2017 Quebec municipal elections today

Municipal elections are being held across the province of Quebec's 1,110 municipalities today. Voters will elect mayors, and municipal councillors and in some municipalities, borough mayors and borough councillors as well. Additionally, 16 of Quebec's 87 regional county municipalities are having direct elections for their prefect (the leader of the county council). In many of Quebec's municipalities- including 12 of its 13 largest cities, local political parties will be contesting for seats on their respective councils. Elections in those cities often focus on parties trying get a majority of seats on their councils.

Individual parties in Quebec municipalities are often short lived operations, and often are groups pledging support behind one particular mayoral candidate. This can easily be seen in their names, such as “Équipe Denis Coderre pour Montréal” (Team Denis Coderre for Montreal). In fact, most parties have “Équipe so-and-so” as part of their names (in this post, I usually drop these distinctions for the sake brevity, but some party names are just “Équipe so-and-so”, so I can't always avoid the matter). Anyway, when parties are unsuccessful they will often disband as soon as the election is over, and new ones will be created for the next. Municipal parties can sometimes be ideological, but are often just supporters of a particular mayoral candidate. None have official ties to federal or provincial parties, but many often draw their support from the same voters.

Montreal

Most eyes will be on the mayoral and council race in Quebec's largest city of Montreal, which looks to have an exciting race, if polls are to be believed.

In the 2013 election, former federal Liberal cabinet minister Denis Coderre was elected mayor of the city, winning just 32% of the vote, in a four way race. Coderred defeated future federal Liberal cabinet minister Mélanie Joly (who won 26.5% of the vote), city councillor Richard Bergeron (25.5%) and economist Marcel Côté (12.8%). Coderre's party, the Équipe Denis Coderre pour Montréal

(Team Denis Coderre for Montreal) won a plurality of seats on council, 26 of 65, seven short of a majority. Even though he finished in third place on the mayoral ballot, Bergeron's party, Projet Montréal (Project Montreal) became the main opposition party on council, winning 20 seats. Côté's party, Coalition Montréal won six seats, and Joly's Vraie changement pour Montréal (True Change for Montreal) won just four seats. Local borough parties and independents won the remaining eight seats. The 2013 election marked the beginning of a new era in Montreal civic politics. From 2002 to 2012 Montreal had been led by Gérald Tremblay, who had to resign following being implicated in the Charbonneau Commission. With his resignation, Tremblay and his centrist Union Montreal party dissolved, making way for Coderre and his new centrist party's election victory. 

 

2013 mayoral election results by borough

Since the 2013 election, a series of defections to Coderre's party would result in his party forming a majority on council earlier this year. Coderre's party now has 36 seats going into today's election. The opposition Projet Montréal has 19 seats, but has since firmly become Montreal's main opposition party. The other parties have dissolved into small rumps to the point that Vrai changement is not even running a mayoral candidate and Coalition Montréal's mayoral candidate dropped out of the campaign and endorsed Projet Montréal's mayoral candidate, Valérie Plante.

Usually incumbent mayors are re-elected in a cakewalk in their sophomore elections, but with Quebec's unique municipal party system means that this is not always the case. Coderre is facing a stiff challenge from the very formidable Valérie Plante, who has been a city councillor since 2013 and was elected leader of the left-wing Projet Montréal in 2015. She was elected following the departure of the party's founder, Richard Bergeron who left the party and would later join Coderre's party. Throughout the beginning of the campaign, Coderre had a decent lead over Plante in polls, but she has caught up to him, and now the race is neck-and-neck. CROP's last poll, released October 30 gave Plante a two point lead (39% to 37%) over Coderre, with 17% undecided.

One reason for Coderre's polling troubles has been that he is seen as being arrogant, corrupt, authoritarian and divisive, perhaps a throw back to the day's of Montreal's most notorious mayor, Jean Drapeau. To fight back, Coderre has attacked Projet Montréal's financial plan, pie-in-the-sky like promises and Plante's lack of experience.

Map of Montreal's city council districts used in 2013. The 2017 map saw little change.

In total, Montreal City Council is made up of 65 members, which includes a mayor, elected city wide, 18 borough mayors elected from 18 of the 19 boroughs (Ville-Marie has no borough mayor) and 46 councillors elected from 46 districts across the city. In addition, Montreal voters will be electing 38 separate borough councillor positions. These separate borough councillors are not members of city council, but often represent the same parties. Some boroughs have their city councillors as also borough councillors, and therefore do not have separate borough councillors. Candidates for mayor of the city often have a colistier (a “running mate”) who run for council in their place. If a mayoral candidate wins, then the colistier is elected to council (providing that the colistier also wins their seat); if they lose, then the mayoral candidate can still sit on council, as long as their colistier won their seat.

In 2013, Coderre's main base of support came from the more suburban parts of the city, especially the north end, an area he represented as Member of Parliament. Joly's personal support came from the urban south end of the city, an area of the city where she managed to win five boroughs, but where her party had won just one actual council seat (and not even her own, where her colistier lost). Bergeron and his party did well in the east end of the city, especially in the notoriously left wing Pleateau Borough. The 2017 election thus begins with the battle lines drawn, and the two main parties will have to fight over the south and central parts of the city where Joly did well. In 2013, Projet Montréal won many of the council seats in this area, but they will need to win almost all of them to get at least a plurality on city council.

