Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Quebec (1867)

I've uploaded my Ontario map collection, it's now time to start Quebec. First off is 1867, of course:

Monday, May 30, 2011

Federal election maps (2004-2011)

Many thanks to S. Smith from the U.S. election atlas forum for these maps, that show the results from the last four federal elections:

Sunday, May 29, 2011

Ontario political regions: Central Brampton

After having just covered East Brampton, let's move across Dixie Rd. to what I'll call central Brampton. For this analysis, we'll call the western boundary of the region as Hurontario St and Main St. and the eastern boundary of course will be Dixie Rd.

This area was in the riding of Peel, starting in 1867. At this point, Brampton was just a village, and it was located on the western boundary of this region at Queen St. This region currently covers what was then a small section of south central Chinguacousy Twp.


1) J.H. Cameron (1867-1872)
2) Rbt. Smith (1872-1878)
3) Wm. Elliott (1878-1882)
4) Jas. Fleming (1882-1887)
5) W.A. McCulla (1887-1891)
6) Jos. Featherston (1891-1900)
7) Richard Blain (1900-1917)
8) Saml. Charters (1917-1935)
9) Gordon Graydon (1935-1953)
10) J.C. Pallett (1953-1962)
11) B.S. Beer (1962-1968)

Peel was divided in 2 in 1966. This region would fall in the northern half, which would also include parts of the Counties of Dufferin and Simcoe and would be called Peel--Dufferin--Simcoe.

11) B.S. Beer (1968-1972) continued
12) J.E. Madill (1972-1974)
13) W.R. Milne (1974-1979)

As the area got more and more people, the area would be divided once again. This region would now fall into Brampton--Georgetown, which included Brampton and the community of Georgetown.

14) J.H. McDermid (1979-1988)
In 1987, the riding of Brampton was created, and it consisted of all of the City of Brampton west of Dixie Rd. 
14) J.H. McDermid (1988-1993) continued 
15) Colleen Beaumier (1993-1997)

In 1996, Brampton was divided into three. Most of this region would fall into the new riding of Brampton Centre. The area south of Steeles and west of Kennedy would fall into the riding of Brampton West--Mississauga

16) Sarkis Assadourian (1997-2004)

In 2003, most of this region would fall into the new riding of Brampton--Springdale. The area south of Vodden St and west of Kennedy Rd would fall in the riding of Brampton West. MPs for Brampton--Springdale:

17) Ruby Dhalla (2004-2011)
18) P. Gill (2011-present)

Presently, Brampton--Springdale has a population of about 140,000, which is too large for a riding. In my analysis of East Brampton, I discussed the creation of a new riding of "Bramalea--Springdale", which would take much of the excess population here. A new riding of "Brampton Centre" can be created with the remainder of the Brampton--Springdale, and can be extended into the rest of this region to the point it has enough people.

Provincial history 
From 1987 to 1999, this area was divided into Brampton North and Brampton South, the border of which was Vodden St. to Kennedy Rd to Queen St. Before that, it was in the riding of Brampton. 

Brampton was represented by W.G. Davis from 1975 to 1985 then by R.V. Callahan from 1985 to 1987. Callahan continued to represent Brampton South until 1995 when he was replaced by T.P. Clement. Brampton North was represent by J.C. McClelland from 1987 to 1995 and then by J. Spina. Since 1999, Brampton Centre was represented by Spina until 2003 and then by Linda Jeffrey who represented Brampton Centre and Brampton--Springdale since.
Political geography (2008 election)
This region was polarized between the Liberals and the Tories. The Liberals did the best in the central part of the region, between Vodden Street in the south to almost the Sandalwood Pkwy. North of this and south of Vodden is where the Conservatives won, especially in the southwest part of the region (Peel Village), which belongs to Brampton West

Ontario political regions: East Brampton

Moving to Brampton now, my analysis takes us to the east end of the city, covering the part of Brampton east of, Dixie Rd. This includes the large subdivision of Bramalea, which makes up the majority of the area, plus the new developments to its east- commonly called "Gore", after the former township covering it (Toronto Gore Twp).

