2017 Quebec municipal elections today

Municipal elections are being held across the province of Quebec's 1,110 municipalities today. Voters will elect mayors, and municipal councillors and in some municipalities, borough mayors and borough councillors as well. Additionally, 16 of Quebec's 87 regional county municipalities are having direct elections for their prefect (the leader of the county council). In many of Quebec's municipalities- including 12 of its 13 largest cities, local political parties will be contesting for seats on their respective councils. Elections in those cities often focus on parties trying get a majority of seats on their councils.

Individual parties in Quebec municipalities are often short lived operations, and often are groups pledging support behind one particular mayoral candidate. This can easily be seen in their names, such as “Équipe Denis Coderre pour Montréal” (Team Denis Coderre for Montreal). In fact, most parties have “Équipe so-and-so” as part of their names (in this post, I usually drop these distinctions for the sake brevity, but some party names are just “Équipe so-and-so”, so I can't always avoid the matter). Anyway, when parties are unsuccessful they will often disband as soon as the election is over, and new ones will be created for the next. Municipal parties can sometimes be ideological, but are often just supporters of a particular mayoral candidate. None have official ties to federal or provincial parties, but many often draw their support from the same voters.

Montreal

Most eyes will be on the mayoral and council race in Quebec's largest city of Montreal, which looks to have an exciting race, if polls are to be believed.

In the 2013 election, former federal Liberal cabinet minister Denis Coderre was elected mayor of the city, winning just 32% of the vote, in a four way race. Coderred defeated future federal Liberal cabinet minister Mélanie Joly (who won 26.5% of the vote), city councillor Richard Bergeron (25.5%) and economist Marcel Côté (12.8%). Coderre's party, the Équipe Denis Coderre pour Montréal

(Team Denis Coderre for Montreal) won a plurality of seats on council, 26 of 65, seven short of a majority. Even though he finished in third place on the mayoral ballot, Bergeron's party, Projet Montréal (Project Montreal) became the main opposition party on council, winning 20 seats. Côté's party, Coalition Montréal won six seats, and Joly's Vraie changement pour Montréal (True Change for Montreal) won just four seats. Local borough parties and independents won the remaining eight seats. The 2013 election marked the beginning of a new era in Montreal civic politics. From 2002 to 2012 Montreal had been led by Gérald Tremblay, who had to resign following being implicated in the Charbonneau Commission. With his resignation, Tremblay and his centrist Union Montreal party dissolved, making way for Coderre and his new centrist party's election victory. 

 

2013 mayoral election results by borough

Since the 2013 election, a series of defections to Coderre's party would result in his party forming a majority on council earlier this year. Coderre's party now has 36 seats going into today's election. The opposition Projet Montréal has 19 seats, but has since firmly become Montreal's main opposition party. The other parties have dissolved into small rumps to the point that Vrai changement is not even running a mayoral candidate and Coalition Montréal's mayoral candidate dropped out of the campaign and endorsed Projet Montréal's mayoral candidate, Valérie Plante.

Usually incumbent mayors are re-elected in a cakewalk in their sophomore elections, but with Quebec's unique municipal party system means that this is not always the case. Coderre is facing a stiff challenge from the very formidable Valérie Plante, who has been a city councillor since 2013 and was elected leader of the left-wing Projet Montréal in 2015. She was elected following the departure of the party's founder, Richard Bergeron who left the party and would later join Coderre's party. Throughout the beginning of the campaign, Coderre had a decent lead over Plante in polls, but she has caught up to him, and now the race is neck-and-neck. CROP's last poll, released October 30 gave Plante a two point lead (39% to 37%) over Coderre, with 17% undecided.

One reason for Coderre's polling troubles has been that he is seen as being arrogant, corrupt, authoritarian and divisive, perhaps a throw back to the day's of Montreal's most notorious mayor, Jean Drapeau. To fight back, Coderre has attacked Projet Montréal's financial plan, pie-in-the-sky like promises and Plante's lack of experience.

Map of Montreal's city council districts used in 2013. The 2017 map saw little change.

In total, Montreal City Council is made up of 65 members, which includes a mayor, elected city wide, 18 borough mayors elected from 18 of the 19 boroughs (Ville-Marie has no borough mayor) and 46 councillors elected from 46 districts across the city. In addition, Montreal voters will be electing 38 separate borough councillor positions. These separate borough councillors are not members of city council, but often represent the same parties. Some boroughs have their city councillors as also borough councillors, and therefore do not have separate borough councillors. Candidates for mayor of the city often have a colistier (a “running mate”) who run for council in their place. If a mayoral candidate wins, then the colistier is elected to council (providing that the colistier also wins their seat); if they lose, then the mayoral candidate can still sit on council, as long as their colistier won their seat.

In 2013, Coderre's main base of support came from the more suburban parts of the city, especially the north end, an area he represented as Member of Parliament. Joly's personal support came from the urban south end of the city, an area of the city where she managed to win five boroughs, but where her party had won just one actual council seat (and not even her own, where her colistier lost). Bergeron and his party did well in the east end of the city, especially in the notoriously left wing Pleateau Borough. The 2017 election thus begins with the battle lines drawn, and the two main parties will have to fight over the south and central parts of the city where Joly did well. In 2013, Projet Montréal won many of the council seats in this area, but they will need to win almost all of them to get at least a plurality on city council.

Quebec City

Quebec's provincial capital has been led by mayor Régis Labeaume since a mayoral by-election was held in 2007 following the death of the previous mayor, Andrée Boucher. Labeaume is extremely popular, and polls show that he is expected to win once again. His party, the conservative Équipe Labeaume (Team Labeaume) won all but three seats in the 2013 municipal election. Labeaume himself won 74% of the mayoral vote, and his party won 65% of the council vote.

2013 council results by district

In 2013, Labeaume's party was challenged by the upstart Démocratie Québec (Democracy Quebec), a progressive leaning party, which naturally did not do very well in the conservative city. Labeaume's party won 19 of the council seats, while Démocratie Québec won the remaining three, all in the more left-leaning core of the city. 

 

Quebec City's council districts to be used this election

For this election, there will be three new parties contesting for seats on Quebec City's council. The main competition for opposition status will come from Québec 21 Équipe JF Gosselin, which is the party of Jean-François Gosselin, a former ADQ Member of Quebec's National Assembly. Gosselin's last foray into politics was running in the 2012 provincial election for the Liberals. Gosselin will be running for mayor against Labeaume and polls put him in second place, ahead of Démocratie Québec's mayoral candidate, Anne Guérette, who is currently a city councillor. It will be interesting to see if Gosselin's party can win any council seats, as it is likely Démocratie Québec will still win some of the more urban districts, while Gosselin's support could be more concentrated in the suburbs where Labeaume will still do well.

Laval

Laval's council is currently led by former police officer (and former PQ candidate) Marc Demers and his left-of-centre Mouvement lavallois (Laval Movement). Demers and his party were first elected in the 2013 election, replacing the previous Parti PRO des Lavallois regime, which was also dissolved following the Charbonneau inquiry. Laval's mayor had been Gilles Vaillancourt who resigned in 2012, and would later plead guilty of corruption and fraud and sent to prison. The 2013 election was thus a watershed election for Laval, with only three incumbents running for re-election. Mouvement lavallois won the election, winning 18 of the city's 22 seats. The only other party to win seats was the centrist Action Laval, which won two seats. Action Laval's mayoral candidate was former Liberal MNA Jean-Claude Gobé, who lost to Demers 44% to 24%.

