Monday, April 30, 2012

2012 Alberta provincial election analysis


Results map
One week ago, Albertans went to the polls and elected their 12th consecutive Progressive Conservative government in a row. While the Tories have been in power for 41 years now, this result was a massive surprise victory. Every single poll conducted during the campaign pointed to a victory by the right wing Wildrose Party. Some polls suggested they would win by up to ten percentage points. However the election result was the inverse of this. The Tories won the election in a landslide- winning the popular vote by 10%!

So, what happened?

Well, first of all, some blame has to be put on the polling companies. There is no way that going into the last weekend of the campaign the Wildrose Party was ahead by the numbers the polls were showing. You just don't get nearly 20% of voters changing their minds within a few days, especially if no large news story occurs that would derail the campaign. Sure, there were some racist and homophobic comments made by candidates, and sure they weren't condemned by leader Danielle Smith, but was that enough to convince nearly one in five Albetans to change their voting intentions in the last weekend? The comments weren't even made that close to the actual election date. And polls conducted after the comments were made still showed the Wildrose Party ahead.

One thing that may have contributed to a large late swing in voting intentions is the large number of undecideds reported in the last few polls. Clearly these were voters who were lukewarm about voting Tory, and were taking a look at the Wildrose Party but ultimately decided against such a risky vote. These undecideds must have gone en masse to the Tories just before the election.

Another factor that much of the media speculated as to why the Tories won was strategic voting by Liberals and NDPers. While it is true many regular Liberal and NDP voters voted for the Tories in this election, their minds were made up about voting Tory long before the election date. If the polls got one thing right on election day, it was the popular vote percentage for both the NDP and the Liberals. This indicates that there was no last minute swing of Liberal and NDP voters towards the Tories.

In the end, the Tories won 61 seats out of the 87 seats up for grabs. The Wildrose Party still finished second with 17 seats. The Liberals finished third with five, and the NDP won four seats. These seat totals point to a landslide victory, but the popular vote was closer. The Tories won 44% of the vote while the Wildrose Party won 34%.

The Wildrose Party was relegated mostly to rural southern Alberta, which is where they won most of their seats. All but four of their seats won were in rural southern Alberta, and only one of their 17 seats was in northern Alberta. They won just three urban seats; two in Calgary and one in Medicine Hat. This lack of success in northern Albertan and in Calgary, where they were expected to do well, resulted in their loss.

The Tories won the election by winning most of Calgary and Edmonton, as well as nearly sweeping Northern Alberta. They were especially strong in suburban Calgary and Edmonton, where voters are more socially progressive and less likely to support a party like Wildrose, but are still too right wing to vote Liberal or NDP.

The Liberals did much better than most predictors had thought. While their popular vote was around what was expected, their seat total was very efficient. They won five seats thanks to some strong candidates as well as good demographics for the party in urban ridings. The Liberals were still relegated to three seats in Calgary and two in Edmonton.

As expected, the NDP doubled their seat total to four, but were still not able to win any seats outside of Edmonton. They did win less seats and less votes than the Liberals however, and that must be seen as a disappointment for the party.

Where I went wrong.
My prediction of the Alberta election was my worst prediction ever. I will be the first to admit that it was inexcusable. I was the only predictor that got less than 50% of the ridings correct (I got only 45%). This is almost impossible to attain, because in most elections there are more than 50% of seats considered “safe”, meaning you are guaranteed to be at least half right. That wasn't the case however in this election, because of the expected Wildrose surge.

When two parties battle each other for similar voters, as was the case in this election, it can be very difficult to determine where one party will win and lose. Especially, considering a lack of historical precedent to help guide me in making a prediction. I used poll data that projected a near-10 point victory for the Wildrose Party, which resulted in a prediction of 62 seats. However, the reverse happened. The Tories won by 10 points, and they won 61 seats. While I got the parties wrong, I can at least be happy to know I predicted the fact that a 10 point victory for a party would result in a 60 seat landslide. Especially considering these two parties were duking it out for the same right wing voter. If Wildrose had won by a margin that polls were suggesting, I would have probably been very accurate.

I cannot ignore however the fact that I did get less ridings correct than other predictors. So, what did I do differently that would result in that? Most predictors took into consideration one final poll conducted by Forum Research on the day before the election which showed the two parties very close to each other, albeit with Wildrose still ahead. I made my predictions before this poll was released, and therefore did not take it into consideration. However, even if I had seen the poll, I probably would not have put much weight into it. It appeared to be an outlying poll, inconsistent with polls conducted not just by other pollsters, but one from the previous day conducted by the same Forum Research firm. Plus, the poll was conducted on a Sunday, which is probably the least reliable polling day of the week, as people are less likely to do polls on that day. I had also hypothesized that many religious Wildrose supporters were not polled because it was a Sunday, and was one of the reasons why that poll showed a low number for them. But, I was clearly wrong.

I can take solace in a few things, however. Every riding that Wildrose won, I had predicted they would. All but one seat I had predicted the Tories would win, they did. Same for the NDP. Also, I was the only major predictor to have the Liberals winning any seats, let alone the four I predicted. Out of those four, they won three plus two more I had not predicted.

Usually after an election, I analyze each riding that I got wrong. However, because I got most ridings wrong, this would be too lengthy. So, I will take a look at the ten ridings I was off by the most:

10: Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley
The fact that the Tories even won this riding has to be one of the biggest riding level surprises of the election. Why? Well, this was the second best riding for the Alberta Alliance back in the 2004 election, where they lost the seat by just 300 votes. So, it this was one of the ridings I thought Wildrose would have in the bag. However, it was not to be, as it went the same way as most of the rest of Northern Alberta. This was still a close race, however. The Tories won this seat by 200 votes, an even narrower margin than 2004. I however expected Wildrose to take it easily however, as I underestimated the Tories by 20%, and overestimated Wildrose by 15%

9. West Yellowhead
Some have described West Yellowhead as being the most left wing rural Alberta riding. That is why it wasn't a huge surprise that the Wildrose Party didn't win here. After all, it was one of their worst ridings in in 2008, getting just 4%. However, this was the riding of the Alberta Party leader, Glenn Taylor. I figured much of the left wing vote would go to him, instead of the Tories, allowing Wildrose to come up the middle and win. While Taylor did get 17% of the vote here (more than I predicted, too), the Wildrose Party underperformed my prediction by 11%, and therefore didn't have the votes to come up the middle. The Tory vote held its ground, and they outperformed my prediction by 21%.

