British Columbia provincial swing and trend maps

The BC provincial election will be held in one week, and with that is time for some more maps in an effort to analyze British Columbia politics. Today’s post will take a look at two maps comparing the last two provincial elections (2005 and 2009). One map shows the swing between the two elections and the other shows the trend between the two elections. It is my hope that these maps will be helpful in determining how British Columbians will vote next Tuesday, and perhaps explain some of the surprises that could be in store.

Swing map (2005-2009)

The first map shows the swing between 2005 and 2009. As I explained in my last post, the swing is a calculation that shows the average gain of one party vs. the loss of the other party. Because BC is for the most part a two-party province (NDP and Liberals), I have made the swing calculation across all provinces as between those two parties. The overall swing between the two elections was miniscule- just 0.3% towards the NDP. This has meant that the map is all over the place, with 44 ridings having swung towards the Liberals and 41 having swung to the NDP (despite the overall swing being to the NDP). The Liberals gained 3 seats between the two elections, and the NDP gained 2 (there were less seats in 2005). Notionally however, the NDP lost 4 seats while the Liberals gained 3 (and 1 Independent was elected). So even though there was a swing towards the party, they (notionally) lost seats!

Overall, all 73 of the 85 ridings had a swing that was within 5% of the provincial average. 4 ridings swung more than that towards the Liberals and 8 ridings swung more than that to the NDP. The riding that swung the most towards the Liberals was Vancouver-False Creek that saw nearly a 9% swing. This can perhaps be attributed to the condo boom in the riding, which has meant an influx of wealthy individuals. However on the flip side another riding experiencing a condo boom- Vancouver-West End saw a huge swing towards the NDP (7.5%). The other three ridings that experienced a large swing towards the Liberals were Delta South (thanks to Independent candidate Vicki Huntington winning and taking much of the NDP vote with her), Peace River South and Kootenay East. The riding that saw the highest swing towards the NDP was Surrey-Newton, which saw an 8.2% swing. The Liberals had a high profile candidate in 2005 (Olympic gold medallist Daniel Igali) and their vote collapsed in 2009. However, Surrey-Newton was not the only Surrey riding with heavy swings towards the NDP. Both Surrey-Green Timbers and Surrey-Whalley had swings of over 7% towards the NDP. Those ridings also happen to have a heavy Indo-Canadian population, and show that there may be a shift going on in that community. Other ridings that showed a high swing to the NDP include Nanaimo, Juan de Fuca, Port Coquitlam and Powell River-Sunshine Coast.

In looking at the swing map, the most obvious pattern is that for the most part, Liberal held seats swung towards the Liberals while NDP seats swung towards the NDP. There are many exceptions of course, but this is the overall trend. What this shows is that incumbency matters. Ridings that the Liberals notionally won in the 2005 election on average had a swing of 1.3% towards themselves, while ridings that the NDP notionally won in 2005 had an average swing of 2.3% towards themselves.  This is food for thought for anyone wanting to do a prediction.

For the record, ridings where the NDP notionally won in 2005 but saw swings away from them include Vancouver-Mount Pleasant, Nelson-Creston, Vancouver-Fairview (a riding they would lose in 2009), Kamloops-North Thompson (a notional loss of a seat, as they didn’t in actuality win a seat in Kamloops), Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge-Mission (another notional loss of a seat), Cariboo-Chilcotin (seat loss), and Burnaby North (another loss). One thing that this proves is that even though a seat may have notionally gone NDP in 2005, a lack of an NDP incumbent plus actually having a Liberal incumbent is a good indicator of a swing towards the Liberals. Meanwhile, 2005 notional Liberal ridings that swung NDP include Peace River North, Abbotsford West, Chilliwack, Parksville-Qualicum, Vancouver-Fraserview, Stikine, Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Burnaby-Deer Lake (NDP gain), Boundary-Similkameen, Saanich South (notional loss with an NDP incumbent), Saanich North and the Islands and Vernon-Monashee.

Trend map

The second map is the trend map. This map is almost identical to the swing map, as all it shows is the swing in a riding (to the NDP) minus 0.3%. The trend shows how the riding swung compared to the provincial average. Another way of looking at it is how the riding would have swung if the provincial swing was exactly 0%. Since the provincial swing towards the NDP was 0.3%, this is how much was taken off the swing in each riding to calculate the trend. Because the swing was so close to zero in the first place, the trend map isn’t very different from the swing map. In elections with huge swings however, trend maps are useful to see which areas are less susceptible to large swings than others.

The biggest change to look for on the trend map is the ridings that swung NDP but trended Liberal. There are only three of these ridings. They are Parksville-Qualicum, Boundary-Similkameen and Vancouver-Hastings. Out of all the ridings in the province, Vancouver-Hastings was the riding that was the closest to the provincial average in terms of its swing. Its trend towards the Liberals was less than 0.1%.  BC electoral geographers like to point to Kamloops as the provincial bellwether (as goes Kamloops, as does BC), but perhaps Vancouver-Hastings, a safe-NDP seat in Vancouver’s east end is the best indicator of BC vote swing?


