While we are in the
midst of a federal election campaign, there are two provincial
by-election campaigns that might briefly draw the spotlight away.
Today, voters in the Ontario riding of Simcoe North and in the
Alberta riding of Calgary-Foothills will be heading to the polls to
elect new members of their respective provincial legislatures. Both
by-elections were called for today, early enough in the extra-long
federal election campaign so as to not be too much of a distraction
from it. And before Labour day to boot, which will likely be when the
federal election campaign really kicks off.
Simcoe North, Ontario
As you may recall, Patrick Brown, a Conservative backbencher in
Stephen Harper's government ran for leader of the Ontario Progressive
Conservatives, and won, defeating early frontrunner Christine
Elliott, wife of the late Jim Flaherty, Canada's former Finance
Minister. Brown's candidacy was originally considered a long shot,
but he had a strong campaign, gaining endorsements from people like
Wayne Gretzky and Indian Prime Minister Narenda Modhi. After his
election, Brown resigned his seat of Barrie in the House of Commons.
After Brown's election as leader of the Ontario Tories, the question
turned to who would give up their seat so that Brown could sit in
Queen's Park. Barrie was won by the Liberals in the 2014 provincial
election, so that was out of the question. The question would linger
until July when Simcoe North MPP Garfield Dunlop announced he would
resign his seat for Brown. Dunlop was a noted opponent of Brown in
his leadership race, so may have resigned so that he didn't have to
work under Brown as leader. What was even more helpful for Brown is
that Simcoe North is located immediately adjacent to Barrie, the
riding he represented in the House of Commons.
Geography
Simcoe North is a mostly rural riding located in Central Ontario,
north of Barrie. It runs from the Penetanguishene Peninsula abutting
into Georgian Bay on the west, to the northern shores of Lake Simcoe
in the southeast, and the Severn River in the north. The riding
contains three major population centres; Orillia in the eastern part
of the riding, and the twin towns of Midland and Penetanguishene in
the west. Additionally, the riding contains five townships; Tiny,
Tay, Severn, Oro-Medonte and Ramara, plus two Chippewa (Ojibwe)
Indian Reserves; Christian island (in Georgian Bay) and Mnjikaning
First Nation, home of Casino Rama.
Demographics
Most of the riding is of British Isles descent (English, Scottish and Irish), with a significant population (one sixth) reporting French ancestry as well. One in ten residents of the riding report having German ancestry. In all, 89% of the riding is White, with most of the rest being Aboriginal (9%). English is the mother tongue of 90% of inhabitants and there is a small residual French population (4%), most of whom live in the historically French community of Penetanguishene and the surrounding peninsula. German is the mother tongue of just over 1% of the population. 72% of the population is Christian, most of whom are Protestants. Just over a quarter of the population is Catholic, and just over a quarter of the population belongs to no religion. The riding is slightly poorer than the province as a whole, with the average individual income being $38,000 while the median income is $29,000 (compared to Ontario which is $42,000 and $31,000 respectively). The leading industries in the riding are Health care and social assistance, retail and manufacturing.
History
Simcoe North was created in 1996 when the Mike Harris government
reduced the number of seats in Ontario to match the ridings used in
the federal House of Commons. Simcoe North was mostly created out of
Simcoe East, which included both Penetanguishene and Orillia. The
remaining part of the riding came from Muskoka-Georgian Bay, which
included Midland. Since its first election in 1999, Garfield Dunlop
has been the riding's MPP. The riding is generally a safe Tory seat,
though Dunlop was never able to win more than 55% of the vote. His
lowest share of the vote was in 2014, when Dunlop won 44% of the
vote, but was still able to beat the Liberal's Fred Larsen by nearly
6000 votes. Federally, the riding has been Conservative since 2006,
and has voted for the Tories for much of its history.
Including the riding's predecessor of Simcoe East, the area has voted
for the Tories in every election since 1937. The last time the
Liberals won here was in 1934. The last time a party on the left won
here was in 1919 when the United Farmers of Ontario claimed the seat.
