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| Canadian Election Atlas seat rating |
Voters in four provincial ridings in Quebec are heading to the polls
today to elect new members of the National Assembly. These
by-elections are the first electoral event in the country following
an historic federal election last month which saw the Liberals win a
majority government. The federal Liberals won a majority by making
inroads in Quebec, winning many seats for the first time in 35 years.
The federal and provincial Liberals are technically different
parties, but one cannot be faulted for presuming that the Liberal
brand has greatly improved since Justin Trudeau became federal
Liberal leader.
There have been no provincial polls published in Quebec since August,
so it's difficult to predict exactly what will happen in today's
by-elections. The last CROP poll from August had the governing
Liberals at 33% (down 9 points since the 2014 election), the
separatist Parti Quebecois (PQ) at 29% (up four points), the right of
centre Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) at 23% (same as 2014) and the
left wing Quebec Solidaire (QS) at 13% (up 5 points). The Liberals
have been suffering due to unpopular austerity measures, while the PQ
is – or was enjoying a small boost from last Spring's election of
their new leader, Pierre Karl Peladeau. My guess is following the
federal election, the Liberals have likely recovered much of this
drop, and this recovery is likely going to come from their nearest
ideological rivals, the CAQ.
Three
of the four by-elections today are in safe seats. The Liberals are
likely to win the Laval riding of Fabre,
which they have held since 2003 and the Montreal riding of
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne,
which they have held continuously since 1981. The PQ is likely to win
the Côte-Nord riding of
René-Lévesque, which
they have held since 2003. The most interesting race will be in the
riding of Beauce-Sud,
located on the U.S. border south of Quebec City. This riding is
located in the conservative leaning Chaudière-Appalaches region, and
is a natural “CAQ riding”. Except, the Liberals won the riding by
12 points in 2014, and have won every election in the riding since
1979, except for when the CAQ's predecessor, the ADQ won it in 2007.
Beauce-Sud
The
riding of Beauce-Sud was vacated in September, when its long-time
Liberal MNA Robert Dutil resigned his seat after he accepted a
position as Senior Vice President for Canam-Ponts. Dutil held the
seat from 1984 to 1994 and again since 2008. He
had been a cabinet minister for the Jean Charest government, serving
as Minister of Revenue from 2008 to 2010 and Minister of Public
Security from 2010 to 2012.
Geography
Beauce-Sud is centred on the city
of Saint-Georges in eastern Quebec, south of Quebec City in
the Chaudière-Appalaches
region.
The riding is bounded on the east by the U.S. state of Maine, on the
south by Quebec's Eastern Townships, and
on the north and west by other ridings in the Chaudière-Appalaches
region.
The Chaudière River bifurcates
the riding, running from south to north, passing
through Saint-Georges on the
way. Other communities in
the riding include Saint-Éphrem-de-Beauce,
La Guadeloupe, Saint-Gédéon-de-Beauce,
Saint-Côme--Linière
and Saint-Prosper.
Demographics
Demographically, the riding is very
homogenous. It is overwhelmingly Francophone, with nearly
99% of its inhabitants having that language as their mother tongue
and it is overwhelmingly White, with 98% of inhabitants being neither
a visible minority nor Aboriginal. In terms of ethnicity, most
inhabitants identify as Canadian or French Canadian. The riding is
also overwhelmingly Catholic, with 93% of the population being
of that faith. The riding is
less well off than the province as a whole. The median income is
$25,000 (provincial median is $28,000) while the average income is
$31,000 (provincial average is $36,000).
History
The
political uniqueness of the Beauce region has led it to vote for a
number of minor parties in its existence, such as Action liberale
nationale in 1935, Bloc populaire canadien in 1944, Ralliement
créditiste du Québec in 1970 and 1973 and the Parti national
populaire in 1976.
While the Liberals won the seat by a comfortable margin in 2014,
previous elections saw more close races between them and the CAQ, and
its predecessor, the ADQ. In 2012, Dutil won the riding by just 650
votes over his CAQ opponent and in 2008, he won the riding by just
570 votes over his ADQ opponent, Claude Morin, who had won the seat
by a comfortable 9000 vote margin in 2007, when the ADQ had formed
the official opposition. 2003 was also a close race, when Liberal
Diane Leblanc won the seat by 1300 votes over her ADQ opponent.
