Referendum to abolish HST passes in BC

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith.

The results are finally in from the HST referendum in British Columbia. And the result is a "yes" victory for abolishing the unpopular Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) brought in by the Gordon Campbell government in 2009.

Last year, Elections BC approved a petition started by former Premier Bill Vander Zalm to have a referendum on the HST. The HST was seen by many economists as a good idea that will save the government money. Opponents saw it as a sneaky tax grab that was not promised by the Campbell government. At the depths of his popularity, Campbell resigned over the issue and was replaced by Christy Clark in the Premier's chair.

The referendum was conducted using mail-in ballots this summer, from June 13 to August 5. It took Elections BC 21 days to compile the results. The question on the ballot read:

"Are you in favour of extinguishing the HST (Harmonized Sales Tax) and reinstating the PST (Provincial Sales Tax) in conjuction with the GST (Goods and Services Tax)?"

The BC Liberals were obviously against abolishing the HST, while the opposition NDP was in favour. However, opposition came from anti-tax conservatives as well, including Vander Zalm, who was the leader of the Social Credit Party, a now defunct conservative party in the province.

In a wave of populist disconent, BC voters voted to abolish the HST:

	Total votes	%
Yes	881,198	54.73
No	728,927	45.27

Not a single riding that went NDP in the 2009 provincial election voted against abolishing the HST. In addition, nearly half of 2009 Liberal ridings voted to abolish it.

2009 winner	Yes ridings	No ridings
BC Liberals	20	23
NDP	35	0
Independent	0	1

The results were for the most part split upon class lines, with wealthier areas such as North Vancouver voting heavily against extinguishing the HST while more working class areas like in North Surrey and East Vancouver voting in favour of the measure.

Sign in favour of extinguishing the HST

More populist conservative areas that usually vote heavily Liberal in provincial elections also voted Yes, like in the Peace River region and in Richmond.

And now, the BC government has the difficult task of undoing what was alread done. They have set the time table to abolish it by 2013, just before the next election is scheduled. However, there is some speculation that Premier Clark might drop the writs as early as this Fall, which could be political suicide considering the huge defeat that this is for her governing Liberal party. However, critics suggest her party now has no legitimacy. And now, the federal Conservatives want the money back that they gave to BC to help them implement the HST. The provincial NDP has come out against this. It will be interesting to see how politics in BC will go over the next few months.


On a completely unrelated note, I just wanted to pay my respects to Jack Layton who passed away on Monday. I had the good fortune of meeting him three times. It was quite a sad week for me, as the NDP has been the party I personally support.  May you rest in peace, Jack.

Ontario election 2011 prediction (August 16)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith

It's time for another Ontario projection, because there has been yet another provincial poll to be released for the upcoming provincial election. Nanos Research has released their first provincial poll since one taken in May, shortly after the federal election. This poll, which was just taken last week confirms the Liberal surge we saw in the Ipsos-Reid poll which I analyzed in my last projection. One thing that is surprising is an apparent collapse in the NDP vote.

The Nanos numbers are as follows:

Prog. Cons.: 42% (+1 from May)
Liberals: 38% (+4)
NDP: 16% (-3)
Greens: 3% (-3)

Additionally, the NDP is 7% lower than the Ipsos-Reid poll taken just a week before. So, what's going on? Could it be the Turmel affair is affecting provincial politics? Maybe, but Nanos has had a reputation of polling the NDP lower than other pollsters, as we saw in the early stages of the federal election. They were the last polling firm to catch the "orange wave", although their final polling numbers turned out to be quite accurate.

In September, my projection will be based more on an average of multiple polls. But for now, since polls are coming in slowly, I have been doing a separate projection for each poll to come out, regardless of the polling firm. That means large swings have meant large projection changes in my model.