MPPs:
Simcoe North (1867-1874)
1) Wm. Lount, Liberal (1867-1871)
2) W.D. Ardagh, Cons. (1871-1874)
Simcoe East (1875-1999)
3) Jn. Kean, Cons. (1875-1879)
4) H.H. Cook, Liberal (1879-1882)
5) G.A. Drury, Liberal (1882-1890)
6) A. Miscampbell, Cons. (1890-1902)
7) J.B. Trudhope, Liberal (1902-1911)
8) J.I. Hartt, Cons. (1911-1919)
9) J.B. Johnston, U.F.O. (1919-1923)
10) Wm. Finlayson, Cons. (1923-1934)
11) G.E. Tanner, Liberal (1934-1937)
*) Wm. Finlayson, Cons. (1937-1939) 2nd
time
12) G.A. Drew, Cons. (1939-1943)
13) J.D. McPhee, Prog. Cons. (1943-1954)
14) L.A. Letherby, Prog. Cons. (1954-1967)
15) G.E. Smith, Prog. Cons. (1967-1981)
15) G.E. Smith, Prog. Cons. (1967-1981)
16) A.K. McLean, Prog. Cons. (1981-1999)
Simcoe North (1999-present)
17) Garfield Dunlop, Prog. Cons (1999-2015)
Political geography
With Dunlop receiving his lowest ever vote share and the Liberals
receiving their highest vote share since 2003 in last year's
election, the 2014 election gave us a good map to identify political
cleavages in the riding. Dunlop's near-6000 vote victory allowed him
to win most polls in the riding, but he only won a majority of the
vote in one municipality (Severn). He was strong in most of the rural
parts of the riding, winning 49% in Ramara, 48% in Oro-Medonte, and
44% in Tay. His weakest township was Tiny, where he won 38% of the
vote. He was weaker in the urban areas, but still managed to win the
most votes in Orillia (41%) and Midland (37%). The Liberals won just
one municipality, Penetanguishene, with 41% of the vote to Dunlop's
31%. This Liberals were especially strong on the Penetanguishene
Peninsula, home to the region's ancestral Francophone population. The
Liberals also won the Christian Island Indian Reserve with 52% of the
vote, but the NDP won the Mnjikaning First Nation with 42% of the
vote. The Green Party was strongest in Tiny Township, where they won
12% of the vote.
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| Simcoe North results by municipality in 2014 |
Except for 2011 when Dunlop won nearly every poll in the riding, the
Liberals at least are usually able to win the Penetanguishene
Peninsula area. In 2003, they also won Midland and parts of Orillia,
but these areas swung back to the Tories in 2007. During this time
Dunlop has easily won the more rural parts of the riding.
Federally, the Conservatives won nearly every poll in 2011, but prior
elections again showed the Penetanguishene Peninsula area vs. the
rest of the riding cleavage. In the 2004 election, which was the last
time the Liberal's won the seat, they had won every poll in
Penetanguishene and Midland, and won most of the polls in Orillia.
They even won many of the rural polls in the riding, though most
still voted for the Conservatives.
Outlook
Leaders almost always win the by-elections they run in if they've found themselves outside the legislature, wanting to get in. One notable exception is the 2009 by-election in Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock which saw PC leader John Tory lose in a close race in a safe conservative seat, which ended his leadership of the provincial Tories. In the past, the Liberals and Tories usually opt to not run against the leader of the other party in these by-elections, but this has not been the case recently.
Opposing Patrick Brown is Liberal candidate and retired teacher and
Orillia resident Fred Larsen, who also ran for the Liberals in last
year's election as well as in 2011. The NDP is running Elizabeth Van
Houtte, a professor at Laurentian Universiy, while the Greens are
running coordinator Valerie Powell, who was the federal Green
candidate in the 2008 and 2011 elections.
Latest polls have shown the governing Liberals are in third place in
Ontario, while the Tories and NDP are duking it out for first place.
Considering Simcoe North is generally considered a safe Tory seat,
where the NDP is weak, there is little doubt that Brown will easily
win the riding, allowing him to enter Queen's Park. The real race
will be for second place, between the Liberals and the NDP. The NDP
did manage to finish 2nd in the federal election, so it is
possible, though they have not finished ahead of the Liberals
provincially since 1990 here. However, this riding heavily trended
Liberal in 2014 (with a swing of 10%, 9 points ahead of their
provincial swing), so the Liberals may just hold on to second place.
In the very least, it might give us some indication how the riding
might vote in next month's federal election. We'll see for sure when
polls close at 9pm.
Calgary-Foothills, Alberta
When the NDP won an historic majority government in Alberta last May,
its biggest casualty was then-Premier Jim Prentice. A social
democratic party forming government in what is considered to be
Canada's conservative heartland was a clear sign that voters were not
only sick and tired of 44 years of Progressive Conservative
government, they were tired of the perceived arrogance of Premier
Prentice. Voters in his riding of Calgary-Foothills disagreed though,
and re-elected Prentice, just six months after he first entered the
legislature in a by-election. On election day though, Prentice saw
the writing on the wall, and resigned his seat in the legislature
immediately, despite just getting re-elected, prompting another
by-election in Calgary-Foothills. This by-election will mark the
first electoral test for the new NDP government, which may be past
its honeymoon at this point.
