Toronto--Danforth by-election guide

Riding map.

Tomorrow, residents of Toronto—Danforth will be going to the polls to elect a new Member of Parliament in the first by-election of the 41^st Parliament. The riding has been vacant since last August, upon the death of its last MP, former NDP leader Jack Layton.

Over the last few months, I have done an analysis of the riding's demographics and boundary history. Today, I'll be discussing the last few elections (with maps), as well as a brief synopsis of the candidates, and even a prediction.

The riding under its current boundaries has existed since the last redistribution in 2004. Before that, Toronto--Danforth's boundaries were quite similar, but some of the current riding (the southeast corner) was in the riding of Beaches--East York. Prior to the 2004 election, Toronto--Danforth was represented by Liberal Dennis Mills, while Beaches--East York was represented by Maria Minna. Both had won their previous elections in 2000 quite handily. Mills defeated the NDP's candidate, Paula Turtle, a labour lawyer. Mills won 52% of the vote, while Turtle won 28%. Turtle's only strength was in the Riverdale nieghbourhood. The rest of the riding was dominated by Mills. In 2000, every poll in Beaches--East York, including the part now in Toronto--Danforth was won by Liberal MP Maria Minna. 

2000

The map at left shows the polls where the Liberals (Mills and Minna) won in red, compared to the polls where the NDP won (Turtle) in orange. The map shows the present riding boundaries. The thicker black line shows where the boundary between Toronto--Danforth and Beaches--East York was. 

The map is not shaded, as I just took the information from the Pundit's Guide. However, in the very least it shows the Liberal dominance in the riding at the time, and also shows that the NDP was able to get at least a cluster of polls together in the Broadview area.

2004

In 2003, former Toronto city councillor Jack Layton became leader of the federal N.D.P. No MP stood aside for him to take a seat in the House of Commons. Instead, Layton waited for the 2004 election the following year to try and get elected. Layton chose the riding of Toronto--Danforth to run. The riding had been the strongest in the city for the NDP in the past, and was also the riding that encompassed Layton's former seat on Toronto City Council. Nevertheless, he still had an uphill challenge trying to unseat the popular incumbent, Dennis Mills. 

2004

Layton did manage to eek out a victory in the riding, by a narrow 2,400 vote margin. Layton won 46%, to Mills' 41%. As you can see from the map at left, the riding ended up being quite polarized between the north and the south. 

The south part of the riding was represented by Layton on Toronto City Council, which is probably why his biggest numbers came from that area. Mills had his strongest support in the north part of the riding. Also, Layton won all the polls from the former Beaches--East York riding which hadn't previously been represented by Mills.

Layton's best poll was the one between Bain Ave and Sparkhall Ave. This poll is home to the Bain Avenue Co-op. Mills' best poll was the nearby Riverdale hospital.

2006

By the 2006 election, Layton had now been leader for three years, and the riding became more safe for him. However, the Liberals were eager to take the riding back, as it was the only riding in the city they did not have. To oppose Layton, they looked for a star candidate, and found lawyer Deborah Coyne, who was a member of the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada at the time. 

2006

Coyne would not be the strong candidate that Mills was, and couple that with the nation-wide decline of the Liberal Party at the time, she did not pose that much of a threat to Layton. Layton increased his vote total to 48%, while Coyne received 34% of the vote. The margin of victory was over 7,000 votes. 

The Liberal strength in the riding again came from the north. But as you can see, the NDP encroached on this area, relegating most of the Liberal support to the more wealthier polls along the Don River. 

Once again, Layton's best poll was the one between Bain and Sparkhall. The Liberals only got a majority of the vote in two polls. The best Liberal poll was along Torrens Ave between Broadview and Pape, in Pape Village. 

2008 

By the time of the next election in 2008, Layton's seat had become even safer. Liberal fortunes were down even more across the country, and the NDP was up. Layton had been joined in parliament by fellow Toronto MPs Peggy Nash and spouse, Olivia Chow in his caucus, who had each won their elections in 2006. The Liberals tried to challenge Layton again, but they chose a weaker candidate, and put less resources into the race. 