8. St. Albert
I got this riding wrong because I thought the Wildrose Party had a strong, credible candidate in city councillor James Burrows. The seat was open, and I thought that would be enough for him to win. However, what I should have taken into consideration is the riding's large left wing base. In 2008, 46% of the riding voted for left wing parties. Neither the Liberals nor the NDP were running credible campaigns here. Where were those votes going to go? Well, they went to the PCs, who won this seat with the same percentage as in 2008. What the Tories lost to the Wildrose here, they gained back from the Liberals and NDP. Burrows underperformed my prediction by 13%, and the Tories overperformed by 21%.

7. Peace River
This riding was a surprise because of the decent showings the Wildrose and the Alberta Alliance have had here in the past. Wildrose got 11% of the vote in 2008, and the combined Alberta Alliance and Social Credit vote in 2004 was 14%. However, this remote riding in Northern Alberta is not very culturally similar to the Wildrose base in rural southern Alberta. Wildrose got just 28% of the vote here, underpolling by projection by 15%. The Tories held their ground, getting 21% more than I had predicted.

6. Calgary-North West
An open seat, in suburban Calgary, with the Wildrose ahead in the polls in the city? Why wouldn't one predict this seat go Wildrose? They did get a strong 15% here in 2008, as well. Maybe because the riding had a large Liberal vote willing to go PC to stop Wildrose. Well, that's what happened. The Liberal vote collapsed here, going from 30% in in 2008 down to 7%. This benefited the Tory candidate who actually increased the popular vote for the PCs from 46% to 52%. This was 22% higher than what I predicted. Wildrose was 11% lower than my prediction.

5. Calgary-Glenmore
This riding was another big surprise on election night. After all, the Wildrose had already won this seat in a by-election in 2009. So, not only did they have an incumbent in former leader Paul Hinman, they also had the benefit of already having won the riding. However, on election night Hinman only increased his portion of the vote by 1% from his by-election victory. However, that was only good enough for 38% of the vote. What did him in however was strategic voting from the Liberals. This riding had a large Liberal based that collapsed into the Tories. The Tories gained 22% from their by-election showing to secure 49% of the vote. That was 22% more than I had thought. Meanwhile, The Wildrose underperformed my prediction by 14%.

4. Calgary-GreenwayWhat really did in the Wildrose Party in this riding was their controversial candidate, Ron Leech. Leech had made comments during the campaign suggesting he had an advantage in the race, because he was white. His opponent was Manmeet Bhullar, a Sikh. In the end it was Bhullar who had the advantage, winning the race easily. The Tories increased their proportion of the vote by 11% from the redistributed 2008 results in this new riding. This came thanks to Liberal voters which made up 30% of the riding in 2008, but which collapsed to 11%. It was difficult for me to figure out how much those racist comments would hurt Leech. In the end, I still predicted he would win, which was a mistake. Bhullar got 22% higher than my prediction, while Leech underperformed by 17%.

3. Red Deer-South
With the Wildrose Party having a large lead in southern Alberta, it was easy to predict that Red Deer-South would be caught up in their surge. However, on election night, urban ridings, even in Southern Alberta stayed with the Tories. This included both Red Deer ridings. Red Deer-South was not caught up in the Wildrose wave, and thus I got this prediction wrong. Wildrose got 35% of the vote, 12% lower than I predicted. The Tories got 44% here, 23% higher than I expected. This was partially thanks to a collapsed Liberal vote, which went down from 27% down to 7%.

2. Calgary-Varsity
This was a Liberal seat that was being vacated by its outgoing incumbent Harry Chase. This left the riding open, and hard to predict. I figured Wildrose would win it, since they were ahead in Calgary. However, those Liberal voters went to the Tories en masse, securing the victory for their candidate, Donna Kennedy-Glans. The Tories got just 37% of the vote here in 2008, but this was increased to 46% on election night. The Liberals still held their own, but their share of the vote shrank from 47% to 21%. Wildrose wasn't even strong enough to win this, getting just 26% of the vote. I thought Tory voters would strategically vote Liberal in this riding, instead of the other way around, which is why I messed up here. I overestimated the Liberals by 5 points, while I underestimated the Tories by 24%! And, I overestimated the Wildrose Party by 15%.

1. Banff-Cochrane
Finally, the riding that I got the most wrong was Banff-Cochrane. This riding was the only rural riding in Southern Alberta to not go Wildrose. I adjusted my numbers in this riding as if it was just like the rest of Southern Alberta, but the riding is very different from the rest of the region. It is more left wing, shall we say, as it includes some resort communities like Banff. However, the riding was an open seat, meaning I thought the Tories wouldn't do very well at all. That's where I made my first mistake. 49% of voters in this riding in 2008 voted for left wing parties. And they weren't going to vote Wildrose. So while the Wildrose candidate managed to get 37% of the vote, many left wing voters held their nose and voted Tory to circumvent this. The Tories won the seat with 42% of the vote, a loss of just 7% of the vote. I had them only getting 15% of the vote (a 27% difference). This was a big error on my part, I'll admit. I was closer with my Wildrose numbers though, just overestimating them by 7%. I also overestimated the Liberals and NDP by 10% and 12% respectively to really blow this one. I am however, comforted by the fact that I did say if the Tories were going to win one riding in southern Alberta, it was going to be this one.



Results analysis
With my failed predictions out of the way, it's time to look at what actually happened to get an insight of party strengths and weaknesses on election night. I have provided maps for each of the four main parties, showing their strengths and their weaknesses.

PC strength

Progressive Conservatives
On election night, the Tories saw their strongest showing in suburban Edmonton and Calgary. If you think about it, these are the types of voters that feel the most at home with the PCs. The are economically conservative, but socially moderate. Too moderate to be attracted to the Wildrose Party. The Tories also did well in Northern Alberta, but won most of their races in that region by close margins. If the WRP wants to win in the future, it will come by winning the north.

