Ontario election 2011 prediction (Final edition)

Click to enlarge.

It's finally time to compile my very last prediction of the Ontario provincial election. Voters will be going to the polls today, and the polls are starting to show the Liberals finally breaking away into the lead, but will it be enough for a majority?

There has been many polls since my last projection, including a plethora of riding polls put out by Forum Research that put into question their earlier poll of 40,000 people which was a large enough sample for riding specific results. Just on Tuesday, they put out a poll of the ridings which had been the the closest in their prior poll, which helped me determine where they were (A) wrong and (B) where the movement was. They also put out some riding polls last week for the Ontario Federation of Labour.

For this projection, I used an average of the final polls these last few days. As I was doing the numbers, some last few polls came out, but they only vary somewhat from the numbers I used to make this projection. Most polls are now showing the Liberals in the high 30s, which is only a few points off their mark set in 2007 (42%). The Tories are polling in the mid-to-low 30s, which is around what they got last time (32%). The NDP is polling in the mid-to-low 20s, which is an improvement from the 2007, where they got 17%. Meanwhile, the Greens are polling in the low single digits, about half of what they got in 2007 (8%). It should also be known that the Liberals are polling quite well in the Toronto area, which is where they will make the most gains in votes, but they are still likely to lose some seats to the NDP which are set to gain as many as three seats in the region.

Here are my final predictions:

Riding	Lib	PC	NDP	Grn	Oth	Winning candidate
Ajax—Pickering	47	32	16	4	1	Joe Dickson
Algoma—Manitoulin	30	23	43	3	1	Michael Mantha
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	44	35	16	4	1	Ted McMeekin
Barrie	35	40	19	5	1	Rod Jackson
Beaches—East York	36	18	41	4	1	Michael Prue
Bramalea—Gore—Malton	34	24	35	6	1	Jagmeet Singh
Brampton West	45	33	20	2	0	Vic Dhillon
Brampton—Springdale	44	37	12	4	1	Linda Jeffrey
Brant	31	36	25	6	2	Michael St. Amant
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	29	39	17	10	5	Bill Walker
Burlington	35	43	17	4	1	Jane McKenna
Cambridge	31	39	23	6	1	Rob Leone
Carleton—Mississippi Mills	32	48	15	4	1	Jack MacLaren
Chatham-Kent—Essex	29	41	25	5	-	Rick Nicholls
Davenport	39	10	46	3	2	Jonah Schein
Don Valley East	54	28	14	2	1	Michael Coteau
Don Valley West	59	27	9	4	1	Kathleen Wynne
Dufferin—Caledon	26	44	12	18	0	Sylvia Jones
Durham	28	46	21	4	1	John O'Toole
Eglinton—Lawrence	54	30	13	2	1	Mike Colle
Elgin—Middlesex—London	22	49	24	4	1	Jeff Yurek
Essex	21	40	35	4	-	Dave Brister
Etobicoke Centre	51	30	14	3	2	Donna Cansfield
Etobicoke North	56	25	14	3	2	Shafiq Qaadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore	49	28	19	2	2	Laurel Broten
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	34	48	14	3	1	Marlissa Gosselin
Guelph	41	27	23	8	1	Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk	22	50	22	4	1	Toby Barrett
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	34	46	15	5	0	Laurie Scott
Halton	36	43	17	3	1	Ted Chudleigh
Hamilton Centre	27	16	52	3	2	Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	25	22	48	3	2	Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain	33	24	37	4	2	Monique Taylor
Huron—Bruce	29	40	26	4	1	Lisa Thompson
Kenora—Rainy River	19	44	37	2	0	Rod McKay
Kingston and the Islands	46	23	23	6	2	John Gerretsen
Kitchener Centre	39	39	17	4	1	John Milloy
Kitchener—Conestoga	39	39	18	4	-	Michael Harris
Kitchener—Waterloo	39	40	16	4	1	Elizabeth Witmer
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex	24	48	22	5	2	Monte McNaughton
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	31	45	20	4	-	Randy Hillier
Leeds—Grenville	22	56	18	4	0	Steve Clark
London North Centre	44	28	23	4	1	Deb Matthews
London West	46	28	22	3	1	Chris Bentley
London—Fanshawe	27	26	39	6	2	Teresa Armstrong
Markham—Unionville	55	27	13	4	1	Michael Chan
Mississauga East—Cooksville	42	39	13	5	1	Dipika Damerla
Mississauga South	50	35	11	3	1	Charles Sousa
Mississauga—Brampton South	46	30	20	3	1	Armit Mangat
Mississauga—Erindale	43	36	13	5	1	Harinder Takhar
Mississauga—Streetsville	48	31	14	7	-	Bob Delaney
Nepean—Carleton	31	50	15	3	1	Lisa MacLeod
Newmarket—Aurora	37	42	17	4	-	Frank Klees
Niagara Falls	35	35	26	2	2	Kim Craitor
Niagara West—Glanbrook	23	52	17	6	2	Tim Hudak
Nickel Belt	21	24	52	3	-	France Gelinas
Nipissing	30	40	25	5	-	Victor Fedeli
Northumberland—Quinte West	33	39	21	6	1	Rob Milligan
Oak Ridges—Markham	44	40	11	4	1	Helena Jaczek
Oakville	45	33	15	5	2	Kevin Flynn
Oshawa	24	37	33	5	1	Jerry Ouellette
Ottawa Centre	38	21	36	4	1	Yasir Naqvi
Ottawa South	46	37	12	4	1	Dalton McGuinty
Ottawa West—Nepean	38	40	16	5	1	Randall Denley
Ottawa—Orleans	42	42	13	3	1	Phil McNeely
Ottawa—Vanier	49	25	18	7	1	Madeleine Meilleur
Oxford	27	45	22	4	2	Ernie Hardeman
Parkdale—High Park	36	14	44	3	3	Cheri DiNovo
Parry Sound—Muskoka	28	43	17	11	1	Norm Miller
Perth—Wellington	45	27	20	5	2	John Wilkinson
Peterborough	42	26	26	5	1	Jeff Leal
Pickering—Scarborough East	49	32	15	3	1	Tracey MacCharles
Prince Edward—Hastings	33	37	23	5	2	Todd Smith
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	21	57	16	4	0	John Yakabuski
Richmond Hill	44	36	12	7	1	Reza Moridi
St. Catharines	43	33	17	5	2	Jim Bradley
St. Paul's	58	18	18	4	2	Eric Hoskins
Sarnia—Lambton	23	44	28	3	2	Bob Bailey
Sault Ste. Marie	44	21	31	2	2	David Orazietti
Scarborough Centre	53	24	19	2	1	Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest	43	22	29	5	1	Lorenzo Berardinetti
Scarborough—Agincourt	57	21	18	2	2	Soo Wong
Scarborough—Guildwood	56	21	19	2	2	Margarett Best
Scarborough—Rouge River	54	13	29	1	3	Bas Balkissoon
Simcoe North	30	39	23	8	-	Garfield Dunlop
Simcoe—Grey	29	47	14	10	-	Jim Wilson
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	23	52	21	3	1	Jim McDonnell
Sudbury	39	18	39	3	1	Paul Loewenburg
Thornhill	41	48	8	2	1	Peter Shurman
Thunder Bay—Atikokan	33	28	36	3	0	Mary Kozorys
Thunder Bay—Superior North	37	26	34	3	0	Michael Gravelle
Timikaming—Cochrane	31	16	50	3	0	John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay	17	35	46	2	0	Gilles Bisson
Toronto Centre	57	14	22	5	2	Glen Murray
Toronto—Danforth	33	13	48	4	2	Peter Tabuns
Trinity—Spadina	35	12	45	7	1	Rosario Marchese
Vaughan	52	30	14	3	1	Greg Sorbara
Welland	22	32	41	4	1	Cindy Forster
Wellington—Halton Hills	32	46	18	4	-	Ted Arnott
Whitby—Oshawa	32	45	18	4	1	Christine Elliott
Willowdale	54	24	17	4	1	David Zimmer
Windsor West	37	24	31	4	-	Teresa Piruzza
Windsor—Tecumseh	41	24	30	4	1	Dwight Duncan
York Centre	42	37	14	4	1	Monte Kwinter
York South—Weston	39	14	43	3	1	Paul Ferreira
York West	56	12	29	2	1	Mario Sergio
York—Simcoe	28	44	21	6	1	Julia Munro

