Hidden amongst the British Columbia
election coverage is another election of significance on the other
side of the country. The federal riding of Labrador, voters will be
going to the polls today to elect a new MP (or to re-elect the same
one). You see, back in March the sitting MP and Minister of
Intergovernmental Affairs, Conservative Peter Penashue, resigned his
seat due to conflict of interest allegations and election campaign
irregularities associated with his election in 2011. However,
Penashue resigned under the condition he could run again, so he could
win the seat fair and square.
 |
| Map of Labrador showing municipalities and unincorporated communities and unorganized areas. |
The 2011 election Labrador was one of
the closest races in the country. Penashue defeated the sitting
incumbent, Liberal Todd Russell by just 74 votes. Penashue's
election was a huge surprise, considering the fact that Labrador was
one of the safest Liberal seats in the country. It had only elected a
Tory once (in 1968) since Newfoundland joined confederation in 1949.
Plus, the Russell had won the seat in 2008 with 70% of the vote,
while the Tory candidate finished third with just 8%. Penashue's
election thus came with a swing of a massive 31.5% from the Liberals
to Conservatives.
At just 27,000 people, Labrador is the
least populated riding in Canada. It is even less populated then any
of Canada's three territories. Its existence as a riding is protected
by extraordinary circumstances clause in the redistribution act which
allows for ridings to exceed provincial averages if it is deemed as
an extraordinary riding. Labrador is seen as a cohesive unit in of
itself, and is very isolated from the rest of the province of
Newfoundland and Labrador. However, the riding was not always deemed
extraordinary. It has only existed as a riding consisting of itself
since 1988. Before that it was lumped with part of the Island of
Newfoundland and was known as “Grand Falls—White Bay—Labrador”
from 1953 to 1988. Before that, the word “Labrador” wasn't even
in the riding name, and the riding was named just “Grand
Falls—White Bay”.
Former Members of Parliament:
- T.G.W. Ashbourne, Liberal (1949-1958)
- C.R.M. Granger, Liberal (1958-1966)
- Andrew Chatwood, Liberal (1966-1968)
- A.H. Peddle, Prog. Cons. (1968-1972)
- W.H. Rompkey, Liberal (1972-1996)
- L.D. O'Brien, Liberal (1996-2005)
- T.N. Russell, Liberal (2005-2011)
- Peter Penashue, Conservative (2011-2013)
For
most of its history, the riding has mostly experienced Liberal
blowouts (1949, 1953, 1957, 1958, 1962, 1963, 1966, 1974, 1980, 1993,
2000, 2004 and 2008) and the occasionally semi competitive races that
turned out to be fool's gold for the Tories (1972, 1984, 1988, 1996
by-election with the Reform Party, 2005 by-election and 2006). The
NDP has had some history in this riding to, due to the mining
industry in Labrador City. The party nearly won the seat in 1979, and
had a strong campaign in 1997. The NDP has held the riding of
Labrador West provincially in the past.
Political geography
Despite its
remoteness, Labrador is a rather diverse riding. Along the south
coast on the Strait of Belle Isle, there are a number of Anglo-Irish
fishing villages that are more similar to the rest of Newfoundland
than the rest of Labrador. Further north along the coast you have
more fishing villages, but the people there are a mix of Metis, Inuit
and Anglo descent. Then you have the two largest cities in Labrador;
the mining city of Labrador City in the far west (and its suburb of
Wabush) and the more military oriented city of Happy Valley-Goose Bay
(home to CFB Goose Bay). North of Happy Valley Goose Bay is the Innu
village of Sheshatshiu where Penashue is from. Sheshatshiu is one of
two Innu villages in the riding, the other is Natuashish, and is
located on the coast, further north. Finally, northeastern Labrador
is home of the Inuit territory of Nunatsiavut, which is a self
governing autonomous area made up of five Inuit villages.
