Ontario election 2011 prediction (September 13)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith.

Four more polls have been released since my last prediction on September 2. What they are beginning to show is that the Liberals have now overtaken the Tories for top spot in the province. Usually when the Liberals gain in the polls, it comes at the expense of the NDP, but the NDP and the Tories are holding firm in their numbers, and the Liberal gain appears to come from a collapse in the Green vote.

This projection will only look at the two most recent polls taken this past weekend. One by Nanos Research and one by Ipsos Reid:

	Nanos	Ipsos-Reid	Avg	Change
Liberal	38 (+6)	38 (+2)	38	(+8)
PC	35 (-1)	37 (-1)	36	n/c
NDP	24 (+1)	24 (+1)	24	-1
Greens	3 (-1)	1 (-2)	2	-5

The change is from their most recent polls, Nanos just 2 weeks ago (Aug 30-Sept 1) while the Ipsos-Reid poll change is from their last poll, six weeks ago. The Avg is the number used for my projection, while the change is from the numbers used in my last projection on September 2.

The public appears to be scared of the possibility of Hudak government, but NDP supporters seem enthusiastic about the party's high poll numbers not to jump ship. The non existent Green campaign has therefore resulted in their voters fleeing to the Liberals. Or so I can only guess! The current Liberal surge comes as a bit of a surprise to me, but then again, McGuinty pulled it off in 2007.

As mentioned, I skipped two polls from 2 weeks ago. One was a Nanos poll, and one was by Harris Decimawhich showed an unbelievable 11 point lead for the Liberals. Methinks it's an outlier.