Riding changes since my last prediction:
The Liberals have gained the most since my last projection, gaining a net of 3 seats. I now have them gaining Ancaster—Flamborough—Dundas—Westdale, Brampton—Springdale, Oak Ridges—Markham, and Perth—Wellington from the Tories, while I now have them leading in Ottawa Centre and Windsor West where I had the NDP Leading before. One additional seat was tied in my last prediction, Thunder Bay—Superior North. I now have the Liberals winning it. The gains are offset by some seats I no longer have the Liberals leading in. They were leading in Brant, which I now have going Tory, and I now have the NDP leading in Bramalea—Gore—Malton, London—Fanshawe and Sudbury. I have also taken Kenora—Rainy River away from the NDP and given it to the Tories.

Calling the toss ups

Bramalea—Gore—Malton:

Recent polls suggest that popular NDP candidate Jagmeet Singh will make history here as the first NDPer to win a seat in Peel Region. Singh narrowly lost the seat in the federal election back in May in this heavily South Asian riding. However, the polls still say it's a close race, and with the Liberals coming on strong in the home stretch, especially in the GTA, they may still hold on to this seat. I think Singh will pull through though.

Kitchener Centre:

Recent polls show this riding as a very close race. We may see a repeat of the 2008 federal election which was decided by just 400 votes. In 2007, Liberal MPP John Milloy won this seat by 8,000 votes. It hard to imagine the Tories have a chance here, but that's what the polls are showing. I'm still going to call this Liberal though.

Kitchener—Conestoga:

It was one of the surprises on election night in 2007 that this newly created rural-suburban seat around the Kitchener-Waterloo area did not go conservative. The race was decided by just 2000 votes where Liberal Leanne Pendergast defeated the Tory candidate Michael Harris. The two are facing off again, and it will prove to be another close race. Federally, the seat is a safe Conservative one, so I like Harris' chances here. Tory pick up.

Kitchener—Waterloo:

Polls are also showing a close race in next-door Kitchener—Waterloo. If it weren't for popular Tory incumbent MPP Elizabeth Witmer, this riding would likely be Liberal. Perhaps that's why Witmer is in a tough fight to keep it. In the 2011 federal election, the Liberals nearly won this seat back in a close race. And, the Liberals have been targeting Witmer for quite some time, coming within 1500 votes of ousting her in 2003. However, at the end of the day, I think Witmer's popularity will keep this riding for her.

Mississauga—East Cooksville:

Polls show a close race in this seat that was vacated by the Liberals when its MPP chose to run unsuccessfully for the federal riding. With the Liberals surging in the Greater Toronto Area though, they should be able to keep this seat, which was one of the strongest for the Liberals in the Peel region in the May election.

Niagara Falls

With the Tory and NDP leaders hailing from this region, the Liberal vote here is expected to drop, or at least according to some polls. Liberal MPP Kim Craitor won the seat by 8,000 votes in 2007, but the riding has been Conservative federally since 2004. I expect a close race, but with the Liberals back on top in the polls, they should be able to keep this.

Ottawa Centre

Oh boy, I'm going to get in some trouble here, by picking the Liberals to win. I must admit to working on the NDP campaign here, and while I'm optimistic of an NDP victory, I think the Liberals might just keep the riding. There has been no reliable polling of the riding, but I can tell with the collapse of the large Green vote in 2007, that both the NDP and Liberal numbers will go up. The question is whether or not the NDP can make up the 4% deficit it had in the 2007 election.

