Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election, 2011 - Results and analysis

Results by riding

Newfoundlanders and Labradorians went to the polls last month to elect their 47^th House of Assembly. The race would be a foregone conclusion from the offset, but despite that where the chips were to lie was harder to predict.

Going into the election, the Tories had a large lead in the polls, so it was obvious they were headed towards a majority government. However, the real question was who was going to form the Official Opposition. The NDP consistently polled in 2^nd place, but having never formed the Official Opposition before, and only being strong in a small number of ridings, it was hard to predict whether they would be able to translate this support into seats. And the Liberals, traditionally the governing party in the province were polling in third place. Would they be able to hold on to their seats to form the Official Opposition?

When the ballots were counted, the Tories, under leader Kathy Dunderdale did indeed win a majority government. She became the first woman leader to win an election in the province's history. The party won 56% of the vote, winning 37 of the province's 48 seats. While rare in Canadian elections, this majority of votes the Tories won in was actually a large decrease from the 69% (a record in Canada) the party won under Premier Danny Williams 4 years before. While the NDP won the 2^nd most amount of votes (25%), they were not able to concentrate their support in enough seats to form the Official Opposition. They did win an historic 5 seats, but the Liberals were more efficient with their votes, getting the remaining 6 seats with just 19% of the vote. The Liberals actually doubled their seat totals from 2007, despite winning less votes province-wide.

Party	Leader	Seats	Votes	%
Progressive Conservative	Kathy Dunderdale	37	124523	56.1
Liberal	Kevin Aylward	6	42411	19.1
N.D.P.	Lorraine Michael	5	54713	24.6
Independents	-	0	430	0.2

In the end, the polls were semi-accurate. The final three polls released before the election showed the Tories in the mid to high 50s, which is what they got. They did overestimate the NDP substantially however. Two polls had them winning 33%. Corporate Research was right on money though, giving the New Democrats 25%. Meanwhile, the Liberals did much better than the polls suggested. Polls pegged them in the mid-teens, but they ended up at 19%. Perhaps at the last minute, voters switched from the NDP to the Liberals?

The election showed an obvious east-west divide in the province- at least when it comes to which opposition party is favoured. The east liked the NDP second best, and is where 3 of the party's new 4 seats came from (all in St. John's actually). Four of the party's 5 seats were won in the St. John's area. The Liberals however were 2^nd best in the west, where they picked up 2 new seats. Four of their six seats were won on the west coast of the province, and the other 2 were won in Labrador, an area with less voters per seat. While the Liberals did better than expected, their leader, Kevin Aylard did lose the seat he was running in.

Where I went wrong

Due to the fact that the NDP was in uncharted territory in this election, because it had never received even close to a quarter of the votes before, this election was hard to predict. Also throw in the fact the Liberals did better than expected. I'm glad I did do some reading up on the election though, to see where the NDP's best chances were, as it helped my final prediction. I did get 8 seats wrong, meaning my accuracy was only 83%. This was my worst prediction of all the provincial elections this Fall. Here are the seats that I got wrong:

Bay of Islands

2011 was a rematch in this riding from the previous election. Former MHA Eddie Joyce of the Liberals was once again up against incumbent Terry Loder of the Tories. Only 400 votes separated them in the last election. Joyce represented this seat for 9 years before being defeated by Loder in 2007. I figured with the Liberals down, they would lose this seat again, but the Liberals won the riding back by over 700 votes. Bay of Islands is just one example of the Liberals bouncing back on the west coast of the rock. I was off an average of 11% per party with my prediction in this riding.

Burin-Placentia West

This riding may not be traditional NDP territory, but the NDP's candidate Julie Mitchell did very well here in the 2007 election, where she won a third of the vote. It was expected to be another close race, as she faced Fisheries Minister Clyde Jackman once again. In the end, Jackman was able to hold on to his seat, defeating Mitchell by just 40 votes. I predicted a very close race here, and I was at least right on that (I had Mitchell winning by 1%). Despite not calling the right winner here, I was so close with my numbers, that I was off of an average of less than 1% per party.