Demers and Gobé will once again duke it out for Laval's top job. There are five other candidates running for mayor, including two sitting city councillors, Michel Trottier and Alain Lecompte. Michel Trottier was elected in 2013 as an independent, but has formed a new party called Parti Laval (Laval Party), which includes two incumbent councillors running for re-election. Lecompte was elected in 2013 as a member of Mouvement lavallois, but has also formed a new party, the Alliance des conseillers autonomes (Alliance of independent councillors). There is one other party running in Laval and that is of Avenir Laval (Future Laval), led by Sonia Baudelot.

Laval's city council districts used in 2013. The 2017 map saw little change.

Gatineau

The 2013 election in Gatineau saw a surprise victory for Maxime Pedneaud-Jobin, who defeated incumbent mayor Marc Bureau 53% to 36%. The race was between two centre-left candidates, with Pedneaud-Jobin winning all but one district. Bureau managed to win the city's downtown Hull-Wright District, while Pedneaud-Jobin won everywhere else. Pedneaud-Jobin is the leader of Gatineau's first and only political party, Action Gatineau. While he won the mayoral race in a landslide, his council slate fared less well, winning just five seats. Independents won the remaining 14 seats on council.

For this year's election, Pedneaud-Jobin will be challenged by two of those indpendent city councillors, Denis Tassé and Sylvie Goneau. There was one poll released by Segma Research which showed Pedneaud-Jobin easily defeating Tassé and Goneau, with 53% to Tassé's 24% and Goneau's 14% with 21% undecided. It should be noted though that Segma botched the 2013 race, showing Bureau defeating Pedneaud-Jobin 51%-34%.

Gatineau's city council districts used in 2013. The 2017 map saw little change.

Four incumbent councillors will be running for re-election for Action Gatineau (excluding Pedneaud-Jobin), while eight independent councillors are running for re-election.

Longueuil

Longueuil will see a changing of the guard in this election, as incumbent mayor and former BQ Member of Parliament Caroline St-Hilaire is not running for re-election. Her party, Action Longueuil which won all but two council seats in 2013 is still in existence though, and is being led by city councillor Sylvie Parent. Running against Parent is another city councillor, Josée Latendresse who was elected in a by-election in 2016 for Action Longueuil, but left the party to sit as an independent. She has formed a new party called Longueuil citoyen (Longueuil Citizen). The third mayoral candidate is former NDP Member of Parliament Sadia Groguhé, who leads the new Option Longueuil party. 

 

Many incumbent city councillors left Action Longueuil and will be running for Longueuil citoyen. Seven incumbents will be running for Longueuil citoyen, while only four are running again for Action Longueuil. 

Longueuil's city council districts

 

Sherbrooke

Sherbrooke's council has been led by mayor Bernard Sévigny since 2009 and he will once again be running for re-election. In 2013, he was easily re-elected with 73% of the vote. Sévigny leads the centre-right Renouveau sherbrookois (Sherbrooke Renewal), which was the only major party in the 2013 election. Even so, his party only won 10 of the 20 seats on council, with the remaining 10 going to independents.

This time there will be a more competitive party running against Renouveau sherbrookois. That is of Sherbrooke citoyen (Sherbrooke Citizen), led by former Quebec solidaire candidate Hélène Pigot. They face an uphill challenge as no incumbents will be running for them. In addition, there are three independent candidates running for mayor. For council, there are six incumbents running for Renouveau sherbrookois and seven independent incumbents running for re-election.

Sherbrooke's new electoral map

Since the last election, Sherbrooke's city council structure will be re-structured. City council will be reduced from 20 to 15 seats (14 districts plus the mayor). Additionally, the city will go from having six boroughs to just four, and will be numbered instead of named. The three-seat Lennoxville Borough Council (now called Borough 3) will be retained, but the Brompton Borough Council has been abolished, as that Borough was merged with the neighbouring Rock Forest—Saint-Élie—Deauville Borough.

Saguenay

Jean Tremblay, who has been mayor of Saguenay since the city's amalgamation in 2002, is finally stepping down. There are four candidates running to replace him, the best known is former Conservative cabinet minister Jean-Pierre Blackburn who is running as an independent. There are two municipal parties running as well and are both running mayoral candidates. The older of the two parties is Équipe du renouveau démocratique (Democratic Renewal Team), which ran in the last election and won two seats. One of those seats was won by Josée Néron who is the party's mayoral candidate. The second party in the city is Parti des citoyens de Saguenay (Party of Saguenay Citizens), which was formed by Mayor Tremblay after the last election. Their mayoral candidate is Dominic Gagnon. Seven councillors who were elected as incumbents in 2013 joined this party and are running for re-election. Five independent councillors are running for re-election. Blackburn was originally going to run for this party, but had a falling out. A fourth candidate running is independent Arthur Gobeil, an accountant. Polling suggests Néron has a bit of a lead over Blackburn with Gagnon in a distant fourth, perhaps due to Blackburn's candidacy. Saguenay City Council has shrunk in size from 20 to 16 seats.

Saguenay's new electoral map

Lévis

Mayor Gilles Lehouillier of Lévis Force 10 is running for re-election against André Voyer who was a council candidate for the opposition Renouveau Lévis (Renewal Lévis) in 2013, but is running as an independent this time. Renouveau Lévis still exists, but is only running four candidates for council and are not running a mayoral candidate. Lévis Force 10 have already won 11 seats on council, as in 11 districts their candidates were the only ones to register. Lévis Force 10 did quite well in 2013 winning all but one seat on council, with an independent candidate winning the remaining seat.

Lévis' city council districts

Trois-Rivières

Trois-Rivières is the largest city in the province with no political parties. There was a fringe party that ran in 2013, but are not running any candidates this time. The city is led by mayor Yves Lévesque, who has been mayor of the city since amalgamation in 2002. The centre-right mayor was re-elected in 2013 over city councillor Sylvie Tardif with 49% of the vote to her 31%. This election, Lévesque is being challenged by city councillor Jean-François Aubin and André Bertrand. Trois-Rivières City council reduced in size from 17 to 15 seats. 

Trois-Rivières city council districts

Terrebonne

Long-time mayor and former Tory MP Jean-Marc Robitaille resigned in 2016 following corruption allegations in the fallout of the Charbonneau Commission. He was replaced as mayor by city councillor Stéphane Berthe. Robitaille's party (Équipe Robitaille) won all but two seats in the 2013 elections, but is no longer an active party for obvious reasons. 

 

Berthe is running for mayor under the new banner of Générations Terrebonne (Generations Terrebonne). Two incumbent city councillors will be running for his party, while the remaining incumbents will be running for Alliance démocratique Terrebonne (Terrebonne Democratic Alliance) whose mayoral candidate is Marc-André Plante. A third party was created called Nouvel Élan Terrebonne (New Spirit Terrebonne) and are also running a full slate of candidates, including Valérie Quevillon who is running for mayor. 

Terrebonne's city council districts

 

Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu

In 2013, the race in Saint-Jean was a free-for-all after the departure of mayor Gilles Dolbec. Michel Fecteau was elected mayor of the city with just 22% of the vote, narrowly ahead of former BQ Member of Parliament Claude Bachand at 20%. Two other candidates were right behind Fecteau and Bachand: Alain Laplante won 19% of the vote, and Stéphane Legrand won 18%. The top three candidates in that election will once again face-off for the mayoralty of the city this time.

