Today, there are
three provincial by-elections being held in Nova Scotia following the
death of one Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) and the
resignation of two others. These by-elections are the first electoral
test of the new Liberal government in the province which was just
swept to power in the 2013 provincial elections. The Liberals, under
Premier Stephen McNeil, have enjoyed an elongated honeymoon since
those elections, and have been polling at or above 50% ever since.
However, the most recent budget in the province was seen as
unpopular, which has resulted in the Liberals polling at “just”
50% in the most recent Corporate Research Associates poll released
last month.
Two of the three
by-elections are being held on Cape Breton Island, in the ridings of
Cape Breton Centre and neighbouring Sydney-Whitney Pier. Both ridings
elected New Democrats in 2013, two of just seven seats the party won
in the election that saw the New Democratic Party swept from
government into third place in the legislature. While this part of
Cape Breton has a long history of sending New Democrats to the
legislature, the party was likely buoyed the popularity of the two
incumbents in those ridings; Frank Corbett in Cape Breton Centre and
Gordie Gosse in Sydney-Whitney Pier. Both men were narrowly
re-elected in the 2013 election after winning in landslide elections
in the previous election in 2009. The third by-election is being held
in Dartmouth South, and was triggered by the death of its MLA, Allan
Rowe who was just elected for the first time in 2013.
Cape Breton Centre
Geography
Cape Breton Centre is named for its central location within the Cape
Breton Regional Municipality (CBRM), formerly Cape Breton County. It
sits between the two main hubs of the CBRM: Sydney on the southwest
and Glace Bay on the east. The riding is bounded on the north by the
Atlantic Ocean and on the west by Sydney Harbour. The southern
boundary follows an irregular line south of the communities along
Highway 4. About two-fifths of the riding lives in the largest
community in the riding, New Waterford, which is situated on the
Atlantic Coast. New Waterford was formerly an incorporated town
before the amalgamation of Cape Breton County into the CBRM in 1995.
The riding is home to one more formerly incorporated town, Dominion,
which is located on the eastern border of the riding on Indian Bay.
Cape Breton Centre is a riding that has been in a steady economic
decline since the 1960s. The riding is marked by its coal mining
history, which can be recalled by some of the community names in the
riding like “Reserve Mines”, “Gardiner Mines” and “Victoria
Mines”. However, the last mine closed in the riding about 15 years
ago. Much of the younger people in the riding have left for better
economic prospects, leaving behind an older population (the median
age of New Waterford is 48).
Owing to the coal mining industry in this riding, the NDP, and its
predecessor the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (CCF), has a
long history of winning here. It was occasionally the only riding in
the entire province to vote NDP. It first voted CCF in 1939, and was
represented by them and the NDP until 1963. The riding again voted
NDP for a time in the 1970s and has been represented by Frank
Corbett's since 1998. The Tories last held the riding in the 1980s,
while the Liberals last held the riding from 1988 to 1998. Since
1990, most of the races in this district were between the Liberals
and the NDP, except for when the Tories placed second in 2006, thanks
to their leader at the time being from Cape Breton. When the NDP
formed government in 2009, Corbett won the seat in a landslide,
winning 80% of the vote. The NDP government proved to be very
unpopular in the province, which nearly forced Corbett from office.
However, he managed to retain the seat in 2013, defeating his Liberal
opponent by just 138 votes.
MLAs (since 1925):
G.S. Harrington & Jos. MacDonald, Lib.-Cons. (1925-1933) [dual
member district]
M. Dwyer, Liberal (1933-1939)
D. MacDonald, CCF (1939-1945)
M.J. MacDonald, CCF/NDP (1945-1963)
M.A. Laffin, Prog. Cons. (1963-1974)
J. MacEachern, NDP (1974-1981)
M.A.
Lafflin, Prog. Cons. (1981-1988) 2nd
time
J.W. Connors, Liberal (1988-1989)
R.F. MacNeil, Liberal (1989-1998)
F. Corbett, NDP (1998-2015)
Political geography
The 2013 election saw a close race between the Liberals and NDP. In
most communities, neither party won a majority of the vote. Only in
Grand Lake Road, in the far south of the riding did either of the
parties do so, with the Liberals winning 52.5% of the vote there. The
NDP's best community was South Bar, on the west coast of the riding,
where they won 49.5% of the vote. The riding's largest community,
New Waterford was near evenly split, with its west side backing the
Liberal candidate, and the east side backing the NDP. In 2013, the
Liberals tended to do better in the south of the riding, which had
been redistributed into the riding prior to the election from Cape
Breton Nova. People there may have been less familiar with the NDP
incumbent, and were therefore may have been more likely to back the
Liberals. However, South Bar was also redistributed into the riding,
and was the NDP's best community in the riding. In 2009, the NDP
swept every single poll in the riding, including the polls that were
in Cape Breton Nova at the time.
