Ontario election 2011 prediction (september 26)

Outline by S. Smith

This past weekend, Forum Research published the largest poll in Canadian history for the provincial election in Ontario. 40,000 people were polled, asking which party they were supporting. This poll was so large, individual riding results were also published within a certain degree of accuracy.

For this projection, I will only be looking at this particular poll, due to the fact that there is no way you can get more accurate than 40,000 respondents- the margin of error was just 0.5%. The results of the poll are quite interesting; it showed an exact tie between the Tories and the Liberals at 35%, with the NDP trailing not too far behind at 23%. The Greens meanwhile are at a respectable 6% province wide.

Looking at individual ridings, according to Forum Research these numbers translate to 47 seats each for the Liberals and Tories and just 13 for NDP. This is where the errors comes in. With a tie vote, the Liberals should have the edge in seats, but they don't. This can be explained by large rural swings against them, which I factored into my projection. But one statistic that doesn't sit right is the 13 seats for the NDP. That would mean a net increase of just three seats on a swing of 6%. This seams ridiculous considering the party was able to win 17 seats on just 18% of the vote in the 2008 federal election. But who knows, perhaps the party is doing well, but not in any concentrations.

The report published in the Toronto Star indicated that there were 28 seats within 5% of the vote, but didn't say who was leading or in second place in them. They were: Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough--Westdale, Beaches--East York, Bramalea—Gore—Malton, Brampton—Springdale, Halton, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener—Conestoga, Kitchener—Waterloo, London North Centre, London West, Mississauga East, Mississauga—Erindale, Mississauga South, Niagara Falls, Oak Ridges—Markham, Ottawa South, Pickering--Scarborough East, Richmond Hill, St. Catharines, Thornhill, Thunder Bay—Atikokan, Thunder Bay--Superior North, Timmins--James Bay, Trinity—Spadina, Welland, Windsor—Tecumseh, Windsor West and York Centre.

Some of those seats make sense, but others are quite odd, like McGuinty in danger of losing his seat in Ottawa South, or the NDP at risk of losing Timmins—James Bay. Additionally, there are some notable absences from this list, like my own riding of Ottawa Centre. Some of the individual riding sample sizes are quite low however. Timmins—James Bay had just 54 respondents in the poll.

Sunday morning I looked for some individual riding numbers, and found some for the Greater Toronto Area. Looking at the map found that most ridings seemed to be accurate, but there are a few oddities. Specifically, how poor the NDP seems to be doing in Toronto, despite polls from earlier last week showing the party was doing better than they were at federally. Forum Research has the party losing Parkdale—High Park surprisingly, and in danger of losing the two strongholds of Trinity—Spadina and Beaches—East York. Also, the party is way behind in York South—Weston, despite some indications of a strong NDP campaign there. Also, the Tories being ahead in two Brampton ridings is a bit of a surprise, considering I would have expected other ridings to go first. I suppose many Indo-Canadians are warming up to the provincial Tories at the expense of the Liberals.

I also found some numbers from Bruce, Grey and Simcoe Counties. The big surprise here is the collapse of the Liberal vote in Huron—Bruce which is part of the reason why I suspect the Liberals are way behind in their rural seats.

And so, I am left to make a new projection from all of this. I didn't just copy and paste the poll numbers into the ridings, but I did make some adjustments where I could find the numbers. Some wonky ridings I nearly ignored completely, but then again, it's possible the polls are correct about those seats. I will be taking a close look at these seats in the next week and a half before election day.

