Projection Map #1 |
We are now two weeks
into the New Brunswick provincial election, since the writs dropped
August 21, which marked the beginning of the campaign. This means
that there are just two and a half weeks to go before New
Brunswickers head to the polls on September 22. And, only this week
have there been any polls released. Now that there has been some
polls, I can finally do my first seat projection of the campaign.
Corporate
Research Associates (CRA),
Atlantic Canada's main pollster,
released a poll
on September 2nd
showing the Opposition Liberal Party firmly in the lead at
48%. The governing Progressive Conservatives were in second,
with 28%, and the NDP was at 17%. Forum Research also
released a poll,
a few days earlier, showing similar numbers; The Liberals were at
46%, the Tories at 31% and the NDP at 15%. Both of these polls were
conducted before Labour Day, so there is the caveat of notoriously
unreliable Summer polling, but the numbers are on par with CRA polls
from the Spring.
Neither pollster
provided for any regional or even linguistic breakdowns in their
numbers, which will make individual seat projections a lot more of a
crapshoot than in other provinces. For my first projection, I took an
average of the two polls (weighted based on sample size), and plugged
it into my projection model, which is based on the transposed 2010
election results. (See this post for the calculated transposed results of the 2010 election). I
also made some minor tweaks to reflect which candidates will be on
the ballot (the nomination period having ended), and I also made
adjustments in three ridings based on circumstance:
* Tracadie-Sheila: I
reduced the support for the NDP in this riding, because the party saw
a larger-than-usual vote share in 2010 because their leader at the
time ran in this riding. (I based my math on what the NDP should have
received in this riding in 2010, if it saw the same swing as the rest
of the province.)
* Fredericton
West-Hanwell: Conversely, I raised the support for the NDP in this
riding, because their leader is running in it. (I based my math on
the increase that NDP leader Dominic Cardy saw when he ran in a
by-election two years ago in Rothesay, compared to province-wide
polling at the time.)
* Carleton-Victoria:
In this riding, the Liberals suspended their candidate
(Andrew Harvey) based on fraud charges. Because the nomination period
is over, he will remain on the ballot. I have yet to come up with a
very good math-based solution to base my projection in this riding,
but for now, I weakened Harvey's candidacy based on a similar
scenario that occurred in the federal election, where a Liberal
candidate appeared on the ballot after losing the party's support due
to scandal. Assuming most of his vote will go to the NDP, I
increased the NDP's share in this riding accordingly, to compensate.
I may want to tweak the numbers in this district in the future, as my
model still shows the Liberals in second place.
As always, I will be
making further adjustments to my model to reflect candidate
strengths, and other factors in the coming weeks. But for now, my
model shows a large Liberal majority government. According to my
projection, the Liberals would win 38 of the 49 seats in the New
Brunswick legislature. The Tories would win 10 seats (almost all of
them in the socially conservative “Baptist belt” of southwestern
New Brunswick), and the NDP would win one seat (Fredericton
West-Hanwell, where Cardy is running). This would be a 25 seat
increase for the Liberals, and 32 seat decrease for the Tories from
the 2010 election. For the NDP, it would be their first seat won
since 2003. For the Liberals, it would be their largest electoral
victory since 1995, and it would be the worst defeat for the Tories
since then. In that election, the Liberals won 48 of 55 seats, and
won 52% of the vote to 31% for the PCs, a similar result to current
polling.
Projected results by
riding (ridings coloured by how they went in 2010, using transposed
results):
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