Sunday, February 26, 2012

My riding boundary proposal for Toronto

It's now time for my third installment of my personal federal redistricting proposals following the release of the 2011 Canadian Census earlier this month. So far I have mapped Ottawa and Winnipeg, and now it's time for Toronto, Canada's largest city.

Toronto proper has been growing more slowly than the national average, because most of the city has been urbanized. However, the city is still growing in places like Scarborough where new developments are still being built, and along the waterfront, which is experiencing a large population boom thanks to new condominiums being built.

Toronto presently has 22 and half ridings (one riding extends into neighbouring Pickering). Its growth has entitled the city to 24 ridings, meaning one and a half new ridings within the city.

I have decided in my proposal to keep the former cities of Etobicoke and Scarborough together, and not make any ridings cross into the rest of the city. This is how it's been for quite some time, and I decided there was no reason to change this, although the commission may do so. Etobicoke would get 3 seats, and Scarborough would get 6 (up from the 5.5 ridings it has now). This puts the average Etobicoke riding at 116,000 people while the average riding in Scarborough will be at about 104,000. If this is not desirable, then some boundary crossing would have to occur. The rest of Toronto's average riding size will be between those two numbers, at 109,000.

My proposed ridings:

Trinity—Spadina: At 145,000, Trinity—Spadina is the most populous in the city, thanks to many new condominium developments being built. To cut the riding down to size, I lopped off the northern part of the riding. The northern border I propose follows College to Grace to Harbord. This gives the riding a nice size of 106,000. The rest I transferred to the riding of St. Paul's.

St. Paul's: St. Paul's has 116,000 people, just over the Toronto quotient of 109,000. However, if you add the bits taken from Trinity—Spadina, it becomes much larger. To fix this, I have removed the part of the riding east of Yonge Street as well as a small part west of Oakwood and south of Vaugahn Rd. The latter was transferred to Davenport riding, which is currently under populated. The former will be transferred to the new riding of Don Valley South. These changes have resulted in the riding being at a population of 111,000.

Don Valley South: This is a new riding I am proposing to be cut out of present day Don Valley West, Toronto Centre, and St. Paul's. The riding consists mostly of Toronto's older affluent neighbourhoods, such as Rosedale, Leaside, Moore Park and Davisville. I thought it would be a good idea to put these areas in one riding because they are a community of interest. The riding would also include the more eclectic neighbourhoods of Thorncliffe Park and The Annex. It would have a population of 108,000. I have named it Don Valley South, because my plan calls for three Don Valley ridings, and this is the most southerly of the three. Plus, its entire eastern boundary is the Don River.

Davenport: At 102,000 people, Davenport is the least populous in the city, and is the only riding in the city to have experienced a loss in population between 2006 and 2011. As mentioned earlier, I have transferred the Oakwood-Vaughan neighbourhood (south of Vaughan Rd and west of Oakwood) to Danveport. This gives the riding a population of 107,000.

Toronto Centre: Toronto Centre is also over populated, with a population of 130,000 people. It needs to be cut down to size. My recommendation is to lop off everything north of Bloor in the riding. This is the riding's cultural dividing line, so it makes for a good border. The south part of the riding is more working class compared to the more affluent north. The north would go to the new riding of Don Valley South. This gives the riding a population of 106,000.

Don Valley Centre: Carved mostly from Don Valley West is my proposed riding of Don Valley Centre. The riding would be centred on the Don Mills area, and would be bounded on the north by the 401, on the west by Yonge St, on the south by Eglinton, and on the east by the Don Valley Parkway. The riding would also include Victoria Park Village, east of the DVP to ensure the population is even. The population would be 108,000. I called it “Don Valley Centre” as it's in the middle of the three porposed Don Valley riding, and it straddles the Don River. Another possible name for the riding would be “Don Mills”.

Parkdale—High Park: At 105,000, Parkdale—High Park is slightly smaller than ideal, and with neighbouring York South—Weston larger than ideal, I shifted the northern boundary of Parkdale—High Park north to the green space area north of St. Clair, east of Jane. This unites Runnymede Park with the neighbourhood of Runnymede. This boosts the riding's population to 110,000.