Humber Valley

Another west coast rematch I got wrong was in Humber Valley. Tory MHA Darryl Kelly was running against former Liberal MHA Dwight Ball whom he defeated in 2007. In fact, this was the third meeting between these two candidates, as Ball had beaten Kelly a few months earlier in a by-election. The race in 2007 was close, with Kelly winning by just 300 votes. I was expecting another close race, but with Kelly winning again with the same margin. The race was indeed close, but it was Ball who won- by just 68 votes. I was close with my numbers, being off by an average of just 2% per party.

Labrador West

Historically, the NDP's second best riding in the province has been in Labrador West. So, with the party being at an historic high, it only made sense that the NDP would win this seat, right? Wrong. Despite doing well in this part of Labrador federally, the provincial party selected a weak candidate in this riding to go against Labrador City councillor Nick McGrath. I figured this was a sure bet for the NDP, due to its high polling, history in this riding and the fact that it was an open seat. I was so sure they'd win, that I gave the NDP candidate a 29% lead. Oops. This was a huge blunder on my part. I was off by an average of over 20% per party here! (including off by 30% for the NDP).

St. Barbe

St. Barbe featured another rematch of 2007. This time however, the Liberal candidate, Jim Bennett, was not a former MHA, weakening his chances of picking off the Tory incumbent. That incumbent was Tory MHA Wallace Young who has represented this seat for ten years. He defeated Bennett easily in 2007. However St. Barbe is a traditional Liberal seat, having only elected Tories for a total of 7 (or 15, depending on what part of the riding you're in) years since confederation before Young's 2001 victory. The race was another squeaker, Bennett would win by just 38 votes. I predicted Young to win by 9 points. I was off by an average of 5% per party.

St. John's East

The St. John's area is a loyal area for the Tories, but the NDP made a breakthrough in 2011. While I got two neighbouring ridings correct in predicting NDP pickups, I was not so keen on this seat. St. John's East has elected Tories for all but 10 years since confederation. Tory incumbent Ed Buckingham received 70% of the vote in 2007. Was it so far fetched to say he'd win it again? In the end however, it wasn't that particularly close. The NDP candidate, George Murphy won by nearly 600 votes. I did predict the NDP to do well here of course, predicting they would lose by 4%. They won however by 11%. I would be off by an average of 5% per party here.

The Straits – White Bay North

Perhaps the biggest surprise on election night was here, on the northern tip of Newfoundland. In area that has been trending Liberal in surrounding ridings chose a different opposition party to represent it in St. John's. The NDP, which has no history here ran a strong candidate in businessman Chris Mitchelmore who won the seat in a close 3-way race by 210 votes, edging out the incumbent MHA, Marhsall Dean of the Liberals. This was a big surprise, especially considering the two neighbouring ridings switched from the Tories to the Liberals, yet this Liberal incumbent wasn't able to hold on? What makes it more surprising is that the Liberals have held this seat for all but 8 years since confederation. I don't remember reading about the NDP prospects in this riding, so I ended up predicting a Liberal victory, with the NDP in third. My near correct prediction for the Tory vote here saved me, and I was only off by an average of 5-6% per party here.

Torngat Mountains

Finally, we go to the most northerly riding in the province in the Torngat Mountains. This Innu-dominated riding votes more for the candidate I assume, then party. After all, it was this part of Labrador that helped the federal Conservatives win the region with Innu leader Peter Penashue. Would it not make sense then to suggest the provincial Tories would also win this riding, especially because they were the incumbent party? Well, no. Tory MHA Patty Pottle, who won this seat by just 76 votes in 2007 went down in defeat to the Liberal candidate, Randy Edmunds. She lost by over 10% of the vote, or 150 votes in this sparsely populated riding. I was off by an average of 8% per party. 

