tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-51903787704236582022024-03-14T01:56:19.731-04:00Canadian Election AtlasEarl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.comBlogger204125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-47219613752408179552017-11-21T14:04:00.001-05:002017-11-21T14:04:40.965-05:00Mount Pearl North by-election preview
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Voters in the riding
of Mount Pearl North head to the polls today to elect a new member of
the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly. The riding has only
been vacant since October 11, when its MHA, Steve Kent resigned to
become the Chief Administrative Officer of the City of Mount Pearl.
Kent was a member of the Progressive Conservative Party, and had been
Deputy Prime Minister of the province under the Premiership of Kathy
Dunderdale from 2014 to 2015. He was also mayor of Mount Pearl from
2003 to 2007, prior to being elected to the House. Mount Pearl North
will be the first by-election held in the province since the Liberals
swept into power in 2015, when they won a landslide majority
government, capturing 31 of province's 40 seats. Mount Pearl North
was one of only seven seats the Tories had won in the election.
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<b><i>Profile</i></b><br />
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Mount Pearl North is
a suburban riding that covers the northern half of the City of Mount
Pearl, the second largest city in the province, and the third largest
municipality (after St. John's and the <i>Town</i> of Conception Bay
South), located west of St. John's. The riding also covers two small
subdivisions in St. John's itself: Brookfield Plains and Edison,
which are made up of newly-built homes. The riding is shaped like an
upside-down “U”, surrounding the central part of Mount Pearl. It
covers the older part of the city in the east (mostly built before
1980), and newer subdivisions in the west and north which were mainly
built in the 1980s, and since the 1990s respectively. The riding is
more wealthy than the rest of of the province, with the average
income being in the mid-$30,000 range (compared to $27,000 for the
province) and is overwhelmingly White, with most residents being of
English or Irish descent. </div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">MHAs since 1956</td></tr>
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The riding is
generally a safe Tory seat; it has elected Progressive Conservatives
continuously since 1971 except for a by-election in 1988 which
elected Liberal Eric Gullage and the subsequent provincial election
in 1989 when he was re-elected (though, at the time the riding, then
known as “Waterford-Kenmount” also covered what is now the riding
of St. John's West). Gullage lost the seat in 1993 to Harvey Hodder,
making the riding only one of 16 ridings to elect a Tory MHA that
election. Hodder was re-elected in the new riding of Waterford Valley
in 1996, a riding with similar borders to today's Mount Pearl North.
The riding was one of only nine Tory seats won in 1996, with Hodder
winning the seat by a nine-point margin. Hodder continued to
represent the seat until Kent's election in 2007, winning increased
majorities in 1999 (13 points) and 2003 (53 points!). Kent's first
election win was a huge win, thanks to the coattails of the very
popular Premier Danny Williams, winning the seat by a whopping 76
point margin over his Liberal opponent. He was re-elected in 2011 by
a 54 point margin over the NDP candidate, and faced stiffer
competition in 2015 against Mount Pearl mayor (Kent's successor)
Randy Simms, whom he beat by nine points.
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In the 2015
election, Kent won most of the polls on election day, but Simms won a
scattering of polls across the riding. Kent's best neighbourhood was
the new Brookfield Plains subdivision, where he won 59% of the
election day vote. Simms only won one neighbourhood, that of Masonic
Park which covers a nursing home which has since been shut down. </div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Results by neighbourhood from the 2015 federal and provincial elections</td></tr>
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In
the federal election, the Tories were a non-factor, as the race was
between incumbent NDP Member of Parliament Ryan Cleary and his
Liberal opponent, Seamus O'Regan in the greater riding of St. John's
South—Mount Pearl. O'Regan defeated Cleary, and easily won the
election day polls corresponding to Mount Pearl North 60% to 35%.
O'Regan won all but two polls in the area, with his best
neighbourhood being Masonic Park (67%) and his worst neighbouhood
being the Old part of the city, where he still won 55% of the vote
(to Cleary's 41%).
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<i><b>Outlook</b></i></h3>
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The front-runner in this race has to be the Tory candidate, Jim
Lester, a farmer who owns and operates “Lester's Farm”, which is
located on the southeastern border of the riding. He was the Tory
candidate in the neighbouring Mount Pearl Southlands seat in the 2015
election, which he lost narrowly. The Liberal candidate in the
by-election is St. John's businessman Jim Burton, who had previously
sought the federal Liberal nomination in St. John's South—Mount
Pearl, but withdrew in favour of O'Regan. The NDP candidate is Nicole
Kieley, who is the executive director for the Newfoundland and
Labrador Sexual Assault Crisis and Prevention Centre. There is a
fourth candidate, businessman Hudson Stratton who is running as an
independent.
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Since winning the 2015 election, the popularity of the governing
Liberals took a huge hit in 2016 after the government introduced a
number of austerity measures, including the closing of most of the
province's libraries. However, Liberal Party support has rebounded,
but it is not back to where it was at the time of the last election.
Both the Tories and the NDP have benefited from the Liberal's
unpopularity, but Tory support is now back to where it was at the
election, and the NDP, which currently has no leader is not fairing
that much better. Needless to say though, I do not expect the Tories
to lose this ordinarily safe-Tory seat.
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Polls close at 8:00pm local time, which is 6:30 Eastern Time.
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Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com28tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-24046619527055264232017-11-05T15:15:00.000-05:002017-11-05T15:15:14.417-05:002017 Quebec municipal elections today
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Municipal
elections are being held across the province of Quebec's 1,110
municipalities today. Voters will elect mayors, and municipal
councillors and in some municipalities, borough mayors and borough
councillors as well. Additionally, 16 of Quebec's 87 regional county
municipalities are having direct elections for their prefect (the
leader of the county council). In many of Quebec's municipalities-
including 12 of its 13 largest cities, local political parties will
be contesting for seats on their respective councils. Elections in
those cities often focus on parties trying get a majority of seats on
their councils.
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Individual parties in Quebec municipalities are often short lived
operations, and often are groups pledging support behind one
particular mayoral candidate. This can easily be seen in their names,
such as “Équipe Denis Coderre pour <span lang="en-US">Montréal</span>”
(Team Denis Coderre for Montreal). In fact, most parties have “Équipe
so-and-so” as part of their names (in this post, I usually drop
these distinctions for the sake brevity, but some party names are
just “Équipe so-and-so”, so I can't always avoid the matter).
Anyway, when parties are unsuccessful they will often disband as soon
as the election is over, and new ones will be created for the next.
Municipal parties can sometimes be ideological, but are often just
supporters of a particular mayoral candidate. None have official ties
to federal or provincial parties, but many often draw their support
from the same voters.
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<b>Montreal</b></div>
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Most eyes will be on the mayoral and council race in Quebec's largest
city of Montreal, which looks to have an exciting race, if polls are
to be believed.
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<span style="font-weight: normal;">In the 2013 election, former
federal Liberal cabinet minister Denis Coderre was elected mayor of
the city, winning just 32% of the vote, in a four way race. Coderred
defeated future federal Liberal cabinet minister M</span><span lang="en-US">élanie
Joly (who won 26.5% of the vote), city councillor Richard Bergeron
(25.5%) and economist Marcel Côté (12.8%). Coderre's party, the
</span><span lang="en-US"><i>Équipe Denis Coderre pour Montréal</i></span></div>
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<span lang="en-US">(Team Denis Coderre for Montreal) won a plurality
of seats on council, 26 of 65, seven short of a majority. Even
though he finished in third place on the mayoral ballot, Bergeron's
party, </span><span lang="en-US"><i>Projet Montréal </i></span><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;">(Project
Montreal) became the main opposition party on council, winning 20
seats. Côté's party, Coalition Montréal won six seats, and Joly's
</span></span><span lang="en-US"><i>Vraie changement pour Montréal
</i></span><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;">(True
Change for Montreal) won just four seats. Local borough parties and
independents won the remaining eight seats. The 2013 election marked
the beginning of a new era in Montreal civic politics. From 2002 to
2012 Montreal had been led by Gérald Tremblay, who had to resign
following being implicated in the Charbonneau Commission. With his
resignation, Tremblay and his centrist Union Montreal party
dissolved, making way for Coderre and his new centrist party's
election victory. </span></span></div>
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<span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"> </span></span>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">2013 mayoral election results by borough</td></tr>
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<span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;">Since
the 2013 election, a series of defections to Coderre's party would
result in his party forming a majority on council earlier this year.
Coderre's party now has 36 seats going into today's election. The
opposition Projet Montréal has 19 seats, but has since firmly become
Montreal's main opposition party. The other parties have dissolved
into small rumps to the point that Vrai changement is not even
running a mayoral candidate and Coalition Montréal's mayoral
candidate dropped out of the campaign and endorsed Projet Montréal's
mayoral candidate, Valérie Plante. </span></span>
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<span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;">Usually
incumbent mayors are re-elected in a cakewalk in their sophomore
elections, but with Quebec's unique municipal party system means that
this is not always the case. Coderre is facing a stiff challenge from
the very formidable Valérie Plante, who has been a city councillor
since 2013 and was elected leader of the left-wing Projet Montréal
in 2015. She was elected following the departure of the party's
founder, Richard Bergeron who left the party and would later join
Coderre's party. Throughout the beginning of the campaign, Coderre
had a decent lead over Plante in polls, but she has caught up to him,
and now the race is neck-and-neck. CROP's last poll, released October
30 gave Plante a two point lead (39% to 37%) over Coderre, with 17%
undecided. </span></span>
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<span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;">One
reason for Coderre's polling troubles has been that he is seen as
being arrogant, corrupt, authoritarian and divisive, perhaps a throw
back to the day's of Montreal's most notorious mayor, Jean Drapeau.
To fight back, Coderre has attacked Projet Montréal's financial
plan, pie-in-the-sky like promises and Plante's lack of experience.</span></span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Map of Montreal's city council districts used in 2013. The 2017 map saw little change.</td></tr>
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<span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;">In
total, Montreal City Council is made up of 65 members, which includes
a mayor, elected city wide, 18 borough mayors elected from 18 of the
19 boroughs (Ville-Marie has no borough mayor) and 46 councillors
elected from 46 districts across the city. In addition, Montreal
voters will be electing 38 separate borough councillor positions.
These separate borough councillors are not members of city council,
but often represent the same parties. Some boroughs have their city
councillors as also borough councillors, and therefore do not have
separate borough councillors. Candidates for mayor of the city often
have a </span></span><span lang="en-US"><i>colistier </i></span><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;">(a
“running mate”) who run for council in their place. If a mayoral
candidate wins, then the colistier is elected to council (providing
that the colistier also wins their seat); if they lose, then the
mayoral candidate can still sit on council, as long as their
colistier won their seat. </span></span>
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<span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;">In
2013, Coderre's main base of support came from the more suburban
parts of the city, especially the north end, an area he represented
as Member of Parliament. Joly's personal support came from the urban
south end of the city, an area of the city where she managed to win
five boroughs, but where her party had won just one actual council
seat (and not even her own, where her </span></span><span lang="en-US"><i>colistier
</i></span><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;">lost).
Bergeron and his party did well in the east end of the city,
especially in the notoriously left wing Pleateau Borough. The 2017
election thus begins with the battle lines drawn, and the two main
parties will have to fight over the south and central parts of the
city where Joly did well. In 2013, Projet Montréal won many of the
council seats in this area, but they will need to win almost all of
them to get at least a plurality on city council.</span></span></div>
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<b>Quebec City</b></div>
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<span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Quebec's
provincial capital has been led by mayor Régis Labeaume since a
mayoral by-election was held in 2007 following the death of the
previous mayor, Andrée Boucher. Labeaume is extremely popular, and
polls show that he is expected to win once again. His party, the
conservative </span></span></span><span lang="en-US"><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Équipe
Labeaume</span></i></span><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">
(Team Labeaume) won all but three seats in the 2013 municipal
election. Labeaume himself won 74% of the mayoral vote, and his party
won 65% of the council vote. </span></span></span>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">2013 council results by district </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">In
2013, Labeaume's party was challenged by the upstart </span></span></span><span lang="en-US"><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Démocratie
Québec </span></i></span><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">(Democracy
Quebec), a progressive leaning party, which naturally did not do very
well in the conservative city. Labeaume's party won 19 of the council
seats, while</span></span></span><span lang="en-US"><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">
</span></i></span><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Démocratie
Québec won the remaining three, all in the more left-leaning core of
the city. </span></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-C03qK4XTw8A/Wf9sMfJqx1I/AAAAAAAADfY/8A5fJwRYBq0mUQ7tqoSYVWx1hcNgTutBgCLcBGAs/s1600/quebec%2Bcity%2B2017%2Bblank%2Bmap%252C%2Blabelled.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="702" data-original-width="851" height="524" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-C03qK4XTw8A/Wf9sMfJqx1I/AAAAAAAADfY/8A5fJwRYBq0mUQ7tqoSYVWx1hcNgTutBgCLcBGAs/s640/quebec%2Bcity%2B2017%2Bblank%2Bmap%252C%2Blabelled.PNG" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Quebec City's council districts to be used this election</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</span></span></span>
</div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="firstHeading5"></a>
<span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">For
this election, there will be three new parties contesting for seats
on Quebec City's council. The main competition for opposition status
will come from </span></span></span><span lang="en-US"><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Québec
21 Équipe JF Gosselin, </span></i></span><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">which
is the party of Jean-François Gosselin, a former ADQ Member of
Quebec's National Assembly. Gosselin's last foray into politics was
running in the 2012 provincial election for the Liberals. Gosselin
will be running for mayor against Labeaume and polls put him in
second place, ahead of Démocratie Québec's mayoral candidate, Anne
Guérette, who is currently a city councillor. It will be interesting
to see if Gosselin's party can win any council seats, as it is likely
Démocratie Québec will still win some of the more urban districts,
while Gosselin's support could be more concentrated in the suburbs
where Labeaume will still do well.</span></span></span></div>
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<span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>Laval</b></span></span></div>
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<span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Laval's
council is currently led by former police officer (and former PQ
candidate) Marc Demers and his left-of-centre </span></span></span><span lang="en-US"><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Mouvement
lavallois </span></i></span><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">(Laval
Movement). Demers and his party were first elected in the 2013
election, replacing the previous Parti PRO des Lavallois regime,
which was also dissolved following the Charbonneau inquiry. Laval's
mayor had been Gilles Vaillancourt who resigned in 2012, and would
later plead guilty of corruption and fraud and sent to prison. The
2013 election was thus a watershed election for Laval, with only
three incumbents running for re-election. Mouvement lavallois won the
election, winning 18 of the city's 22 seats. The only other party to
win seats was the centrist Action Laval, which won two seats. Action
Laval's mayoral candidate was former Liberal MNA Jean-Claude Gobé,
who lost to Demers 44% to 24%. </span></span></span>
</div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Y-TegzNS4G4/Wf9sjB5ZJ9I/AAAAAAAADfg/Qpwjz5aTdJYJtGn_tjp9aXx2gOwZm0hlACLcBGAs/s1600/laval%2B2013.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="901" data-original-width="768" height="640" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Y-TegzNS4G4/Wf9sjB5ZJ9I/AAAAAAAADfg/Qpwjz5aTdJYJtGn_tjp9aXx2gOwZm0hlACLcBGAs/s640/laval%2B2013.PNG" width="544" /></a></div>
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<span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Demers
and Gobé will once again duke it out for Laval's top job. There are
five other candidates running for mayor, including two sitting city
councillors, Michel Trottier and Alain Lecompte. Michel Trottier was
elected in 2013 as an independent, but has formed a new party called
</span></span></span><span lang="en-US"><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Parti
Laval </span></i></span><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">(Laval
Party), which includes two incumbent councillors running for
re-election. Lecompte was elected in 2013 as a member of Mouvement
lavallois, but has also formed a new party, the </span></span></span><span lang="en-US"><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Alliance
des conseillers autonomes </span></i></span><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">(Alliance
of independent councillors). There is one other party running in
Laval and that is of </span></span></span><span lang="en-US"><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Avenir
Laval </span></i></span><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">(Future
Laval), led by Sonia Baudelot. </span></span></span>
</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-NZUqkZa6Kss/Wf9srnCXDOI/AAAAAAAADfo/XXZuILuHJbs-t5VntYFhwtOydYDZcK9WwCLcBGAs/s1600/laval%2Bward%2Bmap-labelled.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="284" data-original-width="566" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-NZUqkZa6Kss/Wf9srnCXDOI/AAAAAAAADfo/XXZuILuHJbs-t5VntYFhwtOydYDZcK9WwCLcBGAs/s1600/laval%2Bward%2Bmap-labelled.PNG" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Laval's city council districts used in 2013. The 2017 map saw little change. </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>Gatineau</b></span></span></div>
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<div class="western" lang="en-US" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The 2013 election in Gatineau saw a surprise victory for Maxime
Pedneaud-Jobin, who defeated incumbent mayor Marc Bureau 53% to 36%.
The race was between two centre-left candidates, with Pedneaud-Jobin
winning all but one district. Bureau managed to win the city's
downtown Hull-Wright District, while Pedneaud-Jobin won everywhere
else. Pedneaud-Jobin is the leader of Gatineau's first and only
political party, Action Gatineau. While he won the mayoral race in a
landslide, his council slate fared less well, winning just five
seats. Independents won the remaining 14 seats on council.
</div>
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For
this year's election, <span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Pedneaud-Jobin
will be challenged by two of those indpendent city councillors, Denis
Tassé and Sylvie Goneau. There was one poll released by Segma
Research which showed Pedneaud-Jobin easily defeating Tassé and
Goneau, with 53% to Tassé's 24% and Goneau's 14% with 21% undecided.
It should be noted though that Segma botched the 2013 race, showing
Bureau defeating Pedneaud-Jobin 51%-34%. </span></span></span>
</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yLATRYb5vd0/Wf9tpnCOK0I/AAAAAAAADf4/CXZeQ07MxmMibEAfe4hIF7797b_vY99JgCLcBGAs/s1600/gatineau%2B2013%2Bdistrict%2Bmap%252C%2Blabelled.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="368" data-original-width="612" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yLATRYb5vd0/Wf9tpnCOK0I/AAAAAAAADf4/CXZeQ07MxmMibEAfe4hIF7797b_vY99JgCLcBGAs/s1600/gatineau%2B2013%2Bdistrict%2Bmap%252C%2Blabelled.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Gatineau's city council districts used in 2013. The 2017 map saw little change.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Four
incumbent councillors will be running for re-election for Action
Gatineau (excluding Pedneaud-Jobin), while eight independent
councillors are running for re-election. </span></span></span>
</div>
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<div class="western" lang="en-US" style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Longueuil</b></div>
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<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Longueuil
will see a changing of the guard in this election, as incumbent mayor
and former BQ Member of Parliament Caroline St-Hilaire is not running
for re-election. Her party, Action Longueuil which won all but two
council seats in 2013 is still in existence though, and is being led
by city councillor Sylvie Parent. Running against Parent is another
city councillor, </span></span></span><strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Josée
Latendresse</span></span></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>
</b></span></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">who
was elected in a by-election in 2016 for Action Longueuil, but left
the party to sit as an independent. She has formed a new party called
</span></span></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Longueuil
citoyen</span></i></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">
(Longueuil Citizen). The third mayoral candidate is former NDP Member
of Parliament Sadia Groguhé, who leads the new Option Longueuil
party. </span></span></span></strong></div>
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<br />
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<strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"> </span></span></span></strong>
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Many
incumbent city councillors left Action Longueuil and will be running
for Longueuil citoyen. Seven incumbents will be running for Longueuil
citoyen, while only four are running again for Action Longueuil. </span></span></span></strong></div>
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<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-KGD5kjNQ4J0/Wf9uHK-tsoI/AAAAAAAADgI/VIR0VLLhK8sUQonNclt9PwC_D0K3-JW1wCLcBGAs/s1600/longueuil%2Bward%2Bmap-labelled.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="506" data-original-width="952" height="340" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-KGD5kjNQ4J0/Wf9uHK-tsoI/AAAAAAAADgI/VIR0VLLhK8sUQonNclt9PwC_D0K3-JW1wCLcBGAs/s640/longueuil%2Bward%2Bmap-labelled.PNG" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Longueuil's city council districts</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"> </span></span></span></strong>
</div>
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<strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>Sherbrooke</b></span></span></strong></div>
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<br />
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="firstHeading6"></a>
<strong><span lang="en-CA"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Sherbrooke's
council has been led by mayor Bernard Sévigny since 2009 and he will
once again be running for re-election. In 2013, he was easily
re-elected with 73% of the vote. Sévigny leads the centre-right
</span></span></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-CA"><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Renouveau
sherbrookois </span></i></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-CA"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">(Sherbrooke
Renewal), which was the only major party in the 2013 election. Even
so, his party only won 10 of the 20 seats on council, with the
remaining 10 going to independents. </span></span></span></strong>
</div>
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</div>
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<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span lang="en-CA"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">This
time there will be a more competitive party running against Renouveau
sherbrookois. That is of Sherbrooke citoyen (Sherbrooke Citizen), led
by former Quebec solidaire candidate Hélène Pigot. They face an
uphill challenge as no incumbents will be running for them. In
addition, there are three independent candidates running for mayor.
For council, there are six incumbents running for Renouveau
sherbrookois and seven independent incumbents running for
re-election.</span></span></span></strong></div>
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</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jKNat7vKveM/Wf9utGf-ibI/AAAAAAAADgU/jzf-z3z8iM8d0U2gPOmelyWl19N6_75YACLcBGAs/s1600/sherbrooke%2B2017%2Bblank%2Bmap%2Blabelled.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="948" data-original-width="961" height="631" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jKNat7vKveM/Wf9utGf-ibI/AAAAAAAADgU/jzf-z3z8iM8d0U2gPOmelyWl19N6_75YACLcBGAs/s640/sherbrooke%2B2017%2Bblank%2Bmap%2Blabelled.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Sherbrooke's new electoral map </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<strong><span lang="en-CA"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Since
the last election, Sherbrooke's city council structure will be
re-structured. City council will be reduced from 20 to 15 seats (14
districts plus the mayor). Additionally, the city will go from having
six boroughs to just four, and will be numbered instead of named. The
three-seat Lennoxville Borough Council (now called Borough 3) will be
retained, but the Brompton Borough Council has been abolished, as
that Borough was merged with the neighbouring Rock
Forest—Saint-Élie—Deauville Borough. </span></span></span></strong>
</div>
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<strong>
</strong><br />
</div>
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<strong><span lang="fr-FR"><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>Saguenay</b></span></span></strong></div>
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<br />
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<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span lang="en-CA"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Jean
Tremblay, who has been mayor of Saguenay since the city's
amalgamation in 2002, is finally stepping down. There are four
candidates running to replace him, the best known is former
Conservative cabinet minister Jean-Pierre Blackburn who is running as
an independent. There are two municipal parties running as well and
are both running mayoral candidates. The older of the two parties is
</span></span></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-CA"><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Équipe
du renouveau démocratique </span></i></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-CA"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">(Democratic
Renewal Team), which ran in the last election and won two seats. One
of those seats was won by Josée Néron who is the party's mayoral
candidate. The second party in the city is </span></span></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-CA"><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Parti
des citoyens de Saguenay </span></i></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-CA"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">(Party
of Saguenay Citizens), which was formed by Mayor Tremblay after the
last election. Their mayoral candidate is Dominic Gagnon. Seven
councillors who were elected as incumbents in 2013 joined this party
and are running for re-election. Five independent councillors are
running for re-election. Blackburn was originally going to run for
this party, but had a falling out. A fourth candidate running is
independent Arthur Gobeil, an accountant. Polling suggests Néron has
a bit of a lead over Blackburn with Gagnon in a distant fourth,
perhaps due to Blackburn's candidacy. Saguenay City Council has
shrunk in size from 20 to 16 seats. </span></span></span></strong>
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-AJy4GH0OEHo/Wf9vG6g2owI/AAAAAAAADgc/i52i2BsAOb0Hr7cmW2L-i_lADX3PYG1YwCLcBGAs/s1600/saguenay%2B2017%2Bblank%2Bmap-labelled.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="657" data-original-width="975" height="431" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-AJy4GH0OEHo/Wf9vG6g2owI/AAAAAAAADgc/i52i2BsAOb0Hr7cmW2L-i_lADX3PYG1YwCLcBGAs/s640/saguenay%2B2017%2Bblank%2Bmap-labelled.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Saguenay's new electoral map</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Lévis</b></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TfLX2WoLnfo/Wf9vSkWwxDI/AAAAAAAADgk/GetNfZ57gVcvxAQC68P6UPC78jF1AkxFQCLcBGAs/s1600/levis%2B2013.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="731" data-original-width="760" height="615" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TfLX2WoLnfo/Wf9vSkWwxDI/AAAAAAAADgk/GetNfZ57gVcvxAQC68P6UPC78jF1AkxFQCLcBGAs/s640/levis%2B2013.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;">Mayor
Gilles Lehouillier of Lévis Force 10 is running for re-election
against </span><strong><span style="font-weight: normal;">André Voyer</span></strong><span style="font-weight: normal;">
</span>who was a council candidate for the opposition <i>Renouveau
Lévis</i> <span style="font-style: normal;">(Renewal Lévis)</span><i>
</i>in 2013, but is running as an independent this time. <i>Renouveau
Lévis </i><span style="font-style: normal;">still exists, but is only
running four candidates for council and are not running a mayoral
candidate. </span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Lévis
Force 10 have already won 11 seats on council, as in 11 districts
their candidates were the only ones to register. Lévis Force 10 did
quite well in 2013 winning all but one seat on council, with an
independent candidate winning the remaining seat. </span></span>
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EQOBWb5gHD0/Wf9vXp1qTuI/AAAAAAAADgo/Hqm73T4OtrMb5vlzp5XY7-Jlx4nmRYe_QCLcBGAs/s1600/levis%2Bblank%2Bmap%2B2017%252C%2Blabelled.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="760" height="471" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EQOBWb5gHD0/Wf9vXp1qTuI/AAAAAAAADgo/Hqm73T4OtrMb5vlzp5XY7-Jlx4nmRYe_QCLcBGAs/s640/levis%2Bblank%2Bmap%2B2017%252C%2Blabelled.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Lévis' city council districts</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;"><b>Trois-Rivières</b></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">
</span></span>
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bUlMjfa5MnE/Wf9vhDIFIAI/AAAAAAAADgs/_tJsmvde7CQAkrPuRCt7kJxzzQsNn_1xQCLcBGAs/s1600/trois-rivieres%2B2013.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="867" data-original-width="943" height="588" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bUlMjfa5MnE/Wf9vhDIFIAI/AAAAAAAADgs/_tJsmvde7CQAkrPuRCt7kJxzzQsNn_1xQCLcBGAs/s640/trois-rivieres%2B2013.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />
</div>
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<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Trois-Rivières</span></span>
is the largest city in the province with no political parties. There
was a fringe party that ran in 2013, but are not running any
candidates this time. The city is led by mayor Yves Lévesque, who
has been mayor of the city since amalgamation in 2002. The
centre-right mayor was re-elected in 2013 over city councillor Sylvie
Tardif with 49% of the vote to her 31%. This election, Lévesque is
being challenged by city councillor <strong><span style="font-weight: normal;">Jean-François
Aubin</span></strong> and <strong><span style="font-weight: normal;">André
Bertrand. </span></strong><strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Trois-Rivières
</span></span></strong>City council reduced in size from 17 to 15
seats. </div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_8yUZshBtrA/Wf9vmGt6txI/AAAAAAAADgw/UTBF6DEpJGY0MWLEwreqZpKijiDd3HY3QCLcBGAs/s1600/trois-rivieres%2B2017%2Bblank%2Bmap%252C%2Blabelled.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="716" data-original-width="899" height="509" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_8yUZshBtrA/Wf9vmGt6txI/AAAAAAAADgw/UTBF6DEpJGY0MWLEwreqZpKijiDd3HY3QCLcBGAs/s640/trois-rivieres%2B2017%2Bblank%2Bmap%252C%2Blabelled.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-style: normal;">Trois-Rivières city council districts<b><br /></b></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Terrebonne</b></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;">Long-time
mayor and former Tory MP Jean-Marc Robitaille resigned in 2016
following corruption allegations in the fallout of the Charbonneau
Commission. He was replaced as mayor by city councillor </span><strong><span style="font-weight: normal;">Stéphane
Berthe. Robitaille's party (Équipe Robitaille) won all but two seats
in the 2013 elections, but is no longer an active party for obvious
reasons. </span></strong></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-szdyn3v3Xo0/Wf9vwWlCUjI/AAAAAAAADg0/yRiqm9riLCYejB_dtvmXFgBxbE6bSRYEACLcBGAs/s1600/terrebonne%2B2013.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="771" data-original-width="1205" height="408" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-szdyn3v3Xo0/Wf9vwWlCUjI/AAAAAAAADg0/yRiqm9riLCYejB_dtvmXFgBxbE6bSRYEACLcBGAs/s640/terrebonne%2B2013.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-weight: normal;"> </span></strong>
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-weight: normal;">Berthe
is running for mayor under the new banner of </span></strong><strong><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Générations
Terrebonne</span></i></strong><strong><span style="font-weight: normal;">
(Generations Terrebonne). Two incumbent city councillors will be
running for his party, while the remaining incumbents will be running
for </span></strong><strong><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Alliance
démocratique Terrebonne</span></i></strong><strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">
(Terrebonne Democratic Alliance)</span></span></strong><strong><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">
</span></i></strong><strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">whose
mayoral candidate is Marc-André Plante. A third party was created
called </span></span></strong><strong><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Nouvel
Élan Terrebonne </span></i></strong><strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">(New
Spirit Terrebonne) and are also running a full slate of candidates,
including Valérie Quevillon who is running for mayor. </span></span></strong></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9twbsmO2H74/Wf9v1ZoMjCI/AAAAAAAADg8/EjzszdP2PUQFP6zApJlfbLjCehYKoHVLACLcBGAs/s1600/terrebonne%2B2017%2Bblank%2Bmap%252C%2Blabelled.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="685" data-original-width="1105" height="396" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9twbsmO2H74/Wf9v1ZoMjCI/AAAAAAAADg8/EjzszdP2PUQFP6zApJlfbLjCehYKoHVLACLcBGAs/s640/terrebonne%2B2017%2Bblank%2Bmap%252C%2Blabelled.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Terrebonne's city council districts</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"> </span></span></strong>
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu</b></span></strong></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">In
2013, the race in Saint-Jean was a free-for-all after the departure
of mayor Gilles Dolbec. Michel Fecteau was elected mayor of the city
with just 22% of the vote, narrowly ahead of former BQ Member of
Parliament Claude Bachand at 20%. Two other candidates were right
behind Fecteau and Bachand: Alain Laplante won 19% of the vote, and
Stéphane Legrand won 18%. The top three candidates in that election
will once again face-off for the mayoralty of the city this time. </span></span></strong>
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dUc01I5wC5Y/Wf9v8ETMuDI/AAAAAAAADhA/UrFhx6BWvGUQBXtDVD9LZ-JebzgRkG9ogCLcBGAs/s1600/saint-jean%2B2013.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="762" data-original-width="779" height="626" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dUc01I5wC5Y/Wf9v8ETMuDI/AAAAAAAADhA/UrFhx6BWvGUQBXtDVD9LZ-JebzgRkG9ogCLcBGAs/s640/saint-jean%2B2013.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">The
council vote in 2013 was split between three parties. Fecteau's party
(Parti Fecteau) won six seats on the 13 seat council; Despite
finishing fourth in the mayoral election, Legrand's party (Vision
Legrand) became the opposition with five seats. Équipe Alain
Laplante won just one seat, while an Independent won the remaining
seat. Bachand's party, </span></span></strong><strong><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Avec
Bachand </span></i></strong><strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">(With
Bachand) was left off of council.</span></span></strong></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-su0_vJsp9Bg/Wf9wAjiiphI/AAAAAAAADhE/b6yai76BpE8yQKzVr59snbkcceRhpyGZwCLcBGAs/s1600/saint-jean%2Bward%2Bmap-labelled.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="634" data-original-width="632" height="640" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-su0_vJsp9Bg/Wf9wAjiiphI/AAAAAAAADhE/b6yai76BpE8yQKzVr59snbkcceRhpyGZwCLcBGAs/s640/saint-jean%2Bward%2Bmap-labelled.PNG" width="636" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Saint-Jean's city council districts</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Since
2013, Vision Legrand disbanded, with some of its councillors becoming
independents and some joining Parti Fecteau. The one independent on
council also joined Parti Fecteau. However, some Parti Fecteau
councillors left that party. All in all, five incumbent councillors
are running for Parti Fecteau, three are running for Équipe Alain
Laplante and three are running as independents. </span></span></strong>
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>Brossard</b></span></strong></div>
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<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Brossard
has been led by mayor Paul Leduc from 1990 to 2001 and since 2009. He
was re-elected in 2013 with 65% of the vote against his opponent,
Louis Lemoine who won 35%. Leduc's party, Priority Brossard won all
but two seats on council, while Lemoine's party, Brossard Revival
winning the remaining two. </span></span></strong>
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Leduc
will once again be running for re-election. Brossard Revival's
mayoral candidate is Jean-Marc Pelletier. In addition to those two,
this year's mayoral race has expanded thanks to the addition of a new
party, </span></span></strong><strong><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Brossard
Ensemble </span></i></strong><strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">(Brossard
Together), led by former Priority Brossard councillor Doreen Assaad.
She is joined on the ballot by former NDP Member of Parliament Hoang
Mai who is running as an independent. </span></span></strong>
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4Ietmo3XDGY/Wf9wMd9UY-I/AAAAAAAADhM/oWXPDLHqX-UjkIGxuGOqSekCWaewq_aEQCLcBGAs/s1600/brossard%2Bward%2Bmap-blank%2B-%2B2017%252C%2Blabelled.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="643" data-original-width="844" height="486" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4Ietmo3XDGY/Wf9wMd9UY-I/AAAAAAAADhM/oWXPDLHqX-UjkIGxuGOqSekCWaewq_aEQCLcBGAs/s640/brossard%2Bward%2Bmap-blank%2B-%2B2017%252C%2Blabelled.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Brossard's city council districts</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Five
incumbent councillors will be running for re-election for Priority
Brossard, two are running for Brossard Ensemble (both former members
of Priority Brossard), while one councillor is running for
re-election for Brossard Revival.</span></span></strong></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>Repentigny</b></span></strong></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Long-time
Repentigny mayor Chantal Deschamps (of Équipe Deschamps) is running
for re-election. She will be challenged by councillor Bruno
Villeneuve of </span></span></strong><strong><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Parti
démocratique de Repentigny-Le Gardeur </span></i></strong><strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">(Democratic
Party of Repentigny-Le Gardeur). Last election, Deschamps won the
mayoralty with 62% of the vote against her Parti démocratique
opponent, Jean Langlois who won 38%. Deschamps' party won 12 of the
13 seats on council. Only Villeneuve was able to win a seat for Parti
démocratique. With Villeneuve running for mayor, Parti démocratique
have no incumbents running for re-election in any of the district
seats. All incumbent councillors will be running for Équipe
Deschamps.</span></span></strong></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
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<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-BBIm-heDPJQ/Wf9wWyPURjI/AAAAAAAADhY/R00-mlEvL9E5bPowxFEKchfRenFScD7eACLcBGAs/s1600/repentigny%2Bward%2Bmap-blank%2B-2017%252C%2Blabelled.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="726" data-original-width="618" height="640" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-BBIm-heDPJQ/Wf9wWyPURjI/AAAAAAAADhY/R00-mlEvL9E5bPowxFEKchfRenFScD7eACLcBGAs/s640/repentigny%2Bward%2Bmap-blank%2B-2017%252C%2Blabelled.png" width="544" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Repentigny's city council districts</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</span></span></strong></div>
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<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>Other
major cities:<br />
<br />
- Drummondville: </b></span></strong><strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Incumbent
mayor Alexandre Cusson has been re-elected with no opposition. He was
first elected in 2013. There are no parties in Drummondville. </span></span></strong>
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>-
Saint-Jérôme: </b></span></strong><strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Incumbent
mayor Stéphane Maher has also been re-elected with no opposition. He
too was first elected in 2013. His party, Vision Saint-Jérôme is
the only one contesting the election, and already have six
councillors elected without opposition.</span></span></strong></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>-
Granby: </b></span></strong><strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Incumbent
mayor Pascal Bonin is running for re-election against Yves Bélanger
and Carl Bouvier. Bonin was first elected in 2013, when he defeated
then-mayor Richard Goulet. There are no parties in Granby.</span></span></strong></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>-
Blainville: </b></span></strong><strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Blainville
will see a re-match of the 2013 mayoral race between mayor Richard
Perreault of </span></span></strong><strong><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Vrai
Blainville </span></i></strong><strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">(True
Blainville) and Florent Gravel of </span></span></strong><strong><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Mouvement
Blainville </span></i></strong><strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">(Blainville
Movement). Vrai Bainville won every seat on council in 2013.</span></span></strong></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>-
Saint-Hyacinthe: </b></span></strong><strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Incumbent
mayor Claude Corbeil faces a challenge from Chantal Goulet. Corbeil
was first elected in 2013. There are no parties in Saint-Hyacinthe.</span></span></strong></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>-
Mirabel: </b></span></strong><strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Incumbent
mayor Jean Bouchard of Action Mirbael is challenged by two
candidates; city councillor Pierre-Paul Meloche of </span></span></strong><strong><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Mouvement
citoyen Mirabel </span></i></strong><strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">(Mirabel
Citizen Movement), an Action Mirabel defector, and René Plouffe who
leads </span></span></strong><strong><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Renouveau
Mirabel </span></i></strong><strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">(Mirabel
Renewal), who is only running one other council candidate. In 2013,
Action Mirabel was the only party in the municipality, winning six of
the nine seats. In this election, Action Mirabel are running five
councillors for re-election, while </span></span></strong><strong><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Mouvement
citoyen Mirabel </span></i></strong><strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">has
one incumbent councillor running.</span></span></strong></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>-
Shawinigan: </b></span></strong><strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Incumbent
mayor Michel Angers is running for re-election against François
Bonenfant and Judeline Corriveau. Angers has been mayor since 2009.