The Tories saw their weakest numbers in rural southern Alberta and in the urban cores of Edmonton and Calgary. In rural southern Alberta, they were outflanked on their right by the Wildrose Party. In urban ridings in Calgary they were outflanked on the left by the Liberals, and in Edmonton they were outflanked by the Liberals and the NDP.

Wildrose strength

Wildrose
The Wildrose Party saw their strenghth relegated to rural southern Alberta. A sparse land of cowboys and farmers. This areas is one of the most right wing in the county, and is the most receptive to the Wildrose Party. Outside this rural zone, they won just one northern riding (Lac La Biche-St. Paul Two Hills), two ridings in suburban Calgary, and Medicine Hat. Wildrose still did quite well in Northern Alberta, and in southern Calgary, two areas they will need to actually win seats to win the election.

The worst areas for Wildrose were in Edmonton and in central Calgary. The City of Edmonton was a dead zone for the party. Even though some polls had the party leading in the city, when push came to shove, they were not able to even break 25% in any city riding. In all but a few ridings, the party was did not even break 25% of the vote. We know Wildrose did poorly in 2008 in Edmonton, and despite the polls they did poorly once again. The party's next poorest area was in a handful of central Calgary ridings which were Liberal-PC races. The demographics of those ridings were not conducive to supporting a party like Wildrose.

Liberal strength

Liberals
2012 was a horrible election for the Liberals, who were lucky to win the five seats that they did. The party won two seats in Edmonton and three in Calgary. Save for a few ridings, most of their strength was concentrated in the two major cities. Edmonton was the best part of the province for the Liberals, despite winning less seats there than in Calgary. There were only five ridings in the city where they did not break 10%. Four of those ridings were won by the NDP. Calgary was the next best region for the Liberals. There were nine ridings in the city where they broke 10%, located mostly in the central urban part of the city, and in the eastern part of the city where there's more immigrants.

The worst area for the Liberals was of course everything else. Outside of Edmonton and Calgary there were only five ridings where the Liberals broke 10%. Three of those ridings were still urban in nature, being in St. Albert, Red Deer and Lethbridge. The other two were located in the western part of the province where there are more left leaning communities like Banff. Rural Southern Alberta was the worst of the worst for the Liberals. In rural ridings south of Red Deer, only in Banff-Cochrane and the semi-urban Cypress-Medicine Hat riding did the Liberals even get more than 3% of the vote.

NDP strength

NDP
Much like the Liberals, the City of Edmonton was the best part of the province for the NDP. Unlike the Liberals however, the NDP was dead in the water in Calgary. Edmonton was where the party won all four of its seats. The NDP broke 10% in all but five ridings in Edmonton. All five of those ridings were located in the more suburban southwest corner of the city. Their strongest ridings were of course in the urban part of the city. Outside of Edmonton, the NDP broke 10% in only six ridings, including both Lethbridge ridings. Outside of Edmonton, the best riding for the NDP was Lethbridge-West where their candidate, Shannon Phillips finished second, losing by 1100 votes.

Suburban and exurban Calgary was the worst area in the province for the NDP. The party received less than 5% of the vote in nearly every single one of these ridings. In Calgary, the NDP only broke 6% in three ridings. Rural Alberta was the next worst area for the NDP, especially in Central Alberta. In Central Alberta, the NDP only broke 6% in four ridings.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Alberta 2012 provincial election results

Final results
Party Leader Seats Popular Vote %
Prog. Cons. Alison Redford 61 567,053 43.95
Wildrose Danielle Smith 17 442,431 34.29
Liberal Raj Sherman 5 127,643 9.89
N.D.P. Brian Mason 4 126,755 9.82
Alberta Party Glenn Taylor 0 17,171 1.33
Evergreen Larry Ashmore 0 5,082 0.39
Social Credit Len Skowronski 0 294 0.02
Communist Naomi Rankin 0 210 0.02
Separation Party Bart Hampton 0 68 0.01
Independents N/A 0 3,511 0.27
Turnout: 57%
Seat %

Popular vote %

 Leaders 
Key




Sunday, April 22, 2012

2012 Alberta election - final prediction.

Final prediction map.

I've read your comments, I've analyzed the polls, and I've read the tea leaves. It's time for my final prediction of the Alberta election being held tomorrow.

Since my last projection, the Progressive Conservatives have made a small come back in polls, but it shouldn't be enough for them to overtake the Wildrose Party which appears to be headed for a majority government. Polls currently show the Tories in the low 30s, while the Wildrose Party has been pretty consistently polling at 41%. From the looks of it, the NDP should finish 3rd, but the Liberals wont be far behind. Both parties are polling in the low teens.

Anyways, I've tried to take a look at every riding to try and think who will win in each one, and to project how much each candidate will get. I've taken a look a regional polling as well as comments I've read either on my blog, being emailed to me, or on other websites. I hope I have compiled the most accurate prediction of the election. However, this election has been very hard to predict. With an upstart party like the Wildrose coming out of nowhere, it has been tricky to determine not so much where they will win, but where they won't. I'd like to thank everyone who provided we with their two cents worth.

