Ontario election 2011 prediction (september 26)

Outline by S. Smith

This past weekend, Forum Research published the largest poll in Canadian history for the provincial election in Ontario. 40,000 people were polled, asking which party they were supporting. This poll was so large, individual riding results were also published within a certain degree of accuracy.

For this projection, I will only be looking at this particular poll, due to the fact that there is no way you can get more accurate than 40,000 respondents- the margin of error was just 0.5%. The results of the poll are quite interesting; it showed an exact tie between the Tories and the Liberals at 35%, with the NDP trailing not too far behind at 23%. The Greens meanwhile are at a respectable 6% province wide.

Looking at individual ridings, according to Forum Research these numbers translate to 47 seats each for the Liberals and Tories and just 13 for NDP. This is where the errors comes in. With a tie vote, the Liberals should have the edge in seats, but they don't. This can be explained by large rural swings against them, which I factored into my projection. But one statistic that doesn't sit right is the 13 seats for the NDP. That would mean a net increase of just three seats on a swing of 6%. This seams ridiculous considering the party was able to win 17 seats on just 18% of the vote in the 2008 federal election. But who knows, perhaps the party is doing well, but not in any concentrations.

The report published in the Toronto Star indicated that there were 28 seats within 5% of the vote, but didn't say who was leading or in second place in them. They were: Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough--Westdale, Beaches--East York, Bramalea—Gore—Malton, Brampton—Springdale, Halton, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener—Conestoga, Kitchener—Waterloo, London North Centre, London West, Mississauga East, Mississauga—Erindale, Mississauga South, Niagara Falls, Oak Ridges—Markham, Ottawa South, Pickering--Scarborough East, Richmond Hill, St. Catharines, Thornhill, Thunder Bay—Atikokan, Thunder Bay--Superior North, Timmins--James Bay, Trinity—Spadina, Welland, Windsor—Tecumseh, Windsor West and York Centre.

Some of those seats make sense, but others are quite odd, like McGuinty in danger of losing his seat in Ottawa South, or the NDP at risk of losing Timmins—James Bay. Additionally, there are some notable absences from this list, like my own riding of Ottawa Centre. Some of the individual riding sample sizes are quite low however. Timmins—James Bay had just 54 respondents in the poll.

Sunday morning I looked for some individual riding numbers, and found some for the Greater Toronto Area. Looking at the map found that most ridings seemed to be accurate, but there are a few oddities. Specifically, how poor the NDP seems to be doing in Toronto, despite polls from earlier last week showing the party was doing better than they were at federally. Forum Research has the party losing Parkdale—High Park surprisingly, and in danger of losing the two strongholds of Trinity—Spadina and Beaches—East York. Also, the party is way behind in York South—Weston, despite some indications of a strong NDP campaign there. Also, the Tories being ahead in two Brampton ridings is a bit of a surprise, considering I would have expected other ridings to go first. I suppose many Indo-Canadians are warming up to the provincial Tories at the expense of the Liberals.

I also found some numbers from Bruce, Grey and Simcoe Counties. The big surprise here is the collapse of the Liberal vote in Huron—Bruce which is part of the reason why I suspect the Liberals are way behind in their rural seats.

And so, I am left to make a new projection from all of this. I didn't just copy and paste the poll numbers into the ridings, but I did make some adjustments where I could find the numbers. Some wonky ridings I nearly ignored completely, but then again, it's possible the polls are correct about those seats. I will be taking a close look at these seats in the next week and a half before election day.