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Change maps (2007-2011)

PC vote change (2007-2011)

Tory change

With the loss in support for the Progressive Conservatives in Newfoundland, we see a mostly red map. These are the seats where the party lost votes. Most striking are the St. John's area ridings where they lost a lot of votes to the NDP. There were a handful of seats the Tories were able to increase their support in interestingly. The most notable was in the Isles of Notre Dame, where the Tories saw a gain of 17% between the two elections. I suppose voters didn't take well to the Liberal candidate being a carpetbagging former MHA from Labrador. The Tories also increased their support in the impoverished southern coast of the province, and in Labrador West, again due to a carpetbagging- this time NDP candidate.

Liberal vote change (2007-2011)

Liberal change

The Liberal vote change map is more of a mixed bag of green and red. The Liberal vote did go down in 2011, but their seat total was doubled. This is evident in the map. As you can see, their vote totals went down in almost every St. John's area seat, but their votes went up in the western part of the province. These western seats were marginal in 2007, and therefore these gains allowed the Liberals to pick up their new seats. The seat the Liberals lost the most support in was the Isles of Notre Dame (carpetbagging candidate). Their seat where they increased the most was in Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans where their 2007 candidate received just 4% of the vote. 

NDP vote change (2007-2011)

NDP change

The NDP saw their best election in provincial history in 2011, so it makes sense that their change map would be mostly green- for gains. In fact, the NDP lost support in just two ridings- in Labrador West where they ran an out of town candidate, and in Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans where they were not able to replicate a good result from 2007. There is lots of green on this map, the darkest shades coming from the St. John's area where the party picked up three seats off of massive swings from the Tories. Another large swing came in the riding of The Straits-White Bay North, another pick up for the party. 

British Columbia municipal elections: preview

Saturday, voters in BC will get to go to the polls to elect their local councils. Voters in BC's 160 municipalities will get to vote for mayor and council, while rural British Columbians will be able to vote for their "Electoral Area Director", a seat on their local regional district council. There's also referenda, and "down ballot" races, typical of municipal elections. There are school trustee races, and park boards for example.

The most notable race in BC of course will be for mayor of Vancouver. What I like about Vancouver- and a few other municipalities in the province- is that their races are partisan. There are municipal parties in the city. Vancouver has two main parties, the governing left of centre "Vision Vancouver", led by mayor Gregor Robertson. In opposition is the right of centre "Non Partisan Association" (NPA). They are running councillor Suzanne Anton against him. There are also ten other candidates running for the position.

On council, there is a third party, the "Coalition of Progressive Electors" (COPE), which has an electoral alliance with Vision Vancouver. They are to the left of VV, and are running three candidates for council, while VV is running 7. COPE currently holds 2 council seats. The NPA meanwhile is running a full slate of 10 candidates. It should be noted that Vancouver City Council is elected on an at-large basis. There are no municipal wards in the city. In fact, it is the largest city in Canada with no ward system. Voters get a long list of candidates of which they get to vote for up to 10. When you get partisan races with this system, even the closest of elections results in lopsided results. The NPA for example, holds just 1 seat on Vancouver City Council, despite its mayoral candidate getting nearly 40% of the vote in the last election in 2008.


Out here in Ottawa, the biggest news I've heard about the campaign in Vancouver is how the city shut down the Occupy Vancouver protest. The question is, how will this effect the mayoral campaign of a left wing mayor? Will it alienate his base? We will find out on Saturday. Polls so far have suggested that while Robertson has handled the Occupy protests poorly, he still holds on to the lead. The most recent polls that I could find suggests he is leading 49-43 (and it was an NPA internal poll).

Robertson won  54% of support among Vancouver voters. His main opponent, Peter Ladner of the NPA received 39%. On city council, COPE ran 2 candidates while Vision Vancouver ran 8 candidates as part of their pact. Both COPE candidates were elected. The last place candidate for Vision Vancouver was the only candidate to lose. The only NPA candidate to win a seat was Suzanne Anton, who is their candidate for mayor this year. Her personal popularity allowed her to win more votes than 2 Vision candidates and one COPE candidate. The next highest NPA candidate was just 1500 votes shy of eclipsing the 10th place candidate, represented by the COPE. 