Quebec City

Quebec's provincial capital has been led by mayor Régis Labeaume since a mayoral by-election was held in 2007 following the death of the previous mayor, Andrée Boucher. Labeaume is extremely popular, and polls show that he is expected to win once again. His party, the conservative Équipe Labeaume (Team Labeaume) won all but three seats in the 2013 municipal election. Labeaume himself won 74% of the mayoral vote, and his party won 65% of the council vote.

2013 council results by district

In 2013, Labeaume's party was challenged by the upstart Démocratie Québec (Democracy Quebec), a progressive leaning party, which naturally did not do very well in the conservative city. Labeaume's party won 19 of the council seats, while Démocratie Québec won the remaining three, all in the more left-leaning core of the city. 

 

Quebec City's council districts to be used this election

For this election, there will be three new parties contesting for seats on Quebec City's council. The main competition for opposition status will come from Québec 21 Équipe JF Gosselin, which is the party of Jean-François Gosselin, a former ADQ Member of Quebec's National Assembly. Gosselin's last foray into politics was running in the 2012 provincial election for the Liberals. Gosselin will be running for mayor against Labeaume and polls put him in second place, ahead of Démocratie Québec's mayoral candidate, Anne Guérette, who is currently a city councillor. It will be interesting to see if Gosselin's party can win any council seats, as it is likely Démocratie Québec will still win some of the more urban districts, while Gosselin's support could be more concentrated in the suburbs where Labeaume will still do well.

Laval

Laval's council is currently led by former police officer (and former PQ candidate) Marc Demers and his left-of-centre Mouvement lavallois (Laval Movement). Demers and his party were first elected in the 2013 election, replacing the previous Parti PRO des Lavallois regime, which was also dissolved following the Charbonneau inquiry. Laval's mayor had been Gilles Vaillancourt who resigned in 2012, and would later plead guilty of corruption and fraud and sent to prison. The 2013 election was thus a watershed election for Laval, with only three incumbents running for re-election. Mouvement lavallois won the election, winning 18 of the city's 22 seats. The only other party to win seats was the centrist Action Laval, which won two seats. Action Laval's mayoral candidate was former Liberal MNA Jean-Claude Gobé, who lost to Demers 44% to 24%.

Demers and Gobé will once again duke it out for Laval's top job. There are five other candidates running for mayor, including two sitting city councillors, Michel Trottier and Alain Lecompte. Michel Trottier was elected in 2013 as an independent, but has formed a new party called Parti Laval (Laval Party), which includes two incumbent councillors running for re-election. Lecompte was elected in 2013 as a member of Mouvement lavallois, but has also formed a new party, the Alliance des conseillers autonomes (Alliance of independent councillors). There is one other party running in Laval and that is of Avenir Laval (Future Laval), led by Sonia Baudelot.

Laval's city council districts used in 2013. The 2017 map saw little change.

Gatineau

The 2013 election in Gatineau saw a surprise victory for Maxime Pedneaud-Jobin, who defeated incumbent mayor Marc Bureau 53% to 36%. The race was between two centre-left candidates, with Pedneaud-Jobin winning all but one district. Bureau managed to win the city's downtown Hull-Wright District, while Pedneaud-Jobin won everywhere else. Pedneaud-Jobin is the leader of Gatineau's first and only political party, Action Gatineau. While he won the mayoral race in a landslide, his council slate fared less well, winning just five seats. Independents won the remaining 14 seats on council.

For this year's election, Pedneaud-Jobin will be challenged by two of those indpendent city councillors, Denis Tassé and Sylvie Goneau. There was one poll released by Segma Research which showed Pedneaud-Jobin easily defeating Tassé and Goneau, with 53% to Tassé's 24% and Goneau's 14% with 21% undecided. It should be noted though that Segma botched the 2013 race, showing Bureau defeating Pedneaud-Jobin 51%-34%.

Gatineau's city council districts used in 2013. The 2017 map saw little change.

Four incumbent councillors will be running for re-election for Action Gatineau (excluding Pedneaud-Jobin), while eight independent councillors are running for re-election.

Longueuil

Longueuil will see a changing of the guard in this election, as incumbent mayor and former BQ Member of Parliament Caroline St-Hilaire is not running for re-election. Her party, Action Longueuil which won all but two council seats in 2013 is still in existence though, and is being led by city councillor Sylvie Parent. Running against Parent is another city councillor, Josée Latendresse who was elected in a by-election in 2016 for Action Longueuil, but left the party to sit as an independent. She has formed a new party called Longueuil citoyen (Longueuil Citizen). The third mayoral candidate is former NDP Member of Parliament Sadia Groguhé, who leads the new Option Longueuil party. 

 

Many incumbent city councillors left Action Longueuil and will be running for Longueuil citoyen. Seven incumbents will be running for Longueuil citoyen, while only four are running again for Action Longueuil. 