The council vote in 2013 was split between three parties. Fecteau's party (Parti Fecteau) won six seats on the 13 seat council; Despite finishing fourth in the mayoral election, Legrand's party (Vision Legrand) became the opposition with five seats. Équipe Alain Laplante won just one seat, while an Independent won the remaining seat. Bachand's party, Avec Bachand (With Bachand) was left off of council.

Saint-Jean's city council districts

Since 2013, Vision Legrand disbanded, with some of its councillors becoming independents and some joining Parti Fecteau. The one independent on council also joined Parti Fecteau. However, some Parti Fecteau councillors left that party. All in all, five incumbent councillors are running for Parti Fecteau, three are running for Équipe Alain Laplante and three are running as independents.

Brossard

Brossard has been led by mayor Paul Leduc from 1990 to 2001 and since 2009. He was re-elected in 2013 with 65% of the vote against his opponent, Louis Lemoine who won 35%. Leduc's party, Priority Brossard won all but two seats on council, while Lemoine's party, Brossard Revival winning the remaining two.

Leduc will once again be running for re-election. Brossard Revival's mayoral candidate is Jean-Marc Pelletier. In addition to those two, this year's mayoral race has expanded thanks to the addition of a new party, Brossard Ensemble (Brossard Together), led by former Priority Brossard councillor Doreen Assaad. She is joined on the ballot by former NDP Member of Parliament Hoang Mai who is running as an independent.

Brossard's city council districts

Five incumbent councillors will be running for re-election for Priority Brossard, two are running for Brossard Ensemble (both former members of Priority Brossard), while one councillor is running for re-election for Brossard Revival.

Repentigny

Long-time Repentigny mayor Chantal Deschamps (of Équipe Deschamps) is running for re-election. She will be challenged by councillor Bruno Villeneuve of Parti démocratique de Repentigny-Le Gardeur (Democratic Party of Repentigny-Le Gardeur). Last election, Deschamps won the mayoralty with 62% of the vote against her Parti démocratique opponent, Jean Langlois who won 38%. Deschamps' party won 12 of the 13 seats on council. Only Villeneuve was able to win a seat for Parti démocratique. With Villeneuve running for mayor, Parti démocratique have no incumbents running for re-election in any of the district seats. All incumbent councillors will be running for Équipe Deschamps.

 

Repentigny's city council districts

Other major cities:

- Drummondville: Incumbent mayor Alexandre Cusson has been re-elected with no opposition. He was first elected in 2013. There are no parties in Drummondville.

- Saint-Jérôme: Incumbent mayor Stéphane Maher has also been re-elected with no opposition. He too was first elected in 2013. His party, Vision Saint-Jérôme is the only one contesting the election, and already have six councillors elected without opposition.

- Granby: Incumbent mayor Pascal Bonin is running for re-election against Yves Bélanger and Carl Bouvier. Bonin was first elected in 2013, when he defeated then-mayor Richard Goulet. There are no parties in Granby.

- Blainville: Blainville will see a re-match of the 2013 mayoral race between mayor Richard Perreault of Vrai Blainville (True Blainville) and Florent Gravel of Mouvement Blainville (Blainville Movement). Vrai Bainville won every seat on council in 2013.

- Saint-Hyacinthe: Incumbent mayor Claude Corbeil faces a challenge from Chantal Goulet. Corbeil was first elected in 2013. There are no parties in Saint-Hyacinthe.

- Mirabel: Incumbent mayor Jean Bouchard of Action Mirbael is challenged by two candidates; city councillor Pierre-Paul Meloche of Mouvement citoyen Mirabel (Mirabel Citizen Movement), an Action Mirabel defector, and René Plouffe who leads Renouveau Mirabel (Mirabel Renewal), who is only running one other council candidate. In 2013, Action Mirabel was the only party in the municipality, winning six of the nine seats. In this election, Action Mirabel are running five councillors for re-election, while Mouvement citoyen Mirabel has one incumbent councillor running.

- Shawinigan: Incumbent mayor Michel Angers is running for re-election against François Bonenfant and Judeline Corriveau. Angers has been mayor since 2009. There are no parties in Shawinigan.

- Dollard-Des Ormeaux: Incumbent mayor Edward Janiszewski is finally facing a credible opposition since being acclaimed to office in 2013. He is challenged by incumbent councillor Alex Bottausci and two other candidates. Janiszewski was first elected in 2005, and has never faced stiff competition for the job in his career. There are no parties in the city.

- Rimouski: Rimouski got a new mayor last year when its mayor, Éric Forest was appointed to the Senate. Forest was replaced by city councillor Marc Parent, who will be running to keep his job. He will be running against city councillor Pierre Chassé and two other candidates. There are no parties in Rimouski.

- Châteauguay: Châteauguay mayor Nathalie Simon of the Citizens' Action party is being challenged by Vision Châteauguay candidate Pierre-Paul Routhier and independent councillor Steve Brisebois. Simon has been mayor of the city since 2009. In 2013, the Citizens' Action party was the only party running, and won six of the nine seats on council. The remaining three independents formed the new Vision Châteauguay party, and with one floor-crosser have four city councillors running for re-election against just three for Citizens' Action.

- Mascouche: Incumbent mayor Guillaume Tremblay of Vision Démocratique de Mascouche (Democratic Vision of Mascouche) is being challenged by two independent candidates, François Collin and Line Lavallée. Tremblay was first elected in 2013, when his party won every seat on council defeating Équipe Luc Thériault. Now, Vision Démocratique is the only party in the city, and have already won six seats on council due to acclamations.

- Victoriaville: Former BQ Member of Parliament André Bellavance was easily elected in a rare mayoral by-election in 2016. He will be running for re-election against Jean Roy. There are no parties in Victoraville.

- Saint-Eustache: Incumbent mayor Pierre Charron of Option Saint-Eustache is being challenged by city councillor Julie Desmarais or Renouveau Saint-Eustache (Renewal Saint-Eustache) and Robert St-Germain of Accès Saint-Eustache (Access Saint-Eustache). Charron has been mayor since 2005, and was easily elected in 2013 when his party was the only one in town. His party won all but two seats on council. One of those two his party did win was won by Desmarais, who ran as an independent. All but one incumbent councillor running for re-election is running for Option Saint-Eustache, with the remaining councillor running as an independent.

- Rouyn-Noranda: Incumbent mayor Mario Provencher is running for re-election, and will be challenged by four other candidates. Provencher was first elected in 2009, and was easily re-elected in 2013 with 80% of the vote. This time he faces stiff opposition from city councillors Diane Dallaire and Philippe Marquis. There are no parties in Rouyn-Noranda, though Provencher had his own party in 2013 where he was the only candidate.

- Boucherville: Incumbent mayor Jean Martel is running for re-election against Monique Reeves. Martel has been mayor of the city since 2009, and leads the only party in the city, Option Citoyens Citoyennes (Citizens Option). In 2013, his party won every seat on city council. In this election, his party has already won two seats due to acclamation. Every incumbent running for re-election, save one is running for his party, while one incumbent is running as an independent.

- Sallaberry-de-Valleyfield: Long-time mayor Denis Lapointe is not running for re-election, leaving this race open. City councillor François Labossière is running against Joanne Brunet and Miguel Lemieux. There are no parties in Valleyfield.