This fast growing area can be found in the riding of Bramalea--Gore--Malton. Which includes this region plus the community of Malton in Mississauga.

This area was in the riding of Peel, starting in 1867. At this point, Brampton was just a village, and it was located further west of this region, near the corner of Queen St and Main St. This region covered the southeastern corner of Chinguacousy Twp and most of the Gore of Toronto Twp. Peel consisted of Peel County, which by the 1960s became quite populous.

1) J.H. Cameron (1867-1872)
2) Rbt. Smith (1872-1878)
3) Wm. Elliott (1878-1882)
4) Jas. Fleming (1882-1887)
5) W.A. McCulla (1887-1891)
6) Jos. Featherston (1891-1900)
7) Richard Blain (1900-1917)
8) Saml. Charters (1917-1935)
9) Gordon Graydon (1935-1953)
10) J.C. Pallett (1953-1962)
11) B.S. Beer (1962-1968)

Peel was divided in 2 in 1966. This region would fall in the northern half, which would also include parts of the Counties of Dufferin and Simcoe and would be called Peel--Dufferin--Simcoe.

11) B.S. Beer (1968-1972) continued
12) J.E. Madill (1972-1974)
13) W.R. Milne (1974-1979)

As the area got more and more people, the area would be divided once again. This region would now fall into Brampton--Georgetown, which included Brampton and the community of Georgetown.

14) J.H. McDermid (1979-1988)

In 1987, further expansion divided the riding up once again. The area east of Dixie Road (this region) would now fall into Brampton--Malton (later Bramalea-Gore-Malton and Bramalea--Gore-Malton--Springdale), while the area west of Dixie would just be in Brampton riding. In 2003, the Dixie Rd. border was adjusted slightly to exclude the area north of Bovaird Dr. and west of Torbram Rd, which would be transferred to the new riding of Brampton--Springdale.

15) H. Chadwick (1988-1993)
16) G.S. Malhi (1993-2011)
17) B. Gosal (2011-present)

This region has passed between the Tories and Liberals frequently, but it should be noted the NDP finished a close 2nd in the 2011 election, and if it continues making inroads with the Sikh community (which is dominant here), could win this riding next time. 

Bramalea--Gore--Malton has around 175,000 which is huge for a riding. Expect major changes here for the next election. The community of Malton, which is located in Mississauga isolated from the rest of the city, so there may be seen a need to keep with a Brampton riding as its closer to Brampton's population. Perhaps moving the border east to around Airport Road could create a new Gore--Malton riding while the west part could be a Bramalea--Springdale riding?

Provincial history
From 1987 to 1999, this area was divided into Brampton North and Brampton South, the border of which was Queen St. Before that, it was in the riding of Brampton. 

Brampton was represented by W.G. Davis from 1975 to 1985 then by R.V. Callahan from 1985 to 1987. Callahan continued to represent Brampton South until 1995 when he was replaced by T.P. Clement. Brampton North was represent by J.C. McClelland from 1987 to 1995 and then by J. Spina. Since 1999, the area has been represented by R.S. Gill from 1999 to 2003 and then by K.S. Kular since 2003. 

Political geography (2008 election)
This area was deeply divided in this 2008 election. The Gore area voted overwhelmingly Liberal (except the rural parts of Northeast Brampton) while Bramalea was overwhelmingly Conservative. The area of Brampton east of Dixie Road but in the riding of Brampton--Springdale i.e. the community of Springdale voted overwhelmingly Liberal as well. 

2008 results by census division

About a year ago, some keen Canadian posters at the U.S. Presidential Election Atlas worked on poll-by-poll maps of the Canadian 2008 election. We also used the results to input the numbers by municipality and by census division. The following map is a sum of the products of our labour:

What's especially interesting is the areas which are smaller than ridings that voted for a party that did not win a seat there.

This census division map is using the 2001 census division borders as opposed to 2006. There were a few border changes, but nothing that would affect the map. Census divisions, are basically counties and county equivalents across the country.

Many thanks to Miles Lunn and J.P. Kirby from the U.S. election atlas forum for the data used in this map.

