riding. NDP MLA Rob Altemeyer defeated Beddome by a 40 point margin in 2011, a difference that will be very hard for Nickarz to overcome. It is hard to predict insurgent Green campaigns, and so I will play it safe and predict an NDP hold here.

Outlook

While losing will obviously be bad news for the NDP, it will mean finally getting rid of Selinger, and replacing him with a stronger leader. Also, beating out the Liberals for second place would be a minor victory, as we know from the results of the federal election, Manitobans would be quite willing to vote Liberal with the right leader, and a third place finish for the NDP would be a disaster for them.

As for the Tories, many people are suggesting it could be a “one and done” government for the party, due to weaknesses of Brian Pallister. He is being likened to former PC Premier Stirling Lyon who only lasted one term, before voters ditched his government in 1981. But, we may be getting ahead of ourselves here.

For the Liberals, they would be wise to ditch Bokhari as leader, though she will want to hang on if they make any seat gains. However, she will probably have to keep her seat first!

For those who want to follow the results, the polls close at 8pm Central Time, which is 9pm Eastern.

Swingometer based prediction of the Saskatchewan election

Overall prediction. Green = Saskatchewan Party; Orange = NDP

Voters in Saskatchewan are heading to the polls today in the 28^th general election in the province's history. The governing conservative “Saskatchewan Party” (Sask Party for short), buoyed by the province's continued economic boom hopes to maintain their massive majority in the province's Legislative Assembly. The Sask Party, under the leadership of Premier Brad Wall has led the province since 2007, when they ousted the New Democratic Party (NDP), who had in turn ruled the province prior to that since 1991.

Background

The last provincial election in 2011 saw the Saskatchewan Party win a landslide majority, winning 49 seats to the NDP's nine. The large thumping was largest landslide since 1982, and the Sask Party's 64% share of the popular vote was the highest in the province's history. The province had fallen in love with Brad Wall, and were enjoying the province's new found economic prosperity. Since then, Wall has become the poster boy of conservatism in Canada, especially since the defeat of Prime Minister Harper last fall, and the defeat of countless conservative provincial governments across the country. Every other province is now led by either a Liberal or an NDP Premier (though the Liberals in BC are notably right-of-centre).

Wall's popularity has made it difficult for the NDP to gain any traction in opposition. Their defeat in 2011 forced its leader, Dwain Lingenfelter to resign, which was helped by the fact that he lost his Regina Doulgas Park seat. Lingenfelter would be replaced as leader by Saskatoon Massey Place MLA Cam Broten, who has tried to renew the party, perhaps exemplified by a new swanky retro looking logo. However, the party has lingered in the polls in the mid 30s for much of the last four years, nowhere close to the Sask Party which has not dipped under 50% since the last election. All the polls now show the Sask Party to be leading the NDP at around 60% to 30%.

Since 2003, the province has only elected members of either the right wing Saskatchewan Party and the left wing NDP. The provincial Liberals have been nearly dead in the water since last winning a few seats in 1999. In the least election, the Liberals ran just nine candidates in the 58 seat legislature, and won a grand total of 0.6% of the vote. The Greens were the third party in that election. They ran a full slate of candidates, winning nearly 3% of the province wide vote. But for the Greens, Saskatchewan's brand of prairie populism is an anathema to the party.

While the Liberal brand is on the rise across the country, thanks to the federal Liberals still enjoying a honeymoon period, the provincial Liberals in Saskatchewan have failed to really capitalize on this. The party is running a full slate in this election, but most polls show them in mid-single digits, often behind the Greens. It is unlikely the Liberals will win a seat, though their leader, Darrin Lamoureux is running in a brand new riding and is not facing any incumbents. In all likelihood though, this election will see all of its seats go to either the Sask Party or the NDP. 

The Swingometer! Click to enlarge.

