Kamloops mayoral and council by-elections

Residents of Kamloops, British Columbia will be heading to the polls tomorrow in a mayoral by-election. The city of 90,000 people, located in the British Columbia Interior's Thompson Country has had its top job vacant since its previous mayor, Peter Milobar was elected to the British Columbia legislature in last Spring's provincial election. Milobar had been mayor since 2008, and sits as a member of the BC Liberal Party in Victoria. In addition to the mayoral by-election, there are two city council vacancies which will also be filled in tomorrow's election.

Politically, Kamloops is well known as a bellwether in provincial politics, the area has voted for whichever party that has won the most seats in every provincial election since the first Kamloops riding was created in 1903 (a longer streak than any other part of the province). This continued true in last Spring's election which saw both of Kamloops' ridings vote Liberal, as that party won the plurality of the seats in the BC legislature (the NDP would end up forming government with the help of the Greens). Federally, Kamloops has been more conservative than the country as whole in who it sends to Ottawa. It has been held by the Tories since 2004, and the Canadian Alliance before that (from 2000). Before 2000, the NDP's Nelson Riis held Kamloops' riding, so it has gone NDP recently. It has not voted Liberal since 1974. The 2015 election saw a three-way race between the Conservatives, NDP and Liberals.

Unlike some of the larger cities in British Columbia, there are no municipal parties on city council. But just like nearly every municipality in the province, there are also no wards. In addition to voting for mayor, residents get eight votes for city council for the eight positions available in regular municipal elections.

Map of Kamloops' 17 arbitrarily drawn polling divisions used in the 2014 election

In the last mayoral election in the city, held in 2014, voters got to choose which voting place to vote at, whether it was close to home, close to work, or wherever they wanted to. This means it is impossible to accurately map the results of the election, as not only are there no wards to map the results, there are no polling divisions with definite boundaries to map either. But, I still attempted to map the 2014 mayoral election, by dividing the city into zones with arbitrarily drawn boundaries surrounding the city's 17 polling stations used in that election. Using this method, I was still able to find an obvious pattern in the results. While Milobar easily won re-election with 78% of the vote, his support was much stronger in the city's suburbs, where he won most polls with over 80% of the vote. His support was much weaker in the inner part of the city, with his worst poll being located in the city's downtown, which he won with “just” 68% of the vote. Milobar's main opponent was Pierre Filisetti, an owner of local gardening and landscaping business, who would go on to plead guilty for assault last year in a bear-spray incident. Filisetti's support was stronger where Milobar's wasn't, and vise-versa. As a BC Liberal (which is a right wing party in BC), Milobar's strength was in the same areas that tend to vote for that party in provincial elections. Kamloop's central core, where Milobar's support was weakest usually votes NDP in both provincial and federal elections.

Outlook

In the race to replace Milobar, there are six candidates, but just one really stands out as his likely successor, councillor Ken Christian. Christian was the top vote-getter out of all city council candidates in the 2014 election, winning over 12,000 votes (comparatively, Milobar won over 17,000 votes). Christian has been on Kamloops' City Council since 2008, and was a school trustee prior to that. He has been endorsed by both Kamloops-South Thompson MLA Todd Stone and former mayor and former Kamloops-North Thompson MLA Terry Lake (both Liberals).

The two main candidates for mayor

The candidate who poses the most threat to Christian is probably Bill McQuarrie, who is a columnist for a local TV station. McQuarrie has been campaigning on a “diversified economy” and getting rid of property tax increases. Other candidates include: Non-profit director Glenn Hilke who ran for city council in 2014 (winning 1% of the vote), who is running on affordable housing and other social issues; Former logger Stu Holland, who wants to “represent working people”, and wants to open the proposed Ajax mine, which has been a divisive issue in the city; Mike McKenzie, who wants to “bring the city together” and is a self described “local and national youth and community representative”; and Todd McLeod, and air-ambulance paramedic.

The race for city council will probably be more interesting, as there are 22 candidates running for the two open positions. One of the positions was held by Ken Christian, who resigned to run for mayor. The second position was vacated by Marg Spina, who resigned her seat after being diagnosed with brain cancer. Notable candidates running are former councillor Nancy Bepple who was the NDP's candidate in Kamloops-South Thompson in this year's provincial election, and Kevin Krueger who was a local Liberal MLA from 1996 to 2013 (representing Kamloops-North Thompson from 1996 to 2009 and Kamloops-South Thompson from 2009 to 2013). Another strong candidate is Kathy Sinclair, who is the executive director of the Kamloops Art Council. Not being very familiar with Kamloops politics, I can't make many predictions, but would not be surprised if the city elects two right-of-centre candidates based on its politics.

Polls close at 8pm (11pm Eastern).

British Columbia 2014 municipal elections preview

Tomorrow, voters across British Columbia will vote in municipal elections in each of the province's 162 municipalities, as well as electoral area directors outside of these municipalities, plus Islands Trust councillors, park board commissioners and school district trustees. Additionally, there are also referendums being held in some locations. British Columbia is the only province remaining to hold municipal elections every three years, but recent legislation has moved this to every four years, matching the rest of the nine provinces. The most recent municipal elections were held in 2011, but the next elections after tomorrow's vote will be held in 2018.

Map showing the location of every municipality in British Columbia

Across the province, mayors have already been acclaimed (elected with no opposition) in Alert Bay, Armstrong, Chetwynd, Clinton, Coldstream, Cumberland, Dawson Creek, Delta, Fernie, Fort St. James, Fort St. John, Fruitvale, Granisle, Hazelton, Hudson's Hope, Invernmere, Logan Lake, Lumby, Lutton, Masset, Midway, New Denver, North Vancouver (district), Oliver, Port Alice, Powell River, Princeton, Queen Charlotte, Radium Hot Springs, Silverton, Smithers, Sun Peaks, Tofino, Wells and West Vancouver. Of those municipalities, no council elections will be held at all in Clinton, Granisle, Hazelton, Lumby, New Denver, Princeton, Queen Charlotte, Radium Hot Springs, Silverton and Sun Peaks, as in those municipalities, the entire council was acclaimed. Additionally, all of the councillors in Nakusp, New Hazelton and Taylor were acclaimed, but will still have contested mayoral races.

In every municipality in the province except Lake Country, councils are elected on an at-large basis, representing the entirety of their municipalities. Only in Lake Country, do wards representing the municipality's communities (in addition to having two at-large councillors). In addition to electing at-large municipal councils, the towns of Oliver and Osoyoos have “water councillors” which are elected by residents living outside town limits but are served by the town's water system.

Just like in Quebec, municipal political parties are allowed to exist in the province. Unlike Quebec though, only a few municipalities have parties, including the three largest cities of Vancouver, Surrey and Burnaby. Due to the at-large “block voting” system of councils, where voters have as many votes as there are council spots, having partisan races means that parties will often win every seat on council. This is theoretically true in even close elections. If every supporter of “Party X” votes for the “Party X” slate, and every supporter of “Party Y” votes for the “Party Y” slate, then even if Party X has the support of 51% of the electorate, then they would win every seat in council. In my opinion, this makes block voting even less democratic than the often criticized first past the post system used in most Canadian elections.