2008

For their candidate, the Liberals chose Andrew Lang, son of former Saskatchewan MP Otto Lang. Lang was the manager of stakeholder relations for the Ontario Chiropractic Association.

Once again, the Liberals would be no match for Layton. The NDP leader once again beat out his Liberal rival by 7,000 votes. However, he did go down in percentage of the popular vote, to 45%. Lang however received 29%, which was also down for the Liberals. These decreased can be attributed the strong Green Party candidacy of Sharon Howarth, who finished 3rd, ahead of the Tories with 13% of the vote. 

The map shows much lighter orange shades for the NDP, as their vote share went down. However, they still picked up polls from the Liberals, whose vote share also went down. The Liberals did pick up some former NDP polls however, including a strong showing in the Broadview neighbourhood, where if you recall, was the only part of the riding the NDP won back in 2000. This is where the increase in the Green support in 2008 hurt the NDP the most. 

The Liberals were relegated to only a handful of polls in their previous strongholds in the north part of the riding. In fact their strongest polls didn't come from the area along the Don River like they had in 2006, but in Greek Town.

The best poll for the NDP in 2008 was not the Bain Ave co-op anymore. The Greens got a sizable percentage of the vote there, which ate into NDP support. The best NDP poll was on the south end of Blake St, which is an impoverished area of the riding. The demographic of this area is not the type to vote Green, and therefore the NDP was not harmed there by the increase in Green support. The strongest Liberal poll was once again the Riverdale Hopital, where they got 50% of the vote.

2011

The 2011 election saw the NDP surge across the country, which vaulted the party into opposition status. Jack Layton's own riding of Toronto--Danforth was not immune to the NDP surge of 2011. Once again, Layton would be opposed by Andrew Lang, who he had beaten in 2008. 

2011

The 2011 election in Toronto--Danforth wasn't even close to being close. Layton defeated Lang by nearly 21,000 votes. He increased his share of the vote to an unprecedented 61% of the vote. Lang on the other hand, received 18% of the vote, barely hanging on to second place. The third place Conservative candidate, Katarina Von Koenig was close behind Lang with 14% of the vote.

The 2011 election map was indicative of the strong result that Layton received. He won every single poll in the riding. His strength was once again in the south of the riding, but he was able to win everywhere. Layton's worst neighbourhoods were in the far north along the Don River, and in Greek Town, two areas of past Liberal strength. 

Layton's strongest poll was once again the Bain Ave co-op, where he won 83% of the vote. Layton's worst poll was in Woodbine Heights, where he got 41% of the vote, but still won it. The Conservatives were strong in the neighbourhood, and nearly won the poll, coming 10 votes short with 36% of the vote.

2011 - 2nd place

 Because Layton won every single poll in 2011, I made a second map showing who finished 2nd in each poll. Note how the Conservatives were strong in those wealthier Don River polls where the Liberals once had strength. The Liberals however were stronger in more ethnic neighbourhoods, like Greek Town. And you will see on the map, one poll coloured Green. Yes, that is the infamous Bain Ave co-op where Layton got 83%, but the Greens were in 2nd place with 8%.

NDP change (2008-2011)

I also made a map showing the change in the NDP vote between 2008 and 2011. The NDP increased their share of the vote in every single polling district between the last two elections. Although, there were some areas that were more averse to switching their votes to NDP than others. Woodbine Heights for example didn't swing that much. Another area is that Blake St poll, where the NDP was so strong, that their vote share had been nearly capped anyways.

