Quebec 2012 election prediction map (August 13 edition)

Current projection map.

Over a week of the Quebec election campaign has passed, and the race has remained just as close as it was when it began. All the polls are showing that the Liberals (PLQ) and the Parti Quebecois (PQ) are for all intents and purposes tied with the most recent polls showing the two parties within 3% points of each other at the most. And, to make things interesting the centre-right Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) party is coming on strong with one poll showing the new party within 5% of leading party.

While both the PQ and the PLQ are still neck and neck, they two parties have flipped their positions in the last week. At the beginning of the campaign, the Liberals were topping most of the polls, while the PQ now is. Even a narrow loss in the popular vote for the PQ is a good thing for that party, as due to Liberal vote concentration in Montreal, the PQ can still win (as was the case in 1998). However, the resurgence of the CAQ means this election may look more like the 2007 election where the electorate was split three ways, with the Liberals, the PQ and the predecessor to the CAQ, the Action Democratique du Quebec all received about 1/3 of the votes, and about 1/3 of the seats.

In making my prediction, I looked a lot at the 2007 election as a frame of reference. Where the ADQ did will in 2007 will probably be where the CAQ will do well in 2012. The polls seem to confirm this, showing the CAQ doing well in Quebec City, and in the Montreal suburbs. It can also be presumed the CAQ will do well in the most right wing part of the province, the Chaudiere-Appalaches region south of Quebec City.

For my first seat-by-seat projection of the campaign, I looked at three recent polls published by Leger, CROP and Forum Research. I took a look at their regional breakdowns and came up with averages to adust the redistributed figures from the 2008 election. For the seats that looked close, I took a further look at the riding history to come up with a plausible projection for those ridings. I also made further adjustments to other ridings where I saw fit. I will continue to make adjustments as the campaign goes on to factor in other things. An official list of candidates will also be important. I will be holding out on making projections for the new Option Nationale party and other parties for the time being (although, as you will see, columns exist for them.) I did make one projection for the ON in the riding where their leader is running.

As is always the case when I make projections, I rely on feedback just as much as I rely on polling data, so please let me know what you think is going on on the ground.

Here is my current seat by seat projection; All ridings shaded in grey are considered "too close to call" and appear as grey on the map. 