List
of MNAs:
Beauce
(1867-1973)
C.H. Pozer, Liberal (1867-1874)
F.-X. Dulac, Cons. (1874-1878)
Jos. Poirier, Liberal (1878-1881)
J.G.P. Blanchet, Cons. (1881-1892)
Jos.
Poirier, Cons. (1892-1897) 2nd
time
H.S.
Béland, Liberal (1897-1902)
A.
Godbout, Liberal (1902-1921)
J.H.
Fortier, Liberal (1921-1929)
J.-É. Fortin, Liberal (1929-1935)
Vital Cliche, A.L.N. (1935-1936)
Raoul Poulin, U.N. (1936)
J.-É. Perron, U.N. (1937-1939)
H.-R. Renault, Liberal (1939-1944)
É. Lacroix, B.P.C. (1944-1945)
G.-O. Poulin, U.N. (1945-1960)
Fabien Poulin, Liberal (1960-1962)
P.-É. Allard, U.N. (1962-1970)
Fabien Roy, R.C.Q. (1970-1973)
Beauce-Sud (1973-present)
Fabien
Roy. R.C.Q. (1973-1975); P.N.P (1975-1979) continued
Hermann
Mathieu, Liberal (1979-1985)
Rbt. Dutil, Liberal (1985-1994)
P.-E. Quirion, Liberal (1994-1996)
Ms. Diane Leblanc, Liberal (1997-2007)
Claude Morin, A.D.Q. (2007-2008)
Rbt.
Dutil, Liberal (2008-2015) 2nd
time
Political geography
In the last few elections, the CAQ/ADQ has been the strongest in the
central and northern parts of the riding, while the Liberals have
been the strongest in the west. The city of Saint-Georges, which
makes up about half of the population of the riding is usually evenly
split between the Liberals and their conservative-leaning opponents.
In the 2014 election, Liberal support was the strongest in the more
rural parts of the riding, especially in the municipalities in the
western part of the district. They broke 60% of the vote in two
municipalities in western Beauce-Sud: in Sainte-Colthide-de-Beauce
and in Lac-Poulin. CAQ support was concentrated in Saint-Georges and
adjacent municipalities. The CAQ barely won the riding's largest
city, and likely lost it if you account for the advance votes. The
best municipality for the CAQ was Saint-Philibert, an eastern suburb
of Saint-Georges, where they won 48% of the election day vote. None
of the other parties won any polls in the riding. The PQ's best
municipality was Saint-Ludger, located at the southern point of the
riding, where they won 13%. Quebec Solidaire's best municipality was
Saint-Hilaire-de-Dorset (also in the south of the riding) where they
won 8% of the vote.
Federally, most of this riding is located in the electoral district
of Beauce, which just re-elected Conservative MP Maxime Bernier last
month. The riding is considered the most Conservative in the
province, and has gone Conservative since 2006.
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| 2014 results by municipality |
Outlook
The
Liberals are running Saint-Benoît-Labre
native Paul Busque, a managing director at Saint-Georges GM as their
candidate. The candidate with the best chance of beating Busque is
Tom Redmond, who is running for the CAQ. He is a city councillor in
Saint-Georges. The PQ candidate, Renaud Fortier is also a
Saint-Georges city councillor. Quebec solidaire is running their 2014
candidate, pharmacist Diane Vincent.
Despite
the riding being so homogeneously Francophone, it is far from a
nationalist riding. It voted “NO” in both referendums, and the PQ
has never won the seat. The PQ has not even finished second here
since 1998. In conservative and federalist Beauce, the clear race is
between Busque, the Liberal candidate and Redmond, the CAQ candidate.
Following the Liberal surge in the federal election, it is quite
possible that the Liberals will likely hold on to this seat in the
National Assembly.
