Ontario election 2011 prediction (August 16)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith

It's time for another Ontario projection, because there has been yet another provincial poll to be released for the upcoming provincial election. Nanos Research has released their first provincial poll since one taken in May, shortly after the federal election. This poll, which was just taken last week confirms the Liberal surge we saw in the Ipsos-Reid poll which I analyzed in my last projection. One thing that is surprising is an apparent collapse in the NDP vote.

The Nanos numbers are as follows:

Prog. Cons.: 42% (+1 from May)
Liberals: 38% (+4)
NDP: 16% (-3)
Greens: 3% (-3)

Additionally, the NDP is 7% lower than the Ipsos-Reid poll taken just a week before. So, what's going on? Could it be the Turmel affair is affecting provincial politics? Maybe, but Nanos has had a reputation of polling the NDP lower than other pollsters, as we saw in the early stages of the federal election. They were the last polling firm to catch the "orange wave", although their final polling numbers turned out to be quite accurate.

In September, my projection will be based more on an average of multiple polls. But for now, since polls are coming in slowly, I have been doing a separate projection for each poll to come out, regardless of the polling firm. That means large swings have meant large projection changes in my model.

Here are my current seat by seat projections based on this recent Nanos poll:

Riding	Lib	PC	NDP	Grn	Winning candidate
Ajax—Pickering	46	43	7	4	Joe Dickson
Algoma—Manitoulin	38	22	35	3	Mike Brown
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	37	47	12	4	Donna Skelly
Barrie	29	55	11	5	Rod Jackson
Beaches—East York	25	23	44	8	Michael Prue
Bramalea—Gore—Malton	44	35	19	2	Kuldip Kular
Brampton West	44	44	10	2	Vic Dhillon or Ben Shenouda
Brampton—Springdale	45	42	10	3	Linda Jeffrey
Brant	45	40	13	2	Dave Levac
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	28	54	9	9	Bill Walkerl
Burlington	33	54	10	3	Jane McKenna
Cambridge	29	53	15	3	Rob Leone
Carleton—Mississippi Mills	37	55	5	3	Jack MacLaren
Chatham-Kent—Essex	31	51	15	3	Rick Nicholls
Davenport	40	12	45	3	Jonah Schein
Don Valley East	46	37	15	2	Michael Coteau
Don Valley West	48	42	6	4	Kathleen Wynne
Dufferin—Caledon	25	54	8	13	Sylvia Jones
Durham	30	55	11	4	John O'Toole
Eglinton—Lawrence	50	39	9	2	Mike Colle
Elgin—Middlesex—London	29	55	14	2	Jeff Yurek
Essex	27	46	25	2	Dave Brister
Etobicoke Centre	50	41	7	2	Donna Cansfield
Etobicoke North	51	30	17	2	Shafiq Qaadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore	44	42	10	4	Laurel Broten
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	50	42	5	3	Grant Crack
Guelph	46	33	12	9	Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk	24	65	9	2	Toby Barrett
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	36	49	11	4	Laurie Scott
Halton	37	54	7	2	Ted Chudleigh
Hamilton Centre	25	23	47	5	Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	29	34	35	2	Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain	33	32	33	2	Sophia Aggelonitis or Monique Taylor
Huron—Bruce	42	43	13	2	Lisa Thompson
Kenora—Rainy River	32	38	29	2	TBD
Kingston and the Islands	44	33	20	3	John Gerretsen
Kitchener Centre	43	37	16	3	John Milloy
Kitchener—Conestoga	38	47	12	3	Michael Harris
Kitchener—Waterloo	31	51	14	4	Elizabeth Witmer
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex	42	46	10	2	Monte McNaughton
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	35	50	11	4	Randy Hillier