- Vaudreuil-Dorion: Mayor Guy Pilon of Parti de l'Action de Vaudreuil-Dorion (Vaudreuil-Dorion Action Party) is running for re-election against Pierre Séguin, leader of “Team we are”. In 2013 Parti de l'Action was the only party running, and won all but one seat on council.

Prefectural races

Among the 16 races for regional county municipality (RCM) prefects, the two largest RCMs are Montcalm and Les Pays d'en Haut, both of which are located north of Montreal. In Les Pays d'en Haut, Wentworth-Nord mayor André Genest takes on Martin Nadon, Marie-Claire Vachon and Guy Vandenhove for the top job. In Montcalm, Saint-Calixte mayor Louis-Charles Thouin has been acclaimed as prefect.

Polls close across the province at 8pm.

Louis-Hébert by-election today

Voters in the Quebec riding of Louis-Hébert head to the polls today to elect a new member of the Quebec National Assembly. The riding was vacated in April when its MNA, Liberal Sam Hamad resigned. He had held the seat since 2003, taking the riding back from the separatist PQ in 2003.

Louis-Hébert is located in the western suburbs of Quebec City, taking in part of the former city of Sainte-Foy (specifically the districts of L'Aéroport and Pointe-de-Sainte Foy) and the former city of Cap-Rouge, plus the municipality of Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures.

While the riding has existed since 1966, its boundaries before the 2001 redistribution covered less than half of its current territory, though the riding has been based in the western suburbs of the city since its creation. Before the 2001 redistribution, much of the riding was located in the riding of La Peltrie, which is now northwest of the city. Its new boundaries have proved to be good for the Liberal Party, as they won the seat in every election since. But by no means is it safe; Hamad won the seat in the 2007 election by fewer than 900 votes (over the ADQ), and had another close race in 2012, beating the CAQ candidate by a little over 2000 votes.

The riding is overwhelmingly Francophone (97%), with a small percentage (2%) being Anglophone. It is also overwhelmingly White (97%), mostly of French Canadian stock, but it has a non-negligible population of Irish ancestry. Most of the population is Catholic (86%) while 11% have no religion. The riding is significantly more wealthy than the province as a whole. The median income is $50,000 (compared to the provincial median of $33,000). 

2014 results by neighbourhood

Geographically, the main political split in the riding is between the rural area (such as Saint-Augustin) which tends to vote for right-of-centre parties and the urban part of the riding (Cap-Foy and Pointe-de-Sainte-Foy) which tends to vote the Liberals. This split was less obvious in 2014 with Hamad winning the seat by 23 points. In fact on election day, the Liberals won a slightly higher share of the vote in Saint-Augustin than in the Quebec City part of the riding. The right-of-centre CAQ also did better in Saint-Augustin, winning 36% of the election day votes there compared to 30% in Quebec City. Both left-of-centre parties, the PQ and Quebec solidaire did better in Quebec City, but are generally not a good fit for this wealthy riding.

Based on current polling, the race could see a close match between the Liberals and the CAQ. The Liberals are running Hamad's former assistant Ihsanne El Ghernati, who was chosen quickly after the previous candidate had to drop out, following complaints from his former employees. The CAQ is running Genevieve Guilbeaut, the former spokesperson for Quebec's coroner's office. She also was chosen quickly after their candidate dropped out after a controversy as well. As for the other parties, the PQ is running biologist Norman Beauregard and Quebec solidaire is running lawyer Guillaume Boivin. It will be the first test for the new NDP provincial wing which just re-registered its party status after a 23 year hiatus. They are running former MP Denis Blanchette who held the federal riding of Louis-Hébert from 2011 to 2015. The Greens are running their leader, Alex Tyrrell.

Polls close at 8pm.

Chicoutimi by-election charts and maps

Today, there is a provincial by-election in the riding of Chicoutimi in Quebec. The riding has been vacant since last October when PQ MNA Stéphane Bédard resigned his seat.

The riding of Chicoutimi, located in northeastern Quebec has been a PQ stronghold since 1973. It consists of the former city of Chicoutimi, which is now part of the city of Saguenay. The riding is one of the most nationalist in Quebec, voting yes in both the 1980 and 1995 referendums by large margins.

I have been quite busy lately, so I haven't had the chance to do my usual by-election profile. The riding should be an easy PQ hold though, so it shouldn't be that interesting of a race.  The PQ is running businesswoman Mireille Jean as their candidate. Polls show her as the clear front runner.

Despite not having the time to do a write up, I have made plenty of charts and a map...

As you can see, the PQ won most of the riding in 2014, though the Liberals were strong in the southern and eastern suburbs. The CAQ won one poll as did Saguenay councillor Marc Pettersen, who ran as an independent.

Here are the results by city council district for the last provincial and federal elections:

2014 provincial election in Chicoutimi - results by municipal district

2015 federal election in Chicoutimi - results by municipal district

The following chart shows the vote progression of the riding since 1989. The boundaries have not shifted since then.

Chicoutimi vote progression

And finally here is a list of the MNAs who have represented Chicoutimi since confederation:

Polls close at 8pm.

Victoriaville, Quebec mayoral by-election today

Location of Victoriaville

Residents of the city of Victoriaville, Quebec are heading to the polls today in a rare mayoral by-election. The city of 43,000 people in central Quebec is the main city in Quebec's Bois-Francs region, known for being Quebec's breadbasket. The city's top post has been filled on an interim basis by councillor Christian Lettre since the previous mayor Alain Rayes' election to the House of Commons for the Conservatives last October.

Politically, Victoriaville sits at the edges of Quebec's more conservative and nationalist leaning regions, and has elected both Conservatives and Bloquistes to the House of Commons in recent elections. Federally, the city is in the riding of Richmond—Arthabaska which the Tories picked up from the Bloc in last year's federal election with the election of Rayes. The BQ's André Bellavance had held the riding since 2004 before that. André Bachand held the riding for the Progressive Conservatives from 1997 to 2004. The city of Victoriaville itself has been much more nationalist than the riding as whole though, voting for the BQ candidate even when the riding voted PC in 1997 and 2000.

Provincially, Victoriaville is in the riding of Arthabaska, which has been held by Sylvie Roy of the right-of-centre Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) since 2012. Arthabaska has been won by the nationalist Parti Québécois and the federalist Liberals in recent years as well. The Liberals' Claude Bachand held the seat from 2003 to 2007 and from 2008 to 2012. The PQ held the riding from 1989 to 2003, and the CAQ's predecessor, the ADQ held the riding briefly from 2007 to 2008. Arthabaska backed the “Non” side in the 1980 sovereignty referendum, but switched to the “Oui” side for the 1995 referendum, though “Oui” only won 56% to 44%.

Background 

 

Rayes had been mayor of Victoriaville since 2009, when the post was opened up due to the city's previous mayor, Roger Richard (who had been mayor since 2001) decision to to not run for re-election. Rayes, who had been a mathematics and science teacher, won the 2009 mayoral election with 62% of the vote, defeating his nearest opponent, Éric Lefebvre by over 5000 votes. In the 2013 municipal elections, Rayes was re-elected with no opposition. Before his entry into municipal politics, Rayes had previously run for the ADQ in the 2003 provincial election, losing to the Liberals by just 1200 votes in the riding of Arthabaska.

