Federal by-elections (Part 3: Calgary Centre)

Calgary Centre is located in central Calgary, Alberta's largest city. It includes the city's central core, as well as some surrounding inner-suburban areas. Its bounded on the north by the Bow River and Bow Trail, on the west by Sacree Trail, on the south by Glenmore Trail and on the east by the CPR railway.

Demographics:

The riding is 79% White, with Chinese being the largest visible minority at 6%. 3% of the population is Black and Aboriginals make up 2% of the population. 73% of the riding has English as their mother tongue, 4% have Chinese as their mother tongue, while just 2% have their native language as French. 33% of the riding is Protestant and 25% is Catholic. Islam is the largest non Christian religion in the riding, with 3% of residents being Muslim. 30% of residents have no religion at all.. In 2005, the median income of the riding was $30,729, making it the 10th richest riding in Alberta.

History

The riding was created in 1968, and until the most recent redistribution ten years ago, consisted of parts of central Calgary on both sides of the Bow River. While the riding has always elected right of centre candidates since its creation, the riding- when it crossed the Bow River united the two most traditionally progressive parts of the city together. Redistribution in 2004 split these two areas apart by moving Calgary Centre south of the Bow River, and creating the new riding of Calgary Centre-North north of the Bow. Between 1953 and 1968, most of what is today Calgary Centre was in the riding of Calgary South. Between 1917 and 1954, the area was divided between various incarnations of Calgary West and Calgary East. And, from 1904 to 1917, the area made up a very small section of a large riding known as “Calgary” that consisted of more than half of Southern Alberta, and-when it was created even part of today's Saskatchewan (back then it was part of the Northwest Territories).

As mentioned, the riding has been dominated by right of centre candidates ever since the area started voting for Members of Parliament. Only in two elections (1940 and 1963) has the area voted for a Liberal. And, in only two elections aas the area voted for a left wing candidate, electing Labour candidates in 1921, and in 1926 (only in Calgary East). The area is a dead zone for the NDP at present. The Liberals do have some strength in the riding on the provincial level, as the downtown riding of Calgary-Buffalo is currently held by the provincial Liberals. The riding is known for electing some moderate conservatives. Outgoing MP Lee Richardson being one example. In 2000, former Prime Minister Joe Clark, a red Tory won this seat in a close race against the more conservative Canadian Alliance candidate.

List of MPs:

Calgary

* M.S. McCarthy, Cons. (1904-1911)
* R.B. Bennett, Cons. (1911-1917)

East Calgary / Calgary East (1917-1953)

* D.L. Redman, Unionist (1917-1921)
* Wm. Irvine, Labour (1921-1925)
* A.T. Davis, Cons. (1925-1926)
* H.B. Adshead, Labour (1926-1930)
* G.D. Stanley, Cons. (1930-1935)
* J.C. Landeryou, Soc. Credit (1935-1940)
* G.H. Ross, Liberal (1940-1945)
* D.S. Harkness, Prog. Cons. (1945-1954)

Calgary West (1917-1953)

* T.M. Tweedie, Unionist (1917-1921)
* J.T. Shaw, Labour (1921-1925)
* R.B. Bennett, Cons. (1925-1939) 2^nd time
* D.G.L. Cunnington, Cons. (1939-1940)
* M.J. Edwards, Liberal (1940-1945)
* A.L. Smith, Prog. Cons. (1945-1951)
* C.O. Nickle, Prog. Cons. (1951-1954)

Calgary South (1953-1968)

* C.O. Nickle, Prog. Cons. (1954-1957) contd.  
* A.R. Smith, Prog. Cons. (1957-1963)
* H.W. Hays, Liberal (1963-1965)
* H.R. Ballard, Prog. Cons. (1965-1968)

Calgary Centre (1968-present)

* D.S. Harkness, Prog. Cons. (1968-1972) 2^nd time representing area 
* Harvie Andre, Prog. Cons. (1972-1993)
* J. Silye, Reform (1993-1997)
* E.C. Lowther, Reform (1997-2000)
* C.J. Clark, Prog. Cons. (2000-2004)
* Lee Richardson, Cons. (2004-2012)