Fabre
Fabre was vacated in August when its MNA, Liberal Gilles Ouimet
stepped down to spend more time with his family. Ouimet was a
backbench MP, and had represented the riding since just 2012.
Geography
The riding of
Fabre covers the western 1/6th of the city of Laval, a large suburb
north of Montreal. Laval consists of the entirety of the Île Jésus
and surrounding islands, and was the product of an amalgamation of a
number of smaller communities in 1965. Due to Laval's large
geographical size, many of these communities still retain much of
their character despite rapid suburbanization of the island. Fabre
contains the former municipalities of Laval-Ouest, Laval-sur-le-Lac
and Îles
Laval, plus large parts of Fabreville and Sainte-Dorothée plus a
small part of Chomedey (the Saint-Martin area).
Most
of the population lives on either the south or the north coasts of
the riding. A majority of the population lives on the south coast,
which is dominated by Sainte-Dorothée. The north coast is made up of
the communities of Laval-Ouest and Fabreville. The area between the
two coasts is primarily made up of farm land, woods and golf courses.
Demographics
Over
two-thirds of the population in
Fabre
are Francophones, with 69% of the population having French as their
first language. 10% of the population are Anglophones, while 29% of
the riding are Allophones (mother tongue is neither English nor
French). The main non-official languages spoken in the riding are
Arabic and Greek. 79% of the riding is White, with most of the rest
being Arab (6%), Black (4%), South Asian (2%), Southeast Asian (2%)
and Latin American (2%). A majority of the population identifies as
either French or Canadian. There are also large groups of people
identifying as either Irish, Greek or Italian. 60% of the riding is
Catholic, while 11% is Christian Orthodox. The main non-Christian
faith is Islam, with 12% being Muslim. 11% of the riding has no
religious affiliation. Fabre is slightly wealthier than the province
as a whole. The median income is $34,000 while the average income is
$43,000.
History
Thanks
to its large Allophone population, Fabre has usually voted Liberal in
its history. In PQ held the riding in the early 1980s and for nearly
a decade between 1994 and 2003. Since then, the Liberals have held
the seat, usually defeating the Péquistes
by three or four thousand votes. In 2007, the ADQ came close to
winning the riding, with the Liberals only winning the seat by 1200
votes. In the 1995 sovereignty referendum, the “Yes” side did
win, though it was close (51%-49%).
While
the riding of Fabre has existed since 1966, it has only covered the
western end of Laval since 1981. Before then, the region was part of
the riding of Laval.
List of MNAs:
Laval
(1867-1981)
J.-H. Bellerose, Cons. (1867-1875)
L.-O. Loranger, Cons. (1875-1882)
P.-É.
Leblanc, Cons. (1882-1883)
Amédée Gaboury, Liberal (1883-1884)
P.-É.
Leblanc, Cons. (1884-1908) 2nd
time
J.W. Levesque, Liberal (1908-1919)
J.-O. Renaud, Cons. (1919-1931)
Jos. Filion, Liberal (1931-1935)
F.-J.
Leduc, Cons. (1935-1936); U.N. (1936-1939); Liberal (1939-1948)
Omer
Barrière, U.N. (1948-1956)
L. Pouliot, U.N. (1956-1960)
J.-N. Lavoie, Liberal (1960-1981)
Fabre (1981-present)
Michel Leduc, P.Q. (1981-1985)
J.-A. Joly, Liberal (1985-1994)
Jos. Facal, P.Q. (1994-2003)
Ms. Michelle Courchesne, Liberal (2003-2012)
Gilles Ouimet, Liberal (2012-2015)
Political geography
Recent elections have revealed a geographic dichotomy in the riding,
with the more French Canadian northern part of the riding backing the
PQ and the CAQ, with the more diverse southern part of the riding
(especially Sainte-Dorothée) strongly backing the Liberals.
This dichotomy was less prevalent in the 2014 election, as the
Liberals won every neighbourhood in the riding. However, they were
the weakest in Laval-Ouest, where they won just 37% of the vote. The
Liberals continued to win big on the south coast of the island,
winning over 60% of the vote in Sainte-Dorothéee, Saint-Martin
(Chomedey) and Laval-sur-le-Lac. The PQ was strongest in Îles Laval
where they won 29% of the vote, while the CAQ was strongest in
Fabreville, where they won 25% of the election day vote (ahead of the
PQ). Quebec Solidaire was strongest in Laval-Ouest, where they won
just 9%. QS did not win any polls.