I last profiled Calgary-Elbow in a blog post last year,
so I will just take a look recent events in the riding.
The October 2014 by-election was at the height of Prentice's
popularity, and he enjoyed and easy 18-point win over his Wildrose
opponent, Kathy Macdonald. Prentice won with 58% of the vote,
enjoying a 4% two-party swing from the 2012 election. Despite this,
the Wildrose Party made some inroads into the new neighbourhoods in
the north part of the riding, where they failed to win any polling
divisions in 2012.
Recent political geography
While the NDP did not win the riding in last May's election, they did
enjoy a 29% swing in their vote from the previous by-election.
Prentice hung on with 40% of the vote, defeating the NDP's Anne
Wilson by 8 points. The wealthier and older neighbourhoods in the
southern part of riding voted for Prentice, while the brand new
subdivisions in the north of the riding voted for Wilson. By far the
best neighbourhood for Prentice was the wealthy Hamptons
neighbourhood, the only area where he won a majority of the vote
(52%). He also won the older neighbourhood of Edgemont (43%), and the
newer neighbourhoods of Kincora (37%) and Sherwood (36%), but with
bare pluralities. The NDP's best neighbourhood was the brand new Sage
Hill and Nolan Hill areas, where they won 39% of the vote. They also
won the older, but less wealthy neighbourhood of Hidden Valley with
39% of the vote. Both of these areas were also the strongest Wildrose
neighbourhoods (winning 23% and 22% respectively), and the weakest
Tory ones.
 |
| Calgary-Foothill 2015 general election results by neighbourhood |
Updated list of MLAs (since 1959)
Calgary Bowness (1959-1971)
* C.E. Johnston, Social Credit (1959-1967)
* L.F. Werry, Prog. Cons. (1967-1971)
Calgary-Foothills (1971-present)
* L.F. Werry, Prog. Cons. (1971-1973) continued
* S.A. McCrae, Prog. Cons. (1973-1982)
* Ms. J.S. Koper, Prog. Cons. (1982-1988)
* Mrs. P. Nelson, Prog. Cons. (1989-2004)
* L.W. Webber, Prog. Cons. (2004-2014)
* P.E.J. Prentice, Prog. Cons. (2014-2015)
Outlook
When the NDP formed government last Spring, Premier Rachel Notley did
not have many MLAs with experience from which to choose her cabinet.
Including herself, she only named 12 people to the cabinet, and for
her, this by-election could be an excellent opportunity to inject
some experience into her caucus. The NDP nominated Bob Hawkesworth to
be their candidate. Hawkesworth is a former Calgary city councillor,
and was an MLA for Calgary-Mountain View from 1986 to 1993. If
elected, he would easily be one of the most experienced politicians
in the NDP caucus, and thus instant cabinet material.
The candidate with the best chance of beating Hawkesworth is Prasad
Panda, an engineer who is running for the right wing Wildrose Party.
The PCs will hope to stay relevant in the riding with their
candidate, businessman Blair Houston. Despite the fact that the
Tories won this seat in the general election, they are still in
rebuilding mode as a party. They are not only the third party in the
Alberta legislature, they are in third place in the most recent
province-wide poll, conducted a few months ago. While the Tories are
a better fit in this well-off riding, it stands to reason that its
right of centre vote will coalesce behind Prasad, to defeat
Hawkesworth. It helps that the combined right wing vote was 58% in
the general election. The Liberals and Alberta Party are also running
candidates, while the Greens are running their leader, Janet Keeping.
A Mainstreet poll from mid-August showed Prasad at 29%, Hawkesworth
at 26% and Houston at 20%. Since then, it is possible that the PC
vote could have shrunk even lower, which could benefit Prasad the
most. The poll does confirm that this race will be between the
Wildrose and NDP.
While a loss for the NDP would be a blow for the government, it
shouldn't be seen as too much of a problem, considering the riding's
demographics. It is firmly a wealthy, right of centre riding after
all. A loss for the PCs would be more painful, as it might be the
beginning of the end for the party, as conservative Albertans might
look more towards Wildrose as the conservative alternative to the
NDP. A loss for the Wildrose Party wouldn't be the end of the world
for them, but it is their seat to lose at this point. With a healthy
lead in the polls, they should be able to take it.
Polls close at 8pm (10pm Eastern).