Ottawa West—Nepean

Ottawa Citizen columnist Randall Denley is challenging former Ottawa mayor and Liberal MPP Bob Chiarelli in what looks like a really close race. The riding is fairly safe for the Tories federally, and I think it will go that way provincially too. Chiarelli won by just 1300 votes in a by-election last year when the Liberals were polling where they are now. However, he wasn't running against Randall Denley.

Ottawa—Orleans

Another close race in the Ottawa area is in Ottawa—Orleans. The Liberals did very well in this riding despite losing in the 2011 federal election. Provincially, the Liberals won the seat by 9000 votes in 2007. Liberal MPP Phil McNeely is coming under heat by two local councillors however, making him vulnerable. He should be able to keep the riding though, it will be close.

Sudbury

Sudbury is a new seat on the radar, after a couple of polls showed the NDP ahead here. The NDP surprised many by picking up Sudbury in the 2008 federal election. Now, they may surprise many still by winning this seat in this provincial election despite losing by over 10,000 votes last election. The NDP wont surprise me however, as I expect them to hang on and win here.

Thunder Bay—Atikokan

Only 60 votes separated the Liberals and the NDP here in the 2007 election, and it is expected to be close once again. The NDP loser in that election, John Rafferty is now the MP for the area. And so, the NDP must build on this loss with a new candidate in Mary Kozorys. Polls show her leading Liberal MPP Bill Mauro with the Tories increasing their vote close behind as well. I expect the NDP to hold on here.

Thunder Bay—Superior North

Next door in this riding will prove to be another close race. However, I think the strength of Liberal cabinet minister Michael Gravelle will keep this riding for the Liberals. Recent polls have shown him with a small lead in the riding which he won in 2007 by just 2,400 votes.

Conclusion

I am now predicting a Liberal minority government. A strong government, very close to a majority. With the Liberals ahead in 48 seats, they will only need to gain six to get a majority. They can do this by winning the six listed toss up seats where they are losing. Those would be Bramalea—Gore—Malton, Kitchener—Conestoga, Kitchener—Waterloo, Ottawa West—Nepean, Sudbury and Thunder Bay—Atikokan. Meanwhile, the Tories are just 7 seats behind the Liberals in my projection. It is unlikely at current polling numbers for them to overcome this deficit. However, if they win all but one of those toss ups where they are behind, they will have more seats than the Liberals.

Polls close at 9pm Eastern. Please follow my Twitter feed for updates from me at my local election party.

Northwest Territories 2011 election results

The Northwest Territories went to the polls on Monday to elect the members of the Territorial Assembly. The NWT uses a consensus government model, and has no political parties. It runs similar to a city council in that front, except the Premier is not directly elected by the people. Instead, he or she is elected from the within the Territorial Assembly by its membership.

Premier Floyd Roland opted not to run for re-election in his district of Inuvik Boot Lake, meaning the NWT will have a new Premier when the new assembly convenes and elects one.

Three of the 19 districts had no election, as the candidates in those districts were acclaimed. Those seats were Inuvik Twin Lakes, Tu Nedhe and Yellowknife South. Only one member was defeated, as Michael McLeod lost to challenger Michael Nadli in Deh Cho. It was a rematch of a close race between the two in 2003. In addition, there were three open seats where no incumbent was running. Inuvik Boot Lakes, Hay River North and Mackenzie Delta.

Map

It's difficult to map an election with no parties, but this map at least shows what happened in each district.

For fun, I also made an approximation map of the federal election results transposed onto the Northwest Territories territorial ridings. It should be known that voters generally vote for the candidate, rather than the party up in the north, so be cautioned not to look too much into this map. However, if the federal election was the territorial election, the NDP would win a majority government with 11 seats, the Tories 6 and the Liberals 2.

Finally, here is a guide map showing which ridings are where.