Here are my current seat by seat projections based on this recent Nanos poll:

Riding	Lib	PC	NDP	Grn	Winning candidate
Ajax—Pickering	46	43	7	4	Joe Dickson
Algoma—Manitoulin	38	22	35	3	Mike Brown
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	37	47	12	4	Donna Skelly
Barrie	29	55	11	5	Rod Jackson
Beaches—East York	25	23	44	8	Michael Prue
Bramalea—Gore—Malton	44	35	19	2	Kuldip Kular
Brampton West	44	44	10	2	Vic Dhillon or Ben Shenouda
Brampton—Springdale	45	42	10	3	Linda Jeffrey
Brant	45	40	13	2	Dave Levac
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	28	54	9	9	Bill Walkerl
Burlington	33	54	10	3	Jane McKenna
Cambridge	29	53	15	3	Rob Leone
Carleton—Mississippi Mills	37	55	5	3	Jack MacLaren
Chatham-Kent—Essex	31	51	15	3	Rick Nicholls
Davenport	40	12	45	3	Jonah Schein
Don Valley East	46	37	15	2	Michael Coteau
Don Valley West	48	42	6	4	Kathleen Wynne
Dufferin—Caledon	25	54	8	13	Sylvia Jones
Durham	30	55	11	4	John O'Toole
Eglinton—Lawrence	50	39	9	2	Mike Colle
Elgin—Middlesex—London	29	55	14	2	Jeff Yurek
Essex	27	46	25	2	Dave Brister
Etobicoke Centre	50	41	7	2	Donna Cansfield
Etobicoke North	51	30	17	2	Shafiq Qaadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore	44	42	10	4	Laurel Broten
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	50	42	5	3	Grant Crack
Guelph	46	33	12	9	Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk	24	65	9	2	Toby Barrett
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	36	49	11	4	Laurie Scott
Halton	37	54	7	2	Ted Chudleigh
Hamilton Centre	25	23	47	5	Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	29	34	35	2	Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain	33	32	33	2	Sophia Aggelonitis or Monique Taylor
Huron—Bruce	42	43	13	2	Lisa Thompson
Kenora—Rainy River	32	38	29	2	TBD
Kingston and the Islands	44	33	20	3	John Gerretsen
Kitchener Centre	43	37	16	3	John Milloy
Kitchener—Conestoga	38	47	12	3	Michael Harris
Kitchener—Waterloo	31	51	14	4	Elizabeth Witmer
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex	42	46	10	2	Monte McNaughton
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	35	50	11	4	Randy Hillier
Leeds—Grenville	27	61	8	4	Steve Clark
London North Centre	44	35	16	5	Deb Matthews
London West	49	39	10	2	Chris Bentley
London—Fanshawe	36	32	30	2	Khalil Ramal
Markham—Unionville	50	38	10	2	Michael Chan
Mississauga East—Cooksville	50	41	8	1	Dipika Damerla
Mississauga South	45	45	8	2	Charles Sousa or Geoff Janoscik
Mississauga—Brampton South	46	43	10	1	Armit Mangat
Mississauga—Erindale	44	43	10	2	Harinder Takhar
Mississauga—Streetsville	47	41	9	3	Bob Delaney
Nepean—Carleton	33	54	8	5	Lisa MacLeod
Newmarket—Aurora	37	53	6	4	Frank Klees
Niagara Falls	45	43	9	3	Kim Craitor
Niagara West—Glanbrook	24	63	10	3	Tim Hudak
Nickel Belt	28	24	46	2	France Gelinas
Nipissing	37	49	12	2	Victor Fedeli
Northumberland—Quinte West	42	44	11	3	Rob Milligan
Oak Ridges—Markham	41	50	7	2	Farid Wassef
Oakville	46	45	6	3	Kevin Flynn
Oshawa	20	50	28	2	Jerry Ouellette
Ottawa Centre	34	23	37	6	Anil Naidoo
Ottawa South	49	38	9	4	Dalton McGuinty
Ottawa West—Nepean	44	44	9	3	Bob Chiarelli or Randall Denley
Ottawa—Orleans	49	44	5	2	Phil McNeely
Ottawa—Vanier	47	26	22	5	Madeleine Meilleur
Oxford	27	59	11	3	Ernie Hardeman
Parkdale—High Park	28	16	50	5	Cheri DiNovo
Parry Sound—Muskoka	22	57	13	8	Norm Miller
Perth—Wellington	43	44	9	4	Randy Pettapiece
Peterborough	44	38	15	3	Jeff Leal
Pickering—Scarborough East	47	38	12	3	Tracey MacCharles
Prince Edward—Hastings	40	46	12	2	Todd Smith
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	21	70	7	2	John Yakabuski
Richmond Hill	45	43	9	3	Reza Moridi
St. Catharines	43	39	15	3	Jim Bradley
St. Paul's	46	32	16	6	Eric Hoskins
Sarnia—Lambton	26	53	21	2	Bob Bailey
Sault Ste. Marie	54	25	20	1	David Orazietti
Scarborough Centre	45	36	18	2	Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest	42	31	24	3	Lorenzo Berardinetti
Scarborough—Agincourt	53	32	14	1	Soo Wong
Scarborough—Guildwood	42	34	22	2	Margarett Best
Scarborough—Rouge River	58	27	14	1	Bas Balkissoon
Simcoe North	27	60	8	5	Garfield Dunlop
Simcoe—Grey	24	60	8	8	Jim Wilson
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	31	60	8	1	Jim McDonnell
Sudbury	52	22	24	2	Rick Bartolucci
Thornhill	36	57	5	2	Peter Shurman
Thunder Bay—Atikokan	33	30	36	1	Mary Kozorys
Thunder Bay—Superior North	44	19	35	2	Michael Gravelle
Timikaming—Cochrane	36	25	38	1	John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay	30	29	40	1	Gilles Bisson
Toronto Centre	47	23	24	6	Glen Murray
Toronto—Danforth	29	14	50	7	Peter Tabuns
Trinity—Spadina	35	17	44	5	Rosario Marchese
Vaughan	53	37	9	1	Greg Sorbara
Welland	27	39	32	2	Domenic Ursini
Wellington—Halton Hills	27	60	8	5	Ted Arnott
Whitby—Oshawa	28	56	12	4	Christine Elliott
Willowdale	46	43	8	3	David Zimmer
Windsor West	27	31	41	2	Helmi Charif
Windsor—Tecumseh	45	31	22	2	Dwight Duncan
York Centre	44	45	10	1	Michael Mostyn
York South—Weston	40	18	40	2	Paul Ferreira or Laura Albanese
York West	53	19	27	1	Mario Sergio
York—Simcoe	27	60	9	4	Julia Munro