Vancouver

British Columbia's largest city looks like it will be having a close two-way horse race between incumbent two-term mayor, Gregor Robertson from the centre-left Vision Vancouver party, and journalist Kirk LaPointe of the centre-right Non-Partisan Association (NPA). Playing spoiler in the race is activist and former federal NDP candidate Meena Wong, who is running for the more left wing Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE). In addition to the mayoral race, parties will fight to control Vancouver's 10-seat city council.

COPE was once the main left wing party in Vancouver, and held a majority on city council from 2002 to 2005. However, internal disagreements during this time led to the formation of the more moderate Vision Vancouver. Despite their disagreements, the two parties did not run mayoral candidates against each other in 2005, 2008 or 2011. In 2011, COPE failed to elect a single candidate to council. In a shift of direction, COPE has decided to run a mayoral candidate in this election.

Vision Vancouver has governed Vancouver since the 2008 election, and has been led by Robertson, (who had previously been an NDP MLA) since his election as mayor that year. Robertson was easily re-elected in 2011, defeating city councillor Suzanne Anton of the NPA 57%-40%. All seven of Vision's candidates were elected to council, while the NPA elected two councillors, and the Green Party's lone candidate was elected. This lone Green was former provincial Green Party leader Adriane Carr, who was elected to the last spot on council, edging out the COPE's Ellen Woodsworth, a sitting city councillor, whom she beat by less than 100 votes.

Parties in Vancouver rarely run full slates for council, failing to take advantage of the block voting system. Vision Vancouver formerly had a deal with COPE to not run a full slate, so that COPE could still elect councillors. This failed to help COPE in 2011 however. In this election, Vision is still only running just eight councillors, perhaps to allow the Greens a chance to increase their presence on council, as they are running three candidates this time. Both the NPA and COPE are running eight councillors as well. No matter what happens, we know there will be at least one opposition party on council.  

As is the norm for most major cities in Canada, Vancouver is a heavily polarized city when it comes to politics. The working class east end of the city is notorious for its support of left wing parties throughout the city's history, on all levels of government. Conversely, the western parts of the city are considerably more wealthy, and vote for more right wing “free market” parties. The 2011 Vancouver election was no exception to this. Robertson's strongest neighbourhoods were in the east end, while Anton won the city's southwest. The key to winning the city is to be able to win the middle class neighbourhoods, such as West Point Grey and Kitsilano in the northwest corner of the city, the Downtown core (including the west end), and the south end of the city.

Council candidates with the most votes by polling division, 2011 election

Due to the block voting system employed for Vancouver's city council election, candidates for council must try to win votes in every part of the city to get elected. This does not mean certain candidates do not have their core areas of support, as seen by my map of which council candidate won the most votes in each polling division. East Vancouverite Raymound Louie of Vision Vancouver won the most votes city wide, with 44% of voters having voted for him. He didn't just win polls in the east end, but in many parts of the city. Other Vision Vancouver candidates only won a few polls, but were still elected. Even Tony Tang, Vision's final councillor to be elected (in 7^th place) was able to tie a poll. Five NPA candidates won polls, despite only two being elected to council. Elizabeth Ball was their strongest candidate, winning the support of 36% of voters. She was especially strong in the Kerrisdale neighbourhood in the southwest part of the city. None of the three COPE candidates won any polls, but Adriane Carr of the Green Party won five polls, all in the “West End” neighbourhood.

Polls are suggesting the race between Robertson and LaPointe is quite close. A recent Insights West poll gave Robertson 46% to 41% for LaPointe's. Wong was at 9%. The race for city council may also be very close. A poll conducted last month by Justason Market Intelligence showed that Green Party councillor Adriane Carr was the most popular candidate running for council, at 52%. Tied for second was the NPA's George Affleck and Vision's Heather Deal. If the two main party's top candidates are tied, it means that city council could be very divided.

Surrey

Another close race is in the cards is in B.C.'s second largest city, Surrey. Three-term incumbent mayor Dianne Watts is calling it quits, to run federally for the nomination of the Conservative Party in the riding of South Surrey—White Rock. The race to replace her will be between three candidates, each having a legitimate shot of winning the mayoralty. Just like Vancouver, Surrey has municipal political parties, but has recently been effectively a “one-party state”. Watts' “Surrey First” party won all eight seats on council in 2011. However, with Watts resigning, there are two new parties with a chance to win seats.

Carrying the Surrey First banner in this election is councillor Linda Hepner, who is running a centrist campaign, promising continuity with the Watts-led council. Hepner is helped by the fact that five of the city's eight councillors are still running for the party. One candidate running against Hepner is former mayor Doug McCallum, a Conservative, who is running for the new “Safe Surrey Coalition”. McCallum was mayor of Surrey from 1996 to 2005, when he was easily defeated by Watts. The third main candidate running for mayor is the labour-backed Barinder Rasode, who was elected to council in 2011 as a member of Surrey First. She is running for the “One Surrey” party. Surrey First is running a full slate of eight candidates for Surrey's eight-seat city council, while One Surrey is running seven candidates, and the Safe Surrey Coalition is running just four.

Insights West's most recent poll shows Hepner and McCallum tied at 33%, while Rasode is within the margin of error at 30%, indicating the election's outcome is anybody's guess. Dianne Watts easily won 80% of the vote in 2011, winning every poll in the city. This election will be very different. Surrey is a very polarized city in terms of race, income, and partisanship (as evidenced in federal and provincial elections) and this will in no doubt effect which parts of the city backs which candidates. Look for McCallum to win in the wealthier south of the city, while Rasode will likely win the more working class and diverse north end of the city, while Hepner will have to do well enough in both ends of the city if she is to win.

Burnaby

In Burnaby, the race for mayor is between four-time incumbent Derek Corrigan and businessman Daren Hancott. The NDP-backed Corrigan leads the Burnaby Citizens Association (BCA), which won all eight seats on city council in 2011. Hancott, a Conservative, heads the new Burnaby First Coalition. Both parties are running full slates once again.

Corrigan was easily re-elected in 2011 with 76% of the vote against Tom Tao, running for the now defunct “TEAM Burnaby”, who won 17%. (Tao is running as an independent for council this time). With two diverse choices this year's election in Burnaby will likely be much closer.

One of the more interesting news stories during the Burnaby campaign was rumours that people associated with Burnaby First were telling people in the Mandarin-speaking community of the city that the BCA “supports the gays” and was “going to give (children) and injection to make them gay”. Hancott has denied these rumours.