Riding	PLQ	PQ	CAQ	QS	PVQ	ON	Oth	Winning candidate
Abitibi-Est	37	40	16	4	2			Elizabeth Larouche
Abitibi-Ouest	20	54	19	7				Francois Gendron
Acadie	54	16	13	10	4			Christine St-Pierre
Anou—Louis-Riel	37	29	18	10	4			Lise Theriault
Argenteuil	34	34	21	4	4			Lise Proulx or Roland Richer
Arthabaska	30	29	31	4	3			Sylvie Roy
Beauce-Nord	25	11	55	3	3			Andre Spenard
Beauce-Sud	33	11	47	3	3			Richard Savoie
Beauharnois	24	41	28	4	3			Guy Leclair
Bellechasse	32	18	41	5				Christian Levesque
Berthier	17	40	33	5	4			Andre Villeneuve
Bertrand	25	45	18	5	4			Claude Cousineau
Blainville	23	34	37	3	4			Daniel Ratthe
Bonaventure	55	31	8	2	2			Damien Arsenault
Borduas	18	50	18	5	4			Pierre Duchesne
Bourassa-Sauve	48	22	18	9	2			Rita de Santis
Bourget	18	45	19	11	5			Maka Kotto
Brome—Missisquoi	34	28	25	5	4			Pierre Paradis
Chambly	22	38	32	4	4			Bertrand St-Arnaud
Champlain	25	38	29	4				Noella Champagne
Chapleau	46	23	19	4	5			Marc Carriere
Charlesbourg	34	21	35	4				Denise Trudel
Charlevoix—Cote-de-Beaupre	25	40	24	3	3			Pauline Marois
Chateauguay	35	31	27	3	4			Pierre Moreau
Chauveau	26	17	49	4				Gerard Deltell
Chicoutimi	33	43	15	6				Stephane Bedard
Chomedey	56	15	23	3	3			Guy Ouellette
Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere	23	17	51	4	2			Marc Picard
Cote-du-Sud	40	20	31	4	3			Robert Mortin
Cremazie	27	40	15	12	4			Diane De Courcy
D'Arcy-McGee	76	3	9	7	5			Lawrence Bergman
Deux-Montagnes	22	37	33	3	5			Daniel Goyer
Drummond—Bois-Francs	27	34	30	5	2			Annie Jean
Dubuc	34	49	19	5				Jean-Marie Claveau
Duplessis	25	49	15	5	3			Lorraine Richard
Fabre	38	29	26	4	4			Gilles Ouillet
Gaspe	38	45	10	3				Gaetan Lelievre
Gatineau	50	27	17	6	5			Stephanie Vallee
Gouin	12	36	8	38	4	*		Francoise David
Granby	21	27	40	5	3			Francois Bonnardel
Groulx	25	33	33	3	4			Raymond Archambault or Helene Daneault
Hochelaga—Maisonneuve	8	49	16	19	5			Carole Poirier
Hull	42	30	13	11	7			Maryse Gaudreault
Huntingdon	32	25	34	5	3			Claire Isabelle
Iberville	29	43	26	4	4			Marie Bouille
Iles-de-la-Madeleine	35	46	4	3	3			Jeannie Richard
Jacques-Cartier	67	4	11	7	9			Geoffrey Kelley
Jean-Lesage	27	28	31	7				Johanne Lapointe
Jeanne-Mance—Viger	60	10	17	8	2			Filomena Rotiroti
Jean-Talon	41	26	19	5	5			Yves Bolduc
Johnson	21	36	33	5	3			Yves-Francois Blanchet
Joliette	20	43	27	7				Veronique Hivon
Jonquiere	29	45	18	5	1			Sylvain Gaudreault
Labelle	20	50	18	5	4			Sylvain Page
Lac-Saint-Jean	21	53	18	4	3			Alexandre Clouthier
LaFontaine	57	14	15	8	4			Marc Tanguay
La Peltrie	30	15	47	4				Eric Caire
La Piniere	51	19	25	4	4			Fatima Houda-Pepin
Laporte	39	28	24	5	5			Nicole Menard
La Prairie	32	36	29	3	3			Pierre Langlois
L'Assomption	17	38	38	4	4			Lizabel Nitoi or Francois Legault
Laurier—Dorion	33	32	7	19	6			Gerry Sklavounos
Laval-des-Rapides	35	33	24	4	4			Alain Paquet
Laviolette	48	25	19	5	1			Julie Boulet
Levis	32	19	38	6				Christian Dube
Lotbiniere—Frontenac	35	22	34	4	1			Laurent Lessard
Louis-Hebert	39	23	29	3	3			Sam Hamad
Marguerite-Bourgeoys	55	15	14	8	4			Robert Poeti
Marie-Victorin	19	45	26	5	4			Bernard Drainville
Marquette	44	21	17	8	7			Francois Ouimet
Maskinonge	32	31	29	4	1			Jean-Paul Diamond
Masson	12	45	37	3	4			Diane Hamelin
Matane—Matapedia	20	58	14	4	2			Pascal Berube
Megantic	32	37	21	6				Gloriane Blais
Mercier	8	29	11	44	5			Amir Khadir
Mille-Iles	39	29	25	4	4			Francine Charbonneau
Mirabel	16	38	40	3	4			Sylvie d'Amours
Montarville	31	30	31	4	4			Nicole Girard or Nathalie Roy
Montmorency	27	21	41	3	3			Michelyne St-Laurent
Mont-Royal	63	7	12	10	6			Pierre Arcand
Nelligan	60	9	14	7	7			Yolande James
Nicolet—Becancour	25	33	30	*	3	9		Gilles Mayrand
Notre-Dame-de-Grace	54	7	10	6	15			Kathleen Weil
Orford	37	32	19	6	4			Pierre Reid
Outremont	41	20	12	17	7			Raymond Bachand
Papineau	42	29	18	5	4			Alexandre Iraca
Pointe-aux-Trembles	12	52	20	9	4			Nicole Leger
Pontiac	58	15	13	6	6			Charlotte L'Ecuyer
Portneuf	31	20	40	5				Jacques Marcotte
Rene-Levesque	18	55	19	5				Marjolain Dufour
Repentigny	22	37	34	4	4			Scott McKay
Richelieu	21	49	18	5	4			Elaine Zakaib
Richmond	34	36	19	5	3			Etienne-Alexis Boucher
Rimouski	22	51	17	6				Irvin Pelletier
Riviere-du-Loup—Temiscouata	32	38	21	3	2			Michel Lagace
Robert-Baldwin	68	3	13	8	6			Pierre Marsan
Roberval	31	43	17	4				Denis Trottier
Rosemont	19	46	15	14	4			Jean-Francois Lisee
Rousseau	21	52	15	6	4			Nicolas Marceau
Rouyn-Noranda—Temiscamingue	32	34	21	8	2			Gilles Chapadeau
Saint-Francois	35	39	16	5				Rejean Hebert
Saint-Henri—Sainte-Anne	35	33	12	12	5			Marguerite Blais
Saint-Hyacinthe	24	41	24	5	4			Emilien Pelletier
Saint-Jean	24	41	23	4	4			Dave Turcotte
Saint-Jerome	19	38	37	4	4			Gilles Robert
Saint-Laurent	51	13	17	11	6			Jean-Marc Fournier
Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques	15	42	13	21	6			Daniel Breton
Saint-Maurice	29	38	22	4	3			Luc Trudel
Sainte-Rose	32	34	28	5	2			Suzanne Proulx
Sanguinet	20	42	33	3	2			Alain Therrien
Sherbrooke	36	36	12	8	4			Jean Charest or Serge Cardin
Soulanges	36	33	21	4	4			Lucie Charlebois
Taillon	23	40	27	5	4			Marie Malavoy
Taschereau	28	37	17	9	5			Agnes Maltais
Terrebonne	16	40	37	5	4			Mathieu Traversy
Trois-Rivieres	31	33	26	5	2			Djemila Benhabib
Ungava	26	44	18	7	2			Luc Ferland
Vachon	14	53	22	6	4			Martine Ouellet
Vanier-Les Rivieres	31	19	41	4	2			Sylvain Levesque
Vaudreuil	44	24	24	3	5			Yvon Marcoux
Vercheres	15	45	32	4	4			Stephane Bergeron
Verdun	37	31	12	11	6			Henri-Francois Gautrin
Viau	46	21	15	11	5			Emmanuel Dubourg
Vimont	38	29	27	5	2			Jean Rousselle
Westmount—Saint-Louis	62	5	12	9	8			Jacques Chagnon

