While the Alberta
and PEI provincial election campaigns are well under way, voters in
the Manitoba riding of The Pas are heading to the polls today in a
provincial by-election. The northern Manitoba riding has been vacant
for over 11 months, following the resignation of New Democrat Frank
Whitehead who resigned for health reasons. Whitehead himself was
first elected in a by-election in 2009.
The Pas is
considered a safe riding for the NDP. Whitehead won both of his
elections (2009 by-election and 2011 provincial election) with
three-quarters of the vote. The seat has also been held by the NDP
continuously since 1969. NDP strength in the riding is helped by its
large Aboriginal population, as about two-thirds of the riding's
population is First Nations. Whitehead himself was chief of the
Opaskwayak Cree Nation before being elected.
The Greg
Selinger-led NDP government in Manitoba has had a habit of waiting as
long as possible to call provincial by-elections. The last provincial
by-elections held last year saw the riding of Morris also go vacant
for over 11 months. Legally, the Premier is compelled to call
by-elections within 12 months of a seat becoming vacant, and Selinger
waited as long as possible for both Morris and now The Pas. The fact
that The Pas is considered a safe seat did nothing to speed the
process. To Selinger's credit, he was involved in a challenge to his
leadership race for much of the last year, which concluded with him
narrowly winning a leadership election last month.
Geography
The riding of The Pas is located in Northern Manitoba and is
geographically immense. It runs from the Saskatchewan border in the
west, almost to the Ontario border in the east. In the south, the
riding extends to the northern shores of Lake Winnipeg, and in the
north it goes as far as Cross Lake. The remote Town of The Pas
(pronounced “Paw”) is the
largest community in the riding, located close to the Saskatchewan
border. Most of the population of the riding lives in the western
part of the riding, located close to The Pas. Other communities in
this area include Wanless, Cormorant, Moose Lake, Carrot Valley and
the Opaskwayak Cree Nation. The eastern half of the riding includes
the remote Aboriginal communities of Cross Lake and Norway House.
About a quarter of the
population lives within the Town of The Pas itself.
Demographics
With about two thirds of the riding
being First Nations,
the riding is the second most Aboriginal
riding in Manitoba, and
most
of the Aboriginal population is Cree. While the Town of The Pas and
the surrounding area (Carrot Valley, Clearwater Lake area, Wanless)
is a majority White, Aboriginals still make up a sizable percentage
in the region.
47% of the Town of The Pas is Aboriginal, while the surrounding Rural
Municipality
of Kelsey is 44% Aboriginal. This part of the riding is the only area
with a significant White population. The rest of the riding is
dotted with Cree-majority communities. Much of the White population
in the riding is of British Isles, French and Ukrainian ancestry.
Catholicism and Anglicanism are the main religions. Despite the
French pronunciation of the riding's name, French is not the first
language of very many people in the riding. After
English, Cree is the second most widely-spoken language.
History
The Pas has existed as a riding
since Manitoba's northern boundary was extended northward in 1912.
The NDP and its predecessor the CCF has held the riding for half of
its history. In 1912, a by-election was held held in the newly
annexed territory with Conservative Robert Orok becoming its first
MLA. He held the riding until the Liberals swept into power in 1915.
In 1922, the United Farmers of Manitoba won the provincial election,
and the
leader-less party asked the
seat-less John Bracken to
lead them in the legislature.
At the time, due to its remoteness, The Pas held its elections weeks
after the general election. This allowed Bracken to run for a seat in
the Assembly and be Premier without
having had to run in the general election.
When Bracken resigned to enter federal
politics in
1943, the CCF won the seat in
a by-election. The Liberals took back the riding when they won the
1949 election, and the Tories won it back when they won in 1958. When
the NDP won their first ever election in the province in 1969, they
won The Pas and have held the riding ever since. Since
then, the NDP nearly lost the seat in 1990 and in 1999, but have won
the seat easily the rest of the time.