Friday, May 27, 2011

Ontario federal election maps (1867-1911)

I made these a while ago for inclusion in a site like this. I figure if this is going to be an atlas it should have some more maps!




Ontario political regions: East York

To the north of the Beaches is the former borough of East York. The former borough is currently spread across three ridings; Don Valley West, Toronto--Danforth and Beaches--East York. In recent years the borough has been split up into many ridings, but not so much historically.

Until 1924, the Township of East York did not exist, it was part of the greater Township of York. In 1867, what is now East York was part of the riding of York East.


1) Jas. Metcalfe (1867-1878)
2) Alfred Boultbee (1878-1882)
3) Alexander Mackenzie (1882-1892)
4) W.F. MacLean (1892-1904)
In 1903, York East was abolished, and all of York Township fell under the new riding of York South
4) W.F. MacLean (1904-1926) continued
5) R.H. McGregor (1926-1935)

In 1933, York East is re-created, and includes the new Township of East York. By 1966, the riding and the township shared a similar area, but did not have the exact same boundaries.

5) R.H. McGregor (1935-1962) continued
6) S. Otto (1962-1972)
7) I.M. Arrol (1972-1974)
8) D.M. Collenette (1974-1979)
9) R.S. Ritchie (1979-1980)
10) D.M. Collenette (1980-1984)
11) Alan Redway (1948-1988)

In 1987, the riding was dissolved into Don Valley East, Beaches--Woodbine and Broadview--Greenwood. The majority of the area not going into one specific riding. 

Beaches--Woodbine (later Beaches-East York):
12) Neil Young (1988-1993) 
13) Maria Minna (1993-2011)
14) Matt. Kellway (2011-present)

Broadview--Greenwood (later Toronto--Danforth):
12) D.J. Mills (1988-2004)
13) J.G. Layton (2004-present)

Don Valley West:
12) J.W. Bosley (1988-1993)
13) J.F. Godfrey (1993-2008)
14) Rbt. Oliphant (2008-2011) 
15) Jno. Carmichael (2011-present)

While at 110,000, East York  has an ideal riding size, so do its constituent ridings. East York in of itself is less of a community of interest than it used to be, due to amalgamation. Don Valley West has slightly more people than average, so it might be an idea to move the neighbourhood of Thorncliffe Park into Toronto--Danforth, as it has similar demographics. That neighbourhood is separated from the rest of Don Valley West by industrial areas and railroads while it is separated from Toronto--Danforth by the Don River.

Provincial history
Until 1999, East York was divided into two ridings: Don Mills and York East. York East made up the bulk of the borough, whereas Don Mills included the area north east of Taylor Creek. For the purposes of our analysis, we will look at York East, which has been in existence since 1867:
1) H.P. Crosby (1867-1874)
2) Jno. Lane (1874-1879)
3) G.W. Badgerow (1879-1886)
4) G.B. Smith (1886-1894)
5) Jno. Richardson (1894-1904)
6) Alex. McCowan (1904-1913)
7) G.S. Henry (1913-1943)
8) A.C. Macphail (1943-1945)
9) J.A. Leslie (1945-1948)
10) A.C. Macphail (1948-1951)
11) H.E. Beckett (1951-1967)
12) A.K. Meen (1967-1977)
13) R.G. Elgie (1977-1985)
14) Christine Hart (1985-1990)
15) Gary Malkowski (1990-1995)
16) J.L. Parker (1995-1999)

Since 1999, the MPPs for Beaches--East York have been Frances Lankin until 2001 and M.D. Prue since. In Toronto--Danforth they have been Marilyn Churley until 2006 then P.C. Tabuns since. In Don Valley West they have been David Turnbull until 2003 then K.O. Wynne since.

Political geography (2008 election)
The Liberals won Don Valley West and Beaches-East York, so those were their best areas. Specifically, The Liberals had their best showing in parts of Woodbine Gardens, Crescent Town and Topham Park . The NDP did their best in the Pape Village area, which is part of Toronto--Danforth, a riding they won. However, they also won many polls in Woodbine Gardens, and even one in Don Valley West, specifically in Thorncliffe Park. The Tories had their best showing in Leaside, winning just two polls outside of that area. 


