Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Mount Pearl North by-election preview

Voters in the riding of Mount Pearl North head to the polls today to elect a new member of the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly. The riding has only been vacant since October 11, when its MHA, Steve Kent resigned to become the Chief Administrative Officer of the City of Mount Pearl. Kent was a member of the Progressive Conservative Party, and had been Deputy Prime Minister of the province under the Premiership of Kathy Dunderdale from 2014 to 2015. He was also mayor of Mount Pearl from 2003 to 2007, prior to being elected to the House. Mount Pearl North will be the first by-election held in the province since the Liberals swept into power in 2015, when they won a landslide majority government, capturing 31 of province's 40 seats. Mount Pearl North was one of only seven seats the Tories had won in the election.


Profile


Mount Pearl North is a suburban riding that covers the northern half of the City of Mount Pearl, the second largest city in the province, and the third largest municipality (after St. John's and the Town of Conception Bay South), located west of St. John's. The riding also covers two small subdivisions in St. John's itself: Brookfield Plains and Edison, which are made up of newly-built homes. The riding is shaped like an upside-down “U”, surrounding the central part of Mount Pearl. It covers the older part of the city in the east (mostly built before 1980), and newer subdivisions in the west and north which were mainly built in the 1980s, and since the 1990s respectively. The riding is more wealthy than the rest of of the province, with the average income being in the mid-$30,000 range (compared to $27,000 for the province) and is overwhelmingly White, with most residents being of English or Irish descent. 


MHAs since 1956

The riding is generally a safe Tory seat; it has elected Progressive Conservatives continuously since 1971 except for a by-election in 1988 which elected Liberal Eric Gullage and the subsequent provincial election in 1989 when he was re-elected (though, at the time the riding, then known as “Waterford-Kenmount” also covered what is now the riding of St. John's West). Gullage lost the seat in 1993 to Harvey Hodder, making the riding only one of 16 ridings to elect a Tory MHA that election. Hodder was re-elected in the new riding of Waterford Valley in 1996, a riding with similar borders to today's Mount Pearl North. The riding was one of only nine Tory seats won in 1996, with Hodder winning the seat by a nine-point margin. Hodder continued to represent the seat until Kent's election in 2007, winning increased majorities in 1999 (13 points) and 2003 (53 points!). Kent's first election win was a huge win, thanks to the coattails of the very popular Premier Danny Williams, winning the seat by a whopping 76 point margin over his Liberal opponent. He was re-elected in 2011 by a 54 point margin over the NDP candidate, and faced stiffer competition in 2015 against Mount Pearl mayor (Kent's successor) Randy Simms, whom he beat by nine points.

In the 2015 election, Kent won most of the polls on election day, but Simms won a scattering of polls across the riding. Kent's best neighbourhood was the new Brookfield Plains subdivision, where he won 59% of the election day vote. Simms only won one neighbourhood, that of Masonic Park which covers a nursing home which has since been shut down. 

Results by neighbourhood from the 2015 federal and provincial elections

In the federal election, the Tories were a non-factor, as the race was between incumbent NDP Member of Parliament Ryan Cleary and his Liberal opponent, Seamus O'Regan in the greater riding of St. John's South—Mount Pearl. O'Regan defeated Cleary, and easily won the election day polls corresponding to Mount Pearl North 60% to 35%. O'Regan won all but two polls in the area, with his best neighbourhood being Masonic Park (67%) and his worst neighbouhood being the Old part of the city, where he still won 55% of the vote (to Cleary's 41%).


Outlook

The front-runner in this race has to be the Tory candidate, Jim Lester, a farmer who owns and operates “Lester's Farm”, which is located on the southeastern border of the riding. He was the Tory candidate in the neighbouring Mount Pearl Southlands seat in the 2015 election, which he lost narrowly. The Liberal candidate in the by-election is St. John's businessman Jim Burton, who had previously sought the federal Liberal nomination in St. John's South—Mount Pearl, but withdrew in favour of O'Regan. The NDP candidate is Nicole Kieley, who is the executive director for the Newfoundland and Labrador Sexual Assault Crisis and Prevention Centre. There is a fourth candidate, businessman Hudson Stratton who is running as an independent.

Since winning the 2015 election, the popularity of the governing Liberals took a huge hit in 2016 after the government introduced a number of austerity measures, including the closing of most of the province's libraries. However, Liberal Party support has rebounded, but it is not back to where it was at the time of the last election. Both the Tories and the NDP have benefited from the Liberal's unpopularity, but Tory support is now back to where it was at the election, and the NDP, which currently has no leader is not fairing that much better. Needless to say though, I do not expect the Tories to lose this ordinarily safe-Tory seat.

Polls close at 8:00pm local time, which is 6:30 Eastern Time.