Richmond

Running again for mayor of Canada's only Chinese-majority city (or near majority) is incumbent mayor, Malcolm Brodie, who has held that job since 2001. Brodie does not belong to any political party on council, but was a member of the now defunct centre-right Richmond Non-Partisan Association when he was first elected. Brodie's main competition comes from laywer Richard Lee of “Richmond Reform”, who is running a populist campaign. The two ran against each other in 2011 with Brodie winning with 70% of the vote to Lee's 30%.

In 2011, all of city council was elected as independents. However, sitting councillors have divided themselves into two new parties (neither of which is Lee's Richmond Reform, which is only running one candidate). Three of the six incumbents are running for “Richmond First”, two are running for the self-proclaimed non-partisan “Richmond Community Coalition” (RCC), while the remaining incumbent is running as an independent. RCC is running five candidates, while Richmond First is running six candidates to the eight-seat city council. The RCC appears to be the more right wing of the two parties, running on a 15% tax hike over the next five years.

One of the more interesting campaign issues is whether or not to ban Chinese-only signs. Language laws in Canada usually are a debate for communities with large Francophone populations, but it has become an issue in Richmond, where close to a majority of residents are Chinese. There are several businesses in the city with Chinese only signs, and it has angered some residents there. Lee, who is Chinese himself supports banning Chinese-only signs, while Brodie feels the courts would strike down any attempts to ban them.

Abbotsford

In Abbotsford, the one-term incumbent mayor Bruce Banman is facing off against Councillor Henry Braun. Neither represent any political parties, and neither do any of the candidates running for the city council's eight seats. Banman was first elected in 2011, defeating the incumbent mayor, George Peary by just 700 votes.

Coquitlam

Two-term incumbent mayor and former Liberal MLA Richard Stewart faces former mayor and former Liberal MP Lou Sekora, who currently sits on city council. The two are running as independents, but three city councillors have formed a slate for the city council election. The slate, called the “Coquitlam Citizens Association” is backed by the NDP, and are running five candidates to the eight seat council. Four other incumbent councillors are running as independents.

Kelowna

Incumbent mayor Walter Gray is calling it quits after one term. Gray defeated the previous incumbent, Sharon Shepherd by just 400 votes in 2011. Shepherd is running again, and is considered one of two frontrunners to replace Gray. The other is councillor Colin Basran. There are no official parties running in the city, but there is an unofficial party called “TaxPayersFirst”, who made headlines for their plans to turn downtown streets into canals.

Saanich

In Saanich, incumbent mayor Frank Leonard is taking on Richard Atwell, both independents. Leonard has endorsements from the Police and Fire unions. The hot topic in Saanich, as well as several other municipalities in the Greater Victoria area is that of amalgamation. Saanich voters will be presented with a referendum on “community-based review of the governance structure...within the Region”, which is seen as a precursor to amalgamation.

Langley (Township)

Langley mayor Jack Froese is taking on former mayor Rick Green in a re-match of 2011. Froese handily beat Green in 2011, who finished third, after being embroiled in a scandal where Green admitted to misleading the township's council.

Other major races:

Delta: Incumbent mayor Lois Jackson of the “Delta Independent Voters Association” has been re-elected with no opposition.

Kamloops: Incumbent mayor Peter Milobar takes on Pierre Filisetti, Benjamin James and Dallas Paisley.

North Vancouver (District): Incumbent mayor Richard Walton has been re-elected with no opposition.

Nanaimo: Incumbent mayor John Ruttan faces off against nine candidates, including former mayor Gary Korpan, councillor Bill McKay and former councillor Bill Holdom.

Victoria: Incumbent mayor Dean Fortin takes on councillor Lisa Helps and former Liberal MLA Ida Chong. There will also be a referendum on amalgamation.

Chilliwack: Incumbent mayor and Fraser Valley Regional District board chair Sharon Gaetz takes on Raymond Cauchi and Cameron Hill.

Maple Ridge: Incumbent mayor Graham Mowatt takes on councillor Mike Morden and four other candidates.

Prince George: One-term incumbent mayor Shari Green is not running again. Running to replace her is councillor Lyn Hall and former councillor Don Zurowski. Residents face a referendum on water fluoridation.

New Westminster: Incumbent mayor Wayne Wright takes on councillor Jonathan X. Cote, James Crosty and Vladimir Kasnogor.

Port Coquitlam: Two-term incumbent mayor Greg Moore takes on fringe candidate Eric Hirvonen, who ran for council in 2011.

North Vancouver (City): Incumbent mayor Darrell Mussatto takes on Kerry Morris and George Pringle.

West Vancouver: First-term Incumbent mayor Michael Smith is running unopposed, as he was in 2011 when he was first elected.

Vernon: Incumbent mayor Robert Sawatzky is not running for re-election. Running to replace him his councillor Mary-Jo O'Keefe, former councillor Klaus Tribes and three other candidates.

Mission: Incumbent mayor Ted Adlem of the “Citizens for Responsible Municipal Government” is running for re-election. He faces councillor Tony Luck, former councillor Randy Hawes and rural director and NDPer Wendy Bales.

Polls close at 8pm Pacific (11 Eastern).

Westside-Kelowna by-election today

Back in May, British Columbians shocked the political world by re-electing the right of centre BC Liberal Party after every poll predicted the N.D.P. would be victorious. This surprise election win, much akin to last year’s Alberta election has cast doubt in the methodology of pollsters- but could also be attributed to a large number of undecideds sticking with the “devil they know” at the last minute. Either way, the Liberals won, and with three more seats than they had won in the previous 2009 election. But one of the seats they did not win- was Liberal leader (and Premier) Christy Clark’s riding of Vancouver-Point Grey. In fact, the City of Vancouver one of the few parts of the province that swung towards the NDP, and Vancouver-Point Grey saw the biggest swing (7.25%) to the NDP out of any riding in the province.

Province wide swing map (2009-2013)

This loss in Vancouver-Point Grey meant that while Christy Clark’s party had won the election, and she would remain Premier, she was left without a seat in the legislature. Canadian Parliamentary tradition dictates that a member of her caucus in a safe seat must step down as soon as possible to allow a by-election to occur, so that the leader can win and then take his or her seat in the Assembly. For the record, I believe the last time this has happened in Canadian history is when former Alberta Premier Don Getty lost his Edmonton seat in the 1989 provincial election, forcing him to run in a by-election in a safe seat 2 months later.

And so the search began for Clark to find a suitable riding to run in. Her choice was Westside-Kelowna, a riding which had been won by Ben Stewart with 58% of the vote on the May 14 election. This was the sixth best riding for the Liberals in the election, only West Vancouver-Capilano (67%), Vancouver-Quilchena (64%), Kootenay East (63%), Surrey-Cloverdale (59%) and Peace River North (59%) were better for the Liberals.

The riding has voted for right-of-centre parties for much of its history. Following is a list of MLAs for the area since BC joined confederation. The area was represented by three members from 1871 to 1894 and by two members from 1986 to 1991.

