2012 Alberta provincial election analysis

Results map

One week ago, Albertans went to the polls and elected their 12^th consecutive Progressive Conservative government in a row. While the Tories have been in power for 41 years now, this result was a massive surprise victory. Every single poll conducted during the campaign pointed to a victory by the right wing Wildrose Party. Some polls suggested they would win by up to ten percentage points. However the election result was the inverse of this. The Tories won the election in a landslide- winning the popular vote by 10%!

So, what happened?

Well, first of all, some blame has to be put on the polling companies. There is no way that going into the last weekend of the campaign the Wildrose Party was ahead by the numbers the polls were showing. You just don't get nearly 20% of voters changing their minds within a few days, especially if no large news story occurs that would derail the campaign. Sure, there were some racist and homophobic comments made by candidates, and sure they weren't condemned by leader Danielle Smith, but was that enough to convince nearly one in five Albetans to change their voting intentions in the last weekend? The comments weren't even made that close to the actual election date. And polls conducted after the comments were made still showed the Wildrose Party ahead.

One thing that may have contributed to a large late swing in voting intentions is the large number of undecideds reported in the last few polls. Clearly these were voters who were lukewarm about voting Tory, and were taking a look at the Wildrose Party but ultimately decided against such a risky vote. These undecideds must have gone en masse to the Tories just before the election.

Another factor that much of the media speculated as to why the Tories won was strategic voting by Liberals and NDPers. While it is true many regular Liberal and NDP voters voted for the Tories in this election, their minds were made up about voting Tory long before the election date. If the polls got one thing right on election day, it was the popular vote percentage for both the NDP and the Liberals. This indicates that there was no last minute swing of Liberal and NDP voters towards the Tories.

In the end, the Tories won 61 seats out of the 87 seats up for grabs. The Wildrose Party still finished second with 17 seats. The Liberals finished third with five, and the NDP won four seats. These seat totals point to a landslide victory, but the popular vote was closer. The Tories won 44% of the vote while the Wildrose Party won 34%.

The Wildrose Party was relegated mostly to rural southern Alberta, which is where they won most of their seats. All but four of their seats won were in rural southern Alberta, and only one of their 17 seats was in northern Alberta. They won just three urban seats; two in Calgary and one in Medicine Hat. This lack of success in northern Albertan and in Calgary, where they were expected to do well, resulted in their loss.

The Tories won the election by winning most of Calgary and Edmonton, as well as nearly sweeping Northern Alberta. They were especially strong in suburban Calgary and Edmonton, where voters are more socially progressive and less likely to support a party like Wildrose, but are still too right wing to vote Liberal or NDP.

The Liberals did much better than most predictors had thought. While their popular vote was around what was expected, their seat total was very efficient. They won five seats thanks to some strong candidates as well as good demographics for the party in urban ridings. The Liberals were still relegated to three seats in Calgary and two in Edmonton.

As expected, the NDP doubled their seat total to four, but were still not able to win any seats outside of Edmonton. They did win less seats and less votes than the Liberals however, and that must be seen as a disappointment for the party.

Where I went wrong.

My prediction of the Alberta election was my worst prediction ever. I will be the first to admit that it was inexcusable. I was the only predictor that got less than 50% of the ridings correct (I got only 45%). This is almost impossible to attain, because in most elections there are more than 50% of seats considered “safe”, meaning you are guaranteed to be at least half right. That wasn't the case however in this election, because of the expected Wildrose surge.

When two parties battle each other for similar voters, as was the case in this election, it can be very difficult to determine where one party will win and lose. Especially, considering a lack of historical precedent to help guide me in making a prediction. I used poll data that projected a near-10 point victory for the Wildrose Party, which resulted in a prediction of 62 seats. However, the reverse happened. The Tories won by 10 points, and they won 61 seats. While I got the parties wrong, I can at least be happy to know I predicted the fact that a 10 point victory for a party would result in a 60 seat landslide. Especially considering these two parties were duking it out for the same right wing voter. If Wildrose had won by a margin that polls were suggesting, I would have probably been very accurate.