Poll maps

2004 election

 

With Joe Clark retiring from politics, Calgary Centre (called Calgary South Centre in 2004) would become an open seat. The newly created Conservative Party would be the clear front runners to win the riding, and they would recruit former MP Lee Richardson to be their candidate. His main challenger would be the Liberal candidate, lawyer Julia Turnbull. Richardson would end up winning the seat by nearly 11,000 votes- which would end up being the closest race for him in this seat. Richardson would win most of the polls in the riding, doing the best in the more suburban southern and western fringes of the riding. He would do especially well in neighbourhoods such as Glendale, Glanmorgan, Bel-Aire and Windsor Park. The more urban central part of the city was worse for Richardson, and was the only part of the riding where the Liberals won any polls. In fact, the Liberals won quite a few polls in the western half of the Beltline, they would win the Cliff Bungalow neighbourhood, win quite a few polls in Bankview, and do very well in Chinatown. The best Tory poll came in poll 211, which is located in Bel-Aire, on the south side of the riding. The poll includes the Calgary Country Club, and is very wealthy. Richardson won 75% of the votes there. The best poll for the Liberals was poll 90, in Chinatown. The Liberals won 76% of the vote in the poll, which would be the only poll where they even broke 50%.

2006 election

In 2006, Richardson's main sacrificial lamb opponent was Liberal architect Heesung Kim. Richardson defeated Kim by nearly 20,000 votes. Richardson won all but two of the riding's polls, and did his best in much of the same parts of the riding. His best neighbourhoods would be Glendale, Upper Mount Royal, Bel-Aire and Mayfair. His worst neighbourhoods were in places like Lower Mount Royal and Cliff Bungalow, but he still won all the polls in those neighbourhoods. The Liberals won just two polls, one in Chinatown (once again, their best poll – poll 90) and the other one was in the eastern end of the Beltline. Poll 211 in Bel-Aire would once again be the best Tory poll, where Richardson won 82% of the vote. The Liberals would win 51% in their best poll in Chinatown.

2008 election

2008 was a rematch between Richardson and Kim, but also with a strong showing by Green candidate Natalie Odd. Richardson's lead would be cut down to 17,000 votes over Kim. Odd would be 600 votes behind Kim. Richardson's strength came from the same neighbourhoods he did well in back in 2006. He won all but four polls in the riding. The Greens would win three polls, two in Cliff Bungalow and one in the western end of the Beltline. The Liberals won just one poll, also in the Beltline. The top poll for the Tories would continue to be poll 211 in Bel-Aire, for the third election in a row. Richardson took a small hit in that poll, dropping to 80%. The top Liberal poll (poll 106) was not even the one they won. They would win 33% of the vote in 106, and would lost the poll by two votes. Their third best poll, 103 was the one they won- with less than 30% of the vote, thanks to a four way split. Both polls are in the Beltline district. The best Green poll would be 61, where they won 37% of the vote. This poll was also in the Beltline, west of 14 St at 14 Ave.

2011 election

In 2011, Richardson would return to his 20,000 vote margin, defeating the Liberal candidate Jennifer Pollock. The NDP also did their best in the riding since 1988 by winning 15% of the vote, and losing by 21,000 votes. Richardson once again dominated the riding, winning all but two polls. Those two polls actually going to the NDP. Richardson's strongest neighbourhoods would remain mostly the same, as he would do especially well in Rosscarrock, Glendale, Glanbrook, Glanmorgan, Eau Claire, Upper Mount Royal, Rideau Park, Elbow Park, Britannia, Bel-Aire, Mayfair and Meadowlark Park. The two NDP polls would both be in the Beltline neighbourhood in the central city. The Beltline, Cliff Bungalow, Lower Mount Royal and Bankview would be the worst neighbourhoods for Richardson. The best poll for the Conservatives would be poll 404 this time. This poll consists of a very upscale retirement residence in Altadore known as “Manor Village of Garrison Woods”. Richardson won 81% of the vote there. The Liberals didn't win any polls, but their best poll was 151 in Bankview where they won 28% of the vote, losing to the Tories by 4 votes. The strongest NDP poll was 103 in the Beltline, consisting of two city blocks surrounding the Beaulieu Gardens. The poll consists of a series of Apartment Buildings, as well as Lougheed House. The NDP won the poll with 38% of the vote.

