2012 Alberta election analysis - Rest of Alberta

Guide map.

With the Alberta provincial election just three days away, I have to take a look at some races to watch outside Calgary and Edmonton to supplement my previous posts of the races to watch in those cities. Polls have consistently shown that the Wildrose Party has a large lead outside of these cities, but that doesn't mean there'll be a few races to keep an eye on Monday.

It seems each pollster has divided the province differently when the publish their breakdowns. Some divide the province outside the two cities into three regions (North, Central and South), some just 2 regions (north and south), while others just lump in all the non Calgary and Edmonton bits into one breakdown. This has proven to be rather problematic in trying to determine how things are going outside the cities. Especially noting that Northern Alberta votes (somewhat) differently than southern Alberta.

Let's take a look at some recent polls

Abacus (April 18-19)

Party	North	Central	South	Total Rural
Wildrose Party	45	54	52	52
Prog. Cons.	31	27	27	28
Liberal	11	5	3	6
NDP	10	9	17	11

Think HQ Public Affairs (April 17-18)

Party	Total Rural
Wildrose Party	48
Prog. Cons.	31
Liberal	5
NDP	12

Forum Research (April 16)

Party	North	Central	South
Wildrose Party	41	50	49
Prog. Cons.	32	30	26
Liberal	5	6	8
NDP	19	10	10

Leger (April 13-16)

Party	Total Rural
Wildrose Party	49
Prog. Cons.	34
Liberal	6
NDP	8

What these polls show us is that the Wildrose Party is polling around 50% outside Calgary and Edmonton, almost 10 points higher than the provincial average. We also see that they are polling better in more conservative southern and central Alberta than in northern Alberta, between 5 and 10 points better. Meanwhile the Tories are polling around 30% in the region, about where they stand in the province as a whole. Their support is contrary to the Wildrose, as they are better in the north than in the south, but even still, they are around 10 points behind the WRP there. In third place is the NDP, which appears to have moved well ahead of the Liberals for third position in rural Alberta. Forum Research shows them strong in the north, while Abacus shows them strong in the south. Not sure which is true, at this point. Their average appears to be around 10%, which is where they are at provincially as a whole. Finally the Liberals are in single digits in the region, and will not be a factor anywhere in my opinion. They are well below the provincial average in the region, perhaps as much as 5% less, which is half of the 10% they are at in province wide polls.

Now that we know where the party's stand, let's take a look at some races to watch.

Northern Alberta

With the Wildrose Party with a comfortable lead in the polls in the north, it's safe to say they will win most of the seats in the region. So, the seats we should be watching will be those where their strength is weaker. But first, let's take a look at some open seats in the north.

Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock

This riding is located northwest of Edmonton, and went strongly for the Tories in the last election. The retiring incumbent is Ken Kowalski who secured 70% of the vote in 2008. If he were running again, those numbers would probably be enough to ensure his re-election. However, the seat is now open for a Wildrose pick up. They are running well known columnist Link Byfield, who also happens to be a “Senator-in-waiting”, having been elected by Albertans back in 2004 to sit in the Canadian Senate (he has yet to be appointed, as he is still waiting for an opening). Byfield is running against Maureen Kubinec, a local county councillor. The Wildrose Party didn't run a candidate here in 2008, but the Alberta Alliance ran a candidate in 2004 that won 9% of the vote. This will be a very interesting race to see if this seat will be caught up in the Wildrose wave on Monday.

Fort McMurray-Conklin

The rapid growth of Fort McMurray has resulted in the previous riding, Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo to be divided in half. The Tories won Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo in 2008 with 63% of the vote. The MLA elected was Guy Boutilier, who has since switched parties to Wildrose and is running for the WRP in the now smaller version of Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo, next door. This means that this new seat of Fort McMurray-Conklin will be open. The Wildrose candidate is Doug Faulkner, the former mayor of Wood Buffalo, Fort McMurray's municipality. The Tory candidate is another municipal politician, Don Scott who has served on the region's municipal council for just a year and a half. It seems to be that this will be a very easy pick up for the Wildrose Party. For the record, the WRP did not run a candidate in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo in 2008 and the Alberta Alliance got just 3% of the vote in 2004.

Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville

On the east side of Edmonton lies this riding, represented by former Tory Premier Ed Stelmach. Stelmach is retiring, opening this seat up. Stelmach won this seat by a huge margin in 2008, getting 78% of the vote. The Wildrose Party did not even field a candidate in that election. The Tories are running Stratchona County councillor Jacquie Fenske to replace Stelmach. The Wildrose Party is also running a strong candidate in Shannon Stubbs, a former Reform Party staffer. While the Tories did very well here in the 2008 election, the Alberta Alliance ran a strong campaign here in 2004, getting 11% of the vote. In that election, Stelmach who was yet to be Premier, won just 48% of the vote. This is sure to be another exciting race to watch.