So what does this all mean for next week’s election? Well, let’s take a look at the eight ridings I identified in my last blog post as the next eight ridings to go NDP with a uniform swing. These are the 8 ridings the NDP would win first en route to a majority government with a uniform swing. Presently, polls are showing an average swing of 6% to the NDP. This would give the NDP these eight ridings plus an additional six more.

Maple Ridge-Mission: As mentioned, the NDP notionally won this riding in 2005, but in reality it did not win the riding then known as “Maple Ridge-Mission”. With its current borders, the NDP won the seat by just 0.4%. With its borders in 2005, the Liberals won it by 0.7%. In 2009, the Liberal incumbent did not run again, but the Liberals were buoyed by at least being the incumbent party in the riding. This gave the Liberals a very small swing, enough to win the riding despite its new, more NDP-friendly borders. It was close though, as the Liberals won by just 0.3%. Given recent polls, even a modest pro-incumbency boost will not be enough to keep the NDP from winning this seat based on this very small trend.

Cariboo-Chilcotin: This riding is the successor riding of Cariboo South, a riding that the NDP won in 2005. Despite the re-name, the NDP still would’ve won the riding on its new 2009 borders by about 3%. While this is close, with the power of incumbency, and small province-wide swing towards the NDP, there was no reason for the NDP to lose the seat in 2009. However, the party did lose the riding, by a razor thing margin of 0.5%. This translated to a 3% trend to the Liberals. This was the third largest trend to the Liberals out of all NDP notionally-held seats. If this pro-Liberal trend continues, the NDP might find it hard to win this seat, despite only having lost it by 78 votes in 2009. The NDP is running the same candidate in Charlie Wyse, so if his record as an MLA hurt him last election, it could hurt him again.

Saanich North and the Islands: According to the map, most of Vancouver Island is trending towards the NDP, and polls show the NDP with a large lead on the Island. One of the few ridings they do not hold there is Saanich North and the Islands. This riding is formerly a safe one for the Liberals, having won it even in the 1990s when the NDP was winning majority governments. However, it has been trending heavily towards the NDP over the last 20 years, and the party cam within striking distance in 2009 when they lost it by 0.8%. It was one of only a small number of Liberal-held ridings to trend to the NDP. Only three other notionally Liberal ridings had higher swings to the NDP. Given polls, this riding would be a shoe-in for the NDP to win based on trends alone. However, the riding is held federally by Green Party leader Elizabeth May, and the provincial Greens are polling quite well on the island. This is one of their targeted ridings, and if they take more votes away from the NDP than the Liberals, they BC Liberals would still win.

Oak Bay-Gordon Head: This is another Liberal-held riding on Vancouver Island that is trending NDP. Despite holding the seat since 1996, sitting MLA Ida Chong seems to have no incumbency advantage behind her. She won the seat by 2.2% in 2009, but had notionally won it by 3.3% in 2005. Again, given trends and polls this riding should be ripe for the NDP to win, but is again complicated by the Green Party. The Greens are running their biggest campaign in this riding, and there is no reason to suggest they don’t have a good chance of winning it. This riding spans Elizabeth May’s riding and the federal riding of Victoria which just had a by-election a few months ago. If you recall the result of that by-election, the Greens very nearly doubled their seats in Parliament to 2 by almost winning it. And the polls in Oak Bay-Gordon Head? They went Green.

Kamloops-North Thompson: One area pundits like to call a bellwether in BC politics, is Kamloops, so there is no surprise in finding a Kamloops riding on this list. (It should be noted that this riding isn't the perfect bellwether, having voted for the opposition Liberals in 1996). This riding was one of those ridings that the NDP notionally won in 2005, but in reality did not. In fact, in reality, the Liberals won the Kamloops-North Thompson seat by over 8 points. On the 2009 boundaries however, the NDP would have won the seat by 2.1%. However in 2009, the Liberals won the seat by 2.4%. They were bolstered again by party incumbency. While their sitting MLA retired, it was no matter. The Liberals in reality held the seat and that gave them an advantage. The area may also be trending to the Liberals. Indeed, it did trend to the Liberals by 2.5% between 2005 and 2009. If the riding continues to trend Liberal, it might be difficult for the NDP to win it, despite how close it was last time.