Seat by seat projection

Riding	Lib	PC	NDP	Grn	Projected winner
Ajax—Pickering	46	38	13	3	Joe Dickson
Algoma—Manitoulin	40	16	42	2	Michael Mantha
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	37	43	17	3	Donna Skelly
Barrie	29	48	19	4	Rod Jackson
Beaches—East York	25	18	50	7	Michael Prue
Bramalea—Gore—Malton	44	28	27	1	Kuldip Kular
Brampton West	45	39	15	1	Vic Dhillon
Brampton—Springdale	45	35	18	2	Linda Jeffrey
Brant	45	33	21	1	Dave Levac
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	30	48	15	7	Bill Walker
Burlington	33	47	18	2	Jane McKenna
Cambridge	28	46	24	2	Rob Leone
Carleton—Mississippi Mills	37	48	13	2	Jack MacLaren
Chatham-Kent—Essex	31	44	23	2	Rick Nicholls
Davenport	38	12	48	2	Jonah Schein
Don Valley East	46	30	23	1	Michael Coteau
Don Valley West	49	39	9	3	Kathleen Wynne
Dufferin—Caledon	27	50	11	12	Sylvia Jones
Durham	30	48	19	3	John O'Toole
Eglinton—Lawrence	53	37	9	1	Mike Colle
Elgin—Middlesex—London	29	48	22	1	Jeff Yurek
Essex	27	39	33	1	Dave Brister
Etobicoke Centre	50	36	13	1	Donna Cansfield
Etobicoke North	51	26	22	1	Shafiq Qaadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore	44	35	18	3	Laurel Broten
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	40	44	14	2	Marlissa Gosselin
Guelph	48	29	15	8	Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk	24	60	15	1	Toby Barrett
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	37	47	13	3	Laurie Scott
Halton	37	47	15	1	Ted Chudleigh
Hamilton Centre	26	19	51	4	Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	29	29	41	1	Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain	33	28	38	1	Monique Taylor
Huron—Bruce	42	36	21	1	Carol Mitchell
Kenora—Rainy River	32	30	37	1	Sarah Campbell
Kingston and the Islands	47	30	21	2	John Gerretsen
Kitchener Centre	45	33	20	2	John Milloy
Kitchener—Conestoga	38	42	18	2	Michael Harris
Kitchener—Waterloo	32	47	18	3	Elizabeth Witmer
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex	42	39	18	1	Maria Van Bommel
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	35	43	19	3	Randy Hiller
Leeds—Grenville	27	55	15	3	Steve Clark
London North Centre	44	29	23	4	Deb Matthews
London West	49	32	18	1	Chris Bentley
London—Fanshawe	38	30	31	1	Khalil Ramal
Markham—Unionville	50	30	19	1	Michael Chan
Mississauga East—Cooksville	50	33	16	1	Dipika Damerla
Mississauga South	47	41	11	1	Charles Sousa
Mississauga—Brampton South	46	37	16	1	Armit Mangat
Mississauga—Erindale	45	39	15	1	Harinder Takhar
Mississauga—Streetsville	47	37	14	2	Bob Delaney
Nepean—Carleton	33	49	14	4	Lisa MacLeod
Newmarket—Aurora	37	47	13	3	Frank Klees
Niagara Falls	45	36	17	2	Kim Craitor
Niagara West—Glanbrook	24	55	19	2	Tim Hudak
Nickel Belt	28	20	51	1	France Gelinas
Nipissing	37	46	16	1	Victor Fedeli
Northumberland—Quinte West	42	37	19	2	Lou Rinaldi
Oak Ridges—Markham	41	43	15	1	Farid Wassef
Oakville	46	40	12	2	Kevin Flynn
Oshawa	20	43	36	1	Jerry Ouellette
Ottawa Centre	34	21	40	5	Anil Naidoo
Ottawa South	49	31	17	3	Dalton McGuinty
Ottawa West—Nepean	44	37	17	2	Bob Chiarelli
Ottawa—Orleans	49	37	12	1	Phil McNeely
Ottawa—Vanier	48	23	25	4	Madeleine Meilleur
Oxford	27	52	19	2	Ernie Hardeman
Parkdale—High Park	29	15	52	4	Cheri DiNovo
Parry Sound—Muskoka	22	49	22	7	Norm Miller
Perth—Wellington	43	40	14	3	John Wilkinson
Peterborough	44	30	24	2	Jeff Leal
Pickering—Scarborough East	47	34	17	2	Tracey MacCharles
Prince Edward—Hastings	40	38	21	1	Leona Dombrowsky
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	21	66	12	1	John Yakabuski
Richmond Hill	45	38	15	2	Reza Moridi
St. Catharines	44	35	19	2	Jim Bradley
St. Paul's	46	29	20	5	Eric Hoskins
Sarnia—Lambton	26	46	27	1	Bob Bailey
Sault Ste. Marie	54	17	28	1	David Orazietti
Scarborough Centre	45	29	25	1	Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest	42	24	32	2	Lorenzo Berardinetti
Scarborough—Agincourt	53	28	18	1	Soo Wong
Scarborough—Guildwood	43	31	25	1	Margarett Best
Scarborough—Rouge River	48	22	29	1	Bas Balkissoon
Simcoe North	27	53	16	4	Garfield Dunlop
Simcoe—Grey	24	55	14	7	Jim Wilson
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	31	52	16	1	Jim McDonnell
Sudbury	52	15	32	1	Rick Bartolucci
Thornhill	36	53	10	1	Peter Shurman
Thunder Bay—Atikokan	33	24	42	1	Mary Kozorys
Thunder Bay—Superior North	44	13	42	1	Michael Gravelle
Timikaming—Cochrane	36	18	45	1	John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay	30	23	46	1	Gilles Bisson
Toronto Centre	47	21	27	5	Glen Murray
Toronto—Danforth	29	12	53	6	Peter Tabuns
Trinity—Spadina	35	15	46	4	Rasario Marchese
Vaughan	54	34	11	1	Greg Sorbara
Welland	27	33	39	1	Cindy Forster
Wellington—Halton Hills	29	56	11	4	Ted Arnott
Whitby—Oshawa	28	49	20	3	Christine Elliott
Willowdale	46	37	15	2	David Zimmer
Windsor West	27	25	47	1	Helmi Charif
Windsor—Tecumseh	45	25	29	1	Dwight Duncan
York Centre	44	41	14	1	Monte Kwinter
York South—Weston	42	15	42	1	Paul Ferriera or Laura Albanese
York West	54	17	28	1	Mario Sergio
York—Simcoe	27	53	17	3	Julia Munro

Seat changes since last projection

I'd like to firstly thank those who emailed me or commented on my last blog post, their thoughts on a few ridings. I have incorporated many of your observations. One riding (Glengarry—Prescott—Russell) flipped from the Liberals to the Tories because of one such email I received. Keep them coming!