2012

And so, we've come to the 2012 by-election. The NDP is still polling relatively well across Canada, depending on which pollster you ask. They have dropped in support since 2011, and with out their fearless leader representing the riding, it is quite likely the NDP will see a decrease in their support from the 61% that Layton got last year.  The NDP is running law professor and human rights lawyer Craig Scott. He is quite a strong candidate, but perhaps not the star candidate one might expect would want to run in such a safe seat. Scott does face weak opposition, though. The Liberals are running Grant Gordon, an advertising executive. The Tories are running Andrew Keyes, a communications consultant. The Greens are running community activist Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu.

The real test for the Liberals will be if they can capitalize on their recent gains in the polls, especially in Ontario. It is not realistic that they will win the riding, but a win for them will be a strong 2nd place showing. The Tories have even less of a shot at the riding, but it would be a huge win for them to overtake the Liberals in 2nd place. They did come close in 2011. The Greens will want to increase their share of the vote from the 6% they got in 2011. A 3rd place showing like they got in 2008 would be a huge victory for the party that has been largely ignored recently.  As for the NDP, it would not be a simple victory for the party to just win the by-election. Anything close would be seen as a loss for the party. Getting a majority of the vote will be important to show that they are still the main left of centre party in Canadian politics. Anything lower than the mid-40s that Layton got in the past (of what the provincial NDP normally gets in this riding) will be seen as a defeat.

Prediction

By-elections are always hard to predict, but at least I will give it a try. Back in February, Forum research released a poll for the riding that showed that the NDP will easily win it, with  61% of the vote (close to Layton's percentage). The Liberals were at 19% and the Tories at 14%. The Greens were at 4% in the poll. These poll numbers nearly mirror the 2011 results in the riding.

So, this brings me to my prediction. I see the NDP range in this riding between 54% (what they got in the provincial election) and 61% (what they got in the federal election). I will average this out and err on the side of the poll, and say the NDP will get 57%. The Tories will probably get 12% of the vote, as they are not as popular as they were in 2011. The Tories have a ceiling of 14% here, and a floor of 6%. I can see the Tories getting less than 14%, if right of centre voters see the Liberals as having any shot of winning this race. The Greens don't often do well in by-elections, and will be looking at probably 4%, where they were at for the 2011 provincial election. There are many independent and other party candidates in the race, and together will probably get 2% of the vote. This leaves the Liberals with 25% of the vote, which seems like a good number. They will be boosted as the only alternative to the NDP, but wont get enough support due to the NDP's inevitability of victory.

So, enjoy the by-election tomorrow, everyone. Polls close at 8:30 PM (Eastern). 

Toronto--Danforth demographic maps

Yesterday, Prime Minister Harper finally announced the date of the Toronto--Danforth by-election, needed to fill the seat that was vacated by the death of former NDP leader Jack Layton back in August. The date chosen was March 19.

Here at the Canadian Election Atlas, I hope to take an in depth geographical analysis of the riding over the next few weeks. Last month, if you will recall, I took a look at the boundary changes of the riding since confederation.

For this post, I will look at the riding's demographics. I have made maps showing income levels, race, language and religion. All topics of interest to me. However, if you would like to see some more demographic maps, please let me know by leaving a comment or emailing me with a request, and I will be happy to make a supplementary blog post.

First, let's get acquainted with the riding's neighbourhoods.

These are some of the general neighbourhood's in the riding. They don't have any official borders, so ignore the purple lines- I'll get to them in a second. These neighbourhoods are their approximate locations, which I researched on Wikipedia, and backed up using Atlases and other online sources.

The purple lines are the census tract boundaries in the riding. Statistics Canada provides detailed demographic data up to that level. The City of Toronto also provides data at that level, which is another source I used to get language information (which Statistics Canada doesn't provide unless we're talking about English or French). The grey census tract is actually an uninhabited portion of a larger census tract found in neighbouring Beaches--East York. Ignore it, no one lives there.

Unless otherwise noted, these maps are from the 2006 Census. Demographic information from the 2011 Census wont be available for a few months.

One thing I have discovered from making these maps, is the contrast between the north part of the riding and the south. The north has a large Greek, and Orthodox population (it is home to Greek Town after all), while the south has a large Chinese population, and is home to East Chinatown.