Map of Victoriaville's 10 municipal districts (wards)

Unlike many larger cities in Quebec, Victoriaville has no municipal political parties, perhaps the reason for the lack of competitive races on council in the last election. In 2013, residents in three of Victoriaville's 10 wards (districts) had nothing to vote for, as not only was the mayor acclaimed, so were their local councillors. The only competitive race in the city was one of the two districts with no incumbents running. The eight incumbents running for re-election were easily re-elected to their seats.
 

Outlook 

Candidates for mayor

There are four candidates running to serve as mayor of Vicoriaville until the next municipal elections in 2017. The most well known candidate is easily André Bellavance, who was the riding's Member of Parliament from 2004 to 2005, and served as the Bloc Québécois' leader in the House of Commons briefly in the last parliament. He ran for the party's leadership in 2014, narrowly losing to Mario Beaulieu. Following his defeat, Bellavance left the BQ, and sat as an Independent for the remainder of his term. He did not run in the 2015 federal election, which saw the BQ reduced to a fourth place finish in his riding of Richmond—Arthabaska.

To people in Victoriaville, the next well known candidate is probably Gilles Lafontaine, who was the councillor for Arthabaska-Ouest, a district in the city's southeast, an area of the city which had been in the city of Arthabaska, before it was amalgamated into Victoriaville in 1993. Lafontaine has served on council since winning his seat in 2009, defeating incumbent councillor Donald Dumont by just 46 votes. He was easily re-elected in 2013, defeating his only opponent Charles Boulanger 905 votes to 364. To run for mayor, Lafontaine gave up his seat on council, which may spur on another by-election in the city down the road.

There are two other candidates running, André Guillemette and Simon Roux. Guillemette, a local businessman had previously run for council in 2013 in the Parc-Victoria district, losing to incumbent Marc Morin 677 votes to 485. It was the closest an incumbent councillor came to losing in that election. Roux on the other hand is a political neophyte. He is a 24 year old carpenter, making his first entry into politics.

Due to name recognition alone, I'd imagine Bellavance will probably win, though this prediction is cautioned by my ignorance of small city municipal politics in Quebec. We'll find out who wins for sure when polls close at 8pm.

4 Quebec provincial by-elections today

Canadian Election Atlas seat rating

Voters in four provincial ridings in Quebec are heading to the polls today to elect new members of the National Assembly. These by-elections are the first electoral event in the country following an historic federal election last month which saw the Liberals win a majority government. The federal Liberals won a majority by making inroads in Quebec, winning many seats for the first time in 35 years. The federal and provincial Liberals are technically different parties, but one cannot be faulted for presuming that the Liberal brand has greatly improved since Justin Trudeau became federal Liberal leader.

There have been no provincial polls published in Quebec since August, so it's difficult to predict exactly what will happen in today's by-elections. The last CROP poll from August had the governing Liberals at 33% (down 9 points since the 2014 election), the separatist Parti Quebecois (PQ) at 29% (up four points), the right of centre Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) at 23% (same as 2014) and the left wing Quebec Solidaire (QS) at 13% (up 5 points). The Liberals have been suffering due to unpopular austerity measures, while the PQ is – or was enjoying a small boost from last Spring's election of their new leader, Pierre Karl Peladeau. My guess is following the federal election, the Liberals have likely recovered much of this drop, and this recovery is likely going to come from their nearest ideological rivals, the CAQ.

Three of the four by-elections today are in safe seats. The Liberals are likely to win the Laval riding of Fabre, which they have held since 2003 and the Montreal riding of Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne, which they have held continuously since 1981. The PQ is likely to win the Côte-Nord riding of René-Lévesque, which they have held since 2003. The most interesting race will be in the riding of Beauce-Sud, located on the U.S. border south of Quebec City. This riding is located in the conservative leaning Chaudière-Appalaches region, and is a natural “CAQ riding”. Except, the Liberals won the riding by 12 points in 2014, and have won every election in the riding since 1979, except for when the CAQ's predecessor, the ADQ won it in 2007.

Beauce-Sud

The riding of Beauce-Sud was vacated in September, when its long-time Liberal MNA Robert Dutil resigned his seat after he accepted a position as Senior Vice President for Canam-Ponts. Dutil held the seat from 1984 to 1994 and again since 2008. He had been a cabinet minister for the Jean Charest government, serving as Minister of Revenue from 2008 to 2010 and Minister of Public Security from 2010 to 2012.

Geography

Beauce-Sud is centred on the city of Saint-Georges in eastern Quebec, south of Quebec City in the Chaudière-Appalaches region. The riding is bounded on the east by the U.S. state of Maine, on the south by Quebec's Eastern Townships, and on the north and west by other ridings in the Chaudière-Appalaches region. The Chaudière River bifurcates the riding, running from south to north, passing through Saint-Georges on the way. Other communities in the riding include Saint-Éphrem-de-Beauce, La Guadeloupe, Saint-Gédéon-de-Beauce, Saint-Côme--Linière and Saint-Prosper.

Demographics

Demographically, the riding is very homogenous. It is overwhelmingly Francophone, with nearly 99% of its inhabitants having that language as their mother tongue and it is overwhelmingly White, with 98% of inhabitants being neither a visible minority nor Aboriginal. In terms of ethnicity, most inhabitants identify as Canadian or French Canadian. The riding is also overwhelmingly Catholic, with 93% of the population being of that faith. The riding is less well off than the province as a whole. The median income is $25,000 (provincial median is $28,000) while the average income is $31,000 (provincial average is $36,000).

History

The political uniqueness of the Beauce region has led it to vote for a number of minor parties in its existence, such as Action liberale nationale in 1935, Bloc populaire canadien in 1944, Ralliement créditiste du Québec in 1970 and 1973 and the Parti national populaire in 1976.

While the Liberals won the seat by a comfortable margin in 2014, previous elections saw more close races between them and the CAQ, and its predecessor, the ADQ. In 2012, Dutil won the riding by just 650 votes over his CAQ opponent and in 2008, he won the riding by just 570 votes over his ADQ opponent, Claude Morin, who had won the seat by a comfortable 9000 vote margin in 2007, when the ADQ had formed the official opposition. 2003 was also a close race, when Liberal Diane Leblanc won the seat by 1300 votes over her ADQ opponent.

List of MNAs:

Beauce (1867-1973)

C.H. Pozer, Liberal (1867-1874)

F.-X. Dulac, Cons. (1874-1878)

Jos. Poirier, Liberal (1878-1881)

J.G.P. Blanchet, Cons. (1881-1892)

Jos. Poirier, Cons. (1892-1897) 2^nd time

H.S. Béland, Liberal (1897-1902)

A. Godbout, Liberal (1902-1921)

J.H. Fortier, Liberal (1921-1929)

J.-É. Fortin, Liberal (1929-1935)

Vital Cliche, A.L.N. (1935-1936)

Raoul Poulin, U.N. (1936)

J.-É. Perron, U.N. (1937-1939)

H.-R. Renault, Liberal (1939-1944)

É. Lacroix, B.P.C. (1944-1945)

G.-O. Poulin, U.N. (1945-1960)

Fabien Poulin, Liberal (1960-1962)

P.-É. Allard, U.N. (1962-1970)

Fabien Roy, R.C.Q. (1970-1973)

Beauce-Sud (1973-present)

Fabien Roy. R.C.Q. (1973-1975); P.N.P (1975-1979) continued

Hermann Mathieu, Liberal (1979-1985)

Rbt. Dutil, Liberal (1985-1994)

P.-E. Quirion, Liberal (1994-1996)

Ms. Diane Leblanc, Liberal (1997-2007)

Claude Morin, A.D.Q. (2007-2008)

Rbt. Dutil, Liberal (2008-2015) 2^nd time

Political geography

In the last few elections, the CAQ/ADQ has been the strongest in the central and northern parts of the riding, while the Liberals have been the strongest in the west. The city of Saint-Georges, which makes up about half of the population of the riding is usually evenly split between the Liberals and their conservative-leaning opponents.