28 comments:

  1. Interesting and valuable information.
    Please Check this Post about Indian Election 2019 and Add Your Comments/Opinions. Thanks in Advance...
    Who will be the next PM of India in 2019:

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hello blogger I must say you are are doing quite well right here, and conclude that you are going to be super famous in coming days, So best of luck!
    I just found a related site as according to you in google you can check it out here.
    Canada Day Jokes

    ReplyDelete
  3. Are you tired of seeking loans and Mortgages,have you been turned down constantly By your banks and other financial institutions,We offer any form of loan to individuals and corporate bodies at low interest rate.If you are interested in taking a loan,feel free to contact us today,we promise to offer you the best services ever.Just give us a try,because a trial will convince you.What are your Financial needs?Do you need a business loan?Do you need a personal loan?Do you want to buy a car?Do you want to refinance?Do you need a mortgage loan?Do you need a huge capital to start off your business proposal or expansion? Have you lost hope and you think there is no way out, and your financial burdens still persists? Contact us (gaincreditloan1@gmail.com)

    Your Name:...............
    Your Country:...............
    Your Occupation:...............
    Loan Amount Needed:...............
    Loan Duration...............
    Monthly Income:...............
    Your Telephone Number:.....................
    Business Plan/Use Of Your Loan:...............
    Contact Us At : gaincreditloan1@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  4. https://www.ethereumpro.net/exchange-ethereum-to-paypal.php
    The Ethereum has denominated currency ether, are convertible in the form of real currency like the euro or any other local currency. Exchange of Ethereum to paypal euro account there is a need for an exchanger. Many websites are testing this service, but Ethereumpro.net is the easiest way to convert ether into euros and get payments from the PayPal account. Paypal is an online financial service that works in the transfer of money from one place to another. This is an international service that secures transactions and money as well.

    ReplyDelete
  5. NETSOL Technologies offers advanced Software technology & surveillance tools Solutions for
    Asset Finance And Leasing worldwide.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Crystal Water poolsJuly 2, 2019 at 7:00 AM

    Crystal Water Pools specialized in building swimming pools.Shotcrete structure, pebble finish & salt system. Leading swimming pool contractors in Georgia

    ReplyDelete
  7. Crystal Water Pools specialized in building swimming pools.
    Shotcrete structure, pebble finish & salt system. Leading swimming pool contractors in Georgia

    ReplyDelete
  8. By producing these types of looks, normal individuals obtain the chance to reveal their style and also character, while emphasizing that style isn't only for the rich but also for all types of people as well as classes. The only issue is that most of the contemporary streetwear brands names are pricy and also unreachable from the major populace. It in some way defeats the function of the style movement.

    ReplyDelete
  9. However, US Open Live Stream you will do it in the comfort of your abode for your safety.The action will still be exhilarating,
    just like the last year 2019. Get some popcorn, wear your apparel, and be prepared to celebrate big wins.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Look, I found an awesome Software Development company named THESOFTKING, they are offering 500+ PHP Buy laravel script and HTML templates from USD 29$ Only and visit to this site.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Realistic Sex Doll have definitely come a long way from just being plain old rigid to being super flexible.

    ReplyDelete
  12. As Zty Health Tourism Company, we provide patient organizations in the aesthetic surgery field, fue hair transplant turkey according to international standards.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Are you looking for a Buy Weed Online service or a weed dispensary that markets very good quality marijuana? Don't stress anymore because you've come to the right place.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Girl Scout Cookies, like so many other awesome weed strains hails from the West Coast of the US girl scout cookies strain where she created waves of raving excitement among cannabis lovers shortly after she came to the scene. So big was the excitement about this super-potent strain that it didn’t take long until these waves and her stellar reputation reached Europe and the rest of the world. Today she is the best selling strain on the West Coast and the most popular strain in North America.

    ReplyDelete
  15. psychedelic education Monthly MAPS donors sustain our work and support year-round psychedelic research, drug policy reform, public education, harm reduction,
    peer support, and general operations.

    ReplyDelete
  16. The Buy horse and camel supplies .Veterinary Medicine supplies Dubai and the UAE and the rest of Asian and African Countries with quality Horse medicines, Camel medicines, and general veterinary medicines to promote performance and overall health of your livestock, racing animals, and domestic pets.

    ReplyDelete
  17. The buy redotex online medical online is the online solution for our customers from quality medical services. buy branded medical equipment such as medical supplies.

    ReplyDelete
  18. During the lockdown period, something that students have enough time to dedicate to is visiting essay writing services. write my essays for money.It is well known how essays are an important part of every students’ college time.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Redotex supplements contain norpseudoephedrine, which is an amphetaminelike drug; atropine sulfate, which stimulates the circulatory and respiratory systems; where to buy redotex.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Tentunya kalian pasti bertanya tanya mengapa agen judi bola online Sbobet menjadi bandar bola paling terbaik bahkan terpercaya ditahun 2021 ini. situs judi bola online .

    ReplyDelete
  21. Es ist Weihnachtszeit und wir haben für euch die besten Weihnachtsgeschenke gesammelt! Entdeckt unsere große Auswahl an Geschenkideen für Weihnachten für eure Liebsten. Egal für welches Budget - bei uns findest du witzige, romantische und persönliche Weihnachtsgeschenke für die ganze Familie.

    ReplyDelete

  22. Welcome...To DUMP99.IN Dumps With Pin Shop Online, dump and pin .Yep We know you have alots right now - you can be free from your debt in no time.- Your student loans will be gone, your car loan, your house mortgage loan.

    ReplyDelete
  23. MXTD series square drive hydraulic torque wrench is made of aviation aluminum alloy material. Square Drive Hydraulic Wrench . Its quality and durability are well guaranteed. The one-piece design makes it more widely used and more adaptable.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Gymnastics is a great sport for all of us. Gymnastics is a great way for someone to stay active and flexible. gymnastics hall of fame .Remember, activities involving motion can make you stronger and healthy. But if you have some physical limitations you need more prudent to make the program of training.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Site adulto com os melhores conteúdos de porno doido confira que perfeito que é.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Platform perjudian uang asli terbaik dan paling terpercaya di Indonesia saat ini, tidak lain adalah Bandungtoto. bandungtoto .Situs judi online terpercaya satu ini sudah sangat di kenal oleh para pecinta judi togel online.

    ReplyDelete