All of the other riding changes benefited the Liberals. This projection shows them gaining 18 seats (a net of 17): Ajax—Pickering, Brampton West, Brampton—Springdale, Brant, Etobicoke—Lakeshore, Huron—Bruce, London—Fanshawe, Mississauga South, Mississauga—Brampton South, Mississauga—Erindale, Niagara Falls, Northumberland—Quinte West, Oakville, Ottawa West—Nepean, Ottawa—Orleans, Richmond Hill, Scarborough Southwest and Willowdale. All were too close to call in my last projection. The Tories meanwhile have lost Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, Oak Ridges—Markham and Prince Edward—Hastings to “too close to call”, while the NDP has lost Algoma—Manitoulin, Thunder Bay—Superior North and York South—Weston also to “too close to call”.

Conclusion

Despite a narrow lead in the polls, the Liberals are on the cusp of a majority government. The projection shows them winning 53 seats (with 5 of those too close to call). The are tied with the NDP in one seat (York South—Weston). If they were to win that tied seat, they would get the majority needed of 54. The Liberal maximum however is at just 56- a narrow majority. That's if they win Algoma—Manitoulin and Oak Ridges—Markham which are both too close to call, but are leaning to the NDP and the Tories respectively.

The huge seat change can be attributed to the large number of seats which are within a close range of each other. A small swing in the vote in favour of the Liberals benefited them greatly in the projection. However, the seat change came mostly from previously too close to call races, and therefore did not eat into the core Tory and NDP seats much. 

Methodology/disclaimer

I have looked at each riding individually and tried to figure out what its voters might do in the upcoming election. For this, I looked at the riding history, and tried to come to a conclusion as to why certain parties did as well they did, or as poor as they did compared to other years. For certain ridings, I assumed a uniform swing, because I felt its historical voting trends follow the provincial voting trends. For other ridings, I looked at the results of the recent federal election and adjusted the results to reflect the most recent poll. And for other ridings, I could only make estimates, again using past election data. It all depended on the character of the riding.

Of course, there is bound to be some oversights on my part. If you think I have a riding wrong, please let me know. I want to get this as right as possible. The key to making correct projections is not all about the math. Rather, it's about the local conditions. That's why I will be looking at qualitative data just as much as I will be looking at quantitative.

Newfoundland and Labrador projection (Sept. 8)

Click to enlarge

The province of Newfoundland and Labrador will also be going to the polls this fall. Their election date is set for October 11. And now that there has finally been another poll released in the province, I can do my first official projection for Canada's youngest province.

Corporate Research Associates released a poll Tuesday indicating that very little has changed since previous poll from last May. The poll, which was conducted from August 15-31 indicated the following,

Prog. Cons.: 54%

NDP: 24%

Liberal: 22%

Despite still having the support of a majority of voters, the Tories are actually polling their worst since probably before Danny Williams was leader. The NDP likewise is in all likelihood at their highest polling numbers ever.

Background

Popular Tory Premier Danny Williams resigned at the height of his game last December. Williams was first elected in the 2003 election with a large majority of the vote (59%). His popularity was so high, that he won the 2007 election with the highest popular vote percentage in Canadian history, with 70% of th vote! It's a wonder how his party didn't win every seat in the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly. Somehow the Liberals won 3 seats and the NDP won 1. The Tories won 44. Despite Williams leading the provincial Tories, he hated the federal Tories. His “Anybody But Conservative” campaign in the 2008 federal election helped shut out the Harper conservatives on the rock. The Tories did come back in 2011 by winning Labrador, but were still shut out on the island.