In the 2014 election, Liberal support was the strongest in the more rural parts of the riding, especially in the municipalities in the western part of the district. They broke 60% of the vote in two municipalities in western Beauce-Sud: in Sainte-Colthide-de-Beauce and in Lac-Poulin. CAQ support was concentrated in Saint-Georges and adjacent municipalities. The CAQ barely won the riding's largest city, and likely lost it if you account for the advance votes. The best municipality for the CAQ was Saint-Philibert, an eastern suburb of Saint-Georges, where they won 48% of the election day vote. None of the other parties won any polls in the riding. The PQ's best municipality was Saint-Ludger, located at the southern point of the riding, where they won 13%. Quebec Solidaire's best municipality was Saint-Hilaire-de-Dorset (also in the south of the riding) where they won 8% of the vote.

Federally, most of this riding is located in the electoral district of Beauce, which just re-elected Conservative MP Maxime Bernier last month. The riding is considered the most Conservative in the province, and has gone Conservative since 2006.

2014 results by municipality

Outlook

The Liberals are running Saint-Benoît-Labre native Paul Busque, a managing director at Saint-Georges GM as their candidate. The candidate with the best chance of beating Busque is Tom Redmond, who is running for the CAQ. He is a city councillor in Saint-Georges. The PQ candidate, Renaud Fortier is also a Saint-Georges city councillor. Quebec solidaire is running their 2014 candidate, pharmacist Diane Vincent.

Despite the riding being so homogeneously Francophone, it is far from a nationalist riding. It voted “NO” in both referendums, and the PQ has never won the seat. The PQ has not even finished second here since 1998. In conservative and federalist Beauce, the clear race is between Busque, the Liberal candidate and Redmond, the CAQ candidate. Following the Liberal surge in the federal election, it is quite possible that the Liberals will likely hold on to this seat in the National Assembly.

Fabre

Fabre was vacated in August when its MNA, Liberal Gilles Ouimet stepped down to spend more time with his family. Ouimet was a backbench MP, and had represented the riding since just 2012.

Geography

The riding of Fabre covers the western 1/6th of the city of Laval, a large suburb north of Montreal. Laval consists of the entirety of the Île Jésus and surrounding islands, and was the product of an amalgamation of a number of smaller communities in 1965. Due to Laval's large geographical size, many of these communities still retain much of their character despite rapid suburbanization of the island. Fabre contains the former municipalities of Laval-Ouest, Laval-sur-le-Lac and Îles Laval, plus large parts of Fabreville and Sainte-Dorothée plus a small part of Chomedey (the Saint-Martin area).

Most of the population lives on either the south or the north coasts of the riding. A majority of the population lives on the south coast, which is dominated by Sainte-Dorothée. The north coast is made up of the communities of Laval-Ouest and Fabreville. The area between the two coasts is primarily made up of farm land, woods and golf courses.

Demographics

Over two-thirds of the population in Fabre are Francophones, with 69% of the population having French as their first language. 10% of the population are Anglophones, while 29% of the riding are Allophones (mother tongue is neither English nor French). The main non-official languages spoken in the riding are Arabic and Greek. 79% of the riding is White, with most of the rest being Arab (6%), Black (4%), South Asian (2%), Southeast Asian (2%) and Latin American (2%). A majority of the population identifies as either French or Canadian. There are also large groups of people identifying as either Irish, Greek or Italian. 60% of the riding is Catholic, while 11% is Christian Orthodox. The main non-Christian faith is Islam, with 12% being Muslim. 11% of the riding has no religious affiliation. Fabre is slightly wealthier than the province as a whole. The median income is $34,000 while the average income is $43,000.

History

Thanks to its large Allophone population, Fabre has usually voted Liberal in its history. In PQ held the riding in the early 1980s and for nearly a decade between 1994 and 2003. Since then, the Liberals have held the seat, usually defeating the Péquistes by three or four thousand votes. In 2007, the ADQ came close to winning the riding, with the Liberals only winning the seat by 1200 votes. In the 1995 sovereignty referendum, the “Yes” side did win, though it was close (51%-49%).

While the riding of Fabre has existed since 1966, it has only covered the western end of Laval since 1981. Before then, the region was part of the riding of Laval.

List of MNAs:

Laval (1867-1981)

J.-H. Bellerose, Cons. (1867-1875)

L.-O. Loranger, Cons. (1875-1882)

P.-É. Leblanc, Cons. (1882-1883)

Amédée Gaboury, Liberal (1883-1884)

P.-É. Leblanc, Cons. (1884-1908) 2^nd time

J.W. Levesque, Liberal (1908-1919)

J.-O. Renaud, Cons. (1919-1931)

Jos. Filion, Liberal (1931-1935)

F.-J. Leduc, Cons. (1935-1936); U.N. (1936-1939); Liberal (1939-1948)
Omer Barrière, U.N. (1948-1956)

L. Pouliot, U.N. (1956-1960)

J.-N. Lavoie, Liberal (1960-1981)

Fabre (1981-present)

Michel Leduc, P.Q. (1981-1985)

J.-A. Joly, Liberal (1985-1994)

Jos. Facal, P.Q. (1994-2003)

Ms. Michelle Courchesne, Liberal (2003-2012)

Gilles Ouimet, Liberal (2012-2015)

Political geography

Recent elections have revealed a geographic dichotomy in the riding, with the more French Canadian northern part of the riding backing the PQ and the CAQ, with the more diverse southern part of the riding (especially Sainte-Dorothée) strongly backing the Liberals.

This dichotomy was less prevalent in the 2014 election, as the Liberals won every neighbourhood in the riding. However, they were the weakest in Laval-Ouest, where they won just 37% of the vote. The Liberals continued to win big on the south coast of the island, winning over 60% of the vote in Sainte-Dorothéee, Saint-Martin (Chomedey) and Laval-sur-le-Lac. The PQ was strongest in Îles Laval where they won 29% of the vote, while the CAQ was strongest in Fabreville, where they won 25% of the election day vote (ahead of the PQ). Quebec Solidaire was strongest in Laval-Ouest, where they won just 9%. QS did not win any polls.

Federally, most of Fabre is located in the riding of Laval—Les Îles, which just voted Liberal last month. The NDP had won it in 2011, but the Liberals held the riding before that, since 1993.

2014 results by neighbourhood

Outlook

The Liberals are running local businesswoman and president of the Réseau des carrefours jeunesse-emploi du Québec, Monique Sauvé in this seat. The PQ is running Jibril Akaaboune Le François, a civil servant. The CAQ is running teacher Carla El-Ghandour. UQAM student Charles Lemieux is running for Quebec Solidaire.

