NDP leadership endorsement map - as of Dec 31

If the past is any indication, mapping the upcoming N.D.P. leadership race will be difficult to do. You see, the party has- at least not in recent memory ever produced any geographical breakdowns of their leadership races. This is quite unfortunate for the cartographically inclined, but I suppose it comes from the party not wanting to create any regional hostilities.

One thing we can map however, are the endorsements. The endorsements will give us a clue into how certain candidates will do in various areas. It is the next best thing to getting actual regional numbers. This is why I have created an endorsement map to show off where the regional strengths are for each of the eight candidates in the running. I do hope to keep updating the map; at least on a monthly basis until the March 24th convention in Toronto.

Revised 01/01/12

The map
On this map, I have coloured in some of the ridings, if the MP from that riding has endorsed a certain candidate. I have used symbols to indicate endorsements for other politicians, such as MLAs, past MPs and municipal politicians.

If endorsements give us any indication as to how well certain candidates are doing, then the race looks to be between Quebec MP Thomas Mulcair and former party president Brian Topp. That is what the media has kept saying as well. Mulcair's strength appears to be concentrated mostly in Quebec, which will be a problem for him if true. Quebec, despite having a majority of the NDPs MPs has few party members so far. The province has, at last count just 6000 members out of a nation wide total of 100,000. Topp also has some strength in Quebec, as well as in B.C., where he has a majority of the endorsements. He may also "win" Saskatchewan, where he used to work for the Romanow government there. If Topp wins both these provinces, he will be looking very good at winning. BC has the most NDP members out of any province, and Saskatchewan (despite having no NDP MPs) has the highest NDP memberships per capita out of any province.

Polling also suggests that Ontario MPs Peggy Nash and Paul Dewar will be strong contenders for the leadership. Neither have as many endorsements as Topp or Mulcair, however (Dewar has no MPs behind him, yet).  Nash has a smattering of support here and there. She has a few Quebec endorsements, and has secured every endorsement in her own riding (the local MPP and both city councillors), but nothing else in Ontario. She may do well in Atlantic Canada, thanks to key endorsements from former NDP leader Alex McDonough and Newfoundland and Labrador NDP leader Lorraine Michael. Atlantic Canada will be up for grabs now that former Nova Scotia MP Robert Chisholm has dropped out. While Dewar has no MPs endorse him yet, he has the support of many provincial legislators, mostly in Manitoba. He is doing a lot better there than in his home province, thanks to family connections in the province.

Also picking up quite a few endorsements is Manitoba MP Niki Ashton. She isn't considered a favourite for the race, but she will certainly be challenging Dewar for NDP votes in Manitoba where her father is a cabinet minister. She has also secured the endorsement of three Quebec MPs.

Challenging Topp's endorsement lead in BC is BC MP Nathan Cullen. While no MP has endorsed him, he has secured endorsements of a few provincial legislators. However, Cullen has no endorsements outside the province. Also with localized support is Quebec MP Romeo Saganash. He has the endorsement of two other Quebec MPs, including one from a neighbouring riding of his.

And last but least is Nova Scotia businessman Martin Singh. He has yet to receive any endorsements, but he is running a spirited campaign so far. I have heard that the is the only candidate to have opened campaign offices so far. One in Delta, BC and one in Malton, ON, close to large South Asian communities. (Singh is actually not South Asian, but a white Sikh convert). All the South Asian MLAs in BC seem to have endorsed Topp however, but one Sikh NDP provincial legislator (Jagmeet Singh, who represents Malton) hasn't made an endorsement yet. Also up for grabs for Sikh is a whole lot of Nova Scotia NDP MLAs.

Saskatchewan 2011 election results analysis

Results by riding.

 

Saskatchewan went to the polls last month, and voted overwhelmingly for the right wing incumbent Saskatchewan Party. The race wasn't even close, the SP won win the 2^nd highest popular vote percentage in Canadian history. Only Danny Williams' landslide in Newfoundland in 2007 saw a party win a higher percentage of the votes.

The Saskatchewan Party, led by Premier Brad Wall won 64% of the vote in the November 7^th race. The opposing New Democrats won just 32% of the vote, the lowest since the party was the CCF in 1938- the election before Tommy Douglas' famous win in 1944. The race however was not the biggest landslide in provincial history. The NDP was efficient enough to win 9 of the 58 seats in the Saskatchewan Legislative Assembly. They won the same number in 1982, but their opposition then, the Progressive Conservative Party won 55 seats in a larger legislature. The Saskatchewan Party won 49 seats in this year's race. In 1982, the PCs won 54% of the vote compared to the NDP's 38%.

Party	Leader	Seats	Votes	%
Saskatchewan Party	Brad Wall	49	254997	64.2
N.D.P.	Dwain Lingenfelter	9	127064	32
Green	Victor Lau	0	11461	2.9
Liberal	Ryan Bater	0	2200	0.6
Prog. Cons.	Rick Swenson	0	1298	0.3
Western Independence	Dana Arnason	0	63	0
Independents	-	0	44	0

The province has undergone a large polarization since 1982, which saw the two major cities (Saskatoon and Regina) along with the far north support the New Democrats, while the rural parts of the province support the Saskatchewan Party. In 1982, the NDP still won some rural seats, and were actually shut out in Saskatoon. Flash ahead to 2011 where the NDP won no rural seats, save for the two far northern seats. Meanwhile, they won four in Saskatoon and three in Regina. This polarization ensured that the NDP won as many seats as they did in 1982 with less of the popular vote.

The Sask Party had already won a large majority in the previous 2007 election, where they had won 38 seats to the NDP's 20. They gained a total of 11 seats, three in medium sized cities (The Battlefords, Moose Jaw and Prince Albert), three in Saskatoon, and five in Regina, previously an NDP stronghold. Following the election, NDP leader Dwain Lingenfelter, who lost his own Regina seat resigned as leader.