York South—Weston: The only change to York South—Weston is the aforementioned alteration with Parkdale—High Park. This brings the population down from about 117,000 to 111,000.

Eglinton—Lawrence: At 113,000 Eglinton—Lawrence is only slightly bigger than the Toronto average, so I opted to make no changes.

York West: I have only proposed a small change in York West's boundary. I have moved its Sheppard Ave boundary down to the Downsview Dells. This is a more natural boundary, as that area was previously isolated from the rest of York Centre, where it is currently. This brings the population up from 108,000 to 113,000. This may seem unnecessary, but it was also needed to reduce the population of York Centre, without altering too many ridings.

York Centre: With 118,000, York Centre needs to lose population. I have decided to just make a small change in its border with York West, which I just mentioned. This brings the population down to about 111,000.

Willowdale: At present, Willowdale is over populated with a population of 140,000. It needs to lose a lot of people. I have moved the eastern boundary of the riding back to Bayview Ave to Finch Ave to the Don River. The riding loses Hillcrest Village and Bayview Woods to my proposed riding of DonValley North. This brings the population down to 111,000 people.

Don Valley North: Don Valley North would mostly be created from the existing Don Valley East riding, except I have shifted in northwards to the point that retaining its name “Don Valley East” would seem odd. Its southern boundary has been shifted to Lawrence Ave to the Don Valley Parkway to the 401., while I have extended the riding north to the northern boundary of the city, taking up the aforementioned parts of Willodale. The riding would have a population of 111,000 people.

This leaves us with Toronto—Danforth and Beaches—East York. These two ridings together have natural boundaries in the Don River to the north and west, the lakefront to the south, and Scarborough to the east. I didn't want to change this, so I kept both ridings they way they are, even though Toronto—Danforth is slightly underpopulated with 104,000 as is Beaches—East York with 107,000. Coxwell Ave makes a good boundary between the two ridings, so I wont change that. 


As mentioned, I will keep Etobicoke at three ridings. However, because their average size would be 116,000, I wanted to make all three ridings nearly identical in population so none would be too much more than the city average.

Etobicoke—Lakeshore: This riding is the only one in Etobicoke to have more than 116,000. At 123,000 it needs to be shrunk. To do this, I moved the Burnhamthorpe Rd border down to Bloor St. This brings the riding down to 115,000 people.

Etobicoke Centre: Etobicoke Centre presently has 114,000 people, but adding parts of Etobicoke—Lakeshore means it grows much larger. To cut it back down. To do this, I have removed the Willowridge-Martin Grove and “The Westway” neighbourhoods out of the riding and given it to Etobicoke North. It's not ideal, but critical for evening out the population. These changes put Etobicoke Centre at 116,000 people.

Etobicoke North: At 111,000, Etobicoke North needed a few more people to get to the Etobicoke average. Gaining Willowridge-Martin Grove and The Westway does this, giving the would-be population of the riding at 116,000.


Under my proposal, the former city of Scarborough will get six seats. This puts the average Scarborough riding at 104,000, which is below the provincial average. This means, keeping all six ridings as close to that number as possible, to avoid being too far below the provincial quotient.

Presently, Scarborough has five and a half ridings. Therefore, my proposal means moving the one half riding entirely into the city, and moving all the other ridings around to accommodate this.

Scarborough—Rouge River: At 135,000 people, Scarborough—Rouge River is the largest riding in Scarborough. To get it down to size, I had to lop off a lot of area. I decided to take from the west part of the riding, which is heavily East Asian, to make the riding more South Asian. This East Asian community will be more at home in neighbouring Scarborough—Agincourt which is pretty close to being a majority East Asian. I have moved the northwestern boundary from Midland Ave east to McCowan Rd, keeping the southwestern boundary at Brimley Rd. This gives the riding a population of 103,000, slightly underpopulated, but given room for growth.

