Re-cap of the Manitoba NDP leadership election: An excercise in futility?

Yesterday, the governing New Democratic Party of Manitoba held a leadership convention and re-elected their leader, Premier Greg Selinger. Back in the Fall, there was a caucus revolt in the party, following two years of trailing the opposition Progressive Conservative Party in the polls, due in part to recent unpopular policies, such as raising the Provincial Sales Tax. The NDP has been in power since 1999, and Selinger has been Premier since the last leadership vote in 2009. Following the revolt, which involved the resignation of five cabinet ministers, Selinger refused to step down as Premier, and called a leadership election.


Polls in Manitoba now show the NDP trailing the Tories by at least 20 points, and are now in threat of being surpassed by the Liberals, who hold just one seat in the legislature. This was no matter for a majority delegates at the convention this weekend, as they narrowly chose to keep Selinger as Premier. 50.9% of delegates voted for Selinger on the second ballot yesterday, defeating MLA Theresa Oswald. Another MLA, Steve Ashton (father of MP Nikki Ashton) also ran for leader, but was eliminated on the first ballot, in a close three way race. After the first ballot, Selinger had the support of 36% of delegates, Oswald had 34% and Ashton had 30%. Normally when party's have their annual or biennial leadership reviews, leaders need at least 70% support to feel comfortable enough to stay on as leader. This wasn't a leadership review, but it's clear Selinger barely even has majority support in his party, which means he will be in tough to lead the party into the next election, scheduled for the Spring of 2016.

The leadership candidates

The Manitoba NDP uses a traditional delegated leadership convention, which is relatively unheard for other provincial New Democratic Parties. Delegates are selected in a number of different fashions. More than half of the delegates were chosen at delegate meetings held across the province in February. Local members of the NDP in each riding elected slates of delegates representing the candidates. Slates were elected using plurality-at-large voting, meaning that in most cases one candidate would win all or almost all of the delegates in a riding. The number of delegates a riding has was determined based on the party's membership in that riding. Of all the ridings, The Pas, in Northern Manitoba had the most delegates with 145, owing in part to an expected by-election there, which has increased party memberships. Members in The Pas, and in four other ridings in Northern Manitoba had to mail in their ballots, as delegates meetings would have been impossible to hold in such geographically large ridings. The minimum amount of delegates a riding could have was five, which 10 ridings had. All but nine of those ridings are held by the Tories.


After all the delegate meetings were held across the province, it was clear that a close three-way race was emerging. Steve Ashton won the most constituency delegates with 482. Selinger was next with 415, and Theresa Oswald was close behind with 336. Another 7 delegates were unpledged. Oswald won an additional 91 delegates from the Manitoba NDP youth, while Ashton won one. Only 77 youth delegates showed up to the actual leadership convention, however. 1,212 of the 1,240 elected constituency delegates showed up to the convention. In order to vote, delegates had to attend the convention held at the Canad Inns Polo Park in Winnipeg.

Candidate delegate geography 

Delegate winners by riding

Selinger saw his best delegate meeting results in Winnipeg's working class north end, an area that is home to the NDP's base in the province. Outside of this area, Selinger won a splattering of ridings across the province, including both Brandon seats. His big delegate-haul was The Maples, in the northwest corner of Winnipeg, where he won all 117 delegates. His next best delegate win was Point Douglas in the north end of the city, where he won 34 delegates. Ashton won the most amount of constituency delegates, thanks in part to his big win in The Pas (126 of 145 delegates), which is right next door to his home riding of Thompson. Ashton did not sweep the north however (another strong NDP region of the province), as The Pas and Thompson were the only seats he won. He won most of his seats in suburban Winnipeg, and won a few rural seats as well. Ashton's other big wins were Thompson (61 delegates), Elmwood (59 of 61), Concordia (46) and St. Norbert (44). Despite winning the least amount of constituency delegates, Oswald won the most amount of constituencies. She did this by winning ridings with fewer delegates, in areas such as the south end suburbs of Winnipeg and in rural southern Manitoba. Oswald represents Seine River in the legisulatre, a suburban riding in the south end of Winnipeg, which is an important swing area that was key for past NDP election victories. Oswald did well in these swing areas, indicating that she may have been the best candidate for the party to retain these seats. Oswald's only major delegate win came from Wolseley, a seat in central Winnipeg, where she won 45 of a possible 48 delegates. Other than Wolseley, she did not win any seats with fewer than 25 delegates.