The Swingometer

Considering Saskatchewan is basically a two-party province, a fun way to make a rough prediction of the election outcome is to use what is called a “swingometrer”, something that viewers of British elections might be familiar with. A swingometer shows the uniform swing needed for a particular party to win a seat. My swingometer shows the two-party swing needed from the result of the 2011 election. The two-party swing is calculated as the average percentage point change each of the two parties has to shift in a particular seat for the opposing party to win it.

As fun as swingometers are, this election will likely not be all that fun to use it. All four polls that have come out just before the election show a very small swing in the NDP's favour from the result of the last election. The most NDP friendly of these polls was conducted by Mainstreet Research, which showed a 1.6% swing from the last election (it gave the NDP 31%, down 1% from the last election and the Saskatchewan Party 60%, down 4.3% from the 64.3% they won in 2011 – giving a swing to the NDP of 1.6%). This swing would net the NDP just one extra seat (Saskatoon Fairview), albeit just barely. The other three polls are less favourable to the NDP, showing even smaller swings in their direction. Insights West's poll showed the smallest swing, just 0.1% to the NDP. Except for the Mainstreet poll, none of the other pollsters show a swing that would be large enough for the NDP to gain any seats. Average the four polls, and the swingometer tells us that this election will produce an exact status quo result. Due to the recent seat redistribution, this would give the Saskatchewan Party two extra seats from their 2011 result (51 seats) and the NDP one extra seat (for a total of ten).

To win a majority government, the NDP would need a 17.4% uniform swing in their favour, which would give them the 31^st riding on the swingometer, Saskatchewan Rivers. The NDP would need a 22.2% swing to win the riding of Yorkton, which is the province's best bellwether, which has voted for the winning party since 1964. For Brad Wall to go down in defeat, the NDP would need a uniform swing of 31.6% to claim his riding of Swift Current. All this is a moot though, as the NDP is not going to come close to winning a majority.

So, are we headed for the status quo? Maybe. But, the pollsters are showing different regional swings, which might put some seats in play. Also keeping in mind that the swingometer is a measure of uniform swing, and we all know that in reality, ridings do not swing in tandem. If we take a look at the regional breakdowns in the recent polls, we see that most of the swing in the NDP's favour is coming from Regina. An average of three regional polls suggests a 3.7% swing to the NDP in the province's capital. This would be enough to claim the riding of Regina Douglas Park (2.5% swing needed), the seat that former NDP leader Dwain Lingenfelter lost to the Sask Party's Russ Marchuk in 2011. Marchuk will not be running for re-election, and redistribution has made the seat much more NDP friendly, so a win there would not be unexpected for the New Democrats.

Seats to watch

Outside of Regina Douglas Park, none of the regional polls suggest any other seats will change hands using the swingometer. Of course, that's not to say that none will. Here are my picks for seats that could change hands (other than Regina Douglas Park):

- Moose Jaw Wakamow: This riding was won by the Saskatchewan Party in 2011, but boundary changes have made it a notional NDP seat. The Sask Party has the incumbency advantage, and the NDP is not running the same candidate as they did in 2011, so this is a possible “pick-up” for the governing party, albeit just a notional one. The Saskatchewan Party only needs a 0.7% swing to win this seat.

- Saskatoon Fairview: Using the swingometer, this is the NDP's #1 target. They would only need a 1.6% swing to claim the seat. However, regional polls in Saskatoon suggest the New Democrats may not even see a swing in their favour in the city. Making it harder for the NDP is they are up against Jennifer Campeau, the minister of Central Services, who is the incumbent.

- Prince Albert Northcote: On the swingometer, this is the next seat on the NDP's target list after Saskatoon Fairview. The Sask Party won it in a close race in 2011. The NDP is not running the same candidate however, so it might be hard to defeat the Sask Party incumbent. The NDP needs a swing of 1.8% to win it.

- Regina Coronation Park: Two of the three regional polls in Regina give the NDP a large enough swing to pick up this seat, which the New Democrats would need 4.8% swing to pick up. They would have to defeat cabinet minister Mark Docherty to claim it though.