Burnaby North: It might come as a surprise to the casual observer that this riding (and neighbouring Burnaby-Lougheed) are Liberal-held ridings. Especially considering the federal seat that spans both ridings has gone NDP in every election since 1979. No matter, the north end of Burnaby is the least NDP friendly part of the city. However, the NDP still held their own in the 2009 election, losing the seat by just 2.7%. In 2005, the NDP actually notionally won the seat by 0.5%. But the Liberals won the riding in reality and again, were boosted by having the incumbent. The riding had an overall trend of 1.9% to the Liberals. If that is repeated again in this election, it might just be low enough for the NDP to win it back.

Burnaby-Lougheed: Next door to Burnaby North is the very similar riding of Burnaby-Lougheed. It is also a marginal northern Burnaby seat. However, unlike Burnaby North, its 2005 notional results had the Liberals winning it, albeit by just 2.8%. Burnaby-Lougheed had a smaller trend to the Liberals than Burnaby North, at less than 1%. In 2009, MLA Harry Blow (who had previsioulsy represented the now defunct riding of “Burquitlam”) won the seat by 3.6%. All things considered, the trend may be low enough for the NDP to win this riding as well.

Vancouver-Fraserview:This riding has been a good bellwether in its history, having voted for the majority party in every election since its creation in 1991. And, it's a riding trending NDP (albeit narrowly). In 2005, the Liberals won the seat by 5%. This was narrowed down to less than 4% in 2009. One thing that helped was the Liberal incumbent, Wally Oppal was not running again. Also at play is the large South Asian community in this riding. We know the South Asians in Surrey are partly responsible for ridings trending NDP there. While we haven't seen that to a large degree in Fraserview, it is not inconceivable to see South Asians go NDP here as well. It would not take a large swing in this riding for the NDP to take this riding, and if you factor in the small trend to the NDP, this riding will probably go NDP on election day.

If the NDP can't win all 8 of those ridings, they could have difficulty winning the next lowest hanging fruit based on trends alone. Of the next 5 ridings on the swingometre, only Vernon-Monashee saw a trend to the NDP between 2005 and 2009. However at this point, polls show the NDP can overcome most of these trends.

British Columbia provincial election "swing-o-metre"

British Columbians head to the polls next month (May 14) to elect a new government. In the past, I have made provincial election predictions, but unfortunately due to my new position at Probit Inc. I will be holding off on making predictions, due to possible conflict of interest purposes. However, I will be making various geography related posts in having to do with the upcoming election, including projections based solely on published polls, without factoring in any hearsay like I have done in the past.

Today, I take a look at the B.C. “swing-o-metre”, a simple measurement tool that shows how much swing is needed for the Liberals or the NDP (B.Cs two main parties) to win a seat. A swing is a calculation that is the average change between the Liberals and the NDP. For example, the most recent Ipsos-Reid poll shows the NDP at 48% and the Liberals at 29%. For the NDP, that would be an increase of 6% from their showing in the last election in 2009. For the Liberals, that would be a decrease of 17%. If you average those two numbers you get about 11.5%, which would be the swing from the Liberals to the NDP.

The chart on the left shows the swing needed for either party to win each seat from the result they got in the last election. For example, for the Liberals to win the riding of Surrey-Green Timbers, they would need a 24% swing from the NDP. On the other extreme is the riding of West Vancouver-Capilano which would require a 26% swing from the Liberals to the NDP in order for the NDP to take the riding. This swing-o-metre works because all but one seat in the legislature was won by either party in 2009. One riding, Delta South was won by an independent, however I kept that riding on the chart to show how much the NDP would need in order to get ahead of the Liberals there (but not necessarily win).

In the 2009 election, the conservative leaning BC Liberals, lead by then Premier Gordon Campbell won a majority of the province's 85 ridings by winning 48 seats to the N.D.P.'s 35. (As mentioned, 1 seat was won by an Independent). Since then, Campbell's government became very unpopular, and he resigned. He was replaced by Christy Clark, who as of yet has been unable to rescue the party. During her reign, the province has seen the rise of the even more right wing Conservative Party, which had been a fringe party. It is now lead by former MP John Cummins. While the new Conservatives may not win any seats, they are polling in the low teens, and that vote is coming straight from the Liberals. However, even if the Liberals and the Conservatives were a united force, they still wouldn't match the polling the NDP is at. The NDP is at historic highs in the polls, led by popular leader Adrian Dix. Most polls show the NDP in the mid-40s, and the Liberals in the high 20s. There is also the BC Green Party, which is polling around the level of the Conservatives.

The most recent polls, from last week show a 7-12% swing from the Liberals to the NDP from the last election. According to the swing-o-metre, this would give the NDP 55-65 seats, a strong majority. The swing-o-metre also shows that the NDP needs only a swing of 1.93% to get a majority of the seats (43). This swing would give them the ridings of Maple Ridge-Mission, Cariboo-Chilcotin, Saanich North and the Islands, Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Kamloops-North Thompson, Burnaby North, Burnaby-Lougheed and Vancouver-Fraserview. To get to those 55 seats, the NDP would also win Vernon-Monashee, Surrey-Tynehead, Vancouver-Point Grey (Premier Clark's riding), North Vancouver-Lonsdale, Chilliwack, Port Moody-Coquitlam (a riding they hold now, thanks to a by-election win last Spring), Penticton, Prince George-Valemount and Parksville-Qualicum (securing a sweep of Vancouver Island). Of course, this only assumes a province-wide uniform swing, which we know wont actually happen. But it's a rough guide to see what riding's are in play. 