One of the most
Liberal parts of the county is the Southern and Eastern Labrador
coast where the Liberals often get results of more than 90% of the
vote in many polls. I have a feeling that in the past that some polls
have had results of 100% for the Liberals, but were merged with other
polls to protect voter secrecy. While the south and east coasts are
made up of extremely partisan Liberals, other parts of the riding are
very non-partisan. This is especially true for the Inuit and Innu.
These groups tend to support the candidate over the party (and it's
not just Labrador where they do this). Penashue, an Innu, can thank
his 74 vote victory to massive margins in the two Innu villages of
the riding. Without them, he would have lost. Voters in Labrador
City and Happy Valley-Goose Bay also tend to back the candidate over
the party. Neither region has uniformly voted Liberal the way the
coastal villages have. When the Tories have run good campaigns in the
riding, it is usually in these two cities where they find much
support.
Let's take a look
at the poll maps since 2004 for a better look of the riding's
political geography:
2004
2004 was a
landslide victory for the Liberals in Labrador. The party won every
single poll in the riding, which is not abnormal for the riding.
Incumbent MP Lawrence O'Brien won 62% of the vote, compared to the
Conservative candidate, Merrill Strachan who won 10% of the vote.
Former New Democrat Ern Condon ran as an independent, but
representing the “Labrador Party” and finished ahead of the NDP
at 10%. The NDP candidate Shawn Crann won just under 10% and the
Greens won 2%. O'Brien's strongest area was the traditionally Liberal
east and south coast of Labrador. His best poll came in the village
of Lodge Bay in this region where he won 34 of 35 votes. His weakest
region was in West Labrador, where the Tories, NDP and Condon all had
strong showings. But the split of the vote between Strachan, Condon
and Crann meant that O'Brien still won all the polls there. His worst
showing was poll 27 in Wabush, which is in the west part of town on
Jean Lake. He still won 33% of the vote there. Condon finished 2nd
there with 28% of the vote.
2005 by-election
O'Brien passed
away in December 2004, resulting in a by-election in May 2005 (there
was also a by-election in 1996 which first elected O'Brien, meaning
there will have been 3 by-elections in just 17 years!). It was the
first by-election of Paul Martin's fragile minority government, and
would be very important in terms of the balance of power in
Parliament. Therefore, the Tories poured a lot of effort into the
riding in hopes they would win it. However, most observers thought it
was a hopeless cause because of the riding's Liberal history. The
Tories ended up losing the election, with 32% of the vote, but it
would be their best showing since 1988. Liberal candidate, Todd
Russell, President of the Labrador Metis Nation won with 51%. It was
the worst showing for the Liberals since 1997. Russell saw his best
showing on the east coast as usual, especially in the Metis dominated
fishing villages. West Labrador was again the Liberal's worst area,
and this time they lost nearly all the polls in the region. The
Conservative candidate in the riding was Graham Letto, who was the
mayor of Labrador City at the time. This really helped him win the
region, but was not enough to help him outside. He only won 5 polls
outside of the Labrador City-Wabush area. One of these polls however
was the best poll for Letto, poll 34 in Happy Valley-Goose Bay. This
poll is located on CFB Goose Bay. Russell's top poll was the Metis
village of Port Hope Simpson, a poll which also included the smaller
village of William's Harbour, where Russell was born.
2006
With their
impressive showing in the 2005 by-election, the Tories kept up the
pressure in 2006 with another strong campaign. They ran a star
candidate in Joe Goudie, a former provincial cabinet minister, and
another high profile Metis to go up against Russell. Russell however
beat Goudie, but in a closer race than the by-election. Russell
maintained his 51% share of the vote, but Goudie made inroads on the
Tory by-election result, by getting the party up to 40%. Goudie was
able to get this number by making in roads in the Happy Valley-Goose
Bay area, where he was from. However, the Tories continue to do the
best in West Labrador where they won all but two polls. However,
Goudie lost all of the northern Aboriginal communities and the
communities on the east and south coast which was the best area for
the Liberals again. The village of Pinsent Arm in this region gave
Russell his best poll, where he secured 40 of 42 votes. The strongest
poll for Goudie was in in poll 34 in Happy Valley-Goose Bay, the same
poll where the Tories saw their strongest showing in the by-election.
