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We are now into week
3 of the Ontario provincial election campaign, and it's now time for
my second projection. Since my last projection two weeks ago, we have
seen only a little movement in the polls, as voters are still waiting
to make up their minds as to who to vote for on June 12. Two weeks
ago, polls were split as to whether the Liberals or the Tories were
leading in the polls, and that has not changed. In the last week,
both EKOS and Forum Research have shown the Liberals ahead (37-30 and
38-35 respectively), while Ipsos shows the Tories with the lead
(39-30). All three pollsters have the NDP in the low 20s. Averaged
out, we get a small Liberal lead, with numbers that are very similar
to the 2011 election. It is therefore no surprise that my projection
shows a Liberal minority (or technically a “plurality”), just
like in the last election:
For this projection, I factored in polling data from all three of the aforementioned polls: EKOS (released May 16), Ipsos (released May 14) and Forum Research (released May 13).
Changes
My last projection
two weeks ago, showed the Tories with a narrow lead, with a plurality
of the seats in the 107 Ontario legislature. This week's projection
flips that result, now showing the Liberals on top with a plurality.
This has come due to a shift in the polls across the province, except
in the usually swing-heavy 905 region, which has remained stagnant.
In Eastern Ontario, there has been a shift from the Tories to the
Liberals, which has been enough to shift Ottawa—Orleans, Ottawa
South, Ottawa West—Nepean and Glengarry—Prescott—Russell back
into the Liberal column in my projection model. Polls have also seen
a shift from the Tories to the Liberals in Southwestern Ontario,
putting Brant, Kitchener Centre and Perth—Wellington into the
Liberal column. In Central Ontario, the Liberals are polling much
stronger than expected, and my projection now shows
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock in the Liberal column as well. In
Toronto, polls are showing a shift from the NDP to the Liberals,
giving Davenport and Parkdale—High Park to the Grits in my model.
However, in Northern Ontario my projection now shows the NDP back on
top in Kenora—Rainy River (which was PC in my last projection) and
also in Sudbury (from the Liberals), taking into account aconstituency-level poll conducted there by OraclePoll. To sum, the Liberals have gained a net of 9 seats in the last 2
weeks, the Tories have lost 9 seats while the NDP has had a net of no
change.
In addition to
factoring in the Subdury riding poll, I have also factored in two
other riding polls done by OraclePoll: one done in Sault Ste. Marie
(done in conjunction with the Sudbury one) and one done in Don ValleyWest,
the riding of Premier Kathleen Wynne.
Odd projection
results
Once again, I have yet to take into account local candidacy strengths
in my projection, which has resulted in some more bizarre riding
projections in my model. I do plan on factoring in a candidacy
strength factor into my next projection following this coming
Thursday, which marks the final day for candidacy declarations.
With the Liberals
polling stronger than usual in the 705 area code, my projection still
shows the Grits on top in Barrie as
well as in Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock.
The latter is usually a safe Tory seat, but the race was closer than
usual in 2011, with the Liberals having an incumbency advantage. This
was
because they had won the seat in a by-election in 2009 caused by
then-PC leader John Tory wishing to enter the legislature after
failing to win a seat in the Assembly in the 2007 election. Voters in
the usually safe conservative seat said “no” to Tory, and elected
Liberal Rick Johnson instead. Johnson is actually running again, but
my instinct suggests his support from 2011 is likely to have waned.
Meanwhile, in Barrie- the
riding is a bit of a Tory-leaning bellwether, so it may not be that
inconceivable at this point that the Liberals would have a narrow
lead. However, it still seems hard to believe.
Recent
polls have shown a resurgence for the Liberals in Southwestern
Ontario, which has led my projection to show the Liberals ahead in
Perth—Wellington. Until
2011, the riding had been held by Liberal John Wilkinson, who had
enough personal popularity to win the seat in 2003 to 2007 despite
the riding being your typical rural conservative seat. However his
popularity wasn't enough to keep the seat in 2011, when Tory Randy
Pettapiece won the seat by just 210 votes. Without Wilkinson on the
ballot this year, the Liberals are unlikely to win the seat back.
In
Toronto, the populist campaign that the NDP has been running has
alienated some progressive voters in the city, resulting in a decline
for the NDP in regional polls in
the city. This has resulted in my projection showing the Liberals now
ahead in Parkdale—High Park and
Davenport, as well as
Trinity—Spadina, which I think is a
more likely result
than the other two.
Parkdale—High Park is a bit of surprise, as I think its MPP, Cheri
DiNovo is quite popular. Davenport is less of a surprise, but I still
think the NDP will keep it, as the riding seems to be trending to the
party. Another surprise in Toronto continues to be
Scarborough—Guildwood.
With Tory polling numbers higher than usual in the 416,
Scarborough—Guildwood-
which saw a close-ish by-election last summer- continues to be in the
PC column in my projection. However, I think with the NDP's
by-election candidate city councillor Adam Giambrone off the ballot,
much of his support will go to the Liberals, giving them this seat.
Here
are my projected numbers for each seat. Ridings are coloured by how
they voted in 2011:
Methodology
The basis of my
model extrapolates the results of the 2011 election using regional
polling averages from recent polls. If a party is polling at double
the level they won in 2011, then that party would see its support
double in each riding in the region my model. I have also taken into
account recent by-elections, but projecting the results of the
by-elections backward to the last election based on poll numbers from
around the time of each by-election. That is, if a party did 5 points
better than polls indicated they would've won in a by-election, then
I have made their 2011 result 5 points more than they actually
received in 2011. (I've only done this for the NDP, the PCs and the
Liberals, except for Thornhill where I only did it for the PCs and
Liberals).
In the coming
weeks, I will be doing further tweaks to my model based on a number
of factors, such as candidate strengths. However, candidates are
still being nominated, so they have been ignored for the time being.
You can say that this model reflects polling data as if all
candidates were the same as in 2011 (or recent by-elections).
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