Manitoba election 2011 final prediction

Manitoba goes to the polls today, and so it's time for my final projection. There has been just one poll since my last projection, released by Angus Reid just yesterday. It showed basically the same numbers as the Probe Research poll I used to do my last numbers. The NDP is still at 46%, and the Tories are still at 43%. The only difference is that the Liberals are up 1%, to 8% while the Greens are down 1% to 3%. As such, not much has changed with this prediction, except some changes to the "toss ups", as I made predictions as to who I think will win that were contrary to my last prediction. 

Riding	NDP	PC	Lib	Grn	Oth	Projected winner
Agassiz	27	67	7	4	-	Stu Briese
Arthur-Virden	16	79	5	-	-	Larry Maguire
Assiniboia	58	36	4	2	-	Jim Rondeau
Brandon East	45	43	6	6	-	Drew Caldwell
Brandon West	43	52	5	-	0	Reg Hellwer
Burrows	67	28	4	1	0	Melanie Wight
Charleswood	26	63	7	4	-	Myrna Driedger
Concordia	68	26	4	2	-	Matt Wiebe
Dauphin	47	45	4	4	-	Stan Struthers
Dawson Trail	38	57	5	-	-	Laurent Tetrault
Elmwood	60	26	11	3	-	Jim Maloway
Emerson	17	67	16	-	-	Cliff Graydon
Flin Flon	65	25	8	2	-	Clarence Petterson
Fort Garry-Riverview	58	27	12	3	-	James Allum
Fort Richmond	55	33	11	1	-	Kerri Irvin-Ross
Fort Rouge	47	24	25	4	-	Jennifer Howard
Fort Whyte	30	64	6	-	-	Hugh McFadyen
Gimli	50	42	5	3	-	Peter Bjornson
Interlake	49	47	4	-	0	Tom Nevakshonoff
Kewatinook	54	40	5	1	-	Eric Robinson
Kildonan	61	35	4	-	-	Dave Chomiak
Kirkfield Park	46	46	5	3	-	Kelly de Groot
La Verendrye	25	67	5	2	-	Dennis Smook
Lac du Bonnet	22	69	7	2	-	Wayne Ewasko
Lakeside	31	61	5	3	-	Ralph Eichler
Logan	60	22	14	4	0	Flor Marcelino
Midland	20	69	11	-	-	Blaine Pederson
Minto	62	20	11	5	2	Andrew Swan
Morden-Winkler	9	83	6	-	-	Cameron Friesen
Morris	29	64	7	-	-	Mavis Taillieu
Point Douglas	58	30	8	2	2	Kevin Chief
Portage La Prairie	38	54	8	-	-	Ian Wishart
Radisson	57	39	4	-	-	Bidhu Jha
Riding Mountain	31	64	6	4	-	Leanne Rowat
Riel	59	34	7	-	-	Christine Melnick
River East	44	51	4	1	-	Bonnie Mitchelson
River Heights	25	34	39	2	-	Jon Gerrard
Rossmere	50	44	4	2	-	Erna Braun
Seine River	58	35	7	-	-	Theresa Oswald
Selkirk	49	45	6	-	-	Greg Dewar
Southdale	46	50	4	-	-	Judy Eastman
Spruce Woods	20	71	9	-	-	Cliff Cullen
St. Boniface	65	24	8	3	-	Greg Selinger
St. James	49	43	4	4	-	Deanne Cruthers
St. Johns	63	30	4	3	-	Gord Mackintosh
St. Norbert	37	55	8	-	-	Karen Velthuys
St. Paul	30	59	9	-	-	Ron Schuler
St. Vital	64	31	5	-	-	Nancy Allan
Steinbach	7	88	5	-	-	Kevin Goertzen
Swan River	47	48	4	-	-	Dave Powell
The Maples	52	38	9	1	-	Mohinder Saran
The Pas	71	25	4	-	-	Frank Whitehead
Thompson	67	18	15	-	-	Steve Ashton
Transcona	66	30	4	-	-	Daryl Reid
Tuxedo	33	52	13	2	-	Heather Stefanson
Tyndall Park	67	23	9	1	-	Ted Marcelino
Wolseley	65	17	6	12	-	Rob Altemeyer

Predicting the toss ups

Brandon East

My last projection gave the Tories the edge here, but provincially, this riding is still safe NDP territory. The riding has voted NDP in every election since it was created in 1969. While the region is trending Tory, I don't expect it to go PC quite yet- at least not while the NDP is running an incumbent in Drew Caldwell. He won comfortably in 2007 by 1,000 votes.

