Liberal change (2008-2011)

This map shows the percentage change for the Liberal Party between the 2008 and 2011 elections. In previous posts, I covered the Conservatives and the NDP change.

While the traditional colour for the Liberals is red, that colour on this map is bad for the party. The darker the red, the more the party's vote share went down. And there is a lot of red. Green on the other hand means an increase in support for the party.

The Liberals really got hit hard in the 2011 election. The once "natural governing party of Canada" fell to a measly 34 seats, down from 77 they won in 2008.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals only gained support in three seats- all in Nova Scotia. Perhaps this came from disgruntled former NDP supporters, upset with the provincial government. This may have been true, but each riding they gained in has its own story. In West Nova, the marginal Liberal gain can be attributed to those NDP supporters upset over the provincial government cancelling the Yarmouth ferry in the riding. In Cumberland--Colchester--Musquodoboit Valley, Liberal supporters supporting Independent Bill Casey may have come back home. And in Central Nova, the Liberals could only go up, having no candidate in 2008 (they had agreed not to run one against the Green's Elizabeth May). The Liberals lost every where else in the region, especially in northern New Brunswick, Saint John, Egmont in P.E.I. and in Labrador, where the Liberals lost a once strong seat to Peter Penashue of the Conservatives, who was the popular leader of the Labrador Innu Nation.

Quebec saw losses for the Liberals in every riding except Beauce. The Liberals ran a former ADQ MNA in the riding. The increase was very marginal however. Interestingly, many of the worse losses for the Liberals came in ridings with a high Anglo population, like in West Montreal, Pontiac, west Laval, Hull--Aylmer and in the Eastern Townships.

In Ontario, the Liberals gained in 7 seats. Two of those came in the Ottawa suburbs, perhaps civil servants worried about Tory job cuts. Strong campaigns in Kingston and in Guelph helped the Liberals hang on to those two marginal seats, increasing their vote to boot. Another strong campaign in Kitchener--Waterloo gave the Liberals a higher share of the vote, but they lost in another close election, a re-match from 2008. A collapse of the strong 2008 Green vote in Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound helped the Liberals increase there. And finally, the Liberals gained support in Sault Ste. Marie, where they ran the nephew of a former MP (with the same last name). In contrast, neighbouring Algoma--Manitoulin--Kaspuskasing saw on of the largest decreases for the Liberals, as well as much of the rest of Northern Ontario. Southwestern Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area were other hard hit ridings.

Western Canada was actually better for the Liberals in that their decreases were not as bad. In Manitoba, they gained in two seats. In Winnipeg North, they gained the most compared to 2008, with the popular Kevin Lamoureux who won the seat in a 2010 by-election. The Liberals also gained in Kildonan--St. Paul, where their 2008 candidate was dropped (but still remained on the ballot) due to controversial comments about 9/11. Hard not to gain from that.

In Saskatchewan, the Liberals gained marginally from their paltry 5% (4th place) performance in 2008 in the riding of Yorkton--Melville. All other ridings had losses, including a large loss of support in Desenthe--Missinippi--Churchill River where they NDP ran a strong candidate, taking much of the anti-Tory 2008 votes from the Liberals.

In Alberta, the Liberals had gains in 5 seats, three of which were in Calgary. Perhaps Calgary is moderating itself a bit, as evidenced by electing a moderate Muslim mayor in 2010? Elsewhere, the Liberals gained marginal support in Wild Rose (where they ran a judge who had made controversial comments about sexual assault) and in Medicine Hat, where they ran the mayor of Medicine Hat.

In B.C., the Liberals saw a gain in support in three ridings. Interestingly, two of those ridings were close races between the Tories and the NDP- which usually means the Liberal vote suffers due to strategic voting. These seats were Surrey North and Vancouver Island North, which were both close races in 2008 as well. The other seat the Liberals gained support in was Chilliwack--Fraser Canyon, where they ran a Chilliwack city councillor. The Liberals saw their biggest loss in the province in Esquimault--Juan de Fuca after popular Liberal MP Keith Martin retired, and opened the seat up to its traditional NDP-Tory roots.

Finally in Northern Canada, the Liberals saw a marginal gain in support in the Western Arctic (Northwest Territories) where they ran former Premier Joe Handley. Running a former Premier (Paul Okalik) in Nunavut however did not help them, where their vote went down by a fraction of a percent. The Liberals saw a large loss in the Yukon, where their MP Larry Bagnell went down in defeat. The gun registry, which the Liberals support, was very unpopular in this rural riding.

Many thanks again, to S. Smith of the U.S. Election Atlas Forum who made the map.

NDP change (2008-2011)

A few days ago, I posted the Conservative change in vote support between the 2008 and 2011 federal elections. My second installment shows the NDP change in support between those two same elections. On the map, green indicates ridings where the NDP gained in vote percentage (darker shades meaning a greater increase in the vote), while red ridings are where the NDP lost in vote percentage (darker red meaning a greater decrease in the vote).

So, what can be said about this map? Well, a lot of green certainly, attributed to the NDP's breakthrough in the 2011 race. This is most notable in Quebec, where most of the province is a darker shade of green. In not one single riding in Quebec did they lose in support.

In Atlantic Canada, the NDP suffered some losses, and some gains. Overall, they gained two seats in the region. In Newfoundland & Labrador, the NDP saw support losses in 4 of the 7 ridings, but actually gained one seat (St. John's South--Mount Pearl). 2008 was a very bad year for the Tories on "the Rock", thanks to then Premier Danny Williams' "Anything But Conservative" campaign. As discussed on the last map, the Tories made gains here in 2011, and it came at the expense of the NDP in many seats.