Swing-o-metre map. The darker the riding, the larger the swing necessary for the opposing party to win.

 

Kent by-election in New Brunswick

A provincial by-election is currently being held in the riding of Kent, New Brunswick, today. (I would have liked to have done a more thorough analysis of the race, but I was pre-empted by the federal Liberal leadership race map. But anyways, I will lay down the need-to-know)

location

The riding is a rural one, located in Eastern New Brunswick. Its largest community is Bouctouche, a town of 2400 people. The riding is home to three linguistic communities. 55% of the population are Francophone,  one third are English, while 10% of the riding speaks the local Native language, Mi’kmaq (Micmac). The riding extends from the Northumberland Strait in the east into the interior of the province, and consists of two valleys, the Bouctouche River valley in the south, and the Richibucto River valley in the north. The former is home to the French part of the riding, and the latter is Anglophone and is also home to the main Mi’kmaq reserve in the riding, the Elsipogtog First Nation.

The riding was vacated when former Liberal Premier Shawn Graham resigned on March 13. The riding has been in the Graham family since 1967, as his father, Alan served before him. Indeed, the area is a Liberal stronghold, and the riding has voted Liberal in every election since 1917 except for 1971 when one of its then 3 MLAs that got elected was a Tory:

MLAs  since 1917
3 members
P.J. Melanson, Liberal (1917-1925)
A.J. Bordage, Liberal (1917-1944)
A.A. Dysart, Liberal (1917-1940)
R.G. Richard, Liberal (1925-1930)
F.G. Richard, Liberal (1930-1939)
Isaie Melanson, Liberal (1939-1956)
J.K. McKee, Liberal (1940-1952)
Armand Richard, Liberal (1944-1952)
H.A. Dysart, Liberal (1952-1964)
L.J. Robichaud, Liberal (1952-1971)
A.F. Richard, Liberal (1956-1974)
Camille Bordage, Liberal (1964-1967)
Omer Leger, Prog. Cons. (1971-1974)
---
1 member after 1974
A.R. Graham, Liberal (1967-1998)
S.M. Graham, Liberal (1998-2013)

Poll map, 2010 provincial election

Running for the Liberals this time is their current leader, Brian Gallant, a half-Acadian, half-Dutch New Brunswicker. The Tories are running Jimmy Bourque, a former political staffer who does not live in the riding. The NDP is running Susan Levi-Peters, a former chief of the Elsipogtog First Nation, and the provincial candidate in 2010 and also the federal candidate in 2011.

Interestingly, the Anglophone part of the riding is the more Liberal friendly, as former Premier Graham is an Anglophone from the village of Rexton. The Francophone part of the riding is the more Tory friendly, but in the last provincial election, also went Liberal, but with smaller margins. The Tories won all 5 of their polls in the Bouctouche area. The NDP won 2 polls, both on the Elsipogtog First Nation. More than half of the NDP vote in the riding came from those two polls.

Federally, the riding has seen a similar pattern in recent history. Kent is located in the federal riding of Beausejour, which is also a Liberal riding. The Kent part of the riding was very evenly split in the last election, with the remote interior, and the upper Richibucto Valley going Tory, as well as parts of the Bouctouche area. The Bouctouche Valley actually went Liberal, as well as the lower Richibucto Valley. The Mi’kmaq areas went NDP (both reserves in the riding). Before the 2011 election, the Kent area was much more Liberal friendly, with patterns more closely resembling the provincial patterns.

Polls close at 8pm Atlantic (7 Eastern).

Liberal leadership race - results map

Much to my excitement, the Liberals have released riding by riding results of their leadership race which was released Sunday. As expected, Justin Trudeau won, but he won big- with 80% of the vote. Finishing second was MP Joyce Murray with 10% of the vote. Trudeau won across the county, and only lost 5 ridings- all in BC which Murray won.

Here is the map:

Trudeau did the best on the east coast, especially in Newfoundland, but also in areas with large minority communities. His weakest areas tended to be urban areas friendly to the NDP, where progressive Liberal voters may have been attracted to Joyce Murray. Murray did well in her home province, where she won 5 ridings, including her own. No other candidates won any ridings.