Federally, most of Fabre is located in the riding
of Laval—Les Îles, which just voted Liberal last month. The NDP
had won it in 2011, but the Liberals held the riding before that,
since 1993.
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| 2014 results by neighbourhood |
Outlook
The
Liberals are running local businesswoman and president of the Réseau
des carrefours jeunesse-emploi du Québec, Monique
Sauvé in this seat. The PQ is running Jibril Akaaboune Le François,
a civil servant. The CAQ is running teacher Carla El-Ghandour. UQAM
student Charles Lemieux is running for Quebec Solidaire.
The
PQ has only ever
won Fabre when they have received at least 41% of the province-wide
vote. Considering the last CROP poll put the PQ at 29% province-wide,
it is very unlikely the PQ will win this seat. For the CAQ, they only
came close to winning the riding when they won 31% of province-wide
vote in 2007 (as the ADQ), so they are unlikely to win it as well. I
am very confident the Liberals should easily retain this seat.
René-Lévesque
The riding of René-Lévesque (formerly known as Saguenay) has been
vacant since September, when its MNA, Péquiste Marjolain Dufour
resigned, citing health reasons. He had represented the riding since
2003.
Geography
René-Lévesque is located in Quebec's Côte-Nord region, northeast
of Quebec City. The riding is centred on the city of Baie-Comeau,
where close to a majority of the population live. Almost the entire
population of the riding lives on the south coast of the riding,
along the Saint Lawrence River, running from the Saguenary River in
the west to Baie-Trinité in the east. From the Saint Lawrence in the
south, the riding extends deep into the sparsely populated Quebec
interior northward, until it hits the circular Manicouagan Reservoir,
which is about where the northern boundary is. In addition to
Baie-Comeau, the riding's other main communities include
Chute-aux-Outardes, Pessamit (Betsiamites), Forestville, Les
Escoumins, Pointe-aux-Outardes, Pointe-Lebel, Ragueneau and
Sacré-Coeur.
Demographics
Most of the riding is Francophone, with 94% having French as their
first language. Most of the rest (5%) speaks Innu as their first
language. In fact, 10% of population is of First Nation ancestry (the
riding is home to two reserves, Pessamit and Essipit). Outside of
this mostly Innu population, the riding is fairly homogenous. Almost
the entirety of the rest of the riding is is White, most of whom are
of French Canadian ancestry. 94% of the riding is Catholic, with most
of the remainder belonging to no religion. In terms of income, the
riding closely matches the province-wide numbers, with the median
income being at $28,000 and the average at $36,000.
History
For much of its history, René-Lévesque has been a PQ stronghold. It
was one of the only ridings to vote PQ in 1970, the first election
the party ran in. The PQ held the seat until losing it in a
by-election in 1983. The Liberals managed to keep the seat, winning
close elections in 1985 and 1989, before losing it in 1994. The PQ
easily won the seat in 1994 and 1998, and in the interim, the riding
saw the strongest result for the “Yes” side out of all ridings in
the 1995 sovereignty referendum. 73% of voters in the riding had
voted to separate from Canada. The ADQ won the seat in a 2002
by-election, which was a surprise victory, as it was only the second
seat the party had ever won at that point. However, the ADQ only held
it for a year, as the PQ took it back in the 2003 general election.
Since then, the PQ has continued to win the seat by comfortable
margins, and always receiving between 50 and 60% of the vote. The ADQ
and the CAQ have never been able to come close to winning the seat
again, not even in 2007 which is the only election where they were
elected as the main opposition party. Since 2008, the Liberals have
been the second place party in the riding, but far behind the PQ.