There are no parties in Shawinigan.</span></span></strong></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>-
Dollard-Des Ormeaux: </b></span></strong><strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Incumbent
mayor Edward Janiszewski is finally facing a credible opposition
since being acclaimed to office in 2013. He is challenged by
incumbent councillor Alex Bottausci and two other candidates.
Janiszewski was first elected in 2005, and has never faced stiff
competition for the job in his career. There are no parties in the
city.</span></span></strong></div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="firstHeading7"></a>
<strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>- Rimouski</b></span></strong><strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">:
Rimouski got a new mayor last year when its mayor, </span></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Éric
Forest was appointed to the Senate. Forest was replaced by city
councillor Marc Parent, who will be running to keep his job. He will
be running against city councillor Pierre Chassé and two other
candidates. There are no parties in Rimouski.</span></span></span></strong></div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="firstHeading8"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="firstHeading9"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="firstHeading10"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="firstHeading101"></a>
<strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>-
Châteauguay: </b></span></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Châteauguay
mayor Nathalie Simon of the Citizens' Action party is being
challenged by Vision Châteauguay candidate Pierre-Paul Routhier and
independent councillor Steve Brisebois. Simon has been mayor of the
city since 2009. In 2013, the Citizens' Action party was the only
party running, and won six of the nine seats on council. The
remaining three independents formed the new Vision Châteauguay
party, and with one floor-crosser have four city councillors running
for re-election against just three for Citizens' Action.</span></span></span></strong></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>-
Mascouche: </b></span></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Incumbent
mayor Guillaume Tremblay of </span></span></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Vision
D</span></i></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">é</span></span></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">mocratique
de Mascouche </span></i></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">(Democratic
Vision of Mascouche) is being challenged by two independent
candidates, François Collin and Line Lavallée. Tremblay was first
elected in 2013, when his party won every seat on council defeating
Équipe Luc Thériault. Now,</span></span></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">
</span></i></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Vision
Démocratique is the only party in the city, and have already won six
seats on council due to acclamations. </span></span></span></strong>
</div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="firstHeading11"></a>
<strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>-
Victoriaville: </b></span></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Former
BQ Member of Parliament André Bellavance was easily elected in a
rare <a href="http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2016/02/victoriaville-quebec-mayoral-by.html">mayoral by-election </a>in 2016. He will be running for re-election
against Jean Roy. There are no parties in Victoraville.</span></span></span></strong></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>-
Saint-Eustache: </b></span></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Incumbent
mayor Pierre Charron of Option Saint-Eustache is being challenged by
city councillor Julie Desmarais or </span></span></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Renouveau
Saint-Eustache </span></i></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">(Renewal
Saint-Eustache) and Robert St-Germain of </span></span></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Accès
Saint-Eustache </span></i></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">(Access
Saint-Eustache). Charron has been mayor since 2005, and was easily
elected in 2013 when his party was the only one in town. His party
won all but two seats on council. One of those two his party did win
was won by Desmarais, who ran as an independent. All but one
incumbent councillor running for re-election is running for Option
Saint-Eustache, with the remaining councillor running as an
independent.</span></span></span></strong></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>-
Rouyn-Noranda: </b></span></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Incumbent
mayor Mario Provencher is running for re-election, and will be
challenged by four other candidates. Provencher was first elected in
2009, and was easily re-elected in 2013 with 80% of the vote. This
time he faces stiff opposition from city councillors Diane Dallaire
and Philippe Marquis. There are no parties in Rouyn-Noranda, though
Provencher had his own party in 2013 where he was the only candidate.</span></span></span></strong></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>-
Boucherville: </b></span></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Incumbent
mayor Jean Martel is running for re-election against Monique Reeves.
Martel has been mayor of the city since 2009, and leads the only
party in the city, </span></span></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Option
Citoyens Citoyennes </span></i></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">(Citizens
Option). In 2013, his party won every seat on city council. In this
election, his party has already won two seats due to acclamation.
Every incumbent running for re-election, save one is running for his
party, while one incumbent is running as an independent.</span></span></span></strong></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;"><b>-
Sallaberry-de-Valleyfield: </b></span></span></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Long-time
mayor Denis Lapointe is not running for re-election, leaving this
race open. City councillor François Labossière is running against
Joanne Brunet and Miguel Lemieux. There are no parties in
Valleyfield.</span></span></span></span></strong></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;"><b>-
Vaudreuil-Dorion</b></span></span></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">:
Mayor Guy Pilon of </span></span></span></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><i><span style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Parti
de l'Action de Vaudreuil-Dorion</span></span></i></span></strong><strong><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">
(Vaudreuil-Dorion Action Party) is running for re-election against
Pierre Séguin, leader of “Team we are”. In 2013 Parti de
l'Action was the only party running, and won all but one seat on
council. </span></span></span></span></strong>
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>Prefectural
races</b></span></strong></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Among
the 16 races for regional county municipality (RCM) prefects, the two
largest RCMs are Montcalm and Les Pays d'en Haut, both of which are
located north of Montreal. In Les Pays d'en Haut, Wentworth-Nord
mayor André Genest takes on Martin Nadon, Marie-Claire Vachon and
Guy Vandenhove for the top job. In Montcalm, Saint-Calixte mayor
Louis-Charles Thouin has been acclaimed as prefect. </span></span></strong>
</div>
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<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<strong><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Polls
close across the province at 8pm. </span></span></strong>
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-63282673312159482222017-10-16T16:34:00.000-04:002017-10-16T16:34:09.267-04:002017 Alberta municipal elections today
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Voters
in Alberta will be heading to the polls today to elect the municipal
councils and school trustees in 287 of Alberta's 354 municipalities.
This includes 17 of the province's 18 cities (Lloydminster, which is
partly in Saskatchewan holds elections on Saskatchewan's municipal
election day), 108 towns, 89 villages, 5 specialized municipalities,
64 municipal districts, 1 improvement district and the “Special
Areas Board”, which covers Alberta's three “special areas”.
Alberta's 51 “summer villages” held their municipal elections in
the summer.
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Out
of Alberta's 17 cities holding elections, only two: Alberta's largest
cities of Calgary and Edmonton- elect their councils using a ward
structure. The remaining 15 cities elect their councils on an
at-large basis. However, in most of Alberta's 69 mainly rural
municipal districts and specialized municipalities, councils are
elected from wards or “divisions”. In most of the municipal
districts, mayors and reeves (equivalent of mayor) are not directly
elected by voters, but elected from within the municipal council,
much like how Premiers are chosen in Nunavut and the Northwest
Territories. Some towns and most villages do not have direct
elections for mayor either.
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Across
the province, there will be no election for head of council (mayor or
reeve) in the municipalities of Bashaw, Bonnyville, Bow Island,
Brazeau County, Brooks, Cardston, Coalhurst, Cold Lake, Crowsnest
Pass, Daysland, Eckville, Fairview, Grimshaw, Hanna, High Level,
Jasper, Killam, Lamont, Manning, Mayerthorpe, McLennan, Milk River,
Millet, Morinville, Olds, Picture Butte, Provost, Rimbey, Sedgewick,
Sexsmith, Slave Lake, Standard, Stettler, Swan Hills, Sylvan Lake,
Three Hills, Valleyview, Vulcan, Wainwright and Wembley. Entire
councils were acclaimed, meaning there will be no elections at all in
the municipalities of Barnwell, Bashaw, Beiseker, Bittern Lake,
Breton, Castor, Cereal, Champion, Chauvin, Coalhurst, Cremona, Czar,
Daysland, Dewberry, Donalda, Donnelly, Eckville, Ferintosh,
Girouxville, Halkirk, Hill Spring, Hussar, Irma, Kananaskis
Imrpovement District, Killam, Lomond, Lougheed, Manning, Mayerthorpe,
McLennan, Munson, Myrnam, Nobleford, Onoway, Peace No. 135, Ranchland
No. 66, Rockyford, Rosalind, Rosemary, Sedgewick, Standard,
Valleyview, Wabamun, Warburg, Warner No. 5, Waskateneau, Wembley and
Youngstown. In Beaverlodge, Bowden, Spirit River and Viking, only
elections for mayor will occur, as the entire remainder of their
councils were acclaimed. And finally, Not enough candidates came
forward for Kanasnaskis Improvement District, County of Forty Mile
No. 8, Cowley, Hines Creek and Vauxhall.
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<h3 class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Calgary</b></h3>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
In both of Alberta's two major cities (Calgary and Edmonton), both
incumbent mayors are running for re-election. Of the two, only the
mayoral race in Calgary will be competitive as incumbent mayor Naheed
Nenshi faces stiff competition from Bill Smith, the former president
of the provincial Progressive Conservative Party. There are eight
other candidates running for mayor, including fiscal conservative
city councillor Andre Chabot, who is running in third place. </div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-o6lWBwJSH4c/WeUS9wnDQlI/AAAAAAAADc4/oGYKEoPXUjIzRw8Yv_e7HpPjm9qBYNjMgCLcBGAs/s1600/calgary%2Bmayor%2Bcandidates%2B2017.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="186" data-original-width="395" height="150" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-o6lWBwJSH4c/WeUS9wnDQlI/AAAAAAAADc4/oGYKEoPXUjIzRw8Yv_e7HpPjm9qBYNjMgCLcBGAs/s320/calgary%2Bmayor%2Bcandidates%2B2017.PNG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Calgary's main mayoral candidates</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Polls are split on the outcome of today's election; Mainstreet
Research has consistently shown Smith ahead, with their final poll
published Friday giving Smith a 13 point lead over Nenshi (52% to
39%). However, a poll conducted by Forum Research for the Canadian
Municipal Election Study shows the opposite result, giving Nenshi a
17 point lead (50% to 33%). The methodologies of the two polls
differ; Mainstreet was done by IVR while the Forum poll was done
online from a sample drawn originally from a telephone recruit. The
Forum poll was done over a longer period of time (September 28 to
October 12) with a smaller sample (n=843) size compared to
Mainstreet's poll of 1500 respondents done over just two days
(October 10 to 11). While I have more faith in the phone-to-web
methodology, the longer period of time in field raises some doubt as
to the accuracy of the Forum poll. On the flip side, Mainstreet has
consistently shown Smith to be leading among younger voters, which
makes absolutely no sense. One thing is for sure though, municipal
elections are hard to poll for, thanks to them typically having lower
turnouts. The Calgary mayoral race will not only be interesting for
the clash of its two front-runners, but also a clash of competing
polling firms and their methodologies.
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;">So,
why could such a popular mayor potentially lose? Well, the obvious
answer is Calgary is a very conservative city, but that only
scratches the surface, as it has had a history of electing more
moderate mayors (Nenshi's predecessor, Dave Bronconnier was a
card-carrying Liberal). The big reason is the desire to have a
conservative at all at some level of government in the city. After
all, this is the first ever municipal election in the province while
under an NDP administration. And with the much-hated Justin Trudeau's
Liberals in power on a federal level, local conservatives are thirsty
for a conservative municipal government, something that Nenshi does
not represent. Nenshi is also seen as being an arrogant “charismatic
brainiac”, as </span><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">Macleans
</span></i><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">puts
it, and has admitted to being “irritating” which is sure </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">t</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">o
put off more populist leaning voters. </span></span>
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kf_6P7GRPgU/WeUTNKCrMCI/AAAAAAAADc8/gwVkk06VW8MtfGrGTAgE5vNgd11acSxLACLcBGAs/s1600/calgary%2B2013.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1013" height="640" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kf_6P7GRPgU/WeUTNKCrMCI/AAAAAAAADc8/gwVkk06VW8MtfGrGTAgE5vNgd11acSxLACLcBGAs/s640/calgary%2B2013.PNG" width="404" /></a></div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;">Nenshi
has been the city's mayor since 2010, when he won with an insurgent
candidacy,</span> harnessing the power of social media to engage
voters with his platform, en route to winning 40% of the vote in a
three-way race. His election was a big surprise, due to his more
progressive politics in a city known for its conservatism. With his
win, Nenshi became the first Muslim mayor of a major North American
city, and in 2014 was named “World Mayor” by the City Mayors
Foundation. In 2013, Nenshi was easily re-elected to the city's top
post, as incumbent mayors often do in their second elections. Nenshi
won 74% of the vote in his race against former Tory MLA Jon Lord, who
won 21% of the vote. In his win, Nenshi won every single ward in the
city. His best ward was Ward 8, which covers the inner-city area,
where he won 83% of the vote. He also did very well in Ward 3
(winning 81%), which is in the city's northeast corner. This area is
home to a large number of immigrants and tends to vote Liberal or NDP
in provincial and federal elections (as does Ward 8). Nenshi's worst
ward was Ward 10, located in the city's east end, which was also his
worst ward in 2010. There, he still won 61% of the vote. Ward 10 is
not the most conservative part of the city, but it is the ward of
fiscally conservative councillor Andre Chabot.
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_NYIvAKhG6k/WeUTXhQu3_I/AAAAAAAADdE/NLS9rj3sHpcC2QbqJJkOpHQtvjy_nZlrQCLcBGAs/s1600/calgary%2Bward%2Bmap%2B2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1127" height="320" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_NYIvAKhG6k/WeUTXhQu3_I/AAAAAAAADdE/NLS9rj3sHpcC2QbqJJkOpHQtvjy_nZlrQCLcBGAs/s320/calgary%2Bward%2Bmap%2B2013.png" width="225" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">2013 ward map</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-2D-dnCIiglU/WeUTXuYfJpI/AAAAAAAADdA/E15LA0FhAw8tAmW12GBU0WkhMRJZaWdxwCLcBGAs/s1600/calgary%2Bward%2Bmap%2B%25282017%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="657" data-original-width="528" height="320" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-2D-dnCIiglU/WeUTXuYfJpI/AAAAAAAADdA/E15LA0FhAw8tAmW12GBU0WkhMRJZaWdxwCLcBGAs/s320/calgary%2Bward%2Bmap%2B%25282017%2529.png" width="257" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">2017 ward map</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The
City of Calgary's ward map has changed for this election. The city
will continue to have 14 wards, but population shifts in the city
means the north half of the city will gain a ward, while the southern
half of the city loses one. The north will now have the same number
of councillors as the south. The most significant changes to the map
came in the northeast of the corner, which sees Ward 3 move
completely west of the Deerfoot Trail, which has a domino effect, as
Ward 5 moves north to compensate, forcing Ward 10 to also move north,
and also Ward 9.
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
While
there is a progressive vs. conservative fight at the top of the
ticket, there are several wards where there will be similar
ideological battles for council seats, thanks in part to various
conservatives in the city organizing to defeat progressive and
moderate leaning candidates. Races to watch (with thanks to Calgary
resident njall from the US Election Atlas forum):<br />
<br />
- <b>Ward
3 </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">councillor Jim Stevenson is
not running for re-election, opening this seat up. Polling done by
the right wing advocacy group “Commons Sense Calgary” shows this
as a close race between centrist Jyoti Gondek and moderate
progressive Ian McAnerin. </span>
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;">-
Thanks to the ward redistribution, </span><b>Ward 5 </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">councillor
Ray Jones is running in Ward 10, which covers much of the same
territory. This has created an open race in the ward. Polling
suggests George Chahal has a healthy lead here, but there are a lot
of undecideds in this minority-heavy ward.</span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;">-
</span><b>Ward 6 </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">councillor
Richard Pootmans is not running for re-election. Conservative
candidate Jeff Davison has the lead in polling, with centrist Esmahan
Razavi in second place.</span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;">-
</span><b>Ward 7 </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">progressive-leaning
incumbent Druh Farrell is in a tight race against centrist candidate
Brent Alexander in this ward.</span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;">-
</span><b>Ward 8 </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">progressive-leaning
incumbent Evan Woolley is in a tight race against
conservative-leaning candidate Chris Davis</span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;">-
</span><b>Ward 9 </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">progressive-leaning
incumbent Gian-Carlo Carra is in a tight race against
conservative-leaning candidate Cheryl Link</span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;">-
Ward 5 incumbent councillor Ray Jones, a moderate conservative is
running </span><b>Ward 10 </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">where
he has a decent lead with a lot of undecideds. There are 10 other
candidates running against him, and all are polling in single digits.</span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;">-
Another open seat is </span><b>Ward 11 </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">where
Manning Institute researcher Jeromy Farkas has a decent lead in
polling over a split opposition. </span>
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
In
all the other wards, the incumbents are conservative leaning and are
though to be shoe-ins to be re-elected.</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<h3 class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Edmonton
</b>
</h3>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
In contrast to the mayoral race in Calgary, the one in Edmonton is
sure to be a snoozer. You see, mayor Don Iveson is on his second
election, which usually means a cake-walk election for incumbent
mayors. And that is exactly what he is about to get. Iveson faces no
serious challengers, and polling backs this up. Mainstreet's latest
poll has him winning leading with 46%, 39 points ahead of his nearest
rival, perennial candidate (and former Wildrose candidate) Don
Koziak, who was at 7%. 35% of people are undecided, but I have a
feeling many of those people will not even vote. A poll conducted by
Leger conducted a couple of weeks ago showed a near-identical result,
with Iveson leading over Koziak (45% to 7%). In addition to Iveson
and Koziak, there are 11 other candidates running for mayor.
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pVCba4S17Pw/WeUTh30jSpI/AAAAAAAADdI/NbvAccQUGtgNrkTW1oONc0HeGv3_3ynQQCLcBGAs/s1600/edmonton%2Bmayor%2Bcandidates%2B2017.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="190" data-original-width="264" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pVCba4S17Pw/WeUTh30jSpI/AAAAAAAADdI/NbvAccQUGtgNrkTW1oONc0HeGv3_3ynQQCLcBGAs/s1600/edmonton%2Bmayor%2Bcandidates%2B2017.PNG" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Edmonton's two main mayoral candidates</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The 2013 mayoral election in Edmonton was supposed to be a three-way
race, but Iveson, a two-term city councillor was easily elected with
62% of the vote, defeating former Liberal MLA Karen Leibovici who won
19% of the vote and councillor (now Conservative MP) Kerry Diotte,
who won 15% of the vote. Iveson's best ward was Ward 8, which covers
the Strathcona part of the city, an area that regularly votes NDP in
provincial and federal elections, and is easily the most left wing
part of the city. There, he won 70% of the vote. Iveson's worst ward
was Ward 1, which covers West Edmonton, an area where Leibovici
represented when she was an MLA.</div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-lsWuhjGpLXk/WeUTqDr_XLI/AAAAAAAADdQ/0yAJ88VtlKI3qAXdYWAVuPl9x3tnBGM3QCLcBGAs/s1600/edmonton%2B2013.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1177" height="640" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-lsWuhjGpLXk/WeUTqDr_XLI/AAAAAAAADdQ/0yAJ88VtlKI3qAXdYWAVuPl9x3tnBGM3QCLcBGAs/s640/edmonton%2B2013.PNG" width="470" /></a></div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
With the race for mayor being all but decided, the real races in the
city will be for the city's 12 council seats. Like Calgary, Edmonton
saw its ward boundaries change, but they were much more minor in
scope. The most significant change was between the borders of wards 9
and 10 and between wards 11 and 12, to account for the growing
suburbs in the south end of the city. Ward 10 gains the
neighbourhoods of Twin Brooks, Blackburne, Blackmud Creek, Cashman,
Cavanagh, Callaghan and Allard from Ward 9, while Ward 12 gains the
neighbourhoods of Minchau, Weinlos, Bisset, Pollard Meadows, Daily
Grove and Crawford Plains from Ward 11.
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-C6jds5mjxIg/WeUTxi9X0YI/AAAAAAAADdY/78fAzwbQNpQbBN4h2Tmcq24WeBte0D0CACLcBGAs/s1600/edmonton%2Bward%2Bmap%2B2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1280" height="320" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-C6jds5mjxIg/WeUTxi9X0YI/AAAAAAAADdY/78fAzwbQNpQbBN4h2Tmcq24WeBte0D0CACLcBGAs/s320/edmonton%2Bward%2Bmap%2B2013.png" width="256" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">2013 ward map</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yvFZBFXqwEs/WeUTxp6E0vI/AAAAAAAADdU/aTkT7iphPJ0zEtuBt_XC2QqYV7ivBu07ACLcBGAs/s1600/edmonton%2Bward%2Bmap%2B%25282017%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="633" data-original-width="517" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yvFZBFXqwEs/WeUTxp6E0vI/AAAAAAAADdU/aTkT7iphPJ0zEtuBt_XC2QqYV7ivBu07ACLcBGAs/s320/edmonton%2Bward%2Bmap%2B%25282017%2529.png" width="261" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">2017 ward map</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
According to political scientist John Brennan, these are the city
council races to watch in Edmonton:</div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;">-
</span><b>Ward 3 </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">incumbent Dave
Loken has had the support of mayor Don Iveson, which is a rarity in
municipal politics. He is being challenged by a number of strong
candidates, which might divide his opposition in the ward.</span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;">-
</span><b>Ward 4 </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">i</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">s
</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">an open race with former
Liberal MLA Ed Gibbons deciding to not run for re-election. Brennan
believes the main candidates will be Rocco Caterina (son of
councillor Tony Caterina, a Tory), New Democrat Aaron Paquette,
public servant Alison Poste and Tricia Velthuizen, a research analyst
for the new United Conservative Party.</span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>-
Ward 5 </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">is another open race
with incumbent Michael Oshry not running for re-election. The race
will be between four main candidates, businesswoman Sarah Hamilton
who was endorsed by former mayor Stephen Mandel, a Tory; Dawn Newton
an active member of the Women's Advocacy Voice of Edmonton; Miranda
Jimmy, an indigenous woman who is the program manager of the Edmonton
Heritage Council; and David Xiao, the former PC MLA for
Edmonton-McClung, which covers part of this ward.</span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;">-
</span><b>Ward 6 </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">incumbent
Scott McKeen, a former columnist for the Edmonton Journal may see a
challenge from businessman Tish Prouse who lost his bid in Ward 7 in
2013 and from another businessman, Bill Knight.</span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>-
Ward 7 </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">will see Tory incumbent
Tony Caterina face off against two progressive opponents who may
split the vote: Kris Andreychuk, the city's supervisor of public
safety and Mimi Williams, a perennial candidate and activist who
received the endorsement form the Edmonton and District Labour
Council.</span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>-
Ward 8 </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">is home to the city's
most left wing city councillor, Ben Henderson. He is facing off
against two other centre-left candidates, James Kosowan and Kristen
Goa, both New Democrats.</span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>-
Ward 9 </b><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">is
an open seat, thanks to incumbent councillor Bryan Anderson not
running for re-election. Brennan sees this race as being between
engineer Tim Cartmell and physician Rob Agostinis. Cartmell has the
endorsement of Anderson, and a former Tory MLA, while Agostinis has
the endorsement of the Edmonton and District Labour Council. </span></span>
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<h3 class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Red
Deer</b></h3>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;">With
over 100,000 people, Red Deer is now the third largest municipality
in the province, having passed Strathcona County in the last census.
It is also the largest municipality in the province without a
municipal ward structure. All eight city councillors are elected on
an at-large basis; Each voter in the city votes for eight
councillors, and the eight candidates with the most votes are
elected. In 2013, voters had a chance to change that in a plebiscite
which asked voters whether or not they would like to have a ward
system in place, but voters overwhelmingly opposed the measure, with
</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">just </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">28%
of voters supporting the idea. </span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-OcjtHfXVZI4/WeUT6925uwI/AAAAAAAADdc/tutH5QU4KUgD7tIWa2thgnu0c9xbMMObQCLcBGAs/s1600/red%2Bdeer%2Bmayor%2Bcandidates%2B2017.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="189" data-original-width="264" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-OcjtHfXVZI4/WeUT6925uwI/AAAAAAAADdc/tutH5QU4KUgD7tIWa2thgnu0c9xbMMObQCLcBGAs/s1600/red%2Bdeer%2Bmayor%2Bcandidates%2B2017.PNG" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Red Deer mayoral candidates</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;">The
race for mayor of Red Deer is between incumbent mayor Tara Veer and
Sean Burke, who is owns a digital advertising provider business.
Veer, who had been a city councillor was elected as mayor of the city
in 2013, defeating fellow councillor Cindy Jefferies in a narrow 46%
to 39% victory. This time it is unlikely to be as close. Her main
challenger is focusing on social issues such as homelessness, and is
an admitted recovering crystal meth addict, which may not fly well in
this conservative city. Veer for her part is more conservative
</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">leaning</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">,
having worked for a Conservative MP in the past. </span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-oBs2feYYPZg/WeUUF70g-bI/AAAAAAAADdk/Cc-7RaS1zBMqYcvXt6hMTAmngu16HudeACLcBGAs/s1600/red%2Bdeer%2B2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="795" data-original-width="1129" height="450" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-oBs2feYYPZg/WeUUF70g-bI/AAAAAAAADdk/Cc-7RaS1zBMqYcvXt6hMTAmngu16HudeACLcBGAs/s640/red%2Bdeer%2B2013.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RaIfFh8NJNY/WeUUF-XIyrI/AAAAAAAADdo/4GKjjuAFsBsYc1L0Jl8VuiTns7_FwKw-wCLcBGAs/s1600/reddeer2013%2Bblank%2Bmap.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="671" data-original-width="582" height="320" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RaIfFh8NJNY/WeUUF-XIyrI/AAAAAAAADdo/4GKjjuAFsBsYc1L0Jl8VuiTns7_FwKw-wCLcBGAs/s320/reddeer2013%2Bblank%2Bmap.png" width="277" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Red Deer polling division map used in 2013</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;"></span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;"></span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;"></span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;"></span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;"><br />
In the
2013 election, Veer won all but four of the polling divisions in the
city, getting her best results in the city's more conservative, newer
suburbs. Her best polling station covers the Clearview Ridge area in
the city's northeast, where she won 58% of the vote. Jeffries
appealed more to voters in the more left leaning central part of the
city, where she won the remaining four polling divisions. She won a
majority of votes in just poll, an area th</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">at</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">
covers the Downtown part of the city, where she won 54% of the vote.</span></div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i>Many thanks to the City of Red Deer's election office which sent
me last election's poll division map, which could not be found on the
web. </i>
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<h3 class="western" style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Strathcona County</b></h3>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;">The
fourth largest municipality in Alberta is Strathcona County, a
“specialized municipality” mainly consisting of the Hamlet of
Sherwood Park, a large suburb on Edmonton's eastern fringe. Over 70%
of the county's residents live in Sherwood Park, which is otherwise
unincorporated. From Edmonton, the county runs north to Fort
Saskatchewan and the North Saskatchewan River, east to Elk Island
National Park, and south past Cooking Lake. The county elects a
mayor, and eight councillors, one from each of the county's eight
wards. Five of the wards are located in Sherwood Park, and the
remaining three represent the more rural parts of the municipality. </span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;"> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-aOonuqjIj3E/WeUUhAYOusI/AAAAAAAADdw/XskVvHLJyU8fmEn98s8JpVI0Kz3n2tovACLcBGAs/s1600/stratchona%2Bcounty%2Bmayor%2Bcandidates%2B2017.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="191" data-original-width="528" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-aOonuqjIj3E/WeUUhAYOusI/AAAAAAAADdw/XskVvHLJyU8fmEn98s8JpVI0Kz3n2tovACLcBGAs/s1600/stratchona%2Bcounty%2Bmayor%2Bcandidates%2B2017.PNG" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Strathcona County's main mayoral candidates</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</span>
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">The
race for mayor of Strathcona County will be an interesting one, as
there are four credible candidates, three of which have some sort of
partisan background. The only one who doesn't is the incumbent mayor,
Roxanne Carr, who is nonetheless conservative enough to be the mayor
of an Alberta suburb. Before becoming mayor in 2013, Carr sat on
County council, representing Ward 2, which covers the north-central
part of Sherwood Park. In addition to her, the other candidates are: </span></span>
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
-Former PC MLA Jacquie Fenske, who represented the rural northern
part of Strathcona County when she represented the riding of Fort
Saskatchewan-Vegreville from 2012 to 2015. She was previously a
county councillor, representing Ward 5, which covered that same rural
northern part of the county.
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
- Former mayor Linda Osinchuk, who was mayor from 2010 to 2013 when
she was defeated by Carr in a very close two-way race. Since her
defeat, Osinchuk ran in the 2015 election for the Wildrose Party in
the riding of Sherwood Park, finishing in third place. Interestingly,
the woman she beat to become mayor in 2010 (Cathy Olesen) was her PC
opponent in 2015, who finished in second place behind the NDP. Before
becoming mayor, Osinchuk represented Ward 3 on County council, which
covers the south-central part of Sherwood Park.</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">-
Rod Frank, who was the Liberal candidate in the 2015 federal election
in Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan, coming in 2</span></span><sup><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">nd</span></span></sup><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">
place behind the Conservative candidate, winning 20% of the vote.
Interestingly, Frank is eschewing the fact he ran as a Liberal, and
claims to have run as a “fiscal conservative and social
progressive”, which doesn't really describe the 2015 Liberal Party
platform in my opinion.</span></span></div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
- Finally the candidate who will likely place last is David Dixon,
who is running on the more progressive platform of the five
candidates. His past political experience includes running for mayor
of the District of North Vancouver in 2005, where he placed last with
6% of the vote.</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6u6tzJwxnGM/WeUUqK7PYFI/AAAAAAAADd4/iCJDVuqcgw4UHhKqaN1OhaqCSouTCZJxwCLcBGAs/s1600/strathcona%2Bco%2B2013.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="483" data-original-width="1088" height="284" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6u6tzJwxnGM/WeUUqK7PYFI/AAAAAAAADd4/iCJDVuqcgw4UHhKqaN1OhaqCSouTCZJxwCLcBGAs/s640/strathcona%2Bco%2B2013.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">The
2013 election saw an interesting divide in the County, and was only
possible due to the sheer closeness of the result. Carr defeated
Osinchuk by fewer than 500 votes, winning 51% to Osinchuk's 49%. </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">The
divide was not urban vs. rural as one might expect, but rather north
vs. south. </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">
Carr, who represented a ward in northern Sherwood Park as councillor,
won the five more northerly wards in the county, while Osinchuk, who
represented a ward in southern Sherwood Park when she was a
councillor, won that one ward in Sherwood Park and the two southerly
rural wards. </span></span>Carr's top ward was Ward 2 (59%), where
she was the councillor and Osinchuk's best ward was Ward 6 (54%) in
the rural southwest. </div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SvPpQQmO-MI/WeUU22QQ4NI/AAAAAAAADeA/wA7hMFOpCpUTSpQE-6asPTbbwzVnXFTOQCLcBGAs/s1600/strathcona%2Bcounty%2Bblank%2Bmap%2B2017-labelled.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="463" data-original-width="311" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SvPpQQmO-MI/WeUU22QQ4NI/AAAAAAAADeA/wA7hMFOpCpUTSpQE-6asPTbbwzVnXFTOQCLcBGAs/s1600/strathcona%2Bcounty%2Bblank%2Bmap%2B2017-labelled.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Strathcona County's ward map</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The 2017 ward map will be nearly identical to the 2013 map, save for
a minor border change between Wards 3 and 6.</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<h3 class="western" style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Lethbridge</b></h3>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Lethbridge is Alberta's fourth largest city, and just like Red Deer,
it has no wards, electing its eight councillors on an at-large basis.
The Lethbridge mayoral race will be between incumbent mayor Chris
Spearman, University of Lethbridge student and Indigenous activist
Martin Heavy Head and perennial council candidate Bob Janzen.
Spearman was first elected as mayor in 2013, defeating three other
candidates. Prior to that he was a businessman and had also run in
the 2010 mayoral election, narrowly losing. He will likely win
re-election, as his opponents are not as strong. His main opponent
will likely be Heavy Head, who became the first Indigenous person to
run for Lethbridge City Council in 2013, winning over 4000 votes,
1700 behind the eight place spot needed to be elected. Janzen has
also run for council in the past, winning 1572 votes in 2004 and 938
votes in 2010.
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-OAjxx9ceuwI/WeUVCQQGD0I/AAAAAAAADeI/l9gPUL9BMxkOaRZW0az6a2bOMNK7YD7-wCLcBGAs/s1600/lethbridge%2Bmayor%2Bcandidates%2B2017.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="239" data-original-width="364" height="210" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-OAjxx9ceuwI/WeUVCQQGD0I/AAAAAAAADeI/l9gPUL9BMxkOaRZW0az6a2bOMNK7YD7-wCLcBGAs/s320/lethbridge%2Bmayor%2Bcandidates%2B2017.PNG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Lethbridge's main mayoral candidates</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">The
2013 race in Lethbridge saw Spearman elected mayor with 46% of the
vote. His next closest rival was city councillor Bridget Mearns, who
had worked for a number of conservative politicians </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">in
the past</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">.
</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">In
total, s</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">he
won 30% of the vote, 3800 votes behind Spearman. Spearman won every
polling division in the city, but none of them with the majority of
votes. His support was very evenly distributed, winning 4</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">9</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">%
of the vote in his best poll (which covers the Copperwood
neighbourhood in the southwest of the city) and winning 42% of the
vote in his worst poll, which covers the Downtown area of the city.