I cannot ignore however the fact that I did get less ridings correct than other predictors. So, what did I do differently that would result in that? Most predictors took into consideration one final poll conducted by Forum Research on the day before the election which showed the two parties very close to each other, albeit with Wildrose still ahead. I made my predictions before this poll was released, and therefore did not take it into consideration. However, even if I had seen the poll, I probably would not have put much weight into it. It appeared to be an outlying poll, inconsistent with polls conducted not just by other pollsters, but one from the previous day conducted by the same Forum Research firm. Plus, the poll was conducted on a Sunday, which is probably the least reliable polling day of the week, as people are less likely to do polls on that day. I had also hypothesized that many religious Wildrose supporters were not polled because it was a Sunday, and was one of the reasons why that poll showed a low number for them. But, I was clearly wrong.

I can take solace in a few things, however. Every riding that Wildrose won, I had predicted they would. All but one seat I had predicted the Tories would win, they did. Same for the NDP. Also, I was the only major predictor to have the Liberals winning any seats, let alone the four I predicted. Out of those four, they won three plus two more I had not predicted.

Usually after an election, I analyze each riding that I got wrong. However, because I got most ridings wrong, this would be too lengthy. So, I will take a look at the ten ridings I was off by the most:

10: Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley

The fact that the Tories even won this riding has to be one of the biggest riding level surprises of the election. Why? Well, this was the second best riding for the Alberta Alliance back in the 2004 election, where they lost the seat by just 300 votes. So, it this was one of the ridings I thought Wildrose would have in the bag. However, it was not to be, as it went the same way as most of the rest of Northern Alberta. This was still a close race, however. The Tories won this seat by 200 votes, an even narrower margin than 2004. I however expected Wildrose to take it easily however, as I underestimated the Tories by 20%, and overestimated Wildrose by 15%

9. West Yellowhead

Some have described West Yellowhead as being the most left wing rural Alberta riding. That is why it wasn't a huge surprise that the Wildrose Party didn't win here. After all, it was one of their worst ridings in in 2008, getting just 4%. However, this was the riding of the Alberta Party leader, Glenn Taylor. I figured much of the left wing vote would go to him, instead of the Tories, allowing Wildrose to come up the middle and win. While Taylor did get 17% of the vote here (more than I predicted, too), the Wildrose Party underperformed my prediction by 11%, and therefore didn't have the votes to come up the middle. The Tory vote held its ground, and they outperformed my prediction by 21%.

8. St. Albert

I got this riding wrong because I thought the Wildrose Party had a strong, credible candidate in city councillor James Burrows. The seat was open, and I thought that would be enough for him to win. However, what I should have taken into consideration is the riding's large left wing base. In 2008, 46% of the riding voted for left wing parties. Neither the Liberals nor the NDP were running credible campaigns here. Where were those votes going to go? Well, they went to the PCs, who won this seat with the same percentage as in 2008. What the Tories lost to the Wildrose here, they gained back from the Liberals and NDP. Burrows underperformed my prediction by 13%, and the Tories overperformed by 21%.

7. Peace River

This riding was a surprise because of the decent showings the Wildrose and the Alberta Alliance have had here in the past. Wildrose got 11% of the vote in 2008, and the combined Alberta Alliance and Social Credit vote in 2004 was 14%. However, this remote riding in Northern Alberta is not very culturally similar to the Wildrose base in rural southern Alberta. Wildrose got just 28% of the vote here, underpolling by projection by 15%. The Tories held their ground, getting 21% more than I had predicted.

6. Calgary-North West

An open seat, in suburban Calgary, with the Wildrose ahead in the polls in the city? Why wouldn't one predict this seat go Wildrose? They did get a strong 15% here in 2008, as well. Maybe because the riding had a large Liberal vote willing to go PC to stop Wildrose. Well, that's what happened. The Liberal vote collapsed here, going from 30% in in 2008 down to 7%. This benefited the Tory candidate who actually increased the popular vote for the PCs from 46% to 52%. This was 22% higher than what I predicted. Wildrose was 11% lower than my prediction.

5. Calgary-Glenmore

This riding was another big surprise on election night. After all, the Wildrose had already won this seat in a by-election in 2009. So, not only did they have an incumbent in former leader Paul Hinman, they also had the benefit of already having won the riding. However, on election night Hinman only increased his portion of the vote by 1% from his by-election victory. However, that was only good enough for 38% of the vote. What did him in however was strategic voting from the Liberals. This riding had a large Liberal based that collapsed into the Tories. The Tories gained 22% from their by-election showing to secure 49% of the vote. That was 22% more than I had thought. Meanwhile, The Wildrose underperformed my prediction by 14%.