 |
| 2013 election results by community |
Federally, Cape Breton Centre is split between the ridings of Sydney—Victoria (New Waterford area) and Cape Breton—Canso (Dominion area). While both ridings have been held by the Liberals since 2000, the NDP has enjoyed some success in the Cape Breton Centre area. The New Democrats routinely win a number of polls in New Waterford, and sometimes win outside the community as well. However, the Liberals usually win most of the polls in the region. In 2011, the Conservatives were competitive in Sydney—Victoria, and for the first time since their merger, won a handful of polls in Cape Breton Centre, specifically in the New Waterford area.
Outlook
The NDP has been without an official leader since former Premier
Darrell Dexter resigned following the 2013 election loss. Since then,
the party has been led Maureen MacDonald. The currently leaderless
NDP is polling at about the same percentage as what they won in 2013,
while the Liberals are polling slightly higher, but are trending
downwards since the unpopular budget came out. Federally, the
Liberals are polling quite well in Nova Scotia, but are now trending
downward, while the NDP is trending up. Polling alone paints a close
race in this seat, which means it will come down to who the
candidates are. While Corbett was able to get re-elected in 2013
thanks to his personal popularity, the NDP does have historical
strength in this seat, which may give them somewhat of an advantage.
Running for the NDP is administrative support employee Tammy Martin,
while the Liberals are running businessman David Wilton who ran
against Corbett in 2013. The Tory sacrificial lamb is Edna Lee, who
also ran in 2013, winning just 11% of the vote. While the NDP may
still win the seat due to their history in the area, the Liberals
probably have the edge in the district, as the government still
remains somewhat popular, while the NDP is still rebuilding from
their 2013 defeat. Wilton only needs a 1.05% two-party swing to gain
this seat for the Liberals.
Dartmouth South
Geography
This riding contains the southern end of Dartmouth, located across
Halifax Harbour from the provincial capital of Halifax. The riding
contains Dartmouth's downtown in the north of the riding and extends
north to Lake Banook, and is bounded on the northeast and south by
the Circumferential Highway and on the west by Halifax Harbour. The
riding extends beyond the Circumferential Highway to Morris Lake in
the east to, adding in the neighbourhoods around Russell Lake. Not
only does the riding contain Dartmouth's downtown, but it includes
Dartmouth's southern suburbs like Southdale and Grahams Corner. Like
most of Dartmouth, the riding is home to a number of lakes. In
addition to the aforementioned lakes, it also includes Penhorn Lake,
Oat Hill Lake and Maynard Lake. The entirety of the riding is located
in the former city of Dartmouth, which amalgamated with the rest of
Halifax County to form the Halifax Regional Municipality in 1996.
History
Dartmouth South has been won by all three parties in recent
elections. The Liberals won it back for the first time in 19 years in
1993, but they lost the seat in the 1998 election to the NDP, when
the NDP tied the Liberals in the province-wide seat count. However,
the NDP only held it for a year, when the Tories picked it up in the
1999 provincial election. The Tories only held it for one term until
the New Democrats took it back in 2003 (under the new riding name of
“Dartmouth South-Portland Valley”), and held it until the
Liberals swept back to power in 2013. The Tories have not been
competitive here since they lost the seat in 2006. In 2009, the NDP's
Marilyn More won the seat easily over her Liberal opponent. She did
not run again in 2013, and the Liberals' Allan Rowe defeated the NDP
candidate by 1100 votes. This may not have been a horrible showing
for the NDP in a riding with no incumbent in an election where they
were decimated.
The riding was known as Dartmouth South-Portland Valley for the 2003,
2006 and 2009 elections. Owing to population growth in the riding
thanks to new condo developments, the riding shrunk prior to the 2013
election (losing the Portland Hills area), and was re-named Dartmouth
South.
MLAs (since 1933)
Halifax East
G.W. Stevens, Liberal (1933-1956)
Halifax County Dartmouth
G.W.