Income
For income data, I have made just one map. This map shows the average annual income of a person over 15 (before taxes) in the riding from 2005. The riding is generally homogenous when it comes to income. Most census tracts have an average income of between $20,000 and $30,000. However, there is a somewhat wealthy pocket of the riding in the west Danforth area (including parts of Greektown and an area called "Danforth by the Valley"). These three census tracts, in the darkest green on the map all make about an average of $38,000. The poorest part of the riding is in Leslieville and the neighbouring India Bazaar area. Both India Bazaar and the census tract around Greenwood Park were the poorest census tracts in the riding, both earning an average of $18,000 in 2005.










Language
After English of course, the two main languages of the riding are Chinese and Greek. As mentioned earlier, Chinese is mostly spoken in the south of the riding, while Greek is predominant in the north.

Two census tracts in Leslieville, and the census tract containing East Chinatown have the highest percentage of people who reported either Mandarin or Cantonese as their mother tongue. For the record, around 3 quarters of these native Chinese speakers are Cantonese. There are probably more Chinese speakers not shown on this map, but the Toronto Social Atlas which I used didn't include other Chinese languages or people who just wrote "Chinese" as their mother tongue.

The census tract with the most amount of native Greek speakers is not in fact Greektown, as one would expect, but nearby Pape Village. However, that whole area, around the Danforth and in East York has a high percentage of native Greek speakers.

Race
After Whites, the four main racial groups in the riding are Chinese, South Asians, Blacks and Filipinos. I have mapped all four.

Not surprisingly, the census tracts with the highest percentage of native Chinese speakers are also the census tracts with the highest percentage of Chinese people. Again, much of the Chinese population is concentrated in the south part of the riding, in East Chinatown and in Leslieville.

South Asians can be found more in the central/eastern part of the riding. The highest concentration can be found in the Danforth area, the Pocket, and of course the India Bazaar.

The Black population in the riding is fairly spread out, but there is a higher concentration of Blacks along Pape Avenue, south of Danforth.

Meanwhile, Filipinos are also spreadout, and only number more than 6% in two census tracts, one in East York, and the largest is the low populated Studio District.

Religion
I made quite a few maps showing the strength of various religions and denominations of the riding. Note, that these maps are a bit out dated, since they are from the 2001 census. Religion is only asked on every second census, and was not asked in the 2006 census.

The largest religion in Toronto--Danforth is actually the lack thereof. 31% of the riding lacks any religion at all, which is the 2nd highest number in all of Ontario. Most of the irreligious in the riding can be found in the southern part. The Studio District, in the far south of the riding is the least religious census tract, with 50% of the population being non religious. The most religious census tract is Broadview West, where only 14% of the population is not religious.

21% of the riding is Catholic. Most of the Catholic population in the riding is concentrated in the northeast. The most Catholic census tract is in the East Danforth area. The least Catholic census tract is in Riverdale.

The Toronto Social Atlas was nice enough to breakdown the various Protestant denominations in the city, so I was able to combine all of the mainline Protestants into one group for the next map. Mainline Protestants seem to be concentrated in the more wealthier parts of the riding, in the central west and northeast.

Toronto--Danforth has the highest percentage of Orthodox Christians out of any riding in Ontario, at 11%. The riding has a high population of Greeks and Serbs, and they tend to be Orthodox. Almost all of the Orthodox in the riding live in the north, especially in the northwest of the riding. In fact, two census tracts have a majority of its population being Orthodox. Both of these census tracts are in the Broadview North area of the riding, west of Pape.

Toronto--Danforth also has the highest percentage of Buddhists of any riding in Ontario, with 6%. Budhists are found in the south of the riding, and more or less correlate with the Chinese population. East Chinatown has the highest percentage of Buddhists in the riding, with 18% of that census tract being Buddhist.