The election was the nail in the coffin for the once dominant Liberal Party. The ran just 9 candidates, and won less than 1% of the total vote. The finished 4^th in the popular vote, as the Green Party had their best election even, winning just under 3% of the vote.

The last couple of polls before the election were somehwhat accurate. Forum Research's last poll was off by 2% for both the Sask Party and the NDP while Praxis was off by a bit more, as they understated the NDP's performance, giving them just 26%, while they overstated the Sask Party, giving them 67%.

Where I went wrong with my predictions...

All in all, Saskatchewan was my best prediction of the year, as I just got 3 ridings wrong, in other words, 95% accuracy. I have found that 2 way races are easier to predict than multi partisan races, but I did find predicting the Saskatchewan election tricky, due to the fact that the province has never seen such huge numbers for any particular party. I said the NDP would win six seats, but they won nine. The NDP did not win a single seat where I predicted the Sask Party would win.

Regina Lakeview

Highly illusive regional polls suggested bad things for the NDP in Regina, so I went a bit overboard to predict this “safe” NDP seat as going to the Saskatchewan Party. After all, it was the federal party's best Regina riding in May. The race was close however, NDP incumbent John Nilson won by just 145 votes. I said the Sask Party would win by 12%. This did not come true, and I was off by an average of about 5% for each party.

Regina Rosemont

This race wasn't even close. The NDP held on to this riding by over 900 votes. This seat was won by the federal NDP in May, but not by that much, so I thought the Sask Party would be able to pick this one up. The NDP actually increased their vote share here (so did the Sask Party, though). What happened was a relatively strong Liberal performance in 2007 (9%) disappeared in 2011 due to the lack of a candidate. Some of this went to the NDP, and ensured an increase in their support- a rare occurrence on election night for the party. Due to this huge discrepancy, I was off an average of 10% per party here.

Saskatoon Massey Place

Polls showed that the NDP wouldn't get as trounced in Saskatoon as badly as in Regina, but even still I predicted this riding would fall for the Saskatchewan Party. The NDP ended up winning this seat by nearly 800 votes, only decreasing their vote slightly from 2007. I figured the Sask Party would win by 7%, but the NDP carried this seat by 11%. I was off an average of 6% per party here. 

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% Change Maps 

Saskatchewan Party % change (2007-2011)

 Saskatchewan Party change

It was a big election for the Sask Party, as they made gains in all but one riding. Much of their biggest gains in votes came in the Saskatoon and Regina areas. These were most of the NDP seats were, and therefore the target of the campaign for the Sask Party. The party was also able to capitalize on the collapse of the Liberal vote which was "strong"-ish in 2007 in these cities. The Sask Party made only smaller gains in much of the rural parts of the province, because they had tapped into most of their support there already. It's difficult to gain when you already won 70% of the vote last time. The biggest gain for the Sask Party came in Regina Walsh Acres. A riding they won in 2011, but didn't even field a candidate in 2007. The only riding the Sask Party lost ground in was Cannington. This seat is one of the strongest for the Sask Party- the got 77% there in 2007. It was hard to make gains on those numbers I suppose, but the real reason for the decrease was the better than expected showing of the Progressive Conservative Party candidate, which tapped into Sask Party support and won 7% of the vote. The Tories aren't a real force any more in Saskatchewan politics, as the Sask Party has filled in their role on the right, but they still run a handful of candidates to remain registered.

  NDP change 

The NDP map is mostly red, signifying a loss of votes in most ridings. They were actually able to make gains in small handful of seats, thanks in some part to 2007 Liberal voters not having that choice again. The NDP's biggest increase came in Saskatoon Meewasin, a riding they actually had, but lost to the Saskatchewan Party. The Liberals ran their leader in this riding in 2007, and did very well, despite finishing third. That vote collapsed, and both the NDP and the Sask Party gained from that. However, the Sask Party gained a lot more, enough to win the riding from the NDP. The riding where the NDP lost the most votes was Regina Wascana Plains, where the Sask Party didn't run a candidate in 2007. Much of Regina was bad news for the NDP, where they lost a lot of support, except for three ridings that stood out in bucking the trend in the rest of the city. 

Yukon election, 2011 results analysis

Back in October, on the same day Newfoundland went to the polls, Canada's smallest territory, the Yukon went to the polls. The Yukon is the only one of Canada's three northern territories to elect a partisan legislature. The Yukon's party system is much like your average system in the provinces. There is the NDP, and the Liberals, and the right wing party- the Yukon Party (formerly the Conservatives).

Going into the October 11th race, the Yukon Party held a majority of the seats in the legislature. The party had won 10 seats in the last election, held in 2006 out of 18. The Liberals won 5, and the NDP 3. For the 2011 election, the legislature would be gaining an extra seat, while the territory's riding boundaries had been redrawn.

There were few polls going into the election, given how small the territory is. The final poll released before the election showed the Yukon Party and the NDP tied at 35%, with the Liberals not far behind at 26%. Of course I remember how bad the polls were from the 2006 election, and I knew to expect anything on election night.

The Yukon Party led throughout the night, and ended up winning a majority of the seats, gaining one from the last election to win 11. The NDP did a lot better than in 2006, forming the official opposition for the first time since 2002, winning 6 seats. The Liberals won just two seats. With the victory, the Yukon Party became the first party in territorial history to win three straight elections. The Yukon Party won 41% of the vote- the same percentage that they got in 2006. The NDP won 33%- up 9% from 2006 while the Liberals won 25%, down 9%.

Party	Leader	Seats	Votes	%
Yukon Party	Darrell Pasloski	11	6400	40.5
N.D.P.	Elizabeth Hanson	6	5154	32.6
Liberal	Arthur Mitchell	2	3979	25.2
Green	Kristina Calhoun	0	104	0.7
Yukon First Nations	Gerald Dickson, Sr.	0	81	0.5
Independents	-	0	79	0.5

Electoral geography
The Yukon Party has been able to build its majorities on winning a majority of seats in both rural Yukon and in the territory's only major urban centre, Whitehorse. In 2006 they won 5 of the 9 rural ridings, and won 5 of the 9 urban ridings. In 2011, rural Yukon lost a seat, and so did the Yukon Party. They still won 4 of the 8 seats, while the NDP and the Liberals each won 2. The Yukon Party dominated Whitehorse, which gained 2 seats for this election. The Yukon Party won 7 of the city's 11 seats, and the NDP doubled their seat total in the city to 4. The Liberals meanwhile were shutout of the city, including their leader's seat.