Scarborough—Agincourt: Now that this riding has moved eastward, the southern boundary of the riding must move northward to compensate. I have moved the boundary from the 401 to travel along a line that follows Huntingwood Dr to Kennedy Rd to Sheppard Ave. This basically puts the neighboruhood of Tam O'Shanter into the neighbouring riding of Scarborough Centre. These changes give the riding a population of 106,000.

Scarborough Centre: Adding Tam O'Shanter means that Scarborough Centre's southerly boundary must also move north. I have moved the boundary north to Lawrence Ave, a nice straight line compared to the jagged boundary that currently exists. These changes give the riding a population of 102,000.

Scarborough Southwest: Scarborough west must move northward to add the areas lost by Scarborough Centre. The northern boundary would now be Lawrence Ave. This means the eastern boundary of the riding must move westward to compensate. My proposal would be to give the riding two straight line boundaries. The northern boundary would be Lawrence Ave, and the eastern boundary would be Midland Ave. This turns the riding into an elongated rectangle, much like the other Toronto lake shore ridings. The new boundaries of Scarborough Southwest would give the riding a population of 104,000.

Scarborough Bluffs—Woburn: With Scarborough—Guildwood moving westward to Midland Avenue, its eastern boundary would have to move west as well, and it would have to move past the area of the city known as Guildwood. That's why I would create the new riding of “Scarborough Bluffs—Woburn”. The riding would lose the Guildwood, Morningside and West Hill neighbourhoods, and would gain Englinton East, Brimley, Cliffcrest and the Scarborough Bluffs. In fact, only Scarborough Village and Woburn would remain in both ridings. The resulting population of the riding is 104,000. I have named the riding for the Scarborough Bluffs that I have transferred into the riding from Scarborough Southwest. I have also added the name “Woburn” to the riding for the neighbourhood of that name, as due to the shape of the proposed riding, the Woburn becomes an appendage that is the furthest part of the riding from the actual Scarborough Bluffs.

Scarborough East: Finally, the remaining part of Scarborough I have made into the new riding of Scarborough East. This new riding would come from parts of Scarborough—Guildwood and Pickering—Scarborough East. We would no longer have a riding straddling the Toronto-Pickering border. This new riding would have a population of 103,000. I have named it Scarborough East, because it is the furthest east of Scarborough's proposed ridings. And, because the name is used in the present riding of Picerking—Scarborough East. However, this proposed riding extends much further west. Calling it Scarborough—Guildwood I think would be inappropriate, even though the Guildwood area is in the riding. This is because the Guildwood area is close to the proposed boundary with Scarborough Bluffs—Woburn. Plus, the riding is too far removed from the current Scarborough—Guildwood riding.

Saturday, February 11, 2012

My riding boundary proposal for Winnipeg

My next riding boundary proposal is for Winnipeg. Manitoba is guaranteed 14 seats in the House of Commons, which gives each riding a population of about 86,000 people. Winnipeg experienced moderate growth, but actually grew slower than the provincial average. But not much slower, so the city is still guaranteed eight of the province's 14 seats.

The last redistribution commission 10 years ago for the province recommended that there only be a 5% variance between the ridings. Much smaller than mandated. I'm not sure if they will do this again, but I see no reason why they wouldn't. Therefore, I used this measure for my proposal.

5 of the 8 ridings in Winnipeg fall within 5% of the ideal population of 86,000. One riding, Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia was just 126 people short of being within 5% of the provincial quotient. Winnipeg South Centre, which is losing people is 4,000 short of being within 5% of the quotient, while neighbouring Winnipeg South is gaining in people and has 3,000 people more than 5% above the quotient. The fact that they are neighbouring ridings makes this issue very easy to deal with.

Here is my proposal for each riding:

Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia: This riding consists of Winnipeg's western suburbs, as well as the rural municipality of Headingley. As mentioned it was just short of being within 5% of the quotient, so it needed to gain some area. The present eastern boundary of the riding (north of the Assiniboine) is Ferry Road. This leaves the neighbourhood of King Edward, which is in Winnipeg Centre, isolated as it is separated from the rest of Winnipeg Centre by industrial area. It therefore made sense for me to move it westward into the Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia riding. This adds over 6,000 people to the riding, giving it a population of 88,000.