Conclusion
Even though the Liberals are behind the Tories by 4 points, they are still virtually tied with the Tories in terms of seat totals in my projection. This means a minority government of some sort, despite the NDP losing a lot of projected seats. However, both the Tories and the Liberals could win a majority government if they win all of their toss up seats.

Party	Projected seat totals (toss ups included in table)	Change from last projection	Projected seat totals (toss ups excluded from table)
	39	+4	43
	37	-5	46
	9	-7	13
Toss ups*	22	+8	5 (ties)

*Toss ups indicate projections closer than 3%.

Saskatchewan 2011 election prediction (August edition)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith

There has finally been a poll released in Saskatchewan for their provincial election which will be held in November. My last projection was based on a poll from last November. Insightrix Research released a poll yesterday for the first time since April 2010. The poll conducted in November was by Sigma. Anyways, not much has changed since the poll in November, the right wing Saskatchewan Party still holds a massive lead over the NDP:

Saskatchewan Party: 58%
New Democratic Party: 31%
Green Party: 5%
Liberal Party: 4%

Yes, that's right. The Liberals are behind the Green Party, perhaps due to their falling to third party status in the Canadian House of Commons.These results are not much different from November, where the Saskatchewan Party is up one point, the NDP up 2 points, the Greens are even and the Liberals are down 4 points.

Just like for Ontario, I hope to do riding by riding projections for the other provinces holding elections this fall. They will be less accurate, as my local knowledge for other provinces is limited, and there is less discussion out there about other provincial races. However, I will try and do my best. Once again, comments would be appreciated.