Wild card: Regina Pasqua: This brand new riding in the southwest corner of Regina is, on paper a somewhat safe Saskatchewan Party seat. The Sask Party would have won it with 56% of the vote in 2011 had the riding existed then. However as it is a new seat, they have no incumbent in the race. And this is the riding where Liberal leader Darrin Lamoureux is running. Considering the Liberals are polling in the upper lower digits in Regina though, it is unlikely that they will win it.

Outlook

Using my swingometer, and looking at the regional swings in recent polls, I predict that the Saskatchewan Party will win a landslide majority, winning 50 seats to the NDP's 11. My swingometer-based prediction is that the NDP will win one more seat than they would have in 2011 on the new boundaries (Regina Douglas Park).

If the polls are correct, then we are looking at a very boring election, with very few – if any – ridings changing hands. Brad Wall, the most popular premier in the country is destined for his third straight majority. Polls close at 8pm Central Standard Time (10pm Eastern Daylight Time).

Seat by seat prediction (ridings coloured by how they would have voted in 2011 on the new boundaries):

British Columbia provincial election projection maps

Today is the day of the B.C. provincial election, and unfortunately, unlike past provincial elections, I had not been doing routine projection. However, I couldn’t let the election period go by without doing some sort of projection, so I have crunched the most recent polls to come up with a purely math based projection to see how the results tonight may turnout. In previous projections, I have liked to factor in what I like to call “qualitative” data- that is taking a look at what people are saying about various districts to get a sense of how they may differ from normal trends. In my math-based projection, I have ignored this completely. For example, while I believe the Greens will win the riding of Oak Bay-Gordon Head, my math based projection shows otherwise, because I have purposely not taken into consideration local factors this time. I want to be able to show a transparent projection this time.

For my projection, I have taken a look at the most recent polls from Justason, Ipsos-Reid, Forum Research, Hill & Knowlton and Angus Reid. These are the only pollsters that had regional crosstabs. The most common regional breakdowns used are “Metro Vancouver”, “Vancouver Island” and “Interior”. So, I have taken an average of the regional breakdowns for those three areas (taking out the polls that don’t use those regional breakdowns) and looked for the difference between the 2009 provincial election results in those regions and the average:

	Liberal avg.(change from 2009)	NDP avg. (change from 2009)	Green avg. (change from 2009)	Cons avg. (change from 2009)	Other avg. (change from 2009)
Interior	38 (-8.8)	38.5 (-0.4)	10.5 (+2.6)	9 (+4.0)	5 (+3.5)
Vancouver Island	29.2 (-9.5)	44.4 (-5.6)	18.4 (+8.0)	7 (+6.7)	1.8 (+1.0)
Metro Vancouver	34.5 (-13.9)	47.55 (+6.4)	9.6 (+2.2)	5.45 (+4.8)	2.8 (+0.6)

Next, I factored in these swings to each riding in their respected three regions. For the Liberals and the NDP, I also factored in the trend between the 2005 and 2009 elections. So, if a riding is trending Liberal, that riding will not see as adverse swing as a riding that is trending NDP (and vise vera). Whatever percentage I got from this, I used in my projection. It’s not the best way of doing it, but at least it will give a good idea of how the election will shape up.

Here is the map:

Math based projection

For the record, this gives us 53 NDP seats, 30 Liberals and 2 Independents. Seats that were decided within 5% include Boundary-Similkameen, Cariboo-Chilcotin, Chilliwack, Kamloops-North Thompson, Comox Valley, Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Langley, North Vancouver-Lonsdale, Port Moody-Coquitlam, Surrey-Panorama, Peace River North and Vancouver-Langara. It is safe to say that most of these ridings will be one’s to watch tonight. The two independent seats are Delta South and Peace River North. Delta South was won by an Independent last election, and the Independent who did quite well in Peace River North in 2009 is running again.