Nova Scotia was the only other Atlantic province to see NDP losses in support in 2011. The NDP saw a decrease in vote in 6 of the 11 ridings. The NDP government of Nova Scotia is somewhat unpopular, which may have hurt them in the province. But just like in Newfoundland, the NDP actually gained a seat in the province (Dartmouth--Cole Harbour).

In Ontario, just two ridings had the NDP lose support. Both were in Northern Ontario. One seat's decrease (Sault Ste. Marie) contributed to the NDP losing it to the Tories. The other riding to see the NDP's share of the vote go down was in Timmins--James Bay, which the party still kept. The gun registry (many Northern Ontario NDP MPs flip flopped on this issue) must have hurt the party in those two ridings, despite "the Soo" being mostly urban. It should also be noted that the gun registry didn't seem to hurt the party in any of the other Northern Ontario ridings. The ridings that the NDP gained the most came in the Greater Toronto Area, thanks to strong local campaigns in Scarborough--Rouge River, Davenport and Bramalea--Gore--Malton (the latter where the NDP lost by a few hundred votes).

In Western Canada, the NDP only saw a loss of support in some seats in Manitoba and in Nunavut. In Manitoba, the party only saw losses in three of the 14 ridings, but it was good enough to lose one seat (actually down two from 2008). All three ridings were in the north end of Winnipeg. The NDP saw the biggest decrease from 2008 in the riding Winnipeg North. This long time NDP seat was lost in a by-election last year to the popular Liberal MLA Kevin Lamoureux in a close race. He held on to the seat once again in the 2011 election in another close battle. The NDP lost another stronghold in neighbouring Elmwood--Transcona, a seat they held for over 30 years. Much debate has arisen as to why the NDP lost these seats. My theory is an unpopular provincial NDP government (at the time), and perhaps demographic changes.

As mentioned, the NDP also lost support in Nunavut. This is probably because they ran a lesser known candidate in a region where the person is more important than the party. Elsewhere in the west, NDP increases were modest to strong, with the highest increase in the riding of Desnethe--Missinippi--Churchill River, where the NDP went from a distant third to losing by less than 1,000 votes. This was again due to running a popular candidate in Lawrence Joseph, the former Chief of the Federation of Saskatchewan Indians in a riding with a high Native population.

Once again, thank you to S. Smith of the U.S. Election Atlas Forum who made the map.

Conservative change 2008-2011

S. Smith from the U.S. Elections Atlas forum will be providing % change maps between the 2008 and 2011 elections, and I will be posting them here. (Many thanks to him for his permission!)

The first one he has made is for the Conservatives,

As you can see, the Tories gained in much of Canada, save for Quebec. In Newfoundland we can see they gained a lot from their horrible performance in the 2008 election thanks to the "Anybody but Conservative" campaign of then Premier Danny Williams. The Tories did much better across Atlantic Canada as well, and benefited especially in Nova Scotia, perhaps at the hands of an unpopular NDP government there. Their strongest gains were in Labrador, thanks to the strong candidacy of Innue leader Peter Penashue in an historically safe Liberal seat, and in Cumberland--Colchester--Musqoudoboit Valley where Independent Bill Casey won last time.

Quebec of course is a different story. Here we see a mostly pink or red province with splotches of green. The biggest Tory gains appear to be in the west Island, where many English Montrealers live. It appears that they were probably Liberal voters jumping from that sinking ship. Pay special attention to Mount Royal (the darker green riding in central Montreal). That's a riding that was once called the safest Liberal seat in the country, and was formerly represented by Pierre Trudeau himself. The seat has been held by the Liberals for the last 70 years, but the Tories came within 2500 votes of winning it in 2011.

Ontario by contrast, was mostly green on this map, meaning gains for the Tories. We can see stronger greens in Northern Ontario, thanks to the gun registry issue which hurt the NDP somewhat in that region. Also, note the dark green in Vaughan, where the Tories won a recent by-election from this former Liberal bastion seat. The Tories only lost support in a handful of seats, mostly in the Ottawa area, thanks to fears of public service cuts. Losses in Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke can be attributed to the Independent candidacy of Hec Clouthier taking votes away from controversial Tory incumbent Cheryl Gallant, while losses in Simcoe-Grey can be attributed to the Independent candidacy of incumbent Helena Guergis who had previously been expelled by the Tory caucus. Finally, in Bramalea-Gore-Malton, the Tories lost votes in a riding they actually gained from the Liberals, thanks to the surprising strength of the NDP's Jagmeet Singh which seems to have taken votes from both the Liberals and Tories.

The Tories had marginal gains across the prairies, losing support in just 5 seats, none in Manitoba (again, thanks to an unpopular NDP government). The Tories lost support in just one Saskatchewan riding, and I can only guess it was because of the candidacy of former MP Jim Pankiw, who only just received 2% of the vote, however that was more than the 1% decrease in support for the Conservative candidate. Meanwhile in Alberta, one dark red riding stands out, that being in Lethbridge. The Conservative candidate in the riding, Jim Hillyer was noticeably absent in the campaign, which helped reduce the Tory % of the vote by 10%, still good enough for a majority however. The other three ridings the Tories lost support were in urban parts of Edmonton and Calgary.

British Columbia was a province that saw the Conservatives lose support in many ridings, perhaps due to the infamous introduction of the HST. The losses only hurt them in two seats however, when they lost Surrey North to the NDP and Saanich--Gulf Islands to the Greens. Meanwhile, they gained Vancouver South from the Liberals.

Finally, in the North, the Tories cemented their 2008 pickup of Nunavut, while also gaining in the Yukon. However, their 2008 strong showing in Western Arctic collapsed by 5%.