The PQ has only ever won Fabre when they have received at least 41% of the province-wide vote. Considering the last CROP poll put the PQ at 29% province-wide, it is very unlikely the PQ will win this seat. For the CAQ, they only came close to winning the riding when they won 31% of province-wide vote in 2007 (as the ADQ), so they are unlikely to win it as well. I am very confident the Liberals should easily retain this seat.

René-Lévesque

The riding of René-Lévesque (formerly known as Saguenay) has been vacant since September, when its MNA, Péquiste Marjolain Dufour resigned, citing health reasons. He had represented the riding since 2003.

Geography

René-Lévesque is located in Quebec's Côte-Nord region, northeast of Quebec City. The riding is centred on the city of Baie-Comeau, where close to a majority of the population live. Almost the entire population of the riding lives on the south coast of the riding, along the Saint Lawrence River, running from the Saguenary River in the west to Baie-Trinité in the east. From the Saint Lawrence in the south, the riding extends deep into the sparsely populated Quebec interior northward, until it hits the circular Manicouagan Reservoir, which is about where the northern boundary is. In addition to Baie-Comeau, the riding's other main communities include Chute-aux-Outardes, Pessamit (Betsiamites), Forestville, Les Escoumins, Pointe-aux-Outardes, Pointe-Lebel, Ragueneau and Sacré-Coeur.

Demographics

Most of the riding is Francophone, with 94% having French as their first language. Most of the rest (5%) speaks Innu as their first language. In fact, 10% of population is of First Nation ancestry (the riding is home to two reserves, Pessamit and Essipit). Outside of this mostly Innu population, the riding is fairly homogenous. Almost the entirety of the rest of the riding is is White, most of whom are of French Canadian ancestry. 94% of the riding is Catholic, with most of the remainder belonging to no religion. In terms of income, the riding closely matches the province-wide numbers, with the median income being at $28,000 and the average at $36,000.

History

For much of its history, René-Lévesque has been a PQ stronghold. It was one of the only ridings to vote PQ in 1970, the first election the party ran in. The PQ held the seat until losing it in a by-election in 1983. The Liberals managed to keep the seat, winning close elections in 1985 and 1989, before losing it in 1994. The PQ easily won the seat in 1994 and 1998, and in the interim, the riding saw the strongest result for the “Yes” side out of all ridings in the 1995 sovereignty referendum. 73% of voters in the riding had voted to separate from Canada. The ADQ won the seat in a 2002 by-election, which was a surprise victory, as it was only the second seat the party had ever won at that point. However, the ADQ only held it for a year, as the PQ took it back in the 2003 general election. Since then, the PQ has continued to win the seat by comfortable margins, and always receiving between 50 and 60% of the vote. The ADQ and the CAQ have never been able to come close to winning the seat again, not even in 2007 which is the only election where they were elected as the main opposition party. Since 2008, the Liberals have been the second place party in the riding, but far behind the PQ.

List of MNAs:

Chicoutimi-Saguenay (1867-1912)

P.-A. Tremblay, Ind. (1867-1871); Liberal (1871-1874)

M.G. Baby, Cons. (1874-1875)

W.E. Price, Cons. (1875-1880)

J.- É. Beaudet, Cons. (1880-1881)

Élie Saint-Hiliare, Ind. Cons. (1881-1888)

Séverin Dumais, Parti national (Liberal) (1888-1890)

Onésime Côté, Parti national (Liberal) (1890-1892)

Honoré Petit, Cons. (1892-1912)

Charlevoix-Saguenay (1912-1948)

Pierre D'Auteuil, Cons. (1912-1919)

P. Dufour, Liberal (1919-1927)

J.U.E. Rochette, Liberal (1927-1936)

A. Leclerc, U.N. (1936-1939)

J.U.E. Rochette, Liberal (1939-1944) 2^nd time

A. Leclerc, U.N. (1944-1948)

Saguenay (1948-2003)

Pierre Ouellet, U.N. (1948-1960)

Lucien Bélanger, Liberal (1960-1962)

Rodrigue Thibault, Liberal (1962-1963)

P.-W. Maltais, Liberal (1964-1970)

Lucien Lessard, P.Q. (1970-1982)

Ghislain Maltais, Liberal (1983-1994)

G.-Y. Gagnon, P.Q. (1994-2001)

François Corriveau, A.D.Q. (2002-2003)

René Lévesque (2003-present)

Marjolain Dufour, P.Q. (2003-2015)

Political geography

Except for four small areas, the PQ normally wins everything in the riding. The only part of the riding that has consistently voted Liberal in recent elections is the Pessimit Indian Reserve southwest of Baie-Comeau. The Liberals also usually win the tiny Essipit Reserve which is located further up the Saint Lawrence in the southwest of the riding. The Liberals have also twice won at least one poll in Sacré-Coeur (also in the southwest) and in the east end of Baie-Comeau.

In 2014, the PQ won every municipality in the riding, except for the two Indian Reserves. Their strongest municipality was Chute-aux-Outardes, a suburb of Baie-Comeau, where they won 71% of the vote. Their next best area was the vast Rivière-aux-Outardes unorganized territory, which geographically makes up almost the entire riding, except for the southwest and the coast. The Liberals won the two Indian reserves, winning Pessamit with 50% of the vote and Essipit with 38%. Essipit was the strongest community for the CAQ, where they won 27% of the vote, which was still in third place. The best result for Quebec Solidaire was in Tadoussac, where they won 13% of the vote. Neither the CAQ nor the QS won any polls.

Federally this riding is located in the electoral district of Manicouagan, which voted for the Bloc last month after having voted for the NDP in 2011. Prior to 2011, Manicouagan had voted for the Bloc in every election since 1993.

2014 results by municipality

Outlook

The PQ is running the director general of the Société d'aide au développement de la collectivité de la Manicouagan, Martin Ouellet as their candidate in this riding. The Liberals are running Baie-Comeau city councillor Karine Otis to oppose Ouellet. The CAQ candidate is Dave Savard, a philosophy teacher at a local CEGEP, who lost the federal Liberal nomination in Manicouagan. Retired teacher Claire du Sablon will be the Quebec Solidaire candidate.

In its history, this riding has produced two unexpected by-election results, when the Liberals won it in 1983 and when the ADQ won it in 2002. Perhaps another surprise win is in the books, but I do not believe this to be very likely (if it does happen, it will likely be the Liberals). This area just eschewed the Liberal wave in the federal election, so I do not see them backing the Liberals at this point in time. The most sovereigntist riding in the province should still vote PQ.

Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne

Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne has been a vacant seat since August, when its MNA, Liberal Marguerite Blais resigned, following the death of her husband. Blais had served in the cabinet of Jean Charest as Minister of Senior Citizens. She had represented the district since 2007.

Geography

Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne is located in central Montreal, southwest of the Downtown. It consists of all of the Le Sud-Ouest borough and a small part of the Ville-Marie borough. The riding hugs the Lachine Canal, running from Parc Angrignon in the south to around Autoroute 10 in the north. Its northwestern boundary closely follows Autoroute 20, while its southeastern boundary follows the Canal de l'Aqueduc and Autoroute 15. The riding contains a number of historic Montreal neighbourhoods like Griffintown, Little Burgundy, Saint-Henri, Pointe-Saint-Charles, Côte-Saint-Paul and Ville-Émard.