But of course, using math is not the only way to make an election projection. I also scoured the internet last night to find what other projectors were saying. I compiled the results, and made another map based on their cumulative projections. I took a look at electionpredictions.org, The Tye, Teddy Boragina, BC Iconoclast, threehundredeight.com, Global TV, tooclosetocall.ca and BC2013.com. It should be noted that some of these projectors may have made predictions this morning that may affect the map. But, it does serve as another useful tool in predicting the election. Because I used 8 predictors, there were several ridings that were evenly split in terms of which party was projected to win. These were Prince George-Valemount (4 NDP, 4 Liberal), Cariboo North (3 Independent, 3 Liberal, 1 NDP, 1 too close to call), Chilliwack (4 NDP, 4 Liberal), Oak Bay-Gordon Head (3 NDP, 3 Green, 1 Liberal, 1 too close to call) and Vancouver-Langara (4 NDP, 4 Liberal). My math based projection has these ridings going the following:

*Prince George-Valemount: Liberal (43%-36%)

*Cariboo North: NDP (50%-36%) – the sitting MLA, an independent and former NDPer complicates things.

*Chilliwack: NDP (36%-32%)

*Oak Bay-Gordon Head: NDP (39%-37%) – a strong Green campaign complicates things

*Vancouver-Langara: Liberal (45%-41%)

Aggregate prediction map from 8 predictors

The cumulative projections also differ from my projection in a number of ridings. In addition to the ties, these include Vernon-Monashee (I have going Liberal), Chilliwack-Hope (I have going Liberal, but the riding does have an NDP MLA thanks to a by-election), Comox Valley (I have going Liberal) and Parksville-Qualicum (I have going Liberal). Really, there is not much difference, but it does look like other projectors are slightly more NDP-friendly in terms of their predictions. In looking at the cumulative results, there are 5 ties, 2 ridings to go independent, 25 Liberal and 53 New Democrat seats. Oh, and for the record on both these maps, Liberal Premier Christy Clark loses her seat. 

Polls will be closing at 8PM Pacific tonight (11pm). Expect some commentary from me on my Twitter feed. I just hope it doesn’t go too late into the night!

Quebec election - final prediction and mini guide

Final projection

It is election day in Quebec, and it is time for my final prediction. If the polls are to believed, this race is going to be a three way between the separatist Parti Quebecois, the governing Liberals and the upstart centre-right Coalition Avenir du Quebec. For the last week or so of the campaign though, it looks like the PQ will win the election. But the question will be if they get a majority, and whether or not the CAQ can surpass the Liberals to form opposition.

For my final prediction, I analyzed the regional breakdowns of the final Leger Poll as well as the mostrecent Forum Research poll I had available to me (they came out with a new one just a few hours ago, which I will have to ignore). I have also looked at a number of individual riding polls, riding history, and a little gut instinct to come up with my numbers. And the conclusion I came to is that the PQ will indeed win a majority government, but by just 2 seats. The Liberals will narrowly get official opposition with 33 seats, which would be their worst showing since 1976. Also, the Liberals are set to get a record low in terms of share of popular vote. Anything less than 33% of the vote will do that, and they have been polling lower than 30% routinely. While the PQ may win the election, they will probably go down in their vote share as well from the previous election, and votes are likely to be siphoned off to the CAQ. 

Here are my riding by riding numbers:

(Ridings projected to be decided by less than 3% of the vote are shaded in grey)