Longueuil's city council districts

 

Sherbrooke

Sherbrooke's council has been led by mayor Bernard Sévigny since 2009 and he will once again be running for re-election. In 2013, he was easily re-elected with 73% of the vote. Sévigny leads the centre-right Renouveau sherbrookois (Sherbrooke Renewal), which was the only major party in the 2013 election. Even so, his party only won 10 of the 20 seats on council, with the remaining 10 going to independents.

This time there will be a more competitive party running against Renouveau sherbrookois. That is of Sherbrooke citoyen (Sherbrooke Citizen), led by former Quebec solidaire candidate Hélène Pigot. They face an uphill challenge as no incumbents will be running for them. In addition, there are three independent candidates running for mayor. For council, there are six incumbents running for Renouveau sherbrookois and seven independent incumbents running for re-election.

Sherbrooke's new electoral map

Since the last election, Sherbrooke's city council structure will be re-structured. City council will be reduced from 20 to 15 seats (14 districts plus the mayor). Additionally, the city will go from having six boroughs to just four, and will be numbered instead of named. The three-seat Lennoxville Borough Council (now called Borough 3) will be retained, but the Brompton Borough Council has been abolished, as that Borough was merged with the neighbouring Rock Forest—Saint-Élie—Deauville Borough.

Saguenay

Jean Tremblay, who has been mayor of Saguenay since the city's amalgamation in 2002, is finally stepping down. There are four candidates running to replace him, the best known is former Conservative cabinet minister Jean-Pierre Blackburn who is running as an independent. There are two municipal parties running as well and are both running mayoral candidates. The older of the two parties is Équipe du renouveau démocratique (Democratic Renewal Team), which ran in the last election and won two seats. One of those seats was won by Josée Néron who is the party's mayoral candidate. The second party in the city is Parti des citoyens de Saguenay (Party of Saguenay Citizens), which was formed by Mayor Tremblay after the last election. Their mayoral candidate is Dominic Gagnon. Seven councillors who were elected as incumbents in 2013 joined this party and are running for re-election. Five independent councillors are running for re-election. Blackburn was originally going to run for this party, but had a falling out. A fourth candidate running is independent Arthur Gobeil, an accountant. Polling suggests Néron has a bit of a lead over Blackburn with Gagnon in a distant fourth, perhaps due to Blackburn's candidacy. Saguenay City Council has shrunk in size from 20 to 16 seats.

Saguenay's new electoral map

Lévis

Mayor Gilles Lehouillier of Lévis Force 10 is running for re-election against André Voyer who was a council candidate for the opposition Renouveau Lévis (Renewal Lévis) in 2013, but is running as an independent this time. Renouveau Lévis still exists, but is only running four candidates for council and are not running a mayoral candidate. Lévis Force 10 have already won 11 seats on council, as in 11 districts their candidates were the only ones to register. Lévis Force 10 did quite well in 2013 winning all but one seat on council, with an independent candidate winning the remaining seat.

Lévis' city council districts

Trois-Rivières

Trois-Rivières is the largest city in the province with no political parties. There was a fringe party that ran in 2013, but are not running any candidates this time. The city is led by mayor Yves Lévesque, who has been mayor of the city since amalgamation in 2002. The centre-right mayor was re-elected in 2013 over city councillor Sylvie Tardif with 49% of the vote to her 31%. This election, Lévesque is being challenged by city councillor Jean-François Aubin and André Bertrand. Trois-Rivières City council reduced in size from 17 to 15 seats. 

Trois-Rivières city council districts

Terrebonne

Long-time mayor and former Tory MP Jean-Marc Robitaille resigned in 2016 following corruption allegations in the fallout of the Charbonneau Commission. He was replaced as mayor by city councillor Stéphane Berthe. Robitaille's party (Équipe Robitaille) won all but two seats in the 2013 elections, but is no longer an active party for obvious reasons. 

 

Berthe is running for mayor under the new banner of Générations Terrebonne (Generations Terrebonne). Two incumbent city councillors will be running for his party, while the remaining incumbents will be running for Alliance démocratique Terrebonne (Terrebonne Democratic Alliance) whose mayoral candidate is Marc-André Plante. A third party was created called Nouvel Élan Terrebonne (New Spirit Terrebonne) and are also running a full slate of candidates, including Valérie Quevillon who is running for mayor. 

Terrebonne's city council districts

 

Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu

In 2013, the race in Saint-Jean was a free-for-all after the departure of mayor Gilles Dolbec. Michel Fecteau was elected mayor of the city with just 22% of the vote, narrowly ahead of former BQ Member of Parliament Claude Bachand at 20%. Two other candidates were right behind Fecteau and Bachand: Alain Laplante won 19% of the vote, and Stéphane Legrand won 18%. The top three candidates in that election will once again face-off for the mayoralty of the city this time.

The council vote in 2013 was split between three parties. Fecteau's party (Parti Fecteau) won six seats on the 13 seat council; Despite finishing fourth in the mayoral election, Legrand's party (Vision Legrand) became the opposition with five seats. Équipe Alain Laplante won just one seat, while an Independent won the remaining seat. Bachand's party, Avec Bachand (With Bachand) was left off of council.