Grande Prairie-Smoky

Tory MLA Mel Knight will be retiring, creating an open seat in Grande Prairie-Smoky, in the province's northwest. Knight secured 59% of the vote here in 2008, well ahead of a fractured opposition, including the WRP candidate that won a strong 13% of the votes. The Tories are running a strong candidate in Grande Prairie County reeve Everett McDonald. Wildrose will be running local farmer Todd Loewen. Due to this being an open seat, I think the Wildrose Party will have the edge here, despite the experience disadvantage of their candidate.

Sherwood Park

On the east side of Edmonton lies the suburban riding of Sherwood Park which is being vacated by Tory MLA Iris Evans. The Tories hope to keep the seat with their candidate, former Strathcona County mayor Cathy Oleson. Oleson might be a bit of a political liability however, having been on the losing end of her mayoral race back in 2010. Oleson has a lot of experience however, compared to her main rival, Wildrose candidate Garnett Genius, who is just 24. However, Genius has some political experience, having interned in the Prime Minister's office. In 2008, this was a strong Tory riding, as Evans was elected with 63% of the vote. She'd probably be re-elected if she were running again. However, the seat is open, and it's anyone's guess who will win at this point. It is a weaker riding for the Wildrose however. They didn't run a candidate here in 2008, and they won just 3% of the vote in 2004 as the Alberta Alliance.

St. Albert

St. Albert is another suburban Edmonton riding, with a past of electing some Liberals, and even an NDPer. Retiring Tory incumbent Ken Allred won 54% of the vote here in 2008, against the Liberal incumbent, Jack Flaherty who won 36% of the vote. With the Liberals down and out in Alberta this election, they are unlikely to win this seat back. Plus, reports tell us there Liberal campaign there is non-existent. So, this looks like another WRP-PC fight. The Tories are running local businessman Stephen Khan. Wildrose is running former St. Albert city councillor James Burrows. With experience on their side, and having an open seat, I like the Wildrose's chances in this riding. Their only thing holding them back is having no candidate in 2008, and just a 4% showing under the Alberta Alliance banner in 2004.

Stony Plain

Stony Plain is an exurban riding, located to the west of Edmonton. The Tory incumbent, Fred Lindsay is retiring, making this an open seat. Lindsay won a strong 63% of the vote back in 2008, but without an incumbent, the Tories could be in trouble here. They are running a strong candidate however, in former Stony Plain mayor Ken Lemke. Wildrose is running local businessman Hal Tagg. Wildrose won 6% of the vote here in 2008, one of their better districts in the region. However, the Tories have a strong candidate, and a strong base of support in this riding. It's going to be another interesting race to watch.

Vermilion-Lloydminster

This riding, located east of Edmonton on the Saskatchewan border is our final open seat in Alberta's north. The outgoing Tory MLA, Lloyd Snelgrove won a huge 81% of the vote back in 2008. The Tories are running former Lloydminster city councillor Richard Starke. Wildrose is running local farmer Danny Hozack. The WRP didn't run a candidate here in 2008, but it was one of their better ridings in the province in 2004 where they finished second with 26% of the vote. There is a strong conservative base in this riding, and with it now opened up, it looks like Hozack will have the edge.

Other races to watch:

With the Wildrose Party expected to sweep the region, our focus lies on the ridings where they might not win.

Battle River-Wainwright

Battle River-Wainwright is arguably the strongest strictly rural Tory seat in northern Alberta. Their incumbent is Doug Griffiths who won this seat in 2008 with a massive 79% of the vote. The question is, how many of these voters are conservative voters, and how many are Griffiths voters. He was certainly strengthened by a lack of a Wildrose candidate in 2008. In 2004 when the Alberta Alliance ran, Griffiths received a still strong 65% of the vote, while the AA finished 2^nd with 15%. The Wildrose Party is running a strong candidate in Dave Nelson, a local rancher and school trustee.

Leduc-Beaumont

Leduc-Beaumont is a suburban riding located on the south side of Edmonton. The riding may be moderated by Edmonton's sphere of influence, giving the Tories a boost in this riding. Their incumbent is George Rogers who won 65% of the vote in the riding's predecessor, Leduc-Beaumont-Devon. Wildrose on the other hand won just 7%. The WRP will be running businessman Dave Stasiewich. His chances in this riding will all depend on how well the party does in Edmonton's suburbs.

Spruce Grove-St. Albert

If the Tories win one riding in northern Alberta outside of Edmonton, it will be this suburban Edmonton seat. The incumbent for the riding is Doug Horner, the leader of the party's right wing. Horner ran for the leadership of the Tories, but lost to Alison Redford. I predict that right wing voters here will be less tempted to vote Wildrose because they will be comfortable with a strong MLA like Horner. Horner also did well in the last election in the riding's predecessor of Spruce Grove-Sturgeon-St. Albert where he won 61% of the vote. Wildrose didn't even run a candidate. When the Alberta Alliance did run a candidate in 2004 they won just 5% of the vote. The WRP will be running Travis Hughes, a Certified Engineering Technologist.

