Another provincial
by-election is being held this week, this time in Ontario, in the
suburban Toronto riding of Scarborough—Rouge River, to fill a
vacancy created last March when its provincial member of parliament,
Bas Balkissoon unexpectedly resigned for mysterious reasons.
Balkissoon, a member of the governing Liberal Party, had represented
the riding since a by-election in 2005. The riding has a long history
of voting for the Liberals; it has voted Liberal in every provincial
election since 1985. However, recent election races in the riding
have been fairly close, and the expectation is that this by-election
will be too.
Scarborough—Rouge
River is located in the northeast corner of Toronto, covering a
number of very diverse neighbourhoods like Malvern and Agincourt
North. It is named for the Rouge River, which runs through the east
end of the riding. East of the Rouge River is Rouge Park, which
covers about a quarter of the riding's area and surrounds the famous
Toronto Zoo. The urban area of the riding is divided into two
clusters, Malvern/Morningside Heights in the east and
Agincourt/Millken in the west. These urban areas are further divided
into sub-neighbourhoods.
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| Map of Scarborough--Rouge River's neighbourhoods |
Demographics
Scarborough—Rouge
River is noteworthy for its huge immigrant population. A full
two-thirds of residents are immigrants, over half of which have
immigrated to Canada since 1981. China and Sri Lanka are the biggest
source of immigrants to the riding, but many immigrants have come
from the Philippines, India and Hong Kong too. Only 5% of the
residents are third or more generation Canadians.
While the riding is
very diverse as whole, it is not just one big mixed bag; the two
urban clusters have attracted immigrants from different sources. The
western half of the riding (west of Markham Road) is heavily Chinese,
while the eastern half of the riding is more diverse, but is
dominated by a large South Asian population. All together, the riding
is 33% South Asian, 31% Chinese, 11% Black and only 8% White –
making it one of the least Caucasian ridings in the country. Another
8% of the riding is Filipino. English is still the mother tongue of a
plurality of residents (40%), while Chinese is the first language of
27% and Tamil of 12%. 39% of the riding is Christian, with about half
of that being Catholic. 21% of the riding is Hindu, the largest
concentration of Hindus in any riding in the province. 9% of the
riding is Muslim.
The riding is a bit
poorer than the province as a whole. The median household income in
the riding is $62,000 (provincial median is $66,000) while the median
individual income is $21,000 (provincial median is $31,000). The
largest industries are manufacturing, retail trade and health care
and social assistance.
History
For most of its post-confederation history, this part of Scarborough
was mostly farmland, and Malvern was but a village with a post
office. From Confederation until 1955, all of Scarborough was located
in the provincial riding of York East. At that point all of
Scarborough became the riding of York—Scarborough until
Scarborough's post war population growth necessitated that the riding
be split up into small ridings in 1963. At that time, everything in
Scarborough east of Markham Road became the riding of Scarborough
East and everything west of Markham Road and north of Lawrence Avenue
became Scarborough North. Over the next few decades, the north end of
Scarborough began to grow, with development only finally slowing down
in the 2000s.
Beginning at the 1975 election, all of the north end of Scarborough
was united within a newly-shaped Scarborough North riding. Population
growth made the riding smaller over the course of its history until
the area became Scarborough—Rouge River in 1999 when provincial
riding boundaries were made to match their federal counterparts. This
means that in the next provincial election, most of the riding will
be transferred to the new riding of Scarborough North, while the
eastern half of Malvern will be moved to the new riding of
Scarborough—Rouge Park. (On a side note, the arbitrary division of
the Malvern community is quite unfortunate, considering that a better
boundary could have been Markham Road, would have made not only a
better “natural” border, but also marks the border of the two
major ethnic communities in Scarborough's north end.)
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| Scarborough--Rouge River MPP list |
Scarborough North and Scarborough—Rouge River have been
continuously represented by Liberals since 1985, with Alvin Curling
representing the area until Balkissoon's by-election win in 2005.