Riding	PLQ	PQ	CAQ	QS	PVQ	ON	Oth	Winning candidate
Abitibi-Est	31	36	24	5	2	2	-	Elizabeth Larouche
Abitibi-Ouest	14	49	26	8	-	3	-	Francois Gendron
Acadie	54	16	18	11	-	1	-	Christine St-Pierre
Anou—Louis-Riel	35	30	22	10	-	2	1	Lise Theriault
Argenteuil	27	37	25	5	4	2	-	Roland Richer
Arthabaska	29	26	34	5	3	2	1	Sylvie Roy
Beauce-Nord	24	7	57	5	3	1	3	Andre Spenard
Beauce-Sud	34	9	51	4	-	1	1	Richard Savoie
Beauharnois	18	43	26	5	3	3	2	Guy Leclair
Bellechasse	30	14	42	6	-	-	3	Christian Levesque
Berthier	11	36	41	6	4	2	0	Francois Benjamin
Bertrand	19	42	27	6	4	2	0	Claude Cousineau
Blainville	16	35	38	5	4	2	0	Daniel Ratthe
Bonaventure	37	45	13	3	-	2	-	Sylvain Roy
Borduas	17	48	20	7	4	3	1	Pierre Duchesne
Bourassa-Sauve	44	22	22	9	2	1	-	Rita de Santis
Bourget	14	43	23	10	5	3	2	Maka Kotto
Brome—Missisquoi	32	26	27	6	4	2	3	Pierre Paradis
Chambly	16	41	30	6	4	2	1	Bertrand St-Arnaud
Champlain	20	35	37	5	-	2	1	Pierre Jackson
Chapleau	41	20	28	5	5	1	0	Marc Carriere
Charlesbourg	32	21	37	6	-	1	3	Denise Trudel
Charlevoix—Cote-de-Beaupre	24	41	27	5	-	2	1	Pauline Marois
Chateauguay	29	34	25	5	4	2	1	Maryse Perreault
Chauveau	24	17	49	6	-	1	3	Gerard Deltell
Chicoutimi	24	44	23	7	-	2	0	Stephane Bedard
Chomedey	50	19	21	5	3	1	1	Guy Ouellette
Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere	21	17	53	6	2	-	1	Marc Picard
Cote-du-Sud	40	18	35	5	-	1	1	Robert Mortin
Cremazie	24	39	19	12	4	2	-	Diane De Courcy
D'Arcy-McGee	75	3	14	7	-	-	1	Lawrence Bergman
Deux-Montagnes	17	40	31	5	5	2	-	Daniel Goyer
Drummond—Bois-Francs	26	31	32	7	-	2	2	Sebastien Schneeberger
Dubuc	24	39	27	6	-	3	1	Jean-Marie Claveau
Duplessis	20	47	24	6	-	2	1	Lorraine Richard
Fabre	30	34	24	5	4	2	1	Francois-Gycelain Rocque
Gaspe	28	52	14	4	-	2	-	Gaetan Lelievre
Gatineau	41	21	23	7	5	2	1	Stephanie Vallee
Gouin	9	36	12	39	4	-	0	Francoise David
Granby	21	25	44	7	-	1	2	Francois Bonnardel
Groulx	20	34	35	5	4	2	0	Helene Daneault
Hochelaga—Maisonneuve	5	48	19	18	5	3	2	Carole Poirier
Hull	34	25	17	12	7	2	3	Maryse Gaudreault
Huntingdon	31	21	36	6	3	1	2	Claire Isabelle
Iberville	26	38	26	4	4	2	-	Marie Bouille
Iles-de-la-Madeleine	39	46	9	4	-	2	-	Jeannie Richard
Jacques-Cartier	64	4	15	7	9	0	1	Geoffrey Kelley
Jean-Lesage	25	28	33	9	-	2	3	Johanne Lapointe
Jeanne-Mance—Viger	58	10	22	8	-	1	1	Filomena Rotiroti
Jean-Talon	40	27	23	7	-	2	1	Yves Bolduc
Johnson	21	33	37	6	-	2	1	Stephane Legault
Joliette	14	39	35	8	-	2	2	Veronique Hivon
Jonquiere	18	46	26	6	-	2	2	Sylvain Gaudreault
Labelle	14	47	26	6	4	3	-	Sylvain Page
Lac-Saint-Jean	15	54	19	5	3	3	1	Alexandre Clouthier
LaFontaine	53	14	18	8	4	1	2	Marc Tanguay
La Peltrie	28	15	49	6	-	1	1	Eric Caire
La Piniere	44	21	22	6	4	1	2	Fatima Houda-Pepin
Laporte	35	32	23	7	-	2	1	Nicole Menard
La Prairie	23	37	27	5	3	2	2	Pierre Langlois
L'Assomption	12	32	44	6	4	2	-	Francois Legault
Laurier—Dorion	29	31	11	19	6	2	2	Badiona Bazin