5% of the riding is Muslim, and they are mostly concentrated in the Pocket, and in the India Bazaar.

My final map shows the Jewish population. Only 2% of the riding is Jewish, and the are found more in the wealthy west part of the riding, in Riverdale.

Toronto--Danforth riding boundary history.

With a by-election in the riding of Toronto--Danforth imminent (caused by the death of Jack Layton in August), I will be taking an in depth look at the riding over the coming months. My first post will be analyzing the modern day riding of Toronto--Danforth's boundary history. That is, I'll be showing the boundaries of other ridings over time that happened to fall within the present day boundaries.

Eric Grenier did an excellent history of the riding, but looked at its history as all one riding starting with Toronto East in 1867, and following it until 1933 when it became Broadview, and then following Broadview until it became Broadview--Greenwood in 1976 and then following it through its name change to Toronto--Danforth in 2000 to today. The problem with this approach is, there is no part of the riding that existed in all incarnations of these past ridings.

Toronto East began in 1867, mostly on the west side of the Don River, and included only a small part of present day Toronto--Danforth. However, it would gradually shift eastward across the Don River until it was entirely on its east side. In 1933, most of Toronto East became the new riding of Broadview. In 1976, most of Broadview became Broadview--Greenwood.  But, it had shifted northward to the point where its territory did not include any part of the original Toronto East in 1867. Eventually Broadview--Greenwood got bigger until it filled in the entirety of present day Toronto--Danforth.

To illustrate the riding boundaries over time, I have made maps of each redistribution that resulted in boundary changes in the area currently covered by the Toronto--Danforth riding.

From 1867 to 1903, the present day riding of Toronto--Danforth was split between two ridings along Queen Street. Queen Street formed the city limits of the city of Toronto until 1884 (see annexation map). The area north of Queen was found in the "East riding of York" (York East), while the area south would be in the riding of "East Toronto" (Toronto East).

York East was a mostly rural riding which consisted of the Townships of Markham, and Scarborough, York east of Yonge Street and the village of Yorkville. Until 1884, the area north of Queen Street was part of York Township (then East York Township).

Toronto East was more of an urban riding. It originally consisted of the wards of St. Lawrence, St. David's and St. James. Only St. Lawrence Ward extended into modern day Toronto-Danforth. In today's terms, the riding basically extended west to Yonge Street, and north to Bloor Street. Most of the riding was in present day Toronto Centre. In 1872, Toronto East lost St. James Ward to the newly created Toronto Centre riding. This did not affect the boundary in present day Toronto--Danforth however.

Toronto--Danforth showing 1867-1903 riding boundaries and features

1903
The 1903 redistribution would see the next boundary change in the area. In 1884, a large segment of the region (Riverdale) was annexed by the City of Toronto. Small segments along Queen Street (1887)  and Greenwood Avenue (1890) were also later added to the city. These annexations were reflected upon the 1903 redistribution, which gave this new part of the city to the riding of Toronto East. Meanwhile, the riding of York East was abolished. The part of the York East now found in Toronto--Danforth found itself in the new riding of York South. While not within city limits, this area was becoming more and more urban in nature.

Toronto--Danforth showing 1903-1914 riding boundaries and features

1914
The City of Toronto annexed some more land between 1903 and 1914, but upon redistribution the new riding boundaries would ignore the new city limits. The northern boundary of the Toronto East riding would remain along Danforth Avenue, but the eastern boundary would be moved west to Pape Avenue. This was caused by the re-creation of the new York East riding. York East would consist of all of Scarborough, plus the furthest eastern portion of Toronto, east of Pape and south of Danforth. The area north of Danforth would remain in the riding of York South.

Toronto--Danforth showing 1914-1924 boundaries and features.