Rbt. Smith, Independent (1871-1878)

Jas. Robinson, Independent (1871-1875)

C.A. Semlin, Independent (1871-1875)

F.G. Vernon, Reform caucus (1875-1878), Government (1878-1882)

J.A. Mara, Reform caucus (1875-1878), Government (1878-1886)

Preston Bennett, Government (1878-1882)

C.A. Semlin, Independent (1882-1886), Opposition (1886-1894) 2^nd time

G.B. Martin, Opposition (1882-1886), Government (1886-1894)

F.G. Vernon, Government (1886-1894) 2^nd time

Donald Graham, Opposition (1894-1898)

Price Ellison, Government (1898-1903), Conservative (1903-1916)

J.W. Jones, Conservative (1916-1933)

J.A. Harris, Liberal (1933-1937)

C.R. Bull, Liberal (1937-1941)

W.A.C. Bennett, Conservative (1941-1945), Coalition (1945-1952), Social Credit (1952-1975)

W.R. Bennett, Social Credit (1975-1986)

L. Chalmers, Social Credit (1986-1991)

C.J. Serwa, Social Credit (1986-1996)

Mrs. S.K. Hawkins, Liberal (1996-2001)

R. Thorpe, Liberal (2001-2009)

B.R. Stewart, Liberal (2009-2013)

Location of the riding

Westside-Kelowna consists of 2 parts, divided by Lake Okanagan. Over 2/3 of the population of the riding lives on the west side of Lake Okanagan, in an area collectively known as “Westside”. On the west side of Lake Oakanagan, the riding runs from the edge of the Okanagan Indian reserve in the north to the community of Gellatly in the south. Most of the people in the riding of the west side of Lake Okanagan live in the new District of West Kelowna, which was incorporated in 2007. This is a fast growing suburb of Kelowna. The Westside also includes the Westbank First Nation, which is actually home to more White people than Aboriginals.  On the other side of Lake Okangan, the riding makes a small abut into the central part of the City of Kelowna. Less than 1/3 of the riding’s population lives in Kelowna. The two parts of the riding are connected by the William R. Bennett Bridge.

Political geography

Westside-Kelowna 2013 poll map

Politically, both parts of the riding are very Liberal. However, the west side of the riding is much more so than the central Kelowna portion. In May, the NDP won just 5 polls on the west side of Lake Okanagan, 4 of which were in the Westbank neighbourhood of West Kelowna. The Liberals saw their strongest areas along the coast of Lake Okanagan in West Kelowna as well as the area around Shannon Lake. The NDP does much better in the Kelowna portion of the riding. They won 14 polls there in the last election, three of which in the North End, and four in the Central City. Much like on the west side of Lake Okanagan, Liberal support in Kelowna is strongest in polls along the lake.

Westside-Kelowna % swing by poll (2009-2013)

In an attempt to get some sort of idea as to what kinds of areas swung NDP and which areas swung Liberal between the 2009 and 2013 elections, I also created a swing map of the riding. However, after making the map, I can’t see much in terms of patterns. There are some areas that swung heavily Liberal which are right next to areas that swung heavily to the NDP. In general however, the area is slowly swinging to the Liberals. Between 2005 and 2009, the riding saw a 1.2% swing to the Liberals. Between 2009 and 2013, it saw a further 4.4% swing. The Westside has always been a Liberal stronghold, but the Liberals have seen increasing numbers there. In Kelowna, the swing has been more pronounced. In the Kelowna portion of the riding, the NDP won 16 polls in 2005, 15 in 2009 and 14 in 2013. A slow, steady decline, while the rest of Kelowna has seen the Liberals ever increasing their vote.

(JP Kirby has poll maps for all three elections here: http://www.election-atlas.ca/bc/85/WTK.php?e=2013)

Candidates

And so, voters in the riding go to the polls today to in the very least replace Ben Stewart. In all likelihood, Premier Clark will win the riding to get her seat in the Assembly. The only thing in that may stop her is the fact that she has no ties in the riding, as she hails from the Lower Mainland, not the Interior- and there may be local anger over losing their local MLA in Stewart. But, voting for any of the other parties wont get him back. It has been the tradition in by-elections for major parties to not compete in by-elections against the leader of another party. However, the NDP has never followed that tradition, and thus will be running a candidate against Clark. They will be running Carole Gordon, a teacher who actually lives in the area. The Conservatives, which won no seats in May are also competing in the riding, hoping to take disgruntled right-of-centre voters away from the Liberals- perhaps in one last bid for legitimacy. They are running local realtor Sean Upshaw. The Greens are notably not running in the by-election, the only party to “respect” the tradition of not running against the leader of another party in a by-election. In addition, there are four independent candidates, and one representing the fringe Vision party. Polls close tonight at 8pm Pacific (11 Eastern).

British Columbia provincial election projection maps

Today is the day of the B.C. provincial election, and unfortunately, unlike past provincial elections, I had not been doing routine projection. However, I couldn’t let the election period go by without doing some sort of projection, so I have crunched the most recent polls to come up with a purely math based projection to see how the results tonight may turnout. In previous projections, I have liked to factor in what I like to call “qualitative” data- that is taking a look at what people are saying about various districts to get a sense of how they may differ from normal trends. In my math-based projection, I have ignored this completely. For example, while I believe the Greens will win the riding of Oak Bay-Gordon Head, my math based projection shows otherwise, because I have purposely not taken into consideration local factors this time. I want to be able to show a transparent projection this time.

For my projection, I have taken a look at the most recent polls from Justason, Ipsos-Reid, Forum Research, Hill & Knowlton and Angus Reid. These are the only pollsters that had regional crosstabs. The most common regional breakdowns used are “Metro Vancouver”, “Vancouver Island” and “Interior”. So, I have taken an average of the regional breakdowns for those three areas (taking out the polls that don’t use those regional breakdowns) and looked for the difference between the 2009 provincial election results in those regions and the average:

	Liberal avg.(change from 2009)	NDP avg. (change from 2009)	Green avg. (change from 2009)	Cons avg. (change from 2009)	Other avg. (change from 2009)
Interior	38 (-8.8)	38.5 (-0.4)	10.5 (+2.6)	9 (+4.0)	5 (+3.5)
Vancouver Island	29.2 (-9.5)	44.4 (-5.6)	18.4 (+8.0)	7 (+6.7)	1.8 (+1.0)
Metro Vancouver	34.5 (-13.9)	47.55 (+6.4)	9.6 (+2.2)	5.45 (+4.8)	2.8 (+0.6)

Next, I factored in these swings to each riding in their respected three regions. For the Liberals and the NDP, I also factored in the trend between the 2005 and 2009 elections. So, if a riding is trending Liberal, that riding will not see as adverse swing as a riding that is trending NDP (and vise vera). Whatever percentage I got from this, I used in my projection. It’s not the best way of doing it, but at least it will give a good idea of how the election will shape up.