Seat by seat projection

Riding	Lib	PC	NDP	Grn	Oth	Projected winner
Ajax—Pickering	43	37	13	6	1	Joe Dickson
Algoma—Manitoulin	37	15	41	5	1	Michael Mantha
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	36	41	16	6	1	Donna Skelly
Barrie	26	47	19	7	1	Rod Jackson
Beaches—East York	32	18	39	10	1	Michael Prue
Bramalea—Gore—Malton	36	32	27	4	1	Kuldip Kular
Brampton West	42	38	16	4	0	Vic Dhillon
Brampton—Springdale	38	39	17	5	1	Pam Hundal
Brant	40	34	20	4	2	Dave Levac
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	29	42	13	11	5	Bill Walker
Burlington	31	46	17	5	1	Jane McKenna
Cambridge	25	45	24	5	1	Rob Leone
Carleton—Mississippi Mills	35	47	12	5	1	Jack MacLaren
Chatham-Kent—Essex	27	45	23	5	-	Rick Nicholls
Davenport	35	11	47	5	2	Jonah Schein
Don Valley East	43	30	22	4	1	Michael Coteau
Don Valley West	47	38	8	6	1	Kathleen Wynne
Dufferin—Caledon	24	49	10	17	0	Sylvia Jones
Durham	27	47	19	6	1	John O'Toole
Eglinton—Lawrence	50	36	9	4	1	Mike Colle
Elgin—Middlesex—London	25	49	21	4	1	Jeff Yurek
Essex	24	40	32	4	-	Dave Brister
Etobicoke Centre	47	35	12	4	2	Donna Cansfield
Etobicoke North	48	25	21	4	2	Shafiq Qaadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore	41	34	17	6	2	Laurel Broten
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	37	44	13	5	1	Marlissa Gosselin
Guelph	45	28	15	11	1	Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk	20	60	15	4	1	Toby Barrett
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	34	47	13	6	0	Laurie Scott
Halton	34	46	14	4	1	Ted Chudleigh
Hamilton Centre	23	18	50	7	2	Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	26	28	40	4	2	Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain	30	27	37	4	2	Monique Taylor
Huron—Bruce	32	38	25	4	1	Lisa Thompson
Kenora—Rainy River	29	31	36	4	0	Sarah Campbell
Kingston and the Islands	44	29	20	5	2	John Gerretsen
Kitchener Centre	40	35	19	5	1	John Milloy
Kitchener—Conestoga	36	41	18	5	-	Michael Harris
Kitchener—Waterloo	37	43	14	5	1	Elizabeth Witmer
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex	35	40	19	4	2	Monte McNaughton
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	33	43	18	6	-	Randy Hiller
Leeds—Grenville	25	55	14	6	0	Steve Clark
London North Centre	39	32	21	7	1	Deb Matthews
London West	44	38	17	4	1	Chris Bentley
London—Fanshawe	35	29	30	4	2	Khalil Ramal
Markham—Unionville	48	29	18	4	1	Michael Chan
Mississauga East—Cooksville	42	38	15	4	1	Dipika Damerla
Mississauga South	44	40	11	4	1	Charles Sousa
Mississauga—Brampton South	43	36	16	4	1	Armit Mangat
Mississauga—Erindale	42	38	15	4	1	Harinder Takhar