4. Calgary-GreenwayWhat really did in the Wildrose Party in this riding was their controversial candidate, Ron Leech. Leech had made comments during the campaign suggesting he had an advantage in the race, because he was white. His opponent was Manmeet Bhullar, a Sikh. In the end it was Bhullar who had the advantage, winning the race easily. The Tories increased their proportion of the vote by 11% from the redistributed 2008 results in this new riding. This came thanks to Liberal voters which made up 30% of the riding in 2008, but which collapsed to 11%. It was difficult for me to figure out how much those racist comments would hurt Leech. In the end, I still predicted he would win, which was a mistake. Bhullar got 22% higher than my prediction, while Leech underperformed by 17%.

3. Red Deer-South

With the Wildrose Party having a large lead in southern Alberta, it was easy to predict that Red Deer-South would be caught up in their surge. However, on election night, urban ridings, even in Southern Alberta stayed with the Tories. This included both Red Deer ridings. Red Deer-South was not caught up in the Wildrose wave, and thus I got this prediction wrong. Wildrose got 35% of the vote, 12% lower than I predicted. The Tories got 44% here, 23% higher than I expected. This was partially thanks to a collapsed Liberal vote, which went down from 27% down to 7%.

2. Calgary-Varsity

This was a Liberal seat that was being vacated by its outgoing incumbent Harry Chase. This left the riding open, and hard to predict. I figured Wildrose would win it, since they were ahead in Calgary. However, those Liberal voters went to the Tories en masse, securing the victory for their candidate, Donna Kennedy-Glans. The Tories got just 37% of the vote here in 2008, but this was increased to 46% on election night. The Liberals still held their own, but their share of the vote shrank from 47% to 21%. Wildrose wasn't even strong enough to win this, getting just 26% of the vote. I thought Tory voters would strategically vote Liberal in this riding, instead of the other way around, which is why I messed up here. I overestimated the Liberals by 5 points, while I underestimated the Tories by 24%! And, I overestimated the Wildrose Party by 15%.

1. Banff-Cochrane

Finally, the riding that I got the most wrong was Banff-Cochrane. This riding was the only rural riding in Southern Alberta to not go Wildrose. I adjusted my numbers in this riding as if it was just like the rest of Southern Alberta, but the riding is very different from the rest of the region. It is more left wing, shall we say, as it includes some resort communities like Banff. However, the riding was an open seat, meaning I thought the Tories wouldn't do very well at all. That's where I made my first mistake. 49% of voters in this riding in 2008 voted for left wing parties. And they weren't going to vote Wildrose. So while the Wildrose candidate managed to get 37% of the vote, many left wing voters held their nose and voted Tory to circumvent this. The Tories won the seat with 42% of the vote, a loss of just 7% of the vote. I had them only getting 15% of the vote (a 27% difference). This was a big error on my part, I'll admit. I was closer with my Wildrose numbers though, just overestimating them by 7%. I also overestimated the Liberals and NDP by 10% and 12% respectively to really blow this one. I am however, comforted by the fact that I did say if the Tories were going to win one riding in southern Alberta, it was going to be this one.

Results analysis

With my failed predictions out of the way, it's time to look at what actually happened to get an insight of party strengths and weaknesses on election night. I have provided maps for each of the four main parties, showing their strengths and their weaknesses.

PC strength

Progressive Conservatives

On election night, the Tories saw their strongest showing in suburban Edmonton and Calgary. If you think about it, these are the types of voters that feel the most at home with the PCs. The are economically conservative, but socially moderate. Too moderate to be attracted to the Wildrose Party. The Tories also did well in Northern Alberta, but won most of their races in that region by close margins. If the WRP wants to win in the future, it will come by winning the north.

The Tories saw their weakest numbers in rural southern Alberta and in the urban cores of Edmonton and Calgary. In rural southern Alberta, they were outflanked on their right by the Wildrose Party. In urban ridings in Calgary they were outflanked on the left by the Liberals, and in Edmonton they were outflanked by the Liberals and the NDP.