Saint-Jean's city council districts

Since 2013, Vision Legrand disbanded, with some of its councillors becoming independents and some joining Parti Fecteau. The one independent on council also joined Parti Fecteau. However, some Parti Fecteau councillors left that party. All in all, five incumbent councillors are running for Parti Fecteau, three are running for Équipe Alain Laplante and three are running as independents.

Brossard

Brossard has been led by mayor Paul Leduc from 1990 to 2001 and since 2009. He was re-elected in 2013 with 65% of the vote against his opponent, Louis Lemoine who won 35%. Leduc's party, Priority Brossard won all but two seats on council, while Lemoine's party, Brossard Revival winning the remaining two.

Leduc will once again be running for re-election. Brossard Revival's mayoral candidate is Jean-Marc Pelletier. In addition to those two, this year's mayoral race has expanded thanks to the addition of a new party, Brossard Ensemble (Brossard Together), led by former Priority Brossard councillor Doreen Assaad. She is joined on the ballot by former NDP Member of Parliament Hoang Mai who is running as an independent.

Brossard's city council districts

Five incumbent councillors will be running for re-election for Priority Brossard, two are running for Brossard Ensemble (both former members of Priority Brossard), while one councillor is running for re-election for Brossard Revival.

Repentigny

Long-time Repentigny mayor Chantal Deschamps (of Équipe Deschamps) is running for re-election. She will be challenged by councillor Bruno Villeneuve of Parti démocratique de Repentigny-Le Gardeur (Democratic Party of Repentigny-Le Gardeur). Last election, Deschamps won the mayoralty with 62% of the vote against her Parti démocratique opponent, Jean Langlois who won 38%. Deschamps' party won 12 of the 13 seats on council. Only Villeneuve was able to win a seat for Parti démocratique. With Villeneuve running for mayor, Parti démocratique have no incumbents running for re-election in any of the district seats. All incumbent councillors will be running for Équipe Deschamps.

 

Repentigny's city council districts

Other major cities:

- Drummondville: Incumbent mayor Alexandre Cusson has been re-elected with no opposition. He was first elected in 2013. There are no parties in Drummondville.

- Saint-Jérôme: Incumbent mayor Stéphane Maher has also been re-elected with no opposition. He too was first elected in 2013. His party, Vision Saint-Jérôme is the only one contesting the election, and already have six councillors elected without opposition.

- Granby: Incumbent mayor Pascal Bonin is running for re-election against Yves Bélanger and Carl Bouvier. Bonin was first elected in 2013, when he defeated then-mayor Richard Goulet. There are no parties in Granby.

- Blainville: Blainville will see a re-match of the 2013 mayoral race between mayor Richard Perreault of Vrai Blainville (True Blainville) and Florent Gravel of Mouvement Blainville (Blainville Movement). Vrai Bainville won every seat on council in 2013.

- Saint-Hyacinthe: Incumbent mayor Claude Corbeil faces a challenge from Chantal Goulet. Corbeil was first elected in 2013. There are no parties in Saint-Hyacinthe.

- Mirabel: Incumbent mayor Jean Bouchard of Action Mirbael is challenged by two candidates; city councillor Pierre-Paul Meloche of Mouvement citoyen Mirabel (Mirabel Citizen Movement), an Action Mirabel defector, and René Plouffe who leads Renouveau Mirabel (Mirabel Renewal), who is only running one other council candidate. In 2013, Action Mirabel was the only party in the municipality, winning six of the nine seats. In this election, Action Mirabel are running five councillors for re-election, while Mouvement citoyen Mirabel has one incumbent councillor running.

- Shawinigan: Incumbent mayor Michel Angers is running for re-election against François Bonenfant and Judeline Corriveau. Angers has been mayor since 2009. There are no parties in Shawinigan.

- Dollard-Des Ormeaux: Incumbent mayor Edward Janiszewski is finally facing a credible opposition since being acclaimed to office in 2013. He is challenged by incumbent councillor Alex Bottausci and two other candidates. Janiszewski was first elected in 2005, and has never faced stiff competition for the job in his career. There are no parties in the city.

- Rimouski: Rimouski got a new mayor last year when its mayor, Éric Forest was appointed to the Senate. Forest was replaced by city councillor Marc Parent, who will be running to keep his job. He will be running against city councillor Pierre Chassé and two other candidates. There are no parties in Rimouski.

- Châteauguay: Châteauguay mayor Nathalie Simon of the Citizens' Action party is being challenged by Vision Châteauguay candidate Pierre-Paul Routhier and independent councillor Steve Brisebois. Simon has been mayor of the city since 2009. In 2013, the Citizens' Action party was the only party running, and won six of the nine seats on council. The remaining three independents formed the new Vision Châteauguay party, and with one floor-crosser have four city councillors running for re-election against just three for Citizens' Action.