His support was slightly better in the more conservative suburbs of
the city, and worse in the left leaning inner-city.</span></span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-R887NlFfFZY/WeUVLkfAvOI/AAAAAAAADeQ/EVUf6TeSbEMwc_0X2lTtzhbEEhnzgmjngCLcBGAs/s1600/lethbridge%2B2013%2Bblank%2Bmap.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="696" data-original-width="593" height="320" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-R887NlFfFZY/WeUVLkfAvOI/AAAAAAAADeQ/EVUf6TeSbEMwc_0X2lTtzhbEEhnzgmjngCLcBGAs/s320/lethbridge%2B2013%2Bblank%2Bmap.png" width="272" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Lethbridge polling division map used in 2013</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ipdHPs1uweU/WeUVK6ZbKuI/AAAAAAAADeM/UBcKCPW9VrsXDy8uB0drmhTAVhCxRIZywCLcBGAs/s1600/lethbridge%2B2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="788" data-original-width="1076" height="468" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ipdHPs1uweU/WeUVK6ZbKuI/AAAAAAAADeM/UBcKCPW9VrsXDy8uB0drmhTAVhCxRIZywCLcBGAs/s640/lethbridge%2B2013.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<h3 class="western" style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b> </b></h3>
<h3 class="western" style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Wood Buffalo</b></h3>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Up in the northeast corner of the province is the sprawling Regional
Municipality of Wood Buffalo, home to Fort McMurray and not much else
(just a number of small villages). Wood Buffalo happens to be the
fourth largest municipality in the country in terms of geographic
area. As it is home to a large non-permanent population, and due to a
giant Wildfire that ravaged Fort McMurray at the time of the 2016
census, it is hard to gauge exactly how many people live in the
municipality. Some estimates have the population being over 100,000,
but the census reported 72000 people in the 62000 sq. km
municipality, 67000 of those 72000 live(d) in Fort McMurray.
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Wood Buffalo Municipal Council is elected via a ward system. The
municipality has four wards; Ward 1 covers Fort McMurray and elects
six at-large councillors. Ward 2 covers the northern two thirds of
the municipality, and elects two at-large councillors. Wards 3 and 4
in the south elect one councillor each. Representation on council
does not accurately reflect population; despite over 90% of the
municipality's population living in Fort McMurray, its weight on
council is only 60%.
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Long
time mayor Melissa Blake will not be running for re-election, making
the race for mayor an open one </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">for
the first time since 2004</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">.
The candidates to replace her are realtor Allan Grandison, ward 3
councillor Allan Vinni, helicopter pilot Anthony Needham and former
Tory MLA Don Scott, who represented the riding of Fort
McMurray-Conklin from 2012 to 2015. </span></span>
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-00dmgh50-Bo/WeUW6Hr8qpI/AAAAAAAADeg/viwPCUnmoIw6W4ui5cDGwAXhfoJvkLseACLcBGAs/s1600/woodbuffalo%2Bblank%2Bmap%2B2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="821" data-original-width="439" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-00dmgh50-Bo/WeUW6Hr8qpI/AAAAAAAADeg/viwPCUnmoIw6W4ui5cDGwAXhfoJvkLseACLcBGAs/s1600/woodbuffalo%2Bblank%2Bmap%2B2017.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Wood Buffalo ward map</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<h3 class="western" style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>St. Albert</b></h3>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
St. Albert is a suburb of Edmonton, home to 65,000 people. Its mayor,
Nolan Crouse, is retiring after 10 years as mayor. He had decided to
run for the provincial Liberal Party's leadership earlier this year,
but dropped out after just two days. The race to replace him is
between incumbent councillors Cathy Heron and Cam Mackay and former
councillor Malcolm Parker. According to Dave Cournoyer's blog, the
race has been divisive, as is apparently the norm in the city. On
council, voters will elect six at-large councillors.</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<h3 class="western" style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Medicine Hat</b></h3>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
In southeastern Alberta is the province's sixth largest city of
Medicine Hat. Its mayor, Ted Clugston is running for re-election
after first being elected mayor in 2013. There are three candidates
running against Clugston; former alderman (councillor) John Hamill,
local broadcaster and teacher Scott Raible and Thomas “Tall Bike
Tommy” Fougere, a local outspoken vlogger. On council, voters will
elect eight at-large councillors.</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<h3 class="western" style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Grande Prairie</b></h3>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
In northwestern Alberta is the province's seventh largest city of
Grande Prarie. Its mayor, Bill Given is running for re-election for
the second time, after first being elected in 2010. Running against
him is Grande Prairie Petroleum Association member Dick Baillie,
Theodore Nikiforuk and Rony Rajput, who has technically dropped out
of the race due to finding out he technically lives outside of the
city, but will still appear on the ballot. On council, voters will
elect eight at-large councillors.</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<h3 class="western" style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Airdrie </b></h3>
<h3 class="western" style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><br /></b>
</h3>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Airdrie, an exurb of Calgary, is the fastest growing city in the
province, growing from 43,000 to 62,000 people between the last two
censuses. Last election saw its incumbent mayor, Peter Brown
re-elected with no opposition, after first being elected in 2010 when
the city was nearly half of its current size. This time around he is
facing competition from four candidates. Brown will face some stiff
competition from his deputy mayor, Fred Burley as well as volunteer
Marie Lauer, senior manager Blaine Astra and retired businessman
Bernie Biever. On council, voters will elect six at-large
councillors.</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<h3 class="western" style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Rocky View County</b></h3>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Rocky View County is a rural municipal district that surrounds the
City of Calgary on its west, north and east sides, fully surrounding
the City of Airdrie, and other exurban Calgary municipalities as
well. It is the largest municipality in the province without a direct
election for mayor. In fact, Rocky View doesn't have a mayor, it has
a reeve, and he or she will be chosen from among the County's council
following the election. The county is divided into 9 divisions, each
electing one councillor. Incumbent reeve Greg Boehilke represents
Division 6, located in the northeast corner of the county, and is
running for re-election there against John McMurray. </div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-O7tO4nDjQ5E/WeUXFgkv4tI/AAAAAAAADek/ShCc2Ote1dMfgdXFazDPFTgVFpsjGl0XwCLcBGAs/s1600/rockyview%2Bcounty%2Bdivision%2Bmap.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="567" data-original-width="687" height="264" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-O7tO4nDjQ5E/WeUXFgkv4tI/AAAAAAAADek/ShCc2Ote1dMfgdXFazDPFTgVFpsjGl0XwCLcBGAs/s320/rockyview%2Bcounty%2Bdivision%2Bmap.PNG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Rocky View County division map</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
There are of course many other races across the province, but those
are the ones in the 11 largest municipalities. Polls will be closing
at 8pm Mountain Time, which is 10pm Eastern.
</div>
Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com36tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-85306571688547439852017-10-02T17:06:00.003-04:002017-10-02T17:08:59.708-04:00Louis-Hébert by-election today<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Voters in the Quebec
riding of Louis-Hébert head to the polls today to elect a new member
of the Quebec National Assembly. The riding was vacated in April when
its MNA, Liberal Sam Hamad resigned. He had held the seat since
2003, taking the riding back from the separatist PQ in 2003.</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XsW4V_R7RSw/WdKp0-akx-I/AAAAAAAADbk/x6RyZyZQ1jYu2YfsJYbP_yNxuxiaPAFPQCLcBGAs/s1600/louis-hebert%2B2014.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="857" data-original-width="1600" height="342" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XsW4V_R7RSw/WdKp0-akx-I/AAAAAAAADbk/x6RyZyZQ1jYu2YfsJYbP_yNxuxiaPAFPQCLcBGAs/s640/louis-hebert%2B2014.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Louis-Hébert is
located in the western suburbs of Quebec City, taking in part of the
former city of Sainte-Foy (specifically the districts of L'Aéroport
and Pointe-de-Sainte Foy) and the former city of Cap-Rouge, plus the
municipality of Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
While the riding has
existed since 1966, its boundaries before the 2001 redistribution
covered less than half of its current territory, though the riding
has been based in the western suburbs of the city since its creation.
Before the 2001 redistribution, much of the riding was located in the
riding of La Peltrie, which is now northwest of the city. Its new
boundaries have proved to be good for the Liberal Party, as they won
the seat in every election since. But by no means is it safe; Hamad
won the seat in the 2007 election by fewer than 900 votes (over the
ADQ), and had another close race in 2012, beating the CAQ candidate
by a little over 2000 votes.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The riding is
overwhelmingly Francophone (97%), with a small percentage (2%) being
Anglophone. It is also overwhelmingly White (97%), mostly of French
Canadian stock, but it has a non-negligible population of Irish
ancestry. Most of the population is Catholic (86%) while 11% have no
religion. The riding is significantly more wealthy than the province
as a whole. The median income is $50,000 (compared to the provincial
median of $33,000). </div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-LiWGgrN4uKk/WdKqOkgtmLI/AAAAAAAADbo/sZ_8EXlYNWsC4rvrVj1z2e6GDb0C5FPPgCLcBGAs/s1600/louis-hebert%2B2014%2Bresults%2Bby%2Barea.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="150" data-original-width="500" height="213" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-LiWGgrN4uKk/WdKqOkgtmLI/AAAAAAAADbo/sZ_8EXlYNWsC4rvrVj1z2e6GDb0C5FPPgCLcBGAs/s640/louis-hebert%2B2014%2Bresults%2Bby%2Barea.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">2014 results by neighbourhood</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Geographically, the
main political split in the riding is between the rural area (such as
Saint-Augustin) which tends to vote for right-of-centre parties and
the urban part of the riding (Cap-Foy and Pointe-de-Sainte-Foy) which
tends to vote the Liberals. This split was less obvious in 2014 with
Hamad winning the seat by 23 points. In fact on election day, the
Liberals won a slightly higher share of the vote in Saint-Augustin
than in the Quebec City part of the riding. The right-of-centre CAQ
also did better in Saint-Augustin, winning 36% of the election day
votes there compared to 30% in Quebec City. Both left-of-centre
parties, the PQ and Quebec solidaire did better in Quebec City, but
are generally not a good fit for this wealthy riding.</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Based on current
polling, the race could see a close match between the Liberals and
the CAQ. The Liberals are running Hamad's former assistant Ihsanne El
Ghernati, who was chosen quickly after the previous candidate had to
drop out, following complaints from his former employees. The CAQ is
running Genevieve Guilbeaut, the former spokesperson for Quebec's
coroner's office. She also was chosen quickly after their candidate
dropped out after a controversy as well. As for the other parties,
the PQ is running biologist Norman Beauregard and Quebec solidaire is
running lawyer Guillaume Boivin. It will be the first test for the
new NDP provincial wing which just re-registered its party status
after a 23 year hiatus. They are running former MP Denis Blanchette
who held the federal riding of Louis-Hébert from 2011 to 2015. The
Greens are running their leader, Alex Tyrrell.</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Polls close at 8pm.
</div>
Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-17048500223069167712017-09-29T16:45:00.004-04:002017-09-29T16:46:26.466-04:00Kamloops mayoral and council by-elections<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Residents of
Kamloops, British Columbia will be heading to the polls tomorrow in a
mayoral by-election. The city of 90,000 people, located in the
British Columbia Interior's Thompson Country has had its top job
vacant since its previous mayor, Peter Milobar was elected to the
British Columbia legislature in last Spring's provincial election.
Milobar had been mayor since 2008, and sits as a member of the BC
Liberal Party in Victoria. In addition to the mayoral by-election,
there are two city council vacancies which will also be filled in
tomorrow's election.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Politically,
Kamloops is well known as a bellwether in provincial politics, the
area has voted for whichever party that has won the most seats in
every provincial election since the first Kamloops riding was created
in 1903 (a longer streak than any other part of the province). This
continued true in last Spring's election which saw both of Kamloops'
ridings vote Liberal, as that party won the plurality of the seats in
the BC legislature (the NDP would end up forming government with the
help of the Greens). Federally, Kamloops has been more conservative
than the country as whole in who it sends to Ottawa. It has been held
by the Tories since 2004, and the Canadian Alliance before that (from
2000). Before 2000, the NDP's Nelson Riis held Kamloops' riding, so
it has gone NDP recently. It has not voted Liberal since 1974. The
2015 election saw a three-way race between the Conservatives, NDP and
Liberals.</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Unlike some of the
larger cities in British Columbia, there are no municipal parties on
city council. But just like nearly every municipality in the
province, there are also no wards. In addition to voting for mayor,
residents get eight votes for city council for the eight positions
available in regular municipal elections.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-haMLjtbdQJU/Wc6wY1nLNLI/AAAAAAAADbE/wthwyPogw8wG25KrD-X9WQHuagRoVsiXQCLcBGAs/s1600/kamloops%2B2014.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="772" data-original-width="1210" height="408" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-haMLjtbdQJU/Wc6wY1nLNLI/AAAAAAAADbE/wthwyPogw8wG25KrD-X9WQHuagRoVsiXQCLcBGAs/s640/kamloops%2B2014.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xQc0T9Mc9Us/Wc6wjU2xoZI/AAAAAAAADbM/OOr5P7YSOJMHgLEXEh0tmjfskXljTP-wwCLcBGAs/s1600/kamloops%2B2014%2Bpoll%2Bmap.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="699" data-original-width="895" height="311" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xQc0T9Mc9Us/Wc6wjU2xoZI/AAAAAAAADbM/OOr5P7YSOJMHgLEXEh0tmjfskXljTP-wwCLcBGAs/s400/kamloops%2B2014%2Bpoll%2Bmap.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Map of Kamloops' 17 arbitrarily drawn polling divisions used in the 2014 election</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
In the last
mayoral election in the city, held in 2014, voters got to choose
which voting place to vote at, whether it was close to home, close to
work, or wherever they wanted to. This means it is impossible to
accurately map the results of the election, as not only are there no
wards to map the results, there are no polling divisions with
definite boundaries to map either. But, I still attempted to map the
2014 mayoral election, by dividing the city into zones with
arbitrarily drawn boundaries surrounding the city's 17 polling
stations used in that election. Using this method, I was still able
to find an obvious pattern in the results. While Milobar easily won
re-election with 78% of the vote, his support was much stronger in
the city's suburbs, where he won most polls with over 80% of the
vote. His support was much weaker in the inner part of the city, with
his worst poll being located in the city's downtown, which he won
with “just” 68% of the vote. Milobar's main opponent was Pierre
Filisetti, an owner of local gardening and landscaping business, who
would go on to plead guilty for assault last year in a bear-spray
incident. Filisetti's support was stronger where Milobar's wasn't,
and vise-versa. As a BC Liberal (which is a right wing party in BC),
Milobar's strength was in the same areas that tend to vote for that
party in provincial elections. Kamloop's central core, where
Milobar's support was weakest usually votes NDP in both provincial
and federal elections.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Outlook</b></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
In the race to
replace Milobar, there are six candidates, but just one really stands
out as his likely successor, councillor Ken Christian. Christian was
the top vote-getter out of all city council candidates in the 2014
election, winning over 12,000 votes (comparatively, Milobar won over
17,000 votes). Christian has been on Kamloops' City Council since
2008, and was a school trustee prior to that. He has been endorsed by
both Kamloops-South Thompson MLA Todd Stone and former mayor and
former Kamloops-North Thompson MLA Terry Lake (both Liberals).</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-nHqepDw5zTE/Wc6w6OqyDoI/AAAAAAAADbQ/prz4gz9YMuY5Au68d7NdieIhAupqpuPVACLcBGAs/s1600/kamloops%2B2017%2Bmayor%2Bcandidates.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="164" data-original-width="214" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-nHqepDw5zTE/Wc6w6OqyDoI/AAAAAAAADbQ/prz4gz9YMuY5Au68d7NdieIhAupqpuPVACLcBGAs/s1600/kamloops%2B2017%2Bmayor%2Bcandidates.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The two main candidates for mayor</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The candidate who
poses the most threat to Christian is probably Bill McQuarrie, who is
a columnist for a local TV station. McQuarrie has been campaigning on
a “diversified economy” and getting rid of property tax
increases. Other candidates include: Non-profit director Glenn Hilke
who ran for city council in 2014 (winning 1% of the vote), who is
running on affordable housing and other social issues; Former logger
Stu Holland, who wants to “represent working people”, and wants
to open the proposed Ajax mine, which has been a divisive issue in
the city; Mike McKenzie, who wants to “bring the city together”
and is a self described “local and national youth and community
representative”; and Todd McLeod, and air-ambulance paramedic.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The race for city
council will probably be more interesting, as there are 22 candidates
running for the two open positions. One of the positions was held by
Ken Christian, who resigned to run for mayor. The second position was
vacated by Marg Spina, who resigned her seat after being diagnosed
with brain cancer. Notable candidates running are former councillor
Nancy Bepple who was the NDP's candidate in Kamloops-South Thompson
in this year's provincial election, and Kevin Krueger who was a local
Liberal MLA from 1996 to 2013 (representing Kamloops-North Thompson
from 1996 to 2009 and Kamloops-South Thompson from 2009 to 2013).
Another strong candidate is Kathy Sinclair, who is the executive
director of the Kamloops Art Council. Not being very familiar with
Kamloops politics, I can't make many predictions, but would not be
surprised if the city elects two right-of-centre candidates based on
its politics.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Polls close at 8pm
(11pm Eastern).</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-50597399259019804852017-09-26T14:09:00.002-04:002017-09-26T14:09:48.533-04:00Newfoundland and Labrador municipal elections today
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Newfoundlanders and
Labradorians head to the polls today to elect municipal governments
across the province’s 276 municipalities. Up for election are
municipal councils; mayors, councillors and in some cases deputy
mayors.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<h3>
Across the
province...</h3>
<h3>
<br /></h3>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Among the province’s largest communities
(over 5000 people), only the Town of Clarenville is seeing its mayor
re-elected with no opposition. However, two other towns over 5000
people will not have an election for mayor, as only one candidate
stepped forward to replace an outgoing mayor. Former Tory MHA Terry
French has been acclaimed as mayor of Conception Bay South and town
councillor Craig Scott has been acclaimed as mayor of Torbay. </div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0JTEKoQdyaM/WcqWrFxAjFI/AAAAAAAADaY/UIjze13juvgsxZRyUXulmIAi6sQE0Lu0wCLcBGAs/s1600/nl%2Bmunicipalities%2Bmap.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1474" data-original-width="1600" height="588" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0JTEKoQdyaM/WcqWrFxAjFI/AAAAAAAADaY/UIjze13juvgsxZRyUXulmIAi6sQE0Lu0wCLcBGAs/s640/nl%2Bmunicipalities%2Bmap.PNG" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Municipalities on Newfoundland</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7t4eHEAaEWI/WcqW1wOVfMI/AAAAAAAADac/jC72Ep1A2kABjIHtQ_0pbeq0JgCzILIcwCLcBGAs/s1600/labrador%2Bmunicipalities%2Bmap.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="527" data-original-width="643" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7t4eHEAaEWI/WcqW1wOVfMI/AAAAAAAADac/jC72Ep1A2kABjIHtQ_0pbeq0JgCzILIcwCLcBGAs/s1600/labrador%2Bmunicipalities%2Bmap.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Municipalities of Labrador</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
In
addition to Conception Bay South and Torbay, the municipalities of
Gander, Happy Valley-Goose Bay, Labrador City, Mount Pearl, Portugal
Cove-St. Philip's and St. John's will all definitely be getting new
mayors, as their incumbent mayors are not running for re-election. In
Labrador City, they've switched voting systems, so that there will no
longer be a direct election for mayor at all. Instead, voters there
will get up to seven votes to elect the seven members of town
council, and the candidate with the most votes of those seven will be
elected mayor. <br />
<br />
Most communities in the province elect
their councils on an at-large basis, with no municipal ward system.
In fact, only two municipalities have municipal wards: St. John’s
and Conception Bay South. St. John’s has five municipal wards, and
Conception Bay South has four. In both cases, these wards elect
one member of council, but both cities also have at-large councillors
elected across the city, who do not stand in one particular ward.</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<h3>
St. John's</h3>
<h3>
<br /></h3>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
As
St. John’s is by far the largest city in the province, and the
province’s capital, most of my focus on today’s municipal
elections will be there. St. John’s has an 11 member city council
consisting of the mayor, deputy mayor, five councillors elected from
each of the five city wards, and four councillors elected on an
at-large basis. Both the mayor and deputy mayor positions are elected
at-large as well.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RpC1fjoBySM/WcqXDniHAwI/AAAAAAAADak/V5Oiye-0g_gGiM1s4UQDrcsTcWd2W7hewCLcBGAs/s1600/St%2BJohn%2527s%2B2017%2Bcandidates.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="189" data-original-width="321" height="188" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RpC1fjoBySM/WcqXDniHAwI/AAAAAAAADak/V5Oiye-0g_gGiM1s4UQDrcsTcWd2W7hewCLcBGAs/s320/St%2BJohn%2527s%2B2017%2Bcandidates.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">St. John's mayoral candidates</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The race for mayor
of St. John's could be quite interesting, as incumbent mayor Dennis
O'Keefe is not running for re-election. The race to replace him is
between three candidates: former mayor Andy Wells, city councillor
Danny Breen and community activist Renee Sharpe.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Wells, a former
union negotiator, served as mayor of St. John's from 1997 until
resigning amidst controversy in 2008, after being appointed as chair
of the provincial public utilities board. He had initially refused to
resign after his appointment. While he was mayor, he was known for
his numerous scandals and outspoken, abrasive personality. He decided
to run for mayor after being suspended from his position with the
public utilities board due to criticizing the St. John's City Council
using a government email. <br />
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Danny Breen has
served on St. John's City Council since 2009, representing Ward 1. He
was re-elected in 2013 without opposition. Breen is seen as a
contrast to Wells, being non-confrontational and consensus building.
He is a Tory; he ran for the Progressive Conservative Party in a <a href="http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/04/virginia-waters-newfoundland-by.html">2014 by-election</a> in Virginia Waters, losing to Liberal Cathy Bennett.
<br />
<br />
Renee Sharpe is an ironworker welder with a local union,
and her grandfather was mayor of Paradise. She is also a self-defence
instructor and has worked with a number of community organizations.
Not surprisingly, her platform is the most left wing of the three
candidates.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
(Oh, and
there's also a tongue-in-cheek campaign for “Finn” a five year
old Australian cattle dog, whose campaign on YouTube has become
something of a sensation. Finn is an acting dog, having appeared in a
movie and on TV.)</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-m506Wda9d-U/WcqXvbFVRbI/AAAAAAAADaw/ALYQgDLbvdMfzPO6cdx4AGLoYqXnG21GQCLcBGAs/s1600/st%2Bjohns%2B2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="984" data-original-width="646" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-m506Wda9d-U/WcqXvbFVRbI/AAAAAAAADaw/ALYQgDLbvdMfzPO6cdx4AGLoYqXnG21GQCLcBGAs/s1600/st%2Bjohns%2B2013.png" /></a></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The
<a href="http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/09/newfoundland-and-labrador-municipal.html">2009 election</a> was also an interesting race, between mayor Dennis
O'Keefe, a Tory and city councillor Sheilagh O'Leary, a New Democrat.
O'Keefe won the election with 57% of the vote to O'Leary's 42%, which
is relatively close for municipal election standards, and closer than
polls had predicted. O'Keefe won four of the five wards in the city,
doing especially well in the city's conservative western and southern
suburbs. O'Leary won the remaining ward (Ward 2), which covers the
downtown and part of the east end, an area that typically votes NDP
both federally and provincially.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Compared to 2009,
which was a race between two conservative leaning candidates, O'Keefe
increased his vote share by a slight amount in four of the city's
five wards. However, his vote share took a large hit in Ward 2, going
from 56% to 42%, thanks to the presence of O'Leary's candidacy.
Overall, O'Keefe saw a slight decrease in his share of the vote,
thanks entirely to the vote shift in Ward 2. Special thanks to the
City of St. John’s elections office who sent me the ward-by-ward
results of the 2013 mayoral race (data not available on the city's
website).
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
O'Leary got
back onto council in a by-election last year (in Ward 4), and is
looking for a promotion as she is running for the deputy mayor
position against Michelle Worthman. </div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uvkpJxoPA8Y/WcqXSV8uDMI/AAAAAAAADas/MxEuuH4XZNovWc3J1P0VJAkp2ZkqxJ2GwCLcBGAs/s1600/st%2Bjohns%2Bward%2Bmap%2B2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="936" data-original-width="878" height="640" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uvkpJxoPA8Y/WcqXSV8uDMI/AAAAAAAADas/MxEuuH4XZNovWc3J1P0VJAkp2ZkqxJ2GwCLcBGAs/s640/st%2Bjohns%2Bward%2Bmap%2B2017.png" width="600" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">New St. John's Ward map</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
St. John's'
ward boundaries were changed since the last election:<br />
- Ward 1
loses the Pleasantville neighbourhood (to Ward 2) but gains the
Penetanguishene neighbourhood (from Ward 4)</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
- Ward 2 loses the
Cornwall Crescent and Albany Street areas (to Ward 3) but gains
Pleasantville (from Ward 1)</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
- Ward 3 gains the
Cornwall Crescent and Albany Street areas from Ward 2</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
- Ward 4 loses
Penetanguishene from Ward 1</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
- Ward 5 does not
have any boundary changes.</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
On council,
the incumbents in three wards are not running for re-election. As
noted, Ward 1 councillor Danny Breen is running for mayor and Ward 4
councillor Sheilagh O'Leary is running for Deputy Mayor. Ward 3 will
also see an open race, as its councillor, Bruce Tilley is resigning.
One notable candidate in that ward is Olympic gold medal winning
curler Jamie Korab is running. As a fellow curler, I wish him the
best!</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
In terms of
predictions, I'm thinking that Danny Breen will probably win the
mayoral election quite handily, as I think St. John's voters aren't
going to want to deal with Wells' shenanigans again (crazier things
have happened though, you only have to look south of the border to
know what I mean!). I do wonder if Wells will even place second, as
Sharpe appears to be running a more active campaign. We will know
for certain after polls close at 8pm local time (6:30 Eastern).
</div>
Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-54414702341549165612017-09-07T16:01:00.001-04:002017-09-07T16:02:28.916-04:00Saskatoon Fairview by-election preview<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The Fall election
season kicks off today with a provincial by-election in the
Saskatchewan riding of Saskatoon Fairview. The seat was vacated in
July when its MLA, Jennifer Campeau of the governing Saskatchewan
Party, accepted a job with a mining company in British Columbia.
Campeau was a former cabinet minister in the government of Premier
Brad Wall (who will also be resigning soon). This will be the second
provincial by-election in the province since the last provincial
election in 2016. The first by-election was held in March in
Saskatoon Meewasin, and saw the NDP's Ryan Meili win the seat which
was previously held by the Saskatchewan Party on an 11-point
two-party average swing. Saskatoon Fairview is an even lower hanging
fruit for the NDP, as Campeau won the seat in 2016 by just three
points over her New Democratic opponent (compared to the eight point
difference between the two parties in Meewasin). </div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-S3jWqHQdrUE/WbGkbeEjmSI/AAAAAAAADZ8/iCE-F1kIavMhhFL8gpDNQAr4az-VhWK3ACLcBGAs/s1600/Saskatoon%2BFairview%2B2016.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="714" data-original-width="702" height="640" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-S3jWqHQdrUE/WbGkbeEjmSI/AAAAAAAADZ8/iCE-F1kIavMhhFL8gpDNQAr4az-VhWK3ACLcBGAs/s640/Saskatoon%2BFairview%2B2016.png" width="629" /></a></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The once immensely
popular conservative Saskatchewan Party government has been becoming
more and more unpopular in recent months, with polls showing them and
the NDP in a dead heat. It looks like the province may be heading
toward the urban/rural polarization last seen in the early 2000s,
which had the NDP gobble up nearly all of the urban seats and the
Saskatchewan Party win most of the rural ridings. Since Wall's first
victory in 2007, the Saskatchewan Party has been able to win ever
increasing majority governments by winning suburban seats in Regina
and Saskatoon and ridings in some of the smaller cities. Saskatoon
Fairview as one of those suburban seats the Saskatchewan Party
wrested away from the NDP.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
For now, both
parties are effectively leaderless, with Wall announcing last month
his plans on resigning the province's premiership, and with the NDP
in the midst of a leadership election which will culminate next
Spring.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><b>Profile </b></i>
</h3>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Saskatoon Fairview is a middle class suburban riding on the west-side
of Saskatoon. Most the riding was built up in the 1960s and 1970s
following the area being annexed by the city. It continues to grow to
this day with new developments being built in the Kensington and
Blairmore neighbourhoods. Its older, core neighbourhoods are (from
north to south) Confederation Park, Pacific Heights and Parkridge.
The riding also contains part of the Massey Place neighbourhood,
which was added to the riding before the last election after
redistribution.
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-qwzl6_DvXCo/WbGk6d653NI/AAAAAAAADaE/vE8TqKDfzt4Uq5b0X9wnzCk2cJWEvE0DgCLcBGAs/s1600/Saskatoon%2BFairview%2BMLA%2Blist.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="257" data-original-width="517" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-qwzl6_DvXCo/WbGk6d653NI/AAAAAAAADaE/vE8TqKDfzt4Uq5b0X9wnzCk2cJWEvE0DgCLcBGAs/s1600/Saskatoon%2BFairview%2BMLA%2Blist.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Saskatoon MLA list since 1967 (previously Saskatoon was a multiple member seat)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The riding is a traditional NDP seat, only voting for right wing
parties in landslide elections, specifically 1982, 2011 and 2016.
Even in 2011 and 2016 the race in Saskatoon Fairview was close, with
the Saskatchewan Party winning it by just five points and three
points respectively. With its current borders, the 2011 election
would've been just as close as in 2016 (three point difference). The
two-party swing between the elections was just 0.1% to the NDP, which
was the exact same as the province-wide swing between both elections.
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The riding's main political cleavage runs down 22 Street, with the
area north of that street being more friendly to the NDP and the area
south of that street being more conservative leaning. The
socio-economic and political differences between both sides of the
street are fairly minimal, but large enough to have shown up in
recent elections due to how close they have been in the riding. Even
the last federal election was close, with my calculations showing the
NDP having narrowly won more votes in Fairview than the Conservatives
(37% to 36% respectively), with the Liberals winning 24% of the vote. </div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-iLRK_2Kl0wo/WbGlQIAVr7I/AAAAAAAADaI/MkKhviyU2OkS0uP9ngiB2al5JM_VMKeRQCLcBGAs/s1600/Saskatoon%2BFairview%2Bneighbourhood%2Bchart%2Bmap.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="698" data-original-width="1073" height="416" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-iLRK_2Kl0wo/WbGlQIAVr7I/AAAAAAAADaI/MkKhviyU2OkS0uP9ngiB2al5JM_VMKeRQCLcBGAs/s640/Saskatoon%2BFairview%2Bneighbourhood%2Bchart%2Bmap.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Results by neighbourhood (2016 provincial and 2015 federal elections)<br />
Click to enlarge</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
In both the 2015 federal election and the 2016 provincial election,
both Confederation Park and Pacific Heights narrowly went NDP, while
Parkridge voted for the Conservatives and the Saskatchewan Party by
seven points and 10 points respectively. While only partly in the
riding, Massey Place is the most pro-NDP neighbourhood, perhaps owing
to the fact that it was it was in an NDP seat before being
redistributed into Saskatoon Fairview. The new Blaimore SC
development is becoming more NDP friendly as it grows, while the new
Kensington neighbourhood is attracting more conservative voters, but
was also the Liberal's best neighbourhood in both the last federal
and provincial elections.
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The political difference between the northern and southern parts of
the riding is a result of its demographics. Massey Place has a median
income of $29,000 (according to the 2010 National Household Survey)
which is slightly below the provincial median, while Confederation
Park and Pacific Heights have median incomes of $30,000 and $31,000
respectively. However, Parkridge in the south of the riding has a
marginally higher median income of $34,000. Parkridge is also Whiter
than the rest of the riding; It is 75% White, while the rest of the
riding ranges from 60% to 66% White. Meanwhile, Confederation Park in
the north part of the riding is especially diverse, with Indigenous
Canadians making up 17% of the population and Filipinos making up 14%
of the population. One other difference about Parkridge is that it is
a newer neighbourhood, being built up in the 1980s and 1990s, while
the northern neighbourhoods were built in the 1960s and 1970s.
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<h3 style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><b>Outlook</b></i>
</h3>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The NDP looks to recapture this riding with their candidate, Vicki
Mowat who also ran there in 2016. She works as an executive assistant
at the University of Saskatchewan, and defeated two other candidates
for the nomination. Looking to retain the seat for the Saskatchewan
Party is school trustee Cameron Scott. The Liberals, Greens and the
somehow-not-dead-yet Progressive Conservatives are also running
candidates, but should not be a factor. Despite the fact the Liberals
got a quarter of the vote in the riding in the 2015 federal election,
their provincial counterparts are not well organized at the moment.
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
There have been no polls published of the by-election race, and there
has not been as much excitement as the Saskatoon Meewasin election in
the Spring. To me, this is a sign of a probable NDP victory. The
last election in Fairview may have been a close one, but it was only
won by the Saskatchewan Party because the province-wide result was a
landslide. With provincial polls suggesting the NDP is in a much
better position, they should have no problem winning the seat. We
will know for certain after polls close at 8pm (10pm Eastern).
</div>
Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-58935151419439136862017-06-20T14:54:00.000-04:002017-06-20T14:54:40.498-04:00Point Doulgas by-election: Post mortem
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
I haven't made many
“post-election analysis” posts on this blog, but it's never too
late to start, right? As expected, the NDP managed to win last week's
provincial by-election in Point Douglas, Manitoba. A seat they have
never lost, and which gave them their best result out of all ridings
in the 2016 provincial election. Even though the NDP won, the
by-election result was a bit of a disappointment for the party, as
they won less than 50% of the vote for the first time in the riding's
history.
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kxvLCY_Ry30/WUlusix9TxI/AAAAAAAADZc/n9I4oOxDxbML51y0zlgGJ5Tr-QFAoO_OACLcBGAs/s1600/point%2Bdouglas%2B2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="756" data-original-width="820" height="295" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kxvLCY_Ry30/WUlusix9TxI/AAAAAAAADZc/n9I4oOxDxbML51y0zlgGJ5Tr-QFAoO_OACLcBGAs/s320/point%2Bdouglas%2B2017.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Preliminary results
show the NDP's Bernadette Smith winning 44% of the vote (down from
58% in 2016), with the Liberal's John Cacayuran winning 29% of the
vote in second place (up from 19%). This was the Liberal's best
showing in the riding since the 1990 election. The Tories finished
third with 16% of the vote, only down a quarter of a percentage point
from 2016. The Greens finished in fifth, behind the libertarian
Manitoba Party. Overall turnout was down 10% from last year's
election, to just 32%. While bad, it's not unusual of for
by-elections to have turnouts in the low 30s, and considering how low
turnout usually is in this riding, it's not that bad.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Elections Manitoba
published the preliminary results by polling division, which has
allowed me to delve deep into the results to see just what happened
on election day. I sure hope they used the same poll map as in the
last provincial election.
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TKcL3jMVZ6U/WUluzLy9IhI/AAAAAAAADZg/zvGi6Rif3TAHmI_HIZMeFDOEpo99zvqygCLcBGAs/s1600/point%2Bdouglas%2Bdemos.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="771" data-original-width="739" height="640" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TKcL3jMVZ6U/WUluzLy9IhI/AAAAAAAADZg/zvGi6Rif3TAHmI_HIZMeFDOEpo99zvqygCLcBGAs/s640/point%2Bdouglas%2Bdemos.png" width="612" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Race and income by census tract (2011 National Household Survey) </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Except for the one
polling division in the southeast corner of the riding, Point
Douglas' electoral geography is usually quite homogeneous, as the NDP
has historically swept almost every poll in this riding. Last week's
by-election did identify a political cleavage in the riding, that I
believe is most likely based on ethnic lines. The Liberals ended up
winning 8 of the 40 polls in the riding, and tying the NDP in one
other. Most of these poll wins came from the northwest part of the
riding, which has a lower Aboriginal population than the rest of the
riding, and a higher Filipino population. This part of the riding is
over one-quarter Filipino, which is the highest proportion of
Filipinos in the riding. Most of the rest of the riding has a large
Aboriginal population (with about 50% of the population in these
areas being Native), and these areas stuck with the NDP, who just so
happened to be running an Aboriginal candidate. The poll in the
southeast corner of the riding stuck with the Tory candidate. This
one poll is in an area that is very different from the rest of the
riding socioeconomically, with an average income of over $60,000
compared to the low $20,000 range in most of the rest of the riding.