Williams was replaced by Newfoundland's first female Premier, Kathy Dunderdale. Despite slipping in the polls, her party is still well in the lead. We were bound for having an all-female leader election this Fall, but it was not to be. Liberal leader Yvonne Jones had to step down last month due to cancer, and the Liberals quickly elected former MHA (Member of the House of Assembly) Kevin Aylward to lead them into the election. The NDP, which currently holds 2 seats in the Canadian House of Commons in the province is led by former nun Lorraine Michael. Her seat is the only one held by the party in the House of Assembly.

Races to watch

Labrador

It appears that every riding in Labrador will be interesting to watch come election night. Cartwright—L'Anse au Clair is probably the only sure bet, as it has always voted Liberal. The only question is how will Yvonne Jones fair there after she stepped down as Liberal leader due to cancer. Labrador West has been a riding that has flipped between all three parties in recent elections. Tory MHA Jim Baker is stepping aside, creating a showdown between the Tories and the NDP here. This riding is the NDP's best shot at a second seat in the province, having only lost it by 400 votes in 2007. This part of Labrador also went NDP in the federal election. Lake Melville will be an interesting race because Tory MHA John Hickey is stepping down. This seat is historically Liberal, but Hickey benefited in the 2003 election on a vote split with the Labrador Party helping him win his first race. Finally, up in the Torngat Mountains, Tory MHA Patty Pottle will be in a fight with the Liberals. She won her 2007 race by just 76 votes.

St. John's & the Avalon Peninsula

The Avalon Peninsula is the more Tory friendly part of the province. Interestingly, this is also the area that has gone NDP federally as of late, due to disaffected federal Tories making their switch to the NDP. Perhaps an unlikely choice, but when you've never voted Liberal in generations, why start now?

This part of the province was the best area for Danny Williams, as his Tories racked up massive majorities in most seats. The question is whether or not the NDP can make some inroads here, like they did provincially.

The NDP's lone seat in the province is Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi. The seat has been held by the party since 1990 when former provincial NDP leader (and current MP) Jack Harris won it. The race has been close in recent elections, and current MHA and leader Lorraine Michaels may be in a tough race against the Auditor General of the province, John Noseworthy, who is running for the Tories.

The other St. John's seats were won by overwhelming margins for the Tories in 2007, none lower than 70% of the vote. Only one incumbent is retiring, Sheila Osborne in St. John's West. She got 73% of the vote last time, and it's unlikely the Tories will lose it now.

The Tories won more massive majorities in the St. John's suburbs. Only one seat is open, as Dave Devine is retiring in Mount Pearl South. Considering he won with 84% of the vote in 2007, this one should stay Tory!

The only Liberal seat on the Avalon peninsula is Port de Grave. This seat has been Liberal for all by 7 years since the province joined confederation, and has been Liberal since 1985. MHA Roland Butler will be retiring however, making this seat an interesting one to watch, as he had only won by less than 300 votes in the 2007 election. All other races on the peninsula should be easy Tory wins.

Rural Newfoundland

Outside of the Avalon Peninsula has been traditionally more Liberal in the province. Having said that, the Liberals hold just 2 seats in all of this area, and won only one in the last election. However, if they are to make gains, it will most likely be here.

Some seats the Liberals could pick off include Bellevue (where Tory Calvin Peach won by 800 votes in 2007), The Isles of Notre Dame (where Tory Derrick Dalley won by just 7 votes), Bay of Islands (where Tory Terry Loder defeated the Liberal MHA Eddie Joyce by 400 votes. They will be in a rematch), and Humber Valley (which will be another rematch of last election where Tory Darryl Kelly defeated the sitting MHA, Dwight Ball by 300 votes). Also, recent by-elections in the area have also shown that the Liberals should be targeting other seats, such as St. Barbe. Former Liberal leader Jim Bennett is running again there in a seat he lost by 900 votes in 2007. The Liberals came within 400 votes of winning a 2008 by-election in Baie Verte-Springdale, and 700 votes from winning Terra Nova in 2009. Also, we musn't forget the riding Liberal leader Kevin Aylward is running in, St. George's—Stephenville East. He will have an uphill battle, as the Liberals were 50% behind in the 2007 election. The Liberals had picked up just one seat in a by-election during the last legislative session. Marhsall Dean won the seat for the Grits in 2009. Benefiting from a large 19% swing, he beat the Tory candidate by just 126 votes. The only other Liberal seat in the area is Burgeo-LaPoile. This Liberal stronghold should continue to go Liberal, despite the retiring of its incumbent, Kelvin Parsons. His son, Andrew will be the party's candidate in the riding that has been held by the Tories for just 7 years since 1949.

