Louis-Hébert by-election today

Voters in the Quebec riding of Louis-Hébert head to the polls today to elect a new member of the Quebec National Assembly. The riding was vacated in April when its MNA, Liberal Sam Hamad resigned. He had held the seat since 2003, taking the riding back from the separatist PQ in 2003.

Louis-Hébert is located in the western suburbs of Quebec City, taking in part of the former city of Sainte-Foy (specifically the districts of L'Aéroport and Pointe-de-Sainte Foy) and the former city of Cap-Rouge, plus the municipality of Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures.

While the riding has existed since 1966, its boundaries before the 2001 redistribution covered less than half of its current territory, though the riding has been based in the western suburbs of the city since its creation. Before the 2001 redistribution, much of the riding was located in the riding of La Peltrie, which is now northwest of the city. Its new boundaries have proved to be good for the Liberal Party, as they won the seat in every election since. But by no means is it safe; Hamad won the seat in the 2007 election by fewer than 900 votes (over the ADQ), and had another close race in 2012, beating the CAQ candidate by a little over 2000 votes.

The riding is overwhelmingly Francophone (97%), with a small percentage (2%) being Anglophone. It is also overwhelmingly White (97%), mostly of French Canadian stock, but it has a non-negligible population of Irish ancestry. Most of the population is Catholic (86%) while 11% have no religion. The riding is significantly more wealthy than the province as a whole. The median income is $50,000 (compared to the provincial median of $33,000). 

2014 results by neighbourhood

Geographically, the main political split in the riding is between the rural area (such as Saint-Augustin) which tends to vote for right-of-centre parties and the urban part of the riding (Cap-Foy and Pointe-de-Sainte-Foy) which tends to vote the Liberals. This split was less obvious in 2014 with Hamad winning the seat by 23 points. In fact on election day, the Liberals won a slightly higher share of the vote in Saint-Augustin than in the Quebec City part of the riding. The right-of-centre CAQ also did better in Saint-Augustin, winning 36% of the election day votes there compared to 30% in Quebec City. Both left-of-centre parties, the PQ and Quebec solidaire did better in Quebec City, but are generally not a good fit for this wealthy riding.

Based on current polling, the race could see a close match between the Liberals and the CAQ. The Liberals are running Hamad's former assistant Ihsanne El Ghernati, who was chosen quickly after the previous candidate had to drop out, following complaints from his former employees. The CAQ is running Genevieve Guilbeaut, the former spokesperson for Quebec's coroner's office. She also was chosen quickly after their candidate dropped out after a controversy as well. As for the other parties, the PQ is running biologist Norman Beauregard and Quebec solidaire is running lawyer Guillaume Boivin. It will be the first test for the new NDP provincial wing which just re-registered its party status after a 23 year hiatus. They are running former MP Denis Blanchette who held the federal riding of Louis-Hébert from 2011 to 2015. The Greens are running their leader, Alex Tyrrell.

Polls close at 8pm.

Kamloops mayoral and council by-elections

Residents of Kamloops, British Columbia will be heading to the polls tomorrow in a mayoral by-election. The city of 90,000 people, located in the British Columbia Interior's Thompson Country has had its top job vacant since its previous mayor, Peter Milobar was elected to the British Columbia legislature in last Spring's provincial election. Milobar had been mayor since 2008, and sits as a member of the BC Liberal Party in Victoria. In addition to the mayoral by-election, there are two city council vacancies which will also be filled in tomorrow's election.

Politically, Kamloops is well known as a bellwether in provincial politics, the area has voted for whichever party that has won the most seats in every provincial election since the first Kamloops riding was created in 1903 (a longer streak than any other part of the province). This continued true in last Spring's election which saw both of Kamloops' ridings vote Liberal, as that party won the plurality of the seats in the BC legislature (the NDP would end up forming government with the help of the Greens). Federally, Kamloops has been more conservative than the country as whole in who it sends to Ottawa. It has been held by the Tories since 2004, and the Canadian Alliance before that (from 2000). Before 2000, the NDP's Nelson Riis held Kamloops' riding, so it has gone NDP recently. It has not voted Liberal since 1974. The 2015 election saw a three-way race between the Conservatives, NDP and Liberals.

Unlike some of the larger cities in British Columbia, there are no municipal parties on city council. But just like nearly every municipality in the province, there are also no wards. In addition to voting for mayor, residents get eight votes for city council for the eight positions available in regular municipal elections.

Map of Kamloops' 17 arbitrarily drawn polling divisions used in the 2014 election

In the last mayoral election in the city, held in 2014, voters got to choose which voting place to vote at, whether it was close to home, close to work, or wherever they wanted to. This means it is impossible to accurately map the results of the election, as not only are there no wards to map the results, there are no polling divisions with definite boundaries to map either. But, I still attempted to map the 2014 mayoral election, by dividing the city into zones with arbitrarily drawn boundaries surrounding the city's 17 polling stations used in that election. Using this method, I was still able to find an obvious pattern in the results. While Milobar easily won re-election with 78% of the vote, his support was much stronger in the city's suburbs, where he won most polls with over 80% of the vote. His support was much weaker in the inner part of the city, with his worst poll being located in the city's downtown, which he won with “just” 68% of the vote. Milobar's main opponent was Pierre Filisetti, an owner of local gardening and landscaping business, who would go on to plead guilty for assault last year in a bear-spray incident. Filisetti's support was stronger where Milobar's wasn't, and vise-versa. As a BC Liberal (which is a right wing party in BC), Milobar's strength was in the same areas that tend to vote for that party in provincial elections. Kamloop's central core, where Milobar's support was weakest usually votes NDP in both provincial and federal elections.

Outlook

In the race to replace Milobar, there are six candidates, but just one really stands out as his likely successor, councillor Ken Christian. Christian was the top vote-getter out of all city council candidates in the 2014 election, winning over 12,000 votes (comparatively, Milobar won over 17,000 votes). Christian has been on Kamloops' City Council since 2008, and was a school trustee prior to that. He has been endorsed by both Kamloops-South Thompson MLA Todd Stone and former mayor and former Kamloops-North Thompson MLA Terry Lake (both Liberals).

The two main candidates for mayor

The candidate who poses the most threat to Christian is probably Bill McQuarrie, who is a columnist for a local TV station. McQuarrie has been campaigning on a “diversified economy” and getting rid of property tax increases. Other candidates include: Non-profit director Glenn Hilke who ran for city council in 2014 (winning 1% of the vote), who is running on affordable housing and other social issues; Former logger Stu Holland, who wants to “represent working people”, and wants to open the proposed Ajax mine, which has been a divisive issue in the city; Mike McKenzie, who wants to “bring the city together” and is a self described “local and national youth and community representative”; and Todd McLeod, and air-ambulance paramedic.

The race for city council will probably be more interesting, as there are 22 candidates running for the two open positions. One of the positions was held by Ken Christian, who resigned to run for mayor. The second position was vacated by Marg Spina, who resigned her seat after being diagnosed with brain cancer. Notable candidates running are former councillor Nancy Bepple who was the NDP's candidate in Kamloops-South Thompson in this year's provincial election, and Kevin Krueger who was a local Liberal MLA from 1996 to 2013 (representing Kamloops-North Thompson from 1996 to 2009 and Kamloops-South Thompson from 2009 to 2013). Another strong candidate is Kathy Sinclair, who is the executive director of the Kamloops Art Council. Not being very familiar with Kamloops politics, I can't make many predictions, but would not be surprised if the city elects two right-of-centre candidates based on its politics.

Polls close at 8pm (11pm Eastern).

Ontario provincial by-election preview (Ottawa-Vanier and Niagara West-Glanbrook)

Today there are a couple of provincial by-elections being held in Ontario, one in the riding of Ottawa—Vanier and one in Niagara West—Glanbrook. Ottawa—Vanier was vacated in June when its MPP, Madeleine Meilleur announced her retirement. Meilleur, a Liberal represented the riding since 2003 and served in the cabinets of both Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne. Niagara West—Glanbrook was vacated in September when its MPP, Tim Hudak resigned to become the CEO of the Ontario Real Estate Association. Hudak was the leader of the Progressive Conservatives from 2009 to 2014, leading the party in the last two provincial elections to disappointing defeats. Hudak had been an MPP since 1995.