Here is the map:

Math based projection

For the record, this gives us 53 NDP seats, 30 Liberals and 2 Independents. Seats that were decided within 5% include Boundary-Similkameen, Cariboo-Chilcotin, Chilliwack, Kamloops-North Thompson, Comox Valley, Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Langley, North Vancouver-Lonsdale, Port Moody-Coquitlam, Surrey-Panorama, Peace River North and Vancouver-Langara. It is safe to say that most of these ridings will be one’s to watch tonight. The two independent seats are Delta South and Peace River North. Delta South was won by an Independent last election, and the Independent who did quite well in Peace River North in 2009 is running again.

But of course, using math is not the only way to make an election projection. I also scoured the internet last night to find what other projectors were saying. I compiled the results, and made another map based on their cumulative projections. I took a look at electionpredictions.org, The Tye, Teddy Boragina, BC Iconoclast, threehundredeight.com, Global TV, tooclosetocall.ca and BC2013.com. It should be noted that some of these projectors may have made predictions this morning that may affect the map. But, it does serve as another useful tool in predicting the election. Because I used 8 predictors, there were several ridings that were evenly split in terms of which party was projected to win. These were Prince George-Valemount (4 NDP, 4 Liberal), Cariboo North (3 Independent, 3 Liberal, 1 NDP, 1 too close to call), Chilliwack (4 NDP, 4 Liberal), Oak Bay-Gordon Head (3 NDP, 3 Green, 1 Liberal, 1 too close to call) and Vancouver-Langara (4 NDP, 4 Liberal). My math based projection has these ridings going the following:

*Prince George-Valemount: Liberal (43%-36%)

*Cariboo North: NDP (50%-36%) – the sitting MLA, an independent and former NDPer complicates things.

*Chilliwack: NDP (36%-32%)

*Oak Bay-Gordon Head: NDP (39%-37%) – a strong Green campaign complicates things

*Vancouver-Langara: Liberal (45%-41%)

Aggregate prediction map from 8 predictors

The cumulative projections also differ from my projection in a number of ridings. In addition to the ties, these include Vernon-Monashee (I have going Liberal), Chilliwack-Hope (I have going Liberal, but the riding does have an NDP MLA thanks to a by-election), Comox Valley (I have going Liberal) and Parksville-Qualicum (I have going Liberal). Really, there is not much difference, but it does look like other projectors are slightly more NDP-friendly in terms of their predictions. In looking at the cumulative results, there are 5 ties, 2 ridings to go independent, 25 Liberal and 53 New Democrat seats. Oh, and for the record on both these maps, Liberal Premier Christy Clark loses her seat. 

Polls will be closing at 8PM Pacific tonight (11pm). Expect some commentary from me on my Twitter feed. I just hope it doesn’t go too late into the night!

British Columbia provincial swing and trend maps

The BC provincial election will be held in one week, and with that is time for some more maps in an effort to analyze British Columbia politics. Today’s post will take a look at two maps comparing the last two provincial elections (2005 and 2009). One map shows the swing between the two elections and the other shows the trend between the two elections. It is my hope that these maps will be helpful in determining how British Columbians will vote next Tuesday, and perhaps explain some of the surprises that could be in store.

Swing map (2005-2009)

The first map shows the swing between 2005 and 2009. As I explained in my last post, the swing is a calculation that shows the average gain of one party vs. the loss of the other party. Because BC is for the most part a two-party province (NDP and Liberals), I have made the swing calculation across all provinces as between those two parties. The overall swing between the two elections was miniscule- just 0.3% towards the NDP. This has meant that the map is all over the place, with 44 ridings having swung towards the Liberals and 41 having swung to the NDP (despite the overall swing being to the NDP). The Liberals gained 3 seats between the two elections, and the NDP gained 2 (there were less seats in 2005). Notionally however, the NDP lost 4 seats while the Liberals gained 3 (and 1 Independent was elected). So even though there was a swing towards the party, they (notionally) lost seats!

Overall, all 73 of the 85 ridings had a swing that was within 5% of the provincial average. 4 ridings swung more than that towards the Liberals and 8 ridings swung more than that to the NDP. The riding that swung the most towards the Liberals was Vancouver-False Creek that saw nearly a 9% swing. This can perhaps be attributed to the condo boom in the riding, which has meant an influx of wealthy individuals. However on the flip side another riding experiencing a condo boom- Vancouver-West End saw a huge swing towards the NDP (7.5%). The other three ridings that experienced a large swing towards the Liberals were Delta South (thanks to Independent candidate Vicki Huntington winning and taking much of the NDP vote with her), Peace River South and Kootenay East. The riding that saw the highest swing towards the NDP was Surrey-Newton, which saw an 8.2% swing. The Liberals had a high profile candidate in 2005 (Olympic gold medallist Daniel Igali) and their vote collapsed in 2009. However, Surrey-Newton was not the only Surrey riding with heavy swings towards the NDP. Both Surrey-Green Timbers and Surrey-Whalley had swings of over 7% towards the NDP. Those ridings also happen to have a heavy Indo-Canadian population, and show that there may be a shift going on in that community. Other ridings that showed a high swing to the NDP include Nanaimo, Juan de Fuca, Port Coquitlam and Powell River-Sunshine Coast.

In looking at the swing map, the most obvious pattern is that for the most part, Liberal held seats swung towards the Liberals while NDP seats swung towards the NDP. There are many exceptions of course, but this is the overall trend. What this shows is that incumbency matters. Ridings that the Liberals notionally won in the 2005 election on average had a swing of 1.3% towards themselves, while ridings that the NDP notionally won in 2005 had an average swing of 2.3% towards themselves.  This is food for thought for anyone wanting to do a prediction.

For the record, ridings where the NDP notionally won in 2005 but saw swings away from them include Vancouver-Mount Pleasant, Nelson-Creston, Vancouver-Fairview (a riding they would lose in 2009), Kamloops-North Thompson (a notional loss of a seat, as they didn’t in actuality win a seat in Kamloops), Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge-Mission (another notional loss of a seat), Cariboo-Chilcotin (seat loss), and Burnaby North (another loss). One thing that this proves is that even though a seat may have notionally gone NDP in 2005, a lack of an NDP incumbent plus actually having a Liberal incumbent is a good indicator of a swing towards the Liberals. Meanwhile, 2005 notional Liberal ridings that swung NDP include Peace River North, Abbotsford West, Chilliwack, Parksville-Qualicum, Vancouver-Fraserview, Stikine, Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Burnaby-Deer Lake (NDP gain), Boundary-Similkameen, Saanich South (notional loss with an NDP incumbent), Saanich North and the Islands and Vernon-Monashee.