The Yukon Party was shutout of the northern part of the territory, where the Liberals won their only 2 seats. The did better in the south, where they won all but one of the rural seats. One of the Liberal seats in the north was actually a gain, in Klondike where they defeated the YP incumbent. This means the Liberals were only able to hold on to one seat in the territory that they previously won. This was in the sparsely populated riding of Vuntut Gwitchin, where their candidate was able to win with just 93 votes. Winning the Klondike was a big victory though, as they have never won the seat, which includes Dawson City. The NDP picked up one seat in the rural Yukon, gaining the riding of Mayo-Tatchun from the Liberal candidate, who was a former NDPer himself.

The Liberals lost both their seats they held in Whitehorse. Their leader's seat of Copperbelt was divided in two ridings. Their leader chose to run in Copperbelt North, but was defeated by the Yukon Party candidate by 113 votes. Meanwhile, the NDP gained the seat of Copperbelt South. The Liberals also lost the seat of Porter Creek South. Their incumbent lost to the Yukon Party by just 14 votes. The NDP gained two seats from their mark set in 2006 in the city. They held on to their leader's seat of Whitehorse Centre, as well as the seat of Takhini-Kopper King. The NDP won Takhini-Kopper King in 2006, but their candidate crossed the floor to join the Yukon Party, only to be defeated by his former party in 2011. In addition to those two seats, the NDP also gained Riverdale South from the YP and the aforementioned Copperbelt South from the Liberals. Meanwhile, the Yukon Party did quite well in the city by gaining some of the new seats there. The city was also home to their best riding, Whitehorse West where their candidate won 58% of the vote.

The 2011 race in the Yukon gave us some big surprises compared to their boring election of 2006. Almost every incumbent was re-elected in 2006, even after many had switched parties since the previous election. 2011 saw many incumbents go down into defeat. So much for the notion that northerners always vote for the candidate, not the party.  That didn't seem to happen this election.

Bonaventure provincial by-election analysis and preview

Poll by poll map of Bonaventure, 2008 provincial election
Click to enlarge. Credit: MaxQue from the US Elections Atlas Forum.

There will by a provincial by-election in the riding of Bonaventure, Quebec on Monday. With the major shifts in the Quebec political landscape lately, the race could prove to be an important bellwether for the province- or not.

Bonaventure is located in Quebec's Gaspesie peninsula. It is, by most measures a safe Liberal (PLQ) riding in Quebec's National Assembly. The area, which bounds New Brunswick, is somewhat federalist. A slight majority of voters voted against separation in the 1995 independence referendum. The Liberals have held the seat for most of its history. Since 1956, it only voted for the separatist Parti Quebecois twice- both times in 1994, the year before the referendum where there was both a by-election and a general election.

The seat has been held by Nathalie Normandeau, a Liberal since she won it back for the Liberals in 1998 in a close race. Since then, she faced little opposition, winning each of her elections by large margins. She won 64% of the vote in the 2008 general election, nearly 6000 votes more than the PQ candidate. She resigned her seat in the National Assembly in September citing personal reasons.

Location of Bonaventure

One of the reasons the riding is as pro-Liberal as it is, is its somewhat high Anglo population. 15% of residents are Anglophones, which is a high number for that part of the province. The riding can be found on the north coast of Chaleur Bay in Eastern Quebec. It extends from the community of Gascons in the east to L'Ascension-de-Patapedia in the west.

In 2008, the Liberals swept nearly every corner of this riding. Only one corner of the riding voted for the PQ, really. The community of Gascons in the east of the riding had all three of its polls voting for them. The PQ won only two other polls in the entire riding. One was in Saint-Omer and the other in Paspebiac. The Liberals on the other hand won all of the remaining polls. They had their highest concentrations in the region between the towns of New Richmond and New Carlsile.

MNAs:

1) Clarence Hamilton (PLQ), 1867-1871

2) Theodore Robitaille (Cons.), 1871-1874

3) P.-C. Beauchesne (Cons.), 1874-1876

4) J. I. Tarte (Cons.), 1877-1881

5) L.-J. Riopel (Cons.), 1881-1882

6) H.-J. Martin (Cons.), 1882-1890

7) Honore Mercier (PLQ), 1890-1894

8) F.-X. Lemieux (PLQ), 1894-1897

9) W. H. Clapperton (PLQ), 1897-1904

10) J. H. Kelly (PLQ), 1904-1914

11) J.-F. Bugeaud (PLQ), 1914-1924

12) P.-E. Cote (PLQ), 1924-1936
13) Henri Jolicoeur (UN), 1936-1939
14) P.-E. Cote (PLQ), 1939-1944, 2^nd time
15) Henri Jolicoeur (UN), 1944-1956, 2^nd time
16) G. D. Levesque (PLQ), 1956-1994
17) Marcel Landry (PQ), 1994-1998
18) Ms. Nathalie Normandeau (PLQ), 1998-2011

Map of the riding. Source: Le Directeur general des elections du Quebec

Federal history 
 The provincial riding of Bonaventure can be found wholly in the federal riding of Gaspesie—Iles-de-la-Madeleine. That riding is held by the NDP's Daniel Toone. His narrow victory came much to the thanks of this part of the federal riding. Bonaventure was the most pro-NDP part of Gaspesie—Iles-de-la-Madeleine. The NDP dominated the region, except for the area east of New Carlisle, which was divided amongst the other three parties. The BQ won the town of Gascons (where the PQ did well), the Tories won the heavily Anglo towns of New Carlisle and Hope, while the Liberals won Port-Daniel. The NDP won most of the rest of the area, winning all but a couple of polls west of New Carlisle. Their strongest poll was the Indian reserve of Listuguj where they won 81% of the votes.