Wildrose strength

Wildrose

The Wildrose Party saw their strenghth relegated to rural southern Alberta. A sparse land of cowboys and farmers. This areas is one of the most right wing in the county, and is the most receptive to the Wildrose Party. Outside this rural zone, they won just one northern riding (Lac La Biche-St. Paul Two Hills), two ridings in suburban Calgary, and Medicine Hat. Wildrose still did quite well in Northern Alberta, and in southern Calgary, two areas they will need to actually win seats to win the election.

The worst areas for Wildrose were in Edmonton and in central Calgary. The City of Edmonton was a dead zone for the party. Even though some polls had the party leading in the city, when push came to shove, they were not able to even break 25% in any city riding. In all but a few ridings, the party was did not even break 25% of the vote. We know Wildrose did poorly in 2008 in Edmonton, and despite the polls they did poorly once again. The party's next poorest area was in a handful of central Calgary ridings which were Liberal-PC races. The demographics of those ridings were not conducive to supporting a party like Wildrose.

Liberal strength

Liberals

2012 was a horrible election for the Liberals, who were lucky to win the five seats that they did. The party won two seats in Edmonton and three in Calgary. Save for a few ridings, most of their strength was concentrated in the two major cities. Edmonton was the best part of the province for the Liberals, despite winning less seats there than in Calgary. There were only five ridings in the city where they did not break 10%. Four of those ridings were won by the NDP. Calgary was the next best region for the Liberals. There were nine ridings in the city where they broke 10%, located mostly in the central urban part of the city, and in the eastern part of the city where there's more immigrants.

The worst area for the Liberals was of course everything else. Outside of Edmonton and Calgary there were only five ridings where the Liberals broke 10%. Three of those ridings were still urban in nature, being in St. Albert, Red Deer and Lethbridge. The other two were located in the western part of the province where there are more left leaning communities like Banff. Rural Southern Alberta was the worst of the worst for the Liberals. In rural ridings south of Red Deer, only in Banff-Cochrane and the semi-urban Cypress-Medicine Hat riding did the Liberals even get more than 3% of the vote.

NDP strength

NDP

Much like the Liberals, the City of Edmonton was the best part of the province for the NDP. Unlike the Liberals however, the NDP was dead in the water in Calgary. Edmonton was where the party won all four of its seats. The NDP broke 10% in all but five ridings in Edmonton. All five of those ridings were located in the more suburban southwest corner of the city. Their strongest ridings were of course in the urban part of the city. Outside of Edmonton, the NDP broke 10% in only six ridings, including both Lethbridge ridings. Outside of Edmonton, the best riding for the NDP was Lethbridge-West where their candidate, Shannon Phillips finished second, losing by 1100 votes.

Suburban and exurban Calgary was the worst area in the province for the NDP. The party received less than 5% of the vote in nearly every single one of these ridings. In Calgary, the NDP only broke 6% in three ridings. Rural Alberta was the next worst area for the NDP, especially in Central Alberta. In Central Alberta, the NDP only broke 6% in four ridings.

Alberta 2012 provincial election results

Final results

Party		Leader		Seats	Popular Vote	%
Prog. Cons.		Alison Redford		61	567,053	43.95
Wildrose		Danielle Smith		17	442,431	34.29
Liberal		Raj Sherman		5	127,643	9.89
N.D.P.		Brian Mason		4	126,755	9.82
Alberta Party		Glenn Taylor		0	17,171	1.33
Evergreen		Larry Ashmore		0	5,082	0.39
Social Credit		Len Skowronski		0	294	0.02
Communist		Naomi Rankin		0	210	0.02
Separation Party		Bart Hampton		0	68	0.01
Independents		N/A		0	3,511	0.27
	Turnout: 57%			Seat %	Popular vote %
Leaders
Key

2012 Alberta election - final prediction.

Final prediction map.

I've read your comments, I've analyzed the polls, and I've read the tea leaves. It's time for my final prediction of the Alberta election being held tomorrow.

Since my last projection, the Progressive Conservatives have made a small come back in polls, but it shouldn't be enough for them to overtake the Wildrose Party which appears to be headed for a majority government. Polls currently show the Tories in the low 30s, while the Wildrose Party has been pretty consistently polling at 41%. From the looks of it, the NDP should finish 3^rd, but the Liberals wont be far behind. Both parties are polling in the low teens.