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Z92eGemM64s/WUlu_tgFqeI/AAAAAAAADZk/lxtUVcSlK6s7915S83pdOUXGiXhiuJpFACLcBGAs/s1600/point%2Bdouglas%2B%25282016%2B-%2B2017%2529%2Bswing.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="756" data-original-width="820" height="368" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Z92eGemM64s/WUlu_tgFqeI/AAAAAAAADZk/lxtUVcSlK6s7915S83pdOUXGiXhiuJpFACLcBGAs/s400/point%2Bdouglas%2B%25282016%2B-%2B2017%2529%2Bswing.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The swing map
reinforces my theory of Filipino voters switching their allegiances
to the Liberals. Some polls in the northwest of the riding saw up to
30% swings away from the NDP. In fact the poll which was the NDP's
best in 2016 was even won by the Liberals! That's not to say it was
all bad news for the NDP, as a few polls actually swung in their
direction. One poll even saw a nearly 30% swing away from the
Liberals! These swings to the NDP came from areas that are the most
Aboriginal in the riding, and are also among the poorest parts of the
riding.
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bSGivvDEf4g/WUlvH62c8HI/AAAAAAAADZo/lwbmJTLarhk7sfEP4D4nk36ir6ENxYNjQCLcBGAs/s1600/point%2Bdouglas%2B2017%2Bturnout.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="756" data-original-width="820" height="368" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bSGivvDEf4g/WUlvH62c8HI/AAAAAAAADZo/lwbmJTLarhk7sfEP4D4nk36ir6ENxYNjQCLcBGAs/s400/point%2Bdouglas%2B2017%2Bturnout.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Contributing to the
election results was a likely turnout difference between Filipino and
Aboriginal voters, as the northwest part of the riding saw the
highest election day turnout, while the poorest and most Aboriginal
parts of the riding tended to see the lowest turnout. In fact, there
is a clear correlation between swing and turnout; areas that swung
the most to the Liberals had a higher turnout, while those areas that
had the lowest turnout swung to the NDP (or at least had a lower
swing to the Liberals).
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
What does this all
mean for Manitoba politics going forward? Well, not too much, as both
the Liberals and NDP are leaderless at the moment. However, it does
expose a potential ethnic cleavage in Winnipeg's north end, which may
cut into the NDP's dominance of this working class part of the city.
We've already seen the Liberals not only make inroads, but sweep this
part of the city in the last federal election. I'm not saying they
will do this on the provincial level, but winning over Filipino
voters will help the Liberals win a few more seats in the region.</div>
Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-6707281854031911382017-06-13T15:41:00.004-04:002017-06-13T15:57:34.080-04:00Point Douglas by-election preview<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Hello readers, it's been a while since my last blog post, due to
being quite busy with work, but now that summer approaches, I have a
bit more free time to focus on elections across this great country of
ours. Of course, summer means a great lack of elections. Oh well.
Anyway, those of you who follow me on Twitter will know that I have
still been making maps and charts, something that I much prefer over
writing, to be honest. It's a lot easier to provide analysis in 140
characters or less!</div>
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<br /></div>
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--- </div>
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<br /></div>
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</div>
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<br />
Today, Manitoba is seeing its first provincial
by-election since the Progressive Conservatives were swept to power
in last year's provincial election. The governing Tories have
remained fairly popular over the last year, and enjoy a sizable lead
in the polls, thanks to a split opposition, and the fact that both
the NDP and Liberals are leaderless at the moment, with both parties
set to elect new leaders in the Fall.
</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
Today's by-election is in the riding of Point Douglas, perhaps
the safest NDP seat in the whole province. In last year's election,
the NDP saw its largest share of the vote out of any riding, when
they won the seat with 58% of the vote. In the 2011 election, it was
the NDP's second best riding in the province, when 73% of voters
backed the party. Most of the riding has voted NDP in every election
since the party was created, and for its predecessor the Co-Operative
Commonwealth Federation (CCF) before that, going back to when single
member constituencies were created in Winnipeg for the 1958 election.
Even before that, the CCF would regularly win seats in this part of
Winnipeg, which has a long working class history.
</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Point Douglas is located in Winnipeg's notorious north end, and is
named for a bend in the Red River. The Red River forms the eastern
boundary of the riding, while the northern boundary is formed by
Church Street and the western boundary mostly follows Sinclair
Street. The southern boundary follows the CPR Winnipeg Yard, and then
follows Main Street south to Lombard Avenue, and then east to the Red
River. This diversion creates a bit of a “panhandle” in the
southeast of the riding. While this unites all of Point Douglas
together, it lumps two very socioeconomically different
neighbourhoods together.
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The riding is one of the poorest in the province, with most census
tracts reporting an average annual income of less than $25,000. One
exception is the South Point Douglas area (the aforementioned
“panhandle”), which reported an average income of $63,000 in
2010. The riding has a very large First Nations population, as well
as a sizable Filipino population.</div>
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</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wMQMtRjdx1Q/WUA_BfqQAlI/AAAAAAAADZI/qmQ0I6b8V6UkiHHFJuC42CEAKMv-pD5sgCLcBGAs/s1600/point%2Bdouglas%2B-%2Bresults%2Bby%2Bneighbourhood%2Bmap.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1311" data-original-width="1227" height="640" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wMQMtRjdx1Q/WUA_BfqQAlI/AAAAAAAADZI/qmQ0I6b8V6UkiHHFJuC42CEAKMv-pD5sgCLcBGAs/s640/point%2Bdouglas%2B-%2Bresults%2Bby%2Bneighbourhood%2Bmap.png" width="603" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Results by neighbourhood (2016 provincial and 2015 federal elections)<br />
Click to enlarge</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<br />
In the last two
elections, the NDP won nearly every single poll in the riding. In 2011 the NDP won all but one poll, and in 2016, the lost just two. In 2016, the Liberals won the Lord Dufferin Park apartments, while the furthest southerly poll has voted for the Tories in both
elections. This poll covers the Exchange District and Civic Centre
neighbourhoods, located right next to Downtown. In federal elections,
Point Douglas usually always votes NDP. However, in the 2015
election, the area switched allegiances en masse to the Liberals,
thanks in part to the popularity of Winnipeg North MP Kevin
Lemoureux, whose support base had previously been further west in the
district. Lamoureux won 62% of the vote in Point Douglas in 2011.
<br />
<br />
In both the 2011 and 2016 elections, the NDP won a
majority of votes in every neighbourhood except the South Point
Douglas area, where they still managed to win pluralities in both
elections. In the 2015 federal election, the Liberals won a majority
of the vote in every neighbourhood, with North Point Douglas being
their worst at 55% of the vote. North Point Douglas was the NDP's
best neighbourhood in the 2016 provincial election (63%) and second
best in 2015, after Lord Selkirk Park. Interestingly, Lord Selkirk
Park was the Liberals' best neighbourhood in the last two provincial
elections. The Tories typically do the best in the South Point
Douglas area, winning 35% of the vote in 2016 and 41% in 2011.
However, their best neighbourhood in the federal election was
actually St. John's Park, winning just 18% of the vote. The Greens
also do their best in the South Point Douglas area, winning nearly
10% of the vote there in 2016.
</div>
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<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-O-mjCc7bRuI/WUA_O_lID3I/AAAAAAAADZM/YWMzj4SFsFQBCF4km6ragt6mHWfUfAZgQCLcBGAs/s1600/point%2Bdouglas%2Bmlas.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="288" data-original-width="494" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-O-mjCc7bRuI/WUA_O_lID3I/AAAAAAAADZM/YWMzj4SFsFQBCF4km6ragt6mHWfUfAZgQCLcBGAs/s1600/point%2Bdouglas%2Bmlas.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Point Douglas representation history (since 1958)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Point Douglas was vacated last January when its MLA, Kevin Chief
resigned citing family reasons. He had represented the seat since
2011. Since the riding was re-created in 1990, Point Douglas has
continuously been represented by members of the First Nations
community, as both Chief and his predecessor, George Hickes are
Aboriginals.
</div>
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<span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">The
NDP hopes to continue the riding's tradition of electing First
Nations MLAs, with their candidate Bernadette Smith. Smith's
credentials include pushing for an inquiry into missing and murdered
indigenous women, and advocacy for women's and indigenous rights. The
Liberals are running John Cacuyaran, a former staffer for MP Maryann
Mihychuk. The Tories are running electrician Jodi Moskal, the Greens
are running </span></span>Sabrina Koehn Binesi and the libertarian
“Manitoba Party” is running their leader, Gary Marshall.
</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
This should be an
NDP hold, but turnout will be a big factor in this riding. The NDP
can usually count on the support from First Nations residents in the
riding, and it will help that they have an Aboriginal candidate. The
NDP's main competition will be from the Liberals, who are notably not
running a First Nations candidate. The Liberals' poll numbers are
currently just below the NDP in province-wide polling, which would
not ordinarily be enough to take this riding, but will be enough to
ensure a second place finish, which they did not get in 2011 (but did
get in 2016). That is not to say that this riding could not go
Liberal in the future, as the federal election results prove that
this is more than possible. But provincial politics in Manitoba is
much differently aligned than in federal elections, and the
provincial Liberal Party is too unorganized to pick this seat up.
</div>
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We'll see who wins
when polls close at 8pm (9pm Eastern).
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<br /></div>
Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-12516128088768202782016-11-17T17:32:00.000-05:002016-11-17T17:32:06.359-05:00Ontario provincial by-election preview (Ottawa-Vanier and Niagara West-Glanbrook)
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
Today there are a couple of provincial by-elections being held in
Ontario, one in the riding of Ottawa—Vanier and one in Niagara
West—Glanbrook. Ottawa—Vanier was vacated in June when its MPP,
Madeleine Meilleur announced her retirement. Meilleur, a Liberal
represented the riding since 2003 and served in the cabinets of both
Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne. Niagara West—Glanbrook was
vacated in September when its MPP, Tim Hudak resigned to become the
CEO of the Ontario Real Estate Association. Hudak was the leader of
the Progressive Conservatives from 2009 to 2014, leading the party in
the last two provincial elections to disappointing defeats. Hudak had
been an MPP since 1995.
</div>
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<br />
<br />
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The governing Liberals have continued to slide in the polls in recent
months. In September, they lost a key by-election in
Scarborough—Rouge River to the Tories, in what had been a safe
Liberal seat. Since then, province-wide polling has shown that they
have dropped at least 10 more points, with the most recent Mainstreet
Research poll putting them in third place behind the NDP. Today's
by-elections are in safe seats, but it will be interesting to see the
swings against the Liberals in both ridings, and how well the two
opposition parties gain at their expense.
</div>
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<h2 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<i><b>Ottawa—Vanier</b></i></h2>
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-iEIPH2xJb1U/WC4ulJA-0pI/AAAAAAAADM0/pbzsKsdklUc1ID4h8lWYHKgHwpVitH9DgCLcB/s1600/Ottawa-Vanier%2B2014.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-iEIPH2xJb1U/WC4ulJA-0pI/AAAAAAAADM0/pbzsKsdklUc1ID4h8lWYHKgHwpVitH9DgCLcB/s400/Ottawa-Vanier%2B2014.png" width="388" /></a></div>
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<b>Geography</b></h3>
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Ottawa—Vanier is located in the east end of Ottawa, running from
the Rideau Canal in the west to Green's Creek in the east. The
northern boundary is the Ottawa River, while the southern boundary
follows Highway 417, Blair Road and Montreal Road. The riding is
socioeconomically very diverse; it contains Ottawa's oldest
neighbourhood (Lowertown) in the west, post war suburbs in the east,
some of Ottawa's poorest neighbourhoods and also Ottawa's richest
neighbourhood (Rockcliffe Park). The riding is home to both the
normal residence of the Prime Minister (24 Sussex) and the Governor
General (Rideau Hall). The riding is named for its largest
neighbourhood, Vanier which used to be an independent city until it
amalgamated with Ottawa in 2001. Rockcliffe Park was also an
independent municipality until amalgamation. The post-war suburbs in
the east and southeast parts of the riding were formerly in the City
of Gloucester until amalgamation. Other notable neighbourhoods in
the riding include Sandy Hill, the By Ward Market, New Edinburgh,
Manor Park, Overbrook, Beacon Hill North and Pineview. The riding is
also home to the University of Ottawa.
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<br />
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<b>Demographics</b></h3>
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<span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Ottawa-Vanier
is one of the most Francophone ridings in the province, </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">with
nearly one third (31%) of the riding having French as their mother
tongue. Vanier itself is almost 50% French, but the surrounding
neighbourhoods also have high French populations. Lowertown
historically has had a high Francophone population, but it has
decreased in recent decades. The riding is still a majority Anglo,
with 52% of the population having English as their first language.
Arabic is the next most spoken mother tongue at 4%. 72% of the
riding is White, with much of this population having French, English,
Irish and Scottish origins. 10% of the riding is Black, while there
are significant populations of Arabs, South Asians, Aboriginals and
Chinese. Nearly two-thirds of the riding (66%) is Christian, with 45%
of the population being Catholic. 8% of the riding is Muslim, while
23% have no religion. </span></span>
</div>
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<span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Despite
the presence of </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">wealthy
</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Rockcliffe
Park in the riding, Ottawa—Vanier is very much working class. T</span></span>he
median household income in the riding is $57,000 (provincial median
is $66,000) while the average income is $77,000 (provincial average
is $86,000). The median individual income ($32,000) is slightly
higher than the provincial median ($31,000). Due to the riding's
close proximity to the Downtown, nearly a quarter of the labour force
works in public administration, dwarfing all other industries.
</div>
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<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
History</h3>
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Owing to its large Francophone, working class and public sector
populations, Ottawa—Vanier and its predecessor ridings have
reliably voted Liberal throughout its history. Today, it is one of
the safest Liberal ridings in the province. It has voted Liberal
continuously since 1971 (and has won a majority of the vote in every
election since), and was the party's 8<sup>th</sup> best seat in
2014. In that election, Meilleur won 56% of the vote, while her PC
opponent won 22% and the NDP candidate won 13%. Once in a while the
riding has elected Tories, but only once in a blue moon. Since last
winning the riding in 1967, the PCs have only broken over 30% of the
vote once (in 1999). The NDP has never won the riding, but has on
occasion finished second. They have only broken 20% once in the
riding's history though, and that was in 1990, when the party was
swept in to power. Owing to its sizable and historical francophone
populations, the riding has elected only Francophones to Queen's Park
since 1911.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
Until 1908, all of Ottawa was represented in Queen's Park by the
riding of Ottawa (which at times also included surrounding villages
that would later be absorbed by the city). In 1908, the riding was
split into two parts, Ottawa East and Ottawa West. Ottawa East would
naturally include the eastern parts of the city, namely Sandy Hill,
Lowertown and New Edinburgh. In 1933 it was expanded to include Old
Ottawa East and a strange westerly protrusion which included
Parliament Hill, LeBreton Flats and Mechanicsville (but not the rest
of Downtown Ottawa). In 1966 the boundaries changed again, and the
riding would only include Sandy Hill, Lowertown, New Edinburgh, as
well as the city of Eastview which would become Vanier in 1969. Over
the next few decades, the riding grew in size, gaining Forbes and
Overbrook in 1975, Carson Grove, Cyrville and Quarries in 1987, and
finally Pineview and Beacon Hill North in 1999 when the riding became
known as Ottawa—Vanier (matching the federal riding). </div>
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<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ao3w5gOdhew/WC4urelzUNI/AAAAAAAADM4/dOKJztWPFiQBqhH0VMOj0o6BICDir8sSgCLcB/s1600/ottawa-vanier%2Bmpp%2Blist.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ao3w5gOdhew/WC4urelzUNI/AAAAAAAADM4/dOKJztWPFiQBqhH0VMOj0o6BICDir8sSgCLcB/s640/ottawa-vanier%2Bmpp%2Blist.png" width="618" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">List of MPPs for the area</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<br />
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</div>
<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<b>Political geography</b></h3>
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One look at the 2014 map of the riding, and one would think that
Ottawa—Vanier is a pretty homogenous place, as nearly every single
poll voted Liberal. In fact, only three polls voted Tory, and just
one voted NDP. This is how the riding usually goes though. The
Liberals win nearly every single poll, while the NDP and the Tories
are lucky to win a handful across the riding. Usually, the Tories
will win a few suburban polls in the east of the riding, or maybe a
poll or two in Rockcliffe Park, while the NDP might win a few polls
in Sandy Hill or Lowertown. In 2014, the Liberals won every single
neighbourhood in the riding, winning a majority of the vote in most
of them. Meilleur's best neighbourhood was Viscount Alexander Park,
where she won 63% of the vote. Her worst neighbourhood was the
wealthier Rothwell Heights neighbourhood, where she still won 46%,
but lost two polls. Rothwell Heights was the best Tory neighbourhood,
where they won one poll and 39% of the vote. Their worst
neighbourhood was Sandy Hill where they won 15% of the vote. The best
neighbourhood for the NDP was Sandy Hill, thanks in part to a large
student population. They won 17% of the vote there. The worst NDP
neighbourhood was Rockcliffe Park, where they won just 4% of the
vote.
</div>
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<br />
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-AN108yuz8EE/WC4u2Kh7iJI/AAAAAAAADM8/pB-abZPrMQgCZUQTu7mOJuLTKKp-ANYUwCLcB/s1600/ottawa-vanier%2Bresults%2Bby%2Bneighbourhood%2B2014.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-AN108yuz8EE/WC4u2Kh7iJI/AAAAAAAADM8/pB-abZPrMQgCZUQTu7mOJuLTKKp-ANYUwCLcB/s1600/ottawa-vanier%2Bresults%2Bby%2Bneighbourhood%2B2014.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">2014 provincial election results by neighbourhood</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
Federally, Ottawa—Vanier has seen different political maps in
recent elections. While 2015 was a Liberal wash here, the 2011
election was much more interesting as it was relatively close with
the Liberals winning 38% of the vote, the NDP winning 29% and the
Conservatives 27%. The Liberals may have won the riding, but you
wouldn't know it by looking at a map. The NDP won most of the working
class western part of the riding (Sandy Hill, Vanier, Lowertown and
Overbrook), while the Conservatives won much of the middle class
suburbs in the eastern part of the riding (such as Beacon Hill and
Pineview). The Liberals won the wealthier northern neighbourhoods of
the riding like Manor Park and New Edinburgh, and the won the riding
by finishing 2<sup>nd</sup> place everywhere else.
</div>
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<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
Outlook</h3>
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No matter the outcome of today's by-election, the riding will still
be represented by another Francophone, as all of the major parties
have nominated one. Even with their low poll numbers, the Liberals
are still the favourites to win, thanks to the riding's demographics
and long history of voting Liberal. I should also note anecdotally,
the Ottawa area is far removed from the world of Toronto-centred
provincial politics, and so anger against the provincial government
is not as strong here. The probable winner of today's by-election is
Liberal candidate Nathalie Des Rosiers, the dean of common law at the
University of Ottawa. Her strongest challenge will likely come from
the Tory candidate, <span style="font-weight: normal;">André Marin
</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">who is the former ombudsman
of the province. </span> The NDP's candidate is Claude Bisson, a
former RCMP officer and brother of Timmins—James Bay MPP Gilles
Bisson. The Green Party candidate is Raphaël Morin, who ran for the
Greens in last year's federal election in his home riding of Orleans.
</div>
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<h2 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<i><b>Niagara West—Glanbrook</b></i></h2>
<h2 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<i><b> </b></i></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-gmH7O3pw4gQ/WC4u-M9q_6I/AAAAAAAADNA/jFzEp0V5ctIA_l2fJksE-4CH4OVLoDc_wCLcB/s1600/niagara%2Bwest-glanbrook%2B2014.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="323" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-gmH7O3pw4gQ/WC4u-M9q_6I/AAAAAAAADNA/jFzEp0V5ctIA_l2fJksE-4CH4OVLoDc_wCLcB/s400/niagara%2Bwest-glanbrook%2B2014.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<br />
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<h3 style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm; text-decoration: none;">
<b>Geography</b></h3>
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Niagara West—Glanbrook is located on the south shore of Lake
Ontario on the Niagara Peninsula, nestled between the southern and
eastern edges of Hamilton and the western edges of the St.
Catharines-Niagara metropolitan area. The riding is home to a number
of bedroom communities serving both metros, and all of the rural area
in between. The western third of the riding lies within the city
limits of Hamilton, consisting of the former Township of Glanbrook
and the part of the former city of Stoney Creek south of the Niagara
escarpment. Both of these areas were amalgamated into Hamilton proper
in 2001. This region of the riding contains newer subdivisions,
spilling out from the core of Hamilton, a couple of commuter villages
(Mount Hope and Binbrook) and a large swath of rural area.
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm; text-decoration: none;">
<br />
</div>
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Along the north shore of the riding are the municipalities of Grimsby
and Lincoln, which are a mix of bedroom communities (such as Grimsby
itself, Beamsville and Vineland) and rural areas. Toward the interior
south of the riding is the Township of West Lincoln, which is almost
entirely rural except for the community of Smithville. And finally,
in the southeast corner of the riding is the Town of Pelham, which is
basically just a suburb of neighbouring Welland. Most of the
population of Pelham lives in the community of Fonthill.
</div>
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<br />
<br />
</div>
<h3 style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm; text-decoration: none;">
<b>Demographics</b></h3>
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<span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Being
a mostly rural/small town riding, Niagara West—Glanbrook is a
fairly homogeneously White, Anglo-Saxon, Christian riding. 93% of the
riding is White, with the main ethnic groups in the riding being
English, Scottish, Irish, Dutch, Italian, German and French. 86% of
the riding has English as their mother tongue, with Italian and Dutch
being the next two biggest languages at 2% each. Over three-quarters
(76%) of the riding is Christian. 32% of the riding is Catholic, 10%
are United Church and 9% are Anglican. 21% have no religion. The
riding is quite a bit more wealthy than the province as a whole. </span></span></span>The
median household income in the riding is $80,000 (provincial median
is $66,000) while the median individual income is $45,000 (provincial
median is $31,000). Manufacturing is the largest industry, with
health care and social assistance not being too far behind.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<br />
<br />
</div>
<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
History</h3>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
As a riding, Niagara West—Glanbrook is a new creation, born in time
for the 2007 election. A bare majority of the district (Glanbrook,
Stoney Creek and Grimsby) came from the previous riding of Stoney
Creek, while Lincoln and West Lincoln were previously in the riding
of Erie—Lincoln and Pelham was in the riding of Niagara Centre. Tim
Hudak had previously represented Erie—Lincoln, which included his
hometown of Fort Erie. Fort Erie had been redistributed into the more
Liberal-friendly Niagara Falls riding, and instead of running there,
he ran in the new Niagara West riding, which had notionally voted PC
in 2003. Hudak easily won the seat in 2007, 2011 and in 2014. He won
a majority of the vote in both 2007 and 2011, but just 42% in 2014.
He had been helped out by a vote split between the Liberals and NDP
who won 28% and 22% respectively. The Liberals have always finished
second here (ranging from 26% to 36% of the vote), while the NDP has
always finished third (with results ranging from 12% to 22%).
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
Historically, the western part of the Niagara region in Ontario was
found in the riding of Lincoln until that riding was split up in 1999
when provincial ridings were redistributed to match their federal
counterparts. Lincoln was mostly a Tory seat for much of its history,
though it did go Liberal once in a while and voted for the NDP in
1990. For most of its history, Lincoln contained the municipalities
of Lincoln, West Lincoln and Grimsby (and sometimes Pelham), while
the Hamilton part of the riding was located in Wentworth East (also
known as just Wentworth), which included Glanbrook, all of Stoney
Creek and sometimes part of suburban Hamilton. While Lincoln usually
voted Tory, Wentworth often voted NDP.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-LKuEYQ47gSM/WC4vFlOk8BI/AAAAAAAADNE/bQcDcK_lOa02WvWojMQ4dFjturbqWsoUwCLcB/s1600/niagara%2Bwest-glanbrook%2Bmpp%2Blist.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-LKuEYQ47gSM/WC4vFlOk8BI/AAAAAAAADNE/bQcDcK_lOa02WvWojMQ4dFjturbqWsoUwCLcB/s1600/niagara%2Bwest-glanbrook%2Bmpp%2Blist.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">List of MPPs for the area</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<h3>
</h3>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
</div>
<h3>
</h3>
<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;">
<b> </b></span></h3>
<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;"><b>Political geography</b></span></h3>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
There are two kinds of political divides in this riding: rural vs.
urban and west (Hamilton) vs. east. The eastern part of this riding,
which is mostly rural or urban bedroom communities vote more
conservative, while the western part of the riding, which is
influenced by the progressive voting patterns of urban Hamilton is
less conservative. Urban areas, even the commuter towns are less
conservative while the rural areas surrounding them are much more
conservative. </div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-nhP5aCFxCKY/WC4vNecI0aI/AAAAAAAADNI/Ti_a0Gyk6HYuqpaRfg62MZj_m8P5OQyewCLcB/s1600/niagara%2Bwest-glanbrook%2B2014%2Bresults%2Bby%2Bneighbourhood.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-nhP5aCFxCKY/WC4vNecI0aI/AAAAAAAADNI/Ti_a0Gyk6HYuqpaRfg62MZj_m8P5OQyewCLcB/s1600/niagara%2Bwest-glanbrook%2B2014%2Bresults%2Bby%2Bneighbourhood.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">2014 election results by community</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
In the 2014 election, Hudak's strongest region of the riding was West
Lincoln Township, where he won 59% of the vote. The rural part of the
township was even better for him, as he won 62% of the vote there.
His worst region in the riding was in Stoney Creek, where he only won
26% of the vote, coming in third behind the Liberals (35%) and the
NDP (33%). Stoney Creek was the best region for both those parties.
The worst neighbourhood for Hudak was the Tirinity/Highland area of
Stoney Creek, where he won just 23% of the vote. The strongest
neighbourhood for the Liberals was actually in Glanbrook. The new
subdivision of Summit Park, which is located adjacent to Stoney Creek
gave the Liberals 41% of the vote. The worst part of the riding for
the Liberals was the rural part of West Lincoln, which gave them just
14%. The best neighbourhood for the NDP was Valley Park in Stoney
Creek, where they won 36% of the vote and the worst area was rural
Lincoln, where they won 14%.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
</div>
<h3>
</h3>
<h3>
<b>
<br><br>
</b><b>
</b></h3>
<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<b>
Outlook
</b></h3>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
With this riding being a pretty safe one to begin with for the
Tories, they should have no problem maintaining it in today's
by-election, especially considering their increased poll numbers. The
only caveat is that they are running a rather controversial candidate
in the 19 year old Sam Oosterhoff, who will become Ontario's youngest
MPP ever if he wins. Oosterhoff, a Brock University student won the
Tory nomination in a surprise upset, defeating former MP Rick Dykstra
and regional councillor Tony Quirk. Oosterhoff's candidacy has been
controversial due to his conservative views on abortion, same-sex
marriage and Ontario's new sex-ed curriculum. Despite his
controversial views, he will in all likelihood win the seat, meaning
the real race will be for second place between the Liberals and NDP.
Running for the Liberals is Hamilton lawyer Vicky Ringuette and
running for the NDP is former Hamilton police union leader Mike
Thomas. The NDP has never finished second in the riding in its short
history, but did finish second in the 2011 federal election. The
Green Party candidate is Donna Cridland, who lives in a neighbouring
riding.
</div>
<br />
<br />
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
Polls close in both ridings at 9pm.
</div>
Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-22580981138959591012016-10-26T14:07:00.000-04:002016-10-26T14:07:03.700-04:002016 Saskatchewan municipal elections today
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Voters in Saskatchewan's urban municipalities and odd-numbered rural
municipalities head to the polls today to vote in local elections
across the province's 16 cities, 146 towns, 260 villages and 154 of
the province's 296 rural municipalities to elect new mayors and
councils. Additionally, voters will also be voting in school board
elections to elect school trustees for Saskatchewan's 28 school
divisions (of which 19 are public, eight are Catholic and one is
French). Since the last elections in 2012, Saskatchewan's municipal
elections are now held every four years instead of three.
</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Here is a look at the elections in Saskatchewan's three largest
cities:
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Saskatoon</b></h3>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The most exciting mayoral race in the province will be in the
province's largest city of Saskatoon. There are three main candidates
running for mayor, and polls are showing a close three-way race
between them. The front-runner is mayor Don Atchison, who has been
mayor of the city since 2003. Atchison, an outspoken conservative,
could squeak out a victory thanks to a split in the vote on his left
between his main two rivals: city councillor Charlie Clark and
businesswoman Kelley Moore. Clark, who has NDP connections, is the
more progressive of the candidates, and represents the city's most
left wing ward, Ward 6, which covers the Downtown and Nutana
neighbourhoods of the city. Moore on the other hand is running on a
more centrist platform, highlighting fiscal responsibility and
sustainable planning in her platform. Both Mainstreet Research and
Insightrix have released recent polls of the race, and show
contradictory results. Both pollsters show Atchison with the lead;
Mainstreet gives Atchison 38% and Insightrix has him at 35%. Both
pollsters differ on who is in second place, though. Mainstreet has
Clark in second place at 33%, while Insightrix has Moore in second
place, just one point behind Atchison at 34%. Mainstreet puts Moore
further behind at just 25%, while Insightrix has Clark in a close
third place at 30%. These contradictory poll numbers mean that it
will be difficult for anti-Atchison voters to pick a candidate if
they want to get rid of the mayor. On the other hand, it may trigger
centrist Moore supporters to vote Atchison to stop Clark.
</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Nd-NUF9SCpM/WBDvZqR_C2I/AAAAAAAADJQ/bhyzuipYSvMMop0jRIAeRxYaEfe5i9gLwCLcB/s1600/saskatoon2016%2Bcandidates.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="162" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Nd-NUF9SCpM/WBDvZqR_C2I/AAAAAAAADJQ/bhyzuipYSvMMop0jRIAeRxYaEfe5i9gLwCLcB/s320/saskatoon2016%2Bcandidates.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Main mayoral candidates in Saskatoon</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The 2012 election in Saskatoon was also an exciting race, but between
just two main candidates: Atchison and public servant Tom Wolf. Wolf,
a public servant, ran on a pragmatic centre to centre-left platform.
Atchison squeaked out a narrow five-point victory over Wolf, and the
two candidates split the city's ten wards, with each candidate
winning five. Atchison won the five suburban wards located on the
southern, eastern and northern edges of the city, with his best ward
being Ward 9 in the city's southeast corner, picking up 61% of the
vote there. Wolf's best ward was Ward 6 in the centre of the city,
where he won 60% of the vote. </div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-h7aRpH5myfc/WBDvhzapIpI/AAAAAAAADJU/-twnb7fhyi47iRscwoU3L6fHYkYWK6_VwCLcB/s1600/saskatoon2012.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="459" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-h7aRpH5myfc/WBDvhzapIpI/AAAAAAAADJU/-twnb7fhyi47iRscwoU3L6fHYkYWK6_VwCLcB/s640/saskatoon2012.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Looking at Saskatoon's city council race, there are three wards which
will have open races with no incumbents: Ward 6 (Charlie Clark's
seat), Ward 8 and Ward 9. The incumbent in Ward 8 was Eric Olauson,
who was elected in the provincial election earlier this year for the
Saskatchewan Party. The incumbent in Ward 9 is Tiffany Paulsen who
had run for the Liberal Party in the 2004 federal election. The ward
map for 2016 has changed slightly, as the city has annexed some new
territory.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Z7He8Y0ZhXE/WBDvnrUNEBI/AAAAAAAADJY/ogUQHIO-6vUjYbnk-lpnSKWiTsvjwZ8sgCLcB/s1600/saskatoon%2Bward%2Bmap%2B%25282016%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="515" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Z7He8Y0ZhXE/WBDvnrUNEBI/AAAAAAAADJY/ogUQHIO-6vUjYbnk-lpnSKWiTsvjwZ8sgCLcB/s640/saskatoon%2Bward%2Bmap%2B%25282016%2529.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Map of Saskatoon's 10 wards</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Regina</b></h3>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Unlike the race for
mayor of Saskatoon, the mayoral election in Regina has been more of a
snooze-fest. One-term incumbent mayor Michael Fougere is set for a
landslide election, as is customary for popular mayors heading into
their second elections. The conservative-leaning Fougere had been a
long time city councillor representing Ward 4 in the southeast corner
of the city. He was first elected as mayor in 2012 with just 42% of
the vote, thanks to a split in the progressive vote between
candidates Marian Donnelly and Meka Okochi. Fougere won seven of the
city's ten wards en route to his re-election, while Donnelly won the
remaining three. The seven wards that Fougere won are all located in
the city's more conservative-leaning suburbs, while Donnelly won the
city's three inner-city wards. Fougere's best ward (and the only one
where he won a majority of the vote) was his home Ward 4, where he
picked up 58% of the vote. Donnelly's best ward was Ward 3, which
covers the city's Downtown. Donnelly would win 55% of the vote there
compared to just 20% for Fougere. Okochi's vote was generally even
across the city, and he failed to win any wards.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-woiRajV0mbE/WBDvv7QkM4I/AAAAAAAADJc/9J3DaZmJRq8vWlf5iTeEI2i6Ork3FkUhACLcB/s1600/regina%2B2016%2Bmayoral%2Bcandidates.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="172" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-woiRajV0mbE/WBDvv7QkM4I/AAAAAAAADJc/9J3DaZmJRq8vWlf5iTeEI2i6Ork3FkUhACLcB/s400/regina%2B2016%2Bmayoral%2Bcandidates.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Main mayoral candidates in Regina</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
For 2016, Fougere
should have no problem winning every ward in the city, if the only
poll of the race is to be believed. A Mainstreet Research poll
conducted earlier this month showed Fougere way ahead at 73%, while
his four opponents are all in single digits. His main opponent will
likely be Tony Fiacco, brother of former mayor Pat Fiacco and former
Saskatchewan Party candidate. The left wing vote will be split
between three candidates: businessman Wayne Ast, perennial mayoral
candidate Jim Elliott and former Green Party candidate and topless
rights activist Evangeline Gordron. The Mainstreet poll put Fiacco at
9%, Ast and Elliott at 8% and Godron at 2%.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uQfmKhccKvM/WBDv9O-kkSI/AAAAAAAADJg/rvka4PVQS5Ayh_VBo4pGYD5T9o0ju3pXgCLcB/s1600/regina2012.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="404" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uQfmKhccKvM/WBDv9O-kkSI/AAAAAAAADJg/rvka4PVQS5Ayh_VBo4pGYD5T9o0ju3pXgCLcB/s640/regina2012.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Regina City Council
has 11 seats, with ten ward councillors plus the mayor. Of the ten
wards, just two will have open races with no incumbents: Wards 3 and
6. Of note, Ward 6 has a total of 9 candidates running. The city of
Regina annexed some new territory since the last election, and as
such the ward map was tweaked slightly.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jD2SJFUKFXs/WBDwBV2WPZI/AAAAAAAADJk/U9CAfO2t6Tkaa40fJ_FsZOXOjvapGWNdQCLcB/s1600/regina%2Bward%2Bmap%2B%25282016%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="441" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jD2SJFUKFXs/WBDwBV2WPZI/AAAAAAAADJk/U9CAfO2t6Tkaa40fJ_FsZOXOjvapGWNdQCLcB/s640/regina%2Bward%2Bmap%2B%25282016%2529.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Map of Regina's 10 wards</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<h3>
</h3>
<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Prince Albert</b></h3>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bIfVUAjEF2I/WBDwKScps0I/AAAAAAAADJo/04XH7k0FiHAmG1nanDuMYKZkPZ0TA-1ggCLcB/s1600/prince%2Balbert%2B2016%2Bcandidates.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="161" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bIfVUAjEF2I/WBDwKScps0I/AAAAAAAADJo/04XH7k0FiHAmG1nanDuMYKZkPZ0TA-1ggCLcB/s400/prince%2Balbert%2B2016%2Bcandidates.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Prince Albert mayoral candidates</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
In Prince Albert,
one-term mayor Greg Dionne is being challenged by Ward 6 city
councillor Martin Ring, peace advocate Conrad Burns and former junior
hockey player Josh Morrow whose campaign has been criticized for
being “Trump” like for its “American-style” incivility.