The governing Liberals have continued to slide in the polls in recent months. In September, they lost a key by-election in Scarborough—Rouge River to the Tories, in what had been a safe Liberal seat. Since then, province-wide polling has shown that they have dropped at least 10 more points, with the most recent Mainstreet Research poll putting them in third place behind the NDP. Today's by-elections are in safe seats, but it will be interesting to see the swings against the Liberals in both ridings, and how well the two opposition parties gain at their expense.

Ottawa—Vanier

Geography

Ottawa—Vanier is located in the east end of Ottawa, running from the Rideau Canal in the west to Green's Creek in the east. The northern boundary is the Ottawa River, while the southern boundary follows Highway 417, Blair Road and Montreal Road. The riding is socioeconomically very diverse; it contains Ottawa's oldest neighbourhood (Lowertown) in the west, post war suburbs in the east, some of Ottawa's poorest neighbourhoods and also Ottawa's richest neighbourhood (Rockcliffe Park). The riding is home to both the normal residence of the Prime Minister (24 Sussex) and the Governor General (Rideau Hall). The riding is named for its largest neighbourhood, Vanier which used to be an independent city until it amalgamated with Ottawa in 2001. Rockcliffe Park was also an independent municipality until amalgamation. The post-war suburbs in the east and southeast parts of the riding were formerly in the City of Gloucester until amalgamation. Other notable neighbourhoods in the riding include Sandy Hill, the By Ward Market, New Edinburgh, Manor Park, Overbrook, Beacon Hill North and Pineview. The riding is also home to the University of Ottawa.

Demographics

Ottawa-Vanier is one of the most Francophone ridings in the province, with nearly one third (31%) of the riding having French as their mother tongue. Vanier itself is almost 50% French, but the surrounding neighbourhoods also have high French populations. Lowertown historically has had a high Francophone population, but it has decreased in recent decades. The riding is still a majority Anglo, with 52% of the population having English as their first language. Arabic is the next most spoken mother tongue at 4%. 72% of the riding is White, with much of this population having French, English, Irish and Scottish origins. 10% of the riding is Black, while there are significant populations of Arabs, South Asians, Aboriginals and Chinese. Nearly two-thirds of the riding (66%) is Christian, with 45% of the population being Catholic. 8% of the riding is Muslim, while 23% have no religion.

Despite the presence of wealthy Rockcliffe Park in the riding, Ottawa—Vanier is very much working class. The median household income in the riding is $57,000 (provincial median is $66,000) while the average income is $77,000 (provincial average is $86,000). The median individual income ($32,000) is slightly higher than the provincial median ($31,000). Due to the riding's close proximity to the Downtown, nearly a quarter of the labour force works in public administration, dwarfing all other industries.

History

Owing to its large Francophone, working class and public sector populations, Ottawa—Vanier and its predecessor ridings have reliably voted Liberal throughout its history. Today, it is one of the safest Liberal ridings in the province. It has voted Liberal continuously since 1971 (and has won a majority of the vote in every election since), and was the party's 8^th best seat in 2014. In that election, Meilleur won 56% of the vote, while her PC opponent won 22% and the NDP candidate won 13%. Once in a while the riding has elected Tories, but only once in a blue moon. Since last winning the riding in 1967, the PCs have only broken over 30% of the vote once (in 1999). The NDP has never won the riding, but has on occasion finished second. They have only broken 20% once in the riding's history though, and that was in 1990, when the party was swept in to power. Owing to its sizable and historical francophone populations, the riding has elected only Francophones to Queen's Park since 1911.

Until 1908, all of Ottawa was represented in Queen's Park by the riding of Ottawa (which at times also included surrounding villages that would later be absorbed by the city). In 1908, the riding was split into two parts, Ottawa East and Ottawa West. Ottawa East would naturally include the eastern parts of the city, namely Sandy Hill, Lowertown and New Edinburgh. In 1933 it was expanded to include Old Ottawa East and a strange westerly protrusion which included Parliament Hill, LeBreton Flats and Mechanicsville (but not the rest of Downtown Ottawa). In 1966 the boundaries changed again, and the riding would only include Sandy Hill, Lowertown, New Edinburgh, as well as the city of Eastview which would become Vanier in 1969. Over the next few decades, the riding grew in size, gaining Forbes and Overbrook in 1975, Carson Grove, Cyrville and Quarries in 1987, and finally Pineview and Beacon Hill North in 1999 when the riding became known as Ottawa—Vanier (matching the federal riding). 

List of MPPs for the area

Political geography

One look at the 2014 map of the riding, and one would think that Ottawa—Vanier is a pretty homogenous place, as nearly every single poll voted Liberal. In fact, only three polls voted Tory, and just one voted NDP. This is how the riding usually goes though. The Liberals win nearly every single poll, while the NDP and the Tories are lucky to win a handful across the riding. Usually, the Tories will win a few suburban polls in the east of the riding, or maybe a poll or two in Rockcliffe Park, while the NDP might win a few polls in Sandy Hill or Lowertown. In 2014, the Liberals won every single neighbourhood in the riding, winning a majority of the vote in most of them. Meilleur's best neighbourhood was Viscount Alexander Park, where she won 63% of the vote. Her worst neighbourhood was the wealthier Rothwell Heights neighbourhood, where she still won 46%, but lost two polls. Rothwell Heights was the best Tory neighbourhood, where they won one poll and 39% of the vote. Their worst neighbourhood was Sandy Hill where they won 15% of the vote. The best neighbourhood for the NDP was Sandy Hill, thanks in part to a large student population. They won 17% of the vote there. The worst NDP neighbourhood was Rockcliffe Park, where they won just 4% of the vote.

2014 provincial election results by neighbourhood

Federally, Ottawa—Vanier has seen different political maps in recent elections. While 2015 was a Liberal wash here, the 2011 election was much more interesting as it was relatively close with the Liberals winning 38% of the vote, the NDP winning 29% and the Conservatives 27%. The Liberals may have won the riding, but you wouldn't know it by looking at a map. The NDP won most of the working class western part of the riding (Sandy Hill, Vanier, Lowertown and Overbrook), while the Conservatives won much of the middle class suburbs in the eastern part of the riding (such as Beacon Hill and Pineview). The Liberals won the wealthier northern neighbourhoods of the riding like Manor Park and New Edinburgh, and the won the riding by finishing 2^nd place everywhere else.

Outlook

No matter the outcome of today's by-election, the riding will still be represented by another Francophone, as all of the major parties have nominated one. Even with their low poll numbers, the Liberals are still the favourites to win, thanks to the riding's demographics and long history of voting Liberal. I should also note anecdotally, the Ottawa area is far removed from the world of Toronto-centred provincial politics, and so anger against the provincial government is not as strong here. The probable winner of today's by-election is Liberal candidate Nathalie Des Rosiers, the dean of common law at the University of Ottawa. Her strongest challenge will likely come from the Tory candidate, André Marin who is the former ombudsman of the province. The NDP's candidate is Claude Bisson, a former RCMP officer and brother of Timmins—James Bay MPP Gilles Bisson. The Green Party candidate is Raphaël Morin, who ran for the Greens in last year's federal election in his home riding of Orleans.

Niagara West—Glanbrook

 

Geography

Niagara West—Glanbrook is located on the south shore of Lake Ontario on the Niagara Peninsula, nestled between the southern and eastern edges of Hamilton and the western edges of the St. Catharines-Niagara metropolitan area. The riding is home to a number of bedroom communities serving both metros, and all of the rural area in between. The western third of the riding lies within the city limits of Hamilton, consisting of the former Township of Glanbrook and the part of the former city of Stoney Creek south of the Niagara escarpment. Both of these areas were amalgamated into Hamilton proper in 2001. This region of the riding contains newer subdivisions, spilling out from the core of Hamilton, a couple of commuter villages (Mount Hope and Binbrook) and a large swath of rural area.

Along the north shore of the riding are the municipalities of Grimsby and Lincoln, which are a mix of bedroom communities (such as Grimsby itself, Beamsville and Vineland) and rural areas. Toward the interior south of the riding is the Township of West Lincoln, which is almost entirely rural except for the community of Smithville. And finally, in the southeast corner of the riding is the Town of Pelham, which is basically just a suburb of neighbouring Welland. Most of the population of Pelham lives in the community of Fonthill.