Laval-des-Rapides	29	36	23	6	4	2	0	Leo Bureau-Blouin
Laviolette	43	21	28	6	-	1	1	Julie Boulet
Levis	29	18	39	7	-	1	6	Christian Dube
Lotbiniere—Frontenac	36	21	38	6	-	-	-	Martin Caron
Louis-Hebert	37	25	29	4	-	2	3	Sam Hamad
Marguerite-Bourgeoys	54	16	19	9	-	1	1	Robert Poeti
Marie-Victorin	13	48	24	7	4	3	1	Bernard Drainville
Marquette	42	21	21	8	7	1	-	Francois Ouimet
Maskinonge	26	27	37	5	1	2	2	Jean Damphousse
Masson	7	46	34	5	4	3	1	Diane Hamelin
Matane—Matapedia	19	55	15	5	2	3	1	Pascal Berube
Megantic	30	33	22	7	-	2	1	Gloriane Blais
Mercier	5	29	15	44	5	2	-	Amir Khadir
Mille-Iles	32	33	23	5	4	2	1	Robert Carrier
Mirabel	11	40	41	5	-	2	1	Sylvie d'Amours
Montarville	25	34	29	5	4	2	1	Monique Richard
Montmorency	26	22	44	4	-	1	3	Michelyne St-Laurent
Mont-Royal	60	7	16	10	6	0	1	Pierre Arcand
Nelligan	57	9	18	7	7	1	1	Yolande James
Nicolet—Becancour	20	23	29	-	-	28	1	Donald Martel
Notre-Dame-de-Grace	53	8	15	7	16	0	1	Kathleen Weil
Orford	36	29	21	8	4	2	0	Pierre Reid
Outremont	40	22	17	18	-	1	2	Raymond Bachand
Papineau	30	34	25	8	-	2	2	Jean-Francois Primeau
Pointe-aux-Trembles	9	53	24	9	-	3	2	Nicole Leger
Pontiac	53	11	21	7	6	1	1	Charlotte L'Ecuyer
Portneuf	26	17	49	6	-	1	1	Jacques Marcotte
Rene-Levesque	12	52	27	6	-	3	-	Marjolain Dufour
Repentigny	17	41	34	6	-	2	-	Scott McKay
Richelieu	21	48	21	7	-	3	-	Elaine Zakaib
Richmond	32	36	21	6	3	2	0	Etienne-Alexis Boucher
Rimouski	21	48	19	7	1	3	1	Irvin Pelletier
Riviere-du-Loup—Temiscouata	32	36	24	4	2	1	1	Michel Lagace
Robert-Baldwin	65	3	17	8	6	0	1	Pierre Marsan
Roberval	27	41	25	5	-	2	-	Denis Trottier
Rosemont	16	46	19	14	-	3	2	Jean-Francois Lisee
Rousseau	16	49	24	7	-	3	1	Nicolas Marceau
Rouyn-Noranda—Temiscamingue	26	31	30	9	2	2	-	Gilles Chapadeau
Saint-Francois	31	41	16	6	3	2	1	Rejean Hebert
Saint-Henri—Sainte-Anne	33	34	17	13	-	2	1	Sophie Stanke
Saint-Hyacinthe	23	39	26	7	-	2	3	Emilien Pelletier
Saint-Jean	24	39	26	6	-	2	3	Dave Turcotte
Saint-Jerome	13	41	35	5	4	2	-	Gilles Robert
Saint-Laurent	47	13	21	11	6	1	1	Jean-Marc Fournier
Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques	12	43	18	22	-	2	3	Daniel Breton
Saint-Maurice	24	41	27	5	-	2	1	Luc Trudel
Sainte-Rose	27	36	27	7	-	2	1	Suzanne Proulx
Sanguinet	14	45	31	5	-	3	2	Alain Therrien
Sherbrooke	36	36	13	9	4	2	1	Serge Cardin
Soulanges	31	30	30	6	-	2	1	Lucie Charlebois
Taillon	17	42	25	7	4	3	2	Marie Malavoy
Taschereau	24	38	20	14	-	2	2	Agnes Maltais
Terrebonne	10	42	35	6	4	3	0	Mathieu Traversy
Trois-Rivieres	30	35	23	8	-	2	2	Djemila Benhabib
Ungava	21	41	27	9	-	2	-	Luc Ferland
Vachon	9	54	20	8	4	4	1	Martine Ouellet
Vanier-Les Rivieres	29	19	43	6	-	1	2	Sylvain Levesque
Vaudreuil	38	27	22	5	5	2	1	Yvon Marcoux
Vercheres	10	49	31	6	-	3	1	Stephane Bergeron
Verdun	32	32	16	11	6	2	1	Henri-Francois Gautrin
Viau	43	21	19	11	5	1	-	Emmanuel Dubourg
Vimont	30	34	26	7	-	2	1	Linda Tousignant
Westmount—Saint-Louis	60	6	16	9	8	0	1	Jacques Chagnon