List of MNAs:
Chicoutimi-Saguenay (1867-1912)
P.-A. Tremblay, Ind. (1867-1871); Liberal (1871-1874)
M.G. Baby, Cons. (1874-1875)
W.E. Price, Cons. (1875-1880)
J.-
É. Beaudet, Cons. (1880-1881)
Élie
Saint-Hiliare, Ind. Cons. (1881-1888)
Séverin
Dumais, Parti national (Liberal) (1888-1890)
Onésime
Côté, Parti national
(Liberal) (1890-1892)
Honoré
Petit, Cons. (1892-1912)
Charlevoix-Saguenay (1912-1948)
Pierre D'Auteuil, Cons. (1912-1919)
P. Dufour, Liberal (1919-1927)
J.U.E. Rochette, Liberal (1927-1936)
A. Leclerc, U.N. (1936-1939)
J.U.E.
Rochette, Liberal (1939-1944) 2nd
time
A. Leclerc, U.N. (1944-1948)
Saguenay (1948-2003)
Pierre Ouellet, U.N. (1948-1960)
Lucien Bélanger, Liberal (1960-1962)
Rodrigue Thibault, Liberal (1962-1963)
P.-W. Maltais, Liberal (1964-1970)
Lucien Lessard, P.Q. (1970-1982)
Ghislain Maltais, Liberal (1983-1994)
G.-Y. Gagnon, P.Q. (1994-2001)
François Corriveau, A.D.Q. (2002-2003)
René
Lévesque (2003-present)
Marjolain
Dufour, P.Q. (2003-2015)
Political
geography
Except for four small areas, the PQ normally wins everything in the
riding. The only part of the riding that has consistently voted
Liberal in recent elections is the Pessimit Indian Reserve southwest
of Baie-Comeau. The Liberals also usually win the tiny Essipit
Reserve which is located further up the Saint Lawrence in the
southwest of the riding. The Liberals have also twice won at least
one poll in Sacré-Coeur (also in the southwest) and in the east end
of Baie-Comeau.
In
2014, the PQ won every municipality in the riding, except for the two
Indian Reserves. Their strongest municipality was Chute-aux-Outardes,
a suburb of Baie-Comeau, where they won 71% of the vote. Their next
best area was the vast Rivière-aux-Outardes unorganized territory,
which geographically makes up almost the entire riding, except for
the southwest and the coast. The Liberals won the two Indian
reserves, winning Pessamit with 50% of the vote and Essipit with 38%.
Essipit was the strongest community for the CAQ, where they won 27%
of the vote, which was still in third place. The best result for
Quebec Solidaire was in Tadoussac, where they won 13% of the vote.
Neither the CAQ nor the QS won any polls.
Federally this riding is located in the electoral district of
Manicouagan, which voted for the Bloc last month after having voted
for the NDP in 2011. Prior to 2011, Manicouagan had voted for the
Bloc in every election since 1993.
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| 2014 results by municipality |
Outlook
The
PQ is running the director general of the Société d'aide au
développement de la collectivité de la Manicouagan, Martin Ouellet
as their candidate in this riding. The Liberals are running
Baie-Comeau city councillor Karine Otis to oppose Ouellet. The CAQ
candidate is Dave Savard, a philosophy teacher at a local CEGEP, who
lost the federal Liberal nomination in Manicouagan. Retired teacher
Claire du Sablon will be the Quebec Solidaire candidate.
In its history, this
riding has produced two unexpected by-election results, when the
Liberals won it in 1983 and when the ADQ won it in 2002. Perhaps
another surprise win is in the books, but I do not believe this to be
very likely (if it does happen, it will likely be the Liberals). This
area just eschewed the Liberal wave in the federal election, so I do
not see them backing the Liberals at this point in time. The most
sovereigntist riding in the province should still vote PQ.
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne
has been a vacant seat since August, when its MNA, Liberal Marguerite
Blais resigned, following the death of her husband. Blais had served
in the cabinet of Jean Charest as Minister of Senior Citizens. She
had represented the district since 2007.