Other delegates

Owing in part to the NDP's formation in 1961 as a merger of the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation and the Canadian Labour Congress, unions still have a major influence in the NDP and are often still awarded delegates in some provincial leadership races. The Manitoba NDP, which still uses an archaic delegated convention anyways, is no exception in this regard. Selinger received endorsements from the two biggest affiliated unions, CUPE and the UFCW. While not all union delegates are bound to vote for who their union endorsed, these high profile union endorsements were key for Selinger to win the nomination, and to over come his lack of constituency delegates. Unions were initially entitled 691 delegates, but were only able to fill up 296 slots at the convention. Even still, this was enough to held Selinger get elected. Despite winning the endorsement of two unions (United Fire Fighters and the United Steelworkers), it is clear from the results that Ashton did not win very many actual union delegates (no more than 12 by my estimation), despite both unions being worth a combined 86 delegates.


In addition to the constituency, youth a union delegates, 157 ex-officio delegates (of a possible 200) attended the convention, representing the party's riding associations, plus MLAs, Members of Parliament and other officials. While a caucus revolt spurred the leadership election, Selinger still had a lot of support from caucus members. 15 of the 37 members of caucus backed Selinger, compared to eight for Oswald and seven for Ashton (the rest were neutral). Assuming Ashton won a handful of union delegates, he probably won very if ex-officios other than the support of those seven caucus members, and presumably his daughter. Oswald must have won many ex-officios, considering her weak union support.


1,742 delegates (out of a possible 2,217) attended the convention, and thus were able to vote for leader yesterday. 1,699 delegates voted on the first ballot, and just 1,490 on the second. One would think that once Ashton was eliminated after the first ballot, most of his delegates would go to Oswald, to stop Selinger. However, this did not quite happen. It looks like a plurality of his delegates did not even vote on the second ballot. Those who did were evenly split between Oswald and Selinger. Oswald gained 151 votes on the second ballot, while Selinger gained 147 (while 209 fewer delegates voted on the second ballot). All three candidates were seen as polarizing figures, with deep flaws ,preventing much cross-support. It appears there were just as many people who did not want to see Oswald or Ashton win than who did not want to see Selinger win. This polarization was another factor that helped Selinger win, as delegates of his opponents could not unite against him.

Outlook 

In my opinion, the Manitoba NDP's archaic delegated voting system and union delegates helped Selinger win despite his clear lack of popular support. With a more democratic one member, one vote system, Selinger would probably have lost the leadership race, allowing the Manitoba NDP a chance at renewal. While it's likely the NDP was going to lose the next election no matter who they chose as leader, choosing to keep Selinger was probably the worst thing the party could have done. They had a chance to save grace, but instead will likely face a metaphorical blood bath in the next election. And with the Liberal brand on the rise across the country, the next election could be a repeat of the 1988 election (where the Liberals formed the opposition, with the NDP in third), but with a large majority for the Tories. And for now, the Selinger has to lead a beleaguered, divided party for at most, another 13 months.

Federal Liberal leadership maps

The Canadian Election Atlas is back from hiatus to take a look at the federal Liberal Party leadership race which will decide a winner today. Admittedly, it has not been a race I have been interested in too much, as since the beginning, the winner has been a foregone conclusion. (If you've been living in a box, that winner is Justin Trudeau). Despite this foregone conclusion, the race has six candidates, and at one point had as many as nine candidates. The last time a Liberal leadership race was a foregone conclusion (not including 2009), there were only two candidates (when Paul Martin beat Sheila Copps in 2003).

Despite the race being a foregone conclusion, the abundance of candidates has meant that there is a race, and the Liberal Party's decision to ditch the traditional delegated conventions and move to a more democratic one member one vote system has made the race at least a little interesting. And it's not just a one member, one vote system either, as the Liberals have expanded the amount of people who can vote in their leadership election by allowing people who “support” the party to vote in it, without needing to get a membership. In total, 127000 people are eligible to vote the Liberal leadership race.