The by-election

Bonus map: 2000 poll winners within current riding boundary

Richardson resigned back in May to take a position with the Redford government. If you just take a look at the 2011 election results, then the riding should be considered the safest of the three by-elections today. However, polls indicate that the riding will be the closest. The Liberals, in particular are really making this race one to watch. The Conservative candidate is journalist Joan Crockatt. Running for the Liberals is writer Harvey Locke, who also ran for the provincial Liberals in 1989. The Greens are also running a journalist/writer in Chris Turner. The NDP is running community activist Dan Meades.

The Conservatives may have shot themselves in the foot here by nominating Crockatt, who is seen on the right of the party. Anywhere else in Alberta, or even Calgary, she would be a good fit, but this riding is known as a “Red Tory” seat. This has given the Liberals the boost they need to make the race competitive. The most recent Forum Research poll showed Crockatt ahead by just 2% - 32%-30% over Locke. The Greens also polled quite well, with Turner 23%. Meades would win 12% according to that poll, a disappointing result for the NDP. However, since that poll was taken, the Liberals have done some of their own foot shooting, with some anti-Alberta comments coming out of my former MP, David McGuinty. Some more anti-Alberta comments made by potential Liberal leader Justin Trudeau that he made a couple of years ago have also come out and have fueled anti-Liberal sentiment in the riding, and have evoked ghosts of the past (especially in the case of the Trudeau clan). A more recent poll conducted by Return On Insight conducted while the scandal ocurred shows Crockatt with a 5 point lead over Locke (37-32). Turner dropped to 17%, and Meades was still at 12%. This showed some late movement from the Greens to the Liberals, but also from the Liberals to Tories. It remains to be seen whether the Greens might end up benefiting from the negative comments, as progressive voters in the city search for a candidate to rally behind. And, there has been a concerted effort to do so. The last close election in the riding was back in 2000 when Joe Clark defeated the Canadian Alliance. Perhaps we're looking at a similar race this time.

Polls close in Calgary Centre at 7:30 Mountain Time (9:30 Eastern). Polls close in Durham at the same time (9:30 Eastern), while polls close in Victoria at 7:00 Pacific (10:00 Eastern). Follow me on Twitter after 10pm tomorrow night to hear my reaction as polls close.

Federal by-elections (Part 2: Durham)

Guide map

Durham is an exurban riding located east of Toronto, consisting of the municipalities of Clarington, Uxbridge, Scugog and the tiny Mississaugas of Scugog First Nation. Major communities include Bowmanville, Courtice, Newcastle, Uxbridge and Port Perry.

Demographics:

The riding is 95% White, with Blacks being the largest visible minority at just 2%. Aboriginals make up 1% of the population, despite their being a reserve in the riding. 92% of the riding has English as their mother tongue, while just 2% have their native language as French. 52% of the riding is Protestant and 24% is Catholic. 20% of residents have no religion at all.. In 2005, the median income of the riding was $32,869, making it the 22nd^th richest riding in Ontario.

History

The riding under its current boundaries has only existed since the last redistribution 10 years ago. The three municipalities were first united in 1988, but Uxbridge would be removed from 1997 to 2004. Historically, what is now the riding of Durham spanned two counties, Durham and Ontario. Ontario County was dissolved in 1972, and included Uxbridge and the western half of what is today Scugog (Reach and Scugog Townships). Clarington and the eastern half of Scugog (Cartwright Twp) would be found in Durham County. Today, they are all in the Durham Regional Municipality.

