Sunday, October 30, 2011

Saskatchewan 2011 provincial election prediction (Oct 30)

Click to enlarge
Saskatchewan will be going to the polls a week from Monday, and we finally have seen some opinion polls come out of the province. On Friday, both Insightrix and Forum Research published poll numbers for the upcoming provincial election.

Both firms show a landslide victory in the making for the governing right wing Saskatchewan Party. Forum Research has them at an overwhelming 66% of the vote, while Insightrix has them at 60%. The opposition NDP is at 30% according to Forum Research or 33% according to Insightrix. These polls show a gain for the Saskatchewan Party since my last prediction in the summer, while they have the NDP stagnant.

The SP has gained much of their support thanks to the total collapse of the Liberal Party. The once dominant Saskatchewan Liberal Party will be running just 9 candidates in this election. All but two will be running in Saskatoon. It is likely the Liberals will finish behind the Green Party in popular vote, as the Greens will be running a full slate of candidates. Both polls had the Greens at 3%, while the Liberals are either at 3% or 1%. In other words, neither party will be much of a factor.

A strong economy is really putting the wind in the sails for Premier Brad Wall's government. He is clearly heading toward an historic landslide victory. How far can he go? Will his party be able to win a majority of urban seats? He is unlikely to win all the seats in the province due to is polarized urban vs. Rural split. The NDP is also strong in the north.

Many people are looking at the election of 1982 to compare this race with. In that election, the Tories won 54% of the vote, while the NDP won 38%. It resulted in the Tories winning 55 seats to the NDP's 9. The Tories are now the Saskatchewan Party, and are polling much higher than what they had in 1982. The NDP is also polling much lower. This could mean very bad news for the New Democrats. They may however be buoyed by more polarized electoral map that is present day Saskatchewan.

Seat by seat predictions:
I have averaged the two new polls to come up with the current predictions.

Riding
SP
NDP
Green
Other
Projected winner
Arm River-Watrous
73
24
3
-
Greg Brkich
Athabasca
44
52
4
-
Buckley Belanger
Batoche
70
28
2
-
Delbert Kirsch
Biggar
68
26
4
2
Randy Weeks
Cannington
86
12
1
1
Dan D'Autremont
Canora-Pelly
75
23
2
-
Ken Krawetz
Carrot River Valley
73
26
1
-
Fred Bradshaw
Cumberland
45
48
7
-
Doyle Vermette
Cut Knife-Turtleford
74
24
2
-
Larry Doke
Cypress Hills
86
11
3
-
Wayne Elhard
Estevan
83
14
3
-
Doreen Eagles
Humboldt
73
23
4
-
Donna Harpauer
Indian Head-Milestone
77
19
4
-
Don McMorris
Kelvington-Wadena
81
16
3
-
June Draude
Kindersley
77
19
4
-
Bill Boyd
Last Mountain-Touchwood
72
24
3
1
Glen Hart
Lloydminster
71
28
1
-
Ted McMillan
Martensville
85
12
3
-
Nancy Heppner
Meadow Lake
56
43
1
-
Jeremy Harrison
Melfort
76
23
1
-
Kevin Phillips
Melville-Saltcoats
70
28
1
-
Bob Bjornerud
Moose Jaw North
58
39
2
1
Warren Michelson
Moose Jaw Wakamow
48
47
3
2
Greg Lawrence
Moosomin
84
15
1
-
Don Toth
Prince Albert Carlton
58
40
2
-
Darryl Hickie
Prince Albert Northcote
49
49
2
-
Victoria Jurgens or Darcy Furber
Regina Coronation Park
47
50
3
-
Jaime Garcia
Regina Dewdney
50
38
3
9
Gene Makowsky
Regina Douglas Park
46
49
5
-
Dwain Lingenfelter
Regina Elphinstone-Centre
35
59
6
-
Warren McCall
Regina Lakeview
48
42
5
-
Bob Hawkins
Regina Northeast
54
43
3
-
Kevin Doherty
Regina Qu'Appelle Valley
61
37
2
0
Laura Ross
Regina Rosemont
49
47
4
-
Tony Fiacco
Regina South
60
36
4
-
Bill Hutchinson
Regina Walsh Acres
42
54
4
-
Sandra Morin
Regina Wascana Plains
69
27
3
1
Christine Tell
Rosetown-Elrose
82
14
4
-
Jim Reiter
Rosthern-Shelbrook
66
32
2
-
Scott Moe
Saskatchewan Rivers
66
33
1
-
Nadine Wilson
Saskatoon Centre
44
53
3
-
David Forbes
Saskatoon Eastview
54
43
3
-
Corey Tochor
Saskatoon Fairview
49
48
3
-
Jennifer Campeau
Saskatoon Greystone
51
34
3
14
Rob Norris
Saskatoon Massey Place
48
50
2
-
Cam Broten
Saskatoon Meewasin
56
38
3
3
Roger Parent
Saskatoon Northwest
65
31
3
1
Gordon Wyant
Saskatoon Nutana
45
45
5
5
Zoria Broughton or Cathy Sproule
Saskatoon Riversdale
44
53
3
-
Danielle Chartier
Saskatoon Silver Springs
74
20
3
3
Ken Cheveldayoff
Saskatoon Southeast
70
23
3
4
Don Morgan
Saskatoon Sutherland
56
36
4
4
Paul Merriman
Swift Current
83
15
2
-
Brad Wall
The Battlefords
50
39
2
9
Herb Cox
Thunder Creek
80
17
3
-
Lyle Stewart
Weyburn-Big Muddy
75
22
3
-
Dustin Duncan
Wood River
86
11
3
-
Yogi Huyghebaert
Yorkton
69
30
1
-
Greg Ottenbreit


Riding changes since the last prediction:
While the NDP hasn't gone down in the polls, the increase in numbers for the Saskatchewan Party has hurt the NDP badly, and has put many more seats in the “too close to call range”. Seats I had previously going NDP but are now too close to call include Cumberland, Prince Albert Northcote, Regina Coronation Park, Regina Rosemont, Saskatoon Fairview, Saskatoon Massey Place, and even the NDP leader's own seat of Regina Douglas Park. Meanwhile, I have now called two previous too close to call seats for the Saskatchewan Party. Those are Regina Lakeview and Regina Northeast. 



Conclusion
It looks like the Saskatchewan Party will be winning one of the biggest landslide's in the province's history. Never since Saskatchewan joined Canada in 1905 has a party managed over 60% of the vote. If polls are accurate, the SP will break this record. Therefore, they are in uncharted territory. Never has the main opposition party won less than 5 seats in a provincial election. Right now, the NDP is looking at winning a minimum of just 5 seats. Due to concentrations in Regina, Saskatoon and the north, the NDP is unlikely to break this record of just 5 seats, but who knows what could happen!

2 comments:

  1. Leaders lead and it's Sask Parties time in Confederation. Brad Wall is on the cusp of making history and he can insure this generational change for many elections going forward with solid governance, fiscal prudence and sensible social programs. The NDP chose to run with a has been leader, posing as a solid family man, when he is really a rank opportunist that left Saskatchewan for career and personal reasons only to return to what thought was a coronation as premier. The NDP party could not have been more mistaken. Dwayne L will go away, just as he did before because his ego will not suffer the humiliation of 4 years in opposition. Saskatchewan has moved on from it's socialist experiment of a generation and emerged as a leader in Canada and the world.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Heh. The SP in Saskatchewan and the NDP in Manitoba are both benefiting from a boom cycle on the prairies. Not sure this warrants any of your rhetoric, as it has less to do with ideologies than you are suggesting.

    ReplyDelete