Leeds—Grenville	27	61	8	4	Steve Clark
London North Centre	44	35	16	5	Deb Matthews
London West	49	39	10	2	Chris Bentley
London—Fanshawe	36	32	30	2	Khalil Ramal
Markham—Unionville	50	38	10	2	Michael Chan
Mississauga East—Cooksville	50	41	8	1	Dipika Damerla
Mississauga South	45	45	8	2	Charles Sousa or Geoff Janoscik
Mississauga—Brampton South	46	43	10	1	Armit Mangat
Mississauga—Erindale	44	43	10	2	Harinder Takhar
Mississauga—Streetsville	47	41	9	3	Bob Delaney
Nepean—Carleton	33	54	8	5	Lisa MacLeod
Newmarket—Aurora	37	53	6	4	Frank Klees
Niagara Falls	45	43	9	3	Kim Craitor
Niagara West—Glanbrook	24	63	10	3	Tim Hudak
Nickel Belt	28	24	46	2	France Gelinas
Nipissing	37	49	12	2	Victor Fedeli
Northumberland—Quinte West	42	44	11	3	Rob Milligan
Oak Ridges—Markham	41	50	7	2	Farid Wassef
Oakville	46	45	6	3	Kevin Flynn
Oshawa	20	50	28	2	Jerry Ouellette
Ottawa Centre	34	23	37	6	Anil Naidoo
Ottawa South	49	38	9	4	Dalton McGuinty
Ottawa West—Nepean	44	44	9	3	Bob Chiarelli or Randall Denley
Ottawa—Orleans	49	44	5	2	Phil McNeely
Ottawa—Vanier	47	26	22	5	Madeleine Meilleur
Oxford	27	59	11	3	Ernie Hardeman
Parkdale—High Park	28	16	50	5	Cheri DiNovo
Parry Sound—Muskoka	22	57	13	8	Norm Miller
Perth—Wellington	43	44	9	4	Randy Pettapiece
Peterborough	44	38	15	3	Jeff Leal
Pickering—Scarborough East	47	38	12	3	Tracey MacCharles
Prince Edward—Hastings	40	46	12	2	Todd Smith
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	21	70	7	2	John Yakabuski
Richmond Hill	45	43	9	3	Reza Moridi
St. Catharines	43	39	15	3	Jim Bradley
St. Paul's	46	32	16	6	Eric Hoskins
Sarnia—Lambton	26	53	21	2	Bob Bailey
Sault Ste. Marie	54	25	20	1	David Orazietti
Scarborough Centre	45	36	18	2	Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest	42	31	24	3	Lorenzo Berardinetti
Scarborough—Agincourt	53	32	14	1	Soo Wong
Scarborough—Guildwood	42	34	22	2	Margarett Best
Scarborough—Rouge River	58	27	14	1	Bas Balkissoon
Simcoe North	27	60	8	5	Garfield Dunlop
Simcoe—Grey	24	60	8	8	Jim Wilson
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	31	60	8	1	Jim McDonnell
Sudbury	52	22	24	2	Rick Bartolucci
Thornhill	36	57	5	2	Peter Shurman
Thunder Bay—Atikokan	33	30	36	1	Mary Kozorys
Thunder Bay—Superior North	44	19	35	2	Michael Gravelle
Timikaming—Cochrane	36	25	38	1	John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay	30	29	40	1	Gilles Bisson
Toronto Centre	47	23	24	6	Glen Murray
Toronto—Danforth	29	14	50	7	Peter Tabuns
Trinity—Spadina	35	17	44	5	Rosario Marchese
Vaughan	53	37	9	1	Greg Sorbara
Welland	27	39	32	2	Domenic Ursini
Wellington—Halton Hills	27	60	8	5	Ted Arnott
Whitby—Oshawa	28	56	12	4	Christine Elliott
Willowdale	46	43	8	3	David Zimmer
Windsor West	27	31	41	2	Helmi Charif
Windsor—Tecumseh	45	31	22	2	Dwight Duncan
York Centre	44	45	10	1	Michael Mostyn
York South—Weston	40	18	40	2	Paul Ferreira or Laura Albanese
York West	53	19	27	1	Mario Sergio
York—Simcoe	27	60	9	4	Julia Munro

Conclusion
Even though the Liberals are behind the Tories by 4 points, they are still virtually tied with the Tories in terms of seat totals in my projection. This means a minority government of some sort, despite the NDP losing a lot of projected seats. However, both the Tories and the Liberals could win a majority government if they win all of their toss up seats.

Party	Projected seat totals (toss ups included in table)	Change from last projection	Projected seat totals (toss ups excluded from table)
	39	+4	43
	37	-5	46
	9	-7	13
Toss ups*	22	+8	5 (ties)

*Toss ups indicate projections closer than 3%.