Today, Durham is a safe Conservative seat, but has historically switched back and forth between the Liberals and Tories. The CCF (predecessor to the NDP) briefly held the riding of Ontario, which included part of today's Scugog Twp from 1948 to 1949. The United Farmers of Ontario also briefly held part of the riding (today's Uxbridge and western Scugog), as they held the riding of Ontario North from 1919 to 1925.

Since the three municipalities were first united in 1988, the area has been dominated by right wing parties. While the Liberals won the seat in 1993, 1997 and 2000, the combined Reform/Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative vote in each of those elections was higher than the Liberals. It was only natural that when the Conservatives were united that they would win this seat back in 2004, although it was a close race that year. Ever since then, the Tories have been adding to their margins.

List of MPs (Durham County part):

Durham West
* D.E. Blake, Liberal (1867-1873)
* E.B. Wood, Liberal (1873-1874)
* H.W. Burk, Liberal (1874-1879)
* D.E. Blake, Liberal (1879-1891) 2^nd time
* Rbt. Beith, Liberal (1891-1900)
* C.J. Thornton, Cons. (1900-1901)
* Rbt. Beith, Liberal (1902-1904)

Durham  
* H.A. Ward, Cons. (1904-1908)
* C.J. Thornton, Cons. (1908-1917) 2^nd time 
* N.W. Rowell, Unionist (1917-1921)
* F.W. Bowen, Cons. (1921-1935)
* W.F. Rickard, Liberal (1935-1945)
* C.E. Stephenson, Prog. Cons. (1945-1949)
* J.M. James, Liberal (1949-1957)
* R.P. Vivian, Prog. Cons. (1957-1962)
* R.C. Honey, Liberal (1962-1968)

Northumberland—Durham 
* R.C. Honey, Liberal (1968-1972) contd. 
* A.F. Lawrence, Prog. Cons. (1972-1979)

Durham—Northumberland 
Note: Ontario County abolished and Reach and Scugog Twps (formerly in Ontario County) have been amalgamated into the new Township of Scugog along with Cartwright (formerly in Durham County). The entirety of the new Scugog Township would be in this riding.

 * A.F. Lawrence, Prog. Cons. (1979-1988) contd.

 List of MPs (Ontario County part)

Ontario North (1867-1882) 
* J.A. Thompson, Liberal (1867-1872)
* W.H. Gibbs, Cons. (1872-1874)
* Adam Gordon, Liberal (1874-1876)
* W.H. Gibbs, Cons. (1876-1878) 2^nd time 
* Geo. Wheeler, Liberal (1878-1882)

In 1882, the area would be split into 3 different ridings. Scugog (the peninsular part of today's Scugog Township) and Scott Twps (north half of today's Uxbridge) remain in Ontario North while Uxbridge Twp (south half of today's Uxbridge) would be transferred to the new riding of Ontario West. Reach Twp (west half of today's Scugog Twp, excluding the peninsula) was added to the new riding of Ontario South. 

 
Ontario West (1882-1904) [Uxbridge]
* Geo. Wheeler, Liberal (1882-1884) contd. 
* J.D. Edgar, Liberal (1884-1899)
* I.J. Gould, Liberal (1900-1904)

In 1904, Uxbridge Twp. is transferred to Ontario North.

Ontario North (1882-1925) [Scugog & Scott]  
* A.P. Cockburn, Liberal (1882-1887)
* Frank Madill, Cons. (1887-1895)

Note: In 1896, Scugog Twp is removed from the riding and added to Ontario South.
* J.A. McGillivray, Lib.-Cons. (1895-1896)
* Duncan Graham, Ind. Lib. (1897-1900)
* Angus McLeod, Cons. (1900-1902)
* G.D. Grant, Liberal (1903-1904)

Note: In 1904, Uxbridge Township is added 

 * G.D. Grant, Liberal (1904-1908) contd.
* S.S. Sharpe, Cons. (1908-1918)
* R.H. Halbert, Ind./U.F.O. (1919-1925)

Muskoka—Ontario (1925-1949) [Uxbridge & Scott]  
* Peter McGibbon, Cons. (1925-1935)
* S.J. Furniss, Liberal (1935-1945)
* J.M. MacDonnell, Prog. Cons. (1945-1949)

In 1949, the riding is abolished, and Uxbridge and Scott are transferred to the Ontario riding.