Stratchona-Sherwood Park

Strathcona-Sherwood Park is another suburban Edmonton riding that the Tories have a good chance of retaining. Their candidate is incumbent Dave Quest who won the predecessor riding of Strathcona with 66% of the vote in 2008. Wildrose did not field a candidate, and the Alberta Alliance won just 3% of the vote here in 2004. The Wildrose Party is running Paul Nemetchek, a railway signals and communication technician. If the WRP wins this seat, than it will be a terrible night for the Tories.

West Yellowhead

West Yellowhead, nestled along the BC border will be a race to watch just because it is the upstart Alberta Party's best chance of winning a seat. The centrist Alberta Party is led by former Hinton mayor Glenn Taylor. He is also the party's candidate in this riding. Taylor was excluded from the debates, despite the party currently holding a seating in the Legislative Assembly. They are usually included in most polls, and are usually around the 2% mark. Taylor's exclusion from the debate will in all likelihood kill his chances of picking up this seat, no matter how strong his campaign is here. The only silver lining for him is that this is probably one of the more left leaning rural ridings in the province (if you can call it that). It did vote NDP in the 1980s and went Liberal in 1993. The combined left of centre vote in this riding in 2008 was 42%, and Taylor will have to win almost all of that to win the riding. That will be near impossible with both the Liberals and the NDP fielding candidates. Now, Taylor may also attract some Tory votes, weakening their incumbent Robin Campbell who secured 54% of the vote here in the last election. This may allow the Wildrose candidate, forester Stuart Taylor to come up the middle and win. The WRP however won just 4% of the votes here in 2008.

Southern and Central Alberta

Southern and Central Alberta will be Wildrose country on Monday, and you will be hard pressed to find a riding in the region that won't go WRP. In my view, with Wildrose under performs in the region, there may be up to three ridings that they could lose:

Banff-Cochrane

Perhaps the weakest riding in the southern Alberta for the Wildrose Party is Banff-Cochrane. The party did not run a candidate in 2008 and the Alberta Alliance won just 6% of the vote here in 2004. However, the riding will be an open seat, as Tory MLA Janis Tarchuk will be vacating the seat. This riding also has a large left wing base, as the combined Liberal-NDP-Green vote from 2008 totaled 49%, about the same as Tarchuk received. It's a remote possibility that the Liberals or the NDP could come up the middle and take this, but that's probably a pipe dream for either party (for the record, the Liberals appear to have the better shot of the two parties). The Tories hope to retain the seat with their candidate, master electrician Ron Casey. Wildrose is running rancher Tom Copithorne. I would have to give Copithorne the edge in this riding at this point, but it could prove to be one of the election night surprises.

Lethbridge-East

Lethrbidge-East has been only red dot in a sea of blue in southern Alberta in every election since 1993. That is the Liberals have won this riding in every election since 1993. The current MLA is Bridget Pastoor who was elected as a Liberal in 2008 with 42% of the vote. However, she switched parties to the Tories last year and will be running for re-election as one. The question for this riding is, is this a Liberal seat, or is this a riding willing to vote for a centrist candidate no matter the stripe? If it's the latter, it will help Pastoor in her battle against the more right wing Wildrose Party. The Liberals, after all are polling in the basement in southern Alberta, and therefore are unlikely to win this seat. But if they do get a significant proportion of the vote, they could ensure enough of a vote split to allow the Wildrose Party to win. The NDP also has a strong presence in the city which could further enhance Wildroses' chances here. Wildrose is running Kent Prestage here, a local businessman and public servant. The party won 6% of the vote here in 2008.

Lethbridge-West

The best chance for the NDP to win a seat outside of its base in Edmonton is here in Lethbridge-West, home of the University of Lethbridge. Unlike Lethbridge-East however, Lethbridge-West has never elected a Liberal since the city was divided into two ridings in 1971. One poll shows the NDP at 17% in southern Alberta, no doubt buoyed by the strong candidacy of their candidate Shannon Phillips, a researcher for the Alberta Federation of Labour. Her campaign was recently boosted by the endorsement by former Lethbridge mayor Bob Tarleck. However, the NDP only won 10% of the vote here in 2008, so they will have to count on some Liberals votes in order to win. The Liberals won 35% of the vote here in 2008 for the record. The Tories may not be a factor in this riding, as their MLA Greg Weadick won just 44% of the vote in 2008, and will have that number decrease substantially if polls are to be believed. The Wildrose Party is running Kevin Kinahan, a school principal in nearby Taber. Vote splitting will sure help Kinahan's chances in this riding. The Wildrose won 7% of the vote in 2008, and will have to increase that to win the race.

Other open seats:

With their high polling numbers, it doesn't appear likely that the Wildrose Party will lose any of the open seats in southern and central Alberta.