Meanwhile, the NDP will be setting its sights at Burin-Placentia West. Their candidate is Julie Mitchell, who ran and lost by 1,400 votes in 2007 to Tory Clyde Jackman. With the NDP doing much better in the polls, she is sure to have a shot at the riding. This appears to be the party's third best hope in the province.

The Tories will just have two retiring incumbents in the area. Bonavista North and Bonavista South. The Liberals may have a shot at the north riding, where Harry Harding is retiring. This seat has voted Liberal for most of its history, but the Liberals lost by 1,500 votes in 2007. In the south riding, Rodger Fitzgerald is retiring. He was acclaimed in 2007, meaning it will be hard to guage how well the Liberals will do. It has been a Tory riding since 1993 however, and Fitzgerald won by 3,300 votes in his last contested election of 2003.

Riding by riding projections:

Riding	PC	Lib	NDP	Winning candidate
Baie Verte-Springdale	40	43	17	Neil Ward
Bay of Islands	44	46	10	Eddie Joyce
Bellevue	40	41	19	Pam Pardy Ghent
Bonavista North	52	30	18	Eli Cross
Bonavista South	77	12	11	Glen Little
Burgeo-La Poile	31	60	9	Andrew Parsons
Burin-Placentia West	47	9	44	Clyde Jackman
Cape St. Francis	61	12	27	Kevin Parsons
Carbonear-Harbour Grace	59	19	22	Jerome Kennedy
Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair	17	73	10	Yvonne Jones
Conception Bay East-Bell Island	56	14	30	David Brazil
Conception Bay South	63	16	21	Terry French
Exploits	54	27	19	Clayton Forsey
Ferryland	68	9	23	Keith Hutchings
Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune	47	35	18	Tracey Perry
Gander	53	23	24	Kevin O'Brien
Grand Bank	62	19	19	Darin King
Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans	56	4	40	Susan Sullivan
Grand Falls-Windsor-Green Bay South	56	26	18	Ray Hunter
Harbour Main	67	11	22	Tom Hedderson
Humber East	68	11	21	Tom Marshall
Humber Valley	41	54	5	Dwight Ball
Humber West	48	33	19	Vaughn Granter
Kilbride	76	7	17	John Dinn
Labrador West	35	7	58	Tom Harris
Lake Melville	41	40	19	Keith Russell
Lewisporte	55	17	28	Wade Verge
Mount Pearl North	69	6	25	Steve Kent
Mount Pearl South	69	6	25	Paul Lane
Placentia-St. Mary's	63	20	17	Felix Collins
Port au Port	65	16	19	Tony Cornect
Port de Grave	31	51	18	Leanne Hussey
Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi	30	3	67	Lorraine Michael
St. Barbe	41	44	15	Jim Bennett
St. George's-Stephenville East	35	46	19	Joan Burke
St. John's Centre	60	6	34	Shawn Skinner
St. John's East	54	10	36	Ed Buckingham
St. John's North	62	9	29	Bob Ridgley
St. John's South	64	6	31	Tom Osborne
St. John's West	57	17	26	Dan Crummell
Terra Nova	58	17	24	Sandy Collins
The Isles of Notre Dame	42	50	8	Danny Dumaresque
The Straits-White Bay North	26	54	20	Marshall Dean
Topsail	66	4	30	Paul Davis
Torngat Mountains	47	43	10	Patty Pottle
Trinity-Bay de Verde	56	23	21	Charlene Johnson
Trinity North	66	13	21	Rose Wiseman
Virginia Waters	63	5	32	Kathy Dunderdale

Conclusion

Even though the Liberals were stagnant in the most recent poll, they have really benefited from the decrease in the popularity of the Tories. While they are now in third place in the polls, they are projected to win at least 7 seats. I have made a guess that the Liberals will be doing well in the western part of the province, which is the region which saw some good by-election results, and it the traditional home turf for the party. Also, their leader is running there, although I project he will lose his seat. This was also the area of PC Premier Danny Williams. Now that he is out of the picture, the inflated Tory vote will be deflated. The Liberals are also benefiting by having the edge in a number of close ridings.