Dionne, who was a city councillor before becoming ways, was first
elected to lead council in 2012 when he defeated then-incumbent mayor
Jim Scarrow by nearly 1100 votes. Dionne won every ward in the city,
doing especially well in the more NDP-friendly wards (1, 2, 3 and 4),
which cover the northern and central parts of the city. His best
ward was Ward 1, where he won 58% of the vote. His worst ward (and
Scarrow's best ward) was Ward 5, where he still beat Scarrow by a
47-44% margin. His worst wards are all located in parts of the city
that tend to vote for the Conservatives in federal elections and the
Saskatchewan Party in provincial elections.</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-QQAZGCBznGc/WBDwWBwxV_I/AAAAAAAADJs/XKqKhmJlbHESwXT4X3mMN5P7dzTZUP37QCLcB/s1600/princealbert2012.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="404" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-QQAZGCBznGc/WBDwWBwxV_I/AAAAAAAADJs/XKqKhmJlbHESwXT4X3mMN5P7dzTZUP37QCLcB/s640/princealbert2012.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Prince Albert's city
council has nine seats (eight councillors plus the mayor). Wards 6
and 7 have no incumbents running for re-election as Ward 6 councillor
Martin Ring is running for mayor and Ward 7 has been vacant since
January when its representative resigned for personal reasons. Ward 8
will have no election, as councillor Ted Zurakowski has been
acclaimed.</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xAap6YVhXEY/WBDwb-wKgeI/AAAAAAAADJw/V48L-DCWiC4H-SidRa2tGhLq2sE0eQG1QCLcB/s1600/princealbertwardmap.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xAap6YVhXEY/WBDwb-wKgeI/AAAAAAAADJw/V48L-DCWiC4H-SidRa2tGhLq2sE0eQG1QCLcB/s1600/princealbertwardmap.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Map of Prince Albert's 8 wards</td></tr>
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Polls close at 8pm
<i>Central Standard Time</i> in most municipalities. Saskatchewan
doesn't have daylight saving time, so there is a 2 hour difference,
meaning the polls close at 10pm Eastern.
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Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-89521188783332712952016-10-24T15:57:00.002-04:002016-10-24T15:57:50.902-04:00Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner federal by-election today
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Today marks the
first federal by-election of the 42<sup>nd</sup> Parliament, just as
Canada's new Liberal government enters its sophomore year. Voters in
the southern Alberta riding of Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner head
to the polls to elect a new Member of Parliament, following the death
of Conservative MP Jim Hillyer who died last Spring due to
cardiomyopathy. Hillyer was first elected to Parliament in 2011 in
the neighbouring riding of Lethbridge, and switched to the Medicine
Hat riding for the 2015 election when its boundaries shifted to
encompass his hometown of Raymond, located just south of Lethbridge.
While it pains me to speak ill of the dead, Hillyer's short tenure in
Parliament was criticized by even those in his party for his 'poor
service of his constituents'. When he first ran for office in 2011,
he was criticized for not attending any candidate debates and for
embellishing the truth in his campaign literature. It did not matter
though, as he was easily elected in both 2011 and 2015 (though in a
mostly different riding the second time), due to running in true blue
Conservative country: southern Alberta.
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-G6xmeYm_VPU/WA5jsCsqWcI/AAAAAAAADIE/17syOUIg3iMB6GXcUa0SWPW96mTYhHabwCLcB/s1600/Medicine%2BHat-Cardston-Warner%2Bguide%2Bmap.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="494" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-G6xmeYm_VPU/WA5jsCsqWcI/AAAAAAAADIE/17syOUIg3iMB6GXcUa0SWPW96mTYhHabwCLcB/s640/Medicine%2BHat-Cardston-Warner%2Bguide%2Bmap.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Map of the riding</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Since the 2015
federal election, the Justin Trudeau-led Liberals have enjoyed a
tremendous honeymoon period, and are still polling nearly ten points
higher than what they won in the last federal election, witch much of
this coming at the expense of the (for all intents and purposes)
leaderless NDP. The Conservatives, who are also leaderless, have not
been hurt by The Liberal honeymoon, as they are polling at about what
they won in 2015. Trudeau remains a very popular figure across the
country, and even has a large swath of adoring fans in southern
Alberta. While he is still mostly detested in that corner of the
country, a rally he attended two weeks ago in Medicine Hat attracted
nearly 2000 people.
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<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Geography</b></h3>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-EG46KIgSIak/WA5j3C9_qXI/AAAAAAAADII/RFXhazxgWccxK5oCLuUeClXsTwMCEolkgCLcB/s1600/medicine%2Bhat%2Bneighbourhoods.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="372" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-EG46KIgSIak/WA5j3C9_qXI/AAAAAAAADII/RFXhazxgWccxK5oCLuUeClXsTwMCEolkgCLcB/s400/medicine%2Bhat%2Bneighbourhoods.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Map of Medicine Hat neighbourhoods</td></tr>
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Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner can be found on the southern and
southeastern boundary of Alberta. It is shaped like a backward “L”,
with Saskatchewan on the east, and Montana on the south. In the west,
the riding begins at the Belly River, and wraps around the Lethbridge
area and Taber County, ending at CFB Suffield in the north. While
the riding appears to be rural, and many have claimed it is, this is
a misnomer. The City of Medicine Hat dominates the riding, as it is
home to nearly two thirds of the riding's population. The rest of the
riding is mostly empty ranching land, or oil and gas wells. Other
than Medicine Hat, the riding is home to a few smaller communities,
such as Cardston, Magrath, Raymond and Bow Island, while the Medicine
Hat suburb of Redcliff is the riding's second largest city or town.
The riding is also home to Canada's largest Indian Reserve (second
largest in population), Blood #148, a Blackfoot reserve which is home
to over 4000 people. The people in Blood #148 will be voting in their
second federal by-election in just over two years, as they were
previously located in the riding of Macleod which had a by-election
in June 2014.
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<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Demographics</b></h3>
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Except for about a 9% Aboriginal population, the riding is
overwhelmingly White. But despite this, the riding does have some
interesting cultural and ethnic demographics. The riding has the
highest ethnically German population in the country, with 36% of
people claiming it. Germans immigrated to southern Alberta in the
late 19<sup>th</sup> and early 20<sup>th</sup> centuries, and have
long since been integrated into the country. Still though, 7% of
residents indicate German as their first language in the census. This
makes German the riding's #2 language, and some rural areas in the
central part of the riding have large numbers (over 40%) of German
speakers. After German, the riding is also home to significant
populations with English, Scottish and Irish backgrounds. 10% of the
riding claims some sort of Aboriginal background, most of this being
Blackfoot. Blackfoot is the native tongue of about 1% of the riding.
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The riding also has an interesting religious makeup, as it is home to
Canada's largest Mormon population. Over a quarter of the riding is
considered “Other Christian”, with much of this is Mormon, which
was also the religion of Jim Hillyer. Mormons began settling the
western part of the riding in the late 19<sup>th</sup> Century, and
built the first Mormon Temple outside the United States in Cardston
in 1887. Hillyer's hometown of Raymond was also settled by Mormons.
The “other Christian” group also includes a sizable Mennonite
population who are the descendants of some of the early German
settlers to this region. In total, 72% of the riding is Christian,
including 21% being Catholic, and 10% being United Church. Over one
quarter of the riding has no religion.</div>
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The riding is poorer than the province as a whole. The median income
is about $30,000 compared to $36,000 for all of Alberta. The average
income is $40,000 which is over $10,000 less than the provincial
average. While the riding has a reputation for cattle ranches and
oil and gas extraction, the dominance of City of Medicine Hat in the
riding has resulted in the leading industries in the riding being
health care and social assistance, retail trade and construction.
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<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>History</b></h3>
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A riding known as “Medicine Hat” existed all the way from 1908
until the most recent redistribution before last year's election.
Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner was originally going to be named
just “Medicine Hat”, but the addition of the Cardston and Warner
areas, which have not traditionally been lumped in with Medicine Hat
in one riding meant that a name change was preferred.
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From 1905 when Alberta joined confederation until 1908, Medicine Hat,
then a town of 3000 people, was located in the riding of “Alberta
(provisional district)”. In 1908 a riding called “Medicine Hat”
was first created. This first Medicine Hat riding included a large
swath of southeastern Alberta, including Lethbridge (then a home to
2000 people). In the north, the riding extended as far as (but not
including) Hanna and as far as Strathmore in the west. Subsequent
redistributions shrunk the riding down further, with a new Lethbridge
riding being created in the west. The Cardston and Warner parts of
the current riding of Medicine Hat—Cardston--Warner were usually
located in the Lethbridge riding, but the Warner area was added to
Medicine Hat in the 1966 redistribution but was removed once again in
1987, joining back with the Lethbridge riding. In the 2013
redistribution, the Cardston area was added to the riding for the
first time since the 1908 redistribution and the Warner area was also
added back to the riding. Both of these regions were previously in
the Lethbridge riding. The 2013 redistribution also brought in the
Blood 148 Indian Reserve which was previously located in the Macleod
riding. To compensate, the Medicine Hat riding lost Taber and Newell
Counties (which includes Brooks) to the new riding of Bow River.
These counties have traditionally been part of the Medicine Hat
riding, and this region had been continuously part of the riding
since 1976. Also in 2013, the riding lost a small strip of territory
in the far north of the riding (between the Red Deer River and the
Suffield Air Force Base) to the new riding of Battle River—Crowfoot. </div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-glw4X9nOz1U/WA5mMoAx6UI/AAAAAAAADIY/V7S41aD4Oi8CemaaB1VjgXG7VhJWS4vAACLcB/s1600/medicine%2Bhat%2Bmps.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-glw4X9nOz1U/WA5mMoAx6UI/AAAAAAAADIY/V7S41aD4Oi8CemaaB1VjgXG7VhJWS4vAACLcB/s1600/medicine%2Bhat%2Bmps.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">MPs for Medicine Hat and Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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In its early days, the riding was competitive for the Liberals and
even was won by the Progressive Party in 1921. However, following
World War II, right wing parties have won every single election in
Medicine Hat except for the first Trudeaumania in 1968. That election
was an anomaly though, as the riding's MP, Bud Olson had switched
from the quickly dying Social Credit Party to the Liberals, and was
elected thanks to the splitting of the right wing vote between the
SoCreds and the Progressive Conservatives. Olson had only beat his
Tory opponent by 200 votes, and was shown the door in the next
election when the Social Credit vote collapsed and Progressive
Conservative candidate Bert Hargrave won. The Tories held the seat
from that point on until 1993 when the Reform Party won the seat for
the first time. Reform became Canadian Alliance which merged with the
Progressive Conservatives in 2003 to form the Conservative Party and
the Conservatives have won this seat ever since.
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The 1993 election was the last to see the winning candidate receive
less than 60% of the vote, and was the last time the Liberals won
more than 20% of the vote. The riding usually votes overwhelmingly
for the main right wing candidate, and only sees somewhat competitive
elections when the right wing vote is split. In recent elections, the
true battle has been for second place. In 2015, the Liberals finished
second with 18% of the vote. In both 2008 and 2011 the second place
party was the NDP which won 11% and 13% respectively.
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<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Political
geography</b></h3>
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Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner is a very, very Conservative riding.
Except for the Blood 148 Indian Reserve, every single poll voted
Conservative in 2015. Even in the city of Medicine Hat. And outside
of the Blood 148 reserve, every single poll has voted Conservative in
every single election since the Conservative merger in 2013. And most
polls are won by quite large amounts.
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The rural areas of the riding are much more Conservative than
Medicine Hat itself. All of the rural counties in the riding gave
Hillyer at least 80% of the vote in 2015, and only three rural towns
did not give him at least 80% of the vote. Home to a large number of
Mennonites and Mormons, Cardston County, in the riding's far west was
the best municipality for Hillyer, where he won 89% of the vote. His
worst municipality was Medicine Hat, where he still won 64.5% of the
vote. However on the Blood Reserve, he won a minuscule 2.5% of the
vote. There, the NDP (despite finishing third in the overall vote)
won 62%, with the Liberals coming in second with 34%. Medicine Hat
was the best municipality for both the Liberals and the NDP who won
22% and 9.5% of the vote respectively.
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Within the city of Medicine Hat itself, Hillyer's best neighbourhood
was Saamis Heights, a newer suburb on the city's south side, where he
won 73% of the vote. Hillyer's worst neighbourhood was the Downtown,
where he won 47% of the vote. Downtown Medicine Hat was the best
neighbourhood for the NDP's candidate, who won 18% of the vote. The
best neighbourhood for the Liberal candidate was the Southeast Hill /
South Flats area, on the south side of downtown, where they won 31%
of the vote. </div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">2015 federal election results by community</td></tr>
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Overall, the best poll for the Conservatives was poll #170, which
covers the community of Leavitt, south of Cardston. Leavitt is a
Mormon village in Cardston County, which was founded by Thomas Rowell
Leaveitt, who had fled the United States after a crackdown on
polygamy laws. Hillyer won 94% of the vote there, with just ten
people voting for all of the other parties combined. On the other end
of the spectrum, there were three polls on the Blood Reserve where
Hillyer won a grand total of zero votes (polls #148, #149 and #150).
These polls cover the northeastern half of the reserve, and are close
to Lethbridge.</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dPq4o4BzdJA/WA5mwazCS1I/AAAAAAAADIo/nU90bGBOLB8mRLWbLJNctiHZN8ariE-dgCLcB/s1600/Leavitt%252C%2BAB%2B%2528Google%2Bstreetview%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="264" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dPq4o4BzdJA/WA5mwazCS1I/AAAAAAAADIo/nU90bGBOLB8mRLWbLJNctiHZN8ariE-dgCLcB/s640/Leavitt%252C%2BAB%2B%2528Google%2Bstreetview%2529.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Google Streetview photo of Leavitt, Alberta</td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-zyn_DFIY1jo/WA5m4iz1DFI/AAAAAAAADIs/T-t3oZBRYP8_yVspFOHDbN8Scrim2lTrwCLcB/s1600/Blood%2BReserve%252C%2BAB%2B%2528Google%2Bstreetview%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-zyn_DFIY1jo/WA5m4iz1DFI/AAAAAAAADIs/T-t3oZBRYP8_yVspFOHDbN8Scrim2lTrwCLcB/s640/Blood%2BReserve%252C%2BAB%2B%2528Google%2Bstreetview%2529.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Google Streetview photo of the Blood Reserve</td></tr>
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When it comes to federal elections, voters in the Medicine Hat area
are very inelastic. That is, they tend to not change their votes too
often, even when the rest of the country is. Despite the
Conservatives losing a lot of support across the country in 2011,
they actually gained a swing 0.1% in the riding. The Liberals did see
an uptick in support, receiving a swing of 6.8%, but this pails in
comparison to the 21% national swing they won. Overall, the two party
average swing to the Liberals was 3.3%. The Liberals saw the biggest
swings in their direction in Medicine Hat and in the Blood Reserve.
The Conservatives saw some reasonable swings in more rural areas, and
especially in Cypress County. </div>
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In the last provincial election, the election results were not as homogeneous as in past federal elections. The NDP orange crush was big
enough to not only win a few polls outside of the Blood reserve
(which they won by nearly 90% of the vote), but an entire riding:
Medicine Hat, which covers the northern and central parts of the
city. Within the Medicine Hat provincial riding, the NDP won the
central part of the city, while the Wildrose won the more suburban
parts, and the PCs won a few polls in the Norwood and Meadowlands
neighbourhoods. Outside of Medicine Hat and the Blood First Nation,
the NDP did not win any polls. Most of the rural polls voted for the
Wildrose Party, except for a few scattering polls that the Tories
won.
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Historically, the provincial riding of Cardston-Taber-Warner which
overlaps the western third of the Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner
riding has been very favourable to right wing third parties. In the
2004 provincial election, it was the only riding to vote for the
Alberta Alliance (which later became the Wildrose Party), which
helped give that party the credibility which led to its future
success.
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<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Outlook</b></h3>
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The next MP for Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner will likely be
Conservative candidate Glen Motz, who is a retired Medicine Hat
police officer. Motz is a social conservative, who became a police
officer after following “God's call”, and has a bachelor's degree
in religious education. His main opponent is Liberal candidate Stan
Sakamoto, a Medicine Hat businessman who is credited as being the
first Japanese-Canadian to be born there. Despite a Justin Trudeau
rally in Medicine Hat that attracted 2000 people, it would be a huge
surprise if Sakamoto could pull this off. Despite going NDP in the
provincial election, Medicine Hat is a fairly conservative city, and
the rural part of this riding is about as conservative as it gets.
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Let's not forget there are other candidates running as well. The NDP
is running Bev Waege, who was the party's candidate in
Cypress-Medicine Hat in the 2015 election, but was not swept up in
the orange wave, finishing third. The Greens are not running any
candidates, but look for the Christian Heritage Party candidate (and
leader) Rod Taylor to do well here- and by that I mean possibly
finish ahead of the NDP. The Libertarians are also running a
candidate, as is the Rhinoceros Party.
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While I predict the Conservatives will easily win this by-election, I
predict the Liberals will win a few polls in central Medicine Hat.
They will also likely win the Blood 148 Reserve back from the NDP, as
they did in the 2014 Macleod by-election (albeit with comically low
turnout). We'll see just how well they do when the polls close at
8:30 Mountain Time (10:30 Eastern).
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Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-63927471382796324742016-10-15T09:30:00.000-04:002016-10-15T09:35:34.744-04:00Nova Scotia municipal elections todayToday is election day across Nova Scotia's 51 municipalities, as voters go to the polls to elect new mayors, councils and members of the province's eight school boards.<br />
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Since the <a href="http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/10/nova-scotia-municipal-elections-2012.html">last election held in 2012</a>, the province has reduced the number of municipalities from 54 to 51. This is because on April 1 2015, three municipalities were annexed by their surrounding municipalities. Bridgetown was annexed by the County of Annapolis, Springhill was annexed by the County of Cumberland and Hantsport was annexed by the District of West Hants. The topic of amalgamations and annexations of municipalities in the province continues to be a heated debate as municipalities must wrestle between shrinking tax bases and providing adequate services. A flashpoint in this debate came earlier this year when voters in Pictou County rejected the idea of amalgamating the county's municipalities in a plebiscite by a 66%-34% margin.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pA50WJMjhTE/WAIwckiCnVI/AAAAAAAADHg/RxxGwPgd2HMHzymLKzC6lCjnBWB-lzU3QCLcB/s1600/NS%2Bmunicipalities%2Bmap.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="500" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pA50WJMjhTE/WAIwckiCnVI/AAAAAAAADHg/RxxGwPgd2HMHzymLKzC6lCjnBWB-lzU3QCLcB/s640/NS%2Bmunicipalities%2Bmap.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Map of Nova Scotia's 51 municipalities</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<h3>
Background </h3>
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Nova Scotia's municipalities can be divided into three types: Regional Municipalities, Towns and Municipal Districts/Counties. Nova Scotia hasn't had any incorporated cities since a series of amalgamations in the 1990s. There are three Regional Municipalities in the province, including the two largest municipalities, Halifax and Cape Breton. These are unlike the Regional Municipalities in Ontario, for example, in that there are are no lower levels of government in those areas. They are quite large in size, having been created out of the former counties that existed in their place. Each of the three regional municipalities are headed by a mayor, elected at-large and have a number of councillors elected from “districts” (usually called wards in other provinces).<br />
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The second form of municipalities are towns, which are very small in geographic size compared to the regional municipalities and the counties and municipal districts. There are 27 towns in Nova Scotia. Each are headed by mayors, elected at-large and have a number of councillors.<br />
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The final form of municipalities are the counties and municipal districts. The only difference between counties and municipal districts are that the municipal districts are generally smaller than the counties, having been created out of counties themselves. However, their form of government is much the same. There are nine county municipalities in Nova Scotia and 12 municipal districts. All but two of these jurisdictions are headed by wardens, while the remaining two (Lunenburg District and Colchester County) are headed by mayors, elected at large. In this election, Kings County will elect its mayor for the first time, ditching the old warden-council system. Municipalities with the warden-council system have the wardens elected from among the elected councillors by the councillors themselves. Each county and municipal district are divided into a number of districts from which their councillors are elected.<br />
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<h2>
Elections in major municipalities </h2>
<h3>
</h3>
<h3>
Halifax </h3>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-W_CSYUQVo58/WAIs0MAhSnI/AAAAAAAADGw/wYOciOAzK1MvBqPZTYszFSw1RSgqQQpfgCLcB/s1600/Halifax%2Bmayoral%2Bcandidates%2B%25282016%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-W_CSYUQVo58/WAIs0MAhSnI/AAAAAAAADGw/wYOciOAzK1MvBqPZTYszFSw1RSgqQQpfgCLcB/s1600/Halifax%2Bmayoral%2Bcandidates%2B%25282016%2529.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Mayoral candidates</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
In the Halifax Regional Municipalty (recently re-branded as just “Halifax”), Atlantic Canada's largest city, the result of today's mayoral election is a foregone conclusion. Mayor Mike Savage, the former Liberal MP for Dartmouth—Cole Harbour (2004-2011) has finished his first term as mayor of the city, and will likely enjoy being re-elected into a second term in the same fashion that most mayors are re-elected in Canada for their second terms, that is in a large landslide. He is only being challenged by one opponent, businesswoman Lil MacPherson who is challenging the centrist mayor from his left. She is the owner of a local organic restaurant. Only one poll of the race was conducted, back in the summer, showing Savage had a commanding 85%-15% lead over MacPherson.<br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GCbrWDGOhxM/WAItAzb6ndI/AAAAAAAADG0/AAvvlXIhRXIvbl94sUZn026vagLSAGnQgCLcB/s1600/halifax2012.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="324" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GCbrWDGOhxM/WAItAzb6ndI/AAAAAAAADG0/AAvvlXIhRXIvbl94sUZn026vagLSAGnQgCLcB/s640/halifax2012.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Savage won the 2012 race in a much more crowded field, but still by a decent margin, winning 58% of the vote, ahead of challengers Tom Martin (20%) and Fred Connors (18%). Three other candidates ran as well, each winning about 1% of the vote. Savage won all 16 districts in the city, doing the best in his native Dartmouth, while doing worse in the more rural parts of the city and in the inner-city. His strongest district was Harbourview-Burnside-Dartmouth East (District 6) where he won 69% of the vote, while his worst district was Spryfield-Sambro-Prospect Road (District 11) on the Chebucto Peninsula, where win won 45% of the vote. This was retired police officer Tom Martin's strongest district, where he won 27% of the vote. Activist and businessman Fred Connors' strongest district was Peninsula North (District 8) in the inner-city, where he won 27% of the vote. <br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-F7uL5grNwdA/WAItNohIUXI/AAAAAAAADG4/qxLk-L7b5eoMj3GzNTV0OuttfMXApC9dACLcB/s1600/hrmdistrictmap.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="238" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-F7uL5grNwdA/WAItNohIUXI/AAAAAAAADG4/qxLk-L7b5eoMj3GzNTV0OuttfMXApC9dACLcB/s640/hrmdistrictmap.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Map of Halifax's 16 council districts</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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On regional council, four of the city's 16 districts have open races, that is the incumbent in those seats have decided to retire instead of running for re-election. The four districts are District 1 (Waverley-Fall River-Musquodoboit Valley), District 5 (Dartmouth Centre), District 8 (Peninsula North) and District 12 (Timberlea-Beechville-Clayton Park West-Wedgewood). There will be no elections in District 3 (Dartmouth South-Eastern Passage), District 4 (Cole Harbour-Westphal), District 15 (Lower Sackville) and District 16 (Bedford-Wentworth) as the incumbents there have been acclaimed.<br />
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<br />
<h3>
Cape Breton </h3>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Zp5qosX1O78/WAItdiBtjdI/AAAAAAAADG8/eX8vzodiMaIMB1cWzopRKoVKLtKWb41PACLcB/s1600/CBRM%2Bcandidates%2B2016.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Zp5qosX1O78/WAItdiBtjdI/AAAAAAAADG8/eX8vzodiMaIMB1cWzopRKoVKLtKWb41PACLcB/s1600/CBRM%2Bcandidates%2B2016.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Mayoral candidates</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The mayoral race in the Cape Breton Regional Municipality will be a re-match of the 2012 election between Cecil Clarke and Rankin MacSween. Clarke served as the MLA for Cape Breton North from 2001 to 2011 for the Progressive Conservative Party before being elected mayor in 2012. MacSween is the head of a community economic development agency.<br />
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In 2012, Clarke defeated MacSween by a 59%-38% margin with three minor candidates winning the remaining 3%. I was lucky to be sent the results by district by the region's elections office, though the results by district may be a bit misleading, as over half of all voters voted in advance and did not have their votes recorded by district. Nonetheless, of those voting on election day, Clarke won all but one district in the region. He was especially strong in the Sydney Mines and North Sydney areas (Districts 1 and 2), which cover the provincial riding he represented. The one district he lost was District 11, which covers the New Waterford area. MacSween won the district by just 0.7% of the vote. The New Waterford area has historically been a very strong region for the NDP in provincial elections.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-r-q5yHX_XSo/WAIt_OnA9_I/AAAAAAAADHE/2szFIAOUFoEUWu43r_uxXs_VJAD30KD4gCLcB/s1600/Cape%2BBreton%2BRM%2Bdistrict%2Bmap%2B%25282016%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="503" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-r-q5yHX_XSo/WAIt_OnA9_I/AAAAAAAADHE/2szFIAOUFoEUWu43r_uxXs_VJAD30KD4gCLcB/s640/Cape%2BBreton%2BRM%2Bdistrict%2Bmap%2B%25282016%2529.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Cape Breton's 12 council districts</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Cape Breton has a 12 seat municipal council, which only saw a minor boundary change since the last election. Every seat in the region will see a contested race, and four districts will have open races, including District 10 where disgraced former Liberal MLA Dave Wilson is running.<br />
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<br />
<h3>
Kings County </h3>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ukWygFylMd0/WAIuLbjeO5I/AAAAAAAADHI/P2HkcF7P56UwrC8fwpsY9ziMniC9BGiqACLcB/s1600/Kings%2BCounty%2B%2528NS%2529%2B2016%2Bcandidates.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="176" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ukWygFylMd0/WAIuLbjeO5I/AAAAAAAADHI/P2HkcF7P56UwrC8fwpsY9ziMniC9BGiqACLcB/s320/Kings%2BCounty%2B%2528NS%2529%2B2016%2Bcandidates.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Main mayoral candidates</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The third largest municipality in Nova Scotia is actually Kings County, located on the Bay of Fundy in the Annapolis Valley. It includes the communities of Greenwood, Kingston and New Minas just to name a few. The county is seeing its first ever mayoral election, as it has switched from having a warden-council system to a mayor-council system. County warden Diana Brothers has opted to run for re-election in District 5 instead of running for mayor. Running for mayor of the county are four candidates: Rick Ackland, Dick Killam, Peter Muttart and Laurie Porter. Muttart is a county councillor representing the Port Williams area. Killam has also sat on council in the past, as has his wife. Rick Ackland is a retired lawyer who ran for a council seat in 2012, but had his candidacy disqualified. Porter does not appear to have an active campaign.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-f47RN0erRLo/WAIuTeZfaqI/AAAAAAAADHM/KH1XYSX2gGE9AcWlK9L9pFNXsdFLz6blgCLcB/s1600/Kings%2BCounty%2B%2528NS%2529%2Bdistrict%2Bmap%2B%25282016%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="335" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-f47RN0erRLo/WAIuTeZfaqI/AAAAAAAADHM/KH1XYSX2gGE9AcWlK9L9pFNXsdFLz6blgCLcB/s400/Kings%2BCounty%2B%2528NS%2529%2Bdistrict%2Bmap%2B%25282016%2529.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">King County's 9 council districts (new map for 2016)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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In addition to ditching the position of warden, the county has also reduced the number of council districts from 12 to nine, reducing the size of council from 13 members to ten. Due to a number of retirements on council however, no district is seeing more than one councillor run against each other.<br />
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<br />
<h3>
Colchester County </h3>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0F2ou_TAaRs/WAIuhqNjIDI/AAAAAAAADHQ/rVLXKQikhswY-UrAU-ZxFUM1A4UXRBl0wCLcB/s1600/Colchester%2BCounty%2B2016%2Bcandidates.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0F2ou_TAaRs/WAIuhqNjIDI/AAAAAAAADHQ/rVLXKQikhswY-UrAU-ZxFUM1A4UXRBl0wCLcB/s1600/Colchester%2BCounty%2B2016%2Bcandidates.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Mayoral candidates</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The province's fourth largest municipality is Colchester County, which is in the northern part of the province, stretching from the Bay of Fundy to Northumberland Strait and completely surrounding the Town of Truro. Among other communities, it includes the villages of Bible Hill and Tatamagouche.
Bob Taylor has been the county's mayor since 2008 and was re-elected by acclamation in 2012. Taylor is a Liberal, having run for that party in the 2006 provincial election in the riding of Colchester North. Unlike in 2012, Taylor is not running unopposed for the mayoralty this time. Councillor Christine Blair has entered the race against Taylor. She represents District 1 on council, which covers the Bible Hill and Brookside communities.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-HfiX9h0Vm9M/WAIuon3N8vI/AAAAAAAADHU/b-GeDgOrIoUzIzHLR9XZ5PE4unou5nqIQCLcB/s1600/Colchester%2BCounty%2Bdistrict%2Bmap.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="477" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-HfiX9h0Vm9M/WAIuon3N8vI/AAAAAAAADHU/b-GeDgOrIoUzIzHLR9XZ5PE4unou5nqIQCLcB/s640/Colchester%2BCounty%2Bdistrict%2Bmap.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Colchester County's 11 council districts</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Colchester County has 11 districts on council, most of which will not be seeing elections as their incumbents have been acclaimed, or in one case (District 1), a non-incumbent was the only candidate to offer. Elections will only occur in two districts: District 2 and District 11.<br />
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Those are the four biggest municipalities, but there are other races being held right across the province of course. Polls close at 7pm Atlantic time (6pm Eastern).
Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-31268887504894452742016-09-01T16:08:00.000-04:002016-09-01T16:08:32.397-04:00Scarborough--Rouge River by-election today
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-iNEHbNmlmtk/V8iH-Oass3I/AAAAAAAADFQ/RfprHlyBJTgKVmTVdfcdEfn3fp82bHR7ACLcB/s1600/scarborough-rouge%2Briver%2B2014.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-iNEHbNmlmtk/V8iH-Oass3I/AAAAAAAADFQ/RfprHlyBJTgKVmTVdfcdEfn3fp82bHR7ACLcB/s400/scarborough-rouge%2Briver%2B2014.png" width="331" /></a>Another provincial
by-election is being held this week, this time in Ontario, in the
suburban Toronto riding of Scarborough—Rouge River, to fill a
vacancy created last March when its provincial member of parliament,
Bas Balkissoon unexpectedly resigned for mysterious reasons.
Balkissoon, a member of the governing Liberal Party, had represented
the riding since a by-election in 2005. The riding has a long history
of voting for the Liberals; it has voted Liberal in every provincial
election since 1985. However, recent election races in the riding
have been fairly close, and the expectation is that this by-election
will be too.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
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</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Scarborough—Rouge
River is located in the northeast corner of Toronto, covering a
number of very diverse neighbourhoods like Malvern and Agincourt
North. It is named for the Rouge River, which runs through the east
end of the riding. East of the Rouge River is Rouge Park, which
covers about a quarter of the riding's area and surrounds the famous
Toronto Zoo. The urban area of the riding is divided into two
clusters, Malvern/Morningside Heights in the east and
Agincourt/Millken in the west. These urban areas are further divided
into sub-neighbourhoods.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
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</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-miRzI-R0Zps/V8iIDn5XFMI/AAAAAAAADFU/8tgeTd0NJ6MUf5LJfDRbSxagbK1P8vwagCLcB/s1600/Scarborough-Rouge%2BRiver%2Bneighbourhoods.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="500" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-miRzI-R0Zps/V8iIDn5XFMI/AAAAAAAADFU/8tgeTd0NJ6MUf5LJfDRbSxagbK1P8vwagCLcB/s640/Scarborough-Rouge%2BRiver%2Bneighbourhoods.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Map of Scarborough--Rouge River's neighbourhoods</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><b>Demographics </b></i>
</h3>
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</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Scarborough—Rouge
River is noteworthy for its huge immigrant population. A full
two-thirds of residents are immigrants, over half of which have
immigrated to Canada since 1981. China and Sri Lanka are the biggest
source of immigrants to the riding, but many immigrants have come
from the Philippines, India and Hong Kong too. Only 5% of the
residents are third or more generation Canadians.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
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</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
While the riding is
very diverse as whole, it is not just one big mixed bag; the two
urban clusters have attracted immigrants from different sources. The
western half of the riding (west of Markham Road) is heavily Chinese,
while the eastern half of the riding is more diverse, but is
dominated by a large South Asian population. All together, the riding
is 33% South Asian, 31% Chinese, 11% Black and only 8% White –
making it one of the least Caucasian ridings in the country. Another
8% of the riding is Filipino. English is still the mother tongue of a
plurality of residents (40%), while Chinese is the first language of
27% and Tamil of 12%. 39% of the riding is Christian, with about half
of that being Catholic. 21% of the riding is Hindu, the largest
concentration of Hindus in any riding in the province. 9% of the
riding is Muslim.
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pBcIvZ-FMLU/V8iIM-AGZ3I/AAAAAAAADFY/fiIQ-v0gbW43HTQklhG20N54wJucINIuwCLcB/s1600/scarborough-rouge%2Briver%2Brace%2Bmap.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pBcIvZ-FMLU/V8iIM-AGZ3I/AAAAAAAADFY/fiIQ-v0gbW43HTQklhG20N54wJucINIuwCLcB/s640/scarborough-rouge%2Briver%2Brace%2Bmap.png" width="596" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The riding is a bit
poorer than the province as a whole. The median household income in
the riding is $62,000 (provincial median is $66,000) while the median
individual income is $21,000 (provincial median is $31,000). The
largest industries are manufacturing, retail trade and health care
and social assistance.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><b>History</b></i></h3>
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<br />
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For most of its post-confederation history, this part of Scarborough
was mostly farmland, and Malvern was but a village with a post
office. From Confederation until 1955, all of Scarborough was located
in the provincial riding of York East. At that point all of
Scarborough became the riding of York—Scarborough until
Scarborough's post war population growth necessitated that the riding
be split up into small ridings in 1963. At that time, everything in
Scarborough east of Markham Road became the riding of Scarborough
East and everything west of Markham Road and north of Lawrence Avenue
became Scarborough North. Over the next few decades, the north end of
Scarborough began to grow, with development only finally slowing down
in the 2000s.
</div>
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<br />
</div>
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Beginning at the 1975 election, all of the north end of Scarborough
was united within a newly-shaped Scarborough North riding. Population
growth made the riding smaller over the course of its history until
the area became Scarborough—Rouge River in 1999 when provincial
riding boundaries were made to match their federal counterparts. This
means that in the next provincial election, most of the riding will
be transferred to the new riding of Scarborough North, while the
eastern half of Malvern will be moved to the new riding of
Scarborough—Rouge Park. (On a side note, the arbitrary division of
the Malvern community is quite unfortunate, considering that a better
boundary could have been Markham Road, would have made not only a
better “natural” border, but also marks the border of the two
major ethnic communities in Scarborough's north end.) </div>
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<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-UgbdcWnA5a4/V8iIiAg_0dI/AAAAAAAADFc/MvWhk1BJAgsHswT2-6TGbtgR_ZCcl_dzQCLcB/s1600/Scarborough-Rouge%2BRiver%2BMPP%2Blist.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-UgbdcWnA5a4/V8iIiAg_0dI/AAAAAAAADFc/MvWhk1BJAgsHswT2-6TGbtgR_ZCcl_dzQCLcB/s1600/Scarborough-Rouge%2BRiver%2BMPP%2Blist.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Scarborough--Rouge River MPP list</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<br /></div>
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Scarborough North and Scarborough—Rouge River have been
continuously represented by Liberals since 1985, with Alvin Curling
representing the area until Balkissoon's by-election win in 2005.