Anyways, I've tried to take a look at every riding to try and think who will win in each one, and to project how much each candidate will get. I've taken a look a regional polling as well as comments I've read either on my blog, being emailed to me, or on other websites. I hope I have compiled the most accurate prediction of the election. However, this election has been very hard to predict. With an upstart party like the Wildrose coming out of nowhere, it has been tricky to determine not so much where they will win, but where they won't. I'd like to thank everyone who provided we with their two cents worth.

And now my final predictions (I do reserve the right to change my predictions up until polls open tomorrow, if there are any glaring errors):

Riding	PC	WRP	Lib	NDP	Oth	Winning candidate
Airdrie	34	51	6	7	2	Rob Anderson
Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater	42	41	5	12	-	Jeff Johnson
Banff-Cochrane	15	44	24	19	-	Tom Copithorne
Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock	37	47	6	8	2	Link Byfield
Battle River-Wainwright	44	47	5	5	1	Dave Nelson
Bonnyville-Cold Lake	44	45	5	8	-	Roy Doonanco
Calgary-Acadia	39	42	11	6	2	Richard Jones
Calgary-Bow	34	46	12	6	2	Tim Dyck
Calgary-Buffalo	25	32	34	7	2	Kent Hehr
Calgary-Cross	38	40	10	10	2	Hardyal Mann
Calgary-Currie	26	39	21	7	8	Corrie Adolph
Calgary-East	34	43	13	8	1	Jesse Minhas
Calgary-Elbow	39	37	15	6	3	Alison Redford
Calgary-Fish Creek	38	45	11	6	-	Heather Forsyth
Calgary-Foothills	34	43	18	5	-	Dustin Nau
Calgary-Fort	36	43	15	8	2	Jeevan Mangat
Calgary-Glenmore	26	53	15	6	-	Paul Hinman
Calgary-Greenway	32	49	11	8	-	Ron Leech
Calgary-Hawkwood	27	47	13	7	6	David Yager
Calgary-Hays	37	46	11	6	-	Wayne Anderson
Calgary-Klein	26	44	13	15	2	Jeremy Nixon
Calgary-Lougheed	38	45	11	6	-	John Carpay
Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill	34	46	12	6	2	Roy Alexander
Calgary-McCall	23	40	27	6	3	Grant Galpin
Calgary-Mountain View	19	33	38	8	2	David Swann
Calgary-North West	29	49	12	6	4	Chris Challis
Calgary-Northern Hills	37	41	16	6	-	Prasad Panda
Calgary-Shaw	35	46	11	6	2	Jeff Wilson
Calgary-South East	39	46	10	5	-	Bill Jarvis
Calgary-Varsity	22	41	26	7	4	Rob Solinger
Calgary-West	31	48	12	5	4	Andrew Constantinidis
Cardston-Taber-Warner	14	74	2	10	-	Gary Bikman
Chestermere-Rocky View	42	48	6	4	-	Bruce McAllister
Cypress-Medicine Hat	26	49	13	12	-	Drew Barnes
Drayton Valley-Devon	39	45	6	10	-	Dean Shular
Drumheller-Stettler	32	53	3	11	2	Rick Strankman
Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley	25	57	2	16	-	Kelly Hudson
Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview	23	27	8	41	1	Deron Bilous
Edmonton-Calder	29	24	9	35	3	David Eggen
Edmonton-Castle Downs	36	29	19	14	2	Thomas Lukaszuk
Edmonton Centre	15	28	34	23	-	Laurie Blakeman
Edmonton-Decore	29	31	23	17	-	Chris Bataluk
Edmonton-Ellerslie	33	32	16	16	3	Naresh Bhardwaj
Edmonton-Glenora	24	20	16	34	6	Ray Martin
Edmonton-Gold Bar	29	22	18	28	3	David Dorward
Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood	14	26	7	50	3	Brian Mason
Edmonton-Manning	32	29	13	23	3	Peter Sandhu
Edmonton-McClung	32	29	26	10	3	David Xiao
Edmonton-Meadowlark	32	27	29	10	2	Bob Maskell
Edmonton-Mill Creek	42	28	13	14	2	Gene Zwozdesky
Edmonton-Mill Woods	27	30	18	18	7	Joanne Autio
Edmonton-Riverview	23	28	31	16	2	Arif Khan
Edmonton-Rutherford	26	31	25	13	5	Kyle McLeod
Edmonton-South West	48	28	17	5	2	Matt Jeneroux
Edmonton-Strathcona	12	25	12	49	2	Rachel Notley
Edmonton-Whitemud	42	27	19	9	2	David Hancock
Fort McMurray-Conklin	35	39	15	10	-	Doug Faulkner
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo	32	42	16	10	-	Guy Boutilier
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville	40	44	4	10	2	Shannon Stubbs
Grande Prairie-Smoky	34	49	5	11	1	Todd Loewen
Grande Prairie-Wapiti	40	41	5	10	1	Ethane Jarvis
Highwood	34	57	4	5	-	Danielle Smith
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake	29	50	4	15	2	Kerry Towle
Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills	38	43	7	12	-	Shayne Saskiw
Lacombe-Ponoka	34	50	5	9	2	Rod Fox
Leduc-Beaumont	43	34	8	12	3	George Rogers
Lesser Slave Lake	37	43	10	9	1	Darryl Boisson
Lethbridge-East	21	45	20	14	-	Kent Prestage
Lethbridge-West	23	38	11	26	2	Kevin Kinahan
Little Bow	21	65	3	11	-	Ian Donovan
Livingstone-Macleod	27	52	7	13	1	Pat Stier
Medicine Hat	13	49	24	13	1	Blake Pedersen
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills	25	65	1	9	-	Bruce Rowe
Peace River	35	43	6	16	-	Alan Forsyth
Red Deer-North	23	48	12	15	2	Randy Weins
Red Deer-South	21	47	17	13	2	Nathan Stephan
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre	29	54	5	12	-	Joe Anglin
Sherwood Park	41	31	9	10	9	Cathy Oleson
Spruce Grove-St. Albert	46	35	9	10	-	Doug Horner
St. Albert	33	34	12	10	11	James Burrows
Stony Plain	41	38	6	11	4	Ken Lemke
Strathcona-Sherwood Park	51	32	7	10	-	Dave Quest
Strathmore-Brooks	38	49	2	10	1	Alex Wychopen
Vermilion-Lloydminster	34	54	4	7	1	Danny Hozack
West Yellowhead	24	37	12	12	15	Stuart Taylor
Wetaskiwin-Camrose	41	44	6	10	1	Trevor Miller
Whitecourt-Ste. Anne	32	55	5	8	-	Maryann Chichak