Wildrose candidate Bruce Rowe, the mayor of Beiseker, will be the most likely victor in rural Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills where the party is benefiting from a strong 21% 2^nd place finish in 2008. They will also have the best odds of winning Lacombe-Ponoka. They are running insurance sales manager Rod Fox there. The WRP won just 6% of the votes there in 2008, but the Alberta Alliance won 18% in 2004 and were in 2^nd place. The race in Cardston-Taber-Warner, in the heart of Mormon Country on the US border, won't even be close. This was the only seat that the Alberta Alliance won in 2004, and the WRP barely lost in 2008 by just 49 votes. They are running Gary Bikman, the Deputy Mayor of Stirling as their candidate. The race probably won't be close in Highwood either where Wildrose leader Danielle Smith is running. Wildrose won 12% of the vote in this exurban Calgary seat in 2008. While not the strongest support, you'd have to think that their leader would win in the heart of Wildrose country. Also in the heart of Wildrose country is the riding of Little Bow where Wildrose won 23% of the vote in 2008, one of their best finished. There is no doubt they'll win this open seat with numbers like that. They are running Vulcan County councillor Ian Donovan. Finally, the riding of Medicine Hat will also be vacated. For an urban riding, Medicine Hat is quite conservative having never elected a Liberal since 1930. Its urban nature could prevent a Wildrose victory, so it might still be a riding to watch. They are running businessman Blake Pedersen against another businessman, Darren Hirsch of the PCs. Wildrose won 7% of the vote in Medicine Hat in 2008.

Provincial by-elections in BC

Moving away from the Alberta elections for a moment, I am obliged to make a post about two provincial by-elections being held tomorrow in British Columbia. Two ridings, Chilliwack-Hope and Port Moody-Coquitlam were vacated last year, and they will finally be filled tomorrow.

Like Alberta, the province of British Columbia is undergoing a political transformation. The governing right wing provincial Liberal Party's grand coalition of social and economic conservatives and urban moderates is beginning to crumble. Former Premier Gordon Campbell resigned last year as one of the least popular Premiers in the country. He was replaced by Christy Clark, who represents the urban moderate wing of the party. Immediately after becoming the new premier, Clark had to face the infamous HST referendum last summer, which called for the abolishment of the unpopular tax reform brought in by the Campbell government. Much to her chagrin, the referendum passed, indicating the level of unpopularity now facing the governing party.

British Columbia has long had a two party system, with the left wing NDP competing against a party opposing it. That party is currently the Liberals, but as mentioned, that coalition is crumbling under the weight of the BC Conservative Party. Long in the wilderness, the Conservatives have been buoyed by the election of former MP John Cummins as their new leader. This has made the party a legitimate option for conservatives in the province who are dissatisfied with the governing Liberal Party. Recent polls have shown the Liberals and Conservatives about even in support, in the low 20s, well behind the NDP which is polling in the mid 40s, only slightly higher than in the last election. But with a divided right, the NDP looks destined for a large majority.

Anyways, this leads us to the by-elections tomorrow. Both ridings were won in the last election by the Liberal Party. With the Liberals now polling as low as they are, it is quite possible that they could lose both seats.

Chilliwack-Hope

Chilliwack-Hope poll map from 2009

Chilliwack-Hope is located in the western Fraser Valley region of BC. It consists of the southern and eastern parts of the City of Chilliwack, as well the communities of Kent, Hope and Harrison Hot Springs.

Chilliwack-Hope is a fairly conservative riding. It has never elected an NDPer to either the British Columbia Legislative Assembly or to the federal House of Commons. Having said that, the NDP does have some pockets of strength in the riding. The NDP is particularly strong in the north half of the riding, where they won all but three polls in the last election. However, the north half of the riding is sparsely populated, and its only major population centre is the town of Hope. The southern half of the riding is very strong for the BC Liberals. In the last provincial election, all but 3 polls there went to the Liberals. Federally this division also exists, just replace the Liberals with the Conservatives.

Location of Chilliwack-Hope

MLAs since 1894:

T.E. Kitchen, Opp. (1894-1898)

C.W. Munro, Prog./Liberal (1898-1909)

S.A. Cawley, Cons. (1909-1916)

E.D. Barrow, Liberal (1916-1928)

Wm. Atkinson, Cons. (1928-1933)

E.D. Barrow, Liberal (1933-1937) 2^nd time

L.H. Eyres, Cons./Coalition (1937-1952)

W.K. Kiernan, Soc. Cred. (1952-1972)

H.W. Schroeder, Soc. Cred. (1972-1986)

Jn. Jansen, Soc. Cred. (1986-1991)

Rbt. Chisholm, Liberal (1991-1996)

Barry Penner, Liberal (1996-2011)

Many are suggesting that thanks to vote splitting, the NDP could win this riding for the first time in its history The party received 33% of the vote here in the last election. The Liberals won the riding with 53% of the vote. The Conservatives were third with 7%. The NDP is running Gwen O'Mahony, a health advocate. The Liberals are running Laurie Throness, a former political staffer for former MP Chuck Strahl. The Conservatives are running John Martin, a criminologist.

I have no idea who is going to win, but I think it does look good for the NDP. They have a base of about 1/3 of the vote here, and will probably get a bit more than that. If you take into consideration recent polls, where the Liberals are down over 20 points from the last election, while the Conservatives are up by the same amount, it means those two parties should indeed split evenly in this particular riding, at about 30% each, giving the NDP the win. However, I don't think that will happen. The riding is less supportive of the type of populism that is espoused by the BC Conservatives. We saw this last year when the riding rejected the HST abolishment referendum. So, my gut feeling is the Liberals will edge out the NDP by a narrow margin, perhaps around 38-36. This leaves the Conservatives with the bulk of the rest, around 26%.