Mississauga—Streetsville	44	36	13	7	-	Bob Delaney
Nepean—Carleton	30	49	13	7	1	Lisa MacLeod
Newmarket—Aurora	34	46	14	6	-	Frank Klees
Niagara Falls	42	36	16	5	2	Kim Craitor
Niagara West—Glanbrook	21	54	18	5	2	Tim Hudak
Nickel Belt	25	20	51	4	-	France Gelinas
Nipissing	34	46	16	4	-	Victor Fedeli
Northumberland—Quinte West	35	40	18	6	1	Rob Milligan
Oak Ridges—Markham	39	42	14	4	1	Farid Wassef
Oakville	43	39	11	5	2	Kevin Flynn
Oshawa	18	42	35	4	1	Jerry Ouellette
Ottawa Centre	32	20	39	8	1	Anil Naidoo
Ottawa South	42	35	16	6	1	Dalton McGuinty
Ottawa West—Nepean	37	41	16	5	1	Randall Denley
Ottawa—Orleans	43	41	11	4	1	Phil McNeely
Ottawa—Vanier	41	27	24	7	1	Madeleine Meilleur
Oxford	23	52	18	5	2	Ernie Hardeman
Parkdale—High Park	32	14	44	7	3	Cheri DiNovo
Parry Sound—Muskoka	19	48	22	10	1	Norm Miller
Perth—Wellington	37	42	13	6	2	Randy Pettapiece
Peterborough	42	29	23	5	1	Jeff Leal
Pickering—Scarborough East	42	36	16	5	1	Tracey MacCharles
Prince Edward—Hastings	34	39	21	4	2	Todd Smith
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	18	65	13	4	0	John Yakabuski
Richmond Hill	42	37	14	6	1	Reza Moridi
St. Catharines	40	35	18	5	2	Jim Bradley
St. Paul's	43	28	19	8	2	Eric Hoskins
Sarnia—Lambton	23	45	26	4	2	Bob Bailey
Sault Ste. Marie	51	16	27	4	2	David Orazietti
Scarborough Centre	43	28	24	4	1	Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest	39	24	31	5	1	Lorenzo Berardinetti
Scarborough—Agincourt	50	27	17	4	2	Soo Wong
Scarborough—Guildwood	41	30	23	4	2	Margarett Best
Scarborough—Rouge River	45	21	28	3	3	Bas Balkissoon
Simcoe North	24	52	17	7	-	Garfield Dunlop
Simcoe—Grey	23	54	13	10	-	Jim Wilson
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	28	51	16	4	1	Jim McDonnell
Sudbury	49	14	32	4	1	Rick Bartolucci
Thornhill	41	45	9	4	1	Peter Shurman
Thunder Bay—Atikokan	32	23	41	4	0	Mary Kozorys
Thunder Bay—Superior North	42	12	42	4	0	Michael Gravelle or Steve Mantis
Timikaming—Cochrane	35	17	44	4	0	John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay	29	22	45	4	0	Gilles Bisson
Toronto Centre	44	20	26	8	2	Glen Murray
Toronto—Danforth	26	11	52	9	2	Peter Tabuns
Trinity—Spadina	33	14	45	7	1	Rasario Marchese
Vaughan	51	33	11	4	1	Greg Sorbara
Welland	24	33	38	4	1	Cindy Forster
Wellington—Halton Hills	27	55	11	7	-	Ted Arnott
Whitby—Oshawa	26	48	19	6	1	Christine Elliott
Willowdale	43	36	15	5	1	David Zimmer
Windsor West	33	20	43	4	-	Helmi Charif
Windsor—Tecumseh	41	20	34	4	1	Dwight Duncan
York Centre	41	40	13	5	1	Monte Kwinter
York South—Weston	39	14	42	4	1	Paul Ferriera
York West	51	17	27	4	1	Mario Sergio
York—Simcoe	24	52	17	6	1	Julia Munro