Riding	SP	NDP	Lib	Grn	Projected winning candidate
Arm River-Watrous	65	23	7	5	Greg Brkich
Athabasca	39	53	2	6	Buckley Belanger
Batoche	65	29	3	4	Delbert Kirsch
Biggar	64	28	2	6	Randy Weekes
Cannington	82	13	4	1	Dan D'Autremont
Canora-Pelly	71	24	1	4	Ken Krawetz
Carrot River Valley	69	27	2	2	Fred Bradshaw
Cumberland	40	48	3	9	Doyle Vermette
Cut Knife-Turtleford	69	25	2	4	Larry Doke
Cypress Hills	81	12	2	5	Wayne Elhard
Estevan	73	12	10	5	Doreen Eagles
Humboldt	65	22	7	6	Donna Harpauer
Indian Head-Milestone	71	19	4	6	Don McMorris
Kelvington-Wadena	77	17	1	5	June Draude
Kindersley	71	19	4	6	Bill Boyd
Last Mountain-Touchwood	67	25	3	5	Glen Hart
Lloydminster	68	31	1	1	Ted McMillan
Martensville	80	13	2	5	Nancy Heppner
Meadow Lake	52	46	1	1	Jeremy Harrison
Melfort	72	24	3	1	Kevin Phillips
Melville-Saltcoats	66	31	2	1	Bob Bjornerud
Moose Jaw North	53	39	4	4	Warren Michelson
Moose Jaw Wakamow	43	47	5	5	Deb Higgins
Moosomin	79	15	5	1	Don Toth
Prince Albert Carlton	53	41	2	4	Darryl Hickie
Prince Albert Northcote	42	49	5	4	Darcy Furber
Regina Coronation Park	39	50	6	5	Jaime Garcia
Regina Dewdney	47	40	10	5	Gene Makowksy
Regina Douglas Park	38	48	7	7	Dwain Lingenfelter
Regina Elphinstone-Centre	27	59	6	8	Warren McCall
Regina Lakeview	40	42	11	7	John Nilson
Regina Northeast	48	43	4	5	Kevin Doherty
Regina Qu'Appelle Valley	50	35	11	4	Laura Ross
Regina Rosemont	43	47	4	6	Trent Wotherspoon
Regina South	51	35	8	6	Bill Hutchinson
Regina Walsh Acres	37	54	3	6	Sandra Morin
Regina Wascana Plains	60	26	9	5	Christine Tell
Rosetown-Elrose	77	14	3	6	Jim Reiter
Rosthern-Shellbrook	61	33	2	4	Scott Moe
Saskatchewan Rivers	62	35	2	1	Nadine Wilson
Saskatoon Centre	38	53	4	5	David Forbes
Saskatoon Eastview	49	43	3	5	Corey Tochor
Saskatoon Fairview	42	48	5	5	Andy Iwanchuk
Saskatoon Greystone	47	33	15	5	Rob Norris
Saskatoon Massey Place	43	50	3	4	Cam Broten
Saskatoon Meewasin	53	40	4	5	Roger Parent
Saskatoon Northwest	61	32	2	5	Gordon Wyant
Saskatoon Nutana	41	46	6	7	Catherine Sproule
Saskatoon Riversdale	39	54	2	5	Danielle Chartier
Saskatoon Silver Springs	70	21	4	5	Ken Cheveldayoff
Saskatoon Southeast	66	24	5	5	Don Morgan
Saskatoon Sutherland	52	37	5	6	Paul Merriman
Swift Current	78	16	2	4	Brad Wall
The Battlefords	46	40	10	4	Herb Cox
Thunder Creek	75	17	3	5	Lyle Stewart
Weyburn-Big Muddy	68	22	5	5	Dustin Duncan
Wood River	79	11	5	5	Yogi Huyghebaert
Yorkton	66	32	1	1	Greg Ottenbreit

Conclusion
Very little has changed since my last projection. The number crunching does reveal however that there are very few close races in the province. Only four are currently projected to be within 5% of each other (indicated as toss ups on the map). My projection has eliminated five toss up seats, and added one. This gives the NDP a net gain of three projected seats from my last projection, and the Saskatchewan Party receives a net gain of one.

Overall, the Saskatchewan Party is still projected to win a massive majority government, gaining a maximum of 8 seats from the NDP. The NDP's best case scenario at the moment is 16 seats, still four less than they currently hold.

Party	Projected seat totals (toss ups included in table)	Change from last projection	Projected seat totals (toss ups excluded from table)
Sask Party	42	+1	43
NDP	12	+3	15
Toss ups*	4	-4

*Toss ups indicate projections closer than 5%.

Ontario election 2011 prediction (August 11)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith

Another Ontario poll has been released, and that means an update to my projection. Ipsos-Reid released a poll yesterday that was taken over the August long weekend. It shows very different numbers from what we saw earlier in the Summer.