Analyzing the toss ups (ridings projected to be within 5%)

Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater

Perhaps I should have put this riding in my list of races to watch? With recent polling suggesting the Tories have a bump in the polls in Northern Alberta, they will probably win ridings like this one, where they got a significant percentage of the vote (and where Wildrose didn't) in 2008. Especially considering this is a riding bordering Edmonton, it is probably more moderate and not Wildrose territory. I predict Tory incumbent Jeff Johnson will keep his seat. 

 

Battle River-Wainwright

I struggled with my decision here. I had this riding as a toss up in my last projection. After I factored in recent poll changes, the Tories got the edge in this riding. But, that didn't set well with my gut feeling. It's a fairly rural riding, and not too “northern” in character, as it is in the southern part of Northern Alberta.. While near Edmonton, it sits just outside of Edmonton's moderating influences. Incumbent Tory MLA Doug Griffiths did get a huge percentage (79%) in 2008, and he is a cabinet minister. But I think the Wildrose Party will get the edge here. 

 

Bonnyville-Cold Lake

This riding was won big time by Tory neophyte Genia Leskiw in 2008 with a massive 76% of the vote. However, she is a one term incumbent, and is not a cabinet minister. Her opponent, Ray Doonanco looks to be a credible opponent with some political experience. Now, this riding, while in rural Alberta may still back the Tories, as it has a moderate streak, having voted Liberal in the 1993 provincial election. But, I have to think Wildrose will win this. 

 

Calgary-Acadia

This is a semi-suburban Calgary riding, meaning it could be a riding that the Tories could hold on to. Their candidate is Jonathan Denis, a current cabinet minister. Wildrose didn't do so well here in 2008 due to the inclusion of another well known right wing candidate in the race (Craig Chandler). I think this will be one of the many Calgary ridings caught up in the Wildrose wave tomorrow.

