Saskatchewan 2011 election prediction (August edition)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith

There has finally been a poll released in Saskatchewan for their provincial election which will be held in November. My last projection was based on a poll from last November. Insightrix Research released a poll yesterday for the first time since April 2010. The poll conducted in November was by Sigma. Anyways, not much has changed since the poll in November, the right wing Saskatchewan Party still holds a massive lead over the NDP:

Saskatchewan Party: 58%
New Democratic Party: 31%
Green Party: 5%
Liberal Party: 4%

Yes, that's right. The Liberals are behind the Green Party, perhaps due to their falling to third party status in the Canadian House of Commons.These results are not much different from November, where the Saskatchewan Party is up one point, the NDP up 2 points, the Greens are even and the Liberals are down 4 points.

Just like for Ontario, I hope to do riding by riding projections for the other provinces holding elections this fall. They will be less accurate, as my local knowledge for other provinces is limited, and there is less discussion out there about other provincial races. However, I will try and do my best. Once again, comments would be appreciated.

Riding	SP	NDP	Lib	Grn	Projected winning candidate
Arm River-Watrous	65	23	7	5	Greg Brkich
Athabasca	39	53	2	6	Buckley Belanger
Batoche	65	29	3	4	Delbert Kirsch
Biggar	64	28	2	6	Randy Weekes
Cannington	82	13	4	1	Dan D'Autremont
Canora-Pelly	71	24	1	4	Ken Krawetz
Carrot River Valley	69	27	2	2	Fred Bradshaw
Cumberland	40	48	3	9	Doyle Vermette
Cut Knife-Turtleford	69	25	2	4	Larry Doke
Cypress Hills	81	12	2	5	Wayne Elhard
Estevan	73	12	10	5	Doreen Eagles
Humboldt	65	22	7	6	Donna Harpauer
Indian Head-Milestone	71	19	4	6	Don McMorris
Kelvington-Wadena	77	17	1	5	June Draude
Kindersley	71	19	4	6	Bill Boyd
Last Mountain-Touchwood	67	25	3	5	Glen Hart
Lloydminster	68	31	1	1	Ted McMillan
Martensville	80	13	2	5	Nancy Heppner
Meadow Lake	52	46	1	1	Jeremy Harrison
Melfort	72	24	3	1	Kevin Phillips
Melville-Saltcoats	66	31	2	1	Bob Bjornerud
Moose Jaw North	53	39	4	4	Warren Michelson
Moose Jaw Wakamow	43	47	5	5	Deb Higgins
Moosomin	79	15	5	1	Don Toth
Prince Albert Carlton	53	41	2	4	Darryl Hickie
Prince Albert Northcote	42	49	5	4	Darcy Furber
Regina Coronation Park	39	50	6	5	Jaime Garcia
Regina Dewdney	47	40	10	5	Gene Makowksy
Regina Douglas Park	38	48	7	7	Dwain Lingenfelter
Regina Elphinstone-Centre	27	59	6	8	Warren McCall
Regina Lakeview	40	42	11	7	John Nilson
Regina Northeast	48	43	4	5	Kevin Doherty
Regina Qu'Appelle Valley	50	35	11	4	Laura Ross
Regina Rosemont	43	47	4	6	Trent Wotherspoon
Regina South	51	35	8	6	Bill Hutchinson
Regina Walsh Acres	37	54	3	6	Sandra Morin
Regina Wascana Plains	60	26	9	5	Christine Tell
Rosetown-Elrose	77	14	3	6	Jim Reiter
Rosthern-Shellbrook	61	33	2	4	Scott Moe
Saskatchewan Rivers	62	35	2	1	Nadine Wilson
Saskatoon Centre	38	53	4	5	David Forbes
Saskatoon Eastview	49	43	3	5	Corey Tochor
Saskatoon Fairview	42	48	5	5	Andy Iwanchuk
Saskatoon Greystone	47	33	15	5	Rob Norris
Saskatoon Massey Place	43	50	3	4	Cam Broten
Saskatoon Meewasin	53	40	4	5	Roger Parent
Saskatoon Northwest	61	32	2	5	Gordon Wyant
Saskatoon Nutana	41	46	6	7	Catherine Sproule
Saskatoon Riversdale	39	54	2	5	Danielle Chartier
Saskatoon Silver Springs	70	21	4	5	Ken Cheveldayoff
Saskatoon Southeast	66	24	5	5	Don Morgan
Saskatoon Sutherland	52	37	5	6	Paul Merriman
Swift Current	78	16	2	4	Brad Wall
The Battlefords	46	40	10	4	Herb Cox
Thunder Creek	75	17	3	5	Lyle Stewart
Weyburn-Big Muddy	68	22	5	5	Dustin Duncan
Wood River	79	11	5	5	Yogi Huyghebaert
Yorkton	66	32	1	1	Greg Ottenbreit

Conclusion
Very little has changed since my last projection. The number crunching does reveal however that there are very few close races in the province. Only four are currently projected to be within 5% of each other (indicated as toss ups on the map). My projection has eliminated five toss up seats, and added one. This gives the NDP a net gain of three projected seats from my last projection, and the Saskatchewan Party receives a net gain of one.

Overall, the Saskatchewan Party is still projected to win a massive majority government, gaining a maximum of 8 seats from the NDP. The NDP's best case scenario at the moment is 16 seats, still four less than they currently hold.

Party	Projected seat totals (toss ups included in table)	Change from last projection	Projected seat totals (toss ups excluded from table)
Sask Party	42	+1	43
NDP	12	+3	15
Toss ups*	4	-4

*Toss ups indicate projections closer than 5%.