Seat changes since last projection

The Tories were the main beneficiary of this projection, gaining six seats in my theory that they are winning all of the rural Liberal seats. These are Huron—Bruce, Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, Northumberland—Quinte West, Perth—Wellington and Prince Edward—Hastings. Also, the absence of Ottawa West—Nepean on that close race list means that I believe it is firmly in the Tory column as well, making it the sixth Tory gain. Three of those Tory gains were from projected toss up seats. The NDP also gained on seat in this projection, in Algoma—Manitoulin (from toss up). Brampton—Springdale and Ottawa—Orleans are new toss ups, as those previously Liberal projected seats are now close races.

Conclusion

While I didn't come up with a tie in seats like Forum Research did, I did get a close result. Either the Tories or the Liberals can win this, but it will be a minority. The Tories are presently two seats behind. Even though I shifted many Liberal seats into the Tory column, I still couldn't get to the number provided in the forum research poll. And, I have no idea where they have the NDP gaining seats, but I suspect their low sample sizes in the north have meant that their numbers weren't too NDP friendly. In any event, I have the NDP winning at least 17 seats, not 13. And they will be holding the balance of power. 

Methodology/disclaimer

I have looked at each riding individually and tried to figure out what its voters might do in the upcoming election. For this, I looked at the riding history, and tried to come to a conclusion as to why certain parties did as well they did, or as poor as they did compared to other years. For certain ridings, I assumed a uniform swing, because I felt its historical voting trends follow the provincial voting trends. For other ridings, I looked at the results of the recent federal election and adjusted the results to reflect the most recent poll. And for other ridings, I could only make estimates, again using past election data. It all depended on the character of the riding.

Of course, there is bound to be some oversights on my part. If you think I have a riding wrong, please let me know. I want to get this as right as possible. The key to making correct projections is not all about the math. Rather, it's about the local conditions. That's why I will be looking at qualitative data just as much as I will be looking at quantitative.

Newfoundland and Labrador 2011 election prediction (Sept. 20)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith

A second poll has come out during the Newfoundland and Labrador election campaign, and it shows the beginnings of an NDP surge in the province, but with the Tories still firmly in landslide majority status.

A poll done my MQO Research this past weekend has the Tories still with a majority of popular support at 53%, the NDP firmly in second now at 29% and the Liberals trailing in third at 18%. The last poll (conducted by Corporate Research Associates) we saw from August, had the numbers at 54-24-22.

Unfortunately there are no regional breakdowns for any of these polls, and considering Newfoundland is such a diverse province geographically, I can only make guesses with my projection. I suspect much of the NDP surge is coming from the St. John's area, where they hold both federal seats. This is the same area where the Tories won massive majorities in the last provincial election in 2007. Even with the NDP polling much higher, these numbers will be hard for them to overcome. I'm not too familiar campaigns there, but if things are looking good for the NDP, the party can make some pick ups.They do have some strong candidates.

Riding by riding projections:

Riding	PC	Lib	NDP	Winning candidate
Baie Verte-Springdale	39	40	21	Neil Ward
Bay of Islands	44	43	13	Terry Loder
Bellevue	39	38	23	Calvin Peach
Bonavista North	51	27	22	Eli Cross
Bonavista South	77	9	14	Glen Little
Burgeo-La Poile	31	58	11	Andrew Parsons
Burin-Placentia West	46	5	49	Julie Mitchell
Cape St. Francis	58	8	34	Kevin Parsons
Carbonear-Harbour Grace	58	15	27	Jerome Kennedy
Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair	17	70	13	Yvonne Jones
Conception Bay East-Bell Island	53	10	37	David Brazil
Conception Bay South	61	12	27	Terry French
Exploits	53	23	24	Clayton Forsey
Ferryland	67	5	28	Keith Hutchings
Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune	46	32	22	Tracey Perry
Gander	52	19	29	Kevin O'Brien
Grand Bank	61	16	23	Darin King
Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans	52	3	45	Susan Sullivan
Grand Falls-Windsor-Green Bay South	55	23	22	Ray Hunter
Harbour Main	65	7	28	Tom Hedderson
Humber East	67	7	26	Tom Marshall
Humber Valley	41	52	7	Dwight Ball
Humber West	47	30	23	Vaughn Granter
Kilbride	73	4	23	John Dinn
Labrador West	33	4	63	Tom Harris
Lake Melville	40	37	23	Keith Russell
Lewisporte	54	13	33	Wade Verge
Mount Pearl North	65	4	31	Steve Kent
Mount Pearl South	65	4	31	Paul Lane
Placentia-St. Mary's	62	17	21	Felix Collins
Port au Port	64	13	23	Tony Cornect
Port de Grave	30	47	23	Leanne Hussey
Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi	26	2	72	Lorraine Michael
St. Barbe	41	41	18	Wallace Young or Jim Bennett
St. George's-Stephenville East	34	43	23	Joan Burke
St. John's Centre	55	4	41	Shawn Skinner
St. John's East	51	6	43	Ed Buckingham
St. John's North	58	6	36	Bob Ridgley
St. John's South	59	4	38	Tom Osborne
St. John's West	55	12	33	Dan Crummell
Terra Nova	57	13	29	Sandy Collins
The Isles of Notre Dame	42	48	10	Danny Dumaresque
The Straits-White Bay North	25	50	25	Marshall Dean
Topsail	61	3	36	Paul Davis
Torngat Mountains	47	40	13	Patty Pottle
Trinity-Bay de Verde	55	19	26	Charlene Johnson
Trinity North	65	9	26	Rose Wiseman
Virginia Waters	59	4	37	Kathy Dunderdale

