Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Ontario election 2011 prediction (early August edition)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith.
When I got back from my cottage trip yesterday, I found out that there was a new poll put out by Forum Research for the Ontario election. So, that means another projection for the election. I will continue my Toronto series on another date.

The poll was very interesting. It saw the Tories take a bit of a hit, and they are down to 38% from 41% from the last Forum poll. This may be attributed to Hudak's controversy surrounding abortion. The Liberals gained two points, and are now up to 28%, while the NDP also gained 2 points up to 24%. The Greens were down one to 7%.

From now on, my projections will also come with projected percentages as well. This will also be shown on the map, with darker shades indicating a higher projected vote total for the winning party. Gray will still mean a toss up, indicating the riding's leading party is within 3 percentage points from the next party.

This is my first attempt at making percentage projections. I have looked at each riding individually and tried to figure out what its voters might do in the upcoming election. For this, I looked at the riding history, and tried to come to a conclusion as to why certain parties did as well they did, or as poor as they did compared to other years. For certain ridings, I assumed a uniform swing, because I felt its historical voting trends follow the provincial voting trends. For other ridings, I looked at the results of the recent federal election and adjusted the results to reflect the most recent poll. And for other ridings, I could only make estimates, again using past election data. It all depended on the charactar of the riding.

Of course, there is bound to be some oversights on my part. If you think I have a riding wrong, please let me know. I want to get this as right as possible. The key to making correct projections is not all about the math. Rather, it's about the local conditions. That's why I will be looking at qualitative data just as much as I will be looking at quantitative.

Alas, here is how I see things:


Riding Lib PC NDP Grn
Ajax—Pickering 42 39 13 6
Algoma—Manitoulin
29
24 43 4
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale
30
45
17
8
Barrie
21
51
19
9
Beaches—East York
16
22
51 11
Bramalea—Gore—Malton 36
31
27
6
Brampton West
37
41
15
7
Brampton—Springdale
37
39
18
6
Brant 36 36
21
6
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
19
52
16
13
Burlington
24
50
18
8
Cambridge
20
48
24
8
Carleton—Mississippi Mills
29
51
13
7
Chatham-Kent—Essex
23
48
24
5
Davenport
31
11
52 6
Don Valley East 38
33
23
6
Don Valley West 45
41
9
7
Dufferin—Caledon
18
53
11
18
Durham
22
51
19
8
Eglinton—Lawrence 42 42
10
6
Elgin—Middlesex—London
21
51
22
6
Essex
19
43
34
4
Etobicoke Centre 44
38
13
5
Etobicoke North 47
27
22
4
Etobicoke—Lakeshore 38
37
18
7
Glengarry—Prescott--Russell 45
37
13
5
Guelph 37
28
15
18
Haldimand—Norfolk
18
64
15
3
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
31
50
13
6
Halton
28
50
15
7
Hamilton Centre
21
20
51 9
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
21
32
42 5
Hamilton Mountain
30
27
39 4
Huron—Bruce
34
39
21
6
Kenora—Rainy River
23
36
39 2
Kingston and the Islands 40
32
21
7
Kitchener Centre 39
34
20
7
Kitchener—Conestoga
34
42
18
6
Kitchener—Waterloo
28
46
18
8
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
33
42
18
7
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington
30
45
19
6
Leeds—Grenville
19
60
15
6
London North Centre 38
29
23
10
London West 39
34
18
9
London—Fanshawe
26
28
31 5
Markham—Unionville 42
34
20
4
Mississauga East—Cooksville 41
37
17
5
Mississauga South
40
43
11
6
Mississauga—Brampton South
39
40
16
5
Mississauga—Erindale
37
42
15
6
Mississauga—Streetsville 40
38
14
6
Nepean—Carleton
26
53
14
7
Newmarket—Aurora
29
50
13
8
Niagara Falls
35
38
17
10
Niagara West—Glanbrook
16
59
19
6
Nickel Belt
24
21
52 3
Nipissing
34
47
16
3
Northumberland—Quinte West
33
39
19
9
Oak Ridges—Markham
33
46
15
6
Oakville
40
41
12
7
Oshawa
10
45
36
6
Ottawa Centre
28
22
42 8
Ottawa South 44
32
17
7
Ottawa West—Nepean
38
40
17
5
Ottawa—Orleans 42
40
12
6
Ottawa—Vanier 41
26
25
8
Oxford
18
55
19
8
Parkdale—High Park
23
15
54 8
Parry Sound—Muskoka
14
53
22
11
Perth—Wellington
39
40
14
7
Peterborough 35
33
24
8
Pickering—Scarborough East 41
35
17
7
Prince Edward—Hastings
32
42
21
5
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
17
68
12
3
Richmond Hill 39
39
15
7
St. Catharines
37
38
19
6
St. Paul's 44
30
20
6
Sarnia—Lambton
18
49
28
5
Sault Ste. Marie 46
21
30
3
Scarborough Centre 37
32
27
4
Scarborough Southwest 34
26
33
7
Scarborough—Agincourt 46
33
18
3
Scarborough—Guildwood 39
32
25
4
Scarborough—Rouge River 51
23
23
3
Simcoe North
19
56
16
9
Simcoe—Grey
17
57
14
12
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
23
56
16
5
Sudbury 45
17
34
4
Thornhill
30
56
10
4
Thunder Bay—Atikokan
28
25
44 3
Thunder Bay—Superior North
36
15
44 5
Timikaming—Cochrane
29
21
48 2
Timmins—James Bay
24
26
48 2
Toronto Centre 43
22
27
8
Toronto—Danforth
24
13
53 10
Trinity—Spadina
26
16
48 10
Vaughan 48
36
11
5
Welland
18
35
41 6
Wellington—Halton Hills
21
59
11
9
Whitby—Oshawa
20
52
20
8
Willowdale 41
38
15
6
Windsor West
18
26
51 5
Windsor—Tecumseh 36
27
31
6
York Centre
37
44
14
5
York South—Weston
35
17
42 6
York West 51
17
28
4
York—Simcoe
18
55
17
10

Conclusion
These numbers give us a Tory minority.  Just like in the federal election, the provincial election will see much of the electoral fighting happening in the Greater Toronto Area. This is the area that I have made the most projection changes in. 11 of the 20 ridings that are too close to call are in the GTA.

While the Tories are looking at a minority right now, they could still potentially win up to 61 seats, if they win all of the toss ups. The maximum number of seats the Liberals can win at this point is 46, which is still shy of a majority. The NDP is looking at a maximum of 21 seats, which would be the highest since they formed government in 1990.


Party Projected seat totals (toss ups included in table) Change from last projection Projected seat totals (toss ups excluded from table)
PC 42 -14 50
Liberal 27 (+9) 34
NDP 18 n/c 20
Toss ups 20 (+5) 3 (ties)

1 comment:

  1. I'm rather partial to minority governments.

    ReplyDelete