Geography
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne is located in central Montreal, southwest
of the Downtown. It consists of all of the Le Sud-Ouest borough and a
small part of the Ville-Marie borough. The riding hugs the Lachine
Canal, running from Parc Angrignon in the south to around Autoroute
10 in the north. Its northwestern boundary closely follows Autoroute
20, while its southeastern boundary follows the Canal de l'Aqueduc
and Autoroute 15. The riding contains a number of historic Montreal
neighbourhoods like Griffintown, Little Burgundy, Saint-Henri,
Pointe-Saint-Charles, Côte-Saint-Paul and Ville-Émard.
Demographics
The riding is one of the more diverse in the province. A bare
majority of the riding (56%) is Francophone, 25% are Allophones and
19% are Anglophones. After French and English, the main native
languages in the riding are Spanish, Chinese, Arabic, Italian and
Bengali. In terms of race, nearly three quarters (72% )of the riding
is White. Due to the riding being home to Montreal's historically
Black neighbourhood of Little Burgundy, Blacks are the largest
minority group in the riding, making up 7% of the population. There
are also large numbers of Chinese, South Asians, Arabs, Latin
Americans and Filipinos. After French Canadian, the main ethnic
groups in the riding are Irish, Italian, English and Scottish.
Catholics make up 53% of the population, while Christians as a whole
make up 64%. Islam is the largest non Christian religion, with 8% of
the riding being Muslim. The riding also has a high irreligious
population at 24%. The riding is poorer than the province as a whole,
with the median income being $23,000 and the average income being
$34,000.
History
The riding was created in 1994 when the ridings of Saint-Henri (which
was made up of Saint-Henri, Côte-Saint-Paul and Ville-Émard) and
Sainte-Anne (which was made up of Griffintown, Little Burgundy and
Pointe-Saint-Charles, plus part of Verdun) was merged. Both ridings
had gone Liberal continuously since 1981, and have also gone Liberal
ever since being merged together. Both ridings went PQ in 1976, the
only time the riding has ever voted for the PQ.
While the riding hasn't gone PQ since 1976, there have been some
close races since. In the riding's first election after it merged in
1994, the Liberals only won the seat by 641 votes over the PQ. The
1995 referendum was also close, with the “No” side winning 53% to
47%. Since then, the Liberals have won the seat in every election by
a margin of two to three thousand, except for in 2003, when they won
by over 6000 votes and in 2014, when they won by over 11000 votes.
List
of MNAs:
<Sainte-Anne>
Montréal-Centre
(1867-1890)
E.B. Carter, Cons. (1867-1871)
L.H. Holton, Liberal (1871-1874)
Chas. Alexander, Liberal (1874-1875)
A.W. Ogilvie, Cons. (1875-1878)
H.A. Nelson, Liberal (1878-1881)
G.W.
Stephens Sr., Liberal (1881-1886)
Jas. McShane, Liberal (1886-1890)
Montréal
Division No. 6 (1890-1912)
Jas.
McShane, Liberal (1890-1892) continued
P. Kennedy, Cons. (1892-1895)
J.J.E. Guerin, Liberal (1895-1904)
M.J. Walsh, Liberal (1904-1908)
Denis Tansey, Cons. (1908)
M.J.
Walsh, Liberal (1908-1912) 2nd
time
Montréal–Sainte-Anne
(1912-1966)
Denis
Tansey, Cons. (1912-1919) 2nd
time
B.-A. Conroy, Liberal (1919-1923)
W.J. Hushion, Liberal (1923-1924)
J.H. Dillon, Liberal (1924-1935)
F.L. Connors, Liberal (1935-1942)
Thos.
Guerin, Liberal (1942-1948)
F. Hanley, Ind. (1948-1966)
Sainte-Anne (1966-1970)
F.
Hanley, Ind. (1966-1970) continued
G.P.G. Springate, Liberal (1970-1976)
J.-M. Lacoste, P.Q. (1976-1981)
M. Polak, Liberal (1981-1989)
Normand Cherry, Liberal (1989-1994)
<Saint-Henri>
Hochelaga
(1867-1912)
Louis Beaubien, Cons. (1867-1886)
J.-O. Villeneuve, Cons. (1886-1887)
Chas. Champagne, Liberal (1888-1890)
J.-O. Villeneuve, Cons. (1890-1897)
D.-J.