Dauphin

Dauphin is another long time NDP riding. It has been represented by the NDP in every election since 1981. This riding I had the Tories ahead in my last projection, but I'm not quite ready to say that, although it will be close with the Tories trending up here.

Interlake

Interlake is yet another rural Manitoba riding with a long NDP history. The NDP has won the region in every election since 1969. In the last election, the NDP won the seat by 1,600 votes, but the riding's boundary changes since then has made the seat more Tory friendly. I still don't think it will be enough for the Tories to win, however.

Kirkfield Park

Before the NDP finally won this seat in 2007, Kirkfield Park had elected the Tories for 30 years. This is one of those suburban Winnipeg seats that went to the new NDP of Gary Doer. While the NDP is up in Winnipeg, it's seats like Kirkfield Park the Tories will be targeting, and I think in this case they will prove successful in getting this riding back.

River Heights

The Liberals are in danger here of losing there one and only riding. The Liberal vote is expected to half across the city, and the Tories are up, and will be targeting this affluent riding in the centre of the riding. The Tories are also benefited from the fact that the new boundaries make this riding less Liberal friendly. However, with the Liberals putting all of their eggs in this basket, they should be able to keep it.

Selkirk

Selkirk has not voted Tory ever, since being created in 1957. While the area is trending towards the Tories, I don't think they are quite there yet. The NDP won here comfortably by 1600 votes in 2007. They should be able to win it again although it will be close. This riding has lost some of its NDP areas after redistribution.

Southdale

Until they won it in 2007, the NDP had not been able to take this area of Winnipeg since 1966. It's a traditionally Tory area that the NDP was able to win last election by 1200 votes. However, the riding has lost some NDP friendly neighbourhoods, and the Tories will be targeting it. They should be able ot pick it up.

Swan River

Swan River is an historically Tory riding that has voted NDP since 1990. It is currently an open seat. The NDP won the seat by 1,600 votes in 2007, but without the power of incumbency, are vulnerable here. I had previously thought the NDP was strong enough to keep this riding, but I think the Tories may just win it, strengthened by a depleted NDP in rural Manitoba, and the fact that the riding has lost some NDP areas.

Seat changes / conclusion

The only seat changes projected from my last prediction are the one's discussed above. Basically, I have the NDP picking up Brandon East, Dauphin and Selkirk, while I have the Tories picking up Kirkfield Park, Southdale and Swan River. There is no net change from last time. And so, I predict yet another NDP majority government in Manitoba.

Prince Edward Island 2011 election - results

Unofficial final results map

The results are in from Prince Edward Island, and the Liberals, under Premier Robert Ghiz have won another majority government. The party won 22 of the island's 27 seats, down two from the 2007 election. The Tories won five seats, up two. The Liberals received 51% of the vote, the Tories 40%, the Greens won 4%, the NDP 3% and the new Island party 1%. The popular vote nearly mirrored the 2007 election, with the Liberals down 2%, the Tories down 1%, while the Greens and NDP were both up 1%.

Party	Leader	Popular vote	%	Seats
Liberal	Robert Ghiz	38304	51.4	22
Progressive Conservative	Olive Crane	29948	40.2	5
Green	Sharon Labchuk	3239	4.4	0
N.D.P.	James Rodd	2355	3.2	0
Island Party	Billy Cann	682	0.9	0
Independents	-	15	0	0

The Tories performed better than the most recent poll had them had, getting 4% more, while the Liberals were down 2% from that poll. This allowed the party to win many two more seats than I had projected.

