Thursday, August 11, 2011

Ontario election 2011 prediction (August 11)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith
Another Ontario poll has been released, and that means an update to my projection. Ipsos-Reid released a poll yesterday that was taken over the August long weekend. It shows very different numbers from what we saw earlier in the Summer.

The Liberals are up 7 points from the previous Ipsos-Reid poll taken in June, and are now at 36%. They are in a statistical tie with the Tories who are at 38%, down four points. The NDP is at 23%, up 1% from the last Ipsos-Reid poll, but down 1% from the last Forum Research poll taken a few days prior. The Greens are down to just 3% from 5%.

This means a lot has changed in my projection. Most of the ridings I have projected a large Liberal increase in the vote, mostly at the expense of the Greens. Included in my projection this time around will be the projected winning candidate.


Riding Lib PC NDP Grn Projected winning candidate
Ajax—Pickering 45 39 12 4 Joe Dickson
Algoma—Manitoulin
36
19 42 3 Mike Mantha
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale
36
44
16
4 Donna Skelly
Barrie
27
50
18
5 Rod Jackson
Beaches—East York
21
22
50 7 Michael Prue
Bramalea—Gore—Malton 42
30
26
2 Kuldip Kular
Brampton West 43
41
14
2 Vic Dhillon
Brampton—Springdale 43
37
17
3 Linda Jeffrey
Brant 43
35
20
2 Dave Levac
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
26
50
15
9 Bill Walker
Burlington
31
49
17
3 Jane McKenna
Cambridge
27
48
22
3 Rob Leone
Carleton—Mississippi Mills
35
49
12
3 Jack MacLaren
Chatham-Kent—Essex
29
46
22
3 Rick Nicholls
Davenport
38
11
48 3 Jonah Schein
Don Valley East 44
32
22
2 Michael Coteau
Don Valley West 47
41
9
3 Kathleen Wynne
Dufferin—Caledon
25
52
10
13 Sylvia Jones
Durham
28
50
18
4 John O'Toole
Eglinton—Lawrence 49
37
12
2 Mike Colle
Elgin—Middlesex—London
27
50
21
2 Jeff Yurek
Essex
25
41
32
2 Dave Brister
Etobicoke Centre 48
38
12
2 Donna Cansfield
Etobicoke North 50
27
21
2 Shafiq Qaadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore 42
37
17
4 Laurel Broten
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell 48
37
12
3 Grant Crack
Guelph 45
31
15
8 Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk
23
62
13
2 Toby Barrett
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
36
48
12
4 Laurie Scott
Halton
35
49
14
2 Ted Chudleigh
Hamilton Centre
25
20
50 5 Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
27
31
40 2 Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain
33
27
38 2 Monique Taylor
Huron—Bruce 40
38
20
2 Carol Mitchell
Kenora—Rainy River
30
33
36 2 TBD
Kingston and the Islands 44
32
21
3 John Gerretsen
Kitchener Centre 43
34
20
3 John Milloy
Kitchener—Conestoga
38
42
17
3 Michael Harris
Kitchener—Waterloo
31
47
18
4 Elizabeth Witmer
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
40
41
17
2 Monte McNaughton
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington
33
45
18
4 Randy Hiller
Leeds—Grenville
25
58
13
4 Steve Clark
London North Centre 42
31
22
5 Deb Matthews
London West 47
34
17
2 Chris Bentley
London—Fanshawe 34
31
33
2 Khalil Ramal
Markham—Unionville 48
33
17
2 Michael Chan
Mississauga East—Cooksville 48
36
15
1 Dipika Damerla
Mississauga South 45
43
10
2 Charles Sousa
Mississauga—Brampton South 45
39
15
1 Amrit Mangat
Mississauga—Erindale 43
41
14
2 Harinder Takhar
Mississauga—Streetsville 46
38
13
3 Bob Delaney
Nepean—Carleton
32
52
13
3 Lisa MacLeod
Newmarket—Aurora
35
49
12
4 Frank Klees
Niagara Falls 43
38
16
3 Kim Craitor
Niagara West—Glanbrook
22
58
17
3 Tim Hudak
Nickel Belt
27
20
51 2 France Gelinas
Nipissing
36
47
15
2 Victor Fedeli
Northumberland—Quinte West 40
39
18
3 Lou Rinaldi
Oak Ridges—Markham
39
45
14
2 Farid Wassef
Oakville 46
40
11
3 Kevin Flynn
Oshawa
18
45
35
2 Jerry Ouellette
Ottawa Centre
33
22
41 4 Anil Naidoo
Ottawa South 48
33
16
3 Dalton McGuinty
Ottawa West—Nepean 42
39
16
3 Bob Chiarelli
Ottawa—Orleans 47
40
11
2 Phil McNeely
Ottawa—Vanier 46
26
24
4 Madeleine Meilleur
Oxford
25
54
18
3 Ernie Hardeman
Parkdale—High Park
27
15
53 4 Cheri DiNovo
Parry Sound—Muskoka
20
52
20
8 Norm Miller
Perth—Wellington 41
39
16
4 John Wilkinson
Peterborough 42
33
22
3 Jeff Leal
Pickering—Scarborough East 46
35
16
3 Tracey MacCharles
Prince Edward—Hastings
38
41
19
2 Todd Smith
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
20
67
11
2 John Yakabuski
Richmond Hill 44
39
14
3 Reza Moridi
St. Catharines 42
37
18
3 Jim Bradley
St. Paul's 45
31
19
5 Eric Hoskins
Sarnia—Lambton
24
48
26
2 Bob Bailey
Sault Ste. Marie 52
20
27
1 David Orazietti
Scarborough Centre 43
31
24
2 Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest 40
26
31
3 Lorenzo Berardinetti
Scarborough—Agincourt 51
32
16
1 Soo Wong
Scarborough—Guildwood 41
33
25
1 Margarett Best
Scarborough—Rouge River 56
22
21
1 Bas Balkissoon
Simcoe North
25
55
15
5 Garfield Dunlop
Simcoe—Grey
23
56
13
8 Jim Wilson
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
29
55
15
1 Jim McDonell
Sudbury 50
17
31
2 Rick Bartolucci
Thornhill
35
54
9
2 Peter Shurman
Thunder Bay—Atikokan
33
25
41 1 Mary Kozorys
Thunder Bay—Superior North 42
14
42 2 Michael Gravelle or Steve Mantis
Timikaming—Cochrane
34
20
45 1 John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay
29
25
45 1 Gilles Bisson
Toronto Centre 46
22
27
5 Glen Murray
Toronto—Danforth
27
13
53 7 Peter Tabuns
Trinity—Spadina
33
16
47 4 Rosario Marchese
Vaughan 53
36
10
1 Greg Sorbara
Welland
25
34
39 2 Cindy Forster
Wellington—Halton Hills
27
58
10
5 Ted Arnott
Whitby—Oshawa
26
51
19
4 Christine Elliott
Willowdale 45
38
14
3 David Zimmer
Windsor West
25
26
48 2 Helmi Charif
Windsor—Tecumseh 43
26
29
2 Dwight Duncan
York Centre 43
43
13
1 Monte Kwinter or Michael Mostyn
York South—Weston
40
17
41 2 Paul Ferreira
York West 53
18
28
1 Mario Sergio
York—Simcoe
25
55
16
4 Julia Munro