Before 1985, the area was a safe Tory seat, but the increasing number
of immigrants moving into the area helped the Liberals take it and
made it into a safe Liberal seat. The riding would remain a safe
Liberal seat until both the NDP and Progressive Conservatives began
making inroads into the minority communities. In 2011, NDP candidate
and school trustee Neethan Shan, an immigrant from Sri Lanka, gave
Balkissoon (himself an immigrant from Trinidad and Tobago) a run for
his money, losing by just over 2000 votes. The 2014 election would
become a three-way race with city councillor Raymond Cho (a Korean
immigrant) running for the Tories against Balkissoon and Shan, who
ran again. Fewer than 5,000 votes separated the first place
Balkissoon and the third place Cho. With the Liberals moving to the
left in their rhetoric in that election, it is possible many socially
conservative immigrants were turned off of by the Liberals as the
riding was only one of a few in the province that saw a swing from
the Liberals to the PCs.
</div>
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<br />
</div>
<h3>
</h3>
<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><b>Political
geography</b></i></h3>
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<br />
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Following the recent collapse of the Ontario Liberal Party's (and to
a lesser extent, the federal Liberal Party) support among all
immigrant groups in this riding, the Chinese western half and the
South Asian eastern half of the riding have begun voting differently.
Whether this has something to do with the party platforms or their
respective candidates remains to be seen. However, patterns have
emerged since 2011 showing that the Chinese population is
increasingly voting for Conservative candidates, while the South
Asian population has been increasingly voting NDP. The Liberals have
still been able to get enough votes from both communities, and from
the other minority groups in the riding (such as Filipinos and
Caribbean Blacks) to still win the seat. In 2014, the only
neighbourhood in the riding to vote PC (Port Royal) also happens to
be the most Chinese neighbourhood in the riding, with 76% of the
population there being of Chinese ancestry. Meanwhile, the
neighbourhoods that voted NDP (Brookside, Dean Park, Morningside
Heights) have the highest South Asian populations in the riding. The
rest of the riding voted Liberal in 2014, to varying degrees, and is
home to a more diverse population than the aforementioned
neighbourhoods.</div>
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<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DFHJLZS4RtE/V8iJ20oesHI/AAAAAAAADFs/lKXwrjZRz3UpQ37yn28BfjeM1BYwpSmZgCLcB/s1600/scarborough-rouge%2Briver%2Bpartisan%2Bvoting%2Bindex.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="490" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DFHJLZS4RtE/V8iJ20oesHI/AAAAAAAADFs/lKXwrjZRz3UpQ37yn28BfjeM1BYwpSmZgCLcB/s640/scarborough-rouge%2Briver%2Bpartisan%2Bvoting%2Bindex.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Partisan index map by neighbourhood</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Just like in my Halifax Needham post from Tuesday, I also did a partisan voting index map for Scarborough--Rouge River. In each neighbourhood, I calculated the average difference in support between each of the three parties in the last two elections from the provincial average. This is slightly different than the calculations I did last time, as I had compared the Liberals to the NDP only (with the index showing the difference from an even two-way race), but this time I used three parties, so I couldn't do that, but it amounts to pretty much the same thing. Anyways, the map shows the NDP has done much better across the riding (especially in the east) compared to their province-wide numbers, while the Liberals are about even, while the Tories tend to under-perform throughout the riding. </div>
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<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
These ethnic voting patterns have been evident in recent federal
elections as well. In the 2011 federal election, the western half of
the riding went Conservative, while the eastern half overwhelmingly
backed the NDP's Rathika Sitsabaiesan, a Sri Lankan Tamil, who ended
up winning the seat with 41% of the vote. With the riding's South
Asian community split into two ridings in 2015, Sitsabaiesan was
forced to run in the more Chinese-dominated Scarborough North seat,
where she finished in a distant third behind the Liberal's Shaun Chen
and the Conservative's Ravinder Malhi. The rest of the riding became
part of the new riding Scarborough—Rouge Park which the Liberals
easily won with their candidate, another Sri Lankan Tamil, Gary
Anandasangaree. Did the 2015 election show that immigrants had come
back to the Liberal fold? Perhaps, but only time will tell. What is
clear is that South Asians appear more receptive to the Liberal Party
than Chinese Canadians who are more divided in their voting
allegiances. </div>
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<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zV6vDbxNoaU/V8iKM_cMrDI/AAAAAAAADFw/a8kIsGJG7rINoqLXjC80HUWJ4yLjVPvVgCLcB/s1600/scarborough-rouge%2Briver%2Bresults%2Bby%2Barea%2B%25282011%2Band%2B2014%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zV6vDbxNoaU/V8iKM_cMrDI/AAAAAAAADFw/a8kIsGJG7rINoqLXjC80HUWJ4yLjVPvVgCLcB/s1600/scarborough-rouge%2Briver%2Bresults%2Bby%2Barea%2B%25282011%2Band%2B2014%2529.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Results by neighbourhood in the 2011 and 2014 provincial elections</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<br /></div>
<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><b>Outlook</b></i></h3>
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<br />
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While the federal Liberals remain hugely popular in Ontario, their
provincial counterparts are polling very poorly, and are well behind
the leading Tories. The Liberals have now been in power for 13 years,
and have endured scandal after scandal after scandal. While poor
inter-election poll results is nothing new for the Liberals, they are
especially at a low point – the most recent Forum Research poll
from August indicating they are now 13 points behind the Tories. And
one issue that is hurting them, especially with socially conservative
immigrant voters is the liberalization of the province's sex ed
curriculum. Popular among progressives in the province, it has been
more religious, especially immigrant voters who have been the most
opposed to it. One would think that this would help the Tories,
considering their new leader, Patrick Brown was elected with the
backing socially conservative immigrant groups. Earlier in the year
he vowed to overturn the new curriculum if elected as Premier, but he
has since backpedalled and has now indicated that he won't be
overturning the law, a move that will not help him win a riding that
is overwhelmingly immigrant.
</div>
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</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Two polls released on the eve of the election from Mainstreet
Research and Forum Research have shown that we are indeed headed for
a close race. Mainstreet's poll shows the Tories have a 5 point lead
over the Liberals, while Forum's poll shows a tie between the two
parties. Perhaps unexpectedly, both polls show the NDP well behind in
third place, despite the party finishing second in both of the last
provincial candidates. One thing to keep in mind is that it is
incredibly difficult to poll ridings with a large immigrant
population. I saw this constantly in my polling work at EKOS in the
last election, and Scarborough North (the new federal riding
overlapping Scarborough—Rouge River) was no exception.
Impressively, Mainstreet's poll was conducted in Cantonese, Mandarin
and Tamil (in addition to English), and was even weighted by ethnic
group. The details of the Forum poll were not published, but I
personally doubt they went to the extent Mainstreet did. As a
pollster, I am particularly curious to see how well Mainstreet's poll
does, considering the methodology they used. Will the data be more
accurate, or was it all an exercise in futility in an
impossible-to-poll riding?
</div>
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</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Two
names on the ballot will be the same as in the 2014 election. City
councillor Raymond Cho will once again be the PC candidate. Cho
actually represents the eastern half of the riding on city council,
and has been involved in municipal politics since 1991. Cho was once
a New Democrat, having run for the NDP in the 1988 federal election.
Cho later </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">became
a Liberal, and ran as an “Independent Liberal” in the 2004
federal election, which upset the party. He then joined the
Progressive Conservatives and ran in 2014. The NDP candidate is once
again Neethan Shan, who was recently elected to represent the riding
as a school trustee for the Toronto District School Board. This will
be his third attempt to win the seat, after having come second in
2011 and 2014. This election will be Shan's 10</span></span><sup><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">th</span></span></sup><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">
electoral contest of his life. He was first elected as a school
trustee in Markham in 2006 after losing in his first attempt in 2003.
He then ran for the NDP in Scarborough—Guildwood in 2007, then for
Toronto city council in 2010 and 2014, losing both times to Cho. Fast
forward to last January when Shan was elected as a trustee in a</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">n
unnecessary, low turnout</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">
by-election </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">(as
all school board elections are!)</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">.
One thing that might be hurting his poll numbers is </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">that
</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">he
may be seen as an opportunist- and who wants to vote in another
</span></span><i><span style="font-weight: normal;">school board
by-election </span></i><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">if
he wins? As for the Liberals, their candidate is Piragal Thiru who
is described as a “Liberal activist”, and is a refugee from Sri
Lanka. He won the Liberal nomination by defeating the riding's former
MP, </span></span><strong><span style="font-weight: normal;">Rathika
Sitsabaiesan</span></strong> who had switched parties from the NDP.
With two Sri Lankans in the race, it is entirely possible their vote
will be split enough to allow the Tories to win the seat, which I
believe is the most likely scenario (but, hey- I was wrong about
Tuesday's race in Halifax!).</div>
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<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
There are five other
candidates in the race. The Greens, who never do very well here, are
running administrator Priyan De Silva. There are also Freedom and
Libertarian Party candidates, a “None of the Above” candidate who
is running as “Above Znoneofthe” (presumably to ensure they are
last on the ballot) and an independent candidate, Queenie Yu, who
running almost exclusively to repeal the changes made to the Sex Ed
curriculum.
</div>
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<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
We'll see if I'm
right about the Tories picking this seat up when polls close at
9:00pm.
</div>
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<br />
</div>
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</div>
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</div>
Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-57122098787384092992016-08-30T15:30:00.001-04:002016-08-30T16:30:18.518-04:00Halifax Needham provincial by-election today<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vzP-6XyCx_0/V8XcYcXzBeI/AAAAAAAADEo/vSCuNxVEq_0N8E94lZUkf4_jStXm79XDwCLcB/s1600/Halifax%2BNeedham%2B2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="173" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vzP-6XyCx_0/V8XcYcXzBeI/AAAAAAAADEo/vSCuNxVEq_0N8E94lZUkf4_jStXm79XDwCLcB/s400/Halifax%2BNeedham%2B2013.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
As summer comes to a close, the Fall election season in Canada begins
today, with a provincial by-election in Nova Scotia. Voters in the
north-end Halifax riding of Halifax Needham are heading to the polls
to elect a new member of the provincial legislature, to replace
longtime NDP MLA Maureen MacDonald who resigned last Spring due to
health issues. She had represented the riding since the 1998
election, when the NDP tied the Liberals for most seats, but had to
settle for the opposition. She was re-elected in every subsequent
election, even in 2013, when the party was decimated at the polls
after an unpopular term in government.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xYveuYViQzU/V8XeCwwHjWI/AAAAAAAADE8/f65NwblzY104ZYtGPXOwjsi_vdqA0T6qQCLcB/s1600/Halifax%2BNeedham-neighbourhoods.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="428" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xYveuYViQzU/V8XeCwwHjWI/AAAAAAAADE8/f65NwblzY104ZYtGPXOwjsi_vdqA0T6qQCLcB/s640/Halifax%2BNeedham-neighbourhoods.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Neighbourhood map</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
Halifax Needham covers most of what is known as the “North End”
of the Halifax Peninsula, as well as part of the West End. In the
south, the riding begins at Citadel Hill on the north edge of the
city's downtown, and from there, covers all of the northeast part of
the peninsula. Its western border is Connaught Avenue and Bayers Road
in the northwest and Robie Street in the southwest. The riding
contains the site of Africville, an historically Black neighbourhood
whose inhabitants were cruelly evicted by the city in the 1960s. The
riding also includes CFB Halifax and the Halifax Shipyard and was the
site of the famous Halifax Explosion in 1917. The riding is named
for Fort Needham, a park which contains memorial bells recovered from
a church destroyed in the explosion.
</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hr1D6xWImqE/V8XdRmr26JI/AAAAAAAADEw/kRgidSjBp0ItwHbWbvULgC3Qv_MzYTXfwCLcB/s1600/Halifax%2BNeedham-income.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="431" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hr1D6xWImqE/V8XdRmr26JI/AAAAAAAADEw/kRgidSjBp0ItwHbWbvULgC3Qv_MzYTXfwCLcB/s640/Halifax%2BNeedham-income.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Average income in Halifax Needham (2010)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<br /></div>
<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<i><b>History</b></i></h3>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
The north end of Halifax is historically the more working class part
of the city, and is home to a large student population. This has made
the riding one of the strongest NDP ridings in the province, and is
likely why the party won the seat in 2013, one of only two seats the
New Democrats won in the Halifax Metro area.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
Despite the riding's working class history, the NDP only became
competitive in the 1980s. Prior to MacDonald's win in 1998, the
riding swung between the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives.
After losing in the 1984 and 1988 elections, MacDonald finally
defeated Liberal MLA Gerry O'Malley in the 1998 election, by a large
margin. She handily won the next 5 elections, cementing the riding as
one of the safest NDP seats in the province. However, the 2013
election was much closer, with MacDonald defeating her Liberal
opponent by under 300 votes. </div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/--fYo9s9tkc0/V8XdF2Y98ZI/AAAAAAAADEs/qINAgd4IPOMPoJH7OUWu_Y8m0tw4HmlJgCLcB/s1600/Halifax-Needham%2BMLA%2Blist.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/--fYo9s9tkc0/V8XdF2Y98ZI/AAAAAAAADEs/qINAgd4IPOMPoJH7OUWu_Y8m0tw4HmlJgCLcB/s1600/Halifax-Needham%2BMLA%2Blist.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">List of MLAs since 1933</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<br /></div>
<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<i><b>Political geography </b></i>
</h3>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
When it comes to the riding's political geography, income is a pretty
good indicator of how the area will vote. The northern part of the
riding (Convoy Place) was the strongest neighbourhood for the
Liberals in the 2013 provincial election, and is also the wealthiest
neighbourhood in the riding. The southern part of the riding (North
End) is least affluent neighbourhood in the riding and was the
strongest NDP neighbourhood in 2013. This division was apparent in
the 2015 federal election as well; the southern neighbourhoods of the
riding voted NDP while the northern neighbourhoods voted Liberal. </div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nzTF9091vmo/V8Xd28QhGWI/AAAAAAAADE4/O9_YkD8CebYqlGFLagXyMeTkajfvVZoRgCLcB/s1600/Halifax%2BNeedham%2Bvote%2Bby%2Barea%2B%25282009%2Band%2B2013%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nzTF9091vmo/V8Xd28QhGWI/AAAAAAAADE4/O9_YkD8CebYqlGFLagXyMeTkajfvVZoRgCLcB/s1600/Halifax%2BNeedham%2Bvote%2Bby%2Barea%2B%25282009%2Band%2B2013%2529.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Results by neighbourhood in 2009 and 2013</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
Something new that I have done for this by-election analysis (and
something I hope to continue) is to calculate the partisan voting
index (based on the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_partisan_voting_index">Cook Partisan Voting Index</a>
used in the US) for each neighbourhood in the riding. This
calculation compares how each neighbourhood voted to the province as
a whole, using the average vote share in the last two elections. For
Halifax Needham, I compared the Liberals and the NDP as those two
parties were the strongest in both of the last two elections in the
riding. The index calculation shows that every neighbourhood in the
riding is more NDP-friendly than the province as a whole, compared to
the Liberals. According to the index, the North End is the NDP's best
neighbourhood (with an index score of +19), while the West End (which
was in a different riding in the 2009 election) is the Liberal's best
neighbourhood (NDP +7).<br />
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-eeHcJvTqPWQ/V8Xdl8Gzc7I/AAAAAAAADE0/RjFMj_y4prwiBCj_EfGEky8eM1-p3YdSgCLcB/s1600/Halifax%2BNeedham%2Bpartisan%2Bindex.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="430" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-eeHcJvTqPWQ/V8Xdl8Gzc7I/AAAAAAAADE0/RjFMj_y4prwiBCj_EfGEky8eM1-p3YdSgCLcB/s640/Halifax%2BNeedham%2Bpartisan%2Bindex.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">NEW! Partisan Voting Index by neighbourhood</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<br />
</h3>
<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<i><b>Outlook </b></i></h3>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
Since winning the 2013 provincial election, the governing Liberals
have enjoyed a considerable amount of popularity in public opinion
polls, while both the NDP and the Tories are well behind. Most polls
over the course of the year have had the Liberals hovering at around
60% of the vote, about 40 points ahead of the other two parties. The
massive Liberal lead in the polls is fuelling speculation that
Premier Stephen McNeil might call an early provincial election, even
as early as this Fall, though such a move has often been disastrous
in Canadian politics.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
The lone electoral test the Liberals have had since the last general
election was a <a href="http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/07/three-nova-scotia-provincial-by.html">series of by-elections held last summer</a>,
which paradoxically saw the Grits pick up two seats previously held
by the NDP, while the NDP won a seat which was held by the Liberals.
The two seats the NDP lost were in the industrial heartland of Cape
Breton, while the NDP's win came in more suburban Dartmouth,
signalling a potential demographic shift in support for the party.
The NDP had been leaderless at the time (Maureen MacDonald served as
interim leader), but have since elected a new leader in Gary Burrill,
known as being a strong leftist. The move is a departure from the
centrist policies of former leader and Premier Darrell Dexter, which
many have criticized as having hurt the party while in government.</div>
<br />
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
The only two parties that have a chance to win today's by-election is
the Liberals and the NDP. The Tories have not been competitive here
since they last won the seat in 1984, though they have subsequently
finished in second in both 1999 and 2006. Federally, the Tories have
not placed second in Halifax since 1997.
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
The Liberal candidate in the riding is Rod Wilson, a family doctor
and executive director of the North End Community Health Centre.
Hoping to keep the riding orange is Lisa Roberts, a former CBC
journalist originally from Newfoundland. The PC candidate is
businessman Andy Arsenault, while the Greens (who nearly
de-registered as a party this summer) are running computer scientist
Thomas Trappenberg, who was also the federal candidate in Halifax.
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
If the polls are to be believed, the Liberals should be able to win
this seat, which they had only lost by a few hundred votes in 2013,
as they are polling much better than in 2013, when they narrowly lost
this seat. However, if the recent Dartmouth South by-election is any
indication, the NDP could still hold on to this Metro seat, as it
suggested that the NDP may still be strong in the region. In the
federal election, the Liberals narrowly defeated the NDP in Halifax
Needham (by about 300 votes) despite getting 62% of the vote
province-wide, not too far off where the provincial Liberals are at
in the polls right now. So my prediction is a narrow Liberal win (the Liberals could be helped by the fact that it's a summer by-election, and that means the high student population in the riding might not show up), but
an NDP victory would not be a surprise. What would be a surprise to
me would be either party winning by more than 1000 votes.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
A loss for the NDP in one of its safest seats would be a minor
disaster for the party, which has seen its caucus shrink from seven
seats down to five since the last election. With a provincial general
election around the corner, it will make it harder for the party to
win more seats if it is only defending five of them. It is far more
important for the NDP to win this seat than the Liberals, though it
would still be a pretty big boost for the Grits if they win it. Polls
close at 8pm Atlantic Time (7pm Eastern).
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0.1cm; margin-top: 0.1cm;">
<br />
<br /></div>
Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-59844556254479174932016-05-09T12:09:00.000-04:002016-05-09T12:48:36.868-04:00New Brunswick municipal elections today<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/--EjuWFTlctc/VzC0nE3gXlI/AAAAAAAADBY/AzfpC3V-djMcfkE_lL0Ckns3GfBxWFyawCLcB/s1600/NB%2Bmunicipality%2Band%2Bward%2Bmap.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="314" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/--EjuWFTlctc/VzC0nE3gXlI/AAAAAAAADBY/AzfpC3V-djMcfkE_lL0Ckns3GfBxWFyawCLcB/s320/NB%2Bmunicipality%2Band%2Bward%2Bmap.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Map of New Brunswick's municipalities and wards</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Voters in New Brunswick are heading to the polls today in municipal elections. Not only will voters be electing new mayors and councils across the province's 107 municipalities, they will also be voting for district education councils and regional health authorities. One municipality, Oromocto will also be holding a plebiscite to see if voters want bi-weekly recycle collection.<br />
<br />
Since the last municipal <a href="http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/05/new-brunswick-municipal-elections-2012.htm">elections in 2012</a> the province gained two new municipalities: the rural communities of Cocagne and Hanwell, bringing the total number of municipalities in the province up from 105 to 107. Furthermore, the Town of Tracadie-Sheila amalgamated with surrounding local service districts to become the new regional municipality of Tracadie. <br />
<br />
Voters in the municipalities of Alma, Baker-Brook, Bath, Bertrand, Cambridge Narrows, Campobello Island, Clair, Hartland, Maisonnette, Meductic, Millville, Sainte-Anne-de-Madawaska, Saint-Isidore, Saint-Louis-de-Kent, Saint-Quentin, Shippagan and Stanley will not be voting in council or mayoral elections, as all candidates running were acclaimed, that is they were elected to their positions without opposition. <br />
<br />
The municipalities of Aroostook, Balmoral, Beresford, Blacks Harbour, Bouctouche, Canterbury, Cap-Pelé, Caraquet, Dorchester, Florenceville-Bristol, Gagetown, Hampton, Harvey, Hillsborough, New Maryaland, Nigadoo, Norton, Petitcodiac, Petit-Rocher, Pointe-Verte, Port Elgin, Richibucto, Sainte-Marie-Saint-Raphaël, Saint-Léonard, Shediac, St. Hilaire, Sussex, Sussex Corner, Tide Head, Tracy and Woodstock will not be holding mayoral elections, as candidates for that position were also acclaimed.<br />
<br />
And, there will only be races for mayor in Charlo, Drummond, Saint Andrews, St. Martins and Upper Miramichi as the rest of council was acclaimed. <br />
<br />
Let's take a look at the races in New Brunswick's three largest cities:<br />
<br />
<br />
<h3>
Fredericton</h3>
<h3>
</h3>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bzYAmoJE8ag/VzC0zYlV7uI/AAAAAAAADBc/i7L4M8eBVSkoaSe7GqzQvCdxSkbO_ZwtgCLcB/s1600/Fredericton%2B2012.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="340" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bzYAmoJE8ag/VzC0zYlV7uI/AAAAAAAADBc/i7L4M8eBVSkoaSe7GqzQvCdxSkbO_ZwtgCLcB/s400/Fredericton%2B2012.png" width="400" /></a></div>
The race for mayor of Fredericton is between long-time mayor Brad Woodside and Ward 3 councillor Michael O'Brien. <br />
<br />
Woodside has been involved in Fredericton politics for a long time. He was first elected as mayor in 1986, but was first elected to council in 1981. He resigned as mayor in 1999, but was re-elected in 2004 and has served as mayor ever since. He resigned in 1999 to run for the Liberals in the provincial election that year in the riding of Fredericton North, losing to the Progressive Conservatives in a close race. <br />
<br />
Woodside won re-election in 2012, defeating left-leaning professor Matthew Hayes 63% to 37%. Woodside won 10 of the city's 12 wards, while Hayes won the two downtown wards, an area that is now held by the Green Party in the provincial legislature. Woodside saw his strongest support on the more suburban north side of the Saint John River. <br />
<br />
This election is expected to be much closer than in 2012, as Woodside's opponent is more credible in city councillor Michael O'Brien, who has been a councillor since 2001. O'Brien was previously an engineer and worked for NB Liquor for 30 years. He is known for promoting affordable housing and social causes.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-iw9vQdSOIeA/VzC0-JHL3GI/AAAAAAAADBg/N5jICwG2VwMlIPwSylHot3XkX9L94935gCLcB/s1600/fredericton%2B2016%2Bcandidates.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="153" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-iw9vQdSOIeA/VzC0-JHL3GI/AAAAAAAADBg/N5jICwG2VwMlIPwSylHot3XkX9L94935gCLcB/s200/fredericton%2B2016%2Bcandidates.png" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Candidates for mayor</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Fredericton's 12 wards saw a re-drawing of their boundaries, and so this year's council election will be fought on a new electoral map. Each ward elects one member to city council, which means there are 13 council members including the mayor. Wards 1, 4 and 5 will not have elections as the candidates in those wards were elected with no opposition. In Ward 4, a non incumbent was acclaimed, Eric Price, as its current councillor, Eric Megarity decided to run in Ward 6 instead, against sitting councillor Marilyn Kerton. New ward boundaries have meant one other sitting councillor has had to run in a different seat. In addition to Megarity's move, Ward 2 councillor Bruce Grandy is running in Ward 3, leaving that ward as an open seat. There will be two other open races as Ward 7 councillor Scott McConaghy and Ward 12 councillor Randy Dickinson are not running for re-election.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-yQwUtOcbg2c/VzC1GDia-FI/AAAAAAAADBk/XNSu-Pa9wXYnB_1UDQUe-ZhqP0Mw_WQ8gCLcB/s1600/fredericton%2Bward%2Bmap%2B%25282016%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="302" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-yQwUtOcbg2c/VzC1GDia-FI/AAAAAAAADBk/XNSu-Pa9wXYnB_1UDQUe-ZhqP0Mw_WQ8gCLcB/s320/fredericton%2Bward%2Bmap%2B%25282016%2529.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Fredericton's new ward map</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
<h3>
Moncton</h3>
<h3>
</h3>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6EiUwbbl6Zo/VzC1QkFFtUI/AAAAAAAADBo/dklyH1nKg8wrLwoCTwwLFowcOnm5ZWtJwCLcB/s1600/Moncton%2B2012.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="378" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6EiUwbbl6Zo/VzC1QkFFtUI/AAAAAAAADBo/dklyH1nKg8wrLwoCTwwLFowcOnm5ZWtJwCLcB/s400/Moncton%2B2012.png" width="400" /></a></div>
Two-term incumbent mayor George LeBlanc will not be running for re-election, leaving the mayoral race in the Hub City wide open. LeBlanc's decision to not run has come after a failed bid to win the federal Liberal Party nomination in Moncton's riding in last year's federal election. LeBlanc easily won re-election as mayor of the city in 2012, defeating former NDP candidate Carl Bainrbidge 87% to 13%. LeBlanc won all four wards in the city by over 85% of the vote. <br />
<br />
The race to replace LeBlanc is between two sitting city councillors, at large city councillor Dawn Arnold and Ward 3 city councillor Brian Hicks. Hicks is a Liberal, having run in the 2014 provincial election in Moncton Northwest, losing to the PCs in a close race. He has served on city council since 1999, and was previously a businessman, having managed two inter-provincial trucking companies. Arnold was first elected to city council in the 2012 election, managing to top the poll in the race for at-large city councillor. Previously, she was the chair of the local “Frye Festival”, a local bilingual literary festival.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CEfwAD90UPQ/VzC1WR2lBtI/AAAAAAAADBw/CBGz1r_mRns0OGx9NeU2bCUqMX6gL7yvwCLcB/s1600/Moncton%2B2016%2Bcandidates.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CEfwAD90UPQ/VzC1WR2lBtI/AAAAAAAADBw/CBGz1r_mRns0OGx9NeU2bCUqMX6gL7yvwCLcB/s1600/Moncton%2B2016%2Bcandidates.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Candidates for mayor</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
In addition to the mayoral race, there are 10 seats up for grabs on Moncton's city council. Each of Moncton's four wards will elect two city councillors while the remaining two city councillors are elected city-wide on an at-large basis. With Arnold running for mayor, there will only be one incumbent (Pierre Boudreau) running for re-election as Moncton's at-large councillor. In addition to Boudreau, there are seven candidates running for the two at-large positions. With Brian Hicks running for mayor, and Ward 3's other councillor, Daniel Bourgeois not running for re-election, there will be an open race for that ward's two council seats. The incumbents in the remaining three wards in the city are all running for re-election. <br />
<br />
<br />
<h3>
Saint John</h3>
<h3>
</h3>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Pz4M44aJVkI/VzC1uauuahI/AAAAAAAADB4/dUZZ2OT8yQ8Wekcd1EqHmt1e9OA3iDkZwCLcB/s1600/Saint%2BJohn%2B2012.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="265" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Pz4M44aJVkI/VzC1uauuahI/AAAAAAAADB4/dUZZ2OT8yQ8Wekcd1EqHmt1e9OA3iDkZwCLcB/s400/Saint%2BJohn%2B2012.png" width="400" /></a></div>
Saint John will also see an open race for mayor, as the city's current head, Mel Norton is retiring and will be running for leader of the province's Progressive Conservative Party. Norton had only been mayor of the city for one term, being first elected in the 2012 election, when he defeated the previous mayor, Ivan Court in a landslide, 76% to 15%. Norton easily won all four wards in the city, three of which with over three quarters of the vote. The only ward he did not break 75% was Ward 3, which covers the central part of the city, despite this being the ward he had previously represented on city council. <br />
<br />
With Norton not running for re-election, five candidates have stepped up to replace him, Deputy Mayor Shelley Rinehart, councillor Bill Faren, former city councillor Patty Higgins, businessman Don Darling and fringe candidate Howard Yeomans.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-45igvQ1hVxk/VzC11hbtEZI/AAAAAAAADCA/yjbr1e1SgpE00l3bpnf4SiiVpAN-CtKdwCLcB/s1600/Saint%2BJohn%2B2016%2Bcandidates.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="160" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-45igvQ1hVxk/VzC11hbtEZI/AAAAAAAADCA/yjbr1e1SgpE00l3bpnf4SiiVpAN-CtKdwCLcB/s320/Saint%2BJohn%2B2016%2Bcandidates.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The three main candidates for mayor</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Rinehart was first elected to Saint John's city council in 2012, topping the polls for one of two at-large positions, becoming deputy mayor in the process. Prior to her election, she served as a business professor. She ran for the provincial Liberals in the 2014 Saint John East by-election, going down to defeat against the Progressive Conservative candidate, despite the Liberals having just won the seat two months earlier in the provincial election. Farren is one of the two city councillors representing Ward 1, and was first elected to council in 2004. Farren ran for the NDP in the 1999 provincial election in the riding of Saint John Lancaster, finishing third. Higgins sat on Saint John's council from 2008 to 2012, when she lost her Ward 2 seat by a narrow margin. While sitting as a city councillor, Higgins ran for the Green Party in the 2010 provincial election in the riding of Saint John Harbour, coming in last place. Darling is a local consultant and owns a small construction business, while Yeomans is a retiree who considers himself an “average citizen”.<br />
<br />
Saint John's city council is elected the same way as Moncton's. There are four wards, which elect two councillors each, plus two councillors are elected at-large. The at-large councillor with the most votes becomes deputy mayor.<br />
<br />
With Rinehart running for mayor, only one incumbent is running for re-election in the at-large race, Shirley McAlary. She is running against five other candidates for the two positions. Both incumbents from Wards 3 and 4 will be running for re-election as well. Meanwhile in Wards 1 and 2, only one incumbent is running for re-election. In Ward 1 only Greg Norton is running for re-election, as its other councillor, Bill Faren is running for mayor. In Ward 2 only John MacKenzie is running for re-election as Susan Fullerton is retiring. <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Polls close at 8pm, Atlantic time or 7pm Eastern. Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-89186022479278792892016-04-19T12:44:00.000-04:002016-04-19T12:44:35.346-04:00Manitoba election prediction: PC landslide <table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SpHowfAe508/VxZencgq-vI/AAAAAAAAC_I/PItOfnxp6sEzBiJlq9CjC7sBBWQXE9H-gCLcB/s1600/manitoba%2B2016%2Bprediction.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SpHowfAe508/VxZencgq-vI/AAAAAAAAC_I/PItOfnxp6sEzBiJlq9CjC7sBBWQXE9H-gCLcB/s400/manitoba%2B2016%2Bprediction.png" width="323" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Seat prediction map</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Manitobans are
heading to the polls today in what will be an historic provincial
election. If all the polls are correct, then voters are set to elect
a Progressive Conservative government in a landslide election,
kicking out the governing NDP, which has run the province since 1999,
winning four straight majority governments in the process.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Polls are suggesting
the PCs are hovering around 50% in the popular vote, which would be
their highest vote share since 1910. If they get a few points higher
than that, it would be their highest vote share in the province's
history. This means that the Tories will be winning seats they have
never won before, some of them quite easily, like Brandon East,
Interlake and Selkirk. The NDP meanwhile is polling in the mid-20s,
which would be their worst result since 1988. The Liberals on the
other hand are just looking to gain back relevancy. After winning
just one seat and 8% of the vote in 2011, they are now polling in the
mid-teens, and could see their best result since 1995. The Greens are
also polling well, averaging at 8%, which would be their best result
ever.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
This has been an
election of awful leaders. NDP Premier Greg Selinger is coming off of
<a href="http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/03/re-cap-of-manitoba-ndp-leadership.html">last year's controversial leadership election</a>, which followed a caucus revolt.
Selinger won the election by a narrow result, thanks in part to the
backing of major unions in the province. Not only that, Selinger is
carrying 17 years of governing baggage behind him. The man who will
become Premier, PC leader Brian Pallister is carrying baggage of his
own. Many see him as being too right wing for the province, and is
currently embroiled in a scandal in where it was discovered he had
been to Costa Rica 15 times since 2012, and had lied about his
travels. As for Liberal leader Rana Bokhari, she has run a lacklustre
campaign which included an awful debate performance. At the beginning
of the campaign, the Liberals had been polling ahead of the NDP for
second place, but have now fallen considerably behind. The only
leader that seems to be popular is Green Party head, James Beddome,
who will definitely benefit from a high protest vote this election.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_ojKp_vnD10/VxZeRgSW_eI/AAAAAAAAC_E/_RPq94RfWi02Q3mSl1IhRRenrFHkJZhXgCLcB/s1600/Manitoba%2B2016%2Bprediction%2Bcard.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_ojKp_vnD10/VxZeRgSW_eI/AAAAAAAAC_E/_RPq94RfWi02Q3mSl1IhRRenrFHkJZhXgCLcB/s1600/Manitoba%2B2016%2Bprediction%2Bcard.png" /></a><b> </b></div>
<h3 class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<b><br /></b></h3>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<h3>
<b>Predictions</b><br /><br /></h3>
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
For my riding
predictions, I have come up with a “rating” for each riding
(safe, likely, lean or toss up), which rates how comfortable I am in
my predictions for each seat. I've made these ratings by using recent
regional poll numbers and comparing them to the last provincial
election as well as an average result of the last provincial and
federal elections (see maps below). In taking a look at both elections, I feel I have
a way to identify any abnormal riding results, and account for this
in my predictions. Where my numbers contradict each other in a
riding, or where they show a close race, I've declared the seat a
“toss up” and offered my gut prediction in that riding, based on
its history and its candidates. I've also taken into consideration a
couple of riding polls that have come out over the course of the
campaign.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41FVJ8PpA6U/VxZe9BzekyI/AAAAAAAAC_Q/masN3fiakSEfMJnGzyfvm7iCTsJwg52zQCKgB/s1600/manitoba%2B2015%2Bfederal%2Belection%2Btransposition.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-41FVJ8PpA6U/VxZe9BzekyI/AAAAAAAAC_Q/masN3fiakSEfMJnGzyfvm7iCTsJwg52zQCKgB/s640/manitoba%2B2015%2Bfederal%2Belection%2Btransposition.png" width="518" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LhRMp_4tPog/VxZfX0zJU5I/AAAAAAAAC_Y/cQYC9pbMZvU_-4KU-OsIosku6ebyNm5_QCLcB/s1600/Manitoba%2Bpartisan%2Bindex.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LhRMp_4tPog/VxZfX0zJU5I/AAAAAAAAC_Y/cQYC9pbMZvU_-4KU-OsIosku6ebyNm5_QCLcB/s640/Manitoba%2Bpartisan%2Bindex.png" width="518" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Overall, I am
predicting a landslide Progressive Conservative victory, with the
Tories winning 43 of the 57 seats in the legislature. This would be
their biggest electoral win in the province's history. I am
predicting that the governing NDP will be reduced to just 11 seats,
which would be their worst election since 1966. And ss for the
Liberals, I am predicting they will win three seats, their best total
since 1995.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Polls are suggesting
the Tories are winning about two-thirds of the vote in rural
Manitoba, which means they will likely sweep all of rural southern
Manitoba (including Brandon), leaving the NDP to their northern
stronghold (though they could close Flin Flon to the Liberals). In
Winnipeg, polls indicate that the Tories have at least a 15 point
lead over the NDP, which will see the PCs win back their former
suburban strongholds in the south and west ends, and eat into
traditional NDP territory in the north and east of the city. This
will reduce the NDP to their stronghold in the central and north
central parts of the city. Meanwhile the Liberals should hold on to
their lone seat of River Heights, and maybe pick up one or two more
seats thanks to vote splits. The Greens may also win a seat or two. </div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Here are my seat by seat ratings. Ridings are coloured in by how they voted in 2011. </div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OqDd6hcS16Y/VxZd0-CcMNI/AAAAAAAAC_A/B_VHKMDW-3UEuya2HaX0Bjklld8pT8NNgCLcB/s1600/Manitoba%2B2016%2Bseat%2Bratings.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OqDd6hcS16Y/VxZd0-CcMNI/AAAAAAAAC_A/B_VHKMDW-3UEuya2HaX0Bjklld8pT8NNgCLcB/s1600/Manitoba%2B2016%2Bseat%2Bratings.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Seat by seat rating.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Ridings to watch</b></h3>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
I've identified ten
ridings as “toss ups” - ridings where my numbers have shown a
close race. For each of these ridings I went with my gut (with
detailed reasoning) as to how I believe they will go:</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Concordia: </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">This
</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">n</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">orth
Winnipeg riding is being defended by incumbent </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">NDP
</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">MLA Matt Wiebe, who has
represented the seat since 2009, when he took over the riding from
its predecessor, former Premier Gary Doer. The seat has voted NDP in
every election since it was created in 1981. Wiebe won the seat in
2011 by 35 points, and it </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">is
</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">one of only five provincial
ridings to go NDP in the last federal election. On paper it is a safe
NDP seat, but with the amount of swing the polls are predicting, this
riding could be in play. I'm still predicting the NDP to hold on
though.</span></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Elmwood: </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">Right
next door to Concordia is Elmwood, which is being defended by
long-time </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">NDP </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">MLA
Jim Maloway, who has held this seat from 1986 to 2008 and since 2011.