The press has had a field day comparing the Liberal leadership race to the NDP's leadership race. Indeed, the amount of registered voters is similar (the NDP had about 131000 eligible voters). However, the Liberals have surpassed the NDP in terms of actual voters. I won't go into partisan reasons why, but I just thought it was interesting.

Anyways, much like the NDP race, I have made an endorsement map for the Liberal leadership race. It's not nearly as interesting as the NDP race, as there were fewer endorsements made, and most endorsements were for Justin Trudeau. In terms of political endorsements (only counting people who have been democratically elected), Trudeau leads in Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador. 2^nd place candidate Joyce Murray (MP for Vancouver Quadra) leads the endorsement race in her home province of BC, while former MP Martha Hall Findlay (Willowdale) leads in Alberta and New Brunswick. Saskatchewan, which had just two endorsers is a tie between Trudeau and Murray, with one endorsement each. Deborah Coyne is the only other candidate with a political endorsement. Candidates Martin Cauchon and Karen McCrimmon have none.

Endorsement map.
Click to enlarge.

Hopefully the Liberal Party will release provincial results for their leadership race, but might hold out on doing so, like the NDP. If they do, it will be interesting to compare the actual results to the endorsements. In any event, if the endorsement map tells us anything, it is that this race is Trudeau's to lose. If there is a race for second, it will be between Joyce Murray and Martha Hall Findlay, although I personally think Murray has the edge.

Like I did for the NDP leadership race, I have also created a number of “membership” (read: registered voter) maps for the race, showing the registered voter distribution (both in raw numbers and percentage of population), registered voters to MP ratio and votes in 2011 to registered voters ratio:

Province / Territory	Registered voters for leadership race	% of population	Liberal registered voters to MP ratio	2011 Liberal voters to Liberal registered voters
Alberta	9302	0.26	-	13.9
British Columbia	16098	0.37	8049	15.6
Manitoba	4444	0.37	4444	18.3
New Brunswick	6889	0.92	6889	12.8
Newfoundland and Labrador	3149	0.61	787.25	26.1
Northwest Territories	176	0.42	-	16.3
Nova Scotia	7425	0.81	1856.25	17.6
Nunavut	56	0.18	-	40.4
Ontario	59474	0.46	5406.7	23.5
Prince Edward Island	2611	1.86	870.3	12.4
Quebec	14577	0.18	1822.1	36.9
Saskatchewan	2700	0.26	2700	14.3
Yukon	223	0.66	-	23.7
TOTAL	127124	0.4	3832.1	21.9

The first map shows the provinces and territories coloured in my number of registered Liberal voters. Ontario has by far the most amount of voters at 59,474 which accounts for 47% of the Liberal electorate. Interestingly, British Columbia is next with 16,098 followed by Quebec at 14,577. Not surprisingly, Nunavut has the least amount of Liberal leadership voters at 56.

The second map is coloured by the percentage of the population who are eligible to vote for Liberal leader. Prince Edward Island tops this list, as the only province or territory where more than 1% of the population is registered to vote (1.86%). The next highest is New Brunswick at 0.92% followed by Nova Scotia at 0.81%. Quebec and Nunavut are the lowest at just 0.18%. 

The next maps shows the registered Liberal vote to MP ratio. BC tops this list, having just 2 Members of Parliament for it 16000 voters. New Brunswick is next, with just one MP for its 6900 voters. The province with the best ratio is Newfoundland and Labrador which has 4 Members for 3149 registered voters. Alberta, and the three Territories have no Liberal MPs.

The final map shows the ratio of actual Liberal voters (that is people who voted Liberal in the last federal election) to registered Liberal voters. One thing I found from this calculation is how relatively even these numbers are across the provinces and territories. The range goes from 40 in Nunavut to 12 in PEI. This is far more even than we saw in the NDP race, where we saw some large discrepancies, such as in Quebec. 

Ontario Liberal leadership race - delegate map

Ontario Liberals met last weekend to elect delegates who will be sent to Toronto on the weekend of January 25-27 to elect the next Premier of Ontario. Current Premier and Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty announced last October that he would be resigning as Premier following a vote to elect the next leader of the party.