- Mascouche: Incumbent mayor Guillaume Tremblay of Vision Démocratique de Mascouche (Democratic Vision of Mascouche) is being challenged by two independent candidates, François Collin and Line Lavallée. Tremblay was first elected in 2013, when his party won every seat on council defeating Équipe Luc Thériault. Now, Vision Démocratique is the only party in the city, and have already won six seats on council due to acclamations.

- Victoriaville: Former BQ Member of Parliament André Bellavance was easily elected in a rare mayoral by-election in 2016. He will be running for re-election against Jean Roy. There are no parties in Victoraville.

- Saint-Eustache: Incumbent mayor Pierre Charron of Option Saint-Eustache is being challenged by city councillor Julie Desmarais or Renouveau Saint-Eustache (Renewal Saint-Eustache) and Robert St-Germain of Accès Saint-Eustache (Access Saint-Eustache). Charron has been mayor since 2005, and was easily elected in 2013 when his party was the only one in town. His party won all but two seats on council. One of those two his party did win was won by Desmarais, who ran as an independent. All but one incumbent councillor running for re-election is running for Option Saint-Eustache, with the remaining councillor running as an independent.

- Rouyn-Noranda: Incumbent mayor Mario Provencher is running for re-election, and will be challenged by four other candidates. Provencher was first elected in 2009, and was easily re-elected in 2013 with 80% of the vote. This time he faces stiff opposition from city councillors Diane Dallaire and Philippe Marquis. There are no parties in Rouyn-Noranda, though Provencher had his own party in 2013 where he was the only candidate.

- Boucherville: Incumbent mayor Jean Martel is running for re-election against Monique Reeves. Martel has been mayor of the city since 2009, and leads the only party in the city, Option Citoyens Citoyennes (Citizens Option). In 2013, his party won every seat on city council. In this election, his party has already won two seats due to acclamation. Every incumbent running for re-election, save one is running for his party, while one incumbent is running as an independent.

- Sallaberry-de-Valleyfield: Long-time mayor Denis Lapointe is not running for re-election, leaving this race open. City councillor François Labossière is running against Joanne Brunet and Miguel Lemieux. There are no parties in Valleyfield.

- Vaudreuil-Dorion: Mayor Guy Pilon of Parti de l'Action de Vaudreuil-Dorion (Vaudreuil-Dorion Action Party) is running for re-election against Pierre Séguin, leader of “Team we are”. In 2013 Parti de l'Action was the only party running, and won all but one seat on council.

Prefectural races

Among the 16 races for regional county municipality (RCM) prefects, the two largest RCMs are Montcalm and Les Pays d'en Haut, both of which are located north of Montreal. In Les Pays d'en Haut, Wentworth-Nord mayor André Genest takes on Martin Nadon, Marie-Claire Vachon and Guy Vandenhove for the top job. In Montcalm, Saint-Calixte mayor Louis-Charles Thouin has been acclaimed as prefect.

Polls close across the province at 8pm.

Louis-Hébert by-election today

Voters in the Quebec riding of Louis-Hébert head to the polls today to elect a new member of the Quebec National Assembly. The riding was vacated in April when its MNA, Liberal Sam Hamad resigned. He had held the seat since 2003, taking the riding back from the separatist PQ in 2003.

Louis-Hébert is located in the western suburbs of Quebec City, taking in part of the former city of Sainte-Foy (specifically the districts of L'Aéroport and Pointe-de-Sainte Foy) and the former city of Cap-Rouge, plus the municipality of Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures.

While the riding has existed since 1966, its boundaries before the 2001 redistribution covered less than half of its current territory, though the riding has been based in the western suburbs of the city since its creation. Before the 2001 redistribution, much of the riding was located in the riding of La Peltrie, which is now northwest of the city. Its new boundaries have proved to be good for the Liberal Party, as they won the seat in every election since. But by no means is it safe; Hamad won the seat in the 2007 election by fewer than 900 votes (over the ADQ), and had another close race in 2012, beating the CAQ candidate by a little over 2000 votes.

The riding is overwhelmingly Francophone (97%), with a small percentage (2%) being Anglophone. It is also overwhelmingly White (97%), mostly of French Canadian stock, but it has a non-negligible population of Irish ancestry. Most of the population is Catholic (86%) while 11% have no religion. The riding is significantly more wealthy than the province as a whole. The median income is $50,000 (compared to the provincial median of $33,000). 

2014 results by neighbourhood

Geographically, the main political split in the riding is between the rural area (such as Saint-Augustin) which tends to vote for right-of-centre parties and the urban part of the riding (Cap-Foy and Pointe-de-Sainte-Foy) which tends to vote the Liberals. This split was less obvious in 2014 with Hamad winning the seat by 23 points. In fact on election day, the Liberals won a slightly higher share of the vote in Saint-Augustin than in the Quebec City part of the riding. The right-of-centre CAQ also did better in Saint-Augustin, winning 36% of the election day votes there compared to 30% in Quebec City. Both left-of-centre parties, the PQ and Quebec solidaire did better in Quebec City, but are generally not a good fit for this wealthy riding.