Stevens, Liberal (1956-1960) continued
G.L.S. Hart, Liberal (1960-1963)
I.W. Akerley, Prog. Cons. (1963-1967)
Dartmouth
South
I.W. Akerley, Prog. Cons. (1967-1970) continued
I.W. Akerley, Prog. Cons. (1967-1970) continued
D.S. MacNutt, Liberal (1970-1974)
R.J. Thornhill, Prog. Cons. (1974-1993)
J.P. Savage, Liberal (1993-1998)
D. Chard, NDP (1998-1999)
T.A. Olive, Prog. Cons. (1999-2003)
Dartmouth South-Portland Valley
Ms. Marilyn More, NDP (2003-2013)
Dartmouth South
A. Rowe, Liberal (2013-2015)
Political geography
In the 2013 election, the Liberals won most of the riding, except for
parts of Dartmouth's Downtown. However, they were only able to win a
majority of the vote in one neighbourhood, the upper middle class
area of Manor Park, which is the residential area between Penhorn
Lake and Oat Hill Lake. The NDP only won one neighbourhood in the
riding, that of Austenville, an area adjacent to the Downtown. There,
they also won over 50% of the vote. The Tories did not win any polls,
but they did finish ahead of the NDP in two neighbourhoods: Portland
Estates and Russell Lake West. These two neighbourhoods surround
Russell Lake, in the eastern part of the district. In 2009, the NDP
swept all but two of the Dartmouth South polls, with the Liberals
winning the two polls in Manor Park.
 |
| 2013 election results by neighbourhood |
Federally, Dartmouth South is located in the riding of Dartmouth—Cole
Harbour, which was won by the NDP's Robert Chisholm for the first
time in 2011. Chisholm won most of the polls in Dartmouth South, but
the Liberals did win in Grahams Corner, Manor Park and the area
around Russell Lake. The Conservatives also won a poll near Russell
Lake. Before Chisholm was elected, the Liberals held Dartmouth—Cole
Harbour from 2004 to 2011. During this period they would typically
win the neighbourhoods of Grahams Corner, Manor Park and the Russell
Park area, while the NDP would win Southdale, Woodside North and
parts of the Downtown.
Outlook
Running for the Liberals in Dartmouth South is Tim Rissesco, the
executive director of the Downtown Dartmouth Business Commission. The
NDP is running Marian Mancini, a retired legal aid lawyer and wife of
former Sydney—Victoria MP Peter Mancini. The Tories are running
their 2013 candidate again, businessman Gord Gamble. There is also an independent running, Charlene Gagnon an operations director.
With their 13-point win in 2013, the Liberals have to have the edge
in winning the by-election in Dartmouth South. The NDP may put up a
fight here, as it is a seat they have won before, but will need a
strong ground game to make it close. Additionally, a collapsed PC
vote will likely act to benefit the Liberals as the Tories did manage
to win 18% of the vote here in 2013, and are unlikely to replicate
that number. The NDP would need about a 7% two-party swing from the
Liberals to take this seat, which is probably out of range given
current polling numbers.
Sydney-Whitney Pier
Geography
Back on Cape Breton Island is the riding of Sidney-Whitney Pier,
located adjacent to Cape Breton Centre. Sydney-Whitney Pier covers
most of the community of Sydney, the largest population centre in the
Cape Breton Regional Municipality. Sydney was an incorporated city
until Cape Breton's amalgamation in 1995. Sydney-Whitney Pier also
includes the small Membertou Mi'kmaq First Nation in the southeast
corner of the riding. The riding name includes the community of
Whitney Pier, which is still technically part of Sydney, but is
separated from the rest of the community by Muggah Creek, a former
site of a steel mill and the former site of Sydney's infamous Tar
Ponds. In addition to Whitney Pier, the riding also includes the
Sydney neighbourhoods of Ashby, Hardwood Hill, and the city's
downtown.
History
Sydney has historically been divided between the ridings of Cape
Breton Nova and Cape Breton South. The 2012 redistribution saw the
redrawing of Cape Breton's ridings, and the doing away (except for
Cape Breton Centre) with the vaguely named directionally named
ridings in the region. Before the creation of Sydney-Whitney Pier,
Sydney's downtown, south end and Hardwood Hill neighbourhood was in
the riding of Cape Breton South, while Ashby and Whitney Pier were in
oddly-named Cape Breton Nova riding. With the redistribution, a
majority of both ridings would come to form the new Sydney-Whitney
Pier riding, though more of Cape Breton Nova became Sydney-Whitney
Pier.
From 1970 to 2003, Cape Breton Nova was the personal fiefdom of Paul
MacEwan. He was first elected as a New Democrat in 1970 before
forming the Cape Breton Labour Party and then eventually becoming a
Liberal. In between parties, he served and was elected as an
independent. No matter what his banner was, he continued to get
re-elected in each election he ran in. He finally retired in 2003
when Gordie Gosse was first elected for the NDP, defeating the second
place Liberal candidate by just 74 votes. Gosse was re-elected easily
in 2006 and 2009. In 2013, he ran in Sydney-Whitney Pier in a
close-ish race in which he defeated the Liberal candidate by over 500
votes. Meanwhile, Cape Breton South has been a reliable Liberal
riding. The grits held the seat continuously between 1974 and 2013.
Its last MLA, Manning MacDonald chose not to run in 2013. If he had,
he could have made a race against Gosse much closer in the new
riding.