The Liberals are up 7 points from the previous Ipsos-Reid poll taken in June, and are now at 36%. They are in a statistical tie with the Tories who are at 38%, down four points. The NDP is at 23%, up 1% from the last Ipsos-Reid poll, but down 1% from the last Forum Research poll taken a few days prior. The Greens are down to just 3% from 5%.

This means a lot has changed in my projection. Most of the ridings I have projected a large Liberal increase in the vote, mostly at the expense of the Greens. Included in my projection this time around will be the projected winning candidate.

Riding	Lib	PC	NDP	Grn	Projected winning candidate
Ajax—Pickering	45	39	12	4	Joe Dickson
Algoma—Manitoulin	36	19	42	3	Mike Mantha
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	36	44	16	4	Donna Skelly
Barrie	27	50	18	5	Rod Jackson
Beaches—East York	21	22	50	7	Michael Prue
Bramalea—Gore—Malton	42	30	26	2	Kuldip Kular
Brampton West	43	41	14	2	Vic Dhillon
Brampton—Springdale	43	37	17	3	Linda Jeffrey
Brant	43	35	20	2	Dave Levac
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	26	50	15	9	Bill Walker
Burlington	31	49	17	3	Jane McKenna
Cambridge	27	48	22	3	Rob Leone
Carleton—Mississippi Mills	35	49	12	3	Jack MacLaren
Chatham-Kent—Essex	29	46	22	3	Rick Nicholls
Davenport	38	11	48	3	Jonah Schein
Don Valley East	44	32	22	2	Michael Coteau
Don Valley West	47	41	9	3	Kathleen Wynne
Dufferin—Caledon	25	52	10	13	Sylvia Jones
Durham	28	50	18	4	John O'Toole
Eglinton—Lawrence	49	37	12	2	Mike Colle
Elgin—Middlesex—London	27	50	21	2	Jeff Yurek
Essex	25	41	32	2	Dave Brister
Etobicoke Centre	48	38	12	2	Donna Cansfield
Etobicoke North	50	27	21	2	Shafiq Qaadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore	42	37	17	4	Laurel Broten
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	48	37	12	3	Grant Crack
Guelph	45	31	15	8	Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk	23	62	13	2	Toby Barrett
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	36	48	12	4	Laurie Scott
Halton	35	49	14	2	Ted Chudleigh
Hamilton Centre	25	20	50	5	Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	27	31	40	2	Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain	33	27	38	2	Monique Taylor
Huron—Bruce	40	38	20	2	Carol Mitchell
Kenora—Rainy River	30	33	36	2	TBD
Kingston and the Islands	44	32	21	3	John Gerretsen
Kitchener Centre	43	34	20	3	John Milloy
Kitchener—Conestoga	38	42	17	3	Michael Harris
Kitchener—Waterloo	31	47	18	4	Elizabeth Witmer
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex	40	41	17	2	Monte McNaughton
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	33	45	18	4	Randy Hiller
Leeds—Grenville	25	58	13	4	Steve Clark
London North Centre	42	31	22	5	Deb Matthews
London West	47	34	17	2	Chris Bentley
London—Fanshawe	34	31	33	2	Khalil Ramal
Markham—Unionville	48	33	17	2	Michael Chan
Mississauga East—Cooksville	48	36	15	1	Dipika Damerla
Mississauga South	45	43	10	2	Charles Sousa
Mississauga—Brampton South	45	39	15	1	Amrit Mangat
Mississauga—Erindale	43	41	14	2	Harinder Takhar
Mississauga—Streetsville	46	38	13	3	Bob Delaney
Nepean—Carleton	32	52	13	3	Lisa MacLeod
Newmarket—Aurora	35	49	12	4	Frank Klees
Niagara Falls	43	38	16	3	Kim Craitor
Niagara West—Glanbrook	22	58	17	3	Tim Hudak
Nickel Belt	27	20	51	2	France Gelinas
Nipissing	36	47	15	2	Victor Fedeli
Northumberland—Quinte West	40	39	18	3	Lou Rinaldi
Oak Ridges—Markham	39	45	14	2	Farid Wassef
Oakville	46	40	11	3	Kevin Flynn
Oshawa	18	45	35	2	Jerry Ouellette
Ottawa Centre	33	22	41	4	Anil Naidoo
Ottawa South	48	33	16	3	Dalton McGuinty
Ottawa West—Nepean	42	39	16	3	Bob Chiarelli
Ottawa—Orleans	47	40	11	2	Phil McNeely
Ottawa—Vanier	46	26	24	4	Madeleine Meilleur
Oxford	25	54	18	3	Ernie Hardeman
Parkdale—High Park	27	15	53	4	Cheri DiNovo
Parry Sound—Muskoka	20	52	20	8	Norm Miller
Perth—Wellington	41	39	16	4	John Wilkinson
Peterborough	42	33	22	3	Jeff Leal
Pickering—Scarborough East	46	35	16	3	Tracey MacCharles
Prince Edward—Hastings	38	41	19	2	Todd Smith
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	20	67	11	2	John Yakabuski
Richmond Hill	44	39	14	3	Reza Moridi
St. Catharines	42	37	18	3	Jim Bradley
St. Paul's	45	31	19	5	Eric Hoskins
Sarnia—Lambton	24	48	26	2	Bob Bailey
Sault Ste. Marie	52	20	27	1	David Orazietti
Scarborough Centre	43	31	24	2	Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest	40	26	31	3	Lorenzo Berardinetti
Scarborough—Agincourt	51	32	16	1	Soo Wong
Scarborough—Guildwood	41	33	25	1	Margarett Best
Scarborough—Rouge River	56	22	21	1	Bas Balkissoon
Simcoe North	25	55	15	5	Garfield Dunlop
Simcoe—Grey	23	56	13	8	Jim Wilson
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	29	55	15	1	Jim McDonell
Sudbury	50	17	31	2	Rick Bartolucci
Thornhill	35	54	9	2	Peter Shurman
Thunder Bay—Atikokan	33	25	41	1	Mary Kozorys
Thunder Bay—Superior North	42	14	42	2	Michael Gravelle or Steve Mantis
Timikaming—Cochrane	34	20	45	1	John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay	29	25	45	1	Gilles Bisson
Toronto Centre	46	22	27	5	Glen Murray
Toronto—Danforth	27	13	53	7	Peter Tabuns
Trinity—Spadina	33	16	47	4	Rosario Marchese
Vaughan	53	36	10	1	Greg Sorbara
Welland	25	34	39	2	Cindy Forster
Wellington—Halton Hills	27	58	10	5	Ted Arnott
Whitby—Oshawa	26	51	19	4	Christine Elliott
Willowdale	45	38	14	3	David Zimmer
Windsor West	25	26	48	2	Helmi Charif
Windsor—Tecumseh	43	26	29	2	Dwight Duncan
York Centre	43	43	13	1	Monte Kwinter or Michael Mostyn
York South—Weston	40	17	41	2	Paul Ferreira
York West	53	18	28	1	Mario Sergio
York—Simcoe	25	55	16	4	Julia Munro