And now my final predictions (I do reserve the right to change my predictions up until polls open tomorrow, if there are any glaring errors):
Riding PC WRP Lib NDP Oth Winning candidate
Airdrie 34 51 6 7 2 Rob Anderson
Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater 42
41
5 12 - Jeff Johnson
Banff-Cochrane
15
44 24 19 - Tom Copithorne
Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock
37
47 6 8 2 Link Byfield
Battle River-Wainwright
44
47 5 5 1 Dave Nelson
Bonnyville-Cold Lake
44
45 5 8 - Roy Doonanco
Calgary-Acadia
39
42 11 6 2 Richard Jones
Calgary-Bow
34
46 12 6 2 Tim Dyck
Calgary-Buffalo
25
32
34 7 2 Kent Hehr
Calgary-Cross
38
40 10 10 2 Hardyal Mann
Calgary-Currie
26
39 21 7 8 Corrie Adolph
Calgary-East
34
43 13 8 1 Jesse Minhas
Calgary-Elbow 39
37
15 6 3 Alison Redford
Calgary-Fish Creek
38
45 11 6 - Heather Forsyth
Calgary-Foothills
34
43 18 5 - Dustin Nau
Calgary-Fort
36
43 15 8 2 Jeevan Mangat
Calgary-Glenmore
26
53 15 6 - Paul Hinman
Calgary-Greenway
32
49 11 8 - Ron Leech
Calgary-Hawkwood
27
47 13 7 6 David Yager
Calgary-Hays
37
46 11 6 - Wayne Anderson
Calgary-Klein
26
44 13 15 2 Jeremy Nixon
Calgary-Lougheed
38
45 11 6 - John Carpay
Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill
34
46 12 6 2 Roy Alexander
Calgary-McCall
23
40 27 6 3 Grant Galpin
Calgary-Mountain View
19
33
38 8 2 David Swann
Calgary-North West
29
49 12 6 4 Chris Challis
Calgary-Northern Hills
37
41 16 6 - Prasad Panda
Calgary-Shaw
35
46 11 6 2 Jeff Wilson
Calgary-South East
39
46 10 5 - Bill Jarvis
Calgary-Varsity
22
41 26 7 4 Rob Solinger
Calgary-West
31
48 12 5 4 Andrew Constantinidis
Cardston-Taber-Warner
14
74 2 10 - Gary Bikman
Chestermere-Rocky View
42
48 6 4 - Bruce McAllister
Cypress-Medicine Hat
26
49 13 12 - Drew Barnes
Drayton Valley-Devon
39
45 6 10 - Dean Shular
Drumheller-Stettler
32
53 3 11 2 Rick Strankman
Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley
25
57 2 16 - Kelly Hudson
Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview
23
27
8 41 1 Deron Bilous
Edmonton-Calder
29
24
9 35 3 David Eggen
Edmonton-Castle Downs 36
29
19
14
2 Thomas Lukaszuk
Edmonton Centre
15
28
34
23
- Laurie Blakeman
Edmonton-Decore
29
31
23
17
- Chris Bataluk
Edmonton-Ellerslie 33
32
16
16
3 Naresh Bhardwaj
Edmonton-Glenora
24
20
16
34 6 Ray Martin
Edmonton-Gold Bar 29
22
18
28
3 David Dorward
Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood
14
26
7
50 3 Brian Mason
Edmonton-Manning 32
29
13
23
3 Peter Sandhu
Edmonton-McClung 32
29
26
10
3 David Xiao
Edmonton-Meadowlark 32
27
29
10
2 Bob Maskell
Edmonton-Mill Creek 42
28
13
14
2 Gene Zwozdesky
Edmonton-Mill Woods
27
30
18
18
7 Joanne Autio
Edmonton-Riverview
23
28
31
16
2 Arif Khan
Edmonton-Rutherford
26
31
25
13
5 Kyle McLeod
Edmonton-South West 48
28
17
5
2 Matt Jeneroux
Edmonton-Strathcona
12
25
12
49 2 Rachel Notley
Edmonton-Whitemud 42
27
19
9
2 David Hancock
Fort McMurray-Conklin
35
39
15
10
- Doug Faulkner
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo
32
42
16
10
- Guy Boutilier
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
40
44
4
10
2 Shannon Stubbs
Grande Prairie-Smoky
34
49
5
11
1 Todd Loewen
Grande Prairie-Wapiti
40
41
5
10
1 Ethane Jarvis
Highwood
34
57
4
5
- Danielle Smith
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake
29
50
4
15
2 Kerry Towle
Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills
38
43
7
12
- Shayne Saskiw
Lacombe-Ponoka
34
50
5
9
2 Rod Fox
Leduc-Beaumont 43
34
8
12
3 George Rogers
Lesser Slave Lake
37
43
10
9
1 Darryl Boisson
Lethbridge-East
21
45
20
14
- Kent Prestage
Lethbridge-West
23
38
11
26
2 Kevin Kinahan
Little Bow
21
65
3
11
- Ian Donovan
Livingstone-Macleod
27
52
7
13
1 Pat Stier
Medicine Hat
13
49
24
13
1
Blake Pedersen
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills
25
65
1
9
-
Bruce Rowe
Peace River
35
43
6
16
-
Alan Forsyth
Red Deer-North
23
48
12
15
2
Randy Weins
Red Deer-South
21
47
17
13
2
Nathan Stephan
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre
29
54
5
12
-
Joe Anglin
Sherwood Park 41
31
9
10
9
Cathy Oleson
Spruce Grove-St. Albert 46
35
9
10
-
Doug Horner
St. Albert
33
34
12
10
11
James Burrows
Stony Plain 41
38
6
11
4
Ken Lemke
Strathcona-Sherwood Park 51
32
7
10
-
Dave Quest
Strathmore-Brooks
38
49
2
10
1
Alex Wychopen
Vermilion-Lloydminster
34
54
4
7
1
Danny Hozack
West Yellowhead
24
37
12
12
15
Stuart Taylor
Wetaskiwin-Camrose
41
44
6
10
1
Trevor Miller
Whitecourt-Ste. Anne
32
55
5
8
-
Maryann Chichak

Analyzing the toss ups (ridings projected to be within 5%)

Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater
Perhaps I should have put this riding in my list of races to watch? With recent polling suggesting the Tories have a bump in the polls in Northern Alberta, they will probably win ridings like this one, where they got a significant percentage of the vote (and where Wildrose didn't) in 2008. Especially considering this is a riding bordering Edmonton, it is probably more moderate and not Wildrose territory. I predict Tory incumbent Jeff Johnson will keep his seat. 
 
Battle River-Wainwright
I struggled with my decision here. I had this riding as a toss up in my last projection. After I factored in recent poll changes, the Tories got the edge in this riding. But, that didn't set well with my gut feeling. It's a fairly rural riding, and not too “northern” in character, as it is in the southern part of Northern Alberta.. While near Edmonton, it sits just outside of Edmonton's moderating influences. Incumbent Tory MLA Doug Griffiths did get a huge percentage (79%) in 2008, and he is a cabinet minister. But I think the Wildrose Party will get the edge here. 
 
Bonnyville-Cold Lake
This riding was won big time by Tory neophyte Genia Leskiw in 2008 with a massive 76% of the vote. However, she is a one term incumbent, and is not a cabinet minister. Her opponent, Ray Doonanco looks to be a credible opponent with some political experience. Now, this riding, while in rural Alberta may still back the Tories, as it has a moderate streak, having voted Liberal in the 1993 provincial election. But, I have to think Wildrose will win this. 
 
