Voters in the Quebec
riding of Richelieu head to the polls today to elect a new Member of
the Quebec National Assembly in a provincial by-election. The riding
has been sitting vacant since September, when its MNA, Elaine Zakaib
resigned to work as chief of restructuring and vice president of
strategy for the struggling women's clothing chain, Jacob (which would later go bankrupt). Zakaib,
a member of the Parti Quebecois was first elected in the 2012
election, and was re-elected in 2014.
Richelieu
is anchored by the city of Sorel-Tracy, whose 35,000 inhabitants make
up two-thirds of the riding's population. It is located on the south
shore of the St. Lawrence River,
between Montreal and Trois-Rivieres. The riding contains all of the
Pierre-De Saurel Regional County Municipality plus four rural
municipalities in Les Maskoutains Regional County Municipality.
Roughly speaking, the riding takes in the lower valleys of the
Richelieu and
Yamaska Rivers,
and the area between them.
Demographics
Richelieu's
demographics is that of a typical
homogeneous
French Canadian riding. It has very few immigrants, and is
overwhelmingly Francophone, with 98% of its inhabitants citing French
as their mother tongue. The riding is 98%
White, and is 91%
Catholic (with
7%
being irreligious).
Outside of the dominant
French Canadian ancestry,
about 2% of the riding is of Aboriginal ancestry, and at least 3%
have Irish ancestry. Manufacturing is the main industry in the
riding, employing nearly 20% of the work force. The riding is
slightly poorer than the provincial average. The median income is
$26,000, while the provincial median is $28,000. The average income
in Richelieu is $32,000, compared to $36,000 in the whole of Quebec.
History
Richelieu has existed as a riding
since confederation, except for a brief period during World War II
when it was part of Richelieu-Vercheres. The riding voted mostly
Conservative in the 19th
Century, but then backed the
Liberals
continuously
until 1948. Between 1948 and
the rise of the PQ in 1976, the
riding flipped back and forth between the Liberals and the
conservative Union Nationale party.
The PQ has held the riding almost continuously since then, except for
the period between 1985 and 1994 when the Liberals had
last held it. Despite being a
PQ stronghold, the PQ has not been able win a majority of the votes
here since 1998. Since then,
the anti-PQ vote has been split between the Liberals and the ADQ/CAQ.
In 2007, the ADQ came within 2000 votes of winning the riding, but
fell back to a distant third in 2008, when the Liberals finished
second,
3000 votes behind the PQ's Sylvain Simard. Zakaib's first win in 2012
was more comfortable, as she defeated the CAQ candidate by 3,600
votes. Her win in 2014 was another 3,600 vote margin against the CAQ
candidate. However,
both her and the CAQ lost a significant chunk of votes to the
Liberals, who finished a relatively close second
place, 4000 votes behind Zakaib.
MNAs:
1) Jos. Beaudreau,
Cons. (1867-1869)
2) Pierre Gelinas,
Cons. (1969-1871)
3) J.-A. Dorion,
Cons. (1871-1875)
4) Michel Mathieu,
Cons. (1875-1881)
5) Leon Leduc, Cons.
(1881-1886)
6) L.-P-.P. Cardin,
Liberal (1886-1892)
7) Louis Lacouture,
Cons. (1892-1897)
*) L.-P.-P. Cardin,
Liberal (1897-1912) 2nd time
8)
M.-L. Peloquin, Liberal (1912-1923)
9)
J.-B. Lafreniere, Liberal (1923-1929)
10)
Avilla Turoctt, Liberal (1929-1939)
11)
Felix Messier, Liberal (1939-1942)
12)
J.-W. Robidoux, Liberal (1942-1948)
13)
Bernard Gagne, U.N. (1948-1952)
14)
Gerard Cournoyer, Liberal (1952-1956)
*)
Bernard Gagne, UN (1956-1960) 2nd time
*)
Gerard Cournoyer, Liberal (1960-1966) 2nd
time
15)
Maurice Martel, U.N. (1966-1970)
16)
Claude Simard, Liberal (1970-1976)
*)
Maurice Martel, P.Q. (1976-1985) 2nd time
17)
Albert Khelfa, Liberal (1985-1994)
18)
Sylvain Simard, P.Q. (1994-2012)
19)
Ms. Elaine Zakaib, P.Q. (2012-2014)
Political geography
 |
Richelieu is located
in Quebec's sovereigntist heartland, an area north of Montreal that
is one of the most reliably separatist parts of the province. Despite
the orange wave of the 2011 federal election, the Richelieu area was
still one of the few areas in the province to back the Bloc
Quebecois. Before 2011, every federal riding along the St. Lawrence
between Montreal and Trois-Rivieres voted for the Bloc, going back as
far as their first election in 1993. In the 1980s the area backed
Mulroney's Progressive Conservatives, which had the support of Quebec
nationalists. Federally, the Richelieu area has not gone Liberal
since 1980.