List of MPs from the area:

1) Theodore Robitaille (Cons), 1867-1879

2) P.-C. Beauchesne (Cons), 1879-1882
3) L.-J. Riopel (Cons), 1882-1891
4) W. L. Fauvel (Lib), 1891-1897
5) J.-F. Guite (Lib), 1897-1900
6) Chas. Marcil (Lib), 1900-1937
7) P.-E. Cote (Lib), 1937-1940
8) J. A. Poirier (Lib), 1940-1945
9) Bona Arsenault (Ind), 1945-1949; (Lib), 1949-1957
10) Neree Arsenault (PC), 1957-1958
11) Lucien Grenier (PC), 1958-1962
12) Albert Bechard (Lib), 1962-1979
13) J. R. R. Bujold (Lib), 1979-1984
14) D. L. Gray (PC), 1984-1993
15) P. C. Gagnon (Lib), 1993-1997
16) Yvan Bernier (BQ), 1997-2000
17) Georges Farrah (Lib), 2000-2004

18) Raynald Blais (BQ), 2004-2011
19) Philip Toone (NDP), 2011-present

By-election Preview

The four main candidates

The Liberals have nominated Damien Arsenault to be their candidate. He is the mayor of St-Elzear, in the riding's eastern end. Riding polls have suggested that he is the safe bet to continue the Liberal dominance in the riding. A recent Segma poll suggests he would win 49% of the vote. This is down quite a bit since 2008. However, considering some recent polls have the Liberals down 20 points province wide from their 2008 mark, it's not that bad. And he still leads the other parties considerably. His closest challenger will be the PQ's candidate, Sylvain Roy. He was at 35% in that Segma poll. That would be up from the 29% the PQ got here in 2008. This mark would be great news for the beleaguered Pequistes, who are 15% lower in the polls these days than they received in the 2008 election. The left wing Quebec Solidaire candidate, Patricia Chartier was in a distant third in the poll at 9%. She is an aid to the area's MP, Philip Toone. She ran for the QS in 2008, getting just 3% of the vote. The right wing ADQ is running Georges Painchaud, a former Liberal candidate was at 4% in the poll, and the Green candidate, Jean Cloutier received 3%.

With the PQ tanking in the polls recently, any improvement on 2008 has to be a big win for their leader Pauline Marois. She has seen a slew of defections over the last few months, and with the collapse of the federal BQ back in May, is being threatened by the separatists movement going into long hibernation. Getting a good result for QS will be a big boost for a party that hopes to emulate the breakthrough that the NDP got in May. Keeping on the electoral radar would be a win for the ADQ, which is at this point in merger discussions with the brand new Coalition pour l'avenir du Quebec (CAQ). The CAQ, led by popular former Pequiste Francois Legault has been leading all the province-wide polls as of late. They are however, not running a candidate in this by-election. Maybe for the best, as that Segma poll also asked if voters would vote for a CAQ candidate in this by-election. Only 15% said they would.

So, what to expect Monday night? A Liberal win, of course. But the question remains, what will the fallout be, if any?

Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election, 2011 - Results and analysis

Results by riding

Newfoundlanders and Labradorians went to the polls last month to elect their 47^th House of Assembly. The race would be a foregone conclusion from the offset, but despite that where the chips were to lie was harder to predict.

Going into the election, the Tories had a large lead in the polls, so it was obvious they were headed towards a majority government. However, the real question was who was going to form the Official Opposition. The NDP consistently polled in 2^nd place, but having never formed the Official Opposition before, and only being strong in a small number of ridings, it was hard to predict whether they would be able to translate this support into seats. And the Liberals, traditionally the governing party in the province were polling in third place. Would they be able to hold on to their seats to form the Official Opposition?

When the ballots were counted, the Tories, under leader Kathy Dunderdale did indeed win a majority government. She became the first woman leader to win an election in the province's history. The party won 56% of the vote, winning 37 of the province's 48 seats. While rare in Canadian elections, this majority of votes the Tories won in was actually a large decrease from the 69% (a record in Canada) the party won under Premier Danny Williams 4 years before. While the NDP won the 2^nd most amount of votes (25%), they were not able to concentrate their support in enough seats to form the Official Opposition. They did win an historic 5 seats, but the Liberals were more efficient with their votes, getting the remaining 6 seats with just 19% of the vote. The Liberals actually doubled their seat totals from 2007, despite winning less votes province-wide.

Party	Leader	Seats	Votes	%
Progressive Conservative	Kathy Dunderdale	37	124523	56.1
Liberal	Kevin Aylward	6	42411	19.1
N.D.P.	Lorraine Michael	5	54713	24.6
Independents	-	0	430	0.2

In the end, the polls were semi-accurate. The final three polls released before the election showed the Tories in the mid to high 50s, which is what they got. They did overestimate the NDP substantially however. Two polls had them winning 33%. Corporate Research was right on money though, giving the New Democrats 25%. Meanwhile, the Liberals did much better than the polls suggested. Polls pegged them in the mid-teens, but they ended up at 19%. Perhaps at the last minute, voters switched from the NDP to the Liberals?

The election showed an obvious east-west divide in the province- at least when it comes to which opposition party is favoured. The east liked the NDP second best, and is where 3 of the party's new 4 seats came from (all in St. John's actually). Four of the party's 5 seats were won in the St. John's area. The Liberals however were 2^nd best in the west, where they picked up 2 new seats. Four of their six seats were won on the west coast of the province, and the other 2 were won in Labrador, an area with less voters per seat. While the Liberals did better than expected, their leader, Kevin Aylard did lose the seat he was running in.