Calgary-Buffalo

I had to take a second look at this riding, because, as a very urban, downtown riding, it didn't seem like the type of riding that will go Wildrose. And to add to that, the WRP candidate doesn't appear to be running a very good campaign. I think that while in most of Calgary, many Liberals will strategically vote Tory to stop Wildrose, it will be in Liberal ridings like this that Tories vote Liberal to stop Wildrose. Or at least, Liberals will not switch their vote.

Calgary-Cross

Long time incumbent Tory Yvonne Fritz may have held this riding for a long time, but she in trouble here. This suburban Calgary riding is in a suburban part of the city, which means it will be favourable to Wildrose. The Wildrose candidate is Hardyal Singh “Happy” Mann, a Sikh. He appears to be a very strong candidate. Let's hope racism doesn't play a factor in this riding.

Calgary-Elbow

Tory Premier Alison Redford looked like she was in trouble in her own riding for the entire campaign. Now however, I think with the Tories getting a bump in Calgary, she will be able to retain her seat.

Calgary-Mountain View

Word is the Liberals are still strong here and are expected to win this urban Calgary riding. I don't think the demographics are right here for a Wildrose pick up, and so I'm going with Liberal incumbent David Swann to win this.

Calgary-Northern Hills

This is a newly created riding in the northern suburban part of Calgary. The Wildrose Party are running a strong candidate in Prasad Panda against one term Tory incumbent Teresa Woo-Paw. Panda should win here, and racism shouldn't play a factor because both candidates are visible minorities.

Edmonton-Decore

A really tough call in this suburban Edmonton riding. Previously a Liberal-PC race, this riding is now a 3 way race with the Wildrose factored in. As the anti-Wildrose voters will have difficulty coalescing between one candidate, Wildrose candidate Chris Bataluk I predict will come up the middle to take this riding. This area doesn't seem to be as hostile to the Wildrose, giving the Alberta Alliance 8% of the vote here in 2004, and it is a suburban part of the city. The Tory incumbent, Jill Sarich is a strong MLA, but she is a one term incumbent.

Edmonton-Ellerslie

At first glance, I thought that this riding might go for the Wildrose. It is after a suburban riding. However, it is a bit different then most Edmonton suburban ridings. While the Wildrose/Alberta Alliance have had good numbers here before (well, better than average), there seems to be a cap at how many voters in this riding are willing to vote for a right wing party such as Wildrose. After all federally, this was Liberal David Kilgour's area during the Reform Party days of the 1990s. Apparently the Liberals and NDP are not running serious campaigns here, and so many of their supporters will vote Tory this time to stop the Wildrose.

Edmonton-Gold Bar

This one was really a tough call, but I'll have to give the Tories the edge here. Their candidate is David Dorward, who ran for the Tories back in 2008 and also ran for mayor in 2010. He is a well known commodity in Edmonton, and therefore has the edge. The NDP is also running a strong campaign in this riding, and might be able to pull off an upset here. However, numbers are not in their favour, as they have never done well in this seat provincially. But, the NDP does hold this area federally, so don't be surprised if the NDP does win this.

Edmonton-Manning

This seat is held by one-term Tory incumbent Peter Sandhu. This is a suburban seat, but one that doesn't have an overwhelming right wing vote, and therefore it will be difficult for the Wildrose to pick up. Sandhu should be able to keep this seat.

Edmonton-McClung

According to my model, this is looking like a close three-way race. This is a suburban, somewhat conservative seat in the southwest of the city, but has backed the Liberals in the past. In fact, the Liberal candidate, Mo Elsalhy is a former MLA for this riding. Wildrose has previously been average here, meaning they should get about the city-wide average of the party. This gives one-term Tory MLA David Xiao the edge.

Edmonton-Meadowlark

This is the seat of Liberal leader Raj Sherman, who was elected in 2008 as a Tory. That made predicting what will happen in this seat very difficult. This seat has voted Liberal in the past, but all signs are pointing to Sherman's defeat at this point. So that asks the question, who will win then? Between the Tories and the Wildrose, the Tories have the stronger candidate in former MLA Bob Maskell.