Federal Liberal leadership maps

The Canadian Election Atlas is back from hiatus to take a look at the federal Liberal Party leadership race which will decide a winner today. Admittedly, it has not been a race I have been interested in too much, as since the beginning, the winner has been a foregone conclusion. (If you've been living in a box, that winner is Justin Trudeau). Despite this foregone conclusion, the race has six candidates, and at one point had as many as nine candidates. The last time a Liberal leadership race was a foregone conclusion (not including 2009), there were only two candidates (when Paul Martin beat Sheila Copps in 2003).

Despite the race being a foregone conclusion, the abundance of candidates has meant that there is a race, and the Liberal Party's decision to ditch the traditional delegated conventions and move to a more democratic one member one vote system has made the race at least a little interesting. And it's not just a one member, one vote system either, as the Liberals have expanded the amount of people who can vote in their leadership election by allowing people who “support” the party to vote in it, without needing to get a membership. In total, 127000 people are eligible to vote the Liberal leadership race.

The press has had a field day comparing the Liberal leadership race to the NDP's leadership race. Indeed, the amount of registered voters is similar (the NDP had about 131000 eligible voters). However, the Liberals have surpassed the NDP in terms of actual voters. I won't go into partisan reasons why, but I just thought it was interesting.

Anyways, much like the NDP race, I have made an endorsement map for the Liberal leadership race. It's not nearly as interesting as the NDP race, as there were fewer endorsements made, and most endorsements were for Justin Trudeau. In terms of political endorsements (only counting people who have been democratically elected), Trudeau leads in Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador. 2^nd place candidate Joyce Murray (MP for Vancouver Quadra) leads the endorsement race in her home province of BC, while former MP Martha Hall Findlay (Willowdale) leads in Alberta and New Brunswick. Saskatchewan, which had just two endorsers is a tie between Trudeau and Murray, with one endorsement each. Deborah Coyne is the only other candidate with a political endorsement. Candidates Martin Cauchon and Karen McCrimmon have none.

Endorsement map.
Click to enlarge.

Hopefully the Liberal Party will release provincial results for their leadership race, but might hold out on doing so, like the NDP. If they do, it will be interesting to compare the actual results to the endorsements. In any event, if the endorsement map tells us anything, it is that this race is Trudeau's to lose. If there is a race for second, it will be between Joyce Murray and Martha Hall Findlay, although I personally think Murray has the edge.

Like I did for the NDP leadership race, I have also created a number of “membership” (read: registered voter) maps for the race, showing the registered voter distribution (both in raw numbers and percentage of population), registered voters to MP ratio and votes in 2011 to registered voters ratio:

Province / Territory	Registered voters for leadership race	% of population	Liberal registered voters to MP ratio	2011 Liberal voters to Liberal registered voters
Alberta	9302	0.26	-	13.9
British Columbia	16098	0.37	8049	15.6
Manitoba	4444	0.37	4444	18.3
New Brunswick	6889	0.92	6889	12.8
Newfoundland and Labrador	3149	0.61	787.25	26.1
Northwest Territories	176	0.42	-	16.3
Nova Scotia	7425	0.81	1856.25	17.6
Nunavut	56	0.18	-	40.4
Ontario	59474	0.46	5406.7	23.5
Prince Edward Island	2611	1.86	870.3	12.4
Quebec	14577	0.18	1822.1	36.9
Saskatchewan	2700	0.26	2700	14.3
Yukon	223	0.66	-	23.7
TOTAL	127124	0.4	3832.1	21.9

The first map shows the provinces and territories coloured in my number of registered Liberal voters. Ontario has by far the most amount of voters at 59,474 which accounts for 47% of the Liberal electorate. Interestingly, British Columbia is next with 16,098 followed by Quebec at 14,577. Not surprisingly, Nunavut has the least amount of Liberal leadership voters at 56.

The second map is coloured by the percentage of the population who are eligible to vote for Liberal leader. Prince Edward Island tops this list, as the only province or territory where more than 1% of the population is registered to vote (1.86%). The next highest is New Brunswick at 0.92% followed by Nova Scotia at 0.81%. Quebec and Nunavut are the lowest at just 0.18%. 

The next maps shows the registered Liberal vote to MP ratio. BC tops this list, having just 2 Members of Parliament for it 16000 voters. New Brunswick is next, with just one MP for its 6900 voters. The province with the best ratio is Newfoundland and Labrador which has 4 Members for 3149 registered voters. Alberta, and the three Territories have no Liberal MPs.

The final map shows the ratio of actual Liberal voters (that is people who voted Liberal in the last federal election) to registered Liberal voters. One thing I found from this calculation is how relatively even these numbers are across the provinces and territories. The range goes from 40 in Nunavut to 12 in PEI. This is far more even than we saw in the NDP race, where we saw some large discrepancies, such as in Quebec. 