Demographics

Being a mostly rural/small town riding, Niagara West—Glanbrook is a fairly homogeneously White, Anglo-Saxon, Christian riding. 93% of the riding is White, with the main ethnic groups in the riding being English, Scottish, Irish, Dutch, Italian, German and French. 86% of the riding has English as their mother tongue, with Italian and Dutch being the next two biggest languages at 2% each. Over three-quarters (76%) of the riding is Christian. 32% of the riding is Catholic, 10% are United Church and 9% are Anglican. 21% have no religion. The riding is quite a bit more wealthy than the province as a whole. The median household income in the riding is $80,000 (provincial median is $66,000) while the median individual income is $45,000 (provincial median is $31,000). Manufacturing is the largest industry, with health care and social assistance not being too far behind.

History

As a riding, Niagara West—Glanbrook is a new creation, born in time for the 2007 election. A bare majority of the district (Glanbrook, Stoney Creek and Grimsby) came from the previous riding of Stoney Creek, while Lincoln and West Lincoln were previously in the riding of Erie—Lincoln and Pelham was in the riding of Niagara Centre. Tim Hudak had previously represented Erie—Lincoln, which included his hometown of Fort Erie. Fort Erie had been redistributed into the more Liberal-friendly Niagara Falls riding, and instead of running there, he ran in the new Niagara West riding, which had notionally voted PC in 2003. Hudak easily won the seat in 2007, 2011 and in 2014. He won a majority of the vote in both 2007 and 2011, but just 42% in 2014. He had been helped out by a vote split between the Liberals and NDP who won 28% and 22% respectively. The Liberals have always finished second here (ranging from 26% to 36% of the vote), while the NDP has always finished third (with results ranging from 12% to 22%).

Historically, the western part of the Niagara region in Ontario was found in the riding of Lincoln until that riding was split up in 1999 when provincial ridings were redistributed to match their federal counterparts. Lincoln was mostly a Tory seat for much of its history, though it did go Liberal once in a while and voted for the NDP in 1990. For most of its history, Lincoln contained the municipalities of Lincoln, West Lincoln and Grimsby (and sometimes Pelham), while the Hamilton part of the riding was located in Wentworth East (also known as just Wentworth), which included Glanbrook, all of Stoney Creek and sometimes part of suburban Hamilton. While Lincoln usually voted Tory, Wentworth often voted NDP.

List of MPPs for the area

 

Political geography

There are two kinds of political divides in this riding: rural vs. urban and west (Hamilton) vs. east. The eastern part of this riding, which is mostly rural or urban bedroom communities vote more conservative, while the western part of the riding, which is influenced by the progressive voting patterns of urban Hamilton is less conservative. Urban areas, even the commuter towns are less conservative while the rural areas surrounding them are much more conservative. 

2014 election results by community

In the 2014 election, Hudak's strongest region of the riding was West Lincoln Township, where he won 59% of the vote. The rural part of the township was even better for him, as he won 62% of the vote there. His worst region in the riding was in Stoney Creek, where he only won 26% of the vote, coming in third behind the Liberals (35%) and the NDP (33%). Stoney Creek was the best region for both those parties. The worst neighbourhood for Hudak was the Tirinity/Highland area of Stoney Creek, where he won just 23% of the vote. The strongest neighbourhood for the Liberals was actually in Glanbrook. The new subdivision of Summit Park, which is located adjacent to Stoney Creek gave the Liberals 41% of the vote. The worst part of the riding for the Liberals was the rural part of West Lincoln, which gave them just 14%. The best neighbourhood for the NDP was Valley Park in Stoney Creek, where they won 36% of the vote and the worst area was rural Lincoln, where they won 14%.

Outlook

With this riding being a pretty safe one to begin with for the Tories, they should have no problem maintaining it in today's by-election, especially considering their increased poll numbers. The only caveat is that they are running a rather controversial candidate in the 19 year old Sam Oosterhoff, who will become Ontario's youngest MPP ever if he wins. Oosterhoff, a Brock University student won the Tory nomination in a surprise upset, defeating former MP Rick Dykstra and regional councillor Tony Quirk. Oosterhoff's candidacy has been controversial due to his conservative views on abortion, same-sex marriage and Ontario's new sex-ed curriculum. Despite his controversial views, he will in all likelihood win the seat, meaning the real race will be for second place between the Liberals and NDP. Running for the Liberals is Hamilton lawyer Vicky Ringuette and running for the NDP is former Hamilton police union leader Mike Thomas. The NDP has never finished second in the riding in its short history, but did finish second in the 2011 federal election. The Green Party candidate is Donna Cridland, who lives in a neighbouring riding.

Polls close in both ridings at 9pm.

Scarborough--Rouge River by-election today

Another provincial by-election is being held this week, this time in Ontario, in the suburban Toronto riding of Scarborough—Rouge River, to fill a vacancy created last March when its provincial member of parliament, Bas Balkissoon unexpectedly resigned for mysterious reasons. Balkissoon, a member of the governing Liberal Party, had represented the riding since a by-election in 2005. The riding has a long history of voting for the Liberals; it has voted Liberal in every provincial election since 1985. However, recent election races in the riding have been fairly close, and the expectation is that this by-election will be too.

Scarborough—Rouge River is located in the northeast corner of Toronto, covering a number of very diverse neighbourhoods like Malvern and Agincourt North. It is named for the Rouge River, which runs through the east end of the riding. East of the Rouge River is Rouge Park, which covers about a quarter of the riding's area and surrounds the famous Toronto Zoo. The urban area of the riding is divided into two clusters, Malvern/Morningside Heights in the east and Agincourt/Millken in the west. These urban areas are further divided into sub-neighbourhoods.

Map of Scarborough--Rouge River's neighbourhoods

Demographics

Scarborough—Rouge River is noteworthy for its huge immigrant population. A full two-thirds of residents are immigrants, over half of which have immigrated to Canada since 1981. China and Sri Lanka are the biggest source of immigrants to the riding, but many immigrants have come from the Philippines, India and Hong Kong too. Only 5% of the residents are third or more generation Canadians.

While the riding is very diverse as whole, it is not just one big mixed bag; the two urban clusters have attracted immigrants from different sources. The western half of the riding (west of Markham Road) is heavily Chinese, while the eastern half of the riding is more diverse, but is dominated by a large South Asian population. All together, the riding is 33% South Asian, 31% Chinese, 11% Black and only 8% White – making it one of the least Caucasian ridings in the country. Another 8% of the riding is Filipino. English is still the mother tongue of a plurality of residents (40%), while Chinese is the first language of 27% and Tamil of 12%. 39% of the riding is Christian, with about half of that being Catholic. 21% of the riding is Hindu, the largest concentration of Hindus in any riding in the province. 9% of the riding is Muslim.

The riding is a bit poorer than the province as a whole. The median household income in the riding is $62,000 (provincial median is $66,000) while the median individual income is $21,000 (provincial median is $31,000). The largest industries are manufacturing, retail trade and health care and social assistance.

History

For most of its post-confederation history, this part of Scarborough was mostly farmland, and Malvern was but a village with a post office. From Confederation until 1955, all of Scarborough was located in the provincial riding of York East. At that point all of Scarborough became the riding of York—Scarborough until Scarborough's post war population growth necessitated that the riding be split up into small ridings in 1963. At that time, everything in Scarborough east of Markham Road became the riding of Scarborough East and everything west of Markham Road and north of Lawrence Avenue became Scarborough North. Over the next few decades, the north end of Scarborough began to grow, with development only finally slowing down in the 2000s.

Beginning at the 1975 election, all of the north end of Scarborough was united within a newly-shaped Scarborough North riding. Population growth made the riding smaller over the course of its history until the area became Scarborough—Rouge River in 1999 when provincial riding boundaries were made to match their federal counterparts. This means that in the next provincial election, most of the riding will be transferred to the new riding of Scarborough North, while the eastern half of Malvern will be moved to the new riding of Scarborough—Rouge Park. (On a side note, the arbitrary division of the Malvern community is quite unfortunate, considering that a better boundary could have been Markham Road, would have made not only a better “natural” border, but also marks the border of the two major ethnic communities in Scarborough's north end.) 

