By-elections

Analysis of past and upcoming by-elections including riding profiles and poll maps

Labrador

Date: May 13, 2013
Outgoing MP: Peter Penashue (Conservative)
Reason for resignation: Resigned following allegations of irregularities in campaign spending (March 14, 2013)

Party
2000 (Trans)
2004
2005 (by)
2006
2008
2011
2013 (by)
Liberal
69.0
62.2
51.5
50.5
70.3
39.1
48.0
Conservative
18.6*
15.8
32.3
39.7
8.0
39.8
32.4
NDP
12.4
9.6
9.9
9.1
17.8
19.8
19.2
Green
-
2.0
0.6
0.7
3.9
1.3
0.4
Others
-
10.4
5.7
-
-
-
-
Swing

+1.5
-14.1
-18.3**
+5.5
+31.5
TBD
Turnout
52.6
44.8
53.4
58.0
38.6
53.9
58.8
* Combination of Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative
** Swing calculated from previous general election

 
2011 results map

 

Calgary Centre

Date: November 26, 2012
Outgoing MP: Lee Richardson (Conservative)
Reason for resignation: Accepted position with Alberta Premier Alison Redford (May 30, 2012)
Party
2000 (Trans)
2004
2006
2008
2011
2012 (by)
Conservative
80.9*
51.2
55.4
55.6
57.7
36.9
Liberal
13.2
29.9
19.2
17.9
17.5
32.7
NDP
3.4
8.5
13.3
9.0
14.9
3.8
Green
N/A
9.9
11.7
16.6
9.9
25.7
Others
2.5**
0.5
0.5
0.9
-
0.9
Swing

-23.2
+7.6
+0.4
+1.4
-18.0
Turnout
55.2
57.5
62.0
53.2
55.5
29.5
* Combination of Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative
** Includes Greens

2011 results map.

Durham

Date: November 26, 2012
Outgoing MP: Bev Oda (Conservative)
Reason for resignation: No official reason (Oda had been removed from Cabinet amidst controversy) (July 31, 2012)
Party
2000 (Trans)
2004
2006
2008
2011
2012 (by)
Conservative
49.9*
40.7
47.0
54.1
54.5
50.7
Liberal
44.1***
38.3
30.0
23.0
17.9
17.3
NDP
4.9
15.1
17.3
10.4
21.1
26.3
Green
N/A
4.1
4.6
11.4
5.4
4.1
Others
1.1**
1.8
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.7
Swing

-1.7
+7.3
+7.1
-5.2
-4.5
Turnout
57.4
64.2
69.3
60.5
64.6
35.9
* Combination of Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative
** Includes Greens
*** The Liberals would have won the seat
2011 results map

Victoria

Date: November 26, 2012
Outgoing MP: Denise Savoie (NDP)
Reason for resignation: Health reasons (August 31, 2012)
Party
2000 (Trans)
2004
2006
2008
2011
2012 (by)
NDP
13.1
31.1
38.5
44.6
50.8
37.2
Conservative
26.0
21.8
24.6
27.6
23.6
14.5
Liberal
42.7
35.0
27.5
16.9
14.0
13.1
Green
N/A
11.7
8.1
10.5
11.6
34.3
Others
8.2**
0.4
1.3
0.4
-
1.0
Swing

-12.8
+7.5
+1.6
+5.1
-18.2
Turnout
62.4
68.4
71.0
67.5
69.1
44.0
* Combination of Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative
** Includes Greens

2011 results map
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Toronto—Danforth

Date: May 19, 2012
Outgoing MP: Jack Layton (NDP)
Reason for resignation: Death due to unspecified form of cancer (Aug. 22, 2011)
Results history
Party
2000 (Trans)
2004
2006
2008
2011
2012 (by)
NDP
27.6
46.3
48.4
44.8
60.8
59.4
Liberal
51.9
41.3
34.2
29.4
17.6
28.5
Conservative
15.7*
6.2
9.9
11.6
14.3
5.4
Green
N/A
5.4
7.1
13.2
6.5
4.7
Others
4.8**
0.8
0.3
1.0
0.8
1.3
Swing

+14.6
+4.6
+0.6
+13.9
-6.1
Turnout
56.3
64.1
67.7
60.9
64.9
43.6
* Combination of Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative
** Includes Greens



2012 by-election results

















The NDP won every single poll in the riding in 2011