Conclusion
Despite still trailing in the popular vote, the Liberals would win a minority government in my current projection. This is a huge turnaround from a month ago. The reason for this is because my projection shows the Liberals winning more seats by small margins than the Tories at this point in time. The Tories have a lot of their vote "wasted" in rural ridings, where they are projected to rack up massive majorities, while the Liberals are still only projected to win a majority of the vote in a handful of seats.

The Liberals have secured this projected lead by retaking many of the ridings they were projected to lose in the "905 belt", and are now projected to shutout the Tories in Mississauga, Brampton and Toronto (except for one tie in York Centre). Meanwhile, the Liberals are now projected to win many of their rural seats- at least in ridings where they still have incumbents. Most of those seats are still toss ups, however.

Presently, the Liberal's minimum seat total (42) is still below the Tory maximum (49), meaning that a Tory minority government is still possible. The Liberal maximum is 55, which also happens to be one more seat  than what is needed to win a majority government. The NDP slight decline in this poll (compared to the Forum Research poll) means a projected decrease in two seats from my last projection.The NDP maximum is 20, down 1 from last time.

Party	Projected seat totals (toss ups included in table)	Change from last projection	Projected seat totals (toss ups excluded from table)
	42	+15	50
	35	-7	37
	16	-2	18
Toss ups*	14	-6	2 (ties)

*Toss ups indicate projections closer than 3%.