Ontario political regions: The Beach(es)

The Beach or "The Beaches" (apparently there is a dispute over the name), is a neighbourhood in eastern Toronto. For my analysis, the Beaches will  generally refer to that part of Toronto bounded on the north by the former borough of East York, on the east by the former city of Scarborough, on the west by Coxwell Ave and the south by Lake Ontario. The area can currently be found in the riding of Beaches--East York. The area is one of the more left wing areas of Toronto, especially provincially. Federally it has had a history of the NDP, but the party was not able to get it back from the Liberals (who held from 1993) until forming opposition in 2011. Before winning in 1993, the Liberals hadn't actually held this seat in 101 years as it had passed between the Tories and the NDP. However, the Tories have finished third here every election since 1988.

In the early history of the area, the area was divided between the ridings of Toronto East and York East. St. Lawrence Ward, which included a thin strip of land along Lake Ontario was found in Toronto East, and included The Beaches themselves. The rest of the area was found in the riding of York East, and was at this point outside of the City of Toronto. It's difficult to determine which area had more people, but, the York East portion was geographically larger, and probably had more people over time, if not in 1867. In 1888, the village of East Toronto was incorporated, and it was found in York East.  For reference, the boundary between the two ridings was at about Queen St.

1) Jas. Metcalfe (1867-1878)
2) Alfred Boultbee (1878-1882)
3) Alexander Mackenzie (1882-1892)
4) W.F. MacLean (1892-1904)

McLean was an Independent Conservative.

In 1903, the area outside of Toronto City limits would be found in the riding of York South. St. Lawrence Ward (now called "Ward 1") remained in Toronto East. 

4) W.F. MacLean (1904-1917) continued

This region would all get annexed during this time, and by 1914 the area would find itself in the riding of York East which included all of Toronto east of Pape and Scarborough Twp.

5) Thos. Foster (1917-1921)
6) J.H. Harris (1921-1925)

In 1924, the area would be in the riding of Toronto--Scarborough.

6) J.H. Harris (1925-1935) continued

In 1934, there was a lot of redistribution in the Toronto area, and the bulk of The Beaches would be fit into the new riding of Danforth. The area west of Woodbine Ave. however would fall in the riding of Greenwood.

6) J.H. Harris (1935-1953) continued
7) R.H. Small (1953-1962)  
8) Reid Scott (1962-1968)

Danforth was abolished in 1966, and the riding of Greenwood was moved over to include all of the Beaches area formerly in Danforth

9) F.A. Brewin (1968-1979)

In 1976, the new riding of Beaches was created:

10) R.M. Richardson (1979-1980)
11) Neil Young (1980-1988)

In 1987, the new riding of Beaches--Woodbine was created. Its name was changed to Beaches--East York in 1997:

11) Neil Young (1988-1993) continued
12) Maria Minna (1993-2011)
13) Matt. Kellway (2011-present)

The riding, which also includes part of the former Borough of East York is slightly underpopulated compared to the provincial average. However, if the province is given more seats, under a new plan, the boundaries are likely not to change much.
Provincial history
A riding of Beaches existed from 1926 to 1967 and a riding of Beaches--Woodbine existed from 1967 to 1999 before matching federal boundaries. MPPs since 1926:

* T.A. Murphy (1926-1948)
* Reid Scott (1948-1951)
* W.H. Collings (1951-1961)
* R.J. Harris (1961-1967)
* J.L. Brown (1967-1971)
* T.A. Wardle (1971-1975)
* M.H. Bryden (1975-1990)
* Frances Lankin (1990-2001)
* M.D. Prue (2001-present)

Political geography (2008 election)
While irrelevant now, in the 2008 election the Liberals won much of the Beaches area, especially in the east end of the region and along the lakefront, but there was no part of The Beaches where they had overwhelming support. Meanwhile, the NDP won a few polls in the west part of the Beaches in 2008, but again no overwhelming areas. 