Ontario Liberal leadership race - delegate map

Ontario Liberals met last weekend to elect delegates who will be sent to Toronto on the weekend of January 25-27 to elect the next Premier of Ontario. Current Premier and Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty announced last October that he would be resigning as Premier following a vote to elect the next leader of the party.

As a rule, I have been avoiding making maps of provincial party leadership races, but I have decided to change that and begin to cover at least the races of provincial governing parties. As the Liberals are currently in power in Ontario, I have decided to map the leadership race.

Liberal Party members got together in all 107 ridings last weekend, and in various campus clubs and women's organizations to elect a slate of delegates to attend the leadership race. Most elected delegates have committed to vote for a particular candidate, but 67 of the 1875 elected delegates are uncommitted. Former Windsor West MPP and Education Minister Sandra Pupatello won the most delegates (510). Don Valley West MPP and another former Education Minister Kathleen Wynne won the second most amount of delegates at 468. The race is widely expected to be between those two, meaning that Ontario will likely see its first female Premier in its history. To boot, if Wynne wins, she will become the first openly gay (the late former Premier of New Brunswick Richard Hatfield was gay, but in the closet) person to lead a province in Canadian history. In third place is former Parkdale—High Park MP and MPP, and yet another former Minister of Education, Gerard Kennedy. He won 259 delegates. In fourth is Mississauga—Erindale MPP and former Transportation Minister Harinder Takhar. He was the biggest surprise finisher in the delegate fight, picking up 244 delegates, despite few endorsements from current or former caucus members. Close behind him in 5^th is another Mississauga MPP (Mississauga South) and former Labour Minister Charles Sousa. He secured 204 delegates. And finally in last place is St. Paul's MPP and former Citizenship and Immigration Minister Eric Hoskins. He won just 105 delegates.

Each of Ontario's 107 ridings will be sending a slate of 16 delegates to the Toronto convention. In addition, a number of Liberal clubs in universities across the province elected delegates, as did a number of Liberal women's clubs. All 6 candidates won at least a plurality of delegates in at least one riding. In fact, last place candidate Hoskins won 2 ridings. Uncommitted delegates won a plurality in two ridings as well (Vaughan and Scarborough—Rouge River). I'm not sure why that happened.

The support that each candidate received across the regions of the province can be attributed to a number of factors. Tribal politics appear to be alive and well in the Liberal Party, as certain ethnic groups have clearly put their support behind certain candidates. Also, it appears that endorsements truly do matter in many cases. Here is an analysis of the support for all six candidates.

Hoskins

Hoskins won just two ridings, and perhaps surprisingly, neither of them is the riding he currently holds in the Ontario Legislature. He lost St. Paul's by just one delegate to Wynne (6-5). He did win an overwhelming majority of delegates in the riding of Haldimand—Norfolk where he ran federally in the 2008 election. He also won the riding of Scarborough—Guildwood where he won the endorsement of its MPP, Magarett Best.

Sousa

Sousa's support was concentrated in the GTA where he won 9 ridings and tied in 4 others. His best riding was his own, Mississauga South where he won 14 of the 16 delegates. He also did well in Davenport, a riding with a high Portuguese population. He also won York South—Weston, another riding with a high Portuguese population. Sousa himself is Portuguese. Outside of his own riding however, he won no other seats in the Peel Region. He did tie with Takhar in Mississauga East—Cooksville, however. Sousa did fairly well in Scarborough (thanks to endorsements by two local MPPs) where he won three seats and in a handful of exurban ridings.

Takhar

Takhar's campaign focused heavily on the South Asian community in Ontario. While he finished fourth in delegates, he finished a strong third in total number of ridings won. This indicates that he support was concentrated heavily in the ridings he did well in. Takhar did the best in his home region of Peel, where he won or tied in all but two ridings. He also did well in the northwest corner of Toronto, which is home to a high immigrant population. What's most surprising about his strength was the wins in suburban Ottawa (Nepean—Carleton and Carleton—Mississippi Mills), Niagara West—Glanbrook, Hamilton—Stoney Creek and in the Grand River Valley region (Guelph, Brant, Kitchener-Waterloo, etc). I have no idea why he did so well there.

Kennedy

Kennedy's strength was a mile wide and an inch deep it seems. While he finished third in delegates, he finished fifth in terms of seats won- just eight, and tied in two others. His support was not really concentrated in any particular region of the province. His best riding was of course, Parkdale—High Park which he represented both federally and provincially in the past. He won 10 delegates there. Some of his other wins can be attributed to high profile endorsements, like the ones in Niagara Falls and Brampton West. The other ridings he won are quite random: Sarnia—Lambton, Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, Oxford, Peterborough and Timiskaming—Cochane (plus his two ties, Barrie and Scarborough Centre). Not sure why he won in those seats in particular.