Scarborough--Rouge River MPP list

Scarborough North and Scarborough—Rouge River have been continuously represented by Liberals since 1985, with Alvin Curling representing the area until Balkissoon's by-election win in 2005. Before 1985, the area was a safe Tory seat, but the increasing number of immigrants moving into the area helped the Liberals take it and made it into a safe Liberal seat. The riding would remain a safe Liberal seat until both the NDP and Progressive Conservatives began making inroads into the minority communities. In 2011, NDP candidate and school trustee Neethan Shan, an immigrant from Sri Lanka, gave Balkissoon (himself an immigrant from Trinidad and Tobago) a run for his money, losing by just over 2000 votes. The 2014 election would become a three-way race with city councillor Raymond Cho (a Korean immigrant) running for the Tories against Balkissoon and Shan, who ran again. Fewer than 5,000 votes separated the first place Balkissoon and the third place Cho. With the Liberals moving to the left in their rhetoric in that election, it is possible many socially conservative immigrants were turned off of by the Liberals as the riding was only one of a few in the province that saw a swing from the Liberals to the PCs.

Political geography

Following the recent collapse of the Ontario Liberal Party's (and to a lesser extent, the federal Liberal Party) support among all immigrant groups in this riding, the Chinese western half and the South Asian eastern half of the riding have begun voting differently. Whether this has something to do with the party platforms or their respective candidates remains to be seen. However, patterns have emerged since 2011 showing that the Chinese population is increasingly voting for Conservative candidates, while the South Asian population has been increasingly voting NDP. The Liberals have still been able to get enough votes from both communities, and from the other minority groups in the riding (such as Filipinos and Caribbean Blacks) to still win the seat. In 2014, the only neighbourhood in the riding to vote PC (Port Royal) also happens to be the most Chinese neighbourhood in the riding, with 76% of the population there being of Chinese ancestry. Meanwhile, the neighbourhoods that voted NDP (Brookside, Dean Park, Morningside Heights) have the highest South Asian populations in the riding. The rest of the riding voted Liberal in 2014, to varying degrees, and is home to a more diverse population than the aforementioned neighbourhoods.

Partisan index map by neighbourhood

Just like in my Halifax Needham post from Tuesday, I also did a partisan voting index map for Scarborough--Rouge River. In each neighbourhood, I calculated the average difference in support between each of the three parties in the last two elections from the provincial average. This is slightly different than the calculations I did last time, as I had compared the Liberals to the NDP only (with the index showing the difference from an even two-way race), but this time I used three parties, so I couldn't do that, but it amounts to pretty much the same thing. Anyways, the map shows the NDP has done much better across the riding (especially in the east) compared to their province-wide numbers, while the Liberals are about even, while the Tories tend to under-perform throughout the riding. 

These ethnic voting patterns have been evident in recent federal elections as well. In the 2011 federal election, the western half of the riding went Conservative, while the eastern half overwhelmingly backed the NDP's Rathika Sitsabaiesan, a Sri Lankan Tamil, who ended up winning the seat with 41% of the vote. With the riding's South Asian community split into two ridings in 2015, Sitsabaiesan was forced to run in the more Chinese-dominated Scarborough North seat, where she finished in a distant third behind the Liberal's Shaun Chen and the Conservative's Ravinder Malhi. The rest of the riding became part of the new riding Scarborough—Rouge Park which the Liberals easily won with their candidate, another Sri Lankan Tamil, Gary Anandasangaree. Did the 2015 election show that immigrants had come back to the Liberal fold? Perhaps, but only time will tell. What is clear is that South Asians appear more receptive to the Liberal Party than Chinese Canadians who are more divided in their voting allegiances. 

Results by neighbourhood in the 2011 and 2014 provincial elections

Outlook

While the federal Liberals remain hugely popular in Ontario, their provincial counterparts are polling very poorly, and are well behind the leading Tories. The Liberals have now been in power for 13 years, and have endured scandal after scandal after scandal. While poor inter-election poll results is nothing new for the Liberals, they are especially at a low point – the most recent Forum Research poll from August indicating they are now 13 points behind the Tories. And one issue that is hurting them, especially with socially conservative immigrant voters is the liberalization of the province's sex ed curriculum. Popular among progressives in the province, it has been more religious, especially immigrant voters who have been the most opposed to it. One would think that this would help the Tories, considering their new leader, Patrick Brown was elected with the backing socially conservative immigrant groups. Earlier in the year he vowed to overturn the new curriculum if elected as Premier, but he has since backpedalled and has now indicated that he won't be overturning the law, a move that will not help him win a riding that is overwhelmingly immigrant.

Two polls released on the eve of the election from Mainstreet Research and Forum Research have shown that we are indeed headed for a close race. Mainstreet's poll shows the Tories have a 5 point lead over the Liberals, while Forum's poll shows a tie between the two parties. Perhaps unexpectedly, both polls show the NDP well behind in third place, despite the party finishing second in both of the last provincial candidates. One thing to keep in mind is that it is incredibly difficult to poll ridings with a large immigrant population. I saw this constantly in my polling work at EKOS in the last election, and Scarborough North (the new federal riding overlapping Scarborough—Rouge River) was no exception. Impressively, Mainstreet's poll was conducted in Cantonese, Mandarin and Tamil (in addition to English), and was even weighted by ethnic group. The details of the Forum poll were not published, but I personally doubt they went to the extent Mainstreet did. As a pollster, I am particularly curious to see how well Mainstreet's poll does, considering the methodology they used. Will the data be more accurate, or was it all an exercise in futility in an impossible-to-poll riding?

Two names on the ballot will be the same as in the 2014 election. City councillor Raymond Cho will once again be the PC candidate. Cho actually represents the eastern half of the riding on city council, and has been involved in municipal politics since 1991. Cho was once a New Democrat, having run for the NDP in the 1988 federal election. Cho later became a Liberal, and ran as an “Independent Liberal” in the 2004 federal election, which upset the party. He then joined the Progressive Conservatives and ran in 2014. The NDP candidate is once again Neethan Shan, who was recently elected to represent the riding as a school trustee for the Toronto District School Board. This will be his third attempt to win the seat, after having come second in 2011 and 2014. This election will be Shan's 10^th electoral contest of his life. He was first elected as a school trustee in Markham in 2006 after losing in his first attempt in 2003. He then ran for the NDP in Scarborough—Guildwood in 2007, then for Toronto city council in 2010 and 2014, losing both times to Cho. Fast forward to last January when Shan was elected as a trustee in an unnecessary, low turnout by-election (as all school board elections are!). One thing that might be hurting his poll numbers is that he may be seen as an opportunist- and who wants to vote in another school board by-election if he wins? As for the Liberals, their candidate is Piragal Thiru who is described as a “Liberal activist”, and is a refugee from Sri Lanka. He won the Liberal nomination by defeating the riding's former MP, Rathika Sitsabaiesan who had switched parties from the NDP. With two Sri Lankans in the race, it is entirely possible their vote will be split enough to allow the Tories to win the seat, which I believe is the most likely scenario (but, hey- I was wrong about Tuesday's race in Halifax!).

There are five other candidates in the race. The Greens, who never do very well here, are running administrator Priyan De Silva. There are also Freedom and Libertarian Party candidates, a “None of the Above” candidate who is running as “Above Znoneofthe” (presumably to ensure they are last on the ballot) and an independent candidate, Queenie Yu, who running almost exclusively to repeal the changes made to the Sex Ed curriculum.

We'll see if I'm right about the Tories picking this seat up when polls close at 9:00pm.

Chicoutimi by-election charts and maps

Today, there is a provincial by-election in the riding of Chicoutimi in Quebec. The riding has been vacant since last October when PQ MNA Stéphane Bédard resigned his seat.

The riding of Chicoutimi, located in northeastern Quebec has been a PQ stronghold since 1973. It consists of the former city of Chicoutimi, which is now part of the city of Saguenay. The riding is one of the most nationalist in Quebec, voting yes in both the 1980 and 1995 referendums by large margins.

I have been quite busy lately, so I haven't had the chance to do my usual by-election profile. The riding should be an easy PQ hold though, so it shouldn't be that interesting of a race.  The PQ is running businesswoman Mireille Jean as their candidate. Polls show her as the clear front runner.

Despite not having the time to do a write up, I have made plenty of charts and a map...

As you can see, the PQ won most of the riding in 2014, though the Liberals were strong in the southern and eastern suburbs. The CAQ won one poll as did Saguenay councillor Marc Pettersen, who ran as an independent.

Here are the results by city council district for the last provincial and federal elections:

2014 provincial election in Chicoutimi - results by municipal district

2015 federal election in Chicoutimi - results by municipal district

The following chart shows the vote progression of the riding since 1989. The boundaries have not shifted since then.