2008 mayoral election by poll

2008 council election by poll (leading candidate)

In 2008, as you can see by the maps, if Vancouver was divided by ward, it is likely the split on council would be more like 6-4 for the Vision Vancouver-COPE alliance. After all, the city is represented by 10 MLAs in the provincial legislature, and there is presently an even split in the city between the NDP (5 seats) and the BC Liberals (5 seats). If those 10 ridings were used as municipal wards, there would be a similar close race in the city. Not the 9-1 landslide that happened in actual fact. Of course this archaic system is enjoyed by the voters however, as they voted to keep the system in a referendum in 2004. It was however close (54-46 against introducing municipal wards), and it was in an off year for elections and was therefore marred by low voter turnout.

From the maps, it is evident that support for Vision Vancouver is concentrated in the east end of the city, which tends to be more working class. The party also has support from some of the "champagne socialists" living in the condos of downtown, but some of these downtown dwellers support the NPA. The NPA strongholds are in the more affluent west end of the city. The true battlegrounds are in the central part of the city and in the south end. These are the battlegrounds in provincial elections as well, between the NDP and the BC Liberals. 

Most, if not all municipalities in BC use an at large voting system to elect their councils. Only a few have municipal parties however. In British Columbia's second largest city of Surrey, the right of centre "Surrey First" party, led by mayor Dianne Watts presently holds 7 of 8 council seats. The opposition party, the Surrey Civic Coallition (SCC) holds just one seat. They will not be running a challenger against Watts, but they will run a full slate of candidates for council. The SCC did not run a candidate against Watts in 2008 either.

In BC's third largest city of Burnaby, the left of centre "Burnaby Citizens Association" (BCA) hold all 8 council seats, plus the mayor of the city, Derek Corrigan. They are being opposed by the right of centre TEAM Burnaby, who is running Tom Tao for mayor. They will be running a full slate of candidates to oppose Corrigan's BCA. Corrigan received 67% of the vote in 2008, which helped his party win all 8 seats on council. TEAM Burnaby's top candidate received 2000 less votes than the 8th place BCA candidate, shutting them out.

Most of the other municipalities in BC do not have political parties. The few that do tend to have just one political party, either one representing the governing party, or one representing an opposition party against a band of independents. 

A lack of municipal wards in BC means a lack of maps, unfortunately. From the 2008 election, I was only able to find a poll map of Vancouver, which I used in this post. I will however have a map of all of BC's municipalities showing the mayoral results, much like I used for NWT's non partisan legislative election in October.

Ontario 2011 election results - analysis

Results map of the 2011 Ontario election by riding. 

Ontarians went to the poll last month, and now I've finally been able to post my official post-election analysis. Ontarians elected their first minority government in 26 years, with the Liberal Party winning a plurality of seats at 53, one shy of a majority. The Tories will remain the official opposition, increasing their seat count to 37, and the N.D.P. also increased their seat count, to 17.

Party	Leader	Seats	Votes	%
Liberal	Dalton McGuinty	53	1622426	37.6
Progressive Conservative	Tim Hudak	37	1527959	35.4
N.D.P.	Andrea Horwath	17	980204	22.7
Green	Mike Schreiner	0	126567	2.9
Libertarian	Sam Apelbaum	0	19387	0.4
Family Coalition	Phil Lees	0	9861	0.2
Freedom	Paul McKeever	0	9285	0.2
Communist	Elizabeth Rowley	0	1163	0
Northern Ontario Heritage	Edward Deibel	0	683	0
Special Needs	Danish Ahmed	0	667	0
Reform	Bradley J. Harness	0	645	0
Confederation of Regions	-	0	559	0
Paramount Canadians	Ranvir Dogra	0	548	0
People's Political Party	Kevin Clarke	0	386	0
Socialist	Andy Lehrer	0	369	0
Vegan Environmental	Paul Figueiras	0	366	0
Republican	Trueman Tuck	0	232	0
The Only Party	Michael Green	0	188	0
Human Rights	Marilyn McCormick	0	170	0
Canadians' Choice	Bahman Yazdanfar	0	156	0
Pauper Party	John C. Turmel	0	140	0