I predict that much of the Tory vote will be concentrated in the eastern part of the province, which is where they have done well historically, and recently. The Liberals will finish in a distant third place in the region. I expect the NDP to do very well here, but will not win any more seats than they have already, because they wont be able to catch up to the massive Tory majorities. That's why they are still looking at two seats, despite being in 2^nd place in the polls. In fact, their next best shot is the riding of Burin-Placentia West, which is not even in the St. John's area. Without any real “star candidates”, the NDP wont be able to pick up many seats.

Methodology/disclaimer

I have looked at each riding individually and tried to figure out what its voters might do in the upcoming election. For this, I looked at the riding history, and tried to come to a conclusion as to why certain parties did as well they did, or as poor as they did compared to other years. For certain ridings, I assumed a uniform swing, because I felt its historical voting trends follow the provincial voting trends. For other ridings, I looked at the results of the recent federal election and adjusted the results to reflect the most recent poll. And for other ridings, I could only make estimates, again using past election data. It all depended on the character of the riding.

Of course, there is bound to be some oversights on my part. If you think I have a riding wrong, please let me know. I want to get this as right as possible. The key to making correct projections is not all about the math. Rather, it's about the local conditions. That's why I will be looking at qualitative data just as much as I will be looking at quantitative.

Ontario election 2011 prediction (September 2)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith

As the writs are about to be dropped in Ontario, it is time to do my final prediction before the official campaign begins. A lot has happened since my last prediction 2 weeks ago, as the campaign heats up. The biggest event of this period has to have been the death of federal NDP leader Jack Layton. Some are attributing his death to a sympathy bump for not only the federal party (which in a recent poll of federal voters, is now tied with the Conservatives), but also for the provincial party.

My last projection showed the NDP at its lowest level since March. However, two recent polls have shown a rebound for the party. The two polls were conducted earlier this week by Forum Research and Angus Reid. Forum Research has the NDP at 26% while Angus Reid has the party at 24%. The party is still in third place in both polls, but the race between the three parties is beginning to narrow. Angus Reid has the Tories at 38%, the Liberals at 31% and the Greens at 6%. Forum Research has the Tories a bit lower at 35%, the Liberals are at 30% and the Greens at 7%. Both polls confirm that the Tories are polling lower than they were earlier in the summer when they were in the low 40s, meaning a minority government is becoming more and more likely.

I am basing this projection on an average of both polls, but rounding up to favour the Forum Research poll which polled twice as many people as Angus Reid. Future projections will be using averages as well. I hope to come out with a new Ontario projection. However, I will be busy with other work during the campaign, which could limit my posts.

Methodology/disclaimer

Once again, I should mention how I am coming to my conclusions,

(From my early August projection)

I have looked at each riding individually and tried to figure out what its voters might do in the upcoming election. For this, I looked at the riding history, and tried to come to a conclusion as to why certain parties did as well they did, or as poor as they did compared to other years. For certain ridings, I assumed a uniform swing, because I felt its historical voting trends follow the provincial voting trends. For other ridings, I looked at the results of the recent federal election and adjusted the results to reflect the most recent poll. And for other ridings, I could only make estimates, again using past election data. It all depended on the character of the riding.

Of course, there is bound to be some oversights on my part. If you think I have a riding wrong, please let me know. I want to get this as right as possible. The key to making correct projections is not all about the math. Rather, it's about the local conditions. That's why I will be looking at qualitative data just as much as I will be looking at quantitative.