Seat by seat projection

Riding	Lib	PC	NDP	Grn	Oth	Projected winner
Ajax—Pickering	43	37	13	6	1	Joe Dickson
Algoma—Manitoulin	37	15	41	5	1	Michael Mantha
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	36	41	16	6	1	Donna Skelly
Barrie	26	47	19	7	1	Rod Jackson
Beaches—East York	32	18	39	10	1	Michael Prue
Bramalea—Gore—Malton	36	32	27	4	1	Kuldip Kular
Brampton West	42	38	16	4	0	Vic Dhillon
Brampton—Springdale	38	39	17	5	1	Pam Hundal
Brant	40	34	20	4	2	Dave Levac
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	29	42	13	11	5	Bill Walker
Burlington	31	46	17	5	1	Jane McKenna
Cambridge	25	45	24	5	1	Rob Leone
Carleton—Mississippi Mills	35	47	12	5	1	Jack MacLaren
Chatham-Kent—Essex	27	45	23	5	-	Rick Nicholls
Davenport	35	11	47	5	2	Jonah Schein
Don Valley East	43	30	22	4	1	Michael Coteau
Don Valley West	47	38	8	6	1	Kathleen Wynne
Dufferin—Caledon	24	49	10	17	0	Sylvia Jones
Durham	27	47	19	6	1	John O'Toole
Eglinton—Lawrence	50	36	9	4	1	Mike Colle
Elgin—Middlesex—London	25	49	21	4	1	Jeff Yurek
Essex	24	40	32	4	-	Dave Brister
Etobicoke Centre	47	35	12	4	2	Donna Cansfield
Etobicoke North	48	25	21	4	2	Shafiq Qaadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore	41	34	17	6	2	Laurel Broten
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	37	44	13	5	1	Marlissa Gosselin
Guelph	45	28	15	11	1	Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk	20	60	15	4	1	Toby Barrett
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	34	47	13	6	0	Laurie Scott
Halton	34	46	14	4	1	Ted Chudleigh
Hamilton Centre	23	18	50	7	2	Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	26	28	40	4	2	Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain	30	27	37	4	2	Monique Taylor
Huron—Bruce	32	38	25	4	1	Lisa Thompson
Kenora—Rainy River	29	31	36	4	0	Sarah Campbell
Kingston and the Islands	44	29	20	5	2	John Gerretsen
Kitchener Centre	40	35	19	5	1	John Milloy
Kitchener—Conestoga	36	41	18	5	-	Michael Harris
Kitchener—Waterloo	37	43	14	5	1	Elizabeth Witmer
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex	35	40	19	4	2	Monte McNaughton
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	33	43	18	6	-	Randy Hiller
Leeds—Grenville	25	55	14	6	0	Steve Clark
London North Centre	39	32	21	7	1	Deb Matthews
London West	44	38	17	4	1	Chris Bentley
London—Fanshawe	35	29	30	4	2	Khalil Ramal
Markham—Unionville	48	29	18	4	1	Michael Chan
Mississauga East—Cooksville	42	38	15	4	1	Dipika Damerla
Mississauga South	44	40	11	4	1	Charles Sousa
Mississauga—Brampton South	43	36	16	4	1	Armit Mangat
Mississauga—Erindale	42	38	15	4	1	Harinder Takhar
Mississauga—Streetsville	44	36	13	7	-	Bob Delaney
Nepean—Carleton	30	49	13	7	1	Lisa MacLeod
Newmarket—Aurora	34	46	14	6	-	Frank Klees
Niagara Falls	42	36	16	5	2	Kim Craitor
Niagara West—Glanbrook	21	54	18	5	2	Tim Hudak
Nickel Belt	25	20	51	4	-	France Gelinas
Nipissing	34	46	16	4	-	Victor Fedeli
Northumberland—Quinte West	35	40	18	6	1	Rob Milligan
Oak Ridges—Markham	39	42	14	4	1	Farid Wassef
Oakville	43	39	11	5	2	Kevin Flynn
Oshawa	18	42	35	4	1	Jerry Ouellette
Ottawa Centre	32	20	39	8	1	Anil Naidoo
Ottawa South	42	35	16	6	1	Dalton McGuinty
Ottawa West—Nepean	37	41	16	5	1	Randall Denley
Ottawa—Orleans	43	41	11	4	1	Phil McNeely
Ottawa—Vanier	41	27	24	7	1	Madeleine Meilleur
Oxford	23	52	18	5	2	Ernie Hardeman
Parkdale—High Park	32	14	44	7	3	Cheri DiNovo
Parry Sound—Muskoka	19	48	22	10	1	Norm Miller
Perth—Wellington	37	42	13	6	2	Randy Pettapiece
Peterborough	42	29	23	5	1	Jeff Leal
Pickering—Scarborough East	42	36	16	5	1	Tracey MacCharles
Prince Edward—Hastings	34	39	21	4	2	Todd Smith
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	18	65	13	4	0	John Yakabuski
Richmond Hill	42	37	14	6	1	Reza Moridi
St. Catharines	40	35	18	5	2	Jim Bradley
St. Paul's	43	28	19	8	2	Eric Hoskins
Sarnia—Lambton	23	45	26	4	2	Bob Bailey
Sault Ste. Marie	51	16	27	4	2	David Orazietti
Scarborough Centre	43	28	24	4	1	Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest	39	24	31	5	1	Lorenzo Berardinetti
Scarborough—Agincourt	50	27	17	4	2	Soo Wong
Scarborough—Guildwood	41	30	23	4	2	Margarett Best
Scarborough—Rouge River	45	21	28	3	3	Bas Balkissoon
Simcoe North	24	52	17	7	-	Garfield Dunlop
Simcoe—Grey	23	54	13	10	-	Jim Wilson
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	28	51	16	4	1	Jim McDonnell
Sudbury	49	14	32	4	1	Rick Bartolucci
Thornhill	41	45	9	4	1	Peter Shurman
Thunder Bay—Atikokan	32	23	41	4	0	Mary Kozorys
Thunder Bay—Superior North	42	12	42	4	0	Michael Gravelle or Steve Mantis
Timikaming—Cochrane	35	17	44	4	0	John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay	29	22	45	4	0	Gilles Bisson
Toronto Centre	44	20	26	8	2	Glen Murray
Toronto—Danforth	26	11	52	9	2	Peter Tabuns
Trinity—Spadina	33	14	45	7	1	Rasario Marchese
Vaughan	51	33	11	4	1	Greg Sorbara
Welland	24	33	38	4	1	Cindy Forster
Wellington—Halton Hills	27	55	11	7	-	Ted Arnott
Whitby—Oshawa	26	48	19	6	1	Christine Elliott
Willowdale	43	36	15	5	1	David Zimmer
Windsor West	33	20	43	4	-	Helmi Charif
Windsor—Tecumseh	41	20	34	4	1	Dwight Duncan
York Centre	41	40	13	5	1	Monte Kwinter
York South—Weston	39	14	42	4	1	Paul Ferriera
York West	51	17	27	4	1	Mario Sergio
York—Simcoe	24	52	17	6	1	Julia Munro

