Ontario election 2011 prediction (early August edition)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith.

When I got back from my cottage trip yesterday, I found out that there was a new poll put out by Forum Research for the Ontario election. So, that means another projection for the election. I will continue my Toronto series on another date.

The poll was very interesting. It saw the Tories take a bit of a hit, and they are down to 38% from 41% from the last Forum poll. This may be attributed to Hudak's controversy surrounding abortion. The Liberals gained two points, and are now up to 28%, while the NDP also gained 2 points up to 24%. The Greens were down one to 7%.

From now on, my projections will also come with projected percentages as well. This will also be shown on the map, with darker shades indicating a higher projected vote total for the winning party. Gray will still mean a toss up, indicating the riding's leading party is within 3 percentage points from the next party.

This is my first attempt at making percentage projections. I have looked at each riding individually and tried to figure out what its voters might do in the upcoming election. For this, I looked at the riding history, and tried to come to a conclusion as to why certain parties did as well they did, or as poor as they did compared to other years. For certain ridings, I assumed a uniform swing, because I felt its historical voting trends follow the provincial voting trends. For other ridings, I looked at the results of the recent federal election and adjusted the results to reflect the most recent poll. And for other ridings, I could only make estimates, again using past election data. It all depended on the charactar of the riding.

Of course, there is bound to be some oversights on my part. If you think I have a riding wrong, please let me know. I want to get this as right as possible. The key to making correct projections is not all about the math. Rather, it's about the local conditions. That's why I will be looking at qualitative data just as much as I will be looking at quantitative.

Alas, here is how I see things:

Riding	Lib	PC	NDP	Grn
Ajax—Pickering	42	39	13	6
Algoma—Manitoulin	29	24	43	4
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	30	45	17	8
Barrie	21	51	19	9
Beaches—East York	16	22	51	11
Bramalea—Gore—Malton	36	31	27	6
Brampton West	37	41	15	7
Brampton—Springdale	37	39	18	6
Brant	36	36	21	6
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	19	52	16	13
Burlington	24	50	18	8
Cambridge	20	48	24	8
Carleton—Mississippi Mills	29	51	13	7
Chatham-Kent—Essex	23	48	24	5
Davenport	31	11	52	6
Don Valley East	38	33	23	6
Don Valley West	45	41	9	7
Dufferin—Caledon	18	53	11	18
Durham	22	51	19	8
Eglinton—Lawrence	42	42	10	6
Elgin—Middlesex—London	21	51	22	6
Essex	19	43	34	4
Etobicoke Centre	44	38	13	5
Etobicoke North	47	27	22	4
Etobicoke—Lakeshore	38	37	18	7
Glengarry—Prescott--Russell	45	37	13	5
Guelph	37	28	15	18
Haldimand—Norfolk	18	64	15	3
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	31	50	13	6
Halton	28	50	15	7
Hamilton Centre	21	20	51	9
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	21	32	42	5
Hamilton Mountain	30	27	39	4
Huron—Bruce	34	39	21	6
Kenora—Rainy River	23	36	39	2
Kingston and the Islands	40	32	21	7
Kitchener Centre	39	34	20	7
Kitchener—Conestoga	34	42	18	6
Kitchener—Waterloo	28	46	18	8
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex	33	42	18	7
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	30	45	19	6
Leeds—Grenville	19	60	15	6
London North Centre	38	29	23	10
London West	39	34	18	9
London—Fanshawe	26	28	31	5
Markham—Unionville	42	34	20	4
Mississauga East—Cooksville	41	37	17	5
Mississauga South	40	43	11	6
Mississauga—Brampton South	39	40	16	5
Mississauga—Erindale	37	42	15	6
Mississauga—Streetsville	40	38	14	6
Nepean—Carleton	26	53	14	7
Newmarket—Aurora	29	50	13	8
Niagara Falls	35	38	17	10
Niagara West—Glanbrook	16	59	19	6
Nickel Belt	24	21	52	3
Nipissing	34	47	16	3
Northumberland—Quinte West	33	39	19	9
Oak Ridges—Markham	33	46	15	6
Oakville	40	41	12	7
Oshawa	10	45	36	6
Ottawa Centre	28	22	42	8
Ottawa South	44	32	17	7
Ottawa West—Nepean	38	40	17	5
Ottawa—Orleans	42	40	12	6
Ottawa—Vanier	41	26	25	8
Oxford	18	55	19	8
Parkdale—High Park	23	15	54	8
Parry Sound—Muskoka	14	53	22	11
Perth—Wellington	39	40	14	7
Peterborough	35	33	24	8
Pickering—Scarborough East	41	35	17	7
Prince Edward—Hastings	32	42	21	5
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	17	68	12	3
Richmond Hill	39	39	15	7
St. Catharines	37	38	19	6
St. Paul's	44	30	20	6
Sarnia—Lambton	18	49	28	5
Sault Ste. Marie	46	21	30	3
Scarborough Centre	37	32	27	4
Scarborough Southwest	34	26	33	7
Scarborough—Agincourt	46	33	18	3
Scarborough—Guildwood	39	32	25	4
Scarborough—Rouge River	51	23	23	3
Simcoe North	19	56	16	9
Simcoe—Grey	17	57	14	12
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	23	56	16	5
Sudbury	45	17	34	4
Thornhill	30	56	10	4
Thunder Bay—Atikokan	28	25	44	3
Thunder Bay—Superior North	36	15	44	5
Timikaming—Cochrane	29	21	48	2
Timmins—James Bay	24	26	48	2
Toronto Centre	43	22	27	8
Toronto—Danforth	24	13	53	10
Trinity—Spadina	26	16	48	10
Vaughan	48	36	11	5
Welland	18	35	41	6
Wellington—Halton Hills	21	59	11	9
Whitby—Oshawa	20	52	20	8
Willowdale	41	38	15	6
Windsor West	18	26	51	5
Windsor—Tecumseh	36	27	31	6
York Centre	37	44	14	5
York South—Weston	35	17	42	6
York West	51	17	28	4
York—Simcoe	18	55	17	10

Conclusion
These numbers give us a Tory minority.  Just like in the federal election, the provincial election will see much of the electoral fighting happening in the Greater Toronto Area. This is the area that I have made the most projection changes in. 11 of the 20 ridings that are too close to call are in the GTA.

While the Tories are looking at a minority right now, they could still potentially win up to 61 seats, if they win all of the toss ups. The maximum number of seats the Liberals can win at this point is 46, which is still shy of a majority. The NDP is looking at a maximum of 21 seats, which would be the highest since they formed government in 1990.

Party	Projected seat totals (toss ups included in table)	Change from last projection	Projected seat totals (toss ups excluded from table)
PC	42	-14	50
Liberal	27	(+9)	34
NDP	18	n/c	20
Toss ups	20	(+5)	3 (ties)