Ontario South (1882-1925) [Reach]
 * F.W. Glen, Liberal (1882-1887)
* Wm. Smith, Cons. (1887-1891)
* J.I. Davidson, Liberal (1891-1892)
* Wm. Smith, Cons. (1892-1896) 2^nd time

Note: In 1896, Scugog Twp is added to the riding.  
* Leonard Burnett, Liberal (1896-1900)
* Wm. Ross, Liberal (1900-1904)
* Peter Christie, Cons. (1904-1908)
* F.L. Fowke, Liberal (1908-1911)
* Wm. Smith, Cons. (1911-1921) 3^rd time 
* L.O. Clifford, Liberal (1921-1925)

Ontario (1925-1988) [Reach & Scugog] 
* T.E. Kaiser, Cons. (1925-1930)
* W.H. Moore, Liberal (1930-1945)
* W.E.N. Sinclair, Liberal (1945-1947)
* A.H. Williams, C.C.F. (1948-1949)

Note: Uxbridge and Scott Twps added to the riding
 
* W.C. Thomson, Liberal (1949-1951)
* Michael Starr, Prog. Cons. (1952-1968)
* N.A. Cafik, Liberal (1968-1979)

Note: The new Scugog Twp (Scugog and Reach Twps) removed from riding and added to Durham.

* T.S. Fennell, Prog. Cons. (1979-1988)

List of MPs since 1988

Durham (1988-present)
The Municipalities of Clarington (then called Newcastle), Scugog and Uxbridge would first be united in one riding 1988. Uxbridge was removed from the riding between 1997 and 2004. The riding would briefly be named “Clarington—Scugog—Uxbridge” for the 2004 election.  

* K.R. Stevenson, Prog. Cons. (1988-1993)
* A.J. Shepherd, Liberal (1993-2004)
* Ms. B.J. Oda, Cons. (2004-2012)

Pickering—Ajax--Uxbridge (1997-2004) [Uxbridge]
Uxbridge would be briefly in this riding. 
* D.P. McTeague, Liberal (1997-2004)

Poll maps

2004 election

In 2004, the Tories targeted this riding because the combined Canadian Alliance-Progressive Conservative vote from the 2000 election was higher than the Liberals. The result would have been close though, with the Liberals losing by 2,000 votes in a hypothetical match up. The 2004 elected featured Orono journalist Bev Oda for the Conservatives against Uxbridge executive Tim Lang of the Liberals. The race would be very close, with Oda edging out Lang by 1,300 votes. Oda won the race by carrying her home turf in rural Clarington, rural Scugog Twp as well as Newcastle. Lang would win his home territory of Uxbridge, as well as Port Perry. Bowmanville and Courtice, the two largest communities in the riding would be split between the two candidates. Oda's best poll would be 59, in rural Scugog Township where she got 52% of the vote. This poll is located on the shores of Lake Scugog, and is centered on the community of Aldreds Beach. The Liberals' best poll would be 49 which is located in Port Perry. The Liberals scored 59% of the vote there. Interestingly, the area, which is known as Highland Beach appears to be quite an upscale part of town, and is located on the western shores of Lake Scugog.