Where I went wrong

Due to the fact that the NDP was in uncharted territory in this election, because it had never received even close to a quarter of the votes before, this election was hard to predict. Also throw in the fact the Liberals did better than expected. I'm glad I did do some reading up on the election though, to see where the NDP's best chances were, as it helped my final prediction. I did get 8 seats wrong, meaning my accuracy was only 83%. This was my worst prediction of all the provincial elections this Fall. Here are the seats that I got wrong:

Bay of Islands

2011 was a rematch in this riding from the previous election. Former MHA Eddie Joyce of the Liberals was once again up against incumbent Terry Loder of the Tories. Only 400 votes separated them in the last election. Joyce represented this seat for 9 years before being defeated by Loder in 2007. I figured with the Liberals down, they would lose this seat again, but the Liberals won the riding back by over 700 votes. Bay of Islands is just one example of the Liberals bouncing back on the west coast of the rock. I was off an average of 11% per party with my prediction in this riding.

Burin-Placentia West

This riding may not be traditional NDP territory, but the NDP's candidate Julie Mitchell did very well here in the 2007 election, where she won a third of the vote. It was expected to be another close race, as she faced Fisheries Minister Clyde Jackman once again. In the end, Jackman was able to hold on to his seat, defeating Mitchell by just 40 votes. I predicted a very close race here, and I was at least right on that (I had Mitchell winning by 1%). Despite not calling the right winner here, I was so close with my numbers, that I was off of an average of less than 1% per party.

Humber Valley

Another west coast rematch I got wrong was in Humber Valley. Tory MHA Darryl Kelly was running against former Liberal MHA Dwight Ball whom he defeated in 2007. In fact, this was the third meeting between these two candidates, as Ball had beaten Kelly a few months earlier in a by-election. The race in 2007 was close, with Kelly winning by just 300 votes. I was expecting another close race, but with Kelly winning again with the same margin. The race was indeed close, but it was Ball who won- by just 68 votes. I was close with my numbers, being off by an average of just 2% per party.

Labrador West

Historically, the NDP's second best riding in the province has been in Labrador West. So, with the party being at an historic high, it only made sense that the NDP would win this seat, right? Wrong. Despite doing well in this part of Labrador federally, the provincial party selected a weak candidate in this riding to go against Labrador City councillor Nick McGrath. I figured this was a sure bet for the NDP, due to its high polling, history in this riding and the fact that it was an open seat. I was so sure they'd win, that I gave the NDP candidate a 29% lead. Oops. This was a huge blunder on my part. I was off by an average of over 20% per party here! (including off by 30% for the NDP).

St. Barbe

St. Barbe featured another rematch of 2007. This time however, the Liberal candidate, Jim Bennett, was not a former MHA, weakening his chances of picking off the Tory incumbent. That incumbent was Tory MHA Wallace Young who has represented this seat for ten years. He defeated Bennett easily in 2007. However St. Barbe is a traditional Liberal seat, having only elected Tories for a total of 7 (or 15, depending on what part of the riding you're in) years since confederation before Young's 2001 victory. The race was another squeaker, Bennett would win by just 38 votes. I predicted Young to win by 9 points. I was off by an average of 5% per party.

St. John's East

The St. John's area is a loyal area for the Tories, but the NDP made a breakthrough in 2011. While I got two neighbouring ridings correct in predicting NDP pickups, I was not so keen on this seat. St. John's East has elected Tories for all but 10 years since confederation. Tory incumbent Ed Buckingham received 70% of the vote in 2007. Was it so far fetched to say he'd win it again? In the end however, it wasn't that particularly close. The NDP candidate, George Murphy won by nearly 600 votes. I did predict the NDP to do well here of course, predicting they would lose by 4%. They won however by 11%. I would be off by an average of 5% per party here.

The Straits – White Bay North

Perhaps the biggest surprise on election night was here, on the northern tip of Newfoundland. In area that has been trending Liberal in surrounding ridings chose a different opposition party to represent it in St. John's. The NDP, which has no history here ran a strong candidate in businessman Chris Mitchelmore who won the seat in a close 3-way race by 210 votes, edging out the incumbent MHA, Marhsall Dean of the Liberals. This was a big surprise, especially considering the two neighbouring ridings switched from the Tories to the Liberals, yet this Liberal incumbent wasn't able to hold on? What makes it more surprising is that the Liberals have held this seat for all but 8 years since confederation. I don't remember reading about the NDP prospects in this riding, so I ended up predicting a Liberal victory, with the NDP in third. My near correct prediction for the Tory vote here saved me, and I was only off by an average of 5-6% per party here.

Torngat Mountains

Finally, we go to the most northerly riding in the province in the Torngat Mountains. This Innu-dominated riding votes more for the candidate I assume, then party. After all, it was this part of Labrador that helped the federal Conservatives win the region with Innu leader Peter Penashue. Would it not make sense then to suggest the provincial Tories would also win this riding, especially because they were the incumbent party? Well, no. Tory MHA Patty Pottle, who won this seat by just 76 votes in 2007 went down in defeat to the Liberal candidate, Randy Edmunds. She lost by over 10% of the vote, or 150 votes in this sparsely populated riding. I was off by an average of 8% per party. 

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Change maps (2007-2011)

PC vote change (2007-2011)

Tory change

With the loss in support for the Progressive Conservatives in Newfoundland, we see a mostly red map. These are the seats where the party lost votes. Most striking are the St. John's area ridings where they lost a lot of votes to the NDP. There were a handful of seats the Tories were able to increase their support in interestingly. The most notable was in the Isles of Notre Dame, where the Tories saw a gain of 17% between the two elections. I suppose voters didn't take well to the Liberal candidate being a carpetbagging former MHA from Labrador. The Tories also increased their support in the impoverished southern coast of the province, and in Labrador West, again due to a carpetbagging- this time NDP candidate.

Liberal vote change (2007-2011)

Liberal change

The Liberal vote change map is more of a mixed bag of green and red. The Liberal vote did go down in 2011, but their seat total was doubled. This is evident in the map. As you can see, their vote totals went down in almost every St. John's area seat, but their votes went up in the western part of the province. These western seats were marginal in 2007, and therefore these gains allowed the Liberals to pick up their new seats. The seat the Liberals lost the most support in was the Isles of Notre Dame (carpetbagging candidate). Their seat where they increased the most was in Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans where their 2007 candidate received just 4% of the vote. 