Trend map

The second map is the trend map. This map is almost identical to the swing map, as all it shows is the swing in a riding (to the NDP) minus 0.3%. The trend shows how the riding swung compared to the provincial average. Another way of looking at it is how the riding would have swung if the provincial swing was exactly 0%. Since the provincial swing towards the NDP was 0.3%, this is how much was taken off the swing in each riding to calculate the trend. Because the swing was so close to zero in the first place, the trend map isn’t very different from the swing map. In elections with huge swings however, trend maps are useful to see which areas are less susceptible to large swings than others.

The biggest change to look for on the trend map is the ridings that swung NDP but trended Liberal. There are only three of these ridings. They are Parksville-Qualicum, Boundary-Similkameen and Vancouver-Hastings. Out of all the ridings in the province, Vancouver-Hastings was the riding that was the closest to the provincial average in terms of its swing. Its trend towards the Liberals was less than 0.1%.  BC electoral geographers like to point to Kamloops as the provincial bellwether (as goes Kamloops, as does BC), but perhaps Vancouver-Hastings, a safe-NDP seat in Vancouver’s east end is the best indicator of BC vote swing?


So what does this all mean for next week’s election? Well, let’s take a look at the eight ridings I identified in my last blog post as the next eight ridings to go NDP with a uniform swing. These are the 8 ridings the NDP would win first en route to a majority government with a uniform swing. Presently, polls are showing an average swing of 6% to the NDP. This would give the NDP these eight ridings plus an additional six more.

Maple Ridge-Mission: As mentioned, the NDP notionally won this riding in 2005, but in reality it did not win the riding then known as “Maple Ridge-Mission”. With its current borders, the NDP won the seat by just 0.4%. With its borders in 2005, the Liberals won it by 0.7%. In 2009, the Liberal incumbent did not run again, but the Liberals were buoyed by at least being the incumbent party in the riding. This gave the Liberals a very small swing, enough to win the riding despite its new, more NDP-friendly borders. It was close though, as the Liberals won by just 0.3%. Given recent polls, even a modest pro-incumbency boost will not be enough to keep the NDP from winning this seat based on this very small trend.

Cariboo-Chilcotin: This riding is the successor riding of Cariboo South, a riding that the NDP won in 2005. Despite the re-name, the NDP still would’ve won the riding on its new 2009 borders by about 3%. While this is close, with the power of incumbency, and small province-wide swing towards the NDP, there was no reason for the NDP to lose the seat in 2009. However, the party did lose the riding, by a razor thing margin of 0.5%. This translated to a 3% trend to the Liberals. This was the third largest trend to the Liberals out of all NDP notionally-held seats. If this pro-Liberal trend continues, the NDP might find it hard to win this seat, despite only having lost it by 78 votes in 2009. The NDP is running the same candidate in Charlie Wyse, so if his record as an MLA hurt him last election, it could hurt him again.

Saanich North and the Islands: According to the map, most of Vancouver Island is trending towards the NDP, and polls show the NDP with a large lead on the Island. One of the few ridings they do not hold there is Saanich North and the Islands. This riding is formerly a safe one for the Liberals, having won it even in the 1990s when the NDP was winning majority governments. However, it has been trending heavily towards the NDP over the last 20 years, and the party cam within striking distance in 2009 when they lost it by 0.8%. It was one of only a small number of Liberal-held ridings to trend to the NDP. Only three other notionally Liberal ridings had higher swings to the NDP. Given polls, this riding would be a shoe-in for the NDP to win based on trends alone. However, the riding is held federally by Green Party leader Elizabeth May, and the provincial Greens are polling quite well on the island. This is one of their targeted ridings, and if they take more votes away from the NDP than the Liberals, they BC Liberals would still win.

Oak Bay-Gordon Head: This is another Liberal-held riding on Vancouver Island that is trending NDP. Despite holding the seat since 1996, sitting MLA Ida Chong seems to have no incumbency advantage behind her. She won the seat by 2.2% in 2009, but had notionally won it by 3.3% in 2005. Again, given trends and polls this riding should be ripe for the NDP to win, but is again complicated by the Green Party. The Greens are running their biggest campaign in this riding, and there is no reason to suggest they don’t have a good chance of winning it. This riding spans Elizabeth May’s riding and the federal riding of Victoria which just had a by-election a few months ago. If you recall the result of that by-election, the Greens very nearly doubled their seats in Parliament to 2 by almost winning it. And the polls in Oak Bay-Gordon Head? They went Green.

Kamloops-North Thompson: One area pundits like to call a bellwether in BC politics, is Kamloops, so there is no surprise in finding a Kamloops riding on this list. (It should be noted that this riding isn't the perfect bellwether, having voted for the opposition Liberals in 1996). This riding was one of those ridings that the NDP notionally won in 2005, but in reality did not. In fact, in reality, the Liberals won the Kamloops-North Thompson seat by over 8 points. On the 2009 boundaries however, the NDP would have won the seat by 2.1%. However in 2009, the Liberals won the seat by 2.4%. They were bolstered again by party incumbency. While their sitting MLA retired, it was no matter. The Liberals in reality held the seat and that gave them an advantage. The area may also be trending to the Liberals. Indeed, it did trend to the Liberals by 2.5% between 2005 and 2009. If the riding continues to trend Liberal, it might be difficult for the NDP to win it, despite how close it was last time.

Burnaby North: It might come as a surprise to the casual observer that this riding (and neighbouring Burnaby-Lougheed) are Liberal-held ridings. Especially considering the federal seat that spans both ridings has gone NDP in every election since 1979. No matter, the north end of Burnaby is the least NDP friendly part of the city. However, the NDP still held their own in the 2009 election, losing the seat by just 2.7%. In 2005, the NDP actually notionally won the seat by 0.5%. But the Liberals won the riding in reality and again, were boosted by having the incumbent. The riding had an overall trend of 1.9% to the Liberals. If that is repeated again in this election, it might just be low enough for the NDP to win it back.

Burnaby-Lougheed: Next door to Burnaby North is the very similar riding of Burnaby-Lougheed. It is also a marginal northern Burnaby seat. However, unlike Burnaby North, its 2005 notional results had the Liberals winning it, albeit by just 2.8%. Burnaby-Lougheed had a smaller trend to the Liberals than Burnaby North, at less than 1%. In 2009, MLA Harry Blow (who had previsioulsy represented the now defunct riding of “Burquitlam”) won the seat by 3.6%. All things considered, the trend may be low enough for the NDP to win this riding as well.

Vancouver-Fraserview:This riding has been a good bellwether in its history, having voted for the majority party in every election since its creation in 1991. And, it's a riding trending NDP (albeit narrowly). In 2005, the Liberals won the seat by 5%. This was narrowed down to less than 4% in 2009. One thing that helped was the Liberal incumbent, Wally Oppal was not running again. Also at play is the large South Asian community in this riding. We know the South Asians in Surrey are partly responsible for ridings trending NDP there. While we haven't seen that to a large degree in Fraserview, it is not inconceivable to see South Asians go NDP here as well. It would not take a large swing in this riding for the NDP to take this riding, and if you factor in the small trend to the NDP, this riding will probably go NDP on election day.