This riding has also voted NDP </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">(</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">and
its predecessor, the CCF</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">)</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">
in every election since it was created in 1958. </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">The
result in the last</span><span style="font-weight: normal;"> election
in this seat was relatively close though, with Maloway defeating his
Tory opponent by 21 points. One glimmer of hope for the NDP is that
they did win the transposed federal result here. However, my numbers
show the PCs winning this seat in a close result, which is why I am
predicting they will win it. </span>
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Flin Flon: </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">This
riding, located in northwestern Manitoba will see an interesting
race, as its defending MLA Clarence Pettersen is running as an
independent, after he lost the NDP nomination. Flin Flon has been an
NDP seat since 1969, but Pettersen's candidacy is expected to split
the NDP vote. In the federal election, the NDP won Flin Flon over the
Liberals by a slim margin, suggesting the Liberals could be the party
that has the best chance at benefiting from the split. </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">The
provincial Liberals are also polling better than the NDP in rural
Manitoba. This is why I think they will win the seat.</span></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Fort
Garry-Riverview:</b><span style="font-weight: normal;"> The NDP won
this central Winnipeg seat in 2011, but this should be a Green-PC
race. Green Party leader James Beddome is running in this riding, and
of the four party leaders, he has the highest approval ratings. The
Greens are polling quite high in the city (around 10%) which is
enough to put this riding in play. Without riding polling, Green
Party targets are hard to predict, so it is hard to say whether
Beddome will win this seat. I'd prefer to hedge my bets though, and
go with the PCs here, who </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">could</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">
come up the middle against a divided progressive vote.</span></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Fort Rouge: </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">This
central Winnipeg seat is the riding where Liberal leader Rana Bokhari
has chosen to run. A riding poll from the beginning of the campaign
showed a three-way race with Bokhari ahead </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">of
the PC candidate </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">by just two
points. At that point in the campaign the Liberals were doing much
better in province-wide and city-wide polling, but now they are doing
much more poorly. It is entirely possible that this drop in Liberal
fortunes has happened in Fort Rouge as well. </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">The
NDP is running a star candidate in First Nations musician Wab Kinew,
</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">and I predict that t</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">his
split in the non-PC vote could cause </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">the
Tories </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">to</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">
come up the middle and win this seat for the first time since 1969.</span></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>St. Johns: </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">My
numbers suggest a tight NDP win in this north-end riding, but what
will make it hard for the New Democrats to keep this seat is the fact
that incumbent MLA Gord Mackintosh has decided to retire, making this
an open seat. This seat has been won by the NDP, and its predecessor
the CCF in every election since it was created in 1958, and
Mackintosh won the riding in 2011 by an impressive 44 point margin.
</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">Because of these factors, I
believe the NDP will manage to hang on to this seat. </span>
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>The Maples: </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">This
ethnically diverse riding in the northwest corner of Winnipeg has had
a history of electing Liberals to the provincial government, </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">but
none since 1995</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">. A rebound
in Liberal fortunes suggests that they will be competitive there, but
will it be enough for them to win? The NDP, which holds this riding,
is hoping for a split in the anti-NDP vote in order to hold on to the
riding. However, I believe the surging Tories will pick this up,
thanks to a split in the anti-PC vote, winning this riding for the
first time </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">ever</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">.
</span>
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Thompson: </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">Way
up in the north of the province is the riding of Thompson, which has
been held by the NDP's Steve Ashton </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">(who
had challenged NDP leader Greg Selinger in last year's leadership
election, following a caucus revolt) </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">since
1981. The riding has only voted for the Tories once </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">in
</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">its existence, in 1977.
However, my numbers suggest that this riding may be in play. It is
hard to fathom the PCs winning this seat though, considering Ashton
</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">won it by 40 points in 2011,
and his daughter, Nikki won Thompson i</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">n</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">
last year's federal election. Because of this, I think the NDP will
hold on to the riding.</span></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Tyndall Park: </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">The
Liberals came a close second in this </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">n</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">orthwest
Winnipeg seat in the last election, losing to the NDP's Ted Marcelino
by </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">a </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">10
point margin. Because of this, my numbers are suggesting a narrow
Liberal win here. Though, with their faltering campaign, it is not a
given, and either the NDP or the PCs might be able to win it as a
result. Though, I think I will trust my numbers and predict a Liberal
win here. </span>
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Wolseley: </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">This
central Winnipeg seat saw the Green's best result in 2011, when their
leader, James Beddome won 20% of the vote, coming in second </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">place</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">.
Beddome chose to run in Fort Garry-Riverview though, but the </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">Greens</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">
are still running a star candidate in environmentalist David Nickarz
</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">in this riding</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">.
NDP MLA Rob Altemeyer defeated Beddome by a 40 point margin in 2011,
a difference that will be very hard for Nickarz to overcome. </span><span style="font-weight: normal;">I</span><span style="font-weight: normal;">t
is hard to predict insurgent Green campaigns, and so I will play it
safe and predict an NDP hold here. </span>
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Outlook</b></h3>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
While losing will obviously be bad news for the NDP, it will mean
finally getting rid of Selinger, and replacing him with a stronger
leader. Also, beating out the Liberals for second place would be a
minor victory, as we know from the results of the federal election,
Manitobans would be quite willing to vote Liberal with the right
leader, and a third place finish for the NDP would be a disaster for
them.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
As for the Tories, many people are suggesting it could be a “one
and done” government for the party, due to weaknesses of Brian
Pallister. He is being likened to former PC Premier Stirling Lyon
who only lasted one term, before voters ditched his government in
1981. But, we may be getting ahead of ourselves here.
</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
For the Liberals, they would be wise to ditch Bokhari as leader,
though she will want to hang on if they make any seat gains. However,
she will probably have to keep her seat first!</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
For those who want
to follow the results, the polls close at 8pm Central Time, which is
9pm Eastern.</div>
Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-30368246867024997232016-04-11T16:52:00.000-04:002016-04-11T16:52:40.369-04:00Chicoutimi by-election charts and maps<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
Today, there is a provincial by-election in the riding of Chicoutimi in Quebec. The riding has been vacant since last October when PQ MNA Stéphane Bédard resigned his seat.<br />
<br />
The riding of Chicoutimi, located in northeastern Quebec has been a PQ stronghold since 1973. It consists of the former city of Chicoutimi, which is now part of the city of Saguenay. The riding is one of the most nationalist in Quebec, voting yes in both the 1980 and 1995 referendums by large margins.<br />
<br />
I have been quite busy lately, so I haven't had the chance to do my usual by-election profile. The riding should be an easy PQ hold though, so it shouldn't be that interesting of a race. The PQ is running businesswoman Mireille Jean as their candidate. Polls show her as the clear front runner.<br />
<br />
Despite not having the time to do a write up, I have made plenty of charts and a map...<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-xzAyuq2hEME/VwwL-sHcQDI/AAAAAAAAC-Q/fXo_RV_JHashFHlXPKBbMhMkLtnd0bnoQ/s1600/chicoutimi%2B2014.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="610" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-xzAyuq2hEME/VwwL-sHcQDI/AAAAAAAAC-Q/fXo_RV_JHashFHlXPKBbMhMkLtnd0bnoQ/s640/chicoutimi%2B2014.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
As you can see, the PQ won most of the riding in 2014, though the Liberals were strong in the southern and eastern suburbs. The CAQ won one poll as did Saguenay councillor Marc Pettersen, who ran as an independent.<br />
<br />
Here are the results by city council district for the last provincial and federal elections:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-uyHAP4PVqJQ/VwwMoWG5HvI/AAAAAAAAC-Y/lHcvC-h0kFEHxlGpQQjXe7iDbNoHI8Yog/s1600/chicoutimi%2B2014%2Bprovincial%2Bresults%2Bby%2Bdistrict.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="117" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-uyHAP4PVqJQ/VwwMoWG5HvI/AAAAAAAAC-Y/lHcvC-h0kFEHxlGpQQjXe7iDbNoHI8Yog/s640/chicoutimi%2B2014%2Bprovincial%2Bresults%2Bby%2Bdistrict.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">2014 provincial election in Chicoutimi - results by municipal district</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-WBokOYF8wVw/VwwND-Wyx2I/AAAAAAAAC-g/Xc_NW89oFXs64JpdmL4FjcLFD3TPeYQdg/s1600/chicoutimi%2B2015%2Bfederal%2Bresults%2Bby%2Bdistrict.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="112" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-WBokOYF8wVw/VwwND-Wyx2I/AAAAAAAAC-g/Xc_NW89oFXs64JpdmL4FjcLFD3TPeYQdg/s640/chicoutimi%2B2015%2Bfederal%2Bresults%2Bby%2Bdistrict.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">2015 federal election in Chicoutimi - results by municipal district </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
The following chart shows the vote progression of the riding since 1989. The boundaries have not shifted since then.<br />
<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0Tr5NdX3fuo/VwwNUCsP2xI/AAAAAAAAC-o/6jdWewA9PTwkFL_MK4YmGAwvWiAem1nsg/s1600/chicoutimi%2Bresults%2Bprogression.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0Tr5NdX3fuo/VwwNUCsP2xI/AAAAAAAAC-o/6jdWewA9PTwkFL_MK4YmGAwvWiAem1nsg/s1600/chicoutimi%2Bresults%2Bprogression.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Chicoutimi vote progression</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
And finally here is a list of the MNAs who have represented Chicoutimi since confederation:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-luitznKVIvw/VwwNxO7hdsI/AAAAAAAAC-s/o1QvMSOiR-4f8WP3vFHwVXR8NRfwhb39w/s1600/chicoutimi%2BMNA%2Blist.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-luitznKVIvw/VwwNxO7hdsI/AAAAAAAAC-s/o1QvMSOiR-4f8WP3vFHwVXR8NRfwhb39w/s1600/chicoutimi%2BMNA%2Blist.png" /></a></div>
<br />
Polls close at 8pm.<br />
<br />
Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-34191418142840448772016-04-04T12:35:00.001-04:002016-04-04T12:35:26.177-04:00Swingometer based prediction of the Saskatchewan election<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cYYy_V6-BAE/VwKWDui21AI/AAAAAAAAC9I/XtF3cn8tWe8-Do9tS2b69ikRPwczxsj5g/s1600/Sask%2B2016%2Bprediction.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="390" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cYYy_V6-BAE/VwKWDui21AI/AAAAAAAAC9I/XtF3cn8tWe8-Do9tS2b69ikRPwczxsj5g/s400/Sask%2B2016%2Bprediction.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Overall prediction. Green = Saskatchewan Party; Orange = NDP</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Voters
in Saskatchewan are heading to the polls today in the 28<sup>th</sup>
general election in the province's history. The governing
conservative “Saskatchewan Party” (Sask Party for short), buoyed
by the province's continued economic boom hopes to maintain their
massive majority in the province's Legislative Assembly. The Sask
Party, under the leadership of Premier Brad Wall has led the province
since 2007, when they ousted the New Democratic Party (NDP), who had
in turn ruled the province prior to that since 1991.
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<h3 class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><b><br />Background</b></i></h3>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The
last provincial election in 2011 saw the Saskatchewan Party win a
landslide majority, winning 49 seats to the NDP's nine. The large
thumping was largest landslide since 1982, and the Sask Party's 64%
share of the popular vote was the highest in the province's history.
The province had fallen in love with Brad Wall, and were enjoying the
province's new found economic prosperity. Since then, Wall has become
the poster boy of conservatism in Canada, especially since the defeat
of Prime Minister Harper last fall, and the defeat of countless
conservative provincial governments across the country. Every other
province is now led by either a Liberal or an NDP Premier (though the
Liberals in BC are notably right-of-centre).
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Wall's
popularity has made it difficult for the NDP to gain any traction in
opposition. Their defeat in 2011 forced its leader, Dwain
Lingenfelter to resign, which was helped by the fact that he lost his
Regina Doulgas Park seat. Lingenfelter would be replaced as leader by
Saskatoon Massey Place MLA Cam Broten, who has tried to renew the
party, perhaps exemplified by a new swanky retro looking logo.
However, the party has lingered in the polls in the mid 30s for much
of the last four years, nowhere close to the Sask Party which has not
dipped under 50% since the last election. All the polls now show the
Sask Party to be leading the NDP at around 60% to 30%.
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Since
2003, the province has only elected members of either the right wing
Saskatchewan Party and the left wing NDP. The provincial Liberals
have been nearly dead in the water since last winning a few seats in
1999. In the least election, the Liberals ran just nine candidates in
the 58 seat legislature, and won a grand total of 0.6% of the vote.
The Greens were the third party in that election. They ran a full
slate of candidates, winning nearly 3% of the province wide vote. But
for the Greens, Saskatchewan's brand of prairie populism is an
anathema to the party.
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
While
the Liberal brand is on the rise across the country, thanks to the
federal Liberals still enjoying a honeymoon period, the provincial
Liberals in Saskatchewan have failed to really capitalize on this.
The party is running a full slate in this election, but most polls
show them in mid-single digits, often behind the Greens. It is
unlikely the Liberals will win a seat, though their leader, Darrin
Lamoureux is running in a brand new riding and is not facing any
incumbents. In all likelihood though, this election will see all of
its seats go to either the Sask Party or the NDP. </div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Il89mo09co0/VwKWdSOAOKI/AAAAAAAAC9Q/WTMonQiD3lwAqQplmm_bamMRj4_wx8T5w/s1600/Saskatchewan%2Bswing-o-metre%2Bfor%2B2016.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="310" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Il89mo09co0/VwKWdSOAOKI/AAAAAAAAC9Q/WTMonQiD3lwAqQplmm_bamMRj4_wx8T5w/s640/Saskatchewan%2Bswing-o-metre%2Bfor%2B2016.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Swingometer! Click to enlarge.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<h3 class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><b>The
Swingometer</b></i></h3>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Considering
Saskatchewan is basically a two-party province, a fun way to make a
rough prediction of the election outcome is to use what is called a
“swingometrer”, something that viewers of British elections might
be familiar with. A swingometer shows the uniform swing needed for a
particular party to win a seat. My swingometer shows the two-party
swing needed from the result of the 2011 election. The two-party
swing is calculated as the average percentage point change each of
the two parties has to shift in a particular seat for the opposing
party to win it.
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
As
fun as swingometers are, this election will likely not be all that
fun to use it. All four polls that have come out just before the
election show a very small swing in the NDP's favour from the result
of the last election. The most NDP friendly of these polls was
conducted by Mainstreet Research, which showed a 1.6% swing from the
last election (it gave the NDP 31%, down 1% from the last election
and the Saskatchewan Party 60%, down 4.3% from the 64.3% they won in
2011 – giving a swing to the NDP of 1.6%). This swing would net the
NDP just one extra seat (Saskatoon Fairview), albeit just barely. The
other three polls are less favourable to the NDP, showing even
smaller swings in their direction. <i>Insights West'</i><span style="font-style: normal;">s</span><i>
</i><span style="font-style: normal;">poll showed the smallest swing,
just 0.1% </span><span style="font-style: normal;">to the NDP</span><span style="font-style: normal;">.
Except for the </span><i>Mainstreet </i><span style="font-style: normal;">poll,
none of the other pollsters show a swing that </span><span style="font-style: normal;">would
be</span><span style="font-style: normal;"> large enough for the NDP
to gain any seats. Average the </span><span style="font-style: normal;">four
polls,</span><span style="font-style: normal;"> and the swingometer
tells us that this election will produce a</span><span style="font-style: normal;">n
exact</span><span style="font-style: normal;"> status quo result. Due
to the recent seat redistribution, this would give the Saskatchewan
Party two extra seats from their 2011 result (51 seats) and the NDP
one extra seat (for a total of ten). </span>
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">To
win a majority government, the NDP would need a 17.4% </span><span style="font-style: normal;">uniform
</span><span style="font-style: normal;">swing in their favour, which
would give them the 31</span><sup><span style="font-style: normal;">st</span></sup><span style="font-style: normal;">
riding on the swingometer, Saskatchewan Rivers. The NDP would need a
22.2% swing to win the riding of Yorkton, which is the province's
best bellwether, </span><span style="font-style: normal;">which has</span><span style="font-style: normal;">
voted for the winning party since 1964. For Brad Wall to go down in
defeat, the NDP would need a </span><span style="font-style: normal;">uniform
</span><span style="font-style: normal;">swing of 31.6% to claim his
riding of Swift Current. All this is a moot though, as the NDP is not
going to come close to winning a majority.</span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">So,
are we headed for the status quo? Maybe. But, the pollsters are
showing different regional swings, which might put some seats in
play. </span><span style="font-style: normal;">Also keeping in mind
that the swingometer is a measure of </span><i><span style="text-decoration: none;">uniform
</span></i><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">swing,
and we all know that in reality, ridings do not swing in tandem. If
we take a look at the regional breakdowns in the recent polls, we see
that m</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;">ost of the swing
in the NDP's favour is coming from Regina. An average of three
regional polls suggests a 3.7% swing to the NDP in the province's
capital. This would be enough to claim the riding of Regina Douglas
Park </span><span style="font-style: normal;">(2.5% swing needed)</span><span style="font-style: normal;">,
the seat that former NDP leader Dwain Lingenfelter lost to the Sask
Party's Russ Marchuk in 2011. Marchuk will not be running for
re-election, and redistribution has made the seat much more NDP
friendly, so a win there would not be unexpected for the New
Democrats. </span>
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<h3 class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</h3>
<h3>
</h3>
<h3 class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><b>Seats
to watch</b></i></h3>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">Outside
</span><span style="font-style: normal;">of </span><span style="font-style: normal;">Regina
Douglas Park, none of the regional polls suggest any other seats will
change hands using the swingometer. Of course, that's not to say that
none will. Here are my picks for seats that could change hands </span><span style="font-style: normal;">(other
than Regina Douglas Park)</span><span style="font-style: normal;">:</span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">-
</span><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>Moose Jaw Wakamow: </b></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">This
riding was won by the Saskatchewan Party in 2011, but boundary
changes have made it a notional NDP seat. The Sask Party has the
incumbency advantage, and the NDP is not running the same candidate
as they did in 2011, so this is a possible “pick-up” for the
governing party, albeit just a notional one. The </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Saskatchewan
Party </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">only
need</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">s</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">
a 0.7% swing to win </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">this
seat</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">.</span></span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">-
</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>Saskatoon Fairview:
</b></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Using
the swingometer, this is the NDP's #1 target. They would </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">only
</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">need
a 1.6% swing to claim the seat. </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">However,
regional</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">
polls </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">in
Saskatoon </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">suggest
the New Democrats may not even see a swing in their favour in the
city. </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Making
it harder for the NDP is they are up against </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Jennifer
Campeau, the minister of Central Services, </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">who</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">
is the incumbent.</span></span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">-
</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>Prince Albert
Northcote: </b></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">On
the swingometer, t</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">his
is the next seat on the NDP's target list </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">after
Saskatoon Fairview</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">.
The Sask Party won it in a close race in 2011. The NDP is not running
the same candidate however, so it might be hard to defeat the </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Sask
Party </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">incumbent.
The NDP needs a swing of 1.8% to win it.</span></span></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">-
</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>Regina Coronation
Park:</b></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">
Two of the three regional polls in Regina give the NDP a large enough
swing to pick up this seat, which the New Democrats would need 4.8%
swing to pick up. They would have to defeat cabinet minister Mark
Docherty to claim it though. </span></span>
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Wild
card: </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>Regina
Pasqua: </b></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">This
brand new riding in the southwest corner of Regina is, on paper a
somewhat </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">safe</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">
Saskatchewan Party seat. The </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Sask
Party</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">
would have won it with 56% of the vote in 2011 had the riding existed
then. However as it is a new seat, they have no incumbent </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">in
the race</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">.
And this is the riding where Liberal leader Darrin Lamoureux is
running. </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Considering
t</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">he
Liberals are polling in the upper lower digits in Regina though, it
is unlikely </span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">that
</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">they
will win it. </span></span>
</div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ww00dSrafFU/VwKWsNOpMKI/AAAAAAAAC9Y/yDcEqRSmOM0UPJJcxLaihCsmpIoAytabQ/s1600/Sask%2B2016%2Bprediction%2Bcard.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ww00dSrafFU/VwKWsNOpMKI/AAAAAAAAC9Y/yDcEqRSmOM0UPJJcxLaihCsmpIoAytabQ/s1600/Sask%2B2016%2Bprediction%2Bcard.png" /></a></div>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<h3 class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i>Outlook</i></h3>
<div class="western" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">Using my swingometer, and looking at
the regional swings in recent polls, I predict that the Saskatchewan
Party will win a landslide majority, winning 50 seats to the NDP's
11. My swingometer-based prediction is that the NDP will win one more
seat than they would have in 2011 on the new </span><span style="font-style: normal;">boundaries</span><span style="font-style: normal;">
(Regina Douglas Park). </span>
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">If the polls are correct, then we
are looking at a very boring election, with very few – if any –
ridings changing hands. Brad Wall, the most popular premier in the
country is destined for his third straight majority. Polls close at
8pm Central Standard Time (10pm Eastern Daylight Time).</span></div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Seat by seat prediction (ridings coloured by how they would have voted in 2011 on the new boundaries):<br />
<br />
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WKfQRZM_bWU/VwKXB64S9qI/AAAAAAAAC9g/3_A53Mg8fYs7kwfpCKt5umJjAnUqsUpkQ/s1600/Sask%2B2016%2Bprediction%2Btable.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WKfQRZM_bWU/VwKXB64S9qI/AAAAAAAAC9g/3_A53Mg8fYs7kwfpCKt5umJjAnUqsUpkQ/s1600/Sask%2B2016%2Bprediction%2Btable.png" /></a></div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="western" style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-18798484923996951232016-03-18T16:16:00.000-04:002016-03-18T16:16:32.309-04:00Saskatchewan's new electoral map<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KljLXhw4-BA/VuxgQdHQwAI/AAAAAAAAC8Y/npC38VAKcEoTgvIGwBI1__WAwwo7CEVdg/s1600/Saskatchewan%2B2011%2B%25282015%2Bboundaries%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="390" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KljLXhw4-BA/VuxgQdHQwAI/AAAAAAAAC8Y/npC38VAKcEoTgvIGwBI1__WAwwo7CEVdg/s400/Saskatchewan%2B2011%2B%25282015%2Bboundaries%2529.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The results of the 2011 election on the new map</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The Saskatchewan
provincial election, scheduled for April 4 is fast approaching, and
voters will be electing their Members of the Legislative Assembly on
a new map. The size of the legislature will be increasing from 58
seats to 61, to compensate for the growth in Saskatchewan's two
largest cities, Saskatoon and Regina. Elections Saskatchewan has not
provided for a transposition of the 2011 provincial election results,
so I have once again done my own transposition of votes.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The 2011 election
saw the conservative Saskatchewan Party win in a landslide, picking
up 49 of the 58 seats, while the remaining nine seats were won by the
NDP. The Saskatchewan Party swept rural Saskatchewan, winning every
seat outside of Saskatoon and Regina except for the two northern
ridings, which were won by the NDP. In Regina, the Saskatchewan Party
took eight of the 11 seats, and in Saskatoon they took 8 of the 12
seats, leaving the NDP with three and four seats respectively.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Hu2g4vHfaW4/VuxgfpMj-QI/AAAAAAAAC8c/aSz1NeKV4JwM_eF3s0KrC9O77bdSp75yA/s1600/saskatchewan%2B2011.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Hu2g4vHfaW4/VuxgfpMj-QI/AAAAAAAAC8c/aSz1NeKV4JwM_eF3s0KrC9O77bdSp75yA/s400/saskatchewan%2B2011.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Actual results of the 2011 election</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />The redistribution
process gave two new seats to Saskatoon and one new seat to Regina.
Outside of the big cities, there were still boundary changes, but
nothing too major. Considering the three new seats were added to the
cities, one might be inclined to believe the NDP would have been the
benefactor of the redistribution. This may be true in an even 50-50
race, but using the 2011 results, the extra seats would have helped
the Saskatchewan Party, as they were added to suburban areas, which
favoured the Sask Party in 2011. All three of the new seats would
have voted for the Saskatchewan Party in 2011.<br />
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-PkRBOwmw148/Vuxg9gCATGI/AAAAAAAAC8k/RgIkHMzUn5IzPqfXN5fi-W9_JHbHaFX5g/s1600/Sask%2Bredist%2Bseat%2Bchange.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-PkRBOwmw148/Vuxg9gCATGI/AAAAAAAAC8k/RgIkHMzUn5IzPqfXN5fi-W9_JHbHaFX5g/s1600/Sask%2Bredist%2Bseat%2Bchange.png" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The NDP did benefit
with the re-drawing of the Moose Jaw Wakamow riding. In 2011, the
Saskatchewan Party candidate won the seat with 49.1% of the vote to
the NDP's 45.9%. The mostly urban riding contained five rural polls
that voted overwhelmingly for the Saskatchewan Party. The
redistribution however removed all five rural polls, which would have
been enough to turn the riding orange, giving the NDP a theoretical
48.3% to 46.9% victory. Overall, this means that redistribution would
have given the Saskatchewan Party a net gain of two seats and the NDP
one.<br />
<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-AlVY4g95-04/VuxhXf1as2I/AAAAAAAAC8s/G1qmbq6hqSkbSwOUPwru1Bq8U7L1pyUCw/s1600/Sask%2Bredist%2Bseat%2Bchart.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-AlVY4g95-04/VuxhXf1as2I/AAAAAAAAC8s/G1qmbq6hqSkbSwOUPwru1Bq8U7L1pyUCw/s1600/Sask%2Bredist%2Bseat%2Bchart.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Redistributed results of the 2011 election by riding</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<h3>
<i><b>Regional
analysis</b></i></h3>
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Most of the major
boundary changes occurred in and around the major urban areas of the
province. Most rural ridings saw only minor boundary shifts.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<h4>
<i><b>Saskatoon
exurbs </b></i>
</h4>
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
North of Saskatoon, the riding of Martensville was divided up with
the more rural northern portion (including the communities of
Waldheim, Hague and Dalmeny) being transferred to the new riding of
Biggar-Sask Valley, which was created mostly out of the former Biggar
riding. The larger Martensville riding communities of Martensville
and Warman were moved into a new Martensville-Warman riding, along
with two rural polls taken from Saskatoon Northwest. That riding now
becomes an exclusive exurban riding north of Saskatoon, as its other
four rural polls were transferred to Rosetown-Elrose. East of
Saskatoon, the new “rurban” riding of Saskatoon
Stonebridge-Dakota was created, taking in the Stonebridge subdivision
and part of the Briarwood subdivision in Saskatoon and combining it
with a large swath of rural territory to the city's south and east,
including the Dundurn area and the Village of Clavet. This rural
territory includes parts of the former ridings of Humboldt and Arm
River-Watrous. To compensate, the Humboldt riding had to move its
southern boundary past Watrous (thus becoming the new riding of
“Humbolt-Watrous”), while Arm River-Watrous also had to move its
southern boundary, taking in parts of the riding of Thunder Creek.
Losing Watrous meant that the riding would be re-named to just “Arm
River”.
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<h4>
<i><b>Saskatoon city</b></i></h4>
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
In addition to the new riding of Saskatoon Stonebridge-Dakota, the
City of Saskatoon gains one new riding, in its east end. Most of the
ridings in Saskatoon saw minimal boundary changes, but a number of
ridings on the east side of the city saw larger changes to
accommodate the addition of a new riding (as well as the
aforementioned Saskatoon Stonebridge-Dakota.)
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The riding of Saskatoon Southeast has become much smaller, as it
loses all of its rural territory, as well as the subdivision of
Stonebridge and part of Briarwood to the new riding of Saskatoon
Stonebridge-Dakota. Saskatoon Greystone loses the neighbourhoods of
Greystone Heights and Grosvenor Park (gaining part of Saskatoon
Eastview to compensate), thus forcing a name change to “Saskatoon
Churchill-Wildwood”). Greystone Heights and Grosvenor Park are
moved to the new riding of Saskatoon University, which is made up
mostly of the former Saskatoon Sutherland riding. In the northeast
corner of the city, the old riding of Saskatoon Silver Springs is
essentially being divided into two. The western half of the riding
(west of Lowe Rd.) becomes the new riding of Saskatoon
Silverspring-Sutherland, which also adds the Sutherland neighbourhood
from Saskatoon Sutherland (hence the name change to “Saskatoon
University”). The eastern half of Saskatoon Silver Springs becomes
the new riding of “Saskatoon Willowgrove”, which also adds the
eastern half of the College Park East neighbourhood from Saskatoon
Sutherland and two polls in Briarwood and a rural poll from Saskatoon
Southeast.</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<h4>
<i><b>Regina exurbs</b></i></h4>
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
West of Regina, all of the rural parts of Regina Qu'Appelle Valley
have been redistributed into the new riding of “Lumsden-Morse”, a
sprawling rural riding that runs from Regina westward to Swift
Current, taking in much of the former riding of Thunder Creek. The
new Lumsden-Morse riding also takes in the rural area southwest of
Regina, including the communities of Rouleau and Avonlea, which were
previously in the riding of Indian Head-Milestone. Indian
Head-Milestone shifts its borders eastward to compensate.
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
East of Regina, the riding of Regina Wascana Plains loses the
community of Pilot Butte to Indian Head-Milestone, and the Regina
neighbourhoods of University Park (transferred to Regina University)
and part of Windsor Park (transferred to Regina Gardiner Park).
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<h4>
<i><b>Regina city</b></i></h4>
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Within the city of Regina, there were quite a few boundary shifts in
suburban ridings to make way for the one brand new riding in the
city. On the east side of the city, Regina Dewdney has been renamed
to “Regina Gardiner Park”. It loses the neighbourhood of Glen Elm
Park South to Regina Douglas Park, and part of Glen Cairn to Regina
Northeast, while gaining Rothwell Place from Regina Northeast and
part of Windsor Park from Regina Wascana Plains. On the south side of
the city, Regina South splits in two, with the area east of Albert
Street becoming the new riding of Regina University (which will also
include the neighbourhood of Hillsdale, currently in Regina Douglas
Park) and the area west of Albert Street joining the new riding of
“Regina Pasqua”. In addition to the west side of Regina South,
Regina Pasqua will also include all of the Albert Park area of the
city and the Regina International Airport, currently in the riding of
Regina Lakeview as well as Pioneer Village currently in Regina
Rosemont. To compensate, Regina Lakeview has moved eastward to take
in the Wascana Lake area from Regina Douglas Park. Meanwhile, Regina
Rosemont shifts its boundaries northward, taking in the neighbourhood
of Normanview West North, currently split between Regina Qu'Appelle
Valley and Regina Walsh Acres. This forces Regina Walsh Acres to move
its westward boundary to include Sherwood Estates, currently in
Regina Qu-Appelle Valley. The remainder of the urban portion Regina
Qu-Appelle Valley has become the new riding of “Regina Rochdale”.
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<h4>
<i><b>Swift Current</b></i></h4>
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Premier Brad Wall's riding of Swift Current has shrunk in size, with
its boundaries becoming nearly coterminous with the city's
boundaries. The riding loses all of its rural area, with about four
polls being transferred to Cypress Hills, about three polls to
Lumsden-Morse and one poll to Wood River.</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<h4>
<i><b>Yorkton</b></i></h4>
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Saskatchewan's bellwether riding of Yorkton also shrinks in size, as
the riding becomes strictly urban in nature. The riding loses most of
its rural territory to Canora-Pelly with half a poll being
transferred to Melville-Saltcoats.
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<h4>
<i><b>Moose Jaw</b></i></h4>
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
As mentioned earlier, Moose Jaw's southern riding of Moose Jaw
Wakamow loses all of its rural territory to Lumsden-Morse, becoming a
notional NDP riding. The riding also gains the far east end of the
city from the riding of Moose Jaw North, which remains a notional
Sask Part riding.
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
While there were other boundary changes across the province, those
are probably the most noteworthy.</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IcbrFG64TMA/VuxhvDzv3YI/AAAAAAAAC80/lWWNp9f-08o5RrG7AMXPt-KcS6yU-d3Tg/s1600/Saskatchewan%2B2015%2Bmap%2Bkey.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="558" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IcbrFG64TMA/VuxhvDzv3YI/AAAAAAAAC80/lWWNp9f-08o5RrG7AMXPt-KcS6yU-d3Tg/s640/Saskatchewan%2B2015%2Bmap%2Bkey.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Saskatchewan's new election map (click to enlarge) </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br /></div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
If the Saskatchewan Party can win another landslide on April 4, this
transposition map will likely be very similar to the election
results. But this is in no way a prediction of what will happen. That
will be coming a little bit closer to election day.