Chilliwack Hope candidates

Port Moody-Coquitlam

Port Moody-Coquitlam poll map from 2009.

Port Moody-Coquitlam is located in BC's lower mainland. It consists of the City of Port Moody, as well as the villages of Belcarra and Anmore, and the northwestern corner of the City of Coquitlam.

This riding is more of a bellwether riding, having supported the NDP in the past. The Liberals however have held it since 1996. Federally, the riding spans two ridings, Port Moody—Westwood—Port Coquitlam and New Westminster—Coquitlam. Two ridings are divided by the Burrard Inlet. Port Moody—Westwood—Port Coquitlam is held by the Conservatives, and New Westminster—Coquitlam is held by the NDP. The Burrard Inlet also divides the riding politically. The north side supports the Liberals, while the south side supports the NDP. There are less people living on the north side however, but the Liberals do so strong there that they are able to win the riding by getting over 70% of the vote in many polls. The NDP were only able to win one poll in this area, and tied another. South of the Inlet, the two parties are more even. The same patterns exist on the federal level, and are reinforced by having opposing members of Parliament. The Tories nearly swept the area north of the Burrard Inlet, while the two parties are more competitive on the south.

Location of Port Moody-Coquitlam in the Greater Vancouver Area.

MLAs since 1966:

David Barrett, CCF/NDP (1966-1975)

G.H. Kerster, Soc. Cred. (1975-1979)

S.M. Leggatt, NDP (1979-1983)

M.W. Rose, NDP (1983-1991)

Ms. Barbara Copping, NDP (1991-1996)

Ms. C.J. Clark, Liberal (1996-2005)

I.J.S. Black, Liberal (2005-2011)

 

The NDP has a much better chance of winning this riding than in Chilliwack-Hope. The Liberals won it in the last election with 52% to the NDP's 40%. The NDP is also running a star candidate in that of former Port Moody mayor, Joe Trasolini. The fact that he is the former mayor of the city means that Trasolini will play better in the north side of Port Moody which went overwhelmingly Liberal last time. The Liberals are running Dennis Marsden, a credit union branch manager. The Conservatives are running Christine Clarke, the Director and Chair of Advocacy for the Canadian Skin Patient Alliance. The fact that her name is similar to the Premiers' has not been ignored. Add to the fact that this used to be Premier Clark's riding.

There was a poll conducted in February that showed the NDP and the Conservatives neck and neck in this riding at 40% and 39.5% respectively. The Liberals were far behind at 18.5%. My guess is that the NDP will walk away with about 45% of the vote, the Conservatives at 37%, leaving the Liberals at 18%. 

Port Moody-Coquitlam candidates

Edited to add:

Liberal expectations are low going into these by-elections, but I have to think that it would be a huge set back if they lost both. Some are suggesting an NDP win in Chilliwack-Kent would be good news for the Liberals, as they would show the dangers of vote splitting. However, a third place finish in either race would be a disaster. A win for the Liberals would be holding on to just one seat.

For the NDP, they have to win at least one of the by-elections to keep their momentum going. Losing both wouldn't be very good for them. The same goes for the Conservatives, they have to win one, or come in 2nd in both (ahead of the Liberals) to show they are a credible right wing alternative to the Liberals. There are certainly high stakes in these two by-elections for all three parties.

2012 Alberta election prediction (April 16)

Current projection map.

There is now one week before the Alberta provincial election, being held next Monday. In the last week, we have yet to see much change in the polls. The right wing Wild Rose Party is still on top, regularly polling in the low 40s. The governing Progressive Conservatives are still typically polling around 30%.

Last week, we saw the televised leaders debates. All four party leaders had their strengths and weaknesses, and there was no clear winner. There has only been one poll released that was conducted post-debate. That poll, conducted by Return on Insight for the CBC showed the race between the two main parties getting closer, with the Tories gaining steam at 36%, while the WRP remains at about 43%. However, the poll seems somewhat dubious. While those numbers seem plausible, the regional numbers smell fishy. They show the Tories just four points between the WRP in Calgary, and the Tories behind the WRP in Edmonton by a greater margin of six percent! Unless another poll shows similar numbers, I am not going to put much faith into this poll, by an organization I've never heard of and which hasn't done a poll yet this campaign.

Most of my numbers were based on polls released by Abacus, Forum Research and Think HQ Public Affairs, last week. I also took into consideration comments left here on my blog, as well as other sources I've come across. I was also sent an email by the guy who runs the ChangeAlberta site, advocating that progressives vote strategically this election. I found the site to be a great resource in terms of determining how certain candidates are doing. I'd still like more comments, of course. The more people disagree with certain predictions, the more likely I will make major changes to those races. I'd also like to get views from across the spectrum, since taking into consideration many different view points will insure the least biased predictions.