Chicoutimi vote progression

And finally here is a list of the MNAs who have represented Chicoutimi since confederation:

Polls close at 8pm.

Whitby-Oshawa by-election today

Today, voters in the suburban Greater Toronto Area (GTA) riding of Whitby—Oshawa are heading to the polls to elect a new member to Queen's Park, Ontario's legislative assembly. The riding was vacated in August, when its Member of Provincial Parliament (MPP), Christine Elliott resigned her seat. Elliott, the wife of the late Jim Flaherty, who was Canada's Finance Minister from 2006 to 2014, had run for the leadership of the Ontario Progressive Conservatives in 2014. She was the frontrunner from the onset, but was defeated by the insurgent candidacy of then Barrie Member of Parliament (MP) Patrick Brown. A week after Brown was elected in a by-election to the legislature, she resigned her seat, prompting today's by-election. She will become Ontario's first Patient Ombudsman next year.

This will be the second by-election in Whitby—Oshawa in fewer than two years. There was a federal by-election held there back in November of 2014, to replace Flaherty who had passed away the previous Spring. The Conservatives held the seat in that by-election, but lost the re-distributed riding of Whitby in last Fall's federal election to the Liberals. You can read more about the riding's demographics and geography in my profile of the riding from 2014 here.  

 

Provincial history

The riding was created in 2005, when the provincial government decided to continue to have southern Ontario's riding boundaries match the federal boundaries (which has been the case since 1999), following the 2003 federal riding redistribution. Elliott has held the riding since its first election in 2007. She faced her toughest challenge in that election, defeating the second place Liberal candidate by over 4000 votes. In 2011, she expanded this winning margin to over 7500 votes. In 2014, she won the riding again, defeating her Liberal challenger by almost the same margin. In 2014, Whitby—Oshawa was only one of two GTA seats that the Tories won (the other being Thornhill), a testament to the popularity of the Elliott/Flaherty family.

Historical list of MPPs

Prior to 2007, Whitby was located in the riding of Whitby—Ajax. This was Jim Flaherty's riding before entering into federal politics. When he was elected to the House of Commons, Elliott won the seat in a by-election in 2006. Whitby—Ajax was created in 1996 when the Mike Harris government decided to shrink the size of Queen's Park so that the federal riding boundaries would match the provincial riding boundaries. Before this, Whitby was in the riding of Durham Centre from 1987 to 1999, in Durham West from 1975 to 1987, Ontario South (1967-1975), Ontario (1934-1967) and Ontario South again (1867-1934). 

Whitby--Oshawa vote progression

The Whitby area has been a Tory strong hold since the 1950s. Since 1955, the Progressive Conservatives have won the area in all but three elections. The NDP won in a three-way race in 1975 when that party formed the official opposition in a minority government, only to lose Whitby's riding in the next election in 1977. The Liberals picked it up in the 1987 landslide election, but lost it to the NDP when they won a surprise majority government in 1990. The Tories won the seat back in 1995, when Flaherty won the riding of Durham Centre in a landslide. Flaherty and his wife have held Whitby for the Tories ever since.

Political geography

As Whitby is mostly exclusively GTA suburbia, the whole town (yes, despite having a population of 122,000, Whitby is still a “town”) votes generally the same way. The Tories are a bit weaker in the northeast part of the town and in south. In 2014, the weakest neighbourhood for the Tories in Whitby was the new subdivision of Taunton North, located on the north side of Taunton Road. This was one of two neighbourhoods the Liberals managed to win, the other being Port Whitby, which is located on Lake Ontario in the south. The far north of Whitby is the most conservative part of the town, as this area is still mostly rural, except for the community of Brooklin. Rural Whitby was the only part of the town where Elliott managed to win a majority of the vote in 2014. The best neighbourhood for the Liberals was Port Whitby where they won 37% of the vote, and the best neighbourhood for the NDP was the Downtown, where they won 27% of the vote, but still in third place.

In the smaller Oshawa portion of the riding, the race in 2014 was more between the Tories and the NDP. The NDP won one neighbourhood in Oshawa (McLaughlin), which is the neighbourhood closest to Oshawa's downtown. In that neighbourhood, the NDP won 37% of the vote. The NDP always seems to manage to win a few polls there. Even in the 2014 federal by-election where the NDP won 8% of the vote across the riding, they still won a couple of polls in McLaughlin.

2014 provincial election results by neighbourhood

Outside of McLaughlin, the rest of the Oshawa portion of the riding is more Tory-leaning, as it is more suburban. In 2014, Elliott won every other neighbourhood in the city. Her strongest part of Oshawa was the rural northern part, where she won 47% of the vote. The Liberal's only finished second in one Oshawa neighbourhood, Northglen, which was also their best Oshawa neighbourhood, winning 29% of the vote.

Outlook

Despite the federal Liberals enjoying a honeymoon period following last Fall's federal election, the provincial Liberals in Ontario are deeply unpopular, following a number of scandals. The most recent poll published by Forum Research in December showed the Liberals trailing the Tories by 3 points (34-31), with Premier Kathleen Wynne at a rock bottom approval rating of 23%. This represents a drop of 8 points for the Liberals since the 2014 election, and a three point gain for the Tories. Based on this alone, it would seem that the Tories would be in a good position to keep a safe seat like Whitby—Oshawa in a by-election. And local riding polls confirm this. Mainstreet's last poll published just yesterday shows the Tories winning the riding over the Liberals 46% to 29%, with the NDP at a distant 12%. The Liberals have tried their best in their campaign in the riding, even bringing in Justin Trudeau, to rub some of that honeymoon love into the Liberal campaign, but to no avail.

Looking to keep the seat for the Progressive Conservatives is their candidate, Lorne Coe, one of three Durham regional councillors representing Whitby. His main opponent will be another one of those regional councillors, Elizabeth Roy, who is running for the Liberals. Roy previously ran against Elliott in the 2011 election. The NDP is running labour and human rights lawyer Niki Lundquist, while the Greens are running Stacey Leadbetter, a local law clerk.

One reason why the Tories have kept winning in Whitby was due to the popularity of Flaherty and Elliott. Demographically, the riding is not that much different from the rest of the suburban GTA, which was nearly swept by the Liberals in 2014. In last year's federal election, without either a Flaherty or an Elliott on the ballot, the Liberals managed to win the riding in a close race. Perhaps if the provincial Liberals enjoyed the popularity that their federal counterparts had, they could win this seat. But they do not, so it looks very likely that this riding will be a Tory hold.

Polls close at 9 pm.

4 Quebec provincial by-elections today

Canadian Election Atlas seat rating

Voters in four provincial ridings in Quebec are heading to the polls today to elect new members of the National Assembly. These by-elections are the first electoral event in the country following an historic federal election last month which saw the Liberals win a majority government. The federal Liberals won a majority by making inroads in Quebec, winning many seats for the first time in 35 years. The federal and provincial Liberals are technically different parties, but one cannot be faulted for presuming that the Liberal brand has greatly improved since Justin Trudeau became federal Liberal leader.

There have been no provincial polls published in Quebec since August, so it's difficult to predict exactly what will happen in today's by-elections. The last CROP poll from August had the governing Liberals at 33% (down 9 points since the 2014 election), the separatist Parti Quebecois (PQ) at 29% (up four points), the right of centre Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) at 23% (same as 2014) and the left wing Quebec Solidaire (QS) at 13% (up 5 points). The Liberals have been suffering due to unpopular austerity measures, while the PQ is – or was enjoying a small boost from last Spring's election of their new leader, Pierre Karl Peladeau. My guess is following the federal election, the Liberals have likely recovered much of this drop, and this recovery is likely going to come from their nearest ideological rivals, the CAQ.

Three of the four by-elections today are in safe seats. The Liberals are likely to win the Laval riding of Fabre, which they have held since 2003 and the Montreal riding of Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne, which they have held continuously since 1981. The PQ is likely to win the Côte-Nord riding of René-Lévesque, which they have held since 2003. The most interesting race will be in the riding of Beauce-Sud, located on the U.S. border south of Quebec City. This riding is located in the conservative leaning Chaudière-Appalaches region, and is a natural “CAQ riding”. Except, the Liberals won the riding by 12 points in 2014, and have won every election in the riding since 1979, except for when the CAQ's predecessor, the ADQ won it in 2007.