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-75527993027323455782016-02-21T12:02:00.000-05:002016-02-21T12:02:22.592-05:00Victoriaville, Quebec mayoral by-election today<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TYivwohCOJM/VsnsyGGGkuI/AAAAAAAAC78/OOcv_5AZMrI/s1600/victoriaville%2Blocation%25281%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="186" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TYivwohCOJM/VsnsyGGGkuI/AAAAAAAAC78/OOcv_5AZMrI/s400/victoriaville%2Blocation%25281%2529.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Location of Victoriaville</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Residents of the city of Victoriaville, Quebec are heading to the polls today in a rare mayoral by-election. The city of 43,000 people in central Quebec is the main city in Quebec's Bois-Francs region, known for being Quebec's breadbasket. The city's top post has been filled on an interim basis by councillor Christian Lettre since the previous mayor Alain Rayes' election to the House of Commons for the Conservatives last October.<br />
<br />
Politically, Victoriaville sits at the edges of Quebec's more conservative and nationalist leaning regions, and has elected both Conservatives and Bloquistes to the House of Commons in recent elections. Federally, the city is in the riding of Richmond—Arthabaska which the Tories picked up from the Bloc in last year's federal election with the election of Rayes. The BQ's André Bellavance had held the riding since 2004 before that. André Bachand held the riding for the Progressive Conservatives from 1997 to 2004. The city of Victoriaville itself has been much more nationalist than the riding as whole though, voting for the BQ candidate even when the riding voted PC in 1997 and 2000.<br />
<br />
Provincially, Victoriaville is in the riding of Arthabaska, which has been held by Sylvie Roy of the right-of-centre Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) since 2012. Arthabaska has been won by the nationalist Parti Québécois and the federalist Liberals in recent years as well. The Liberals' Claude Bachand held the seat from 2003 to 2007 and from 2008 to 2012. The PQ held the riding from 1989 to 2003, and the CAQ's predecessor, the ADQ held the riding briefly from 2007 to 2008. Arthabaska backed the “Non” side in the 1980 sovereignty referendum, but switched to the “Oui” side for the 1995 referendum, though “Oui” only won 56% to 44%.<br />
<br />
<br />
<h3>
Background </h3>
<h3>
</h3>
Rayes had been mayor of Victoriaville since 2009, when the post was opened up due to the city's previous mayor, Roger Richard (who had been mayor since 2001) decision to to not run for re-election. Rayes, who had been a mathematics and science teacher, won the 2009 mayoral election with 62% of the vote, defeating his nearest opponent, Éric Lefebvre by over 5000 votes. In the 2013 municipal elections, Rayes was re-elected with no opposition. Before his entry into municipal politics, Rayes had previously run for the ADQ in the 2003 provincial election, losing to the Liberals by just 1200 votes in the riding of Arthabaska.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-J0q8kT4oZRY/Vsns-f6J5LI/AAAAAAAAC8A/2LcpbfaoN80/s1600/victoriaville%2Bward%2Bmap-labelled.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-J0q8kT4oZRY/Vsns-f6J5LI/AAAAAAAAC8A/2LcpbfaoN80/s640/victoriaville%2Bward%2Bmap-labelled.png" width="611" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Map of Victoriaville's 10 municipal districts (wards)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
Unlike many larger cities in Quebec, Victoriaville has no municipal political parties, perhaps the reason for the lack of competitive races on council in the last election. In 2013, residents in three of Victoriaville's 10 wards (districts) had nothing to vote for, as not only was the mayor acclaimed, so were their local councillors. The only competitive race in the city was one of the two districts with no incumbents running. The eight incumbents running for re-election were easily re-elected to their seats.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Outlook </h3>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-f2gu5A5uQS4/VsntK9cxCPI/AAAAAAAAC8E/9AcHPvPz5mw/s1600/victoriaville%2B2016%2B%2528by%2529%2Bcandidates.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-f2gu5A5uQS4/VsntK9cxCPI/AAAAAAAAC8E/9AcHPvPz5mw/s1600/victoriaville%2B2016%2B%2528by%2529%2Bcandidates.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Candidates for mayor</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
There are four candidates running to serve as mayor of Vicoriaville until the next municipal elections in 2017. The most well known candidate is easily André Bellavance, who was the riding's Member of Parliament from 2004 to 2005, and served as the Bloc Québécois' leader in the House of Commons briefly in the last parliament. He ran for the party's leadership in 2014, narrowly losing to Mario Beaulieu. Following his defeat, Bellavance left the BQ, and sat as an Independent for the remainder of his term. He did not run in the 2015 federal election, which saw the BQ reduced to a fourth place finish in his riding of Richmond—Arthabaska.<br />
<br />
To people in Victoriaville, the next well known candidate is probably Gilles Lafontaine, who was the councillor for Arthabaska-Ouest, a district in the city's southeast, an area of the city which had been in the city of Arthabaska, before it was amalgamated into Victoriaville in 1993. Lafontaine has served on council since winning his seat in 2009, defeating incumbent councillor Donald Dumont by just 46 votes. He was easily re-elected in 2013, defeating his only opponent Charles Boulanger 905 votes to 364. To run for mayor, Lafontaine gave up his seat on council, which may spur on another by-election in the city down the road.<br />
<br />
There are two other candidates running, André Guillemette and Simon Roux. Guillemette, a local businessman had previously run for council in 2013 in the Parc-Victoria district, losing to incumbent Marc Morin 677 votes to 485. It was the closest an incumbent councillor came to losing in that election. Roux on the other hand is a political neophyte. He is a 24 year old carpenter, making his first entry into politics.<br />
<br />
Due to name recognition alone, I'd imagine Bellavance will probably win, though this prediction is cautioned by my ignorance of small city municipal politics in Quebec. We'll find out who wins for sure when polls close at 8pm. Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-82627045276719356472016-02-11T13:56:00.000-05:002016-02-11T13:56:22.991-05:00Whitby-Oshawa by-election today
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Today, voters in the
suburban Greater Toronto Area (GTA) riding of Whitby—Oshawa are
heading to the polls to elect a new member to Queen's Park, Ontario's
legislative assembly. The riding was vacated in August, when its
Member of Provincial Parliament (MPP), Christine Elliott resigned her
seat. Elliott, the wife of the late Jim Flaherty, who was Canada's
Finance Minister from 2006 to 2014, had run for the leadership of the
Ontario Progressive Conservatives in 2014. She was the frontrunner
from the onset, but was defeated by the insurgent candidacy of then
Barrie Member of Parliament (MP) Patrick Brown. A week after Brown
was elected in a by-election to the legislature, she resigned her
seat, prompting today's by-election. She will become Ontario's first
Patient Ombudsman next year.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
This will be the
second by-election in Whitby—Oshawa in fewer than two years. There
was a federal by-election held there back in November of 2014, to
replace Flaherty who had passed away the previous Spring. The
Conservatives held the seat in that by-election, but lost the
re-distributed riding of Whitby in last Fall's federal election to
the Liberals. You can read more about the riding's demographics and
geography in my profile of the riding from 2014 <a href="http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/11/federal-by-elections-in-yellowhead-and.html">here</a>. <a href="http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/11/federal-by-elections-in-yellowhead-and.html"> </a></div>
<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i> </i></h3>
<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i>Provincial
history</i></h3>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The
riding was created in 2005, when the provincial government decided to
continue to have southern Ontario's riding boundaries match the
federal boundaries (which has been the case since 1999), following
the 2003 federal riding redistribution. Elliott has held the riding
since its first election in 2007. She faced her toughest challenge in
that election, defeating the second place Liberal candidate by over
4000 votes. In 2011, she expanded this winning margin to over 7500
votes. In 2014, she won the riding again, defeating her Liberal
challenger by almost the same margin. In 2014, Whitby—Oshawa was
only one of two GTA seats that the Tories won (the other being
Thornhill), a testament to the popularity of the Elliott/Flaherty
family.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-k9y-nvWFEEM/VrzYRGjet5I/AAAAAAAAC7U/fezszwF5H24/s1600/whitby-oshawa%2Bmpps.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-k9y-nvWFEEM/VrzYRGjet5I/AAAAAAAAC7U/fezszwF5H24/s1600/whitby-oshawa%2Bmpps.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Historical list of MPPs</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Prior to 2007,
Whitby was located in the riding of Whitby—Ajax. This was Jim
Flaherty's riding before entering into federal politics. When he was
elected to the House of Commons, Elliott won the seat in a
by-election in 2006. Whitby—Ajax was created in 1996 when the Mike
Harris government decided to shrink the size of Queen's Park so that
the federal riding boundaries would match the provincial riding
boundaries. Before this, Whitby was in the riding of Durham Centre
from 1987 to 1999, in Durham West from 1975 to 1987, Ontario South
(1967-1975), Ontario (1934-1967) and Ontario South again (1867-1934). </div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-TYwYzLVPVhM/VrzYenK5jrI/AAAAAAAAC7c/Y2u4xTtbklg/s1600/whitby-oshawa%2Bvote%2Bprogression.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-TYwYzLVPVhM/VrzYenK5jrI/AAAAAAAAC7c/Y2u4xTtbklg/s1600/whitby-oshawa%2Bvote%2Bprogression.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Whitby--Oshawa vote progression</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The Whitby area has
been a Tory strong hold since the 1950s. Since 1955, the Progressive
Conservatives have won the area in all but three elections. The NDP
won in a three-way race in 1975 when that party formed the official
opposition in a minority government, only to lose Whitby's riding in
the next election in 1977. The Liberals picked it up in the 1987
landslide election, but lost it to the NDP when they won a surprise
majority government in 1990. The Tories won the seat back in 1995,
when Flaherty won the riding of Durham Centre in a landslide.
Flaherty and his wife have held Whitby for the Tories ever since.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /><br />
</div>
<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i>Political
geography</i></h3>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
As
Whitby is mostly exclusively GTA suburbia, the whole town (yes,
despite having a population of 122,000, Whitby is still a “town”)
votes generally the same way. The Tories are a bit weaker in the
northeast part of the town and in south. In 2014, the weakest
neighbourhood for the Tories in Whitby was the new subdivision of
Taunton North, located on the north side of Taunton Road. This was
one of two neighbourhoods the Liberals managed to win, the other
being Port Whitby, which is located on Lake Ontario in the south. The
far north of Whitby is the most conservative part of the town, as
this area is still mostly rural, except for the community of
Brooklin. Rural Whitby was the only part of the town where Elliott
managed to win a majority of the vote in 2014. The best neighbourhood
for the Liberals was Port Whitby where they won 37% of the vote, and
the best neighbourhood for the NDP was the Downtown, where they won
27% of the vote, but still in third place.</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-s4G5xIIYfXo/VrzYrnG3gtI/AAAAAAAAC7k/GGHQiclEUgk/s1600/whitby-oshawa%2B2014.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-s4G5xIIYfXo/VrzYrnG3gtI/AAAAAAAAC7k/GGHQiclEUgk/s640/whitby-oshawa%2B2014.png" width="434" /></a></div>
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<br />
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
In
the smaller Oshawa portion of the riding, the race in 2014 was more
between the Tories and the NDP. The NDP won one neighbourhood in
Oshawa (McLaughlin), which is the neighbourhood closest to Oshawa's
downtown. In that neighbourhood, the NDP won 37% of the vote. The NDP
always seems to manage to win a few polls there. Even in the 2014
federal by-election where the NDP won 8% of the vote across the
riding, they still won a couple of polls in McLaughlin.
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xujrjheF0VY/VrzY1L1tudI/AAAAAAAAC7s/7MljpOjoo34/s1600/whitby-oshawa%2B2014%2Bresults%2Bby%2Barea.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xujrjheF0VY/VrzY1L1tudI/AAAAAAAAC7s/7MljpOjoo34/s1600/whitby-oshawa%2B2014%2Bresults%2Bby%2Barea.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">2014 provincial election results by neighbourhood</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Outside
of McLaughlin, the rest of the Oshawa portion of the riding is more
Tory-leaning, as it is more suburban. In 2014, Elliott won every
other neighbourhood in the city. Her strongest part of Oshawa was the
rural northern part, where she won 47% of the vote. The Liberal's
only finished second in one Oshawa neighbourhood, Northglen, which
was also their best Oshawa neighbourhood, winning 29% of the vote.
</div>
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<br />
</div>
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<br />
</div>
<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i>Outlook</i></h3>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Despite
the federal Liberals enjoying a honeymoon period following last
Fall's federal election, the provincial Liberals in Ontario are
deeply unpopular, following a number of scandals. The most recent
poll published by Forum Research in December showed the Liberals
trailing the Tories by 3 points (34-31), with Premier Kathleen Wynne
at a rock bottom approval rating of 23%. This represents a drop of 8
points for the Liberals since the 2014 election, and a three point
gain for the Tories. Based on this alone, it would seem that the
Tories would be in a good position to keep a safe seat like
Whitby—Oshawa in a by-election. And local riding polls confirm
this. Mainstreet's <a href="http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/pcs-set-win-whitby-oshawa/">last poll </a>published just yesterday
shows the Tories winning the riding over the Liberals 46% to 29%,
with the NDP at a distant 12%. The Liberals have tried their best in
their campaign in the riding, even bringing in Justin Trudeau, to rub
some of that honeymoon love into the Liberal campaign, but to no
avail.
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Looking
to keep the seat for the Progressive Conservatives is their
candidate, Lorne Coe, one of three Durham regional councillors
representing Whitby. His main opponent will be another one of those
regional councillors, Elizabeth Roy, who is running for the Liberals.
Roy previously ran against Elliott in the 2011 election. The NDP is
running labour and human rights lawyer Niki Lundquist, while the
Greens are running Stacey Leadbetter, a local law clerk.
</div>
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<br />
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
One
reason why the Tories have kept winning in Whitby was due to the
popularity of Flaherty and Elliott. Demographically, the riding is
not that much different from the rest of the suburban GTA, which was
nearly swept by the Liberals in 2014. In last year's federal
election, without either a Flaherty or an Elliott on the ballot, the
Liberals managed to win the riding in a close race. Perhaps if the
provincial Liberals enjoyed the popularity that their federal
counterparts had, they could win this seat. But they do not, so it
looks very likely that this riding will be a Tory hold.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Polls
close at 9 pm.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
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<br />
</div>
Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-7187781127516806942015-11-30T11:59:00.000-05:002015-11-30T11:59:24.038-05:00Newfoundland and Labrador election forecast
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_6m_mPDUTQU/VlyADx65jLI/AAAAAAAAC68/khrZ3CqJGDE/s1600/NL%2B2015%2Bforecast%2Bmap.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="383" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_6m_mPDUTQU/VlyADx65jLI/AAAAAAAAC68/khrZ3CqJGDE/s400/NL%2B2015%2Bforecast%2Bmap.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A very <i>qualitative </i>seat forecast for today's election</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Today is the day of
the 2015 Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election, where voters
in that province will be electing members to the 40 seat Newfoundland
and Labrador House of Assembly. After governing the province since
2003, the Progressive Conservative Party, led by Premier Paul Davis
is expected to go down to defeat to the opposition Liberal Party, led
by Dwight Ball. Polls have continuously shown the Liberals with the
lead over the Tories since 2013, and their lead in recent polls has
been quite substantial. With the outcome all but a certainty, the
question will be, which seats will the Liberals not win, if any? The
Liberals have been an unstoppable force since the 2011 election,
winning every single by-election, and gaining a number of defectors
from other parties along the way. The Liberals went from winning just
six seats in 2011 to having 16 when the writs were dropped.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Recent polls by
Abacus and Corporate Research Associates (CRA) both show the Liberals
with more than a 40 point lead over the Tories (64-22 and 67-22,
respectively), while Forum Research published a recent poll showing a
closer race, with the Liberals at 52% to the Tories' 29%. All three
polls showed the NDP in third, in the teens. If Abacus and CRA are
correct, it would be the largest Liberal victory in the province
since 1956. In that election, the Liberals won 32 of 36 seats in the
Assembly and 66% of the vote. This was the highest share of the votes
the Liberals have ever won in the province.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Newfoundland and
Labrador voters are no strangers to voting en masse for one party,
whether its in provincial or in federal elections. Just last month,
64.5% of voters in the province voted for the federal Liberals,
leading to that party sweeping the province's seven seats. In the
last three provincial elections, the Tories won the support of a
healthy majority of voters, including winning 70% of the vote in
2007, the highest vote share any party has won in Canadian history.
Despite that historic number, voters in four ridings bucked the
trend, electing three Liberals and one New Democrat to oppose the
PCs, who won 44 seats.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
If winning 70% of
the vote wasn't enough for the Tories to win every seat in the 2007
election, will the Liberals be able to do it today? The Tories could
not win at least two of those four seats they lost in that election
due to socio-economic and demographic factors in those ridings. Two
of those seats, Burgeo-La Poile and Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair are
both very remote, impoverished ridings facing large declines in their
populations. They have the kind of demographics that are the very
antithesis of Tory politics, even though the PC leader at the time
was the populist Danny Williams, who built his majority on attacking
the federal Conservatives. So, are there any ridings in the province
that are the antithesis to Liberal politics, which will buck the
trend tonight? Maybe, though I would argue the Liberal brand is
strong enough in the province that they could win just about
anywhere. There are three ridings in particular where I believe the
Liberals may not win:</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Cape St. Francis</b></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
This riding stands out in particular, because the Liberals have never
won this riding located just north of St. John's. The St. John's area
has long been the least friendly to Liberals, so if there is anywhere
they will not win, it will be in historically Tory seats like this
one. The Liberals did almost win the riding in 1996, in an election
where they won 55% of the province-wide popular vote. PC MHA Jack
Byrne held it by just 141 votes in that election. There was no NDP
candidate however, and the NDP has proven to be competitive in this
riding in subsequent elections. The NDP did quite well here in the
2011 election, winning 38% of the vote (while the Liberals won just
3%). How strongly the NDP does in Cape St. Francis will determine
whether or not the Tories will be able to hold it. Their candidate in
2011, Geoff Gallant is now running for the Liberals, but they still
have a strong candidate in defence attorney Mark Gruchy. If Gruchy
can take enough votes away from Gallant, the Tories should manage to
hold this seat. Tory fortunes are pinned on Kevin Parsons, who has
held the seat since 2008, was the mayor of Flatrock before that, and
is the son Kevin Parsons, Sr. who held the seat from 1986 to 1993.
</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Ferryland</b>
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
This riding, located
just south of St. John's is also a Tory stronghold, having voted for
the Progressive Conservatives in every election since 1971. And
unlike Cape St. Francis, the Liberals have not come close here in
recent memory. In 2007, Tory Keith Hutchings won 84% of the vote in
this riding, and was re-elected in 2011 with 72% of the vote. The NDP
candidate won 24% of the vote here in 2011, while the Liberal
candidate won just 4%. Hutchings, who is the province's Minister of
Municipal and Intergovernmental Affairs is running for re-election.
The Liberals are still aiming to pick this seat up though; their
candidate, Jeff Marshall has been “campaigning for months”
according to the CBC.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>St. John's
East-Quidi Vidi</b></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
This is the riding that former NDP leader Lorraine Michael has chosen
to run in. It contains parts of two ridings that went NDP in 2011,
St. John's East and Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi. Michael has held Signal
Hill-Quidi Vidi since 2006, and the NDP have held on to this area
since 1990, avoiding landslide elections that elected both Liberals
and Tories. If there's one seat the NDP should keep in this election,
it will be this one. Michael led the NDP to an historic five-seat
victory in 2011, but her leadership of the party was divisive, and
two of her MHAs defected to the Liberals. She resigned as leader, but
will be running again in this seat. She may not be popular among many
members of her party, but she remains popular in her riding.
</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Others?</b></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Those are the ridings I believe will not go Liberal in today's
election. However, there are other ridings either the PCs and NDP
could win. Two historical Tory seats that could buck the trend are
Baie Verte-Green Bay (Tory held since 1993) and Bonavista (also Tory
held since 1993). Their chances are increased by the fact that they
have incumbents running for re-election in both seats. Conception Bay
East-Bell Island is another Tory-victory possibility. While the
Liberals last won the riding in 1999, they only won 4% of the vote
there in 2011. The NDP candidate, Bill Kavanagh won 41% of the vote
in that election, and is trying again this time. The Liberals do have
a strong candidate in former Labrador MHA Danny Dumaresque. The
incumbent MHA, David Brazil, who is also the Minister of
Transportation and Works is running for re-election, and could come
up the middle to win the seat. There of course could be other seats
the Tories could win, based on the personal popularity of their
incumbents, but it's anyone's guess where those will be.
</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
For the NDP, their next best hope after St. John's East-Quidi Vidi is
St. John's Centre, where NDP MHA Gerry Rogers is running for
re-election. Other than Lorraine Michael, Rogers is the only other
MHA running for re-election for the New Democrats. When Rogers won
the seat in 2011, it was the first time ever that the party won the
riding. She won the seat with 54% of the vote, defeating the Tory
incumbent by over 500 votes. The Liberals only won 2% of the vote.
However in this election, her main competition will come from the
Liberal candidate, accountant Lynn Sullivan.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Other than the
Tories and the NDP, the best chance for an independent (there are no
other parties running) to win is former MP Rex Barnes, who is running
in Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans. He was a Progressive Conservative MP
for Gander—Grand Falls from 2002 to 2004, and served as mayor of
Grand Falls-Windsor from 2005 to 2009.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Abacus conducted
four riding level polls during the campaign for VOCM, including
polling the ridings of Premier Paul Davis, who is running in
Topsail-Paradise and NDP leader Earle McCurdy, who is running in St.
John's West. Abacus' poll showed Davis losing in his riding to
Liberal candidate (and Conception Bay South MHA) Rex Hillier 56-35.
Abacus also showed the Liberals ahead in St. John's West, with their
candidate, former MP Siobhan Coady leading McCurdy 57%-24%. If these
polls prove to be correct, then both the Tories and NDP could be
looking for new leaders fairly soon.</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<h4 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Forecast</b></h4>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-mDcMAyT7qKg/Vlx_SsTWWDI/AAAAAAAAC60/avYHHrJpVzw/s1600/NL%2B2015%2Bforecast%2B%2528seat%2Btotals%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-mDcMAyT7qKg/Vlx_SsTWWDI/AAAAAAAAC60/avYHHrJpVzw/s1600/NL%2B2015%2Bforecast%2B%2528seat%2Btotals%2529.png" /></a></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />Given all of this
information, my (mostly) qualitative seat forecast is that the
Liberals will win 37 of the 40 ridings in the province (the
legislature will be reduced to 40 seats from 48 following a
<a href="http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/11/newfoundland-and-labradors-new.html">redistribution this year</a>).
The Tories will win two seats, and the NDP should win just one. Due
to time constraints, I have not done a formal quantitative seat model
for this election, but I do not expect to get many seats wrong,
unless the polls are well off. In landslide elections, seat
predictions become much easier, as the question only comes down to
guessing which seats the winning party will not win.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
In this seat-by-seat
forecast, the riding names have been coloured based on how they voted
in 2011:</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Vui1AbvI9W4/Vlx_MGAHwOI/AAAAAAAAC6w/9FcH90cs1-k/s1600/NL%2B2015%2Bforecast.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Vui1AbvI9W4/Vlx_MGAHwOI/AAAAAAAAC6w/9FcH90cs1-k/s1600/NL%2B2015%2Bforecast.png" /></a></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
We shall see the
extent of the damage (both electorally, and to my forecast) after the
polls close at 8:00pm local time (6:30 Eastern). It likely won't be a
very long night.</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-68279847169841142642015-11-27T15:21:00.001-05:002015-11-27T15:21:51.653-05:00Northwest Territories election summary
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The Northwest
Territories held a general election for its territorial legislative
assembly on Monday, the 18<sup>th</sup> election since the formation
of the assembly in 1951. The NWT Assembly is non partisan, using the
“consensus government” model. The winning MLAs will come
together next month to elect a new a Premier from among them. Only
the Northwest Territories and Nunavut uses this system of government
in Canada.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Since the creation
of the office of Premier in 1980, no Premier has ever served in that
capacity for more than one term. The tradition in the NWT is to
choose a new Premier after every election. So, despite the fact that
Premier Bob McLeod was re-elected in his Yellowknife South riding
does not mean he will remain as Premier. It is more likely that the
new assembly will choose someone different to become Premier.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The consensus model
has been criticized as being somewhat undemocratic, as voters do not
get to directly vote for Premier. While this is technically true in
every other province and territory in Canada, the non-partisan nature
of the NWT Legislature means that voters have no influence in who
will become their Premier. MLAs choose the Premier behind closed
doors, in secret meetings, and do not divulge their votes to the
public. While there are no rules against members openly discussing
their votes (it is not after all a papal conclave), members who do
discuss details are often ostracized by their colleagues. The result
is that there is no accountability for their decisions, as voters
have no knowledge of which MLAs supported who for Premier, and cannot
punish (or reward) their representatives in the ballot box for their
actions.
<br /><br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-UDCbZPVK2jw/Vli6W6K9bKI/AAAAAAAAC6Q/HY32Qvp-S6E/s1600/NWT%2B2015%2Bkey%2Bmap.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="403" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-UDCbZPVK2jw/Vli6W6K9bKI/AAAAAAAAC6Q/HY32Qvp-S6E/s640/NWT%2B2015%2Bkey%2Bmap.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Northwest Territory's 19 ridings </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /><br />
</div>
<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Redistribution<br /><br /></b></h3>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Since the last
<a href="http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2011/10/northwest-territories-2011-election.html">election held in 2011</a>,
the boundaries of the NWT's 19 ridings have changed, following a
controversial redistribution process, which had to be settled in the
territorial supreme court. The size of the assembly was not changed,
and most of the territory's rural ridings were not effected, but the
boundaries in the territorial capital of Yellowknife were shifted
around a bit. The most major change was when the abolition of the Tu
Nedhe riding, the territory's least populous district, which
consisted of two Dene communities in the eastern part of the NWT. Tu
Nedhe was merged with part of the Weledeh riding, becoming “Tu
Nedhé-Wiilideh”. The new riding is still underpopulated, becoming
the second least populous riding in the NWT, after Deh Cho. The
remainder of the Weledeh riding became the riding Yellowknife North,
making it a strictly urban riding.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The controversy
surrounding the redistribution came as a result of maintaining the
imbalance of representation between Yellowknife and the rest of the
territory. The City of Yellowknife makes up nearly half (46%) of the
population of the NWT, but only 7 of the territory's 19 districts
(37%) are in the city. The redistribution process did not address the
imbalance, and as a result, every single Yellowknife district
continues to be over populated, with most districts being more than
20% larger than the territorial average.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<h3 style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Results<br /><br /></b></h3>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
In 2011, only one incumbent was defeated in the entire territory. In
this election however, there were eight defeated incumbents. Coupled
with three retiring MLAs, the election resulted in only eight
returning MLAs. While Premier McLeod was re-elected, the territory's
finance minister, Michael Miltenberger lost his seat of Thebacha
(Fort Smith), a riding he had held since 1995. Despite the large
turnover, the Assembly's most controversial incumbent, Michael Nadli
was narrowly re-elected in Deh Cho, despite have spent eight days in
prison during his term, after being convicted of assaulting his wife.
Interestingly, Nadli was the only candidate to defeat an incumbent in
2011.<br /><br />
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-c8II0482KOE/Vli652vf-2I/AAAAAAAAC6g/o_K_gtRZL9o/s1600/NWT-2015.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="606" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-c8II0482KOE/Vli652vf-2I/AAAAAAAAC6g/o_K_gtRZL9o/s640/NWT-2015.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Out of the 19 ridings, there was one district where no election was
held. In the riding of Monfwi, incumbent MLA Jackson Lafferty was
re-elected with no opposition. Only two women were elected (Julie
Green in Yellowknife Centre and Caroline Cochrane-Johnson in Range
Lake), both of whom had to defeat incumbents to get into the
legislature. This represents no change in the number of women elected
to the assembly, as one MLA (Wendy Bisaro) did not run for
re-election, while Jane Groenewegen was defeated in her Hay River
South district. Green's election makes her the first out lesbian to
be elected in the assembly's history.
<br /><br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/--O8leUPDpuE/Vli6lUgogFI/AAAAAAAAC6Y/St--lz2-1pU/s1600/NWT-2015%2Bturnout.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="582" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/--O8leUPDpuE/Vli6lUgogFI/AAAAAAAAC6Y/St--lz2-1pU/s640/NWT-2015%2Bturnout.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Turnout by riding in the 2015 election</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The overall turnout in the election was 44%, the lowest ever turnout
in the history of the NWT. Turnout was especially low in Yellowknife,
with most districts in the city seeing less than a third of voters
showing up. The lowest turnout in the election was in Kam Lake, a
suburban Yellowknife riding, which saw a turnout of just 25%. In
contrast, many of the rural ridings saw large turnouts. The northern
riding of Nunakput saw a turnout of 74%, while Tu Nedhé-Wiilideh saw
a turnout of 71%.</div>
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<br />
</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The election was originally intended to be held in October, but was
superseded by the October 19 federal election. According the
territory's fixed election date legislation, the NWT is to hold
elections on the first Monday in October every four years. However
with the next federal election scheduled for October 2019, it is
likely that the next NWT election will be held in November of 2019
unless the legislation is amended.
</div>
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<br />
</div>
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<br />
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<br />
</div>
Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-54189017275000200362015-11-18T14:51:00.001-05:002015-11-19T13:22:47.684-05:00Newfoundland and Labrador's new electoral map<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8dGfpy250TM/Vk4TTgHhb5I/AAAAAAAAC54/2q3d_M_IUt0/s1600/NL2011%2B%25282015%2Bboundaries%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="332" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8dGfpy250TM/Vk4TTgHhb5I/AAAAAAAAC54/2q3d_M_IUt0/s400/NL2011%2B%25282015%2Bboundaries%2529.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The results of the 2011 election on the new map</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: right;">
</div>
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</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Voters in
Newfoundland and Labrador will be heading to the polls on November
30<sup>th</sup> in the province's 19<sup>th</sup> election held since
joining confederation in 1949. This election will be held on a new
electoral map, as the size of the House of Assembly (the province's
legislature) has been reduced from 48 seats to 40. This will be the
first election since 1959 that the province will have this few seats.
</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Due to these
changes, I took the initiative to calculate the results of the last
provincial election in 2011 and transpose them on the new boundaries,
using the same process I had done for <a href="http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/08/new-brunswick-provincial-redistribution.html">New Brunswick's recent redistribution</a>.
Much like New Brunswick, Elections Newfoundland and Labrador did not
publicly release their own transposition numbers, unlike Elections
Canada and some other provincial elections agencies.
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_z4RmUQJkxg/VkzVvZdQuXI/AAAAAAAAC44/JcTnHCGmLgE/s1600/NL%2B2011.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_z4RmUQJkxg/VkzVvZdQuXI/AAAAAAAAC44/JcTnHCGmLgE/s400/NL%2B2011.png" width="393" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Actual results of the 2011 election</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><b>Background</b></i></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
New premier Paul
Davis was gung-ho in his plan to reduce the size of the legislature,
and was quick to do so after becoming leader. A boundary commission
was created, and new boundaries were drawn over the course of the
Spring, in order to give the province's election agency enough time
to be ready for the November 30 election. What is usually a long and
drawn out process that can take a couple of years (as we saw with the
last federal redistribution) was done in a few months.
</div>
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<br /></div>
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While the reduction
of government is consistent with conservative ideology (Davis is a
Tory), the move may backfire for his party. Recent polls have shown
the Tories could be wiped off the electoral map, a feat that is
easier to do with larger, more populated ridings. Smaller ridings are
more likely to overlap with pockets of opposition support, and are
therefore more likely to elect more opposition members. It is harder
for opposition members to get elected (especially in landslide
elections) with larger ridings, as areas of traditional opposition
support are more likely to be lumped in with non-opposition areas,
when the ridings grow in size. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PwPofGLIkiE/Vk3nmJgqt2I/AAAAAAAAC5c/Cl6Wtw3dEYA/s1600/NL%2Bredistribution%2Bvs.%2Bactual.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PwPofGLIkiE/Vk3nmJgqt2I/AAAAAAAAC5c/Cl6Wtw3dEYA/s1600/NL%2Bredistribution%2Bvs.%2Bactual.png" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
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<br /></div>
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This redistribution
process has already hurt one of those opposition parties, the NDP.
The NDP won five seats in the 2011 election, but would have only won
three seats on the new map. This is because in two of those ridings,
the boundaries were extended to encompass enough non-NDP areas to
have swung the seats to other parties. The Liberals were less hurt, as they would have won five seats on the new map, compared to the six seats they actually won in 2011. The Tories saw a bigger numerical drop, winning 32 seats on the new map, down from the 37 they actually won. Proportionally however, they were not hurt as bad, as the two other parties, and losing five seats is no big deal considering they still would have won a majority government on the new map. </div>
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<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1dA4HMXC9lo/Vk4TaNsUGYI/AAAAAAAAC58/IdUFXxk1vvY/s1600/NL%2B2015%2Btransposition.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1dA4HMXC9lo/Vk4TaNsUGYI/AAAAAAAAC58/IdUFXxk1vvY/s1600/NL%2B2015%2Btransposition.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Redistributed results of the 2011 election by riding</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
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<i><b>Regional
analysis </b></i>
</div>
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<br /></div>
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The St. John's area
loses one riding, with the resulting domino effect meaning the NDP
would only have won three seats in the city on the new map (down from
the four they actually won). This loss is due to the riding of St.
John's North (renamed to “Mount Scio”) gaining some heavily Tory
areas in the Paradise area. The PCs would have won the remaining 10
seats in the region. While the boundary shifts in Mount Scio gave the
Tories an extra seat, they would have lost one in the south end of
the city, with the merger of St. John's South and Kilbride into the
new riding of Waterford Valley. Another big shift in the city was in
the east end, where the two ridings of St. John's East and Signal
Hill-Quidi Vidi have re-oriented themselves into St. John's
East-Quidi Vidi and Virginia Waters-Pleasantville. Both seats went
NDP in 2011.
</div>
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<br /></div>
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The rest of the
Avalon Peninsula also loses one seat. This seat loss is on the west
side of Conception Bay, where the riding of Carbonear-Harbour Grace
is being split up. The Carbonear half is going to the new riding of
Carbonear-Trinity-Bay de Verde (formed from the former riding of
Trinity-Bay de Verde), while the Harbour Grace half has joined the
new riding of Harbour Grace-Port de Grave (formed from the old riding
of Port de Grave). All the ridings in this region voted PC in 2011,
meaning a net loss of one seat for the Tories.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Eastern Newfoundland
goes from having six seats to just four, following the
redistribution. One seat (Burin-Placentia West) was removed from the
Burin Peninsula, with a part going to the new riding of Burin-Grand
Bank and a part going to the new riding of Placentia West-Bellevue.
The other seat loss comes from the Bonavista Bay area, which will see
the old ridings of Terra Nova and Trinity North be merged together
forming a new Terra Nova riding. This seat loss hurts the Tories the
most, as all six ridings voted PC in 2011.
</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Central Newfoundland
also loses two seats. The former riding of “The Isles of Notre
Dame” will see the Twillingate area join the new riding of
Lewisporte-Twillingate while Fogo Island joins the new riding of Fogo
Island-Cape Freels. Meanwhile, the riding of Grand
Falls-Windsor-Green Bay South will split up with the Grand
Falls-Windsor area of that riding being absorbed by the riding of
Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans while the Green Bay South area will join
the new redundantly named riding of Baie Verte-Green Bay. All nine
ridings in the region voted PC in 2011, so the seat reduction is a
net loss of two ridings for the party.
</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Western Newfoundland
also loses two seats, with the Humber area losing both ridings. The
new riding of Humber-Grose Morne was created as a merger of St. Barbe
and Humber Valley while Humber East has been fragmented into the new riding of Corner Brook (formed from Humber West), St. George's-Humber (formed from St. George's-Stephenville East) and Humber-Bay of Islands (formed from Bay of Islands) Both the NDP and the Liberals were the losers in this region. The addition of part of Humber East into the new Humber-Bay of Islands would have made that riding go PC in 2011, when its predecessor riding of Bay of Islands went Liberal. Meanwhile, the northern riding of
The Straits-White Bay North, which went NDP in 2011, has been increased
in size, taking in a Liberal part of St. Barbe,. This boundary
change would have been enough to shift the riding to the Liberals,
and to compensate for the merger of the two Liberal ridings of St.
Barbe and Humber Valley. While the new map gives would have given the PCs the new Humber-Bay of Islands riding, the abolition of the Humber East riding gives them a net gain of 0 seats in the region.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The redistribution
process came with the promise that Labrador would retain its four
seats in the House of Assembly. As such, the region saw no boundary
changes, despite two of the ridings (Torngat Mountains and
Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair) being extremely underpopulated. In 2011,
the Liberals won those two seats, while the Tories won the other two
(Lake Melville and Labrador West).
</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RiQlh_kzmSM/VkzWMxiZxyI/AAAAAAAAC5I/T0qMtlTriVc/s1600/NL%2B2015%2Bkey%2Bmap.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RiQlh_kzmSM/VkzWMxiZxyI/AAAAAAAAC5I/T0qMtlTriVc/s640/NL%2B2015%2Bkey%2Bmap.png" width="589" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Newfoundland and Labrador's new election map (click to enlarge) </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Of course, these
numbers only show the results of the 2011 election on the new
boundaries, an election which saw the Progressive Conservatives win a
large majority of seats, and a majority of the popular vote. With the
Liberals heading for what may be an historic landslide victory, this
map will look very different come November 30.</div>
<div style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
<i>Note: An earlier version of this blogpost indicated the the riding of Humber-Bay of Islands would have gone Liberal in 2011, however this was based on an error in the data. It has since been corrected.</i></div>
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<br /></div>
Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.com5