Winnipeg Centre
Removing King Edward from Winnipeg Centre thus created a domino effect in the rest of the ridings. Winnipeg Centre consists of the central, more working class part of the city. It has an ideal population going in to redistribution, but losing King Edward, puts it well under the 5% rule. My proposal compensates by adding the North End, Lord Selkirk Park and North Point Douglas neighbourhoods from Winnipeg North. This area will be somewhat isolated from Winnipeg Centre, as it is separated by the CPR railway. However, it does put Point Douglas in all one riding. And the area is similar to Winnipeg Centre, as it is a central neighbourhood. These changes bring the population of the riding up from 82,000 to 85,000.

Winnipeg North
Losing a chunk in its southeastern corner meant that Winnipeg North goes will bellow of being within 5% of the qoutient. This meant expanding the riding north, into Kildonan—St. Paul. One neighbourhood, Amber Trails, seemed like an obvious area to take from Kildonan—St. Paul as it was isolated from the rest of the riding, and is attached to an urban area in Winnipeg North. I also added its neighbouring neighbourhood, Leila North, thus uniting the Leila area into one riding. However, this still wasn't enough, so I moved the riding up the Red River, by adding the neighbourhood of Seven Oaks. This gives the riding 83,000 people, down 1,500 from its present populatuion.

Kildonan—St. Paul
With Kildonan—St. Paul losing some of its southern neighbourhoods, it too fell bellow the 5% rule. So, to compensate, I expanded the riding northward, so I wouldn't affect any more urban Winnipeg ridings. Kildonan—St. Paul consists of the far northern suburbs of the city, and also includes the rural municipalities of East St. Paul and West. St. Paul, which are growing exurban communities. I thought it would make sense to expand the riding northward to include more exurban communities. Since the rest of Manitoba is growing faster than Winnipeg itself, this is not a problem. My only problem with expanding northward is the lack of any natural municipality that could fit in the riding. That's why I only added a small rural part of the the rural municipality of St. Clements. This was enough to get within 5% of the quotient, and it gives the riding a population of 83,000. This is much lower than the present population of the riding which is 89,000. However, it's growing quickly.

This riding, located in Winnipeg's eastern suburbs is a growing community with a population of 83,000. This is within 5% of the quotient, so I left it unchanged.

Saint Boniface
This area is Winnipeg's traditional Francophone community. With a population of 89,000, it falls within 5% of the quotient. I left it unchanged as well.

Winnipeg South Centre
This riding is the only riding in the city to have lost people in the last 5 years. With 78,000 people, it is below being within 5% of the quotient. Since Winnipeg South, its neighbouring riding is above the 5% rule, I only had to move enough people from Winnipeg South Centre to Winnipeg South and they would both be within 5% of the quotient. Transferring the neighbourhood of Linden Woods over makes the most sense, as it is the furthest northern part of the Winnipeg South riding. It is a better fit for Winnipeg South however, as it is more suburban in nature, and despite being a protrusion of the riding, transferring it to Winnipeg South Centre would isolate it from the rest of its new riding. However, adding any other area to Winnipeg South Centre would make even less sense. This change gives Winnipeg South a population of 89,000- 11,000 more than now. It's okay to have that many people, as long as the riding continues to lose population.

Winnipeg South
Winnipeg South consists of the city's furthest southern suburbs. It's the fastest growing riding in the city, and is overpopulated. It has 93,000 people. Transferring Linden Woods brings it down to about 83,000. Since the riding is growing, it doesn't matter that it is below the quotient, as it will grow into it.

Keep your requests coming. And again, if you have any of your own ideas, please don't be afraid to share them.

Friday, February 10, 2012

Census results released, and my riding boundary proposal for Ottawa

The population and dwelling counts from the 2011 census were released Wednesday, and immediately speculation begun as to what boundary changes will be occurring, as Elections Canada prepares for another decennial redistricting.

We knew before the census results were even released what provinces would be gaining districts. A new bill passed by parliament back in December determined what provinces would be gaining ridings based on population estimates at the time. This is in contrast to actually using census results, which is the norm. The census results will be used to divide up each province, however.

