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| Location in Alberta |
Federal by-elections
will be held in four ridings today: two in Ontario
(Scarborough—Agincourt and Trinity—Spadina) and two in Alberta
(Fort McMurray—Athabasca and Macleod). I have been doing profiles
of each of the four ridings in the run-up to by-election day. Today I
will be profiling Macleod.
Macleod is a rural
riding located in the southwestern part of Alberta. It contains many
small towns south of Calgary, and includes a number of the city's
western and southern exurbs. The riding is one of the safest seats in
the country for the Conservatives – it was their fourth best seat
in the 2011 election. The riding has been vacant since last November,
when its Member of Parliament, Ted Menzies, a junior cabinet
minister, resigned to become a lobbyist. Menzies, a farmer from
Claresholm, has represented the riding since 2004.
Geography
Macleod is a fairly large riding, located in the foothills of
southern Alberta. It runs from a line roughly following the Bow River
in the north, to Waterton Lakes National Park in the south. The
western boundary is the provincial border with British Columbia. In
the southeast, the border follows the Old Man and St. Mary Rivers,
while its northeastern boundary wraps around Vulcan County. In the
north, the riding follows the Calgary city limits as they were in the
last redistribution in 2003. Since then, the City of Calgary has
annexed some territory in its south and west, which means Macleod
also covers a small part of the city of Calgary. While Macleod is
mostly a rural riding, much of its population lives in exurban
Calgary communities on the city's west and south sides.
The riding's largest city is Okotoks (actually still incorporated as
a town), which is a fast growing exurb south of Calgary. Other
Calgary exurbs in the riding include the towns of Turner Valley,
Black Diamond and High River. Also, a small part of the Town of
Cochrane is in the riding (an area that has been annexed since the
last redistribution). Other major communities in the riding include
Vulcan, Claresholm, Crowsnest Pass, Pincher Creek, and the riding's
namesake, Fort Macleod (which was originally named Macleod). The
riding also includes a number of large Indian Reserves, including the
largest reseve in Canada (by area), Blood 148. It is also the second
most populous Indian Reserve in the country. Other reseves include
Peigan 146, Siksika 146, Eden Valley 216 and Tsuu T'ina 145.
The riding includes a number of protected areas, mostly along the
western boundary with British Columbia, in the Rocky Mountains. The
largest of these protected areas is the Elbow-Sheep Wildland in
Kananaskis. Other major protected areas include the Don Getty
Wildland, the Bluerock Wildland and the Bob Creek Wildland. Outside
of these protected areas, most of the land in the riding is covered
by Agricultural lands, including many cattle ranches.
Demographics
Macleod is mostly White (84%), but has a sizable (12%) Aboriginal
population. Most of the Aboriginal population in the riding is
Blackfoot, but there are also Sarcee and Stoney populations as well.
The only Sarcee Reserve (Tsuu T'ina Nation) in Canada is in Macleod.
Christianity is the religion of two-thirds (67%) of the riding. One
third of Christians in the riding are Catholics, while one in six
Christians belong to the United Church. 6% of the riding is Anglican.
The largest non Christian religion is Traditional Aboriginal
spirituality, at 2%. 29% of the riding is irreligious. The riding is
one of the poorest in the province, but considering Alberta's wealth,
it is not among the poorest in the country. Its median individual
income is $33,000 while it's median household income is $77,000.
Owing to Calgary's growing exurban communities, Macleod is seeing a
large population increase. It grew 15% between the last two censuses,
which is above the Alberta average of 11%. Half of all homes in the
riding have been built since 1991. Construction is the largest
industry in the riding, at 10% of the labour force.
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| Most common language after English by municipality (or Census Tract) |
88% of the riding has English as its mother tongue. The next largest
mother tongue is German at just 4%. Blackfoot is the mother tongue of
2% of the population. German is the largest non-English language in
most of the riding, especially in rural areas. There is an especially
large German concentration in Cardston County (40%) and Vulcan County
(31%). The Villages of Carmangay (36%) and Arrowwood (30%), which are
surrounded by Vulcan County also have large German populations.
French is the largest non-English language in a number of
municipalities as well, especially areas along the BC-border in the
Rockies. The largest French population in the riding is in
Kananaskis, where 8% of residents have it as a mother tongue.
Blackfoot is the main non-English language on the three Blackfoot
reserves in the riding: the Blood Tribe, the Piikani (Peigan) Nation
and the Siksika Nation. Stoney is the largest language (55%) on the
Eden Valley Reserve while Sarcee is the largest native tongue in the
Tsuu T'ina Nation.