Demographics

The riding is one of the more diverse in the province. A bare majority of the riding (56%) is Francophone, 25% are Allophones and 19% are Anglophones. After French and English, the main native languages in the riding are Spanish, Chinese, Arabic, Italian and Bengali. In terms of race, nearly three quarters (72% )of the riding is White. Due to the riding being home to Montreal's historically Black neighbourhood of Little Burgundy, Blacks are the largest minority group in the riding, making up 7% of the population. There are also large numbers of Chinese, South Asians, Arabs, Latin Americans and Filipinos. After French Canadian, the main ethnic groups in the riding are Irish, Italian, English and Scottish. Catholics make up 53% of the population, while Christians as a whole make up 64%. Islam is the largest non Christian religion, with 8% of the riding being Muslim. The riding also has a high irreligious population at 24%. The riding is poorer than the province as a whole, with the median income being $23,000 and the average income being $34,000.

History

The riding was created in 1994 when the ridings of Saint-Henri (which was made up of Saint-Henri, Côte-Saint-Paul and Ville-Émard) and Sainte-Anne (which was made up of Griffintown, Little Burgundy and Pointe-Saint-Charles, plus part of Verdun) was merged. Both ridings had gone Liberal continuously since 1981, and have also gone Liberal ever since being merged together. Both ridings went PQ in 1976, the only time the riding has ever voted for the PQ.

While the riding hasn't gone PQ since 1976, there have been some close races since. In the riding's first election after it merged in 1994, the Liberals only won the seat by 641 votes over the PQ. The 1995 referendum was also close, with the “No” side winning 53% to 47%. Since then, the Liberals have won the seat in every election by a margin of two to three thousand, except for in 2003, when they won by over 6000 votes and in 2014, when they won by over 11000 votes.

List of MNAs:

<Sainte-Anne>

Montréal-Centre (1867-1890)

E.B. Carter, Cons. (1867-1871)

L.H. Holton, Liberal (1871-1874)

Chas. Alexander, Liberal (1874-1875)

A.W. Ogilvie, Cons. (1875-1878)

H.A. Nelson, Liberal (1878-1881)

G.W. Stephens Sr., Liberal (1881-1886)

Jas. McShane, Liberal (1886-1890)

Montréal Division No. 6 (1890-1912)

Jas. McShane, Liberal (1890-1892) continued

P. Kennedy, Cons. (1892-1895)

J.J.E. Guerin, Liberal (1895-1904)

M.J. Walsh, Liberal (1904-1908)

Denis Tansey, Cons. (1908)

M.J. Walsh, Liberal (1908-1912) 2^nd time

Montréal–Sainte-Anne (1912-1966)

Denis Tansey, Cons. (1912-1919) 2^nd time

B.-A. Conroy, Liberal (1919-1923)

W.J. Hushion, Liberal (1923-1924)

J.H. Dillon, Liberal (1924-1935)

F.L. Connors, Liberal (1935-1942)

Thos. Guerin, Liberal (1942-1948)

F. Hanley, Ind. (1948-1966)

Sainte-Anne (1966-1970)

F. Hanley, Ind. (1966-1970) continued

G.P.G. Springate, Liberal (1970-1976)

J.-M. Lacoste, P.Q. (1976-1981)

M. Polak, Liberal (1981-1989)

Normand Cherry, Liberal (1989-1994)

<Saint-Henri>

Hochelaga (1867-1912)

Louis Beaubien, Cons. (1867-1886)

J.-O. Villeneuve, Cons. (1886-1887)

Chas. Champagne, Liberal (1888-1890)

J.-O. Villeneuve, Cons. (1890-1897)

D.-J. Décaire, Liberal (1897-1904)

J.-L. Décaire, Liberal (1904-1912)

Montréal-Hochelaga (1912-1923)

Séverin Letourneau, Liberal (1912-1919)

J.-H. Bédard, Liberal (1919-1923)

Montréal–Saint-Henri (1923-1966)

J.A. Bray, Cons (1923-1927)

A. Leduc, Liberal (1927-1931)

J.-M. Gabias, Liberal (1931-1935)

W.-E. Laurailt, A.L.N. (1935-1936)

René Labelle, U.N. (1936-1939)

Émile Boucher, Liberal (1939-1944)

J.-H. Delisle, U.N. (1944-1952)

P. Lalonde, Liberal (1952-1966)

Saint-Henri (1966-1994)

C. Martellani, U.N. (1966-1970)

Gérard Shanks, Liberal (1970-1976)

Jacques Couture, P.Q. (1976-1981)

Roma Hains, Liberal (1981-1989)

Ms. Nicole Loiselle, Liberal (1989-1994)

Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne (1994-present)

Ms. Nicole Loiselle, Liberal (1994-2007) continued

Ms. Marguerite Blais, Liberal (2007-2015)

Political geography

In both 2008 and 2012, the Liberals have been able to win the seat by winning large margins in the more diverse north end of the riding, specifically in Little Burgundy and Griffintown. The rest of the riding is more of a mix between the PQ and the Liberals, with the PQ being the strongest in Saint-Henri, Côte-Saint-Paul and Ville-Émard.

In 2014, the large margin in which the Liberals won the seat meant that they had swept nearly every poll in the riding, including winning all the polls in Saint-Henri. The PQ was left with a handful of polls in the south, in Côte-Saint-Paul and Ville-Émard. The Liberals were especially strong in Little Burgundy, where they won 74% of the vote. Their next best neighbourhood was next-door Griffintown where they won 65% of the vote. The PQ's best neighbourhood was Côte-Saint-Paul, where they won 29% of the vote. Côte-Saint-Paul was also the best neighbourhood for the CAQ, winning 15% of the vote there. And Quebec Solidaire won 16% of the vote in Saint-Henri (finishing ahead of the CAQ), which was their best neighbourhood. Neither the QS or the CAQ won any polls.

2014 results by neighbourhood

Outlook

The Liberal candidate here is Dominique Anglade, who is the former president of the CAQ. She announced in September that she had left the party, saying it no longer represented her views. Anglade had previously run for the CAQ. in Fabre in 2012. Anglade is an engineer by training and the daughter of Haitian immigrants. Running against Anglade for the PQ is health director Gabrielle Lemieux. The CAQ is running Dawson College student Louis-Philippe Boulanger and Quebec Solidaire is running lawyer Marie-Eve Rancourt.

Considering the PQ hasn't won in this riding since 1976, it is unlikely they will do so in this by-election. I expect the Liberals to easily retain the seat.

Conclusion

Whenever we have a day with a lot of by-elections, there is always talk about “wins” and “losses” for each party. For the Liberals, they need to retain their three seats for this to be a “win”. A loss for them would be losing Beauce-Sud to the CAQ, even if they retain their other two seats. For the PQ, they are unlikely to gain any seats tonight, so they need to keep their one riding, and make vote share gains in the other three ridings for this to be a win for them. A close result (or a loss) in René-Lévesque would mean a very bad night for the PQ. For the CAQ, winning Beauce-Sud would mean a huge night for them, especially considering how terrible the last by-election night was (when they lost Chauveau to the Liberals in June). A loss for them would be not even being competitive there. And finally for Quebec Solidaire, they have nothing to really gain (and nothing to lose) in these by-elections. A win for them would be just increasing their vote share. Not doing so would be a big lose for them, considering their recent poll numbers.

We'll find out the winners and losers when the polls close at 8pm.