2006 election

By 2006, the popularity of the Tories in exurban Ontario would increase dramatically, and Oda would find little trouble winning her second election. Her main opponent was former NDP MPP and Scugog mayor Doug Moffatt, who was running for the Liberals. Oda beat Moffatt by nearly 10,000 votes. Oda won nearly every poll in the riding, including sweeping Uxbridge (where she had lost in 2004), and the rural parts of Scugog and Clarington. The Liberals would be relegated to a few urban polls in Clarington and Port Perry. Moffatt being mayor of Scugog didn't help him much in the township where he won just two polls, and tied in another. Oda's best area was once again her home base of rural Clarington. Her best poll however was 66 in Scugog where she won 58% of the vote. This poll is in the rural southern part of Scugog and is adjacent to Clarington. The area is mostly rural farm land and is centered on the community of Purple Hill. The Liberals' best poll was once again 49 in Port Perry where they actually tied the Conservatives at 45%. The Liberals won a number of other polls, but with less share of the vote.

2008 election

By 2008, the Liberals had totally written of the riding and Oda won an easy election. The Liberals with candidate Bryan Ransom still finished 2^nd however, but lost the seat by a margin of 16,000 votes. This time Oda did win every single poll in the riding, and getting large majorities in much of the rural areas. Her weakest areas continued to be urban areas, and her worst part of the riding was central Bowmanville. Her best poll was 164 this time, in Wilmot Creek, a subdivision on Lake Ontario near Newcastle. Oda won 68% of the vote there, a symbol of finally winning over many Liberals in the riding, as her previous best poll from 2006 was just 58%. Oda's worst poll, which she still happened to win was 95 in central Courtice right at the main intersection of Courtice Rd and King St. In this poll, she won just 37% of the vote, but benefited from vote splitting between the Liberals, NDP and Greens who won 33%, 18% and 12% of the vote respectively in that poll.

2011 election

In 2011, the riding was firmly considered a safe seat for the Tories, and Oda went on to win the election with only a slight increase in her vote share. This time her main opponent was the NDP's Tammy Schoep, whom she defeated by nearly 20,000 votes. The Liberals were relegated to 3^rd place for the first time in the riding's short history. Oda once again won every poll in the riding, and dominated the rural areas. Once again, her weakest parts of the riding were in the urban areas, specifically Courtice and Bowmanville. This time, Oda's best poll was 27-1 in rural Uxbridge where she won 77% of the vote. This poll includes a new subdivision next to the Wyndance Golf Club at Coppins Corners on Goodwood Rd. Oda's worst poll was also in Uxbridge Twp, but this time in the town. This was poll 22 where she won 42% of the vote. This poll is located near the centre of the town, and is centered on Victoria Dr. The NDP came in a distant 2^nd in the poll with 27% of the vote. The Liberals won 21% and the Greens 8% in that poll.

The by-election

Tomorrow's by-election was spurred upon the resignation of Bev Oda back in July amidst a scandal involving her spending habits. Nonetheless, the seat is still considered a safe Tory seat. Running for the Conservatives is lawyer and pilot Erin O'Toole, who lives in Courtice. The NDP is running former MPP and Brock Twp mayor Larry O'Connor. The Liberal candidate is Grant Humes, an executive from Bowmanville. And the Green candidate is field technician and previous candidate (2004 and 2006) Virginia Ervin, who resides in Hampton. The most recent Forum Research poll in this riding showed O'Toole well in the lead with 42%. O'Connor was in 2^nd place with 26%, Humes had 22% and Ervin was at 7%. This would be good news for the New Democrats, who won 21% of the vote here in 2011. This result would also be an increase for the Liberals who received 18% in 2011. I don't expect the Tories to lose, but it will be interesting to see who finished 2^nd, and whoever does will have bragging rights for sure.

Federal by-elections: Part 1 (Victoria)

Voters in three federal ridings go to the polls Monday in by-elections to fill vacancies in the ridings of Victoria (BC), Calgary Centre (AB) and Durham (ON). I will be doing a profile on each riding between now and when the polls close. Part 1 is Victoria.

The riding of Victoria consists of British Columbia's capital city of Victoria, plus the suburban District of Oak Bay and part of the District of Saanich.