While Richelieu is a
very homogenous riding, the fact that all three of the major parties
did well in the 2014 election, revealed some political cleavages in
the riding. The most noticeable cleavage is the urban-rural split.
The PQ did slightly better in Sorel-Tracy than in the rural parts of
the riding, while the centre-right CAQ party did slightly better in
rural Richelieu. The Liberal's urban and rural numbers were about
even, but most of their rural support was concentrated in the
municipalities of Saint-Gerard-Majella, Saint-David and Yamaska in
the eastern part of the riding. Saint-Gerard-Majella was the best
municipality for the Liberals, where they won 49% of the vote. The
central part of the riding was the best area for the CAQ. They won
over 40% of the vote in the three rural municipalities there,
Saint-Robert, Saint-Aime and Saint-Marcel-de-Richelieu. The strongest
area for the PQ was also in the central part of the riding. The
village of Massueville gave 45% of the vote to Zakaib, despite being
surrounded by the Municipality of Saint-Aime, which went CAQ.
Historically, the
rural parts of the riding have been less prone to support
sovereigntist parties than in the urban centre of Sorel-Tracy. In
2008, much of the rural part of the riding went to the Liberals, but
a lot of this vote had shifted to the CAQ in 2012. Federally, the BQ
normally sweeps almost every poll in the riding. The 2011 federal
election created a weird map, where the NDP won some suburban polls
in Sorel-Tracy, as well as the village of Massueville, which was the
PQ's best area in the last provincial election. The NDP also won a
scattering of rural polls across Richelieu, and won all the Richelieu
polls in the federal riding of Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot (most of
Richelieu is in the federal riding of
Bas-Richelieu—Nicolet--Becancour). Most of the riding still backed
the Bloc, however. Also of note was the municipality of
Saint-Gerard-Majella, which may be the most conservative part of the
riding. Not only was it the provincial Liberal's best poll in 2014,
its lone poll was the only poll in Richelieu to vote Conservative in
the 2011 federal election, and it also voted Conservative in 2006.
 |
| 2014 election day results by municipality (or former municipality) |
Outlook
Running to replace Zakaib for the PQ
is Sylvain Rochon, a former journalist who had also served as her adviser. Running for the CAQ is businessman Jean-Bernard Emond, the Liberals are running financial adviser Benoit Theroux and
QS is running professor Marie-Eve Mathieu. The sovereigntist Option
Nationale
party is running their leader, Sol Zanetti, though that party has
been irrelevant since the 2012 election. The Greens, Conservatives
and Equipe Aotonomiste are also running candidates.
Province-wide polling in Quebec has
been fairly constant since the provincial election last Spring. The
Liberals are polling a little bit worse than the 42% they won in 2014
(they are now in
the high 30s), while the PQ and CAQ are about even in the
polls, at about the mid-20s,
which is around what
they won last Spring. Quebec
Solidaire seems to have benefited the most from the Liberal dip in
the polls, and are up into the low-teens from the 8% they won in
2014. With the little volatility in the polls, it stands to reason
that the PQ's Sylvain Rochon should be able to win today's
by-election. In 2014, the CAQ candidate finished 12 points behind
Zakaib, and without a CAQ surge, I do not think they will be able to
make up the difference. For what it's worth, SorelTracy Magazine conducted a poll last month showing Rochon with a 14 point lead over Emond (41 % to 27%). Theroux was at 20%.
Polls close at 8pm.
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