Seat by seat projection

Riding	Lib	PC	NDP	Grn	Projected winner
Ajax—Pickering	41	39	14	6	Joe Dickson
Algoma—Manitoulin	32	18	44	4	Michael Mantha
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	31	43	18	8	Donna Skelly
Barrie	21	49	20	9	Rod Jackson
Beaches—East York	18	19	52	11	Michael Prue
Bramalea—Gore—Malton	37	29	28	6	Kuldip Kular
Brampton West	38	39	16	7	Ben Shenouda
Brampton—Springdale	38	37	19	6	Linda Jeffrey
Brant	37	34	22	6	Dave Levac
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	21	49	17	13	Bill Walker
Burlington	25	48	19	8	Jane McKenna
Cambridge	20	47	25	8	Rob Leone
Carleton—Mississippi Mills	30	49	14	7	Jack MacLaren
Chatham-Kent—Essex	24	46	25	5	Rick Nicholls
Davenport	29	12	53	6	Jonah Schein
Don Valley East	39	31	24	6	Michael Coteau
Don Valley West	44	39	10	7	Kathleen Wynne
Dufferin—Caledon	20	50	12	18	Sylvia Jones
Durham	23	49	20	8	John O'Toole
Eglinton—Lawrence	47	37	10	6	Mike Colle
Elgin—Middlesex—London	22	49	23	6	Jeff Yurek
Essex	19	40	35	6	Dave Brister
Etobicoke Centre	44	37	14	5	Donna Cansfield
Etobicoke North	47	26	23	4	Shafiq Qaadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore	37	37	19	7	Laurel Broten or Simon Nyilassy
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	44	37	14	5	Grant Crack
Guelph	42	29	16	13	Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk	20	61	16	3	Toby Barrett
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	33	47	14	6	Laurie Scott
Halton	29	48	16	7	Ted Chudleigh
Hamilton Centre	20	19	52	9	Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	23	29	43	5	Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain	28	28	40	4	Monique Taylor
Huron—Bruce	35	37	22	6	Lisa Thompson
Kenora—Rainy River	26	33	40	2	Sarah Campbell
Kingston and the Islands	41	30	22	7	John Gerretsen
Kitchener Centre	38	33	21	7	John Milloy
Kitchener—Conestoga	33	42	19	6	Michael Harris
Kitchener—Waterloo	26	47	19	8	Elizabeth Witmer
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex	35	39	19	7	Monte McNaughton
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	29	45	20	6	Randy Hiller
Leeds—Grenville	21	57	16	6	Steve Clark
London North Centre	37	29	24	10	Deb Matthews
London West	40	32	19	9	Chris Bentley
London—Fanshawe	33	30	32	5	Khalil Ramal
Markham—Unionville	43	32	21	4	Michael Chan
Mississauga East—Cooksville	42	35	18	5	Dipika Damerla
Mississauga South	41	41	12	6	Charles Sousa or Geoff Janoscik
Mississauga—Brampton South	40	38	17	5	Armit Mangat
Mississauga—Erindale	38	39	16	6	David Brown
Mississauga—Streetsville	42	37	15	6	Bob Delaney
Nepean—Carleton	28	50	15	7	Lisa MacLeod
Newmarket—Aurora	30	48	14	8	Frank Klees
Niagara Falls	36	36	18	10	Kim Craitor or George Lepp
Niagara West—Glanbrook	17	57	20	6	Tim Hudak
Nickel Belt	24	20	53	3	France Gelinas
Nipissing	34	46	17	3	Victor Fedeli
Northumberland—Quinte West	34	37	20	9	Rob Milligan
Oak Ridges—Markham	34	44	16	6	Farid Wassef
Oakville	40	40	13	7	Kevin Flynn or Larry Scott
Oshawa	13	44	37	6	Jerry Ouellette
Ottawa Centre	30	21	41	8	Anil Naidoo
Ottawa South	42	33	18	7	Dalton McGuinty
Ottawa West—Nepean	38	39	18	5	Randall Denley
Ottawa—Orleans	42	39	13	6	Phil McNeely
Ottawa—Vanier	43	23	26	8	Madeleine Meilleur
Oxford	19	53	20	8	Ernie Hardeman
Parkdale—High Park	24	15	53	8	Cheri DiNovo
Parry Sound—Muskoka	15	51	23	11	Norm Miller
Perth—Wellington	38	40	15	7	Randy Pettapiece
Peterborough	36	31	25	8	Jeff Leal
Pickering—Scarborough East	41	34	18	7	Tracey MacCharles
Prince Edward—Hastings	32	39	22	5	Todd Smith
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	17	67	13	3	John Yakabuski
Richmond Hill	39	38	16	7	Reza Moridi
St. Catharines	39	35	20	6	Jim Bradley
St. Paul's	43	30	21	6	Eric Hoskins
Sarnia—Lambton	20	48	29	5	Bob Bailey
Sault Ste. Marie	46	18	31	3	David Orazietti
Scarborough Centre	38	31	28	4	Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest	34	25	34	7	Lorenzo Berardinetti or Bruce Budd
Scarborough—Agincourt	49	29	19	3	Soo Wong
Scarborough—Guildwood	39	31	26	4	Margarett Best
Scarborough—Rouge River	51	22	24	3	Bas Balkissoon
Simcoe North	20	54	17	9	Garfield Dunlop
Simcoe—Grey	18	55	15	12	Jim Wilson
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	24	54	17	5	Jim McDonnell
Sudbury	45	16	35	4	Rick Bartolucci
Thornhill	32	53	11	4	Peter Shurman
Thunder Bay—Atikokan	27	25	45	3	Mary Kozorys
Thunder Bay—Superior North	37	13	45	5	Steve Mantis
Timikaming—Cochrane	29	20	49	2	John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay	24	24	49	2	Gilles Bisson
Toronto Centre	43	21	28	8	Glen Murray
Toronto—Danforth	24	12	54	10	Peter Tabuns
Trinity—Spadina	26	15	49	10	Rasario Marchese
Vaughan	49	34	12	5	Greg Sorbara
Welland	19	33	42	6	Cindy Forster
Wellington—Halton Hills	23	56	12	9	Ted Arnott
Whitby—Oshawa	21	50	21	8	Christine Elliott
Willowdale	40	38	16	6	David Zimmer
Windsor West	20	26	50	5	Helmi Charif
Windsor—Tecumseh	37	25	32	6	Dwight Duncan
York Centre	39	41	15	5	Michael Mostyn
York South—Weston	36	15	43	6	Paul Ferriera
York West	50	17	29	4	Mario Sergio
York—Simcoe	19	53	18	10	Julia Munro