Based on current polling, the race could see a close match between the Liberals and the CAQ. The Liberals are running Hamad's former assistant Ihsanne El Ghernati, who was chosen quickly after the previous candidate had to drop out, following complaints from his former employees. The CAQ is running Genevieve Guilbeaut, the former spokesperson for Quebec's coroner's office. She also was chosen quickly after their candidate dropped out after a controversy as well. As for the other parties, the PQ is running biologist Norman Beauregard and Quebec solidaire is running lawyer Guillaume Boivin. It will be the first test for the new NDP provincial wing which just re-registered its party status after a 23 year hiatus. They are running former MP Denis Blanchette who held the federal riding of Louis-Hébert from 2011 to 2015. The Greens are running their leader, Alex Tyrrell.

Polls close at 8pm.

Quebec by-elections today

Provincial by-elections will be held in two Quebec electoral districts today to replace two Quebec City-area Members of the National Assembly (MNA). The ridings being vacated are Chauveau, north of Quebec City and Jean-Talon, located in the city's west end. Chauveau was vacated in April when its MNA, Gerard Deltell of the centre-right Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) announced he would be running for the federal Conservatives in this fall's federal election. Jean-Talon was vacated when its MNA, Liberal Yves Bolduc resigned in February following controversy when he, in his capacity as the province's education minister defended a policy which allowed a school administrator in the city to strip search a 15 year old student.

While neither riding is held by the sovereigntist Parti Quebecois (PQ), it will be the first test for that party since its election of media mogul Pierre-Karl Peladeau as leader in May. Despite some considering his candidacy and media presence in the last provincial election as having cost the party the election, the PQ has seen a boost in the polls since Peladeau's election as leader. The PQ is now up eight or nine points since last year's general election, while the Liberals are down about 10 points, and the CAQ is down about three points. Both Chauveau and Jean-Talon are safe ridings for their respective parties, but a two-party Liberal to PQ swing of 10 points in Jean-Talon might put that riding into play.

Chauveau

Geography

Like many provincial ridings in Quebec, Chauveau is not named for its geography, rather it is named for a person, Pierre-Joseph-Olivier Chauveau, the first Premier of Quebec who also represented the region during his time in office. Applying a single geographic name to this riding would be challenging, as it covers a number of different communities north of Quebec City.

Most of the population of the riding lives in a number of suburban communities within the city limits of Quebec City. It contains most of the borough of La Haute-Saint-Charles (including the neighbourhoods of Loretteville, Saint-Emile and Lac-Saint-Charles) as well as the neighbourhood of Note-Dame-des-Laurentides in the borough of Charlesbourg. The riding also contains the Wendake Indian Reserve, which is completely surrounded by La Haute-Saint-Charles borough. From the Quebec City suburbs in the south, the riding runs northwest into the Quebec hinterland, containing the municipalities of Lac-Beauport, Lac-Delage, Stoneham-et-Tewkesbury and the uninhabited Lac-Croche unorganized area, which makes up the northern two-thirds of the riding's geographic territory.

Demographics

Chauveau is overwhelmingly Francophone, with 98.2% of its inhabitants having French as their mother tongue. Just 1.5% of the riding is Anglophone. The riding is also overwhelmingly White, with 97% of the riding having no visible minority nor are Aboriginal. 1.5% of the riding is Aboriginal, the second largest racial group in the riding. Ethnically, most of the riding is of French Canadian stock, while there are a handful of people of Irish descent. 87% of the riding is Catholic, while most of the rest of the population (10%) has no religion. The riding is more wealthy than the provincial average; the median income is $35,000 (opposed to the provincial median of $28,000) while the average income is $39,000 (compared to the provincial average of $36,000).

History

Being located in suburban Quebec City, Chauveau is much more conservative leaning than the rest of the province. Right of centre parties have held the riding continuously since 2007. While the riding supported the Yes side in the 1995 referendum by nine points, the riding's conservative leanings have allowed the Liberals to win here before the emergence of more right leaning parties in the last decade. Since 2007 though, it has been a safe ADQ/CAQ seat. The riding was one of only seven to vote for the ADQ in the 2008 provincial election.

MNAs:

Quebec-Comte (1867-1966)

1) P.-J.-O. Chauveau, Cons. (1867-1873)

2) Pierre Garneau, Cons. (1873-1878)

3) D.A. Ross, Liberal (1878-1881)

*) Pierre Garneau, Cons. (1881-1886), 2^nd time

4) T.C. Casgrain, Cons. (1886-1890)

5) Chas. Fitzpatric, Liberal (1890-1896)

6) Nemese Garneau, Liberal (1897-1901)

7) C.F. Delage, Liberal (1901-1916)

8) Aurele Leclerc, Liberal (1916-1923)

9) Ludger Bastien, Cons. (1924-1927)

10) J.-E. Bedard, Liberal (1927-1935)

11) F. Byrne, Liberal (1935-1936)

12) Adolphe Marcoux, U.N. (1936-1939)

13) F.-X. Bouchard, Liberal (1939-1944)

14) Rene Chaloult, Independent (1944-1952)

15) J.-J. Bedard, Liberal (1952-1956)

16) Emilien Rochette, U.N. (1956-1960)

*) J.-J. Bedard, Liberal (1960-1966), 2^nd time

Chauveau (1966-present)