Today, Sydney is trying to rebound from its industrial past, when it
was a major steel and coal mining centre. The city has seen a
population decline since the 1960s, and is suffering from the closing
of its last steel mills and coal mines over a decade ago. Today, with
the tar sands cleared up, the city is focusing more on tourism. Most
people in the community work in the service and trade sectors.
MLAs (since 1933)
Cape Breton South
Prior to 1956, Cape Breton South covered all of Sydney. Cape Breton
Nova would be created out of it in 1956.
G.S. Harrington, Cons. (1933-1937)
G.S. Harrington, Cons. (1933-1937)
G.M. Morrison, Liberal (1937-1941)
D. MacDonald, CCF (1941-1945)
J.S. MacIvor, Liberal (1945-1956)
D.C. MacNeil, Prog. Cons. (1956-1970)
J.F. Burke, Prog. Cons. (1970-1974)
V.J. MacLean, Liberal (1974-1993)
Manning MacDonald, Liberal (1993-2013)
Cape Breton Nova
Percy Gaum, Prog. Cons. (1956-1970)
Paul MacEwan, NDP (1970-1980); Ind. (1980-1982); C.B. Labour
(1982-1984); Ind. (1984-1990); Liberal (1990-2003)
G.L. Gosse, Jr., NDP (2003-2013)
Sydney-Whitney Pier
G.L. Gosse, Jr., NDP (2013-2015) continued
Political geography
Just from looking at the 2013 polling division map, you can tell
where the former riding boundary between Cape Breton South and Cape
Breton Nova was. The NDP's Gordie Gosse raked in large margins in the
northern half of the riding, which was in his former district of Cape
Breton Nova. He did especially well in his home community of Whitney
Pier, where the won 75% of the vote, the strongest vote share for the
NDP in any community. Meanwhile, the Liberals won the southern part
of the riding which was in the Liberal-held riding of Cape Breton
South. The strongest community for the Liberals was the Membertou
First Nation, where they won 71% of the vote. In 2009, all of the
Cape Breton Nova polls went NDP, while the Cape Breton South polls
were more split between the Liberals and NDP. The NDP candidate
actually won the Membertou First Nation and a cluster of polls in
central Sydney, while the Liberals won much of the rest of the city.
 |
| 2013 election results by neighbourhood |
Federally, Sydney-Whitney Pier is in the riding of Sydney—Victoria, which has been has been held by Liberal MP Mark Eyking since 2000. The north-south divide is not just evident in provincial politics, and not just because of the former riding boundaries; it exists federally as well. Whitney Pier routinely backs NDP candidates, while the rest of Sydney usually backs Eyking. In 2011, the Conservatives won their first polls in Sydney, winning two in the south end, thanks to the strong candidacy of former MLA Cecil Clarke.
Outlook
Gosse's popularity is quite evident if you look at the relatively low
swing against him in 2013. The two-party swing between the 2009
transposed results and the 2013 election was just 7% to the Liberals,
while province wide it was more than double this (18%). Without Gosse
on the ballot, it will be much harder for the NDP to retain this
seat.
The NDP candidate in Sydney-Whitney Pier is Madonna Doucette, the
LGBT resource co-ordinator for the AIDS Coalition of Cape Breton.
Former regional councillor Derek Mombourquette is once again the
Liberal candidate, having previously run in 2013. Cape Breton
Business College owner Brian MacArthur is the Tory candidate.
Mombourquette will only need a three point two-party swing from the
NDP to win this district, which will not be insurmountable given
recent polling, and without Gosse on the ballot. He has already run
in this district, and already has experience as a politician. He may
be helped by the fact that the NDP is running an activist in a riding
that has more blue collar-roots. Based on math alone though, this
seat is the most likely to be retained by the NDP, given the 5 point
margin that Gosse won by in 2013.
For the NDP, it will be a big blow to lose any of their two Cape
Breton seats. It will mean an even more decimated caucus, as they
would be down to just five seats from the seven they won in 2013.
Given the lower expectations, just holding both of them would be a
win for the Dippers. For the Liberals, a win would be picking up
either Cape Breton seat. In contrast, if they were to somehow lose
Dartmouth South, it would be devastating for the Grits. And for the
Tories, they really should have low expectations tonight. Their vote
shares will likely go down in all three seats, so a win might be
increasing their vote share in any seat.
As by-elections go, tonight should be an exciting night, with
potentially three close races to watch. It will certainly be
interesting to see what the pulse of Nova Scotia is at right now, so
close to a federal election where there may be many Liberal vs. NDP
races in the province. Also, turnout will be interesting to see,
given how we are essentially in the middle of the summer. We'll see
how it all shakes out when polls close at 8pm Atlantic (7pm Eastern).