As a rule, I have been avoiding making maps of provincial party leadership races, but I have decided to change that and begin to cover at least the races of provincial governing parties. As the Liberals are currently in power in Ontario, I have decided to map the leadership race.

Liberal Party members got together in all 107 ridings last weekend, and in various campus clubs and women's organizations to elect a slate of delegates to attend the leadership race. Most elected delegates have committed to vote for a particular candidate, but 67 of the 1875 elected delegates are uncommitted. Former Windsor West MPP and Education Minister Sandra Pupatello won the most delegates (510). Don Valley West MPP and another former Education Minister Kathleen Wynne won the second most amount of delegates at 468. The race is widely expected to be between those two, meaning that Ontario will likely see its first female Premier in its history. To boot, if Wynne wins, she will become the first openly gay (the late former Premier of New Brunswick Richard Hatfield was gay, but in the closet) person to lead a province in Canadian history. In third place is former Parkdale—High Park MP and MPP, and yet another former Minister of Education, Gerard Kennedy. He won 259 delegates. In fourth is Mississauga—Erindale MPP and former Transportation Minister Harinder Takhar. He was the biggest surprise finisher in the delegate fight, picking up 244 delegates, despite few endorsements from current or former caucus members. Close behind him in 5^th is another Mississauga MPP (Mississauga South) and former Labour Minister Charles Sousa. He secured 204 delegates. And finally in last place is St. Paul's MPP and former Citizenship and Immigration Minister Eric Hoskins. He won just 105 delegates.

Each of Ontario's 107 ridings will be sending a slate of 16 delegates to the Toronto convention. In addition, a number of Liberal clubs in universities across the province elected delegates, as did a number of Liberal women's clubs. All 6 candidates won at least a plurality of delegates in at least one riding. In fact, last place candidate Hoskins won 2 ridings. Uncommitted delegates won a plurality in two ridings as well (Vaughan and Scarborough—Rouge River). I'm not sure why that happened.

The support that each candidate received across the regions of the province can be attributed to a number of factors. Tribal politics appear to be alive and well in the Liberal Party, as certain ethnic groups have clearly put their support behind certain candidates. Also, it appears that endorsements truly do matter in many cases. Here is an analysis of the support for all six candidates.

Hoskins

Hoskins won just two ridings, and perhaps surprisingly, neither of them is the riding he currently holds in the Ontario Legislature. He lost St. Paul's by just one delegate to Wynne (6-5). He did win an overwhelming majority of delegates in the riding of Haldimand—Norfolk where he ran federally in the 2008 election. He also won the riding of Scarborough—Guildwood where he won the endorsement of its MPP, Magarett Best.

Sousa

Sousa's support was concentrated in the GTA where he won 9 ridings and tied in 4 others. His best riding was his own, Mississauga South where he won 14 of the 16 delegates. He also did well in Davenport, a riding with a high Portuguese population. He also won York South—Weston, another riding with a high Portuguese population. Sousa himself is Portuguese. Outside of his own riding however, he won no other seats in the Peel Region. He did tie with Takhar in Mississauga East—Cooksville, however. Sousa did fairly well in Scarborough (thanks to endorsements by two local MPPs) where he won three seats and in a handful of exurban ridings.

Takhar

Takhar's campaign focused heavily on the South Asian community in Ontario. While he finished fourth in delegates, he finished a strong third in total number of ridings won. This indicates that he support was concentrated heavily in the ridings he did well in. Takhar did the best in his home region of Peel, where he won or tied in all but two ridings. He also did well in the northwest corner of Toronto, which is home to a high immigrant population. What's most surprising about his strength was the wins in suburban Ottawa (Nepean—Carleton and Carleton—Mississippi Mills), Niagara West—Glanbrook, Hamilton—Stoney Creek and in the Grand River Valley region (Guelph, Brant, Kitchener-Waterloo, etc). I have no idea why he did so well there.

Kennedy

Kennedy's strength was a mile wide and an inch deep it seems. While he finished third in delegates, he finished fifth in terms of seats won- just eight, and tied in two others. His support was not really concentrated in any particular region of the province. His best riding was of course, Parkdale—High Park which he represented both federally and provincially in the past. He won 10 delegates there. Some of his other wins can be attributed to high profile endorsements, like the ones in Niagara Falls and Brampton West. The other ridings he won are quite random: Sarnia—Lambton, Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, Oxford, Peterborough and Timiskaming—Cochane (plus his two ties, Barrie and Scarborough Centre). Not sure why he won in those seats in particular.