Before 1985, the area was a safe Tory seat, but the increasing number
of immigrants moving into the area helped the Liberals take it and
made it into a safe Liberal seat. The riding would remain a safe
Liberal seat until both the NDP and Progressive Conservatives began
making inroads into the minority communities. In 2011, NDP candidate
and school trustee Neethan Shan, an immigrant from Sri Lanka, gave
Balkissoon (himself an immigrant from Trinidad and Tobago) a run for
his money, losing by just over 2000 votes. The 2014 election would
become a three-way race with city councillor Raymond Cho (a Korean
immigrant) running for the Tories against Balkissoon and Shan, who
ran again. Fewer than 5,000 votes separated the first place
Balkissoon and the third place Cho. With the Liberals moving to the
left in their rhetoric in that election, it is possible many socially
conservative immigrants were turned off of by the Liberals as the
riding was only one of a few in the province that saw a swing from
the Liberals to the PCs.
Political geography
Following the recent collapse of the Ontario Liberal Party's (and to
a lesser extent, the federal Liberal Party) support among all
immigrant groups in this riding, the Chinese western half and the
South Asian eastern half of the riding have begun voting differently.
Whether this has something to do with the party platforms or their
respective candidates remains to be seen. However, patterns have
emerged since 2011 showing that the Chinese population is
increasingly voting for Conservative candidates, while the South
Asian population has been increasingly voting NDP. The Liberals have
still been able to get enough votes from both communities, and from
the other minority groups in the riding (such as Filipinos and
Caribbean Blacks) to still win the seat. In 2014, the only
neighbourhood in the riding to vote PC (Port Royal) also happens to
be the most Chinese neighbourhood in the riding, with 76% of the
population there being of Chinese ancestry. Meanwhile, the
neighbourhoods that voted NDP (Brookside, Dean Park, Morningside
Heights) have the highest South Asian populations in the riding. The
rest of the riding voted Liberal in 2014, to varying degrees, and is
home to a more diverse population than the aforementioned
neighbourhoods.
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| Partisan index map by neighbourhood |
Just like in my Halifax Needham post from Tuesday, I also did a partisan voting index map for Scarborough--Rouge River. In each neighbourhood, I calculated the average difference in support between each of the three parties in the last two elections from the provincial average. This is slightly different than the calculations I did last time, as I had compared the Liberals to the NDP only (with the index showing the difference from an even two-way race), but this time I used three parties, so I couldn't do that, but it amounts to pretty much the same thing. Anyways, the map shows the NDP has done much better across the riding (especially in the east) compared to their province-wide numbers, while the Liberals are about even, while the Tories tend to under-perform throughout the riding.
These ethnic voting patterns have been evident in recent federal
elections as well. In the 2011 federal election, the western half of
the riding went Conservative, while the eastern half overwhelmingly
backed the NDP's Rathika Sitsabaiesan, a Sri Lankan Tamil, who ended
up winning the seat with 41% of the vote. With the riding's South
Asian community split into two ridings in 2015, Sitsabaiesan was
forced to run in the more Chinese-dominated Scarborough North seat,
where she finished in a distant third behind the Liberal's Shaun Chen
and the Conservative's Ravinder Malhi. The rest of the riding became
part of the new riding Scarborough—Rouge Park which the Liberals
easily won with their candidate, another Sri Lankan Tamil, Gary
Anandasangaree. Did the 2015 election show that immigrants had come
back to the Liberal fold? Perhaps, but only time will tell. What is
clear is that South Asians appear more receptive to the Liberal Party
than Chinese Canadians who are more divided in their voting
allegiances.