1924
As Toronto grows larger, the riding of Toronto East has been making an eastward drift. By 1924, the riding has shed almost all of its territory west of the Don River, and can now be found almost exclusively within the modern riding of Toronto--Danforth. There was only a small section, likely uninhabited west of the Don River in the northwest corner of the riding between the CN railroad and the river. While the riding moved east, its eastern border also moved with it, going from Pape Avenue in 1914 to Greenwood Avenue in 1924 (Knox Avenue south of Queen). Its northern boundary also moved, up to the Toronto city limits (west of Pape) and Danforth Avenue (east of Pape).

The riding of York South's southerly boundary was thus moved north, and followed the city limits of Toronto. The remainder of modern day Toronto--Danforth would find itself in the new riding of Toronto--Scarborough. This riding did not actually include any part of Scarborough (which would be in the riding of York South). It just included the part of Toronto east of Toronto East. I guess they had to come up with a name, and "Toronto East East" didn't sound good. Scarborough was right next door, so why not name it after its neighbour?

Toronto--Danforth showing 1924-1933 boundaries and features.

1933
The 1933 redistribution abolished the riding of Toronto East. Most of the riding became the new riding of Broadview. The eastern boundary of Broadview would be Jones Avenue for most of its length. To the east of Jones would be the new riding of Greenwood. Greenwood extended along the Toronto waterfront until Woodbine Avenue, in present day Beaches--East York. However, more than half of Greenwood would be found in present day Toronto--Danforth. The northern boundary of both these ridings would remain the city limits.

North of the city limits would be transferred to the new riding of York East, which included all of York County east of Yonge Street (outside of Toronto).

Toronto--Danforth showing 1933-1966 boundaries and features.

1966
It was not until 1966 that the boundaries within modern day Toronto--Danforth would be changed again.

The riding of Broadview would be expanded eastward to Greenwood Avenue (north of Queen Street) and northward to Sammon Avenue (east of Pape Avenue). A small, likely uninhabited chunk west of Cherry Street in the Port Lands was given to the neighbouring Rosedale riding. As a result of Broadview moving eastward, and York East moved northward.

Toronto--Danforth showing 1966-1976 boundaries and features.

1976
In 1976, Broadview shifted northward, and became the riding of Broadview--Greenwood. Despite its new name, it did not take any territory from the former Greenwood riding which was abolished into the new riding of Beaches. In fact, Beaches actually took some territory from Broadview, gaining the area between Gerrard Street and Queen Street east of Jones Avenue.

The riding of Rosedale, took up some more territory in the area, and would now include parts of Toronto's Studio District. It gained the part of the former riding of Broadview south of Queen Street. To compensate, Broadview shifted north, moving its northern boundary all the way to the Don River. This new area in the Borough of East York was gained to the expense of York East, which was regulated to a small corner present day Toronto--Danforth (east of Greenwood, north of the city limits).

Toronto--Danforth showing 1976-1987 boundaries and features.

1987
In 1987, Broadview--Greenwood was expanded to the point that it covered most of today's Toronto--Danforth riding. The riding of York East was abolished, and Broadview--Greenwood took up the territory it had in the area. It also took back the area from Beaches between Gerrard and Queen that was lost in 1976. The riding was also expanded southward, to include the area south of Queen Street and west of Leslie Street that belonged to Rosedale previously.

Beaches was renamed Beaches--Woodbine, and other than Broadview--Greenwood, would be the only other riding that covered today's Toronto--Danforth.

Toronto--Danforth showing 1987-1996 boundaries and features.

1996
Broadview--Greenwood ate up some more territory of next-door Beaches--Woodbine. The northern boundary of Beaches--Woodbine was moved south from Danforth Avenue to Gerrard Street. Meanwhile, Broadview--Greenwood expanded outside of the area, taking in a small area northwest of the Don River.

Beaches--Woodbine was renamed "Beaches--East York" in 1997, before the federal election took place. Broadview--Greenwood was renamed "Toronto--Danforth" in 2000. The boundaries were altered to where they are today upon the 2003 redistribution.

Toronto--Danforth showing 1996-2003 boundaries and features.