NDP vote change (2007-2011)

NDP change

The NDP saw their best election in provincial history in 2011, so it makes sense that their change map would be mostly green- for gains. In fact, the NDP lost support in just two ridings- in Labrador West where they ran an out of town candidate, and in Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans where they were not able to replicate a good result from 2007. There is lots of green on this map, the darkest shades coming from the St. John's area where the party picked up three seats off of massive swings from the Tories. Another large swing came in the riding of The Straits-White Bay North, another pick up for the party. 

British Columbia municipal elections: preview

Saturday, voters in BC will get to go to the polls to elect their local councils. Voters in BC's 160 municipalities will get to vote for mayor and council, while rural British Columbians will be able to vote for their "Electoral Area Director", a seat on their local regional district council. There's also referenda, and "down ballot" races, typical of municipal elections. There are school trustee races, and park boards for example.

The most notable race in BC of course will be for mayor of Vancouver. What I like about Vancouver- and a few other municipalities in the province- is that their races are partisan. There are municipal parties in the city. Vancouver has two main parties, the governing left of centre "Vision Vancouver", led by mayor Gregor Robertson. In opposition is the right of centre "Non Partisan Association" (NPA). They are running councillor Suzanne Anton against him. There are also ten other candidates running for the position.

On council, there is a third party, the "Coalition of Progressive Electors" (COPE), which has an electoral alliance with Vision Vancouver. They are to the left of VV, and are running three candidates for council, while VV is running 7. COPE currently holds 2 council seats. The NPA meanwhile is running a full slate of 10 candidates. It should be noted that Vancouver City Council is elected on an at-large basis. There are no municipal wards in the city. In fact, it is the largest city in Canada with no ward system. Voters get a long list of candidates of which they get to vote for up to 10. When you get partisan races with this system, even the closest of elections results in lopsided results. The NPA for example, holds just 1 seat on Vancouver City Council, despite its mayoral candidate getting nearly 40% of the vote in the last election in 2008.


Out here in Ottawa, the biggest news I've heard about the campaign in Vancouver is how the city shut down the Occupy Vancouver protest. The question is, how will this effect the mayoral campaign of a left wing mayor? Will it alienate his base? We will find out on Saturday. Polls so far have suggested that while Robertson has handled the Occupy protests poorly, he still holds on to the lead. The most recent polls that I could find suggests he is leading 49-43 (and it was an NPA internal poll).

Robertson won  54% of support among Vancouver voters. His main opponent, Peter Ladner of the NPA received 39%. On city council, COPE ran 2 candidates while Vision Vancouver ran 8 candidates as part of their pact. Both COPE candidates were elected. The last place candidate for Vision Vancouver was the only candidate to lose. The only NPA candidate to win a seat was Suzanne Anton, who is their candidate for mayor this year. Her personal popularity allowed her to win more votes than 2 Vision candidates and one COPE candidate. The next highest NPA candidate was just 1500 votes shy of eclipsing the 10th place candidate, represented by the COPE. 

2008 mayoral election by poll

2008 council election by poll (leading candidate)

In 2008, as you can see by the maps, if Vancouver was divided by ward, it is likely the split on council would be more like 6-4 for the Vision Vancouver-COPE alliance. After all, the city is represented by 10 MLAs in the provincial legislature, and there is presently an even split in the city between the NDP (5 seats) and the BC Liberals (5 seats). If those 10 ridings were used as municipal wards, there would be a similar close race in the city. Not the 9-1 landslide that happened in actual fact. Of course this archaic system is enjoyed by the voters however, as they voted to keep the system in a referendum in 2004. It was however close (54-46 against introducing municipal wards), and it was in an off year for elections and was therefore marred by low voter turnout.

From the maps, it is evident that support for Vision Vancouver is concentrated in the east end of the city, which tends to be more working class. The party also has support from some of the "champagne socialists" living in the condos of downtown, but some of these downtown dwellers support the NPA. The NPA strongholds are in the more affluent west end of the city. The true battlegrounds are in the central part of the city and in the south end. These are the battlegrounds in provincial elections as well, between the NDP and the BC Liberals. 

Most, if not all municipalities in BC use an at large voting system to elect their councils. Only a few have municipal parties however. In British Columbia's second largest city of Surrey, the right of centre "Surrey First" party, led by mayor Dianne Watts presently holds 7 of 8 council seats. The opposition party, the Surrey Civic Coallition (SCC) holds just one seat. They will not be running a challenger against Watts, but they will run a full slate of candidates for council. The SCC did not run a candidate against Watts in 2008 either.

In BC's third largest city of Burnaby, the left of centre "Burnaby Citizens Association" (BCA) hold all 8 council seats, plus the mayor of the city, Derek Corrigan. They are being opposed by the right of centre TEAM Burnaby, who is running Tom Tao for mayor. They will be running a full slate of candidates to oppose Corrigan's BCA. Corrigan received 67% of the vote in 2008, which helped his party win all 8 seats on council. TEAM Burnaby's top candidate received 2000 less votes than the 8th place BCA candidate, shutting them out.

Most of the other municipalities in BC do not have political parties. The few that do tend to have just one political party, either one representing the governing party, or one representing an opposition party against a band of independents. 

A lack of municipal wards in BC means a lack of maps, unfortunately. From the 2008 election, I was only able to find a poll map of Vancouver, which I used in this post. I will however have a map of all of BC's municipalities showing the mayoral results, much like I used for NWT's non partisan legislative election in October.

Ontario 2011 election results - analysis

Results map of the 2011 Ontario election by riding. 

Ontarians went to the poll last month, and now I've finally been able to post my official post-election analysis. Ontarians elected their first minority government in 26 years, with the Liberal Party winning a plurality of seats at 53, one shy of a majority. The Tories will remain the official opposition, increasing their seat count to 37, and the N.D.P. also increased their seat count, to 17.