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| Results by neighbourhood in the 2011 and 2014 provincial elections |
Outlook
While the federal Liberals remain hugely popular in Ontario, their
provincial counterparts are polling very poorly, and are well behind
the leading Tories. The Liberals have now been in power for 13 years,
and have endured scandal after scandal after scandal. While poor
inter-election poll results is nothing new for the Liberals, they are
especially at a low point – the most recent Forum Research poll
from August indicating they are now 13 points behind the Tories. And
one issue that is hurting them, especially with socially conservative
immigrant voters is the liberalization of the province's sex ed
curriculum. Popular among progressives in the province, it has been
more religious, especially immigrant voters who have been the most
opposed to it. One would think that this would help the Tories,
considering their new leader, Patrick Brown was elected with the
backing socially conservative immigrant groups. Earlier in the year
he vowed to overturn the new curriculum if elected as Premier, but he
has since backpedalled and has now indicated that he won't be
overturning the law, a move that will not help him win a riding that
is overwhelmingly immigrant.
Two polls released on the eve of the election from Mainstreet
Research and Forum Research have shown that we are indeed headed for
a close race. Mainstreet's poll shows the Tories have a 5 point lead
over the Liberals, while Forum's poll shows a tie between the two
parties. Perhaps unexpectedly, both polls show the NDP well behind in
third place, despite the party finishing second in both of the last
provincial candidates. One thing to keep in mind is that it is
incredibly difficult to poll ridings with a large immigrant
population. I saw this constantly in my polling work at EKOS in the
last election, and Scarborough North (the new federal riding
overlapping Scarborough—Rouge River) was no exception.
Impressively, Mainstreet's poll was conducted in Cantonese, Mandarin
and Tamil (in addition to English), and was even weighted by ethnic
group. The details of the Forum poll were not published, but I
personally doubt they went to the extent Mainstreet did. As a
pollster, I am particularly curious to see how well Mainstreet's poll
does, considering the methodology they used. Will the data be more
accurate, or was it all an exercise in futility in an
impossible-to-poll riding?
Two
names on the ballot will be the same as in the 2014 election. City
councillor Raymond Cho will once again be the PC candidate. Cho
actually represents the eastern half of the riding on city council,
and has been involved in municipal politics since 1991. Cho was once
a New Democrat, having run for the NDP in the 1988 federal election.
Cho later became
a Liberal, and ran as an “Independent Liberal” in the 2004
federal election, which upset the party. He then joined the
Progressive Conservatives and ran in 2014. The NDP candidate is once
again Neethan Shan, who was recently elected to represent the riding
as a school trustee for the Toronto District School Board. This will
be his third attempt to win the seat, after having come second in
2011 and 2014. This election will be Shan's 10th
electoral contest of his life. He was first elected as a school
trustee in Markham in 2006 after losing in his first attempt in 2003.
He then ran for the NDP in Scarborough—Guildwood in 2007, then for
Toronto city council in 2010 and 2014, losing both times to Cho. Fast
forward to last January when Shan was elected as a trustee in an
unnecessary, low turnout
by-election (as
all school board elections are!).
One thing that might be hurting his poll numbers is that
he
may be seen as an opportunist- and who wants to vote in another
school board
by-election if
he wins? As for the Liberals, their candidate is Piragal Thiru who
is described as a “Liberal activist”, and is a refugee from Sri
Lanka. He won the Liberal nomination by defeating the riding's former
MP, Rathika
Sitsabaiesan who had switched parties from the NDP.
With two Sri Lankans in the race, it is entirely possible their vote
will be split enough to allow the Tories to win the seat, which I
believe is the most likely scenario (but, hey- I was wrong about
Tuesday's race in Halifax!).
There are five other
candidates in the race. The Greens, who never do very well here, are
running administrator Priyan De Silva. There are also Freedom and
Libertarian Party candidates, a “None of the Above” candidate who
is running as “Above Znoneofthe” (presumably to ensure they are
last on the ballot) and an independent candidate, Queenie Yu, who
running almost exclusively to repeal the changes made to the Sex Ed
curriculum.
We'll see if I'm
right about the Tories picking this seat up when polls close at
9:00pm.