Conclusion

Not much has changed in this projection, despite the new NDP surge. The NDP support is not concentrated heavily enough in any seats to help them win many more, but we must keep a close eye on the St. John's area. So far, I only have them picking up Burin-Placentia West from the Tories, but it's still in the toss up zone. However, they are inching closer in some St. John's seats. The Liberals meanwhile would still form official opposition thanks to concentrated strengths in a number of seats. In this projection they have lost Bellevue and Bay of Islands, and there is now a tie in St. Barbe. All of these seats are still in the toss up zone, and aren't reflected as changes in the below chart. The only change there was the Torngat Mountains which have been removed from the toss up category and put into the Tory one.

For those keeping track, the NDP would need to win six more seats to get opposition status. They would have to gain St. John's East, St. John's Centre, Lake Melville, Grand-Falls-Windsor-Buchans, Conception Bay East-Bell Island and Bellevue. And that would still require a 10 point swing! However, with very little knowledge at this point, anything can happen.

Prince Edward Island projection (Sept. 20)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith

In just two weeks, Canada's smallest province, Prince Edward Island will be going to the polls. And, I have yet to write up a projection for the province which will be going to the polls on Thanksgiving, October 3. It will be the first provincial election of the Fall.

Background

The Liberal Party under Premier Robert Ghiz remains extremely popular in the province. The party's only opposition in the legislature is from the Progressive Conservative Party, led by Olive Crane. The Tories won just 4 seats in the last election in 2007, and have been polling lower than their 41% mark set then ever since. The question appears to be whether or not the Liberals can win every seat in the legislature. This has not happened since 1935. The province, being as small as it is is prone to massive swings in one direction or the other, and parties have routinely won nearly every seat in the legislature. Close elections are not the norm on the island and it has not been since 1996 since an opposition party has won more than 5 seats and it has not been since 1986 since an opposition party has won more than 10.

The most recent poll of island residents was conducted in August, and saw the Liberals with 59% (up 6 from the 2007 election) of support, 31% for the Tories (down 10%), 7% for the NDP and 3% for the Greens. The new populist “Island Party” will also be contesting the election, but was not polled. They will remain the wild card. The NDP is trying to rebound from its 4^th place performance in 2007, but will be hard pressed as it is running one fewer candidate (14). The Greens, which finished third in 2007 are running 22 candidates, up four from 2007. The Island Party is running 12 candidates. There are 27 in total.

Ridings to watch

With the Liberals polling so high, there will be few races to watch in this election. The Liberals are sure to be the strongest in Queens County, which is the central part of the Island (including Charlottetown). The August poll conducted by Corporate Research Associates poll showed that the Liberals have a 32% lead there, which is about 14% more than the last election. In Prince County, in the west, the Liberals have a 15% lead, which is about the same as the last election. This area is represented by Conservative Gail Shea in the federal House of Commons, and may be why the Tories are holding their own here. In the more conservative Kings County, in the east, the Liberals and Tories are tied. This is the only part of the province where the Tories won seats last election. If these numbers are true, then it is unlikely the Liberals will be able to sweep the province. And so, the only races to watch will be in Eastern Prince Edward Island it seems.