Here's a handy chart that shows the population of the provinces, how many ridings each one will have, and what the average riding size will be.

Population (2011 Census)
Newfoundland and Labrador
Prince Edward Island
Nova Scotia
New Brunswick
British Columbia
Northwest Territories

And so, I got to crunching the numbers and looking at the maps as soon as I could. I hope to do maps from across the country over the next few months, as to how I would draw the map.

My first map will be Ottawa, my hometown. Ottawa saw a fairly large growth between the censuses. Its population of 883,391 means the city will be getting 8.3 ridings. This is up from the 7 ridings the city presently has.

The first task is to look at where the city's most populous ridings are. The two most overpopulated ridings are Carleton—Mississippi Mills and Nepean—Carleton. A new riding will have to be created in the city to encompass parts of both these ridings.

My proposal for 8+ Ottawa ridings.

Here are the new ridings I propose for the city:

Kanata—Carleton: This riding will consist of the bulk of the former riding of Carleton—Mississippi Mills. The present riding consists of the growing suburb of Kanata in Ottawa's west end and a large swath of rural area that extends into the neighbouring municipality of Missippi Mills. Carleton—Mississippi Mills has nearly 150,000 people, so some chopping off has to happen. First to go is Missippi Mills, which isn't even in Ottawa, and is a good place to start. That takes off 12,000 people. Then, I chopped off the former township of Goulbourn, which is home to another fast growing suburb, Stittsville. This brings us down to a population of 101,000, which, while under the provincial average, is okay in my opinion, because it will continue to grow in population over the next decade. I have named it Kanata—Carleton, because most of the population lives in Kanata, and the rest live in the former municipality of West Carleton.

Nepean: This riding is a much smaller version of the existing Nepean—Carleton riding. Nepean—Carleton is another fast growing riding in Ottawa. It is home to many fast growing suburban areas such as Barrhaven and Riverside South. At 159,000 people, it's Ottawa's largest riding. To bring it down to size, I had to reduce the riding to its base in south Nepean, losing all of the rural parts located in the former townships of Rideau and Osgoode as well as rural and suburban parts of south Gloucester. Finally, I added the Crystal Bay area from neighbouring Ottawa—West Nepean. This gives us a nice population of 107,000 people. The riding will be named Nepean, as it covers most of the former city of Nepean.

Ottawa—West Nepean: Encompassing the rest of Nepean plus the west end of Ottawa, is the riding of Ottawa—West Nepean. This is an inner-suburban riding with small growth. With a population of 111,000, not much change is needed. I propose lopping off Crystal Bay to make the riding more compact. This gives the riding a population of 108,000.

Ottawa Centre: Located in central Ottawa, is the riding of Ottawa Centre. It has a population of 114,000. I initially wanted to lop of Carleton Heights, in the riding's south, because it is isolated from the rest of the riding. However, that would have set off a domino effect that made things tricky for me. So, I kept the riding as is, even though it's a tad too big for my liking.

Ottawa—Vanier: This riding consists of the east end of the city, and has a large francophone population. At 104,000, the riding was a bit undersized, but still a good number. I would have left it alone, but I had to make some changes to its eastern boundary. The present riding splits the neighbourhood of Beacon Hill in two, so to even things out, I united the neighbourhood together. This makes a lot of sense if you look at a map, because the present boundary is not natural at all. My proposal would put all of Ottawa's east end into one compact riding. Adding Beacon Hill South gives the riding a population of 111,000.

Rideau—Carleton: This is the brand new riding I propose for the city. It was created from what we left over in the city. It includes the former townships of Goulbourn, Rideau, and Osgoode as well as south Gloucester, Blossom Park and Blackburn Hamlet. This riding includes some fast growing exurban communities such as Riverside South and Stittsville. Its population would be 117,000. This is the lowest I could get the population of the riding without making some major changes. I have named the riding Rideau—Carleton, after the Rideau River which flows through it, and for the former Carleton County. Carleton is still used by some to refer to the rural parts of the city.