MLAs:
1)
R.D. Orok, Cons. (1912-1915)
2)
E. Brown, Liberal (1915-1922)
3)
Jn. Bracken, Prog./Liberal-Prog. (1922-1943)
4)
B. Richards, C.C.F./Ind. C.C.F. (1943-1949)
5)
F.L. Jobin, Liberal-Prog. (1949-1958)
6)
J.B. Carroll, Prog. Cons. (1958-1969)
7)
S.R. McBryde, N.D.P. (1969-1977)
8)
H.M. Harapiak, N.D.P. (1977-1990)
9)
Oscar Lathlin, N.D.P. (1990-2008)
10)
F. Whitehead, N.D.P. (2009-2014)
 |
| Source: Elections Manitoba |
Political geography
In both federal and provincial elections, the main political cleavage
in the riding is usually between Aboriginal voters and White voters.
First Nations communities almost always vote NDP on the provincial
level. Federally, some Aboriginal communities occasionally back the
Liberals, as was the case in 1997, 2004 and 2006. The Town of The
Pas usually always backs the NDP, but some of the surrounding
communities are often prone to backing the Tories. In the 2011
provincial election, the Tories won just one poll (near Clearwater
Lake), while every other poll was won by the NDP. In most First
Nations communities the NDP won over 90% of the vote, while they
performed more poorly in Whiter communities. Even in the White
majority communities, the NDP still won a majority of the vote in
every community except for the Clearwater Lake area. The best
community for the NDP was Cross Lake, where they won 96% of the vote.
The Liberals were a non factor in 2011 across the riding, not winning
more than 4% of the vote in any community.
 |
| 2011 provincial election results by community |
Outlook
The NDP has the biggest name of the ballot of the three candidates
running. They are running Amanda Lathlin, the daughter of former MLA
and cabinet minister Oscar Lathlin. She defeated former The Pas mayor
Al McLaughlin for the NDP nomination that was decided by a coin toss
after a tie vote (the disgruntled McLaughlin is considering backing
another party in the race). The Tories are running former Moose Lake
band councillor and social worker Jacob Nasekapow. The Liberals, who
are still in the political wilderness in Manitoba (but seeing a small
resurgence) are running Inez Vystrcil-Spence, the health director for
Manitoba Keewatinkowi Okimakanak. She is being criticized as she is
the only candidate who does not live in the riding. All three
candidates have Cree ancestry. Candidate strength will play a large
factor in who wins the race, as the riding does not always follow
province wide voting trends.
The recent NDP leadership race in Manitoba was hugely divisive, and
may have badly hurt the reputation of the New Democrats, which was
already languishing in the polls. The party had a chance at renewal,
but narrowly (re)-elected Selinger when his popularity among
Manitobans was at an all time low. Could this hurt the NDP in one of
its safest seats? The NDP has had some close calls here in the past.
While the NDP won a majority government in 1999, it almost lost this
seat to the Tories. If First Nations voters don't come out to vote
for the NDP, or switch to the Tories, it could mean a surprise
victory for the PCs, and a huge blow for the NDP. Having said that,
the safe bet is to pick the NDP to win. Owing to the highly contested
nomination race, the NDP has sold a lot of memberships in the riding,
and it is now the riding with the most NDP members in the entire
province (it had the most delegates in the NDP leadership race).
While the riding backed one of Selinger's opponents in the leadership
election, it would still be a huge surprise if the Tories won it.
Another factor in the riding is it had the lowest voter turnout out
of any riding in 2011 (meaning a lot of voters, especially First
Nations voters did note vote). Despite this, the NDP still won the
seat by a large margin. They can afford the kind of depressed turnout
that comes with by-elections. While I still think the NDP will win, I
believe it will be much closer than the landslide that happened in
the provincial election. We'll know for sure when the polls close at
8:00pm tonight (9:00pm Eastern).
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