17) F.-E. Mathieu, U.N. (1966-1970)

18) Andre Harvey, Liberal (1970-1973)

19) Bernard Lachapelle, Liberal (1973-1976)

20) Louis O'Neill, P.Q. (1976-1981)

21) R. Brouillet, P.Q. (1981-1985)

22) Remy Poulin, Liberal (1985-1994)

*) R. Brouillet, P.Q. (1994-2003), 2^nd time

23) Ms. Sarah Perreault, Liberal (2003-2007)

24) Gilles Taillon, A.D.Q. (2007-2008)

25) Gerard Deltell, A.D.Q./C.A.Q. (2008-2015)

Political geography

In last year's provincial election, Deltell won the seat easily, by nearly 10,000 votes, winning 52% of the vote to the Liberal's 30%. If we just look at the election day votes, Deltell won every single polling division in the riding. In fact, he won a majority of the election day votes in every neighbourhood of the riding, winning as much as 62% in Saint-Emile, while his worst community was Lac-Beauport, where he still won 53% of the vote. The advance and special votes in the riding made the total election results closer. Deltell only won 42% of those votes, to the Liberal's 39%. The strongest community for the Liberals was the Wendake Indian Reserve, where they won 35% of the vote. The strongest area for the PQ was Lac-Delage where they won 20% of the vote. Lac-Dalage was also the best community for the left wing Quebec solidaire, where they won 8%.

The CAQ won every single poll in the riding in 2012 as well, when Deltell won by an even larger margin of 12,500 votes over the Liberal candidate. In 2008, when Deltell only won by 2600 votes, the Liberals were able to win a few more polls, such as those in Wendake and in Lac-Beaport. The PQ also won a few polls.

2014 election results in Chauveau by community

Federally, Chauveau covers parts three ridings: Louis-Saint-Laurent, Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles and Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier. Due to the area being fairly homogenous, most of Chauveau votes the same way in each election. In 2011, most of the area went NDP, with a splattering of Conservative polls in suburban areas like Loretteville, which is in the more Tory-friendly riding of Louis-Saint-Laurent. In 2006 and 2008, most of the area voted Conservative, except the area in Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier which backed libertarian leaning Independent Andre Arthur. In 2004, most of Chauveau backed the Bloc Quebecois.

Outlook

The CAQ, Liberals and the PQ are all running journalists as their candidates. The CAQ is running Jocelyne Cazin a former television host on TVA, who has been criticized for having been parachuted in by the CAQ to run in this safe seat. The Liberal candidate, Veronyque Tremblay actually lives in the riding, and is known in the area for working at a popular local radio station. The PQ candidate is Sebastien Couture, who is the chief reporter of a monthly newspaper which serves the northern rural parts of this district. Quebec solidaire is running educator Marjolaine Bouchard. The Conservatives, Option nationale and two other minor parties are also running candidates.

Despite not living in the riding, the clear front runner has to be Jocelyne Cazin of the CAQ. It does not get much safer for the centre-right CAQ than in Chauveau. I expect them to take a hit in the polls, but should get no lower than the 43% the ADQ (the CAQ's predecessor) won here in 2008. The Liberal vote could take a hit here as well, if the province-wide polls are to be believed. The PQ will likely see a large boost, but they are only starting from the 12% they won in 2014. I expect both parties will be in the low to mid 20% range. If the PQ is lucky, they might even finish second.

Jean-Talon

Geography

Further south is the riding of Jean-Talon, named for the 17^th century colonial administrator of New France. The riding, with its present boundaries is located in the west end of the city, in the Sainte-Foy—Sillery—Cap-Rouge borough. The riding contains the neighbourhoods of Cite-Universitaire (surrounding Laval University), Plateau, Saint-Louis, Sillery and part of Pointe-de-Sainte-Foy. The riding is much more urban than Chauveau, as it just covers the inner-suburbs immediately west of Quebec City's downtown.

Demographics

This part of Quebec City was once the English speaking part of the city, or at least where much of the English population lived. Today it remains the most English part of the region, however only 3.1% of the population is Anglophone, while, 94.1% is Francophone. There is also a comparatively large percentage of Arabic speakers and Spanish speakers in the district. Both languages are the mother tongues of 2% of the population. 91% of the riding is White, while Blacks, Arabs and Latin Americans all account for about 2% of the population respectively. While most of the riding has French Canadian origins, there is also a significant population with Irish ancestry. Nearly three quarters (73%) of the riding is Catholic, while there is also a small Muslim population (3%). 16% of the riding is non religious. The riding is more wealthy than the province as a whole, however is has a higher income inequality. The average income is $42,000 while the median income is $30,000.

History

While the riding of Jean-Talon has existed since 1966, the area that Jean-Talon now covers has been historically divided between both Jean-Talon and Louis-Hebert. The 2011 redistribution brought in near-equal parts from both ridings to create Jean-Talon with its current boundaries. Historically, Jean-Talon was centred on the community of Sillery, while Louis-Hebert was centred on Sainte-Foy. Louis-Hebert still exists, but the 2011 redistribution moved the riding westward, where it now contains Quebec City's western suburbs.