Seat changes since last projection

The Tories were the main beneficiary of this projection, gaining six seats in my theory that they are winning all of the rural Liberal seats. These are Huron—Bruce, Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, Northumberland—Quinte West, Perth—Wellington and Prince Edward—Hastings. Also, the absence of Ottawa West—Nepean on that close race list means that I believe it is firmly in the Tory column as well, making it the sixth Tory gain. Three of those Tory gains were from projected toss up seats. The NDP also gained on seat in this projection, in Algoma—Manitoulin (from toss up). Brampton—Springdale and Ottawa—Orleans are new toss ups, as those previously Liberal projected seats are now close races.

Conclusion

While I didn't come up with a tie in seats like Forum Research did, I did get a close result. Either the Tories or the Liberals can win this, but it will be a minority. The Tories are presently two seats behind. Even though I shifted many Liberal seats into the Tory column, I still couldn't get to the number provided in the forum research poll. And, I have no idea where they have the NDP gaining seats, but I suspect their low sample sizes in the north have meant that their numbers weren't too NDP friendly. In any event, I have the NDP winning at least 17 seats, not 13. And they will be holding the balance of power. 

Methodology/disclaimer

I have looked at each riding individually and tried to figure out what its voters might do in the upcoming election. For this, I looked at the riding history, and tried to come to a conclusion as to why certain parties did as well they did, or as poor as they did compared to other years. For certain ridings, I assumed a uniform swing, because I felt its historical voting trends follow the provincial voting trends. For other ridings, I looked at the results of the recent federal election and adjusted the results to reflect the most recent poll. And for other ridings, I could only make estimates, again using past election data. It all depended on the character of the riding.

Of course, there is bound to be some oversights on my part. If you think I have a riding wrong, please let me know. I want to get this as right as possible. The key to making correct projections is not all about the math. Rather, it's about the local conditions. That's why I will be looking at qualitative data just as much as I will be looking at quantitative.