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Ontario political regions: Barrie

My next analysis covers Barrie. Barrie is a fast growing city north of Toronto, that has very recently become its own riding. The Tories hold it federally, and the Liberals hold it provincially. It is now a safe Tory seat federally, with the Tories getting majorities in the last two elections, and the Liberals falling to 3rd place in the 2011 election.

At confederation the Town of Barrie was in the riding of Simcoe North, although it should be noted that much of today's Barrie was in Simcoe South at the time, as Innisfil Twp. was in that riding, and it included what is now in south Barrie.

1) T.D. McConkey (1867-1872)
2) H.H. Cook (1872-1878)
3) Dalton McCarthy (1878-1898) McCarthy became an Independent in 1891 and then formed his own party, the McCarthyites in 1896.
4) L.G. McCarthy (1898-1904)

L.G. McCarthy was elected as an independent.

In 1903, the Town of Barrie was transferred to Simcoe South. At this point, what is today the northern half of Barrie would have stayed in Simcoe North, as it was in Vespra and Oro Twps.
5) H.I.S. Lennox (1904-1912)
6) W.A. Boys (1912-1925)

In 1924, Simcoe South was abolished. The riding description does not include Barrie at this point, so it's difficult to tell which riding it's in. I am going to make the assumption that it was transferred to Simcoe North, as the Town of Barrie fell within the borders of Vespra Twp at the time, and it was in Simcoe North.

6) W.A. Boys (1925-1930) continued
7) J.T. Simpson (1930-1935)
8) D.F. McCuaig (1935-1945)
9) J.H. Ferguson (1945-1957)
10) H.E. Smith (1957-1968)
11) P.B. Rynard (1968-1979)

In 1976, Barrie is transferred to the new riding of Simcoe South.

12) R.A. Stewart (1979-1988)

In 1987, Barrie is transferred to the new riding of Simcoe Centre.

13) Edna Anderson (1988-1993)
14) Edwd. Harper (1993-1997)

Harper represented the Reform Party, the only Reform MP elected in Ontario in 1993.
In 1996, Barrie was transferred into the new riding of Barrie--Simcoe--Bradford.

15) M.A. Carroll (1997-2004)

And finally in 2003, Barrie becomes its own riding, losing the municipalities of Innisfil and Bradford West Gwillimbury which was in the previous riding. 

15) M.A. Carroll (2004-2006) continued
16) P.B. Brown (2006-present)

In short, this riding has been held by the Tories for most of its history.   

Barrie is a fast growing city. In 2006, it had 130,000 people, up 25,000 from the 2001 census. It could very well be closing in on 150,000. This is too large to be just on electoral district, and therefore the riding is either going to get smaller, or divide in half (which is more likely, in my opinion). North Barrie could join with the rural area north of it, including parts of Springwater and Oro-Medonte. The Town of Innisfil would be a very good fit for the new south Barrie riding. 

Provincial history  
Barrie was located in the riding of Simcoe Centre until 1999. I'm not sure if it was in this riding for the entire existence of the riding however, but I'll list the MPPs since its creation in 1886 anyways:

* O.J. Phelps (1886-1890)
* Robt. Paton (1890-1898)
* A.B. Thompson (1898-1902)
* David Davidson (1902-1904)
* A.B. Thompson (1905-1919)
* G.H. Murdoch (1919-1923) United Farmers of Ontario
* C.E. Wright (1923-1929) 
* L.J. Simpson (1929-1940)
* Duncan McArthur (1940-1943) 
* G.G. Johnston (1943-1960)
* D.A. Evans (1960-1977)
* G.W. Taylor (1977-1985)
* E.W. Rowe (1985-1987)
* Bruce Owen (1987-1990)
* Paul Wessenger (1990-1995) 
* J.N. Tascona (1995-1999) 

Since 1999, Barrie has been in the same riding as its federal counterparts (see above), and has been represented by the following MPPs:

* J.N. Tascona (1999-2007)
* M.A. Carroll (2007-present)

Political geography (2008 election)
The Tories won the majority of the riding, but they got their best results in the south end of the city. Meanwhile, central Barrie was the best area for the Liberals, but they only won a small hand full of polls. The NDP won one poll, which covers Georgian College.  