History
The most recent iteration of Macleod was created for the 1988
election out of Bow River and Lethbridge ridings. The only close-ish
race since then was 1988, when the up-start Reform Party gave
businessman Ken Hughes a run for his money. Hughes, a Progressive
Conservative won with 51% of the vote, to Reform's Ken Copithorne who
won 31%. It was Reform's third best riding in the country in an
election where they won no seats. In 1993, when Reform became a
mainstream party, its candidate was Grant Hill, a doctor, who
defeated Hughes in a landslide – by over 17,000 votes. Hill won
again in 1997 and in 2000 (for the Canadian Alliance), increasing his
popular vote total in each election. In all three of his electoral
victories, the Progressive Conservatives finished a distant second.
In 2004, Hill did not run again. The newly merged Conservative Party
ran Ted Menzies, who won a massive three-quarters of the vote. He won
the seat over Liberal candidate Chris Shade by over 27,000 votes.
Menzies slightly increased his share of the vote in 2006, defeating
Liberal Bernie Kennedy by nearly 33,000 votes. In 2008, Menzies
increased his share of the vote once again, winning 77.4%. The next
best candidate was from the Green Party this time, Jared McCollum who
won 9%, over 31,000 votes behind Menzies. In 2011, Menzies increased
his vote share for his third straight election, winning 77.5%. This
time the NDP finished second place. Menzies defeated their candidate,
Janine Giles by nearly 35,000 votes.
Macleod is a very, very, very safe Conservative seat. Opposition
parties are lucky to break even 10% here. All three opposition
parties have had their chance at second place. Since 1988, the best
showing for the Liberals was in 1993 when they won 16%. Their worst
showing was in 2011 when they won less than 4% of the vote. For the
NDP, their best showing was in 2011 when they won 10%, and their
worst was in 1993 when they won less than 2%. The Greens had their
best showing in 2008 when they finished in 2nd place with
9%.
Members of Parliament
Alberta
(Provisional District)
Before Alberta became a province in 1905, it was the District of
Alberta in the Northwest Territories. It was represented by one MP.
- D.W. Davis, Cons. (1887-1896)
- F. Oliver, Liberal (1896-1904)
Calgary
For the 1904 election, the southern part of the District of Alberta
was divided into two ridings: Calgary and Alberta. The border
between the two ridings would run between Vulcan and Nanton. Calgary
was the northern of these two ridings, containing not only the City
of Calgary, but also Vulcan, Okotoks, High River, Black Diamond and
Turner Valley. Nanton, Stavely, Claresholm, Pincher Creek and Fort
Macleod would be in the Alberta riding.
- M.S. McCarthy, Cons.
(1904-1908)
Macleod
The first iteration of Macleod was carved from the southwestern
corner of the Calgary riding and the western half of the riding of
Alberta. The riding covered a similar territory as today. It ran from
Calgary in the north up to Lethbridge in the east. In 1914, its
eastern boundary was shifted, lobbing the Vulcan area off, removing
it from the riding. In 1924 the boundaries were only altered
slightly, and in 1933 the Vulcan area rejoined the riding at the
expense of Okotoks, Black Diamond and Turner Valley which were
removed. In 1952, the northern boundary was shifted back northwards
to include these communities again.
- Jn. Herron, Lib.-Cons. (1908-1911)
- D. Warnock, Liberal (1911-1917)
- H.M. Shaw, Unionist (1917-1921)
- G.G. Coote, Prog. (1921-1926); U.F.A. (1926-1935)
- E.G. Hansell, Soc. Cred. (1935-1958)
- L.E. Kindt, Prog. Cons. (1958-1968)
Crowfoot
In the 1966 redistribution, the western half of Macleod was
transferred to the riding of Rocky Mountain, while the rest of the
riding was mostly redistributed between Crowfoot and Lethbridge.
Rocky Mountain was a huge riding running from the US border in the
south along the western border with BC northward, almost as far as
Grande Prairie. Black Diamond and Turner Valley would be
redistributed into Rocky Mountain. The Okotoks, Nanton, High River,
Vulcan, Stavely and Claresholm areas would be redistributed into
Crowfoot (which extended as far eastward as the Saskatchewan border).
The Fort Macleod and Pincher Creek areas were redistributed into
Lethbridge.
- J.H. Horner, Prog. Cons. (1968-1979)
Bow River
In the 1976 redistribution, Crowfoot's western boundary was shifted
far to the east, excluding almost all of what is now in Macleod. The
Fort Macleod and Pincher Creek areas joined the riding of
Lethbridge—Foothills. Everything else in what is now Macleod could
be found in the new riding of Bow River, which encircled the City of
Calgary, and also included Banff National Park and Drumheller.