 

"The Toss ups"

There are a lot of toss up ridings, so I will only touch up on the few that I have figured will have the top two parties within 3%. But, with so many variables and likely scenarios in place, these are really just a  random set of "toss ups":

Blainville

This Montreal suburban riding has a CAQ incumbent, which one might think would automatically make this a likely CAQ win, but the incumbent, Daniel Ratthe was elected as a PQiste and then switched parties. It wasn't the worst decision for Ratthe though, as this riding went for the CAQ's predecessor the ADQ by 9 points in 2007. And 2012 is looking a lot like 2007. And so, I picked Ratthe to win this race.

Champlain

This Mauricie riding went ADQ in 2007 by 14 points. However, the MNA crossed the aisle to join the Liberals and was subsequently defeated by the PQ in 2008. Even without an incumbent, the ADQ did fairly well getting 22% of the vote that election. I expect them to pick this up.

Drummond-Bois Francs

This Central Quebec riding is brand new, having been created out of Drummond and Richmond. The redistributed results from show the Liberals won 40%, the PQ with 32% and the ADQ with 25%. However, there is no incumbent running in this riding, and the CAQ candidate is a former ADQ MNA. With the right swing, the CAQ should pick up this seat.

Gouin

Now to the Island of Montreal, one of the more exciting races will be to see if Quebec Solidaire co-leader Francoise David will be able to win the party's second riding. With the way the party is polling on the island, they should be able to pick this seat up. And since they are targeting this seat, they are likely to win this by even more than I projected.

Groulx
This is another suburban Montreal riding that will be one to watch. It is an open seat that the PQ won by just 400 votes last election. However, the CAQ has a shot at winning the seat, which the ADQ won by 9 points in 2007. However, their MNA from that election is running for the Liberals. Despite that, this will be a CAQ-PQ race that I think the CAQ will prevail in.

Laporte

The south shore will also see a lot of fierce battles, including this one in Laporte. The Liberals are in danger of losing this seat which they have held since 1981.This area has been trending to the PQ over the years, and this year might be the year they finally win it back. However, I don't think the 16 point deficit they face will be enough to pick it up. 

Laurier-Dorion

This riding on the Island of Montreal is usually a safe Liberal seat. However, the PQ did manage to win the riding in a 2004 by-election, only to lose it again in the 2007 general. With the Liberals really tanking in Montreal though, I feel the PQ should be able to pick this seat up.