Jean-Talon's political history is noted for being a Liberal bastion. Jean-Talon has never elected an MNA from any party except for the Liberals. Counting the predecessor riding of Quebec-Ouest, the riding has voted Liberal continuously since 1952. The PQ has had more success in Louis-Hebert during the time it mostly covered what is today Jean-Talon. It had PQ representation from 1976 to 1982 and from 1994 to 2002.

Despite the riding's overwhelming Liberal history, they PLQ does not win this riding by huge landslides in every election. In 2014, Bolduc won the seat comfortably with a 7700 vote margin, but did not win a majority of the vote, getting just 45%. In 2012, the race was much closer, with Bolduc winning by 3500 votes and winning just 37% of the vote. The last time the Liberals won a majority of the vote here was in a 2008 by-election, where Bolduc won 58% of the vote. The race in this district has always been between the Liberals and the PQ. Neither the ADQ nor the CAQ have been able to place second here, although they have come close to finishing second in the last two elections.

MNAs:

Quebec-Ouest (1867-1966)

* Jn. Hearn, Cons. (1867-1877)

* R. Alleyn, Cons. (1877-1878)

* A.H. Murphy, Liberal (1878-1881)

* Felix Carbray, Cons. (1881-1886)

* Owen Murphy, Liberal (1886-1892)

* Felix Carbray, Cons. (1892-1900) 2^nd time

* J.G. Hearn, Liberal (1900-1904)

* J.C. Kaine, Liberal (1904-1916)

* M. Madden, Liberal (1916-1927)

* J.I. Power, Liberal (1927-1935)

* Chas. Delagrave, Liberal (1935-1944)

* Wilfrid Samson, Liberal (1944-1948)

* J.-A. Saucier, U.N. (1948-1952)

* Jules Savard, Liberal (1952-1956)

* J.-P. Galipeault, Liberal (1956-1960)

* Jean Lesage, Liberal (1960-1966)

Louis-Hebert (1966-2012)

* Jean Lesage, Liberal (1966-1970), continued

* Claude Castonguay, Liberal (1970-1973)

* Gaston Desjardins, Liberal (1973-1976)

* Claude Morin, P.Q. (1976-1982)

* Rejean Doyon, Liberal (1982-1994)

* Paul Begin, P.Q. (1994-2002); Independent (2002-2003)

* S. Hamad, Liberal (2003-2012)

Jean-Talon (1966-present)

* Henri Beaupre, Liberal (1966-1970)

* R. Garneau, Liberal (1970-1979)

* J.C. Rivest, Liberal (1979-1985)

* G. Remillard, Liberal (1985-1994)

* Mrs. M.F. Delisle, Liberal (1994-2007)

* P. Couillard, Liberal (2007-2008)

* Yves Bolduc, Liberal (2008-2015)

Political geography

In the 2014 election, Bolduc won nearly every poll in the riding. The PQ did win five polls (and tied another), four of which were located near the eastern border of the riding, close to the PQ-held riding of Taschereau. The CAQ won 12 polls, nine of which were located in the more suburban western part of the riding, west of Autoroute Henri-IV. The Liberals were strongest in Sillery, where they won 43% of election day votes. Their worst neighbourhood was Cite-Universitaire, where they won 38% of the votes. Interestingly, the best neighbourhood for the PQ was also Sillery (23%), while the best neighbourhood for the CAQ was the Plateau (27%). For Quebec solidaire, their best neighbourhood was Cite-Universitaire, thanks to the student population. Election day votes varied greatly from the advance and special votes, where the Liberals won a majority of the votes. In 2012, both the CAQ and PQ won many more polling divisions. While the Liberals won across the riding, the PQ saw most of its support east of Autoroute Henri-IV, while the CAQ saw most of its support west of Autoroute Henri-IV.

2014 election results in Jean-Talon by neighbourhood

In Federal elections, Jean-Talon is located in the riding of Louis-Hebert. In 2011, the NDP swept the area, winning nearly every poll. In 2008, the Bloc won most of the riding. In 2006, when the Tories won Louis-Hebert by just 231 votes, Jean-Talon mostly supported the Bloc. In 2004, the area was divided between the Bloc and the Liberals, with the former mostly winning in the Sainte-Foy parts of the riding, and the latter winning in the Sillery part.

Outlook

Considering Jean-Talon's political history, it is unlikely that the Liberals will lose this seat. However, the by-election will make for a good test to determine the popularity of Pierre-Karl Peladeau as leader of the PQ. The Liberals for their part have a strong candidate in Sebastien Proulx, the former ADQ MNA for Trois-Rivieres from 2007 to 2008. The PQ is running businessman (Vice president of De Marque Inc.) Clement Laberge against him. The CAQ candidate will be businessman Alain Fecteau (President of International Geo Alliance) while Quebec solidaire will be running businesswoman (President of Plan B Entertainment) Amelie Boisvert. The leader of Option nationale Sol Zanetti is also running, as are the Conservatives, the Greens, and three minor parties.

Polls close in both ridings at 8pm.