The Liberals lost 18 seats that they had won in 2007. The Tories picked up 11 of these, and the NDP picked up 7. The Liberals went down 4.6% in the popular vote. Both the Tories and the N.D.P. gained, 3.8% and 6.0% respectively. It was the NDP's best election since forming government in 1990. The Greens meanwhile lost much of their support, and were down 5.1% from from their best result in 2007.

Much of the Liberal loss came from rural Ontario, which swung heavily to the Tories. They were able to hold onto their urban seats though, something the federal Liberals had trouble doing in May.

The polls for the most part were fairly accurate. Forum Research was almost right on the money, giving the Liberals 37%, the Tories 36%, the NDP with 23% and the Greens at 3%. All the other pollsters were within the margin of error.

Where I went wrong

Overall, I did quite well with the results in Ontario. I did overestimate the Tories and underestimate the Liberals, however. I posted my predictions before some of the final polls came out, and that can be blamed for that. However, other predictors went the other way, and predicted the Liberals would get a majority. I was certainly benefited from receiving the riding by riding results of Forum Research's mega survey done during the campaign, which I may have relied on too heavily, but wasn't too far off the mark in some races. Overall I just got 9 ridings wrong, or just 8% of the seats. From browsing other predictor websites, it was tied for the most accurate prediction (with electionpredictions.org).

Brant

Brant was one of those races that if I took into some of the final polls to be released into consideration, I may have flipped. The Liberals held on to this seat by 1000 votes. While much of the riding is rural, its main centre of Brantford kept the riding from being swept up in the Tories' rural sweep of the province. Perhaps, I was a little too focused on the fact that the Forum Research poll said the Tories would win here. I predicted the Tories would win by 5 points, but the Liberals won by 2. Overall, I was off by an average of 2-3% for each of the major parties.

Essex

Essex was the riding that surprised everyone on election night. The seat was vacated by the retirement of Liberal Bruce Crozier. This meant that this seat was up for grabs. The conventional wisdom thought that because this seat is held by the federal Tories, that their provincial counterparts would win as well. But that was not the case. The N.D.P.'s Tarys Natyshak won in the surprise of the night. I did predict the NDP to do well in Essex, I had them losing the seat by 5%. They won in a close race by just 1400 votes, or 3% ahead of the Tories. Overall, I was off by an average of about 3% per party.

Glengarry—Prescott—Russell

All the signs seemed to point to this rural Francophone Eastern Ontario riding going Tory this election. The Liberals were late in nominating their candidate, and what's worse was they nominated an Anglophone. The federal Conservatives have also held this seat since 2006. I do recall in the Summer predicting this seat going Liberal, but I got an email from someone saying I was dead wrong. I did my homework, and decided I was. The Forum Research poll seemed to agree with me as well. It was a close race though, the Liberals won the seat by 1300 votes. I was off by an average of 3% per major party, but I was really wrong with the Liberal and Tory votes, as I had the Tories winning by 14%!

Kenora—Rainy River

Until now, it seemed to me that no matter how much the NDP improves on its past performances, they always lose a seat or two in the process (e.g. They lost two seats in the federal election). However, that did not happen in this provincial election, even though I was sure it would happen here in Kenora. Firstly, the seat was vacated by former NDP leader Howard Hampton, meaning it was up for grabs. Secondly, the federal NDP has been having trouble in this seat, one of their few hold outs in the region. The seat is held by the Conservatives in Ottawa. That, and the fact that Forum Research agreed that the Tories would win, meant that I was pretty certain the Tories would win here. The NDP did win the seat pretty handily, by 2600 votes and nearly 50% of the vote. I was off by an average of over 5% per party here. That includes a 13% discrepancy for the NDP, which I had losing 44-37.