Here are my current numbers: 

Riding	PC	WRP	Lib	NDP	Oth	Winning candidate
Airdrie	30	54	6	8	2	Rob Anderson
Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater	39	47	4	10	-	Travis Olson
Banff-Cochrane	12	47	26	17	-	Tom Copithorne
Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock	37	49	5	6	2	Link Byfield
Battle River-Wainwright	45	49	4	3	1	Dave Nelson
Bonnyville-Cold Lake	41	51	4	6	-	Roy Doonanco
Calgary-Acadia	37	47	7	7	2	Richard Jones
Calgary-Bow	32	51	8	7	2	Tim Dyck
Calgary-Buffalo	22	41	27	8	2	Mike Blanchard
Calgary-Cross	36	45	6	11	2	Hardyal Mann
Calgary-Currie	24	44	16	8	8	Corrie Adolph
Calgary-East	32	48	9	9	1	Jesse Minhas
Calgary-Elbow	37	42	11	7	3	James Cole
Calgary-Fish Creek	36	50	7	7	-	Heather Forsyth
Calgary-Foothills	32	48	14	6	-	Dustin Nau
Calgary-Fort	34	48	11	9	2	Jeevan Mangat
Calgary-Glenmore	24	58	11	7	-	Paul Hinman
Calgary-Greenway	30	54	7	9	-	Ron Leech
Calgary-Hawkwood	25	52	9	8	6	David Yager
Calgary-Hays	35	51	7	7	-	Wayne Anderson
Calgary-Klein	24	49	9	16	2	Jeremy Nixon
Calgary-Lougheed	36	50	7	7	-	John Carpay
Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill	32	51	8	7	2	Roy Alexander
Calgary-McCall	26	46	18	7	3	Grant Galpin
Calgary-Mountain View	14	41	34	9	2	Shane McAllister
Calgary-North West	27	54	8	7	4	Chris Challis
Calgary-Northern Hills	33	51	8	8	-	Prasad Panda
Calgary-Shaw	33	51	7	7	2	Jeff Wilson
Calgary-South East	37	51	6	6	-	Bill Jarvis
Calgary-Varsity	20	46	22	8	4	Rob Solinger
Calgary-West	29	53	8	6	4	Andrew Constantinidis
Cardston-Taber-Warner	12	77	3	8	-	Gary Bikman
Chestermere-Rocky View	34	50	11	5	-	Bruce McAllister
Cypress-Medicine Hat	23	52	15	10	-	Drew Barnes
Drayton Valley-Devon	33	54	5	8	-	Dean Shular
Drumheller-Stettler	29	56	5	9	2	Rick Strankman
Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley	22	63	1	14	-	Kelly Hudson
Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview	27	29	6	37	1	Deron Bilous
Edmonton-Calder	28	31	7	31	3	Rich Neumann or David Eggen
Edmonton-Castle Downs	39	32	17	10	2	Thomas Lukaszuk
Edmonton Centre	18	31	32	19	-	Laurie Blakeman
Edmonton-Decore	33	33	16	18	-	Janice Sarich or Chris Bataluk
Edmonton-Ellerslie	31	34	14	18	3	Jackie Lovely
Edmonton-Glenora	28	30	17	19	6	Don Koziak
Edmonton-Gold Bar	29	32	16	20	3	Linda Carlson
Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood	18	28	5	46	3	Brian Mason
Edmonton-Manning	36	31	11	19	3	Peter Sandhu
Edmonton-McClung	36	31	24	6	3	David Xiao
Edmonton-Meadowlark	20	31	36	11	2	Raj Sherman
Edmonton-Mill Creek	43	34	11	10	2	Gene Zwozdesky
Edmonton-Mill Woods	31	32	16	14	7	Joanne Autio
Edmonton-Riverview	25	32	32	9	2	John Corie or Arif Khan
Edmonton-Rutherford	32	32	22	9	5	Fred Horne or Kyle McLeod
Edmonton-South West	43	38	12	5	2	Matt Jeneroux
Edmonton-Strathcona	16	27	10	45	2	Rachel Notley
Edmonton-Whitemud	46	29	17	5	2	David Hancock
Fort McMurray-Conklin	32	45	14	8	-	Doug Faulkner
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo	29	48	15	8	-	Guy Boutilier
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville	37	50	3	8	2	Shannon Stubbs
Grande Prairie-Smoky	31	55	4	9	1	Todd Loewen
Grande Prairie-Wapiti	39	45	5	10	1	Ethane Jarvis
Highwood	18	68	5	9	-	Danielle Smith
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake	26	53	6	13	2	Kerry Towle
Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills	35	49	6	10	-	Shayne Saskiw
Lacombe-Ponoka	36	51	4	7	2	Rod Fox
Leduc-Beaumont	31	32	8	7	3	David Stasiewich
Lesser Slave Lake	34	49	9	7	1	Darryl Boisson
Lethbridge-East	18	48	22	12	-	Kent Prestage
Lethbridge-West	20	41	18	19	2	Kevin Kinahan
Little Bow	18	68	4	10	-	Ian Donovan
Livingstone-Macleod	24	55	9	11	1	Pat Stier
Medicine Hat	10	52	26	11	1	Blake Pedersen
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills	22	68	2	8	-	Bruce Rowe
Peace River	32	49	5	14	-	Alan Forsyth
Red Deer-North	20	51	14	13	2	Randy Weins
Red Deer-South	18	50	19	11	2	Nathan Stephan
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre	26	57	7	10	-	Joe Anglin
Sherwood Park	35	40	9	7	9	Garnett Genius
Spruce Grove-St. Albert	50	35	9	6	-	Doug Horner
St. Albert	27	46	12	7	8	James Burrows
Stony Plain	32	51	6	7	4	Hal Tagg
Strathcona-Sherwood Park	55	32	7	6	-	Dave Quest
Strathmore-Brooks	35	52	3	9	1	Alex Wychopen
Vermilion-Lloydminster	31	60	3	5	1	Danny Hozack
West Yellowhead	21	43	11	10	15	Stuart Taylor
Wetaskiwin-Camrose	38	50	5	8	1	Trevor Miller
Whitecourt-Ste. Anne	29	61	4	6	-	Maryann Chichak