Calgary-Acadia
This is a semi-suburban Calgary riding, meaning it could be a riding that the Tories could hold on to. Their candidate is Jonathan Denis, a current cabinet minister. Wildrose didn't do so well here in 2008 due to the inclusion of another well known right wing candidate in the race (Craig Chandler). I think this will be one of the many Calgary ridings caught up in the Wildrose wave tomorrow.

Calgary-Buffalo
I had to take a second look at this riding, because, as a very urban, downtown riding, it didn't seem like the type of riding that will go Wildrose. And to add to that, the WRP candidate doesn't appear to be running a very good campaign. I think that while in most of Calgary, many Liberals will strategically vote Tory to stop Wildrose, it will be in Liberal ridings like this that Tories vote Liberal to stop Wildrose. Or at least, Liberals will not switch their vote.

Calgary-Cross
Long time incumbent Tory Yvonne Fritz may have held this riding for a long time, but she in trouble here. This suburban Calgary riding is in a suburban part of the city, which means it will be favourable to Wildrose. The Wildrose candidate is Hardyal Singh “Happy” Mann, a Sikh. He appears to be a very strong candidate. Let's hope racism doesn't play a factor in this riding.

Calgary-Elbow
Tory Premier Alison Redford looked like she was in trouble in her own riding for the entire campaign. Now however, I think with the Tories getting a bump in Calgary, she will be able to retain her seat.

Calgary-Mountain View
Word is the Liberals are still strong here and are expected to win this urban Calgary riding. I don't think the demographics are right here for a Wildrose pick up, and so I'm going with Liberal incumbent David Swann to win this.

Calgary-Northern Hills
This is a newly created riding in the northern suburban part of Calgary. The Wildrose Party are running a strong candidate in Prasad Panda against one term Tory incumbent Teresa Woo-Paw. Panda should win here, and racism shouldn't play a factor because both candidates are visible minorities.

Edmonton-Decore
A really tough call in this suburban Edmonton riding. Previously a Liberal-PC race, this riding is now a 3 way race with the Wildrose factored in. As the anti-Wildrose voters will have difficulty coalescing between one candidate, Wildrose candidate Chris Bataluk I predict will come up the middle to take this riding. This area doesn't seem to be as hostile to the Wildrose, giving the Alberta Alliance 8% of the vote here in 2004, and it is a suburban part of the city. The Tory incumbent, Jill Sarich is a strong MLA, but she is a one term incumbent.

Edmonton-Ellerslie
At first glance, I thought that this riding might go for the Wildrose. It is after a suburban riding. However, it is a bit different then most Edmonton suburban ridings. While the Wildrose/Alberta Alliance have had good numbers here before (well, better than average), there seems to be a cap at how many voters in this riding are willing to vote for a right wing party such as Wildrose. After all federally, this was Liberal David Kilgour's area during the Reform Party days of the 1990s. Apparently the Liberals and NDP are not running serious campaigns here, and so many of their supporters will vote Tory this time to stop the Wildrose.

Edmonton-Gold Bar
This one was really a tough call, but I'll have to give the Tories the edge here. Their candidate is David Dorward, who ran for the Tories back in 2008 and also ran for mayor in 2010. He is a well known commodity in Edmonton, and therefore has the edge. The NDP is also running a strong campaign in this riding, and might be able to pull off an upset here. However, numbers are not in their favour, as they have never done well in this seat provincially. But, the NDP does hold this area federally, so don't be surprised if the NDP does win this.

Edmonton-Manning
This seat is held by one-term Tory incumbent Peter Sandhu. This is a suburban seat, but one that doesn't have an overwhelming right wing vote, and therefore it will be difficult for the Wildrose to pick up. Sandhu should be able to keep this seat.

Edmonton-McClung
According to my model, this is looking like a close three-way race. This is a suburban, somewhat conservative seat in the southwest of the city, but has backed the Liberals in the past. In fact, the Liberal candidate, Mo Elsalhy is a former MLA for this riding. Wildrose has previously been average here, meaning they should get about the city-wide average of the party. This gives one-term Tory MLA David Xiao the edge.

Edmonton-Meadowlark
This is the seat of Liberal leader Raj Sherman, who was elected in 2008 as a Tory. That made predicting what will happen in this seat very difficult. This seat has voted Liberal in the past, but all signs are pointing to Sherman's defeat at this point. So that asks the question, who will win then? Between the Tories and the Wildrose, the Tories have the stronger candidate in former MLA Bob Maskell.

Edmonton-Mill Woods
Mill Woods, in Edmonton's southeast end looks like it might go Wildrose this election. Why? Well, first off, they've had slightly above average results here in the past. Secondly, this is a rather suburban riding. But most importantly, the incumbent Carl Benito lost his Tory nomination race and is running as an independent. He is a controversial person, so he might not siphon that many votes from his Tory competition, but it should be enough to allow Wildrose candidate Joanne Autio to win the race.

Edmonton-Riverview
This was another difficult riding to predict. The riding has been Liberal since it was created, but its popular incumbent, and former Liberal leader Kevin Taft is retiring. This has left the seat open, and vulnerable as the Liberals sink in the polls. I do know the NDP is targeting this riding, and will certainly hurt the Liberal's chances here. According to ChangeAlberta though, Liberal candidate Arif Khan still holds the edge here over the NDP candidate. Vote splitting might cause the Tories or the Wildrose to win this riding, but I don't think either party has the votes in this riding to win.

Edmonton-Rutherford
This seat has previously seen many close races between the Liberals and the Tories. What better riding for the Wildrose to win, by coming up the middle? The race between the Tories and Liberals is an '08 re-match between current Tory MLA Fred Horne and former Liberal MLA Rick Miller. With both parties down in the polls, it should allow Wildrose candidate Kyle McLeod to come up the middle and win.

Fort McMurray-Conklin
This open seat might end up rather close, as it is a race between two strong candidates. It will be interesting to see how this riding, which is full of people from out of province will vote. Right wing parties have traditionally done poorer in the area. Having said that, with Wildrose ahead in the polls and running former Wood Buffalo mayor Doug Faulkner, they should be able to win the riding.

Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
This riding proves to be a tough fight between two credible candidates. It's an open seat (vacated by former Premier Ed Stelmach), so it's anyone's guess who will win. It's just outside Edmonton, so it might be moderated by it, but it also has a large rural portion that will back Wildrose. I think I feel more comfortable picking the Wildrose to win this seat.

Grande Prairie-Wapiti
The math shows this as a close race, with incumbent Tory MLA Wayne Drysdale having a small edge in this riding. However, I think he might lose. He is just a one term incumbent, and the Wildrose candidate will of course have a great opportunity to win it. But in analyzing past voting patterns, it appears that both Grande Prairie ridings normally vote very similarly. With the other Grande Prairie riding (Grande Prairie-Smoky) projected to go WRP, I will have to say this one will as well.

Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills
This is one of those ridings that went Liberal in 1993, indicating that it has a progressive streak that might mean the Wildrose Party could lose this seat. However, when the Alberta Alliance ran here in 2004, they got more than twice the provincial average in support, showing that they have a base of strength here. I predict Wildrose candidate Shayne Saskiw will be the victor here.

Sherwood Park
This open seat appears to be quite the battle. You have the former mayor of Stratchona County Cathy Oleson running for the Tories (who lost her bid for re-election in 2010) against a young Wildrose candidate in Garnett Genuis. Oleson gets the advantage in my books due to her experience. Plus right wing independent candidate James Ford is running, and is well known in the area for his near-attempts to win a seat in federal parliament. He is sure to keep Genuis from winning.

St. Albert
I want to give the Wildrose candidate, James Burrows the edge in this riding. He has the more experience in this open race, over Tory Stephen Khan, as Burrows is a city councillor. That doesn't mean the Tories might not win this seat, as Wildrose has only done average here in the past, while the riding has a significant Liberal base that has to go somewhere. Both the Liberals and the NDP do not have strong campaigns.

Stony Plain
This may be an open seat, but that doesn't mean that the Wildrose Party will necessarily pick it up. It's an Edmonton suburban riding that will no doubt be moderated by its influence. But most importantly, the Tories have the stronger candidate here in Stony Plain mayor Ken Lemke. I predict the Tories hold the seat.

Wetaskiwin-Camrose
This riding may only be close because of the 65% support that Tory incumbent Verlyn Olson received in 2008. However, he is up against a formidable opponent in Wildroser Trevor Miller, a county councillor. Olson is just a one term incumbent, and may be perceived as a moderate because he ran for the federal Progressive Conservative party at one point. I predict Miller wins. 


Totals chart:
Changes do not add up because I had projected four ties last time.
  

Friday, April 20, 2012

2012 Alberta election analysis - Rest of Alberta


Guide map.
With the Alberta provincial election just three days away, I have to take a look at some races to watch outside Calgary and Edmonton to supplement my previous posts of the races to watch in those cities. Polls have consistently shown that the Wildrose Party has a large lead outside of these cities, but that doesn't mean there'll be a few races to keep an eye on Monday.

It seems each pollster has divided the province differently when the publish their breakdowns. Some divide the province outside the two cities into three regions (North, Central and South), some just 2 regions (north and south), while others just lump in all the non Calgary and Edmonton bits into one breakdown. This has proven to be rather problematic in trying to determine how things are going outside the cities. Especially noting that Northern Alberta votes (somewhat) differently than southern Alberta.

Let's take a look at some recent polls

Abacus (April 18-19)
Party North Central South Total Rural
Wildrose Party 45 54 52 52
Prog. Cons. 31 27 27 28
Liberal 11 5 3 6
NDP 10 9 17 11

Think HQ Public Affairs (April 17-18)

Party Total Rural
Wildrose Party 48
Prog. Cons. 31
Liberal 5
NDP 12

Forum Research (April 16)

Party North Central South
Wildrose Party 41 50 49
Prog. Cons. 32 30 26
Liberal 5 6 8
NDP 19 10 10

Leger (April 13-16)

Party Total Rural
Wildrose Party 49
Prog. Cons. 34
Liberal 6
NDP 8


What these polls show us is that the Wildrose Party is polling around 50% outside Calgary and Edmonton, almost 10 points higher than the provincial average. We also see that they are polling better in more conservative southern and central Alberta than in northern Alberta, between 5 and 10 points better. Meanwhile the Tories are polling around 30% in the region, about where they stand in the province as a whole. Their support is contrary to the Wildrose, as they are better in the north than in the south, but even still, they are around 10 points behind the WRP there. In third place is the NDP, which appears to have moved well ahead of the Liberals for third position in rural Alberta. Forum Research shows them strong in the north, while Abacus shows them strong in the south. Not sure which is true, at this point. Their average appears to be around 10%, which is where they are at provincially as a whole. Finally the Liberals are in single digits in the region, and will not be a factor anywhere in my opinion. They are well below the provincial average in the region, perhaps as much as 5% less, which is half of the 10% they are at in province wide polls.

Now that we know where the party's stand, let's take a look at some races to watch.

Northern Alberta
With the Wildrose Party with a comfortable lead in the polls in the north, it's safe to say they will win most of the seats in the region. So, the seats we should be watching will be those where their strength is weaker. But first, let's take a look at some open seats in the north.

Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock
This riding is located northwest of Edmonton, and went strongly for the Tories in the last election. The retiring incumbent is Ken Kowalski who secured 70% of the vote in 2008. If he were running again, those numbers would probably be enough to ensure his re-election. However, the seat is now open for a Wildrose pick up. They are running well known columnist Link Byfield, who also happens to be a “Senator-in-waiting”, having been elected by Albertans back in 2004 to sit in the Canadian Senate (he has yet to be appointed, as he is still waiting for an opening). Byfield is running against Maureen Kubinec, a local county councillor. The Wildrose Party didn't run a candidate here in 2008, but the Alberta Alliance ran a candidate in 2004 that won 9% of the vote. This will be a very interesting race to see if this seat will be caught up in the Wildrose wave on Monday.