If the NDP can't win all 8 of those ridings, they could have difficulty winning the next lowest hanging fruit based on trends alone. Of the next 5 ridings on the swingometre, only Vernon-Monashee saw a trend to the NDP between 2005 and 2009. However at this point, polls show the NDP can overcome most of these trends.

British Columbia provincial election "swing-o-metre"

British Columbians head to the polls next month (May 14) to elect a new government. In the past, I have made provincial election predictions, but unfortunately due to my new position at Probit Inc. I will be holding off on making predictions, due to possible conflict of interest purposes. However, I will be making various geography related posts in having to do with the upcoming election, including projections based solely on published polls, without factoring in any hearsay like I have done in the past.

Today, I take a look at the B.C. “swing-o-metre”, a simple measurement tool that shows how much swing is needed for the Liberals or the NDP (B.Cs two main parties) to win a seat. A swing is a calculation that is the average change between the Liberals and the NDP. For example, the most recent Ipsos-Reid poll shows the NDP at 48% and the Liberals at 29%. For the NDP, that would be an increase of 6% from their showing in the last election in 2009. For the Liberals, that would be a decrease of 17%. If you average those two numbers you get about 11.5%, which would be the swing from the Liberals to the NDP.

The chart on the left shows the swing needed for either party to win each seat from the result they got in the last election. For example, for the Liberals to win the riding of Surrey-Green Timbers, they would need a 24% swing from the NDP. On the other extreme is the riding of West Vancouver-Capilano which would require a 26% swing from the Liberals to the NDP in order for the NDP to take the riding. This swing-o-metre works because all but one seat in the legislature was won by either party in 2009. One riding, Delta South was won by an independent, however I kept that riding on the chart to show how much the NDP would need in order to get ahead of the Liberals there (but not necessarily win).

In the 2009 election, the conservative leaning BC Liberals, lead by then Premier Gordon Campbell won a majority of the province's 85 ridings by winning 48 seats to the N.D.P.'s 35. (As mentioned, 1 seat was won by an Independent). Since then, Campbell's government became very unpopular, and he resigned. He was replaced by Christy Clark, who as of yet has been unable to rescue the party. During her reign, the province has seen the rise of the even more right wing Conservative Party, which had been a fringe party. It is now lead by former MP John Cummins. While the new Conservatives may not win any seats, they are polling in the low teens, and that vote is coming straight from the Liberals. However, even if the Liberals and the Conservatives were a united force, they still wouldn't match the polling the NDP is at. The NDP is at historic highs in the polls, led by popular leader Adrian Dix. Most polls show the NDP in the mid-40s, and the Liberals in the high 20s. There is also the BC Green Party, which is polling around the level of the Conservatives.

The most recent polls, from last week show a 7-12% swing from the Liberals to the NDP from the last election. According to the swing-o-metre, this would give the NDP 55-65 seats, a strong majority. The swing-o-metre also shows that the NDP needs only a swing of 1.93% to get a majority of the seats (43). This swing would give them the ridings of Maple Ridge-Mission, Cariboo-Chilcotin, Saanich North and the Islands, Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Kamloops-North Thompson, Burnaby North, Burnaby-Lougheed and Vancouver-Fraserview. To get to those 55 seats, the NDP would also win Vernon-Monashee, Surrey-Tynehead, Vancouver-Point Grey (Premier Clark's riding), North Vancouver-Lonsdale, Chilliwack, Port Moody-Coquitlam (a riding they hold now, thanks to a by-election win last Spring), Penticton, Prince George-Valemount and Parksville-Qualicum (securing a sweep of Vancouver Island). Of course, this only assumes a province-wide uniform swing, which we know wont actually happen. But it's a rough guide to see what riding's are in play. 

Swing-o-metre map. The darker the riding, the larger the swing necessary for the opposing party to win.

 

British Columbia federal riding boundary proposal analysis part 3 (Northern Lower Mainland)

Current riding boundaries

Part three of my analysis of British Columbia's proposed ridings focuses on the Northern Lower Mainland. Mainly, the north shore of the Burrard Inlet, the City of Burnaby, and the eastern suburbs of Vancouver on the north side of the Fraser River as far as Maple Ridge. This region has a population of about 823,000 people. The region presently has seven ridings, but it is set to gain one more.

The new riding being proposed for the region is perhaps the most troublesome issue with the commission's proposal for the area. The reason for this is, the proposed riding (Burnaby North—Seymour) spans the Burrard Inlet, connecting two very different communities of interest. What's more is there is no connection between the two areas in the riding. You have to leave the riding briefly to cross over on to the other side.

Proposed riding boundaries

Another point of contention is the fact that the city of Port Coquitlam, currently all within the riding of Port Moody—Westwood—Port Coquitlam will now be divided into 3 separate ridings. Two of which will not even use the name of the city in their proposed names.

Finally, my last point of contention is that there are a number of ridings in the region that are under populated. Now, the area is home to a lot of fast growing communities, but the fact that some of the ridings are going to have less than 100,000 people (the average riding population in BC will be 105,000) means that there will be ridings in other parts of the province that are too large.

Overall, the proposed changes benefit the Conservatives the most in this area. The new riding of Burnaby North—Seymour looks to be a safe Conservative seat, while another proposed riding (Port Moody—Coquitlam) looks like it may have lost its NDP edge (although that might not matter with the NDP polling higher these days).

Here are the proposed ridings:

West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea To Sky Country

This riding, located northwest of Vancouver is much too large at present, being home to 134,000 people. To bring it down to size, the commission removed two sections of the riding. It removed the Powell River area, as well as the neighbourhoods of Pemberton Heights and Norgate in the city of North Vancouver. These two neighbourhoods are the only populated parts of that city located within the riding.

Powell River is a mixed area, with the north end are the areas around the city being NDP, while the south end of the city is Conservative. Therefore the loss of this region wont affect the political make up of the riding too much. The area being lost in North Vancouver is a more Tory friendly area, but is more moderate than its neighbours in the City of West Vancouver. The new population of the riding will be 106,000. While the riding would lose 28,000 people, it would not be changed that much politically.

North Vancouver

At 127,000, the riding of North Vancouver is much too large. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea To Sky County's loss of Pemberton Heights and Norgate has meant that North Vancouver has to take that area as well. So, some of the riding has to be removed. The commission decided to take out the part of the riding to the east of Lynn Creek. This area being lost (the Mt Seymour area) is more Conservative than the rest of the riding. The political make up of the riding wouldn't change much though, as Norgate and Pemberton Heights are also Conservative areas. The population of the new riding would be 107,000.