Wynne

Wynne did strongly in two very different areas of the province, Central Toronto and Central Ontario. The former is a very left wing part of the province, perhaps the most left wing part, while the latter is quite the opposite. While it's easy to explain why left leaning Liberals in Toronto would support Wynne, an open lesbian who happens to hail from the region, but it's harder to explain why she won ridings in the bluest part of the province- Central and Central Eastern Ontario. Wynne's home riding of Don Valley West tied for her best riding, with 13 delegates. Interestingly, and oddly- the other riding to give her 13 delegates was Nipissing. She did receive the endorsement of Nipissing's former MPP, Monique Smith. But, I can't quite explain why Wynne won in conservative leaning ridings like Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, Leeds—Grenville, Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington or Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock. Especially considering the fact that Wynne is widely seen as the “left” candidate- at least compared to Pupatello. My only explanation comes down to religion. This region of the province is highly Protestant, and while I'm not sure what relgion (if any) Wynne is, it's clear that with a name like Pupatello, she certainly is not.

Pupatello

Pupatello has built her delegate lead on a coalition of a number of regions across the province. Namely these are the urban north, Ottawa and the far east, and her home region of Southwestern Ontario. Usually this wouldn't be enough to lead any race, but in this fractured election, it's just enough, if you couple it with a spattering of random ridings in the middle of the province. From the looks of it, Pupatello's Italian heritage seems to have helped her win ridings with high Italian populations. One big exception is Ontario's most Italian riding, Vaughan which saw half its delegates go uncommitted and only two for Pupatello. Pupatello also did well in highly Catholic, and highly Francophone ridings like Ottawa—Vanier, Glengarry—Prescott—Russell and Timmins—James Bay. I'm not sure if Pupatello is even bilingual, so perhaps this support also comes down to religion. Interestingly, Pupatello's best riding was Thunder Bay—Superior North where she won 14 delegates. She was endorsed by both of Thunder Bay's MPPs. She also did well in the other Thunder Bay riding, Thunder Bay-Atikokan, where she won 12 delegates. Her next best ridings were highly Francophone Glengarry—Prescott—Russell and Essex where she won 13 delegates each. Essex is right next door to her former home riding of Windsor West, where she happened to win 12 delegates.

The Ontario Liberal delegate map raises a lot of questions about how leadership contests work, and how people vote. It really is quite fascinating. Does it raise questions about tribal politics? Does it mean endorsements work? For the most part though, many of the things going on in this map are unexplainable by me. Perhaps I just need to know more about the Liberal Party? Anyways, their leadership contest is a week and a half away; and because it is a delegated convention, there will be no way to map the different rounds, so this will have to suffice for now. For more details about the delegate breakdown, click here.

Newfoundland and Labrador - an alternate proposal

The commission's report boundaries

Five provincial boundary commissions have submitted their proposed federal riding boundaries that will sent to the House of Commons for review. The deadline for submissions was December 21, so one can assume that the other five boundary commissions asked for a two month extension.

This next step in the federal riding boundary redistribution process means a whole new set of maps of the provinces from the original proposals we saw earlier in the year. These new maps came as a result of a series of public consultations held across the country. These next set of maps will not be the final boundaries, but they will be pretty close to finalized.

Alberta, Manitoba, Prince Edward Island (which saw no changes), Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador's boundary commissions all released their reports, while the remaining provinces we will not see for at least two months.

Today, I will present an alternate proposal to the Newfoundland and Labrador map. It will be one that does not guarantee Labrador its own riding.

My alternate proposal. (Inset is St. John's)

The boundary commission did not deviate drastically from their originally proposed map. The public seemed supportive of the new north-south alignment of the three rural Newfoundland ridings, which makes more sense, as it follows transportation links better. The commission only made minor changes such as moving a few villages or neighbouhoods from one riding to another for community of interest reasons. The commission also renamed their “St. John's North” riding to “St. John's East”, as I predicted.

The commission briefly considered the issue of Labrador, currently Canada's least populated riding. Only one submitter (from Ottawa – not me I promise!) proposed doing away with this riding, which is less than one third the size of the average Newfoundland riding and has less people than any of Canada's northern territories. Large, remote ridings, such as Labrador are often exempted from taking on larger territories, and Labrador has been one such exemption. The riding is geographically isolated from the rest of the province by the Strait of Belle Isle, and is for all intents and purposes very much different from the rest of the province. But the fact of the matter is, the area has seen its population stagnate in the last decade, and, as mentioned is the least populated riding in the entire country. There is no reason that Labrador should be more over represented than any of Canada's territories. I feel that the commission should have at least considered a riding which would have consisted of Labrador plus some of Newfoundland.