Party	Leader	Seats	Votes	%
Liberal	Dalton McGuinty	53	1622426	37.6
Progressive Conservative	Tim Hudak	37	1527959	35.4
N.D.P.	Andrea Horwath	17	980204	22.7
Green	Mike Schreiner	0	126567	2.9
Libertarian	Sam Apelbaum	0	19387	0.4
Family Coalition	Phil Lees	0	9861	0.2
Freedom	Paul McKeever	0	9285	0.2
Communist	Elizabeth Rowley	0	1163	0
Northern Ontario Heritage	Edward Deibel	0	683	0
Special Needs	Danish Ahmed	0	667	0
Reform	Bradley J. Harness	0	645	0
Confederation of Regions	-	0	559	0
Paramount Canadians	Ranvir Dogra	0	548	0
People's Political Party	Kevin Clarke	0	386	0
Socialist	Andy Lehrer	0	369	0
Vegan Environmental	Paul Figueiras	0	366	0
Republican	Trueman Tuck	0	232	0
The Only Party	Michael Green	0	188	0
Human Rights	Marilyn McCormick	0	170	0
Canadians' Choice	Bahman Yazdanfar	0	156	0
Pauper Party	John C. Turmel	0	140	0

The Liberals lost 18 seats that they had won in 2007. The Tories picked up 11 of these, and the NDP picked up 7. The Liberals went down 4.6% in the popular vote. Both the Tories and the N.D.P. gained, 3.8% and 6.0% respectively. It was the NDP's best election since forming government in 1990. The Greens meanwhile lost much of their support, and were down 5.1% from from their best result in 2007.

Much of the Liberal loss came from rural Ontario, which swung heavily to the Tories. They were able to hold onto their urban seats though, something the federal Liberals had trouble doing in May.

The polls for the most part were fairly accurate. Forum Research was almost right on the money, giving the Liberals 37%, the Tories 36%, the NDP with 23% and the Greens at 3%. All the other pollsters were within the margin of error.

Where I went wrong

Overall, I did quite well with the results in Ontario. I did overestimate the Tories and underestimate the Liberals, however. I posted my predictions before some of the final polls came out, and that can be blamed for that. However, other predictors went the other way, and predicted the Liberals would get a majority. I was certainly benefited from receiving the riding by riding results of Forum Research's mega survey done during the campaign, which I may have relied on too heavily, but wasn't too far off the mark in some races. Overall I just got 9 ridings wrong, or just 8% of the seats. From browsing other predictor websites, it was tied for the most accurate prediction (with electionpredictions.org).

Brant

Brant was one of those races that if I took into some of the final polls to be released into consideration, I may have flipped. The Liberals held on to this seat by 1000 votes. While much of the riding is rural, its main centre of Brantford kept the riding from being swept up in the Tories' rural sweep of the province. Perhaps, I was a little too focused on the fact that the Forum Research poll said the Tories would win here. I predicted the Tories would win by 5 points, but the Liberals won by 2. Overall, I was off by an average of 2-3% for each of the major parties.

Essex

Essex was the riding that surprised everyone on election night. The seat was vacated by the retirement of Liberal Bruce Crozier. This meant that this seat was up for grabs. The conventional wisdom thought that because this seat is held by the federal Tories, that their provincial counterparts would win as well. But that was not the case. The N.D.P.'s Tarys Natyshak won in the surprise of the night. I did predict the NDP to do well in Essex, I had them losing the seat by 5%. They won in a close race by just 1400 votes, or 3% ahead of the Tories. Overall, I was off by an average of about 3% per party.

Glengarry—Prescott—Russell

All the signs seemed to point to this rural Francophone Eastern Ontario riding going Tory this election. The Liberals were late in nominating their candidate, and what's worse was they nominated an Anglophone. The federal Conservatives have also held this seat since 2006. I do recall in the Summer predicting this seat going Liberal, but I got an email from someone saying I was dead wrong. I did my homework, and decided I was. The Forum Research poll seemed to agree with me as well. It was a close race though, the Liberals won the seat by 1300 votes. I was off by an average of 3% per major party, but I was really wrong with the Liberal and Tory votes, as I had the Tories winning by 14%!

Kenora—Rainy River

Until now, it seemed to me that no matter how much the NDP improves on its past performances, they always lose a seat or two in the process (e.g. They lost two seats in the federal election). However, that did not happen in this provincial election, even though I was sure it would happen here in Kenora. Firstly, the seat was vacated by former NDP leader Howard Hampton, meaning it was up for grabs. Secondly, the federal NDP has been having trouble in this seat, one of their few hold outs in the region. The seat is held by the Conservatives in Ottawa. That, and the fact that Forum Research agreed that the Tories would win, meant that I was pretty certain the Tories would win here. The NDP did win the seat pretty handily, by 2600 votes and nearly 50% of the vote. I was off by an average of over 5% per party here. That includes a 13% discrepancy for the NDP, which I had losing 44-37.

Ottawa West—Nepean

This is another seat I probably would have flipped had I seen the final polls. It was still a very close race, with the Liberals edging out the Tories by just 1000 votes. It was closer than the by-election held the year prior that made me believe the Tories had a shot here. And of course, Forum Research predicted a Tory victory! (starting to see a trend here?) To my credit, I did have the Tories only winning by 2%- the margin the Liberals won by. I was very close to the actual results, being an average of less than 2% per party.

Perth—Wellington

I thought if the Liberals were to keep one rural seat, it would be this one. After all- you guessed it- Forum Research had them winning it. While I knew the Tories would win most of the rural Liberal seats across the province, I knew it was possible that there may be one or two hold outs due to personal popularity. I thought Liberal MPP John Wilkinson would fit the bill (and I wasn't the only one to think this). To my credit again, it was a close race. The Tories won by just 600 votes. However, that darned Forum Research poll screwed me when it came to my numbers, as I only gave the Tories 27% in the riding. I was off by an average of over 5% per major party, including 14% off of what the Tories got.