Changes since my last prediction:

My only changes appear to be in the Edmonton area, since that is where most of the close races seem to be.

Edmonton-Calder: I found some redistributed numbers from the last election, and they show that Edmonton-Calder will be getting less NDP-friendly. This has reduced my NDP numbers in this seat to a tie with the Wildrose Party.

Edmonton Centre: It appears the Liberals are running a strong campaign here, so I've switched this from WRP to Liberal.

Edmonton-Decore and Edmonton-Rutherford: The Tory strength in Edmonton has weakened slightly, meaning these two riding is no longer PC, but are WRP-PC ties in my projection.

Edmonton-Ellerslie, Edmonton-Glenora, Edmonton-Gold Bar, Edmonton-Mill Woods: The slight dip in Tory support in Edmonton has meant that these riding is being have switched from PC to WRP.

Spruce Grove-St. Albert: I have heard from numerous sources that if one PC incumbent wins, it will be Doug Horner. The man is on the right of the party, so why elect the WRP here?

Strathcona-Sherwood Park: This riding is similar to Spruce Grove-St. Albert, in that is located in the Edmonton suburbs. I'm not sure how popular incumbent PC MP Dave Quest is, but he did get a higher percentage of the vote than Horner in the last election.

2012 Alberta election prediction (April 10)

Projected map.

There are now less than two weeks until the April 23 Alberta election. Not much has changed in the polls since my last projection on March 31. The upstart Wildrose Party remains poised to win a majority government.

Most of the polls released over the last week show the Wildrose Party in the low 40s, the Tories around 30%, and the NDP and Liberals tied in the low teens. This is about where the parties stood for my last projection.

While the Wildrose Party had the momentum during the first week of the campaign, they seem to have hit a plateau, and the election appears to be on cruise control. The WRP has increased their support in rural Alberta, but it appears to have come to the expense of the party in Edmonton, the only part of the province where they are behind the Tories.

Here are my riding by riding projections:

Riding	PC	WRP	Lib	NDP	Oth	Winning candidate
Airdrie	24	65	4	7	-	Rob Anderson
Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater	39	46	5	10	-	Travis Olson
Banff-Cochrane	16	47	26	13	-	Tom Copithorne
Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock	37	47	7	6	2	Link Byfield
Battle River-Wainwright	45	47	6	3	1	Dave Nelson
Bonnyville-Cold Lake	42	50	4	6	-	Roy Doonanco
Calgary-Acadia	30	55	6	9	-	Richard Jones
Calgary-Bow	28	49	15	7	1	Tim Dyck
Calgary-Buffalo	17	43	31	8	1	Mike Blanchard
Calgary-Cross	37	45	5	11	2	Hardyal Mann
Calgary-Currie	18	42	25	8	7	Corrie Adolph
Calgary-East	39	45	9	9	-	Jesse Minhas
Calgary-Elbow	28	44	18	6	4	James Cole
Calgary-Fish Creek	29	54	10	7	-	Heather Forsyth
Calgary-Foothills	30	46	16	6	-	Dustin Nau
Calgary-Fort	31	44	4	18	1	Jeevan Mangat
Calgary-Glenmore	13	58	21	8	-	Paul Hinman
Calgary-Greenway	27	53	10	10	-	Ron Leech
Calgary-Hawkwood	21	52	17	8	2	David Yager
Calgary-Hays	31	54	8	7	-	Wayne Anderson
Calgary-Klein	27	49	10	12	2	Jeremy Nixon
Calgary-Lougheed	35	50	9	6	-	John Carpay
Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill	30	48	14	7	1	Roy Alexander
Calgary-McCall	21	43	29	7	-	Grant Galpin
Calgary-Mountain View	8	44	38	9	1	Shane McAllister
Calgary-North West	23	58	10	7	2	Chris Challis
Calgary-Northern Hills	31	51	11	7	-	Prasad Panda
Calgary-Shaw	34	52	6	7	1	Jeff Wilson
Calgary-South East	33	54	6	7	-	Bill Jarvis
Calgary-Varsity	18	47	26	7	2	Rob Solinger
Calgary-West	25	56	11	7	1	Andrew Constantinidis
Cardston-Taber-Warner	8	87	2	3	-	Gary Bikman
Chestermere-Rocky View	27	61	8	4	-	Bruce McAllister
Cypress-Medicine Hat	27	52	15	6	-	Drew Barnes
Drayton Valley-Devon	32	51	9	8	-	Dean Shular
Drumheller-Stettler	33	56	6	5	-	Rick Strankman
Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley	21	63	2	14	-	Kelly Hudson
Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview	30	29	3	36	2	Deron Bilous
Edmonton-Calder	27	33	2	39	-	David Eggen
Edmonton-Castle Downs	42	28	17	10	3	Thomas Lukaszuk
Edmonton Centre	22	29	28	20	-	Barb de Groot
Edmonton-Decore	37	32	18	13	-	Janice Sarich
Edmonton-Ellerslie	35	31	13	18	3	Naresh Bhardwaj
Edmonton-Glenora	31	28	19	15	7	Heather Klimchuk
Edmonton-Gold Bar	29	28	23	16	4	David Dorward
Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood	20	22	3	51	4	Brian Mason
Edmonton-Manning	37	29	10	20	4	Peter Sandhu
Edmonton-McClung	34	26	29	8	3	David Xiao
Edmonton-Meadowlark	24	29	35	9	3	Raj Sherman
Edmonton-Mill Creek	43	31	12	14	-	Gene Zwozdesky
Edmonton-Mill Woods	33	30	17	14	6	Sohail Quadri
Edmonton-Riverview	28	29	31	9	3	Arif Khan
Edmonton-Rutherford	35	29	22	10	4	Fred Horne
Edmonton-South West	41	34	19	6	-	Matt Jeneroux
Edmonton-Strathcona	17	28	4	51	-	Rachel Notley
Edmonton-Whitemud	49	28	15	5	3	David Hancock
Fort McMurray-Conklin	31	42	18	8	-	Doug Faulkner
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo	28	45	19	8	-	Guy Boutilier
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville	39	48	4	8	1	Shannon Stubbs
Grande Prairie-Smoky	34	52	5	9	-	Todd Loewen
Grande Prairie-Wapiti	38	43	9	10	-	Ethane Jarvis
Highwood	22	68	5	5	-	Danielle Smith
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake	30	54	6	9	1	Kerry Towle
Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills	34	46	10	10	-	Shayne Saskiw
Lacombe-Ponoka	37	48	8	7	-	Rod Fox
Leduc-Beaumont	35	47	9	7	2	David Stasiewich
Lesser Slave Lake	33	47	13	7	-	Darryl Boisson
Lethbridge-East	13	48	31	8	-	Kent Prestage
Lethbridge-West	12	49	27	12	-	Kevin Kinahan
Little Bow	22	68	4	6	-	Ian Donovan
Livingstone-Macleod	28	55	9	7	1	Pat Stier
Medicine Hat	14	52	26	7	1	Blake Pedersen
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills	26	68	2	4	-	Bruce Rowe
Peace River	31	48	7	14	-	Alan Forsyth
Red Deer-North	24	51	14	9	2	Randy Weins
Red Deer-South	22	50	19	7	2	Nathan Stephan
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre	30	57	7	6	-	Joe Anglin
Sherwood Park	31	40	18	5	6	Garnett Genius
Spruce Grove-St. Albert	31	37	21	5	-	Travis Hughes
St. Albert	24	42	28	5	1	James Burrows
Stony Plain	32	51	11	6	-	Hal Tagg
Strathcona-Sherwood Park	38	42	15	5	-	Paul Nemetchek
Strathmore-Brooks	39	53	3	5	-	Alex Wychopen
Vermilion-Lloydminster	34	57	4	5	-	Danny Hozack
West Yellowhead	21	40	17	12	10	Stuart Taylor
Wetaskiwin-Camrose	38	49	6	8	1	Trevor Miller
Whitecourt-Ste. Anne	29	60	5	6		Maryann Chichak

Summary

 I now have the Wildrose Party projected to win 69 seats in the 87 seat Alberta legislature. This up two from my last projection. The Tories are projected to form official opposition with 12 seats, up 3 from my last projection. The NDP is projected to win 4, and the Liberals 2 (down 2). The change does not add up as I projected 3 ties last time.

The Wildrose Party increases came from rural Alberta, while the Tories gained from the WRP and the Liberals in Edmonton.

Methodology
For all of you who are not familiar with my projections, I base my predictions on not only poll numbers, but "qualitative" data as well- that is from what I read about local campaigns, and what people tell me. So, if you have any disagreements with any of  my predictions, please let me know, and I can adjust my figures next time.  The point of my predictions is to be as accurate as possible.