Wynne

Wynne did strongly in two very different areas of the province, Central Toronto and Central Ontario. The former is a very left wing part of the province, perhaps the most left wing part, while the latter is quite the opposite. While it's easy to explain why left leaning Liberals in Toronto would support Wynne, an open lesbian who happens to hail from the region, but it's harder to explain why she won ridings in the bluest part of the province- Central and Central Eastern Ontario. Wynne's home riding of Don Valley West tied for her best riding, with 13 delegates. Interestingly, and oddly- the other riding to give her 13 delegates was Nipissing. She did receive the endorsement of Nipissing's former MPP, Monique Smith. But, I can't quite explain why Wynne won in conservative leaning ridings like Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, Leeds—Grenville, Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington or Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock. Especially considering the fact that Wynne is widely seen as the “left” candidate- at least compared to Pupatello. My only explanation comes down to religion. This region of the province is highly Protestant, and while I'm not sure what relgion (if any) Wynne is, it's clear that with a name like Pupatello, she certainly is not.

Pupatello

Pupatello has built her delegate lead on a coalition of a number of regions across the province. Namely these are the urban north, Ottawa and the far east, and her home region of Southwestern Ontario. Usually this wouldn't be enough to lead any race, but in this fractured election, it's just enough, if you couple it with a spattering of random ridings in the middle of the province. From the looks of it, Pupatello's Italian heritage seems to have helped her win ridings with high Italian populations. One big exception is Ontario's most Italian riding, Vaughan which saw half its delegates go uncommitted and only two for Pupatello. Pupatello also did well in highly Catholic, and highly Francophone ridings like Ottawa—Vanier, Glengarry—Prescott—Russell and Timmins—James Bay. I'm not sure if Pupatello is even bilingual, so perhaps this support also comes down to religion. Interestingly, Pupatello's best riding was Thunder Bay—Superior North where she won 14 delegates. She was endorsed by both of Thunder Bay's MPPs. She also did well in the other Thunder Bay riding, Thunder Bay-Atikokan, where she won 12 delegates. Her next best ridings were highly Francophone Glengarry—Prescott—Russell and Essex where she won 13 delegates each. Essex is right next door to her former home riding of Windsor West, where she happened to win 12 delegates.

The Ontario Liberal delegate map raises a lot of questions about how leadership contests work, and how people vote. It really is quite fascinating. Does it raise questions about tribal politics? Does it mean endorsements work? For the most part though, many of the things going on in this map are unexplainable by me. Perhaps I just need to know more about the Liberal Party? Anyways, their leadership contest is a week and a half away; and because it is a delegated convention, there will be no way to map the different rounds, so this will have to suffice for now. For more details about the delegate breakdown, click here.

NDP leadership endorsement map - final edition

The NDP leadership election is right around the corner, and I have finally compiled the map of political endorsements for the candidates. Since I last published my map in February, a lot has happened, including one of the candidates (Romeo Saganash) dropping out. There have been a huge swath of endorsements, so many, that I'm afraid my map will not be 100% accurate. I did try my best, but I haven't had the time over the last few weeks to religiously follow all the endorsements I'm afraid. So I did my best, following twitter feeds and news items from candidates websites.

If I missed any endorsements, I apologize. Unfortunately, since I am actually going to the convention this weekend, I won't have the time to fix my maps. But please let me know by leaving a comment.

Without further ado, here is the map:

If nothing else, this map is a good indicator of where NDP support is strongest across the country. It goes without saying that endorsements mean very little in the party leadership race. Each endorser has but one vote, and is equal to the endorsement of any other party member, including myself. But, due to the fact it is unlikely the party will release provincial results, this map shows the next best thing.

As I mentioned in my last post about the NDP leadership, BC and Ontario are the most important provinces, with over half of the memberships there. Both provinces are the most eclectic, as all of the major candidates have been able to gain important endorsements there. For the record though, Topp appears to have the edge in BC while Mulcair has the edge in Ontario.