Burnaby North—Seymour

This is a brand new riding that the commission has proposed and is probably the most controversial. Why? Well, it combines two different areas, separated by the Burrard Inlet, that are only connected by a bridge that isn't even in the riding (it's located just outside the boundary). The riding combines the Seymour area of North Vancouver (the south slop of Mt. Seymour), with the northern 1/3^rd of Brunaby, north of the Lougheed Highway (currently in Burnaby—Douglas). The consensus seems to be that this bizarre set up is unavoidable, because the north shore of the Greater Vancouver area has gotten too big for 2 ridings, and so, one had to cross the Burrard Inlet somewhere. Going east would be even worse, because that would mean crossing Indian Arm, and there are no bridges connecting the area with the Port Moody suburbs on the other side. However, if you take out Squamish and Whistler from West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country, and move that riding into North Vancouver, and move North Vancouver eastward into the Seymour area, you solve this problem. Anyways, I would prefer this riding to be named “Burnaby—Seymour” instead, though that's just semantics. While having the word north is more accurate, ridings tend to not have directional names in the name when an area is combined with another.

Burnaby North—Seymour would probably be a Conservative riding. The north end of Burnaby is the most Conservative part of the city, while the Seymour area in North Vancouver is very Conservative.

Burnaby South—Deer Lake

This riding would be located in the southwestern corner of Burnaby, but also includes the central part of Burnaby, around Deer Lake and Burnaby Lake. About half of the riding is created out of the current Burnaby—New Westminster riding, and the other half comes from Burnaby—Douglas. The riding has an odd shape, with an appendage sticking out to include the area around Charles Rummel Park that is mostly isolated from the rest of the riding. I believe the ridings in the city could be reconfigured to avoid this situation.

This riding would probably vote NDP, but contains the more conservative part of Burnaby—New Westminster, and some Conservative areas from Burnaby—Douglas. However, most of the riding is NDP friendly. With the creation of Burnaby North—Seymour, a series of (reverse?) musical chairs for the sitting members of Parliament and where they choose to run. None of the NDP MP's in the area are likely to run in the Seymour riding, so that would force the Burnaby—Douglas MP Kennedy Stewart to run in this riding. Although much of the area would be new to him, since his current riding consists of the north half of the city.

New Westminster—Burnaby East

This proposed riding would re-unite the City of New Westminster in one riding (except for a small area south of the North Arm which has been removed from the riding), and also takes in the neighbouring parts of Burnaby. Presently, New Westminster is located in two separate ridings. The eastern half is in New Westminster—Coquitlam, and the western half is in Burnaby—New Westminster. The Burnaby part of the riding is completely located in the current riding of Burnaby—New Westminster. This riding looks good on a map, as it's nice and compact, and contains two close knit areas, that have a similar community of interest. Again, I would drop the orientation “East” from the riding name, giving it a better sounding name, “New Westminster—Burnaby”.

This riding would be a very safe NDP riding, as it contains the most NDP-friendly parts of Burnaby, and combines it with New Westminster which a very NDP friendly city in its own right. Most of the riding comes from Burnaby—New Westminster, so it's safe to suggest that its MP, Peter Julian would want to run in this riding. He also lives in New Westminster, so it only makes sense to run there.

Port Moody—Coquitlam

This riding would come mostly from the current riding of New Westminster—Coquitlam. Except, without the New Westminster part, plus it gains some territory to compensate. The riding would now have its eastern border moved from the Coquitlam /Port Coquitlam boundary eastward to Shaughnessy Street in Port Coquitlam, taking in a few neighbourhoods in from that city. Since the Coquitlam part of this riding is bigger than the Port Moody part, the name of the riding in my opinion should actually be “Coquitlam—Port Moody”. That's just my suggestion (one wonders why Port Moody was left out of the name for the riding of New Westminster—Coquitlam”. Another problem with this riding is its population of 98,000 is very small, perhaps too small for the riding. The commission has justified these undersized ridings in fast growth areas, such as this part of the province. While it's acceptable in my opinion to have undersized ridings in fast growing areas, this riding is too underpopulated.

New Westminster—Coquitlam is already a riding where the Tories and NDP are running very close to eachother. NDP MP Fin Donnelly won the riding by just 2200 votes in 2011. Losing New Westminster, an NDP stronghold is bad news for him. What's worse, is that the new gained territory-albeit small is very Conservative. However, given the NDP's current polling numbers, I wouldn't be surprised if he still wins the riding, should he choose to run there.

Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam 

 

At 130,000 the fast growing riding of Port Moody—Westwood--Port Coquitlam had to be shrunk down. The commission decided to remove parts of the riding located in the city of Port Coquitlam. Presently, all of Port Coquitlam is in the riding, however the commission proposed moving all of the riding south of the Lougheed Highway into two other ridings, splitting the city into three. This would bring down the size of the riding to 104,000 people.

My big question is why did the riding's name change? The only areas lost were in Port Coquitlam. Also, the proposed name sounds redundant, mentioning Coquitlam twice. That's probably why “Westwood” is in the name currently, as that's the part of Coquitlam in the riding. Also, the new name of the riding leaves out Port Moody altogehter, just like the current riding of New Westminster—Coquitlam leaves out Port Moody. However, the two ridings represent two different parts of Port Moody. Anyways, I would suggest keeping the name of this riding as “Port Moody—Westwood—Port Coquitlam”.

Every single poll south of the Lougheed Highway went Conservative, so it's possible that the riding has become less Conservative, albeit not by much. The riding still includes the wealthy northern parts of Coquitlam and Port Moody, making the riding still Conservative in its nature.

Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge

This riding would come mostly from the existing riding of Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge—Mission. At 132,000 the riding is currently too large, which is why the commission had to carve out a large chunk of it. The commission decided to remove all of the District of Mission from the riding, as well as a rural part of eastern Maple Ridge. They moved the boundary westward to 248 St in Maple Ridge, removing the communities of Websters Corners and Whonnock from the riding in addition to Mission. The riding also has to gain some territory, as a large part of Port Coquitlam was removed from the riding of Port Moody—Westwood—Port Coquitlam. The part contains much of the southern half of Port Coquitlam, south of the Lougheed Hwy and east of Shaughnessy Street. This new chunk in Port Coquitlam is geographically isolated from the rest of the riding, because the Pitt River separates the area from Pitt Mewadows. The only connection is the Lougheed Hwy, which crosses the river as the riding's boundary. With the new addition of part of Port Coquitlam, I wonder why the commission left out the community in the riding name. Why not call the riding “Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge—Port Coquitlam”? These changes would put the population of the riding at just 97,000. The riding is located in a fast growing area of province, but this is just too small for my liking.

Currently, the riding is mostly Conservative, but has two pockets of NDP strength in the downtown sections of Maple Ridge and Mission. The riding has been an NDP target in the past, especially when the Liberals were strong enough to eat into the Tory vote. However, with the loss of Mission and the gain of a Conservative part of Port Coquitlam, this riding becomes even more Conservative, and even more impossible for the NDP to gain.