2008
By 2008, the
Tories had given up on trying to win Labrador, as the riding reverted
to its landslide-Liberal status. Russell won his largest share of the
vote in his career, getting 70%. The Conservatives could not find a
local candidate to run, and so had to pick an Office Assistant from
St. John's to run. The NDP would end up finishing 2nd in
the race, despite them also running a candidate from St. John's. Even
so, the NDP won 18% of the vote as the default anti-Liberal party in
a region that hated the Tories thanks to Premier Danny Williams' ABC
(Anything But Conservative) campaign. It would be the NDP's best
showing in Labrador since 1997, and the Conservative's worst showing
(8%) since that same election. Once again, the Liberals would win
every single poll in the riding. Similar voting patterns persisted
with the Liberals doing the best in the east, and worst in the west.
However, the Liberals would score a majority of the vote in all but 2
polls (both in Labrador City). Their worst showing was in poll 23 in
the south end of town on the western end of Little Wabush Lake.
Russell won 44% of the vote. The NDP finished 2nd there,
losing the poll by 5 votes. The strongest Liberal poll was in Lodge
Bay again where Russell secured 37 of 38 votes. Lodge Bay was also
the best poll for the Liberals the last time they won every poll in
the riding in 2004.
2011
2011 threw a
wrench in the normal voting patterns of Labrador. The race would end
up being the closest in the riding's history. Innu businessman Peter
Penashue won the seat for the Conservatives for the first time since
1968. He won the seat with 39.8% of the vote to Russell's 39.1%. It
would be the worst showing ever for the Liberals in the riding. The
NDP also had a strong performance running school principal Jake
Larkin. He won 20% of the vote, the party's best showing since 1997.
Also, the NDP won a number of polls, the first time they would win a
poll since 1997. Liberal support was relegated to their traditional
base in the riding, in the east and south coasts. Outside this
region, they had only won 5 polls. Conservative support was strongest
in the Inuit and Innu communities in the northern part of the riding.
Also key to Penashue's victory was winning all but 4 polls in the
Happy Valley-Goose Bay area. The NDP were only present in West
Labrador, where they won all but seven polls, and tied in two of
those seven. The strongest poll for the Conservatives was Penashue's
home town of Sheshasheits where he won 89% of the vote. The strongest
Liberal poll this time was the Metis village of Charlottetown on the
east coast where Russell won 86% of the vote. The NDP's strongest
poll was poll 14 in central Labrador City (between Stirling Cres and
Field St) where they won 47% of the vote.
Demographic maps
Last Wednesday,
Statistics Canada released the first wave of results of the 2011
National Household Survey (NHS), also known as the “long form
census”. Among the data released was religion and ethnicity, and I
figured those two categories would be the most interesting in terms
of mapping Labrador. It should be noted that the NHS was not
mandatory like in previous censuses, so there are concerns about the
accuracy of the data. In fact, some communities had such a low
response rate, that their data was not even released by Statistics
Canada. In Labrador, these communities include Division No. 10, Subd.
D (Churchill Falls), L'Anse au Loup, Wabush and West St. Modeste.