Projection chart:

Quebec 2012 election prediction map (August 3 edition)

Current prediction map

On Wednesday, Quebec Premier Jean Charest dropped the writs for the 40^th Quebec provincial election which will be held on September 4^th. Charest called the election to deal with the student protests that have crippled the province over the last few month. He is hoping on the votes of the “silent majority” of Quebeckers who oppose the student strikes- but have not been as loud as the students.

While public opinion may not be behind the students, it is not behind Jean Charest either. Most polls show Charest's Liberals neck and neck with the Parti Quebecois (PQ) in the low-30s. The PQ is struggling in their own right, but a tied election means more seats for them, due to having their support more spread out across the province. Both parties are being challenged by a new party, the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) which at one point in late 2011 topped the polls, but are now languishing in third place at around 20%. The CAQ will be the real wild card in this election. The party is generally centre-right and are only soft separatists. The party is in many ways the successor of the ADQ which voted to merge into the CAQ at the end of 2011.

My first prediction of the campaign will just be in map form. Further detailed analysis will come in later posts, but since I'm heading off to the cottage for the weekend, I figured I should get something up before I go. When I made the map, I only used a simple uniform swing model for each region of the province using the most recent Leger poll. I do not intend to just use a uniform swing model though, as you will note I have tried to avoid in the past. Though, Quebec more than any other province is the most “uniform” in its vote swings between elections.

If you have any comments about how you think a riding will go, please email me or comment on this post explaining why you think so. Viewer feedback is key in making accurate predictions. Even though it didn't go so well for the Alberta election a few months ago.

The projected seat totals based on my first prediction map show a very close race, but with the PQ ahead. It's still anyone's game as there are 33 seats that my projection shows as having the two leading parties within 5% of each other (I will narrow this down to 3% in future predictions):

Party	Projected seat total
Parti Quebecois	48
Liberal	37
Coalition Avenir Quebec	6
Quebec Solidaire	1
Too close to call	33