Orleans: This riding is just a smaller version of the present Ottawa—Orleans riding. Ottawa—Orleans mostly consists of the eastern suburb of Orleans, plus Blackburn Hamlet and Beacon Hill South. The riding has a population of 119,000, so it needs to be trimmed. I lopped off both Blackburn Hamlet and Beacon Hill South, but that made the population too small. So, I added the Cardinal Creek community from the neighbouring Glengarry—Prescott—Russell riding. This makes a lot of sense, because Cardinal Creek is part of Orleans for all intents and purposes. It's too suburban for the mostly rural Glengarry—Prescott—Russell riding. These changes bring the population of the riding down to 108,000. I renamed the riding to just “Orleans”, because it will consist solely of the community of Orleans, and keeping Ottawa in the name is redundant.

Ottawa South: This riding consists of the southern end of the city. It is quite over populated at 122,000, so changes need to be made. My proposal is to lop off the southern end of the riding- the neighbourhood of Blossom Park, and everything south of Hunt Club Rd. This brings the riding down to a size of 104,000.

Glengarry—Prescott—Russell: This riding is mostly outside city limits, except for rural parts of the former Township of Cumberland. I would keep it this way, as keeping rural Cumberland with its rural neighbours together makes sense. Cumberland used to be part of Russell County a long time ago, anyways. The riding has a population of 112,000. It doesn't hurt to take some of that away, especially if you believe rural ridings should have less people. The only change I have proposed it taking away the Cardinal Creek neighbourhood of Orleans, and giving it to Orleans, which, as I mentioned makes a lot of sense. This brings the population down to 107,000.

Well, that's all for Ottawa. If you have any better ideas, please let me know! I would be happy to see your proposals. I will also be happy to post other people's proposals here as well. The more discussion, the better.

Monday, February 6, 2012

Toronto--Danforth demographic maps

Yesterday, Prime Minister Harper finally announced the date of the Toronto--Danforth by-election, needed to fill the seat that was vacated by the death of former NDP leader Jack Layton back in August. The date chosen was March 19.

Here at the Canadian Election Atlas, I hope to take an in depth geographical analysis of the riding over the next few weeks. Last month, if you will recall, I took a look at the boundary changes of the riding since confederation.

For this post, I will look at the riding's demographics. I have made maps showing income levels, race, language and religion. All topics of interest to me. However, if you would like to see some more demographic maps, please let me know by leaving a comment or emailing me with a request, and I will be happy to make a supplementary blog post.

First, let's get acquainted with the riding's neighbourhoods.

These are some of the general neighbourhood's in the riding. They don't have any official borders, so ignore the purple lines- I'll get to them in a second. These neighbourhoods are their approximate locations, which I researched on Wikipedia, and backed up using Atlases and other online sources.

The purple lines are the census tract boundaries in the riding. Statistics Canada provides detailed demographic data up to that level. The City of Toronto also provides data at that level, which is another source I used to get language information (which Statistics Canada doesn't provide unless we're talking about English or French). The grey census tract is actually an uninhabited portion of a larger census tract found in neighbouring Beaches--East York. Ignore it, no one lives there.

Unless otherwise noted, these maps are from the 2006 Census. Demographic information from the 2011 Census wont be available for a few months.

One thing I have discovered from making these maps, is the contrast between the north part of the riding and the south. The north has a large Greek, and Orthodox population (it is home to Greek Town after all), while the south has a large Chinese population, and is home to East Chinatown.

For income data, I have made just one map. This map shows the average annual income of a person over 15 (before taxes) in the riding from 2005. The riding is generally homogenous when it comes to income. Most census tracts have an average income of between $20,000 and $30,000. However, there is a somewhat wealthy pocket of the riding in the west Danforth area (including parts of Greektown and an area called "Danforth by the Valley"). These three census tracts, in the darkest green on the map all make about an average of $38,000. The poorest part of the riding is in Leslieville and the neighbouring India Bazaar area. Both India Bazaar and the census tract around Greenwood Park were the poorest census tracts in the riding, both earning an average of $18,000 in 2005.