While they won 4 seats in the last election, the Tories only hold 2 at present. And only one incumbent is running for re-election. That is Olive Crane in Morrel-Mermaid. She won the seat by 15% in 2007, and is likely to hold on to it. Montague-Kilmuir is the only other seat the Tories presently hold. However, MLA Jim Bagnell is retiring. He only won the seat by 134 votes in 2007, and now that is vacant, it will be ripe for the picking. Georgetown-St. Peter's was vacated back in March when its MLA, Mike Currie ran for the federal Tories. He had won the seat by 9% points, and will be high target for the Liberals. And finally, the fourth seat the Tories won in 2007 was Belfast-Murray River. It was won by Tory Premier Pat Binns in 2007, but he resigned the seat later that year, only to have it filled by Liberal Charlie McGeoghegan. The Tories could pick the seat back up however, as they are polling higher than when McGeoghegan won his seat. The Tories may also have a shot at some seats in Prince County, but it is unlikely. Their best shot is Alberton-Roseville where they lost by just 123 votes.

What about the other parties? Well, the NDP has only won one seat ever on the island, in 1996. While they are polling close to where they were in 1996, with just 15 candidates, the party will likely be seen as too disorganized. If you compare the federal election to the provincial ridings however, the NDP could have a shot at Charlottetown-Victoria Park, Charlottetown-Parkdale or Charlottetown-Sherwood, where they won quite a few polls. However, the Green Party leader Sharon Labchuk is running there, and she may cut into the NDP's votes. The NDP leader, James Rodd is running in York-Oyster Bed. In the federal election, the NDP candidate did fairly well in the area, getting as high as 25% in one poll. A well run campaign could give him 20% of the vote.

Projections

Riding	Lib	PC	NDP	Grn	Oth	Projected winner
Alberton-Roseville	51	45	-	3	1	Pat Murphy
Belfast-Murray River	50	45	-	4	1	Charlie McGeoghegan
Borden-Kinkora	67	25	-	8	-	George Webster
Charlottetown-Brighton	68	17	8	7	-	Robert Ghiz
Charlottetown-Lewis Point	67	24	7	2	-	Kathleen Casey
Charlottetown-Parkdale	66	22	10	2	-	Doug Currie
Charlottetown-Sherwood	65	24	8	3	-	Robert Mitchell
Charlottetown-Victoria Park	65	19	7	9	-	Richard Brown
Cornwall-Meadowbank	68	28	-	3	1	Ron MacKinley
Evangeline-Miscouche	56	39	-	4	1	Sonny Gallant
Georgetown-St. Peter's	51	38	8	2	1	Kevin Gotell
Kellys Cross-Cumberland	59	22	10	7	2	Valerie Docherty
Kensington-Malpeque	64	30	6	-	-	Wes Sheridan
Montague-Kilmuir	53	43	-	2	2	Allan Roach
Morell-Mermaid	46	51	-	2	1	Olive Crane
O'Leary-Inverness	62	38	-	-	-	Robert Henderson
Rustico-Emerald	76	21	-	3	-	Carolyn Bertram
Souris-Elmira	58	41	-	-	1	Allan Campbell
Stratford-Kinlock	50	39	7	4	-	Cynthia Dunsford
Summerside-St. Eleanors	54	36	7	3	-	Gerard Greenan
Summerside-Wilmot	57	39	-	3	1	Janice Sherry
Tignish-Palmer Road	55	44	-	-	1	Neil LeClair
Tracadie-Hillsborough Park	65	23	8	3	1	Buck Watts
Tyne Valley-Linkletter	58	42	-	-	-	Paula Biggar
Vernon River-Stratford	55	34	8	3	-	Alan McIsaac
West Royalty-Springvale	61	29	6	4	-	Bush Dumville
York-Oyster Bed	63	23	10	4	-	Robert Vessey

Conclusion

The Liberals should easily win a massive majority. The Tories however, will probably win at least one seat (Morell-Mermaid). Whether or not they can win another is the real question. As of right now, I'd have to say no.