Ethnicity
As mentioned,
Labrador is a rather ethnically diverse riding. The south coast,
along the Strait of Belle Isle is home to communities with high
percentages of people of English, Irish and “Canadian”
backgrounds. This is true from L'Anse au Clair on the Quebec border
until the village of Mary's Harbour. Then you get into Metis
territory. From the next town, St. Lewis until Charlottetown is Metis
territory. Metis in this area usually refers to people of partial
Inuit heritage. Once you cross Hamilton Inlet, you get into full on
Inuit territory, in the region of Nunatsiavut. There are six coastal
communities north of Hamilton Inlet. Five are Inuit in Nunatsiavut
and the sixth, Natuashish is a First Nation (Innu) community. Further
inland and the head of Hamilton Inlet is the Happy Valley-Goose Bay
area. The leading ethnicity in the region is Inuit, although in Happy
Valley-Goose Bay proper it is only a plurality. “Canadian” and
English were also leading ethnicities in Happy Valley-Goose Bay. The
village of Sheshatshiu is the lone community in the area without
Inuit being the leading ethnicity, as it is a First Nations (Innu)
community. West of Happy Valley-Goose Bay, only Labrador City has
proper data. In Labrador City, the leading ethnicity was “Canadian”,
followed by English and Irish.
Religion
Labrador is as
religiously diverse as it is ethnically, that is when it comes to
Christian denominations. Labrador is overwhelmingly Christian, with
93% of inhabitants reporting as one form of Christianity or another.
For the most part, in Labrador what denomination one is depends on
what community they live in. While an area may be ethnically
homogenous, it may not be in regards to religion. For example, the
Inuit-Metis east coast is home to Anglican, Pentecostal or Catholic
communities. The Anglo-Irish cosat coast is home to Anglican and
Catholic communities as well as a couple of villages with no dominant
denomination. The Happy Valley-Goose Bay area is diverse as well.
Anglicanism is the leading denomination in Happy Valley-Goose Bay,
but it is also home to many Catholics and Uniteds. Labrador City is
also diverse. Catholicism is the leading denomination, but there are
many Uniteds, Anglicans and Pentecostals as well. Three of the five
Inuit villages saw “Other Christian” as their leading
denomination. This actually refers to Moravians, as those villages
had been founded by Moravian missionaries in the 18th
Century. The other two Inuit villages are not Moravian however, one
is Pentecostal and the other is Anglican. If there is one ethnic
group in Labrador that is religiously homogenous, it is the Innu who
are very, very Catholic according to the NHS. Both Innu villages are
about 87% Catholic.
The election
Even though the
2011 election in Labrador was so close, the 2013 by-election will not
be a rematch between Russell and Penashue. Instead, the Liberals are
running Yvonne Jones as their candidate. Jones is the former leader
of the Newfoundland and Labrador Liberal Party, and represented the
riding of Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair in the Newfoundland and Labrador
House of Assembly from 1996 to 2013. That provincial riding takes in
the east and south coast of Labrador, the strongest Liberal part of
the riding. The NDP have also chosen a new candidate in Harry
Borlase, an analyst from Happy Valley-Goose Bay. The Greens, who have
never got more than 4% in the riding will not be fielding a
candidate, as they do not wish to split the anti-Conservative vote.
However, the Libertarians will be running a candidate for the first
time ever in Labrador.
Because of the
closeness of the last election, one might expect this by-election to
be close as well. However, a number of factors are at work. First of
all, Penashue- whether innocent or not, has been disgraced, and his
reputation has been tarnished. That is as good as any excuse for
voters not to back him. Secondly, we are at the beginning of a new
“Trudeaumania” in Canada, with the Liberals surging to the top of
the polls since their election of Justin Trudeau as leader. Labrador,
a traditional Liberal riding has no reason to be not immune from this
surge. Thirdly, the Liberals are running a pretty high profile
candidate in Yvonne Jones. Only problem for her is that there is
little growth to be had in her already Liberal saturated stomping
grounds in Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair. And of course, polls are
showing another Liberal landslide in the riding. The most recent
Forum Research poll released yesterday put the
Liberals at 45% (down from 60% in a previous poll), the Tories at 31% (up from 29%) and the NDP at 24% (Up from 10%). Given all
these factors, I am pretty confident Jones will win.
Polls
close at 8pm Atlantic (8:30 Newfoundland time) or 7pm Eastern. Don't
forget to follow me on Twitter for live commentary!
No comments:
Post a Comment