Edmonton-Mill Woods

Mill Woods, in Edmonton's southeast end looks like it might go Wildrose this election. Why? Well, first off, they've had slightly above average results here in the past. Secondly, this is a rather suburban riding. But most importantly, the incumbent Carl Benito lost his Tory nomination race and is running as an independent. He is a controversial person, so he might not siphon that many votes from his Tory competition, but it should be enough to allow Wildrose candidate Joanne Autio to win the race.

Edmonton-Riverview

This was another difficult riding to predict. The riding has been Liberal since it was created, but its popular incumbent, and former Liberal leader Kevin Taft is retiring. This has left the seat open, and vulnerable as the Liberals sink in the polls. I do know the NDP is targeting this riding, and will certainly hurt the Liberal's chances here. According to ChangeAlberta though, Liberal candidate Arif Khan still holds the edge here over the NDP candidate. Vote splitting might cause the Tories or the Wildrose to win this riding, but I don't think either party has the votes in this riding to win.

Edmonton-Rutherford

This seat has previously seen many close races between the Liberals and the Tories. What better riding for the Wildrose to win, by coming up the middle? The race between the Tories and Liberals is an '08 re-match between current Tory MLA Fred Horne and former Liberal MLA Rick Miller. With both parties down in the polls, it should allow Wildrose candidate Kyle McLeod to come up the middle and win.

Fort McMurray-Conklin

This open seat might end up rather close, as it is a race between two strong candidates. It will be interesting to see how this riding, which is full of people from out of province will vote. Right wing parties have traditionally done poorer in the area. Having said that, with Wildrose ahead in the polls and running former Wood Buffalo mayor Doug Faulkner, they should be able to win the riding.

Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville

This riding proves to be a tough fight between two credible candidates. It's an open seat (vacated by former Premier Ed Stelmach), so it's anyone's guess who will win. It's just outside Edmonton, so it might be moderated by it, but it also has a large rural portion that will back Wildrose. I think I feel more comfortable picking the Wildrose to win this seat.

Grande Prairie-Wapiti

The math shows this as a close race, with incumbent Tory MLA Wayne Drysdale having a small edge in this riding. However, I think he might lose. He is just a one term incumbent, and the Wildrose candidate will of course have a great opportunity to win it. But in analyzing past voting patterns, it appears that both Grande Prairie ridings normally vote very similarly. With the other Grande Prairie riding (Grande Prairie-Smoky) projected to go WRP, I will have to say this one will as well.

Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills

This is one of those ridings that went Liberal in 1993, indicating that it has a progressive streak that might mean the Wildrose Party could lose this seat. However, when the Alberta Alliance ran here in 2004, they got more than twice the provincial average in support, showing that they have a base of strength here. I predict Wildrose candidate Shayne Saskiw will be the victor here.

Sherwood Park

This open seat appears to be quite the battle. You have the former mayor of Stratchona County Cathy Oleson running for the Tories (who lost her bid for re-election in 2010) against a young Wildrose candidate in Garnett Genuis. Oleson gets the advantage in my books due to her experience. Plus right wing independent candidate James Ford is running, and is well known in the area for his near-attempts to win a seat in federal parliament. He is sure to keep Genuis from winning.

St. Albert

I want to give the Wildrose candidate, James Burrows the edge in this riding. He has the more experience in this open race, over Tory Stephen Khan, as Burrows is a city councillor. That doesn't mean the Tories might not win this seat, as Wildrose has only done average here in the past, while the riding has a significant Liberal base that has to go somewhere. Both the Liberals and the NDP do not have strong campaigns.

Stony Plain

This may be an open seat, but that doesn't mean that the Wildrose Party will necessarily pick it up. It's an Edmonton suburban riding that will no doubt be moderated by its influence. But most importantly, the Tories have the stronger candidate here in Stony Plain mayor Ken Lemke. I predict the Tories hold the seat.

Wetaskiwin-Camrose

This riding may only be close because of the 65% support that Tory incumbent Verlyn Olson received in 2008. However, he is up against a formidable opponent in Wildroser Trevor Miller, a county councillor. Olson is just a one term incumbent, and may be perceived as a moderate because he ran for the federal Progressive Conservative party at one point. I predict Miller wins. 

Totals chart:

Changes do not add up because I had projected four ties last time.