Seat changes since last projection

Both the Liberals and the Tories lost support in the last two weeks, almost evenly, with the Liberals suffering slightly more. That is why there were not many seats projected to go from the Liberals to the Tories. Most of the projection changes involved seats projected to go to the NDP or to toss up.

The Liberals are down six seats in this projection. Brant, Ottawa—Orleans and Willowdale are all now toss ups with the Tories. Scarborough Southwest is now a toss up with the NDP, while London—Fanshawe is now a three-way toss up. Thunder Bay—Superior North has been shifted from the Liberal column all the way to the NDP's.

The Tories are down two seats in this projection. Both Kenora—Rainy River and Welland are now projected to go NDP, instead of PC.

Finally, 7 former toss up ridings are now projected to go NDP. These are Algoma—Manitoulin, Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, Ottawa Centre, Thunder Bay—Atikokan, Timiskaming—Cochrane and York South—Weston.

Conclusion

The NDP was the big beneficiary of this projection, gaining ten seats from two weeks ago. In addition, they are now tied in Scarborough Southwest and are in toss up range in London—Fanshawe, putting their maximum at 21. This NDP surge has made a minority government situation all but inevitable at this point. The Tories have the projected seat lead, looking at a minimum of 37 seats and a maximum of 56 seats (factoring in 19 of those 20 toss ups). 57 seats would give them a bare majority. The Liberals are outside of being able to win a majority at this point, with their maximum at 51 seats (minimum is at 31).

The Toronto Star has said that this race is now a 3-way race, but the NDP is still in third place at the moment. They need to win some of their distant targets to over come the Liberals to form the official opposition. In addition to their 21 maximum, they would also need to win Windsor—Tecumseh, Sudbury, Scarborough Centre, Oshawa, Essex and Bramalea—Gore—Malton to tie the Liberals at 27 seats. They are projected to be within 10% in those seats.