Guide map

Demographics:

The riding is 86% White, with Chinese being the largest visible minority at 4%. Aboriginals make up 3% of the population. 84% of the riding has English as their mother tongue. 3% have Chinese as their mother tongue, while just 2% have their native language as French. 35% of the riding is Protestant and 15% is Catholic, but a plurality (41%) of the riding has no religion at all. Buddhism is the largest non-Christian faith at 2%. In 2005, the median income of the riding was $24,022, making it the 15^th poorest riding in BC.

History

The riding has been in existence since BC joined confederation in 1871. The riding elected two members of parliament until 1904. The riding is currently a safe-NDP seat, but is not historically an NDP seat. The NDP did not win the riding until 1988. It has only been a safe NDP seat since the election of Denise Savoie in 2006. The NDP strength in the riding has more of a history in provincial politics. For most of its history, the riding has swung back and forth between the Tories and the Liberals.

List of MPs:

* Amor De Cosmos, Liberal (1871-1882) & Henry Nathan, Jr., Liberal (1871-1874)
* F.J. Roscoe, Ind. Liberal (1874-1878)
* Sir J.A. Macdonald, Lib-Cons. (1878-1882)
* Noah Shakespeare, Cons. (1882-1888) & E.C. Baker, Cons. (1882-1889)
* E.G. Prior, Cons. (1888-1902)
* Thos. Earle, Cons. (1889-1904)
* Geo. Riley, Liberal (1902-1906)
* Wm. Templeman, Liberal (1906-1908)
* G.H. Barnard, Cons. (1908-1917)
* S.F. Tolmie, Cons. (1917-1928)
* D.B. Plunkett, Cons (1928-1936)
* S.F. Tolmie, Cons. (1936-1937) 2^nd time
* R.W. Mayhew, Liberal (1937-1953)

* F.T. Fairey, Liberal (1953-1957)
* A.D. McPhillips, Prog. Cons. (1957-1963)
* D.W. Groos, Liberal (1963-1972)
* A.B. McKinnon, Prog. Cons. (1972-1988)
* J.F. Brewin, N.D.P. (1988-1993)
* D.A. Anderson, Liberal (1993-2006)
* Ms. Denise Savoie, NDP (2006-2012)

Poll maps

2004 election

11 year Liberal incumbent David Anderson would face a difficult contest against the NDP's David Turner, the former mayor of Victoria. Anderson kept his seat by just 2300 votes. The electoral map of Victoria was just as divided as the election. The map shows a divide between the NDP-leaning western half of the riding and the Liberal-leaning eastern half. The western half of the riding is the City of Victoria, where Turner was mayor. Turner didn't do very well at all in Saanich and Oak Bay, however. Most of Victoria went for Turner, however Anderson did win the neighbourhoods of Gonzales, Fairfield, Rockland, Harris Green and also did well in James Bay. Anderson's strongest part of the riding was in Oak Bay, while Turner's strongest area was in Fernwood, Hillside-Quadra and North Park. Anderson's best poll was poll 98 where he won 56% of the vote. This poll is located in Oak Bay, directly adjacent to the Strait of Juan de Fuca in the upper-class neighbourhood of Uplands. Turner's best poll was poll 110 where he won 60% of the vote. This poll is located in Fernwood and includes William Stevenson Park, and has a number of small apartment complexes.

2006 election

By 2006, Anderson had retired, leaving the seat open, and it automatically became an NDP target. Former Victoria city councillor Denise Savoie won the NDP nomination, defeating Turner for the nod. Her main opposition came from Liberal candidate David Mulroney who was hoping to keep the seat for the Liberals. On election day, Savoie became the first female MP to represent the riding, and only the 2^nd New Democrat. She defeated Mulroney by 6800 votes. Savoie won most of the polls across the City of Victoria, as well the Mt. Tolmie and Camosun neighbourhoods of Saanich. She was also able to win the neighbourhood of North Oak Bay (in Oak Bay) and did well in South Oak Bay as well. Her best areas were the same strong areas in the north end of town as Turner (Fernwood, Hillside-Quadra and North Park). The rest of Oak Bay and Saanich were an enigma for Savoie, and were claimed by Mulroney and her Conservative opponent, Robin Baird. Mulroney won the neighbourhood of Estevan in Oak Bay and the Cadboro Bay area of Saanich. Baird won Henderson and Uplands in Oak Bay as well as Ten Mile Point and Queenswood in Saanich. Once again, the best NDP poll was 110 in Fernwood where Savoie increased the NDP share of the vote to 69%. The strongest Liberal poll this time was 157 in the neighbourhood of Harris Green in Victoria. This poll was a small sliver of red surrounded by orange. This poll consists of the up-scale Regent Park condominiums on View St. Mulroney won 57% of the vote in this poll. The best Conservative poll was 98, the same poll that was the Liberal's best one in 2004. The Tories won 51% of the vote here, while the Liberals dropped to 34%.