Where I went wrong

I was wrong in a total of four seats (85% success rate). Not bad for my first projection, especially considering my limited knowledge of local races. And it was that limited knowledge that hurt me in the end. Here are the four seats I picked the wrong winner in:

Belfast-Murray River

It seems odd that the Tories would lose a seat I predicted despite doing better than my expectations overall, but they did it here. Incumbent Charlie McGeoghegan was able to hold on to his seat in a close rematch of the 2007 by-election against Darlene Compton. Only 8 votes separated the two candidates. I wasn't too far off though, as I did predict a close race. In total I was only an average of 2% off the marks of the four parties.

Souris-Elmira

Just 210 votes separated the Liberals and Tories here in 2007, but with Liberal incumbent Allan Campbell running again, I thought he would be able to hold on. He wasn't as Tory candidate Colin LaVie won by 30 votes in a race that went back and forth all night. I didn't predict that close of a race (I had Campbell winning by 7%), but I wasn't that far off, being an average of 4% off for each party.

Stratford-Kinlock

The biggest surprise for me on election night was in this riding, deep in the heart of Queens County. My general assumption was that the Liberals would improve in Queens, but it actually did not. The race in 2007 was close, when Liberal Cynthia Dunsford won by just 81 votes. However, the 2011 election was not even close. Tory candidate James Aylward won by nearly 800 votes over Dunsford. I predicted a 7 point Liberal victory, but what happened was a 22% Tory victory. I was off an average of 7% here. While I nailed the small NDP and Green votes, I was off by much more for the Liberals and Tories.

Tignish-Palmer Road

The Tories were able to win on seat in Prince County, however it was not in Alberton-Roseville like I expected. Instead, it was in the more Liberal leaning district of Tignish-Palmer Road. The Liberals won here by 300 votes in 2007, but it was perhaps the strength of Local Conservative MP Gail Shea that made this riding blue this time around. Shea represented Tignish as an MLA before losing in 2007 and going on to become a Conservative MP. Her strength probably won this riding for the Tories, and their candidate Hal Perry. It was very close though, Perry won by just 33 votes. I was off by an average of 3% for each party here. 

Swing maps

Liberal swing (2007-2011)

 

Progressive Conservative swing (2007-2011)

As you can see from these two maps, it's a very bad idea to assume uniform swings in Prince Edward Island, where the local candidate matters quite a lot. Especially in this election, where there was little difference in the overall share of the vote from last time, local candidates made more of an impact as to how each riding swung. From looking at these maps, there's not many noticeable patterns. There are red and green ridings for both the Tories and the Liberals in all the regions.

Prince Edward Island 2011 election final prediction

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith.

Prince Edward goes to the polls today, and so it's time for my final projection for the province. There have been few polls of the province during the campaign. The most recent one was released on Thursday, and so that will be what my projection will be based on.

The poll, conducted by Corporate Research Associates was quite large for PEI standards, with 700 respondents. Unfortunately, unlike the poll before it, I have not been able to find any regional numbers, so I will have to make some guesses on that front.

The polls shows that the Tories are up 5 points to 36%, while the Liberals are down 6 points to 53%, the same mark they got in the 2007 election. The NDP and the Greens are now tied with 5% each. This increase for the Tories means that some seats are now in play for them. My guess is that much of this gain occurred in Prince and Kings counties. Kings is the only place where the Tories won seats last time. However, it's possible with the current numbers to win in Prince County. Alberton-Roseville was close last time, and if the Liberals are down in Prince like I think they might be, that particular riding is in play. However, I could be way off base.