Fort McMurray-Conklin
The rapid growth of Fort McMurray has resulted in the previous riding, Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo to be divided in half. The Tories won Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo in 2008 with 63% of the vote. The MLA elected was Guy Boutilier, who has since switched parties to Wildrose and is running for the WRP in the now smaller version of Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo, next door. This means that this new seat of Fort McMurray-Conklin will be open. The Wildrose candidate is Doug Faulkner, the former mayor of Wood Buffalo, Fort McMurray's municipality. The Tory candidate is another municipal politician, Don Scott who has served on the region's municipal council for just a year and a half. It seems to be that this will be a very easy pick up for the Wildrose Party. For the record, the WRP did not run a candidate in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo in 2008 and the Alberta Alliance got just 3% of the vote in 2004.

Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
On the east side of Edmonton lies this riding, represented by former Tory Premier Ed Stelmach. Stelmach is retiring, opening this seat up. Stelmach won this seat by a huge margin in 2008, getting 78% of the vote. The Wildrose Party did not even field a candidate in that election. The Tories are running Stratchona County councillor Jacquie Fenske to replace Stelmach. The Wildrose Party is also running a strong candidate in Shannon Stubbs, a former Reform Party staffer. While the Tories did very well here in the 2008 election, the Alberta Alliance ran a strong campaign here in 2004, getting 11% of the vote. In that election, Stelmach who was yet to be Premier, won just 48% of the vote. This is sure to be another exciting race to watch.

Grande Prairie-Smoky
Tory MLA Mel Knight will be retiring, creating an open seat in Grande Prairie-Smoky, in the province's northwest. Knight secured 59% of the vote here in 2008, well ahead of a fractured opposition, including the WRP candidate that won a strong 13% of the votes. The Tories are running a strong candidate in Grande Prairie County reeve Everett McDonald. Wildrose will be running local farmer Todd Loewen. Due to this being an open seat, I think the Wildrose Party will have the edge here, despite the experience disadvantage of their candidate.

Sherwood Park
On the east side of Edmonton lies the suburban riding of Sherwood Park which is being vacated by Tory MLA Iris Evans. The Tories hope to keep the seat with their candidate, former Strathcona County mayor Cathy Oleson. Oleson might be a bit of a political liability however, having been on the losing end of her mayoral race back in 2010. Oleson has a lot of experience however, compared to her main rival, Wildrose candidate Garnett Genius, who is just 24. However, Genius has some political experience, having interned in the Prime Minister's office. In 2008, this was a strong Tory riding, as Evans was elected with 63% of the vote. She'd probably be re-elected if she were running again. However, the seat is open, and it's anyone's guess who will win at this point. It is a weaker riding for the Wildrose however. They didn't run a candidate here in 2008, and they won just 3% of the vote in 2004 as the Alberta Alliance.

St. Albert
St. Albert is another suburban Edmonton riding, with a past of electing some Liberals, and even an NDPer. Retiring Tory incumbent Ken Allred won 54% of the vote here in 2008, against the Liberal incumbent, Jack Flaherty who won 36% of the vote. With the Liberals down and out in Alberta this election, they are unlikely to win this seat back. Plus, reports tell us there Liberal campaign there is non-existent. So, this looks like another WRP-PC fight. The Tories are running local businessman Stephen Khan. Wildrose is running former St. Albert city councillor James Burrows. With experience on their side, and having an open seat, I like the Wildrose's chances in this riding. Their only thing holding them back is having no candidate in 2008, and just a 4% showing under the Alberta Alliance banner in 2004.

Stony Plain
Stony Plain is an exurban riding, located to the west of Edmonton. The Tory incumbent, Fred Lindsay is retiring, making this an open seat. Lindsay won a strong 63% of the vote back in 2008, but without an incumbent, the Tories could be in trouble here. They are running a strong candidate however, in former Stony Plain mayor Ken Lemke. Wildrose is running local businessman Hal Tagg. Wildrose won 6% of the vote here in 2008, one of their better districts in the region. However, the Tories have a strong candidate, and a strong base of support in this riding. It's going to be another interesting race to watch.

Vermilion-Lloydminster
This riding, located east of Edmonton on the Saskatchewan border is our final open seat in Alberta's north. The outgoing Tory MLA, Lloyd Snelgrove won a huge 81% of the vote back in 2008. The Tories are running former Lloydminster city councillor Richard Starke. Wildrose is running local farmer Danny Hozack. The WRP didn't run a candidate here in 2008, but it was one of their better ridings in the province in 2004 where they finished second with 26% of the vote. There is a strong conservative base in this riding, and with it now opened up, it looks like Hozack will have the edge.

Other races to watch:
With the Wildrose Party expected to sweep the region, our focus lies on the ridings where they might not win.

Battle River-Wainwright
Battle River-Wainwright is arguably the strongest strictly rural Tory seat in northern Alberta. Their incumbent is Doug Griffiths who won this seat in 2008 with a massive 79% of the vote. The question is, how many of these voters are conservative voters, and how many are Griffiths voters. He was certainly strengthened by a lack of a Wildrose candidate in 2008. In 2004 when the Alberta Alliance ran, Griffiths received a still strong 65% of the vote, while the AA finished 2nd with 15%. The Wildrose Party is running a strong candidate in Dave Nelson, a local rancher and school trustee.

Leduc-Beaumont
Leduc-Beaumont is a suburban riding located on the south side of Edmonton. The riding may be moderated by Edmonton's sphere of influence, giving the Tories a boost in this riding. Their incumbent is George Rogers who won 65% of the vote in the riding's predecessor, Leduc-Beaumont-Devon. Wildrose on the other hand won just 7%. The WRP will be running businessman Dave Stasiewich. His chances in this riding will all depend on how well the party does in Edmonton's suburbs.

Spruce Grove-St. Albert
If the Tories win one riding in northern Alberta outside of Edmonton, it will be this suburban Edmonton seat. The incumbent for the riding is Doug Horner, the leader of the party's right wing. Horner ran for the leadership of the Tories, but lost to Alison Redford. I predict that right wing voters here will be less tempted to vote Wildrose because they will be comfortable with a strong MLA like Horner. Horner also did well in the last election in the riding's predecessor of Spruce Grove-Sturgeon-St. Albert where he won 61% of the vote. Wildrose didn't even run a candidate. When the Alberta Alliance did run a candidate in 2004 they won just 5% of the vote. The WRP will be running Travis Hughes, a Certified Engineering Technologist.