Beauce-Sud

The riding of Beauce-Sud was vacated in September, when its long-time Liberal MNA Robert Dutil resigned his seat after he accepted a position as Senior Vice President for Canam-Ponts. Dutil held the seat from 1984 to 1994 and again since 2008. He had been a cabinet minister for the Jean Charest government, serving as Minister of Revenue from 2008 to 2010 and Minister of Public Security from 2010 to 2012.

Geography

Beauce-Sud is centred on the city of Saint-Georges in eastern Quebec, south of Quebec City in the Chaudière-Appalaches region. The riding is bounded on the east by the U.S. state of Maine, on the south by Quebec's Eastern Townships, and on the north and west by other ridings in the Chaudière-Appalaches region. The Chaudière River bifurcates the riding, running from south to north, passing through Saint-Georges on the way. Other communities in the riding include Saint-Éphrem-de-Beauce, La Guadeloupe, Saint-Gédéon-de-Beauce, Saint-Côme--Linière and Saint-Prosper.

Demographics

Demographically, the riding is very homogenous. It is overwhelmingly Francophone, with nearly 99% of its inhabitants having that language as their mother tongue and it is overwhelmingly White, with 98% of inhabitants being neither a visible minority nor Aboriginal. In terms of ethnicity, most inhabitants identify as Canadian or French Canadian. The riding is also overwhelmingly Catholic, with 93% of the population being of that faith. The riding is less well off than the province as a whole. The median income is $25,000 (provincial median is $28,000) while the average income is $31,000 (provincial average is $36,000).

History

The political uniqueness of the Beauce region has led it to vote for a number of minor parties in its existence, such as Action liberale nationale in 1935, Bloc populaire canadien in 1944, Ralliement créditiste du Québec in 1970 and 1973 and the Parti national populaire in 1976.

While the Liberals won the seat by a comfortable margin in 2014, previous elections saw more close races between them and the CAQ, and its predecessor, the ADQ. In 2012, Dutil won the riding by just 650 votes over his CAQ opponent and in 2008, he won the riding by just 570 votes over his ADQ opponent, Claude Morin, who had won the seat by a comfortable 9000 vote margin in 2007, when the ADQ had formed the official opposition. 2003 was also a close race, when Liberal Diane Leblanc won the seat by 1300 votes over her ADQ opponent.

List of MNAs:

Beauce (1867-1973)

C.H. Pozer, Liberal (1867-1874)

F.-X. Dulac, Cons. (1874-1878)

Jos. Poirier, Liberal (1878-1881)

J.G.P. Blanchet, Cons. (1881-1892)

Jos. Poirier, Cons. (1892-1897) 2^nd time

H.S. Béland, Liberal (1897-1902)

A. Godbout, Liberal (1902-1921)

J.H. Fortier, Liberal (1921-1929)

J.-É. Fortin, Liberal (1929-1935)

Vital Cliche, A.L.N. (1935-1936)

Raoul Poulin, U.N. (1936)

J.-É. Perron, U.N. (1937-1939)

H.-R. Renault, Liberal (1939-1944)

É. Lacroix, B.P.C. (1944-1945)

G.-O. Poulin, U.N. (1945-1960)

Fabien Poulin, Liberal (1960-1962)

P.-É. Allard, U.N. (1962-1970)

Fabien Roy, R.C.Q. (1970-1973)

Beauce-Sud (1973-present)

Fabien Roy. R.C.Q. (1973-1975); P.N.P (1975-1979) continued

Hermann Mathieu, Liberal (1979-1985)

Rbt. Dutil, Liberal (1985-1994)

P.-E. Quirion, Liberal (1994-1996)

Ms. Diane Leblanc, Liberal (1997-2007)

Claude Morin, A.D.Q. (2007-2008)

Rbt. Dutil, Liberal (2008-2015) 2^nd time

Political geography

In the last few elections, the CAQ/ADQ has been the strongest in the central and northern parts of the riding, while the Liberals have been the strongest in the west. The city of Saint-Georges, which makes up about half of the population of the riding is usually evenly split between the Liberals and their conservative-leaning opponents.

In the 2014 election, Liberal support was the strongest in the more rural parts of the riding, especially in the municipalities in the western part of the district. They broke 60% of the vote in two municipalities in western Beauce-Sud: in Sainte-Colthide-de-Beauce and in Lac-Poulin. CAQ support was concentrated in Saint-Georges and adjacent municipalities. The CAQ barely won the riding's largest city, and likely lost it if you account for the advance votes. The best municipality for the CAQ was Saint-Philibert, an eastern suburb of Saint-Georges, where they won 48% of the election day vote. None of the other parties won any polls in the riding. The PQ's best municipality was Saint-Ludger, located at the southern point of the riding, where they won 13%. Quebec Solidaire's best municipality was Saint-Hilaire-de-Dorset (also in the south of the riding) where they won 8% of the vote.

Federally, most of this riding is located in the electoral district of Beauce, which just re-elected Conservative MP Maxime Bernier last month. The riding is considered the most Conservative in the province, and has gone Conservative since 2006.

2014 results by municipality

Outlook

The Liberals are running Saint-Benoît-Labre native Paul Busque, a managing director at Saint-Georges GM as their candidate. The candidate with the best chance of beating Busque is Tom Redmond, who is running for the CAQ. He is a city councillor in Saint-Georges. The PQ candidate, Renaud Fortier is also a Saint-Georges city councillor. Quebec solidaire is running their 2014 candidate, pharmacist Diane Vincent.

Despite the riding being so homogeneously Francophone, it is far from a nationalist riding. It voted “NO” in both referendums, and the PQ has never won the seat. The PQ has not even finished second here since 1998. In conservative and federalist Beauce, the clear race is between Busque, the Liberal candidate and Redmond, the CAQ candidate. Following the Liberal surge in the federal election, it is quite possible that the Liberals will likely hold on to this seat in the National Assembly.

Fabre

Fabre was vacated in August when its MNA, Liberal Gilles Ouimet stepped down to spend more time with his family. Ouimet was a backbench MP, and had represented the riding since just 2012.

Geography

The riding of Fabre covers the western 1/6th of the city of Laval, a large suburb north of Montreal. Laval consists of the entirety of the Île Jésus and surrounding islands, and was the product of an amalgamation of a number of smaller communities in 1965. Due to Laval's large geographical size, many of these communities still retain much of their character despite rapid suburbanization of the island. Fabre contains the former municipalities of Laval-Ouest, Laval-sur-le-Lac and Îles Laval, plus large parts of Fabreville and Sainte-Dorothée plus a small part of Chomedey (the Saint-Martin area).

Most of the population lives on either the south or the north coasts of the riding. A majority of the population lives on the south coast, which is dominated by Sainte-Dorothée. The north coast is made up of the communities of Laval-Ouest and Fabreville. The area between the two coasts is primarily made up of farm land, woods and golf courses.

Demographics

Over two-thirds of the population in Fabre are Francophones, with 69% of the population having French as their first language. 10% of the population are Anglophones, while 29% of the riding are Allophones (mother tongue is neither English nor French). The main non-official languages spoken in the riding are Arabic and Greek. 79% of the riding is White, with most of the rest being Arab (6%), Black (4%), South Asian (2%), Southeast Asian (2%) and Latin American (2%). A majority of the population identifies as either French or Canadian. There are also large groups of people identifying as either Irish, Greek or Italian. 60% of the riding is Catholic, while 11% is Christian Orthodox. The main non-Christian faith is Islam, with 12% being Muslim. 11% of the riding has no religious affiliation. Fabre is slightly wealthier than the province as a whole. The median income is $34,000 while the average income is $43,000.

History

Thanks to its large Allophone population, Fabre has usually voted Liberal in its history. In PQ held the riding in the early 1980s and for nearly a decade between 1994 and 2003. Since then, the Liberals have held the seat, usually defeating the Péquistes by three or four thousand votes. In 2007, the ADQ came close to winning the riding, with the Liberals only winning the seat by 1200 votes. In the 1995 sovereignty referendum, the “Yes” side did win, though it was close (51%-49%).

While the riding of Fabre has existed since 1966, it has only covered the western end of Laval since 1981. Before then, the region was part of the riding of Laval.