- G.E. Taylor, Prog. Cons. (1979-1988)
Macleod
Macleod was re-created for the 1988 election. It covered much of the
same territory as the previous Macleod riding. Its boundaries did not
change much between then and now.
- K.G. Hughes, Prog. Cons. (1988-1993)
- Grant Hill, Reform (1993-2000); Cdn. Alliance (2000-2003); Prog.
Cons. (2003-2004); Cons. (2004)
- T. Menzies, Cons. (2004-2013)
Future
The next election will see Macleod disappear once again. 86% of the
riding will be redistributed into the new riding of Foothills. In
turn, almost all of Foothills will be carved solely from Macleod. The
remaining 14% of Macleod will be redistributed into other ridings.
Vulcan County and the Siksika Nation will be removed, joining the new
riding of Bow River. Some exurban Calgary communities south of
Cochrane will join the riding of Branff—Ardrie, the Blood Tribe
will join the riding of Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner, while the
newly annexed portions of Calgary will join Calgary Midnapore and
Calgary Signal Hill.
Removing the Blood Tribe and the Siksika Nation is the main reason
why the new riding of Foothills will be ever so slightly more
Conservative than Macleod. The changes also make Foothills less NDP
and Liberal friendly.
Political geography
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| Results of the 2011 election by polling division |
Despite the fact that the Conservatives typically win every poll in
the riding, there is a large degree of polarization in the riding.
White areas vote heavily Conservative, while areas with a large First
Nations population do not (at least nowhere close to the same
degree). In 2011, there were 13 polls where the Conservatives won
less than 38% of the vote, while in all the rest of the polls, the
Conservatives won at least 60%. In not one single poll did they win
anything between 38% and 60%. Of those 13 polls where the
Conservatives won less than 38%, just one was not a First Nations
community, Kananaskis. Kananaskis is a resort village in the Rocky
Mountains in the northwest corner of the riding.
In 2011, the only opposition party to win any polls was the NDP. The
NDP won 10 polls, all on Indian Reserves. In 2008, when the Greens
finished 2nd, they won one poll: Kananaskis. The NDP won
12 polls and once again, they were all on reserves. In 2004 and 2006
it was the Liberals that benefited from the First Nations vote, as
every single opposition poll was a Liberal poll on an Indian Reserve.
In 2000, both the Liberals and NDP won Indian Reserve polls, and in
1997 the Progressive Conservatives also won some Indian Reserve
polls. Provincially, the Progressive Conservatives also do well in
Indian Reserves, due to strategic voting against the right wing Wild
Rose Party, which is very popular in this part of the province.
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| 2011 election results by regions, towns and Indian reserves of the riding |
For the Conservatives, they seem to do the best in areas with large
German populations. In 2011, their best region in the riding was
Cardston County where they won 87% of the vote. This is followed by
Vulcan County where they won 86%. Both of these regions have large
German populations. Their weakest region was the Blood Tribe, where
they won 13%. The NDP's best region was the Blood Tribe, where they
won 57% of the vote. They also won 57% in the Peigan Nation. For the
Greens, their best Region was Kananaskis, a poll which they won in
2008. For the Liberals, their best region was also the Blood Tribe,
where they won 23%. They did poorly in German regions, winning less
than 1% in both Cardston and Vulcan Counties.
Strongest and weakest polls (2011)
(I've included the Green Party this time, because they finished
ahead of the Liberals)
Strongest
polls:
-Conservatives: Poll #5-2 (94%). This poll covers a new subdivision
in the Town of Cochrane, and some rural areas south of the town. The
subdivision, known as the Willows of River Heights, was annexed by
Cochrane since the last redistribution.
-NDP: Poll #17 (79%). This poll covers most of the Tsuu T'ina First
Nation. The reserve contains two other polls, which cover the Redwood
Meadows Townsite, which is actually a White community on the reseve,
but with its own administration. However, poll #17 covers the rest of
the territory on the reseve, controlled by Tsuu T'ina Nation Council.
-Greens: Poll #1 (24%). This poll covers the resort village of
Kanananskis, known for being the location of the 2002 G8 Summit. The
Greens actually won the poll in 2008, but the Tories won it in 2011.
-Liberals: Poll #163 (35%). This poll covers one of the six polls on
the Blood Tribe Indian Reserve. The Liberals came within 2 votes of
winning the poll, which the NDP won. The poll is located east of the
main community on the reserve, Standoff.
Weakest polls:
-Conservatives: Poll #161 (3%). This poll is one of six polls located
on the Blood Tribe Indian reserve. This poll in particular is the
furthest eastern poll on the reserve, and is located adjacent to the
City of Lethbridge.