Stratchona-Sherwood Park
Strathcona-Sherwood Park is another suburban Edmonton riding that the Tories have a good chance of retaining. Their candidate is incumbent Dave Quest who won the predecessor riding of Strathcona with 66% of the vote in 2008. Wildrose did not field a candidate, and the Alberta Alliance won just 3% of the vote here in 2004. The Wildrose Party is running Paul Nemetchek, a railway signals and communication technician. If the WRP wins this seat, than it will be a terrible night for the Tories.

West Yellowhead
West Yellowhead, nestled along the BC border will be a race to watch just because it is the upstart Alberta Party's best chance of winning a seat. The centrist Alberta Party is led by former Hinton mayor Glenn Taylor. He is also the party's candidate in this riding. Taylor was excluded from the debates, despite the party currently holding a seating in the Legislative Assembly. They are usually included in most polls, and are usually around the 2% mark. Taylor's exclusion from the debate will in all likelihood kill his chances of picking up this seat, no matter how strong his campaign is here. The only silver lining for him is that this is probably one of the more left leaning rural ridings in the province (if you can call it that). It did vote NDP in the 1980s and went Liberal in 1993. The combined left of centre vote in this riding in 2008 was 42%, and Taylor will have to win almost all of that to win the riding. That will be near impossible with both the Liberals and the NDP fielding candidates. Now, Taylor may also attract some Tory votes, weakening their incumbent Robin Campbell who secured 54% of the vote here in the last election. This may allow the Wildrose candidate, forester Stuart Taylor to come up the middle and win. The WRP however won just 4% of the votes here in 2008.


Southern and Central Alberta
Southern and Central Alberta will be Wildrose country on Monday, and you will be hard pressed to find a riding in the region that won't go WRP. In my view, with Wildrose under performs in the region, there may be up to three ridings that they could lose:

Banff-Cochrane
Perhaps the weakest riding in the southern Alberta for the Wildrose Party is Banff-Cochrane. The party did not run a candidate in 2008 and the Alberta Alliance won just 6% of the vote here in 2004. However, the riding will be an open seat, as Tory MLA Janis Tarchuk will be vacating the seat. This riding also has a large left wing base, as the combined Liberal-NDP-Green vote from 2008 totaled 49%, about the same as Tarchuk received. It's a remote possibility that the Liberals or the NDP could come up the middle and take this, but that's probably a pipe dream for either party (for the record, the Liberals appear to have the better shot of the two parties). The Tories hope to retain the seat with their candidate, master electrician Ron Casey. Wildrose is running rancher Tom Copithorne. I would have to give Copithorne the edge in this riding at this point, but it could prove to be one of the election night surprises.

Lethbridge-East
Lethrbidge-East has been only red dot in a sea of blue in southern Alberta in every election since 1993. That is the Liberals have won this riding in every election since 1993. The current MLA is Bridget Pastoor who was elected as a Liberal in 2008 with 42% of the vote. However, she switched parties to the Tories last year and will be running for re-election as one. The question for this riding is, is this a Liberal seat, or is this a riding willing to vote for a centrist candidate no matter the stripe? If it's the latter, it will help Pastoor in her battle against the more right wing Wildrose Party. The Liberals, after all are polling in the basement in southern Alberta, and therefore are unlikely to win this seat. But if they do get a significant proportion of the vote, they could ensure enough of a vote split to allow the Wildrose Party to win. The NDP also has a strong presence in the city which could further enhance Wildroses' chances here. Wildrose is running Kent Prestage here, a local businessman and public servant. The party won 6% of the vote here in 2008.

Lethbridge-West
The best chance for the NDP to win a seat outside of its base in Edmonton is here in Lethbridge-West, home of the University of Lethbridge. Unlike Lethbridge-East however, Lethbridge-West has never elected a Liberal since the city was divided into two ridings in 1971. One poll shows the NDP at 17% in southern Alberta, no doubt buoyed by the strong candidacy of their candidate Shannon Phillips, a researcher for the Alberta Federation of Labour. Her campaign was recently boosted by the endorsement by former Lethbridge mayor Bob Tarleck. However, the NDP only won 10% of the vote here in 2008, so they will have to count on some Liberals votes in order to win. The Liberals won 35% of the vote here in 2008 for the record. The Tories may not be a factor in this riding, as their MLA Greg Weadick won just 44% of the vote in 2008, and will have that number decrease substantially if polls are to be believed. The Wildrose Party is running Kevin Kinahan, a school principal in nearby Taber. Vote splitting will sure help Kinahan's chances in this riding. The Wildrose won 7% of the vote in 2008, and will have to increase that to win the race.

Other open seats:
With their high polling numbers, it doesn't appear likely that the Wildrose Party will lose any of the open seats in southern and central Alberta.

Wildrose candidate Bruce Rowe, the mayor of Beiseker, will be the most likely victor in rural Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills where the party is benefiting from a strong 21% 2nd place finish in 2008. They will also have the best odds of winning Lacombe-Ponoka. They are running insurance sales manager Rod Fox there. The WRP won just 6% of the votes there in 2008, but the Alberta Alliance won 18% in 2004 and were in 2nd place. The race in Cardston-Taber-Warner, in the heart of Mormon Country on the US border, won't even be close. This was the only seat that the Alberta Alliance won in 2004, and the WRP barely lost in 2008 by just 49 votes. They are running Gary Bikman, the Deputy Mayor of Stirling as their candidate. The race probably won't be close in Highwood either where Wildrose leader Danielle Smith is running. Wildrose won 12% of the vote in this exurban Calgary seat in 2008. While not the strongest support, you'd have to think that their leader would win in the heart of Wildrose country. Also in the heart of Wildrose country is the riding of Little Bow where Wildrose won 23% of the vote in 2008, one of their best finished. There is no doubt they'll win this open seat with numbers like that. They are running Vulcan County councillor Ian Donovan. Finally, the riding of Medicine Hat will also be vacated. For an urban riding, Medicine Hat is quite conservative having never elected a Liberal since 1930. Its urban nature could prevent a Wildrose victory, so it might still be a riding to watch. They are running businessman Blake Pedersen against another businessman, Darren Hirsch of the PCs. Wildrose won 7% of the vote in Medicine Hat in 2008.