List of MNAs:

Laval (1867-1981)

J.-H. Bellerose, Cons. (1867-1875)

L.-O. Loranger, Cons. (1875-1882)

P.-É. Leblanc, Cons. (1882-1883)

Amédée Gaboury, Liberal (1883-1884)

P.-É. Leblanc, Cons. (1884-1908) 2^nd time

J.W. Levesque, Liberal (1908-1919)

J.-O. Renaud, Cons. (1919-1931)

Jos. Filion, Liberal (1931-1935)

F.-J. Leduc, Cons. (1935-1936); U.N. (1936-1939); Liberal (1939-1948)
Omer Barrière, U.N. (1948-1956)

L. Pouliot, U.N. (1956-1960)

J.-N. Lavoie, Liberal (1960-1981)

Fabre (1981-present)

Michel Leduc, P.Q. (1981-1985)

J.-A. Joly, Liberal (1985-1994)

Jos. Facal, P.Q. (1994-2003)

Ms. Michelle Courchesne, Liberal (2003-2012)

Gilles Ouimet, Liberal (2012-2015)

Political geography

Recent elections have revealed a geographic dichotomy in the riding, with the more French Canadian northern part of the riding backing the PQ and the CAQ, with the more diverse southern part of the riding (especially Sainte-Dorothée) strongly backing the Liberals.

This dichotomy was less prevalent in the 2014 election, as the Liberals won every neighbourhood in the riding. However, they were the weakest in Laval-Ouest, where they won just 37% of the vote. The Liberals continued to win big on the south coast of the island, winning over 60% of the vote in Sainte-Dorothéee, Saint-Martin (Chomedey) and Laval-sur-le-Lac. The PQ was strongest in Îles Laval where they won 29% of the vote, while the CAQ was strongest in Fabreville, where they won 25% of the election day vote (ahead of the PQ). Quebec Solidaire was strongest in Laval-Ouest, where they won just 9%. QS did not win any polls.

Federally, most of Fabre is located in the riding of Laval—Les Îles, which just voted Liberal last month. The NDP had won it in 2011, but the Liberals held the riding before that, since 1993.

2014 results by neighbourhood

Outlook

The Liberals are running local businesswoman and president of the Réseau des carrefours jeunesse-emploi du Québec, Monique Sauvé in this seat. The PQ is running Jibril Akaaboune Le François, a civil servant. The CAQ is running teacher Carla El-Ghandour. UQAM student Charles Lemieux is running for Quebec Solidaire.

The PQ has only ever won Fabre when they have received at least 41% of the province-wide vote. Considering the last CROP poll put the PQ at 29% province-wide, it is very unlikely the PQ will win this seat. For the CAQ, they only came close to winning the riding when they won 31% of province-wide vote in 2007 (as the ADQ), so they are unlikely to win it as well. I am very confident the Liberals should easily retain this seat.

René-Lévesque

The riding of René-Lévesque (formerly known as Saguenay) has been vacant since September, when its MNA, Péquiste Marjolain Dufour resigned, citing health reasons. He had represented the riding since 2003.

Geography

René-Lévesque is located in Quebec's Côte-Nord region, northeast of Quebec City. The riding is centred on the city of Baie-Comeau, where close to a majority of the population live. Almost the entire population of the riding lives on the south coast of the riding, along the Saint Lawrence River, running from the Saguenary River in the west to Baie-Trinité in the east. From the Saint Lawrence in the south, the riding extends deep into the sparsely populated Quebec interior northward, until it hits the circular Manicouagan Reservoir, which is about where the northern boundary is. In addition to Baie-Comeau, the riding's other main communities include Chute-aux-Outardes, Pessamit (Betsiamites), Forestville, Les Escoumins, Pointe-aux-Outardes, Pointe-Lebel, Ragueneau and Sacré-Coeur.

Demographics

Most of the riding is Francophone, with 94% having French as their first language. Most of the rest (5%) speaks Innu as their first language. In fact, 10% of population is of First Nation ancestry (the riding is home to two reserves, Pessamit and Essipit). Outside of this mostly Innu population, the riding is fairly homogenous. Almost the entirety of the rest of the riding is is White, most of whom are of French Canadian ancestry. 94% of the riding is Catholic, with most of the remainder belonging to no religion. In terms of income, the riding closely matches the province-wide numbers, with the median income being at $28,000 and the average at $36,000.

History

For much of its history, René-Lévesque has been a PQ stronghold. It was one of the only ridings to vote PQ in 1970, the first election the party ran in. The PQ held the seat until losing it in a by-election in 1983. The Liberals managed to keep the seat, winning close elections in 1985 and 1989, before losing it in 1994. The PQ easily won the seat in 1994 and 1998, and in the interim, the riding saw the strongest result for the “Yes” side out of all ridings in the 1995 sovereignty referendum. 73% of voters in the riding had voted to separate from Canada. The ADQ won the seat in a 2002 by-election, which was a surprise victory, as it was only the second seat the party had ever won at that point. However, the ADQ only held it for a year, as the PQ took it back in the 2003 general election. Since then, the PQ has continued to win the seat by comfortable margins, and always receiving between 50 and 60% of the vote. The ADQ and the CAQ have never been able to come close to winning the seat again, not even in 2007 which is the only election where they were elected as the main opposition party. Since 2008, the Liberals have been the second place party in the riding, but far behind the PQ.

List of MNAs:

Chicoutimi-Saguenay (1867-1912)

P.-A. Tremblay, Ind. (1867-1871); Liberal (1871-1874)

M.G. Baby, Cons. (1874-1875)

W.E. Price, Cons. (1875-1880)

J.- É. Beaudet, Cons. (1880-1881)

Élie Saint-Hiliare, Ind. Cons. (1881-1888)

Séverin Dumais, Parti national (Liberal) (1888-1890)

Onésime Côté, Parti national (Liberal) (1890-1892)

Honoré Petit, Cons. (1892-1912)

Charlevoix-Saguenay (1912-1948)

Pierre D'Auteuil, Cons. (1912-1919)

P. Dufour, Liberal (1919-1927)

J.U.E. Rochette, Liberal (1927-1936)

A. Leclerc, U.N. (1936-1939)

J.U.E. Rochette, Liberal (1939-1944) 2^nd time

A. Leclerc, U.N. (1944-1948)

Saguenay (1948-2003)

Pierre Ouellet, U.N. (1948-1960)

Lucien Bélanger, Liberal (1960-1962)

Rodrigue Thibault, Liberal (1962-1963)

P.-W. Maltais, Liberal (1964-1970)

Lucien Lessard, P.Q. (1970-1982)

Ghislain Maltais, Liberal (1983-1994)

G.-Y. Gagnon, P.Q. (1994-2001)

François Corriveau, A.D.Q. (2002-2003)

René Lévesque (2003-present)

Marjolain Dufour, P.Q. (2003-2015)

Political geography

Except for four small areas, the PQ normally wins everything in the riding. The only part of the riding that has consistently voted Liberal in recent elections is the Pessimit Indian Reserve southwest of Baie-Comeau. The Liberals also usually win the tiny Essipit Reserve which is located further up the Saint Lawrence in the southwest of the riding. The Liberals have also twice won at least one poll in Sacré-Coeur (also in the southwest) and in the east end of Baie-Comeau.

In 2014, the PQ won every municipality in the riding, except for the two Indian Reserves. Their strongest municipality was Chute-aux-Outardes, a suburb of Baie-Comeau, where they won 71% of the vote. Their next best area was the vast Rivière-aux-Outardes unorganized territory, which geographically makes up almost the entire riding, except for the southwest and the coast. The Liberals won the two Indian reserves, winning Pessamit with 50% of the vote and Essipit with 38%. Essipit was the strongest community for the CAQ, where they won 27% of the vote, which was still in third place. The best result for Quebec Solidaire was in Tadoussac, where they won 13% of the vote. Neither the CAQ nor the QS won any polls.

Federally this riding is located in the electoral district of Manicouagan, which voted for the Bloc last month after having voted for the NDP in 2011. Prior to 2011, Manicouagan had voted for the Bloc in every election since 1993.

2014 results by municipality

Outlook

The PQ is running the director general of the Société d'aide au développement de la collectivité de la Manicouagan, Martin Ouellet as their candidate in this riding. The Liberals are running Baie-Comeau city councillor Karine Otis to oppose Ouellet. The CAQ candidate is Dave Savard, a philosophy teacher at a local CEGEP, who lost the federal Liberal nomination in Manicouagan. Retired teacher Claire du Sablon will be the Quebec Solidaire candidate.