Lotbiniere-Frotenac

This is another new riding, located in the conservative Chaudiere-Appalaches region. The redistributed results from 2008 showed the Liberals getting 48% of the votes here and the ADQ in second with 29%. Will that be enough of a deficit for the CAQ to over come? I think so. 

Megantic

This is another new riding, nestled in the Eastern Townships on the US border. The Liberals would have won this seat over the PQ by 8 points according to the redistributed results from 2008. The area has never voted for the PQ before, however, but 8 points is not much to overcome. I believe the PQ will make history in this riding by winning it for the first time ever.

Mille-Isles

The Liberal incumbent is facing off against former BQ MP Robert Carrier who is running for the PQ in this Laval riding. Redistribution made this seat safer for the Liberals, but at this point no gerrymandering would be possible to help the Liberals in some areas. I believe Carrier should be able to win this seat.

Mirabel

This exurban riding west of Montreal seems like prime territory for the CAQ. The ADQ won the seat by 10 points in 2007, only to lose in 2008 by 25%. However, I think the CAQ should be able to pick this off from the PQ.

Nicolet-Becancour

This is another must-watch riding located on the south shore of the St. Lawrence half way between Montreal and Quebec City. This is a must watch race because it is the only realistic chance for the Option Nationale party to win a seat. Their leader, Jean-Martin Aussant is running in the riding and he also happens to be the incumbent MNA, having previously been elected as a PQiste. The ON is an orthodox separatist party that sees their victory as being a mandate for sovereignty. A riding specific poll showed Aussant with a good chance of winning, being behind the CAQ by 3 points. With that poll being the only reliable way of knowing how much his support is, I have no choice but to base my prediction on it. I believe the CAQ will in it in a close one.

Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue

The Liberals may be the incumbent party in this northern Quebec riding, but the numbers suggest this race will be between the CAQ and the PQ. The Liberal incumbent is not even running again. The ADQ never won this seat, but their 17% showing in 2008 was very strong for the party in that election, especially with no incumbency advantage. The party only won 27% in the previous election. It's tough to say how well the CAQ will do here, so the safe bet is on the PQ.

Saint Henri-Sainte Anne

This Montreal riding has gone Liberal in every election since 1981, but the PQ have been inching ever closer to getting it back. Having only lost the seat by 9 points in 2008, they are poised to win the seat for the first time since 1976. It will be close, but I think with declining fortunes, the PQ will win here.

Sherbrooke

Possibly the most important race to watch will be Sherbrooke, the Premier's riding. Somehow Charest has been able to win this seat over and over again, even as a federal Tory in 1993, when he was one of only two members of his party to get elected. Charest has had many scares, and this election will be his toughest. There have been three riding polls conducted here, and he trailed in all three. He has been closing the gap though. The first poll showed a 15 point disadvantage. The second showed a 13 point defeat, while the most recent showed a 2 point loss. My model shows the race as a tie. I am not sure if the most recent poll is an outlier or indicative of a large swing, but I believe the safest bet here is to call a PQ win, with Premier Charest being ousted.

Soulanges

My model shows this riding to have all three major parties within 1 point of each other. The CAQ probably wont win the seat though, as the ADQ was never able to win the seat. The PQ only lost the riding by 9 points in 2008, so they have a good shot to win the seat. However, I think the Liberals will probably eke this one out.

Verdun

On the surface, Verdun appears to be a safe Liberal seat. It has never voted for the PQ. However, this election may be very close there. The Liberals are down massively in Montreal, and their 13 point victory here in 2008 may get erased. The PQ are running a heavy weight in former MP Thiery St-Cyr. In the end though, history is on the Liberal's side, and they are the safe bet at retaining this seat.

Whew!

To wrap up this post, I thought I would post two maps to help you out as you follow the election this evening. The first map just labels each riding, while the second map is the redistributed results of the 2008 election with the current riding boundaries. Enjoy!

Oh, and polls close at 8pm. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter as I comment on the election results.

Quebec's 125 ridings

2008 redistributed election results