My proposal is to link Labrador with the northern peninsula of Newfoundland, which is geographically the closest part of the island to Labrador. There is also a link from this region to Labrador via ferry. My proposal is to make Labrador roughly 50% of this riding, so that the area is not over-represented by the Newfoundland portion. This ensures that Labrador will keep its weight in parliament even though the riding will be twice the size. However, due to Labrador's size, a riding even twice the size of it will still be much smaller than the rest of the province (53,000 people compared to 77,000), but at least it would be closer to the average.

To make it to 53,000 (Labrador has 26,500 people), the Labrador riding would have to include all of the Northern Peninsula of Newfoundland plus the Baie Verte Peninsula. If you include all of these areas you get 51,441 people- close enough. I made the eastern boundary of the riding at King's Point to keep the larger community of Springdale out of the riding. I would name this riding Labrador—St. Barbe—Baie Verte.

The remainder of the province gets six ridings, with an average population of 77,000 people. This new Labrador riding would take a significant chunk out of the current Humber—St. Barbe—Baie Verte riding, meaning that riding would need to expand. My proposal would take a page out of the commission's proposal by linking the left over area (the Humber region) with the St. George's region to its south. However, this would not make a large enough riding. So, my proposal would be to link the west coast of the province (Humber and St. George regions) with the isolated south coast region. The St. George's area and the south coast are already linked together by the riding of Random—Burin—St. George's. The south coast is fairly isolated as it is, and while it may have road links to central Newfoundland (hence why the commission put the area into the central riding) it still has ferry links to the west coast of the province, and the community of Burgeo also has a road link. This riding would have a population of 76,713 and I would name it “Humber—St. George's—Bay d'Espoir”.

The creation of the new Labrador riding has meant that some of the existing Humber—St. Barbe—Baie Verte riding has been lobbed off. This is the area around Springdale. While this region does have better transportation links with the Baie Verte peninsula, it had to be excluded from the Labrador riding so that Labrador would still be more than 50% of that riding. This area, which is located on the west coast of Notre Dame Bay, I would have united with the rest of the Notre Dame Bay shore area which is presently in the riding of Bonavista—Gander--Grand Falls-Windsor. This new riding would consist of much of the same areas as this riding, however the addition of the Springdale area would make it too over-populated. This is why removed the Bonavista Bay area. I made the eastern boundary of the riding between Gambo and Glovertown. This was done for population reasons, but it also makes for a good natural boundary as it separates the communities on the western shore of Bonavista Bay (which I would keep in the new riding) from the communities along Highway 310. This new riding would have a population of 75,552 and I would call it Gander—Grand Falls-Windsor—Notre Dame.

With the rest of the Bonavista Bay area removed from its current riding of Bonavista—Gander--Grand Falls-Windsor, I had to put the area somewhere. The riding boundary proposal created a new north-south aligned riding which united the Burin Peninsula, the Bonavista Bay area, the Bonavista Peninsula and the Trinity Bay area in one riding. My proposal would call for a similar riding. It would also include the Burin and Bonavista Peninsulas, as well as most of the Bonavista Bay area. The riding would also extend into the Avalon Peninsula and would contain most of the Bay de Verde peninsula as well. The boundary commission's proposed boundary in the area goes as far as Salmon Cove on Conception Bay, but due to population reasons, I had to go further down the peninsula and stop before Spaniard's Bay. This would add a significant population centre (Carbonear) to my riding which is why my name for the riding (Bonavista—Burin—Bay de Verde) would be different than the commissions proposed name of “Bonavista—Burin—Trinity”. My proposal contains more of the Bay de Verde peninsula, and more of an area not on Trinity Bay, but on Conception Bay. The population of this riding would be 78,132,

This leaves us with an area of the province very similar to area proposed by the commission. However, my proposal of what to do with the remaining three ridings is somewhat different. I started with the riding of St. John's South—Mount Pearl which has a population of 83,000- which is a bit too big for quotient of 77,000. My proposal would be to remove the portions of the riding in the downtown area, and give those areas to St. John's East. My proposed boundary, which encircles the downtown core, is somewhat more natural than the present boundary along Gower St. These changes would bring down the size of the riding to 77,011- a perfect fit.

Adding the Downtown area to St. John's East would dramatically increase the size of that riding, even more than it's already huge size of 101,000. Presently, the western boundary of the riding splits up the municipalit of Conception Bay South. The commission's proposal and it's current report split up the City of Paradise. All of these boundaries seem rather arbitrary (the report isolates two neighbourhoods in Paradise from the rest of the city), and my proposal would be to remove all of CBS and all of Paradise from the riding. This makes the Paradise city limits the western boundary of the riding, which makes more sense. And it makes for a good riding size at 77,620.

This leaves us with one last riding, Avalon, which is very similar to the commission's report for the riding. The commission's version of the riding would be slightly larger (81,540) than my proposed version (77,532) as it excludes the Carbonear area, the Bay Bulls area and the Long Harbour area.

That concludes my proposal. If you want to read the commission's report, it can be found here.