Ontario political regions: North Wentworth

For my third analysis, I will look at what was once northern (or western?) Wentworth County, or today's northwestern suburban and rural parts of the City of Hamilton. More specifically, we'll be covering what was once the separate municipalities of Ancaster, Dundas and Flamborough. This area is represented by the riding of Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale, which consists of these three municipalities plus the neighbourhood of Westdale in the former city of Hamilton.

This area is a fairly safe Conservative region, with over half of voters supporting the Tories in the 2011 election.

At confederation, this area was represented by the riding of Wentworth North. The Township of Ancaster however, was in Wentworth South. For the purpose of this analysis though, we will follow the bulk of the region.

1) Jas. McMonies (1867-1872)
2) Thos. Bain (1872-1896)

The redistribution saw these same townships transferred to Wentworth South. Ancaster would be transferred to Wentworth North and Brant.

2) Thos. Bain (1896-1900) continued
3) E.D. Smith (1900-1904)

The 1903 redistribution united all of Wentworth County, save for the city of Hamilton.

3) E.D. Smith (1904-1908) continued
4) W.O. Sealey (1908-1911) 
5) G.C. Wilson (1911-1935)
6) F.E. Lennard Jr (1935-1940)
7) E.H. Corman (1940-1945)
8) F.E. Lennard Jr (1945-1949)

The region is split when the Townships of Ancaster and Beverley (which would later be part of Flamborough) are transferred to the new Brant--Wentworth riding. That riding just has one election in which J.A. Charlton is elected. Meanwhile, F.E. Lennard Jr is re-elected in Wentworth. The region is re-united for the 1953 election.

8 or 10) F.E. Lennard Jr (1953-1962)
9 or 11) J.R. Sams (1962-1963)
10 or 12) J.B. Morrison (1963-1968)

In 1966, the region is split into three. Ancaster goes to Hamilton--Wentworth, Beverley Twp. goes to Wellington, while Dundas and Flamborough (not including Beverley Twp.) went to the new riding of Halton--Wentworth, which we will follow here:

* J.B. Morrison (1968-1972)
* W.J. Kempling (1972-1979)

In 1976, the region is re-united in the riding of Hamilton--Wentworth
* G.D. Scott (1979-1993)
* J.H. Bryden (1993-1997)

In 1996, the region is transferred to the new riding of Wentworth--Burlington which was later re-named to Ancaster--Dundas-Flamborough--Aldershot which included this region, plus the community of Aldershot in the city of Burlington. J.H. Bryden is its only MP. In 2003, the riding loses Aldershot and gains the community of Westdale, becoming Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale:

* Russ Powers (2004-2006)
* D.S. Sweet (2006-present)

The Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale riding will probably lose a small part in the upcoming re-distribution. The region itself has at least 100,000, and would make a good riding in of itself. This would transfer Westdale back into Hamilton, and cause Hamilton Centre to revert to its old Hamilton West moniker.

Provincial history 
This region was represented by the riding of Wentworth North provincially before1999.

* T.R. Connell (1967-1971)
* D.W. Ewen (1971-1975)
* E.G. Cunningham (1975-1984)
* F. A. Sloat (1984-1985)
* C.C. Ward (1985-1990)
* D.C. Abel (1990-1995)
* A. Skarica (1995-1999)

Skarica then represented Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Aldershot until resigning in 2000. He was replaced by Liberal Ted McMeekin who has continued to represent the region in the new riding of Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale.

Political geography (2008 election)
The Tories dominated most of this riding in 2008. The only exception would be in Dundas, where the NDP and the Liberals won some polls. 

Ontario political regions: Algoma and Manitoulin Districts

Next is an analysis of Algoma and Manitoulin Districts. The boundaries of Algoma District very rarely match that of the ridings of the areas, so instead of trying to identify all the ridings these two districts have covered, we'll just take a look at the main ridings of the area. Also of note, I will not be covering the city of Sault Ste. Marie here.

Algoma has been pretty solidly Liberal for much of its federal history. It has voted Liberal continuously from 1935 until the NDP won it for the first time in 2008. In 2011, the Liberals actually finished 3rd here.  Provincially, all three parties have held parts of the region during this time frame.