Conclusion
Despite still trailing in the popular vote, the Liberals would win a minority government in my current projection. This is a huge turnaround from a month ago. The reason for this is because my projection shows the Liberals winning more seats by small margins than the Tories at this point in time. The Tories have a lot of their vote "wasted" in rural ridings, where they are projected to rack up massive majorities, while the Liberals are still only projected to win a majority of the vote in a handful of seats.

The Liberals have secured this projected lead by retaking many of the ridings they were projected to lose in the "905 belt", and are now projected to shutout the Tories in Mississauga, Brampton and Toronto (except for one tie in York Centre). Meanwhile, the Liberals are now projected to win many of their rural seats- at least in ridings where they still have incumbents. Most of those seats are still toss ups, however.

Presently, the Liberal's minimum seat total (42) is still below the Tory maximum (49), meaning that a Tory minority government is still possible. The Liberal maximum is 55, which also happens to be one more seat  than what is needed to win a majority government. The NDP slight decline in this poll (compared to the Forum Research poll) means a projected decrease in two seats from my last projection.The NDP maximum is 20, down 1 from last time.

Party Projected seat totals (toss ups included in table) Change from last projection Projected seat totals (toss ups excluded from table)
42 +15 50
35 -7 37

16 -2 18
Toss ups* 14 -6 2 (ties) 

*Toss ups indicate projections closer than 3%.

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