-NDP: Poll #66-1 (1%). This poll covers a rural area east of Okotoks
in the Municipal District of Foothills. The poll contains a couple of
new subdivisions, including Ravencrest Village.
-Greens: The Greens won 0 votes in five polls. Four of the five polls
were on Indian Reserves (#35, #136, #161, #164) and one was poll #5-2
south of Cochrane.
-Liberals: The Liberals won 0 votes in three polls: Poll #157 east of
Fort Macleod, Poll #95 in Vulcan and Poll #101 in Carmangay.
2008-2001 Swing
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| Two party (Conservative vs. NDP) swing (2008-2011) by polling division |
Despite Ted Menzies increasing his vote share in 2011 (+0.1%), the
two-party swing was against him, as the NDP increased its vote share
by 3.6%. The average two-party swing was thus 1.8% from the
Conservatives to the NDP. This would explain why most of the NDP saw
a swing towards them in most of the riding. One poll in particular
stands out in terms of swing to the NDP: poll #17 (Tsuu T'ina First
Nation), which was also their best poll in 2011. A huge increase in
turnout (almost three-fold) from 2008 to 2011 helped the NDP gain a
41.6% swing in this poll, which they lost in 2008. Interestingly,
other reserves in the riding saw a swing to the Conservatives,
against the NDP. This is particularly observable in the Siksika
Nation and in the Piikani Nation. Outside the reserves, most of the
areas that swung Conservative were in rural areas in the central part
of the riding. Meanwhile, the Calgary exurbs saw a swing to the NDP,
for the most part.
Outlook
Barring some sort of miracle (if you're not Conservative), the next
MP for Macleod will be the Conservative candidate, John Barlow who is
a newspaper editor from Okotoks. Barlow won the Tory nomination in a
hotly contested race in which the National Firearms Association
(Canada's NRA) endorsed his opponents. Barlow was also the
Progressive Conservative candidate in the riding of Highwood (Okotoks
and High River) in the last Alberta election. He had the pleasure of
running (and losing) against Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith.
The sacrificial lambs running against Barlow include Lethbridge
resident Aileen Burke who is running for the NDP, former Alberta
Evergreen Party leader Larry Ashmore who is running for the Greens
and Okotoks regulatory technician Dustin Fuller who is running for
the Liberals. The interim leader of the Christian Heritage Party,
David J. Reimer is also running. One would expect the CHP to do
better in rural southern Alberta, but they have had little success in
the past. Perhaps they will get some protest vote, as some
conservatives may think Barlow is not right wing enough for the
riding.
Forum Research released their final poll of the riding last night.
The result shows Barlow at 54%, which would be the worst showing for
the Tories in this riding since the party was created before the 2004
election. The Liberals were second in the poll at 15%, which would be
their best result since 1993. “Other” was third in the poll at
11% (the CHP is the only “other” party running), indicating that
there could be a high right wing protest vote. Both the NDP and the
Greens were tied at 6%. For the Tories, anything less than 60% can
be seen as a loss in such a safe seat. For the other parties, the big
race is for second place, considering the NDP, Greens and Liberals
have all held that honour in recent elections.
Update and expectations
That same Forum poll showed some updates for the other ridings as
well:
- Trinity—Spadina: Liberal 45%, NDP 35%, Conservative 11%, Green
9%. The NDP has narrowed the gap in this riding, but it still looks
as though the Liberals will win it.
- Scarborough—Agincourt: Liberal 48%, Conservative 37%, NDP 10%,
Green 4%. The Conservatives have narrowed the gap here as well, but
the Liberals should still win this safe seat.
- Fort McMurray—Athabasca: Liberal 41%, Conservative 33%, NDP 13%,
Other (Libertarian) 8%, Green 5%. This is the first poll Forum was
able to do in this riding that has been very difficult to reliably
poll due to its transient population. If this result holds true, it
would be a huge upset, as this riding was the 14th best
Conservative seat in the country in the last federal election.
However, a huge caveat must be put on that poll, and I'm not sure if
I quite believe it.
For the Liberals a “win” tonight would mean picking up
Trinity—Spadina, but also finishing at least second in Fort
McMurray—Athabasca and Macleod (winning the former would be a “huge
win”). With Adam Vaughan expected to win in Trinity—Spadina,
just picking it up won't be enough to “win the night”. For the
Conservatives, a “win” would be to make inroads in
Scarborough—Agincourt and also defend their two Alberta seats. And
for the NDP, it's going to be a tough night, where a “win” looks
to be impossible. At this point keeping Trinity—Spadina would be
huge, but just keeping it close would be a win. But losing their 2nd
place finishes in Alberta would negate that.
Well, that's it for this round of by-elections. Polls close in all
four by-elections at 9:30 Eastern.
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