After English of course, the two main languages of the riding are Chinese and Greek. As mentioned earlier, Chinese is mostly spoken in the south of the riding, while Greek is predominant in the north.

Two census tracts in Leslieville, and the census tract containing East Chinatown have the highest percentage of people who reported either Mandarin or Cantonese as their mother tongue. For the record, around 3 quarters of these native Chinese speakers are Cantonese. There are probably more Chinese speakers not shown on this map, but the Toronto Social Atlas which I used didn't include other Chinese languages or people who just wrote "Chinese" as their mother tongue.

The census tract with the most amount of native Greek speakers is not in fact Greektown, as one would expect, but nearby Pape Village. However, that whole area, around the Danforth and in East York has a high percentage of native Greek speakers.

After Whites, the four main racial groups in the riding are Chinese, South Asians, Blacks and Filipinos. I have mapped all four.

Not surprisingly, the census tracts with the highest percentage of native Chinese speakers are also the census tracts with the highest percentage of Chinese people. Again, much of the Chinese population is concentrated in the south part of the riding, in East Chinatown and in Leslieville.

South Asians can be found more in the central/eastern part of the riding. The highest concentration can be found in the Danforth area, the Pocket, and of course the India Bazaar.

The Black population in the riding is fairly spread out, but there is a higher concentration of Blacks along Pape Avenue, south of Danforth.

Meanwhile, Filipinos are also spreadout, and only number more than 6% in two census tracts, one in East York, and the largest is the low populated Studio District.

I made quite a few maps showing the strength of various religions and denominations of the riding. Note, that these maps are a bit out dated, since they are from the 2001 census. Religion is only asked on every second census, and was not asked in the 2006 census.

The largest religion in Toronto--Danforth is actually the lack thereof. 31% of the riding lacks any religion at all, which is the 2nd highest number in all of Ontario. Most of the irreligious in the riding can be found in the southern part. The Studio District, in the far south of the riding is the least religious census tract, with 50% of the population being non religious. The most religious census tract is Broadview West, where only 14% of the population is not religious.

21% of the riding is Catholic. Most of the Catholic population in the riding is concentrated in the northeast. The most Catholic census tract is in the East Danforth area. The least Catholic census tract is in Riverdale.

The Toronto Social Atlas was nice enough to breakdown the various Protestant denominations in the city, so I was able to combine all of the mainline Protestants into one group for the next map. Mainline Protestants seem to be concentrated in the more wealthier parts of the riding, in the central west and northeast.

Toronto--Danforth has the highest percentage of Orthodox Christians out of any riding in Ontario, at 11%. The riding has a high population of Greeks and Serbs, and they tend to be Orthodox. Almost all of the Orthodox in the riding live in the north, especially in the northwest of the riding. In fact, two census tracts have a majority of its population being Orthodox. Both of these census tracts are in the Broadview North area of the riding, west of Pape.

Toronto--Danforth also has the highest percentage of Buddhists of any riding in Ontario, with 6%. Budhists are found in the south of the riding, and more or less correlate with the Chinese population. East Chinatown has the highest percentage of Buddhists in the riding, with 18% of that census tract being Buddhist.

5% of the riding is Muslim, and they are mostly concentrated in the Pocket, and in the India Bazaar.

My final map shows the Jewish population. Only 2% of the riding is Jewish, and the are found more in the wealthy west part of the riding, in Riverdale.

Sunday, February 5, 2012

NDP leadership endorsement map - as of Feb 4

Click to enlarge.
Okay, this is a little late, but it's time for my February update of the NDP leadership map.

At this point, the race is still up in the air, with no clear favourite. Throughout the month of January, most of the candidates have still got some pretty big endorsements:

Nikki Ashton: Ashton looks like she'll be one of the last place candidates, but that hasn't stopped her from getting some support from caucus. She now has the support of four M.P.s, including most recently, Carol Hughes.

Nathan Cullen: Cullen went into January without any caucus support, but has managed to get endorsements from 2 BC M.P.s, Alex Atamenenko and Fin Donnelly.

