Sunday, February 5, 2012

NDP leadership endorsement map - as of Feb 4

Click to enlarge.
Okay, this is a little late, but it's time for my February update of the NDP leadership map.

At this point, the race is still up in the air, with no clear favourite. Throughout the month of January, most of the candidates have still got some pretty big endorsements:

Nikki Ashton: Ashton looks like she'll be one of the last place candidates, but that hasn't stopped her from getting some support from caucus. She now has the support of four M.P.s, including most recently, Carol Hughes.

Nathan Cullen: Cullen went into January without any caucus support, but has managed to get endorsements from 2 BC M.P.s, Alex Atamenenko and Fin Donnelly.

Paul Dewar: Dewar also started the month with no caucus support, but now has the support of four M.P.s, Linda Duncan, Charlie Angus, Irene Mathyssen, and Claude Gravelle.

Thomas Mulcair: Mulcair continues to lead the way in endorsements. He gained two M.P.s, Don Davies and Ryan Cleary (who previously endorsed Robert Chisholm, who dropped out). Mulcair also lost an MP when Lise St-Denis crossed the floor to join the Liberal Party. Mulcair also got a big endorsement from Howard Hampton, former leader of the Ontario NDP.

Peggy Nash: Nash picked up two M.P. Endorsements in January, one from fellow Toronto MP, Mike Sullivan and one from Dany Morin.

Brian Topp: Topp just got one new MP endorsement in Chris Charlton.

Both Romeo Saganash and Martin Singh failed to get any endorsements in the month of January.

Since this is a geography blog, let's take a look at total political endorsements by province. By now, every province has at least one political endorsement for one of the candidates. The territories have none so far, but that could change as there is one MP from there, as well as a number of NDP MLAs in the Yukon, not to mention former leader Audrey McLaughlin.

British Columbia
B.C. Has the most amount of NDP members of any province, so who wins there will be a big factor in who becomes leader. The province has one candidate in the running, Nathan Cullen. However, he only sits in 2nd place there- and has absolutely no endorsements in the rest of the country. BC is one of Brian Topp's best provinces, and he is heads and shoulder above everyone else:

Topp – 24
Cullen – 9
Mulcair – 7
Dewar – 2
Nash – 2
Ashton – 2

Alberta has had just one endorsement so far. That is from their lone MP, Linda Duncan. She endorsed Paul Dewar, so he leads in that province.
Saskatchewan has the highest proportion of any NDPers in any province, but with no M.P.s, there have been few endorsements thus far. Topp, who used to work for the NDP there leads the way:

Topp – 4
Dewar – 1
Mulcair – 1

Manitoba continues to be a battle between Niki Ashton, who represents the province's Churchill riding, and Paul Dewar who has connections in the province. Ashton leads Dewar by one political endorsement- her own.

Ashton – 15
Dewar – 14
Mulcair – 1
Topp – 1
Nash – 1

Ontario is a real battleground right now, with many politicians there supporting Mulcair, and two local M.P.s, Dewar and Nash. Mulcair and Dewar are currently tied for the lead at 8 endorsements.

Mulcair – 8
Dewar – 8
Nash – 6
Topp – 3
Ashton – 1

Quebec has the most M.P.s, but not a very high membership so far. Mulcair leads the way with 29 endorsements in the province, far ahead of anyone else.

Mulcair – 29
Topp – 5
Nash – 3
Ashton – 3
Saganash – 2

New Brunswick
New Brunswick's only NDP MP, Yvon Godin endorsed Topp. However, provincial NDP leader Dominic Cardy endorsed Mulcair. As the party lacks any provincial seats, these two endorsements may be all there is unless someone like former provincial leader and MLA Elizabeth Weir makes an endorsement.

Nova Scotia
With Robert Chisholm out of the race, NDP MLAs in the province now have some choice, and so far Nash leads the way. In addition to former federal leader Alexa McDonough's endorsement, Nash has the endorsement of three MLAs.
Nash – 4
Topp – 2
Dewar – 1
Singh – 1

Prince Edward Island
The only NDP Islander to ever win a seat to the provincial assembly, Herb Dickeison endorsed Thomas Mulcair. It's the only endorsement from the province so far, and will probably be the only one.

Newfoundland and Labrador
Mulcair has two endorsements in the province. One from MP Ryan Cleary, and one from Dale Kirby, a Member of the provincial house of Assembly. Nash has the only other endorsement from the province, that of provincial NDP leader, Lorraine Michael.

If the NDP had primaries, like in the US- and if endorsements were indicative of member support (which it isn't, really), then this would clearly be a race up in the air. However, Mulcair would have the best shot. He currently leads in 3 provinces, and is tied in two others. Next is Topp, who leads in two and is tied in one. Then Dewar who leads in one, and is tied in another. Nash and Ashton both lead in one province each.

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