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Quebec will also be key provinces. Alberta has been a dead zone for endorsements however, as the party has very few elected politicians there. Saskatchewan is dominated by Topp, Manitoba is an Ashton vs Dewar race, and Quebec will be a wash for Mulcair. Nova Scotia has had a lot of endorsements as well. I wish I had the time to make a Halifax inset on the map, so I apologize for the clutter. But anyways, despite forming government there, the Nova Scotia NDP membership is quite low, and wont be a huge factor this weekend.

Well, I wish I could provide more analysis, but this will have to do for now. I do have to get my rest before I head off to Toronto tomorrow. I will be tweeting from the convention floor, so don't forget to follow me! The first ballot will be tallied Saturday morning. Enjoy the convention, everyone. I know I will!

NDP membership maps

The NDP leadership convention is only two weeks away, and so I've decided to do a brief analysis of the party's membership. Updated numbers were released at the beginning of the month, showing the party's membership for each of the 10 provinces and three territories.

The membership deadline for voting in the leadership race was almost a month ago, so the updated figures will be the official figures for the leadership race. Members will be able to vote either online, by mail or at the party's leadership convention.

Totals:

Province / Territory	NDP members	% of population (2011 census)	Members to NDP MP's ratio	NDP 2011 votes to members ratio
Alberta	9800	0.27	9800	24
British Columbia	39859	0.91	3321.6	15.3
Manitoba	11991	0.99	5995.5	10.6
New Brunswick	946	0.13	946	122.4
Newfoundland and Labrador	974	0.19	487	72.8
Nova Scotia	3904	0.42	1301.3	35
Northwest Territories	124	0.3	124	57.6
Nunavut	24	0.08	-	63.5
Ontario	36965	0.29	1760.2	38.3
Prince Edward Island	262	0.19	-	46.3
Quebec	13987	0.18	241.2	116.6
Saskatchewan	11243	1.09	-	13.1
Yukon	747	2.2	-	3.1
Total (including others)	131152	0.39	1298.5	34.4

NDP Membership by province and territory.

 As you can see, over half of all NDP members are in BC and Ontario. This is good for the party, considering it is in those two regions the party needs to grow in order form government. However, the party also needs to worry about keeping strength in Quebec. While membership in Quebec has increased a lot, it is still not going to be a huge factor.

This discrepancy can be shown best through the last two columns on my chart. The third column in my chart shows the ratio of NDP Members to NDP Members of Parliament. Quebec has one NDP Member of Parliament for every 241 members. This is a very low number, second only to the Northwest Territories, which has one MP and a total of 124 members in the entire territory. My next map illustrates this well:

The fourth column shows the ratio of NDP voters in the last federal election to members. One would think that the provinces should be generally equal, but this is not the case. Some provinces' citizens are more likely to want to join a political party than others. Much has been said about how fickle Quebec voters can be, and the chart shows how unwilling they are to commit to the party they overwhelmingly backed in 2011. There are 117 NDP voters for every NDP member in the province. Only New Brunswick was more out of balance. It appears provinces without NDP voting traditions had the most discrepancies. The Yukon has the lowest NDP voter to member ratio. The party has a high membership in the Territory, but had a poor showing in the federal election. It's likely many NDP members didn't even vote for the NDP last May. I have made another map showing the ratio:

The second column in the chart shows the percentage of the population in each region who is an NDP member. Interestingly, the two jurisdictions with the highest percentage of NDP members both have zero NDP Members of Parliament. Over 2% of the population of the Yukon holds an NDP membership (thanks perhaps to a re-invigorated territorial party). And, just over 1% of Saskatchewan holds an NDP membership. The party should be happy about that, especially coming off a poor election result in the Fall, and going four straight federal elections without winning a seat. My next map shows this:

So, there are clearly four tiers of provinces. Ontario and BC have the most influence, with both having over 30,000 members. Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Quebec are the next tier, all with around 10,000 members. Nova Scotia is in a tier of its own, with 4000 members. The rest of the provinces round out the final tier, all of which have less than 1000 members. It is clear that Ontario and BC will be the key provinces to focus on.

NDP leadership endorsement map - as of Feb 4

Click to enlarge.