Paul Dewar: Dewar also started the month with no caucus support, but now has the support of four M.P.s, Linda Duncan, Charlie Angus, Irene Mathyssen, and Claude Gravelle.

Thomas Mulcair: Mulcair continues to lead the way in endorsements. He gained two M.P.s, Don Davies and Ryan Cleary (who previously endorsed Robert Chisholm, who dropped out). Mulcair also lost an MP when Lise St-Denis crossed the floor to join the Liberal Party. Mulcair also got a big endorsement from Howard Hampton, former leader of the Ontario NDP.

Peggy Nash: Nash picked up two M.P. Endorsements in January, one from fellow Toronto MP, Mike Sullivan and one from Dany Morin.

Brian Topp: Topp just got one new MP endorsement in Chris Charlton.

Both Romeo Saganash and Martin Singh failed to get any endorsements in the month of January.

Since this is a geography blog, let's take a look at total political endorsements by province. By now, every province has at least one political endorsement for one of the candidates. The territories have none so far, but that could change as there is one MP from there, as well as a number of NDP MLAs in the Yukon, not to mention former leader Audrey McLaughlin.

British Columbia
B.C. Has the most amount of NDP members of any province, so who wins there will be a big factor in who becomes leader. The province has one candidate in the running, Nathan Cullen. However, he only sits in 2nd place there- and has absolutely no endorsements in the rest of the country. BC is one of Brian Topp's best provinces, and he is heads and shoulder above everyone else:

Topp – 24
Cullen – 9
Mulcair – 7
Dewar – 2
Nash – 2
Ashton – 2

Alberta has had just one endorsement so far. That is from their lone MP, Linda Duncan. She endorsed Paul Dewar, so he leads in that province.
Saskatchewan has the highest proportion of any NDPers in any province, but with no M.P.s, there have been few endorsements thus far. Topp, who used to work for the NDP there leads the way:

Topp – 4
Dewar – 1
Mulcair – 1

Manitoba continues to be a battle between Niki Ashton, who represents the province's Churchill riding, and Paul Dewar who has connections in the province. Ashton leads Dewar by one political endorsement- her own.

Ashton – 15
Dewar – 14
Mulcair – 1
Topp – 1
Nash – 1

Ontario is a real battleground right now, with many politicians there supporting Mulcair, and two local M.P.s, Dewar and Nash. Mulcair and Dewar are currently tied for the lead at 8 endorsements.

Mulcair – 8
Dewar – 8
Nash – 6
Topp – 3
Ashton – 1

Quebec has the most M.P.s, but not a very high membership so far. Mulcair leads the way with 29 endorsements in the province, far ahead of anyone else.

Mulcair – 29
Topp – 5
Nash – 3
Ashton – 3
Saganash – 2

New Brunswick
New Brunswick's only NDP MP, Yvon Godin endorsed Topp. However, provincial NDP leader Dominic Cardy endorsed Mulcair. As the party lacks any provincial seats, these two endorsements may be all there is unless someone like former provincial leader and MLA Elizabeth Weir makes an endorsement.

Nova Scotia
With Robert Chisholm out of the race, NDP MLAs in the province now have some choice, and so far Nash leads the way. In addition to former federal leader Alexa McDonough's endorsement, Nash has the endorsement of three MLAs.
Nash – 4
Topp – 2
Dewar – 1
Singh – 1

Prince Edward Island
The only NDP Islander to ever win a seat to the provincial assembly, Herb Dickeison endorsed Thomas Mulcair. It's the only endorsement from the province so far, and will probably be the only one.

Newfoundland and Labrador
Mulcair has two endorsements in the province. One from MP Ryan Cleary, and one from Dale Kirby, a Member of the provincial house of Assembly. Nash has the only other endorsement from the province, that of provincial NDP leader, Lorraine Michael.

If the NDP had primaries, like in the US- and if endorsements were indicative of member support (which it isn't, really), then this would clearly be a race up in the air. However, Mulcair would have the best shot. He currently leads in 3 provinces, and is tied in two others. Next is Topp, who leads in two and is tied in one. Then Dewar who leads in one, and is tied in another. Nash and Ashton both lead in one province each.