Décaire,
Liberal (1897-1904)
J.-L. Décaire, Liberal (1904-1912)
Montréal-Hochelaga (1912-1923)
Séverin Letourneau, Liberal (1912-1919)
J.-H. Bédard, Liberal (1919-1923)
Montréal–Saint-Henri
(1923-1966)
J.A. Bray, Cons (1923-1927)
A. Leduc, Liberal (1927-1931)
J.-M. Gabias, Liberal (1931-1935)
W.-E. Laurailt, A.L.N. (1935-1936)
René Labelle, U.N. (1936-1939)
Émile
Boucher, Liberal (1939-1944)
J.-H. Delisle, U.N. (1944-1952)
P. Lalonde, Liberal (1952-1966)
Saint-Henri (1966-1994)
C. Martellani, U.N. (1966-1970)
Gérard Shanks, Liberal (1970-1976)
Jacques Couture, P.Q. (1976-1981)
Roma Hains, Liberal (1981-1989)
Ms.
Nicole Loiselle, Liberal (1989-1994)
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne
(1994-present)
Ms.
Nicole Loiselle, Liberal (1994-2007) continued
Ms. Marguerite Blais, Liberal (2007-2015)
Political geography
In both 2008 and 2012, the Liberals have been able to win the seat by
winning large margins in the more diverse north end of the riding,
specifically in Little Burgundy and Griffintown. The rest of the
riding is more of a mix between the PQ and the Liberals, with the PQ
being the strongest in Saint-Henri, Côte-Saint-Paul and Ville-Émard.
In 2014, the large margin in which the Liberals won the seat meant
that they had swept nearly every poll in the riding, including
winning all the polls in Saint-Henri. The PQ was left with a handful
of polls in the south, in Côte-Saint-Paul and Ville-Émard. The
Liberals were especially strong in Little Burgundy, where they won
74% of the vote. Their next best neighbourhood was next-door
Griffintown where they won 65% of the vote. The PQ's best
neighbourhood was Côte-Saint-Paul, where they won 29% of the vote.
Côte-Saint-Paul was also the best neighbourhood for the CAQ, winning
15% of the vote there. And Quebec Solidaire won 16% of the vote in
Saint-Henri (finishing ahead of the CAQ), which was their best
neighbourhood. Neither the QS or the CAQ won any polls.
 |
| 2014 results by neighbourhood |
Outlook
The
Liberal candidate here is Dominique Anglade, who is the former
president of the CAQ. She announced in September that she had left
the party, saying it no longer represented her views. Anglade had
previously run for the CAQ. in Fabre in 2012. Anglade is an engineer
by training and the daughter
of Haitian immigrants. Running against Anglade for the PQ is health
director Gabrielle Lemieux. The CAQ is running Dawson College student
Louis-Philippe Boulanger and
Quebec Solidaire
is running lawyer Marie-Eve
Rancourt.
Considering
the PQ hasn't won in this riding since 1976, it is unlikely they will
do so in this by-election. I expect the Liberals to easily retain the
seat.
Conclusion
Whenever we have
a day with a lot of by-elections, there is always talk about “wins”
and “losses” for each party. For the Liberals, they need to
retain their three seats for this to be a “win”. A loss for them
would be losing Beauce-Sud to the CAQ, even if they retain their
other two seats. For the PQ, they are unlikely to gain any seats
tonight, so they need to keep their one riding, and make vote share
gains in the other three ridings for this to be a win for them. A
close result (or a loss) in René-Lévesque would mean a very bad
night for the PQ. For the CAQ, winning Beauce-Sud would mean a huge
night for them, especially considering how terrible the
last
by-election night was (when they lost Chauveau to the Liberals in
June). A loss for them would be not even being competitive there. And
finally for Quebec Solidaire,
they have nothing to really gain (and
nothing to lose) in
these by-elections. A win for them would be just increasing their
vote share. Not doing so would be a big lose for them, considering
their recent poll numbers.
We'll
find out the winners and losers when the polls close at 8pm.