Sudbury

Forum Research did I think three riding polls of Sudbury. The final two (at least) showed a close race between the NDP and the Liberals, but both showed the NDP on top. This seemed quite fathomable, as the NDP won a surprise victory here in the 2008 federal election against a popular Liberal incumbent. I had figured a similar scenario was about to occur in this election. The final result did show that the polls were correct in predicting a close race. The Liberals won by just 500 votes. My prediction showed an even closer race, with both parties at 39%. The Liberals got 42, and the NDP got 41%. I was off by an average of less than 2% for each major party.

Thunder Bay—Atikokan

Thunder Bay—Atikokan also had some riding polls that showed the NDP with a narrow lead. It was also the NDP's primary target in the province, having only lost the race the race by 50 votes in 2007. However, they weren't able to win the seat, as the Liberals ended up increasing their margin to 500 votes. I predicted the NDP would win by 3%, with 37%. They actually got 38% of the vote, but the Liberals did much better than I thought, getting 39%. I was off by an average of 3% per party.

York South—Weston

It was round 3 of the Liberals' Laura Albanese against the NDP's Paul Ferreira. The two first duked it out in a by-election in 2007 where Ferreira won by 350 votes. A few months later however, Albanese won in the general election by just 500 votes. It seemed with the NDP polling higher in the province, that it was time for the party to win the seat back. However, the Liberals were polling quite well in Toronto, meaning that this seat would likely be quite close. Polls agreed with that assessment, but the more recent riding polls showed an NDP lead here. And word on the street seemed to agree. However, it was not to be. Albanese increased the difference to 800 votes in her victory. I thought the NDP would win by 4%. I was off by an average just over 2% per party.

Maps!

Liberal % change (2007-2011)

Liberal change 

In this map, red is bad for the Liberals, and there is a lot. Those are the ridings where they lost support. Notice how most of those seats are in rural areas, where the Liberals lost much of their support. They did gain in many ridings though, especially in urban areas like in Ottawa and Toronto. People in Toronto saw what happened with vote splitting in the federal election, and voted Liberal to stop the Tories. There were a few rural gains for the Liberals. In Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound for example, the Liberal vote increased due to the collapse of the Greens. In Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, they benefited from having an incumbent that won in a by-election that they didn't have in 2007. 

Progressive Conservative % change (2007-2011)

Progressive Conservative change

This map is mostly green, because the Tories increased their support in much of the province. The Tories increased their vote especially in rural areas and in Northern Ontario. There's only a few ridings where they lost support. There's Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock of course where they faced a Liberal incumbent they didn't have to in 2007. And of course, there's those smattering of seats in Toronto. Don Valley West is the darkest red, where their former leader, John Tory ran in 2007. Bramalea--Gore--Malton also sticks out, as many Tories voted NDP this election due to the popularity of their candidate, Jagmeet Singh in that riding. 

NDP % change (2007-2011)

NDP change

The NDP map is also fairly green, as they also increased their support across the province. Their best increases came in ridings with strong candidates, like in Essex, Bramalea--Gore--Malton, Niagara Falls, Scarborough--Rouge River, and the leader's seat of Hamilton Centre. The biggest decreases were in the two seats held by popular incumbents who chose to retire. The NDP vote was down big time in Kenora--Rainy River where former leader Howard Hampton retired, and in Welland where Peter Kormos retired. 

Green % change (2007-2011)

Green change

The Green change map is perhaps the most depressing. Not one riding showed an increase in votes for the Greens. Not even their leader could increase the vote % for the party. Some of the party's worst losses in votes came in areas in which they did quite well in 2007. This is most evident in Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound, which was their best seat in 2007. 

Liberal popular vote %

Liberal popular vote map

Liberal vote strength was concentrated in urban parts of the province. Their best seats came mostly in the Greater Toronto Area. They also had strong showings in Thunder Bay, Ottawa, London and Windsor. Their worst seats came in more rural parts of the province, mostly in ridings they did not have incumbents. These include areas like Kenora--Rainy River, Timmins--James Bay, Parry Sound--Muskoka, Haldimand--Norfolk, Leeds--Grenville and Renfew--Nipissing-Pembroke. They also did poorly in Oshawa, the only riding in the GTA that was a Tory-NDP race.

PC popular vote % map

PC popular vote map

Tory support is generally the inverse of the Liberals, with their strengths mostly in  rural Ontario, and weaknesses in urban areas. Except for Kenora--Rainy River and Timmins--James Bay, the Tories are still the third place party in Northern Ontario. Their worst seats came in the most urban parts of the province, like in Ottawa Centre, and downtown Toronto. A belt of ridings beginning in York West, and going south to Lake Ontario and turning east until Beaches--East York was especially an empty zone for the PCs. They also did poorly in Hamilton, where much of the anti-NDP votes went to the Liberals. 

NDP popular vote % map

NDP popular vote map

The NDP had their best ridings in their traditional areas. They did very well in Northern Ontario, where they won 5 ridings. They also did well in Hamilton, where they won all three urban seats, and in that belt of ridings in Toronto, where they won 5 seats, and finished 2nd in the other 3. Of particular note was the party doing quite well in southwestern Ontario. They may have only won 2 ridings, but they did better than average in the other ridings, including the rural races. The weakest NDP ridings were in suburban and exurban Toronto (except for Bramalea-Gore-Malton) and in rural eastern Ontario. 

Green popular vote % map

Green popular vote map

The Greens were reduced to their traditional "Green triangle", in the area northwest of Toronto. These areas are  rural and exurban in nature, but whose agricultural traditions are different from the large farms of southwestern Ontario. These areas are attractive to certain Green-friendly voters. The best riding for the Greens was the exurban riding Dufferin-Caledon, which they also did quite well in the federal election. The worst areas for the Greens were in the more populist rural areas like in Northern Ontario, and in Southwestern Ontario. The Greens also did quite poorly in the inner-suburban GTA.