Okay, this is a little late, but it's time for my February update of the NDP leadership map.

At this point, the race is still up in the air, with no clear favourite. Throughout the month of January, most of the candidates have still got some pretty big endorsements:

Nikki Ashton: Ashton looks like she'll be one of the last place candidates, but that hasn't stopped her from getting some support from caucus. She now has the support of four M.P.s, including most recently, Carol Hughes.

Nathan Cullen: Cullen went into January without any caucus support, but has managed to get endorsements from 2 BC M.P.s, Alex Atamenenko and Fin Donnelly.

Paul Dewar: Dewar also started the month with no caucus support, but now has the support of four M.P.s, Linda Duncan, Charlie Angus, Irene Mathyssen, and Claude Gravelle.

Thomas Mulcair: Mulcair continues to lead the way in endorsements. He gained two M.P.s, Don Davies and Ryan Cleary (who previously endorsed Robert Chisholm, who dropped out). Mulcair also lost an MP when Lise St-Denis crossed the floor to join the Liberal Party. Mulcair also got a big endorsement from Howard Hampton, former leader of the Ontario NDP.

Peggy Nash: Nash picked up two M.P. Endorsements in January, one from fellow Toronto MP, Mike Sullivan and one from Dany Morin.

Brian Topp: Topp just got one new MP endorsement in Chris Charlton.

Both Romeo Saganash and Martin Singh failed to get any endorsements in the month of January.

Since this is a geography blog, let's take a look at total political endorsements by province. By now, every province has at least one political endorsement for one of the candidates. The territories have none so far, but that could change as there is one MP from there, as well as a number of NDP MLAs in the Yukon, not to mention former leader Audrey McLaughlin.

British Columbia

B.C. Has the most amount of NDP members of any province, so who wins there will be a big factor in who becomes leader. The province has one candidate in the running, Nathan Cullen. However, he only sits in 2^nd place there- and has absolutely no endorsements in the rest of the country. BC is one of Brian Topp's best provinces, and he is heads and shoulder above everyone else:

Topp – 24

Cullen – 9

Mulcair – 7

Dewar – 2

Nash – 2

Ashton – 2

Alberta

Alberta has had just one endorsement so far. That is from their lone MP, Linda Duncan. She endorsed Paul Dewar, so he leads in that province.

Saskatchewan

Saskatchewan has the highest proportion of any NDPers in any province, but with no M.P.s, there have been few endorsements thus far. Topp, who used to work for the NDP there leads the way:

Topp – 4

Dewar – 1

Mulcair – 1

Manitoba

Manitoba continues to be a battle between Niki Ashton, who represents the province's Churchill riding, and Paul Dewar who has connections in the province. Ashton leads Dewar by one political endorsement- her own.

Ashton – 15

Dewar – 14

Mulcair – 1

Topp – 1

Nash – 1

Ontario

Ontario is a real battleground right now, with many politicians there supporting Mulcair, and two local M.P.s, Dewar and Nash. Mulcair and Dewar are currently tied for the lead at 8 endorsements.

Mulcair – 8

Dewar – 8

Nash – 6

Topp – 3

Ashton – 1

Quebec

Quebec has the most M.P.s, but not a very high membership so far. Mulcair leads the way with 29 endorsements in the province, far ahead of anyone else.

Mulcair – 29

Topp – 5

Nash – 3

Ashton – 3

Saganash – 2

New Brunswick

New Brunswick's only NDP MP, Yvon Godin endorsed Topp. However, provincial NDP leader Dominic Cardy endorsed Mulcair. As the party lacks any provincial seats, these two endorsements may be all there is unless someone like former provincial leader and MLA Elizabeth Weir makes an endorsement.

Nova Scotia

With Robert Chisholm out of the race, NDP MLAs in the province now have some choice, and so far Nash leads the way. In addition to former federal leader Alexa McDonough's endorsement, Nash has the endorsement of three MLAs.

Nash – 4

Topp – 2

Dewar – 1

Singh – 1

Prince Edward Island

The only NDP Islander to ever win a seat to the provincial assembly, Herb Dickeison endorsed Thomas Mulcair. It's the only endorsement from the province so far, and will probably be the only one.