Let's look at my projections:

Projections

Riding	Lib	PC	NDP	Grn	Oth	Projected winner
Alberton-Roseville	48	46	-	5	1	Pat Murphy
Belfast-Murray River	44	49	-	6	1	Darlene Compton
Borden-Kinkora	62	28	-	10	-	George Webster
Charlottetown-Brighton	64	21	6	9	-	Robert Ghiz
Charlottetown-Lewis Point	63	28	5	4	-	Kathleen Casey
Charlottetown-Parkdale	62	26	8	4	-	Doug Currie
Charlottetown-Sherwood	61	28	6	5	-	Robert Mitchell
Charlottetown-Victoria Park	61	23	5	11	-	Richard Brown
Cornwall-Meadowbank	63	31	-	5	1	Ron MacKinley
Evangeline-Miscouche	55	38	-	6	1	Sonny Gallant
Georgetown-St. Peter's	43	46	6	4	1	Steven Myers
Kellys Cross-Cumberland	55	26	8	9	2	Valerie Docherty
Kensington-Malpeque	61	35	4	-	-	Wes Sheridan
Montague-Kilmuir	47	47	-	4	2	Allan Roach
Morell-Mermaid	40	55	-	4	1	Olive Crane
O'Leary-Inverness	60	40	-	-	-	Robert Henderson
Rustico-Emerald	71	24	-	5	-	Carolyn Bertram
Souris-Elmira	53	46	-	-	1	Allan Campbell
Stratford-Kinlock	48	41	5	6	-	Cynthia Dunsford
Summerside-St. Eleanors	52	38	5	5	-	Gerard Greenan
Summerside-Wilmot	55	39	-	5	1	Janice Sherry
Tignish-Palmer Road	53	46	-	-	1	Neil LeClair
Tracadie-Hillsborough Park	61	27	6	5	1	Buck Watts
Tyne Valley-Linkletter	56	44	-	-	-	Paula Biggar
Vernon River-Stratford	50	39	6	5	-	Alan McIsaac
West Royalty-Springvale	57	33	4	6	-	Bush Dumville
York-Oyster Bed	59	27	8	6	-	Robert Vessey

Predicting the toss ups

Alberton-Roseville:

This riding was the closest in Prince County in 2007, when Alberton mayor Pat Murphy defeated the Tory incumbent, Cletus Dunn by just 123 votes. The riding was also the Tory's best in Prince County in 1996, when the whole region shunned the Tories. It still voted Liberal that year. Dunn won both the 2000 and 2003 elections by comfortable margins. Murphy is facing Tory David Gordon, who does not appear to be a terribly strong candidate. I am fairly certain this riding will go Liberal.

Belfast-Murray River:

This seat was held by former Tory Premier Pat Binns until he resigned in 2007 after his party went down to defeat. The ensuing by-election elected a Liberal, local fisherman Charlie McGeoghegan over businesswoman Darlene Compton. The two will be duking it out again this time. McGeoghegan won the by-election by over 400 votes, a fairly comfortable margin for such small districts, but I expect he will be going down to defeat in this traditionally Tory district.

Georgetown-St. Peter's:

This riding has never voted Liberal since being created in 1996. However, it is an open seat, so it will be one to watch on election night. The Tories won by just 300 votes in 2007. The Tory candidate, Steven Myers is going against the Liberal candidate Kevin Gotell. Due to its Tory history, I do expect the PCs to keep this seat, although it will be close.

Montague-Kilmuir:

Another open seat is Montague-Kilmuir. This seat has also always elected the Tories since 1996. However, the margin was much closer in 2007, with the Tories winning by just 134 votes. I do have the current projection as being a tie, but with the Liberals slightly ahead. The Liberals are running RCMP officer Allen Roach against businessman Greg Farrell of the Tories, two competent rivals. However, I think Roach will win it. The Liberals may not have the history here, but the seat is open and, it was close last time.

Changes since the last prediction / conclusion

I have the Tories winning three seats, two more then my last projection. As mentioned, I now have them winning Georgetown-St. Peter's and Belfast-Murray River.

The PEI election will be somewhat of a snoozefest. It will be interesting to see how many seats the Tories can win, if any at all though.

Make sure to follow me on twitter this evening for live commentary. Polls close at 7pm Atlantic (6 Eastern).

Also note, the Northwest Territories will also be going to the polls tomorrow. I will be making a map of that election, but since they use consensus government, the mapping will be different.