In the beginning, the riding of Algoma covered all of Northern Ontario it included both today's Algoma and Manitoulin Districts.

1) W.M. Simpson (1867-1871)
2) F.W. Cumberland (1871-1872)
3) J.B. Robinson (1872-1874)
4) E.B. Borron (1874-1878)
5) S.J. Dawson (1878-1891)
6) G.H. MacDonell (1891-1896)
7) A.E. Dyment (1896-1904)

In the 1903 redistribution, Algoma was divided into Algoma East and Algoma West. For this analysis, we will just cover Algoma East, as the population of Algoma West was mostly just in Sault Ste. Marie, while Algoma East includes our base areas of rural Algoma District and Manitoulin District.

7) A.E. Dyment (1904-1908) continued
8) W.R. Smyth (1908-1917)
9) G.B. Nicholson (1917-1921)
10) J.W. Carruthers (1921-1925)
11) G.B. Nicholson (1925-1926)
12) Beniah Bowman (1926-1930)
13) G.B. Nicholson (1930-1935)
14) Thos. Farquhar (1935-1948)
15) L.B. Pearson (1948-1968)

(Green is the United Farmers of Ontario)

The 1966 redistribution created the riding of Algoma, mostly out of Algoma East and small parts of Algoma West. It was renamed Algoma--Manitoulin in 1997.

16) M.B. Foster (1968-1993)
17) B.J. St. Denis (1993-2004)

The riding was redistributed in 2003, and this region would now broadly fall in the Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing riding.

17) B.J. St. Denis (2004-2008)
18) Carol Hughes (2008-present)

The combined population for both districts, not including Sault Ste. Marie is less than 60,000 people. The riding, which includes parts of other districts, is not much bigger. The population of the region is stagnant at best. Redistribution here will depend on whether or not it is desired to have these under populated Northern ridings. If not, then a substantial boundary change could occur. If things stay the same, then not much will change in terms of borders, as the area hasn't lost that many people. 

Provincial history
Up until the ridings were changed to match their federal counterparts in 1999, this region was represented by two districts; Algoma and Algoma--Manitoulin. The region is currently in the Algoma--Manitoulin riding, as ridings in Northern Ontario were not redistributed in 2003 provincially.

Algoma--Manitoulin (1934-1999)
* W.L. Miller  (1934-1945)
* J.A. Fullerton (1945-1963)
* S.W. Farquhar (1963-1971)
* J.G. Lane (1971-1987)
* M.A. Brown (1987-1999)

The Algoma riding was created out of Algoma--Manitoulin in 1967
* B.N. Gilbertson (1967-1975)
* C.J. Wildman (1975-1999)

Following the redistribution in 1999, Brown has represented the area continuously.

Political geography (2008 election)
The NDP won polls right across these two districts in 2008. Their strongest support came from the sparsely populated northern part of Algoma District, but they won all areas except suburban Sault Ste. Marie. The Conservatives did the best in the Sault Ste. Marie area, which is technically in the Sault Ste. Marie riding. Outside of that riding, the Tories just won three polls and tied another. The Liberals only won a  handful of polls themselves, mostly on Manitoulin Island and the North Shore region. Sault Ste. Marie voted NDP in 2008 but changed hands, voting Conservative in 2011.

Monday, May 23, 2011

Ontario political regions: West Durham Region

In the run up to the provincial election, I would like to explore some of the political regions of the province. They aren't necessarily going to be riding by riding profiles, but more "communities of interest", so we can look at historical voting trends.

Today, I would like to analyze the western part of Durham Region, ie. the town of Ajax and the City of Pickering. Currently this area is split between the ridings of Ajax--Pickering and Pickering--Scarborough East.

This region saw about an 8% swing from the Liberals to the Tories in the 2011 federal election. That was good enough to turn both seats Conservative from Liberal. Provincially both seats are held by the Liberals, and are moderately safe. However, a similar provincial swing could turn these seats Tory as well.

This region was first represented by the riding of Ontario South, which also included Whitby and Oshawa. Ajax did not exist at the time, its founding occurring some 80 years later within the Township of Pickering. So up until Ajax's incorporation in 1955, we'll be following the history of the Township of Pickering.