Newfoundland and Labrador

Mulcair has two endorsements in the province. One from MP Ryan Cleary, and one from Dale Kirby, a Member of the provincial house of Assembly. Nash has the only other endorsement from the province, that of provincial NDP leader, Lorraine Michael.

Conclusion

If the NDP had primaries, like in the US- and if endorsements were indicative of member support (which it isn't, really), then this would clearly be a race up in the air. However, Mulcair would have the best shot. He currently leads in 3 provinces, and is tied in two others. Next is Topp, who leads in two and is tied in one. Then Dewar who leads in one, and is tied in another. Nash and Ashton both lead in one province each.

NDP leadership endorsement map - as of Dec 31

If the past is any indication, mapping the upcoming N.D.P. leadership race will be difficult to do. You see, the party has- at least not in recent memory ever produced any geographical breakdowns of their leadership races. This is quite unfortunate for the cartographically inclined, but I suppose it comes from the party not wanting to create any regional hostilities.

One thing we can map however, are the endorsements. The endorsements will give us a clue into how certain candidates will do in various areas. It is the next best thing to getting actual regional numbers. This is why I have created an endorsement map to show off where the regional strengths are for each of the eight candidates in the running. I do hope to keep updating the map; at least on a monthly basis until the March 24th convention in Toronto.

Revised 01/01/12

The map
On this map, I have coloured in some of the ridings, if the MP from that riding has endorsed a certain candidate. I have used symbols to indicate endorsements for other politicians, such as MLAs, past MPs and municipal politicians.

If endorsements give us any indication as to how well certain candidates are doing, then the race looks to be between Quebec MP Thomas Mulcair and former party president Brian Topp. That is what the media has kept saying as well. Mulcair's strength appears to be concentrated mostly in Quebec, which will be a problem for him if true. Quebec, despite having a majority of the NDPs MPs has few party members so far. The province has, at last count just 6000 members out of a nation wide total of 100,000. Topp also has some strength in Quebec, as well as in B.C., where he has a majority of the endorsements. He may also "win" Saskatchewan, where he used to work for the Romanow government there. If Topp wins both these provinces, he will be looking very good at winning. BC has the most NDP members out of any province, and Saskatchewan (despite having no NDP MPs) has the highest NDP memberships per capita out of any province.

Polling also suggests that Ontario MPs Peggy Nash and Paul Dewar will be strong contenders for the leadership. Neither have as many endorsements as Topp or Mulcair, however (Dewar has no MPs behind him, yet).  Nash has a smattering of support here and there. She has a few Quebec endorsements, and has secured every endorsement in her own riding (the local MPP and both city councillors), but nothing else in Ontario. She may do well in Atlantic Canada, thanks to key endorsements from former NDP leader Alex McDonough and Newfoundland and Labrador NDP leader Lorraine Michael. Atlantic Canada will be up for grabs now that former Nova Scotia MP Robert Chisholm has dropped out. While Dewar has no MPs endorse him yet, he has the support of many provincial legislators, mostly in Manitoba. He is doing a lot better there than in his home province, thanks to family connections in the province.

Also picking up quite a few endorsements is Manitoba MP Niki Ashton. She isn't considered a favourite for the race, but she will certainly be challenging Dewar for NDP votes in Manitoba where her father is a cabinet minister. She has also secured the endorsement of three Quebec MPs.

Challenging Topp's endorsement lead in BC is BC MP Nathan Cullen. While no MP has endorsed him, he has secured endorsements of a few provincial legislators. However, Cullen has no endorsements outside the province. Also with localized support is Quebec MP Romeo Saganash. He has the endorsement of two other Quebec MPs, including one from a neighbouring riding of his.

And last but least is Nova Scotia businessman Martin Singh. He has yet to receive any endorsements, but he is running a spirited campaign so far. I have heard that the is the only candidate to have opened campaign offices so far. One in Delta, BC and one in Malton, ON, close to large South Asian communities. (Singh is actually not South Asian, but a white Sikh convert). All the South Asian MLAs in BC seem to have endorsed Topp however, but one Sikh NDP provincial legislator (Jagmeet Singh, who represents Malton) hasn't made an endorsement yet. Also up for grabs for Sikh is a whole lot of Nova Scotia NDP MLAs.