In its history, this riding has produced two unexpected by-election results, when the Liberals won it in 1983 and when the ADQ won it in 2002. Perhaps another surprise win is in the books, but I do not believe this to be very likely (if it does happen, it will likely be the Liberals). This area just eschewed the Liberal wave in the federal election, so I do not see them backing the Liberals at this point in time. The most sovereigntist riding in the province should still vote PQ.

Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne

Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne has been a vacant seat since August, when its MNA, Liberal Marguerite Blais resigned, following the death of her husband. Blais had served in the cabinet of Jean Charest as Minister of Senior Citizens. She had represented the district since 2007.

Geography

Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne is located in central Montreal, southwest of the Downtown. It consists of all of the Le Sud-Ouest borough and a small part of the Ville-Marie borough. The riding hugs the Lachine Canal, running from Parc Angrignon in the south to around Autoroute 10 in the north. Its northwestern boundary closely follows Autoroute 20, while its southeastern boundary follows the Canal de l'Aqueduc and Autoroute 15. The riding contains a number of historic Montreal neighbourhoods like Griffintown, Little Burgundy, Saint-Henri, Pointe-Saint-Charles, Côte-Saint-Paul and Ville-Émard.

Demographics

The riding is one of the more diverse in the province. A bare majority of the riding (56%) is Francophone, 25% are Allophones and 19% are Anglophones. After French and English, the main native languages in the riding are Spanish, Chinese, Arabic, Italian and Bengali. In terms of race, nearly three quarters (72% )of the riding is White. Due to the riding being home to Montreal's historically Black neighbourhood of Little Burgundy, Blacks are the largest minority group in the riding, making up 7% of the population. There are also large numbers of Chinese, South Asians, Arabs, Latin Americans and Filipinos. After French Canadian, the main ethnic groups in the riding are Irish, Italian, English and Scottish. Catholics make up 53% of the population, while Christians as a whole make up 64%. Islam is the largest non Christian religion, with 8% of the riding being Muslim. The riding also has a high irreligious population at 24%. The riding is poorer than the province as a whole, with the median income being $23,000 and the average income being $34,000.

History

The riding was created in 1994 when the ridings of Saint-Henri (which was made up of Saint-Henri, Côte-Saint-Paul and Ville-Émard) and Sainte-Anne (which was made up of Griffintown, Little Burgundy and Pointe-Saint-Charles, plus part of Verdun) was merged. Both ridings had gone Liberal continuously since 1981, and have also gone Liberal ever since being merged together. Both ridings went PQ in 1976, the only time the riding has ever voted for the PQ.

While the riding hasn't gone PQ since 1976, there have been some close races since. In the riding's first election after it merged in 1994, the Liberals only won the seat by 641 votes over the PQ. The 1995 referendum was also close, with the “No” side winning 53% to 47%. Since then, the Liberals have won the seat in every election by a margin of two to three thousand, except for in 2003, when they won by over 6000 votes and in 2014, when they won by over 11000 votes.

List of MNAs:

<Sainte-Anne>

Montréal-Centre (1867-1890)

E.B. Carter, Cons. (1867-1871)

L.H. Holton, Liberal (1871-1874)

Chas. Alexander, Liberal (1874-1875)

A.W. Ogilvie, Cons. (1875-1878)

H.A. Nelson, Liberal (1878-1881)

G.W. Stephens Sr., Liberal (1881-1886)

Jas. McShane, Liberal (1886-1890)

Montréal Division No. 6 (1890-1912)

Jas. McShane, Liberal (1890-1892) continued

P. Kennedy, Cons. (1892-1895)

J.J.E. Guerin, Liberal (1895-1904)

M.J. Walsh, Liberal (1904-1908)

Denis Tansey, Cons. (1908)

M.J. Walsh, Liberal (1908-1912) 2^nd time

Montréal–Sainte-Anne (1912-1966)

Denis Tansey, Cons. (1912-1919) 2^nd time

B.-A. Conroy, Liberal (1919-1923)

W.J. Hushion, Liberal (1923-1924)

J.H. Dillon, Liberal (1924-1935)

F.L. Connors, Liberal (1935-1942)

Thos. Guerin, Liberal (1942-1948)

F. Hanley, Ind. (1948-1966)

Sainte-Anne (1966-1970)

F. Hanley, Ind. (1966-1970) continued

G.P.G. Springate, Liberal (1970-1976)

J.-M. Lacoste, P.Q. (1976-1981)

M. Polak, Liberal (1981-1989)

Normand Cherry, Liberal (1989-1994)

<Saint-Henri>

Hochelaga (1867-1912)

Louis Beaubien, Cons. (1867-1886)

J.-O. Villeneuve, Cons. (1886-1887)

Chas. Champagne, Liberal (1888-1890)

J.-O. Villeneuve, Cons. (1890-1897)

D.-J. Décaire, Liberal (1897-1904)

J.-L. Décaire, Liberal (1904-1912)

Montréal-Hochelaga (1912-1923)

Séverin Letourneau, Liberal (1912-1919)

J.-H. Bédard, Liberal (1919-1923)

Montréal–Saint-Henri (1923-1966)

J.A. Bray, Cons (1923-1927)

A. Leduc, Liberal (1927-1931)

J.-M. Gabias, Liberal (1931-1935)

W.-E. Laurailt, A.L.N. (1935-1936)

René Labelle, U.N. (1936-1939)

Émile Boucher, Liberal (1939-1944)

J.-H. Delisle, U.N. (1944-1952)

P. Lalonde, Liberal (1952-1966)

Saint-Henri (1966-1994)

C. Martellani, U.N. (1966-1970)

Gérard Shanks, Liberal (1970-1976)

Jacques Couture, P.Q. (1976-1981)

Roma Hains, Liberal (1981-1989)

Ms. Nicole Loiselle, Liberal (1989-1994)

Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne (1994-present)

Ms. Nicole Loiselle, Liberal (1994-2007) continued

Ms. Marguerite Blais, Liberal (2007-2015)

Political geography

In both 2008 and 2012, the Liberals have been able to win the seat by winning large margins in the more diverse north end of the riding, specifically in Little Burgundy and Griffintown. The rest of the riding is more of a mix between the PQ and the Liberals, with the PQ being the strongest in Saint-Henri, Côte-Saint-Paul and Ville-Émard.

In 2014, the large margin in which the Liberals won the seat meant that they had swept nearly every poll in the riding, including winning all the polls in Saint-Henri. The PQ was left with a handful of polls in the south, in Côte-Saint-Paul and Ville-Émard. The Liberals were especially strong in Little Burgundy, where they won 74% of the vote. Their next best neighbourhood was next-door Griffintown where they won 65% of the vote. The PQ's best neighbourhood was Côte-Saint-Paul, where they won 29% of the vote. Côte-Saint-Paul was also the best neighbourhood for the CAQ, winning 15% of the vote there. And Quebec Solidaire won 16% of the vote in Saint-Henri (finishing ahead of the CAQ), which was their best neighbourhood. Neither the QS or the CAQ won any polls.

2014 results by neighbourhood

Outlook

The Liberal candidate here is Dominique Anglade, who is the former president of the CAQ. She announced in September that she had left the party, saying it no longer represented her views. Anglade had previously run for the CAQ. in Fabre in 2012. Anglade is an engineer by training and the daughter of Haitian immigrants. Running against Anglade for the PQ is health director Gabrielle Lemieux. The CAQ is running Dawson College student Louis-Philippe Boulanger and Quebec Solidaire is running lawyer Marie-Eve Rancourt.

Considering the PQ hasn't won in this riding since 1976, it is unlikely they will do so in this by-election. I expect the Liberals to easily retain the seat.

Conclusion

Whenever we have a day with a lot of by-elections, there is always talk about “wins” and “losses” for each party. For the Liberals, they need to retain their three seats for this to be a “win”. A loss for them would be losing Beauce-Sud to the CAQ, even if they retain their other two seats. For the PQ, they are unlikely to gain any seats tonight, so they need to keep their one riding, and make vote share gains in the other three ridings for this to be a win for them. A close result (or a loss) in René-Lévesque would mean a very bad night for the PQ. For the CAQ, winning Beauce-Sud would mean a huge night for them, especially considering how terrible the last by-election night was (when they lost Chauveau to the Liberals in June). A loss for them would be not even being competitive there. And finally for Quebec Solidaire, they have nothing to really gain (and nothing to lose) in these by-elections. A win for them would be just increasing their vote share. Not doing so would be a big lose for them, considering their recent poll numbers.

We'll find out the winners and losers when the polls close at 8pm.