1) T.N. Gibbs (1867-1874)
2) Malcolm Cameron (1874-1876)
3) T.N. Gibbs (1876-1878)
4) F.W. Glen (1878-1882) 

In 1882, the riding of Ontario West is created, and it includes Pickering as well as Whitchurch, Stouffville, Uxbridge and Newmarket. 


5) Geo. Wheler (1882-1884) 
6) J.D. Edgar (1884-1899)
7) I.J. Gould (1900-1904)

In 1903, Ontario West is dissolved and once again Pickering falls into Ontario West riding. 

8) Peter Christie (1904-1908) 
9) F.L. Fowke (1908-1911)
10) Wm. Smith (1911-1921)
11) L.O. Clifford (1921-1925)

In 1924, the riding is dissolved, but the new Ontario riding has very similar boundaries.

12) T.E. Kaiser (1925-1930)     
13) W.H. Moore (1930-1945) 
14) W.E.N. Sinclair (1945-1947)
15) A.H. Williams (1948-1949) 
16) W.C. Thomson (1949-1951) 
17) Michl. Starr (1952-1968) 
18) N.A. Cafik (1968-1979) 
19) T.S. Fennell (1979-1988) 
20) R.J. Soetens (1988-1993)
21) D.P. McTeague (1993-1997) 

At this point, this region would be sprawling suburbia. The combined population of both Pickering and Ajax would be too much for one riding. The new Town of Ajax was split up along Kingston Road. The area north of Kingston road would be in the riding of Pickering--Ajax--Uxbridge, while south of Kingston Road would be in the riding of Whitby--Ajax. For this study, we'll take a look at the former as it made up most of the riding. McTeauge would continue to represent the area until the next redistribution in 2003. At this point, McTeauge would run in the new riding of Pickering--Scarborough East. While the rest of the area would be in the riding of Ajax--Pickering. Mark Holland would represent the ladder. Both MPs would lose in 2011. McTeague lost to Coneliu Chisu while Holland lost to C.A. Alexander.

In summary, the area has gone between the Tories and the Liberals often history. It even voted for the CCF in the 40s when the riding included Oshawa. 

The combined population of both Pickering and Ajax in the 2006 census was 180,000. It will likely be over 200,000 come the next census. Both municipalities have roughly the same population, and are growing quickly. They may both have enough people come redistribution to be separate ridings. Having a riding represent both Scarborough and Pickering is quite awkward, and I would hope they rectify that situation. 

Provincial history
For future reference, I don't have a lot of information about where ridings were before the 1970s at this point. So, we'll have to look at more recent information. Both Pickering and Ajax were in the riding of Durham West from 1975 to 2003. The area has elected MPPs from all three parties:

* C.M. Godfrey (1975-1977)
* G.L. Ashe (1977-1987)
* N.J. Stoner (1987-1990) 
* J.P. Wiseman (1990-1995) 
* Janet Ecker (1995-1999) 

In 1999, the ridings in Ontario were redrawn to match their federal counterparts. Ecker continued to represent Pickering--Ajax--Uxbridge until losing in 2003 to Wayne Arthurs who has represented the Scarborough--Pickering East riding since 2007 after representing Pickering--Ajax--Uxbridge. Ajax--Pickering has been represented by Joe Dickson since 2007. 

Political geography (2008 election)
Since we don't have the poll by poll numbers for the '11 federal election, we can only look at the '08 numbers. The Liberals pretty much dominated the region in this election. Their strongest numbers came in urban Pickering. The Tories meanwhile had their strongest numbers in western Ajax and of course in rural Pickering.  


Ontario election 2011

I hope to keep this blog updated during the campaign period for the upcoming provincial election in Ontario which will be held Oct 6, 2011.

After the federal election in May, I can see anything happening in Ontario over the next few months. I see the NDP making some pickups as they did in the federal election, although at this point in time I do see the Tories winning

Keep in mind, though, there hasn't been a poll since March, so it's difficult to make any good predictions.

Here's my first prediction map (05/23/11)