2008 election

In 2008, the Liberals had dropped out of favour in BC, and the race in Victoria became an NDP-Conservative fight for the first time since 1988. Savoie won the election easily, defeating Conservative candidate Jack McClintock by 10,000 votes. Savoie won in much of the same areas as 2008, just padding her vote totals. However, she did expand more into Oak Bay, and in Saanich, picking up the neighbourhoods of South Oak Bay and Cadboro Bay. Her best areas once again were in the North end of the city, as well as in James Bay. The Tories won in the same areas they did in 2006, plus added some Liberal territory too. Their strength came along the Oak Bay coast, and did especially well in the neighbourhoods of Uplands and Henderson in Oak Bay as well as Ten Mile Point and Queenswood in Saanich. The strongest NDP poll in 2008 was 115 this time, still in Fernwood. This poll is located between Denman and Pembroke Streets, and Savoie won 69% of the vote there. The best Tory poll this was was 9, in West Victoria. The NDP dominated most of this neighbourhood, except for two polls in the south where the Tories dominated. Poll 9 is located on the south coast of West Victoria, adjacent to Victoria Harbour. This poll, as well as neighbouring Poll 11 includes a number of upscale waterfront condos.

2011 election

With the NDP wave of 2011, Savoie increased her vote margin over the Tories to 16,000 votes over her opponent, former Nova Scotia MLA Patrick Hunt. Savoie's support mostly came from increasing her margins in already strong NDP territory, but also continued to encroach on Tory territory in Oak Bay. In this election, she was able to win the waterfront polls of Oak Bay which had previously gone Conservative. Her best area continued to be the north side of the city. The Tories held on to their two neighrbourhoods in Oak Bay (Uplands and Henderson) and their two in Saanich (Ten Mile Point and Queenswood). The Liberals won just one poll, 85 in Uplands, Oak Bay. Liberal candidate Christopher Causton lucked out to win the poll with just 35% of the vote thanks to an even split between the NDP and Tories at 28% and 31% respectively. The best NDP poll in the riding was once again 110 (in Fernwood), which was their best poll in 2004 and 2006. They won this poll with 71% of the vote. The best Tory poll came in poll 84, in Uplands, Oak Bay. The Tories received 48% of the vote there. Poll 84 is right next to poll 98 where the Tories did the best in 2006 and the Liberals in 2004.

The by-election

Monday's by-election was triggered when Savoie resigned in August for health reasons. The NDP will running prominent environmental and aboriginal rights lawyer Murray Rankin. His opponents are technologist Dale Gann of the Conservatives, economist (and former NDP candidate) Paul Summervile of the Liberals and law professor Donald Galloway of the Greens. The most recent Forum Research poll showed Rankin well ahead of the pack at 47%. Interestingly, the Greens were in 2^nd at 26% followed by the Liberals at 14% and the Tories at 12%. It's not surprising that the Greens would do well, considering that Green leader Elizabeth May holds the neighbouring riding of Saanich—Gulf Island. But what is interesting is how poor both the Liberals and Tories are doing, considering their history of going back and forth in holding this riding. With those two parties polling so low, it will be interesting to see which ones will win in the anti-NDP areas in Oak Bay, Ten Mile Point and the condos of West Victoria.