Ottawa West—Nepean

This is another seat I probably would have flipped had I seen the final polls. It was still a very close race, with the Liberals edging out the Tories by just 1000 votes. It was closer than the by-election held the year prior that made me believe the Tories had a shot here. And of course, Forum Research predicted a Tory victory! (starting to see a trend here?) To my credit, I did have the Tories only winning by 2%- the margin the Liberals won by. I was very close to the actual results, being an average of less than 2% per party.

Perth—Wellington

I thought if the Liberals were to keep one rural seat, it would be this one. After all- you guessed it- Forum Research had them winning it. While I knew the Tories would win most of the rural Liberal seats across the province, I knew it was possible that there may be one or two hold outs due to personal popularity. I thought Liberal MPP John Wilkinson would fit the bill (and I wasn't the only one to think this). To my credit again, it was a close race. The Tories won by just 600 votes. However, that darned Forum Research poll screwed me when it came to my numbers, as I only gave the Tories 27% in the riding. I was off by an average of over 5% per major party, including 14% off of what the Tories got.

Sudbury

Forum Research did I think three riding polls of Sudbury. The final two (at least) showed a close race between the NDP and the Liberals, but both showed the NDP on top. This seemed quite fathomable, as the NDP won a surprise victory here in the 2008 federal election against a popular Liberal incumbent. I had figured a similar scenario was about to occur in this election. The final result did show that the polls were correct in predicting a close race. The Liberals won by just 500 votes. My prediction showed an even closer race, with both parties at 39%. The Liberals got 42, and the NDP got 41%. I was off by an average of less than 2% for each major party.

Thunder Bay—Atikokan

Thunder Bay—Atikokan also had some riding polls that showed the NDP with a narrow lead. It was also the NDP's primary target in the province, having only lost the race the race by 50 votes in 2007. However, they weren't able to win the seat, as the Liberals ended up increasing their margin to 500 votes. I predicted the NDP would win by 3%, with 37%. They actually got 38% of the vote, but the Liberals did much better than I thought, getting 39%. I was off by an average of 3% per party.

York South—Weston

It was round 3 of the Liberals' Laura Albanese against the NDP's Paul Ferreira. The two first duked it out in a by-election in 2007 where Ferreira won by 350 votes. A few months later however, Albanese won in the general election by just 500 votes. It seemed with the NDP polling higher in the province, that it was time for the party to win the seat back. However, the Liberals were polling quite well in Toronto, meaning that this seat would likely be quite close. Polls agreed with that assessment, but the more recent riding polls showed an NDP lead here. And word on the street seemed to agree. However, it was not to be. Albanese increased the difference to 800 votes in her victory. I thought the NDP would win by 4%. I was off by an average just over 2% per party.

Maps!

Liberal % change (2007-2011)

Liberal change 

In this map, red is bad for the Liberals, and there is a lot. Those are the ridings where they lost support. Notice how most of those seats are in rural areas, where the Liberals lost much of their support. They did gain in many ridings though, especially in urban areas like in Ottawa and Toronto. People in Toronto saw what happened with vote splitting in the federal election, and voted Liberal to stop the Tories. There were a few rural gains for the Liberals. In Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound for example, the Liberal vote increased due to the collapse of the Greens. In Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, they benefited from having an incumbent that won in a by-election that they didn't have in 2007. 

Progressive Conservative % change (2007-2011)

Progressive Conservative change

This map is mostly green, because the Tories increased their support in much of the province. The Tories increased their vote especially in rural areas and in Northern Ontario. There's only a few ridings where they lost support. There's Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock of course where they faced a Liberal incumbent they didn't have to in 2007. And of course, there's those smattering of seats in Toronto. Don Valley West is the darkest red, where their former leader, John Tory ran in 2007. Bramalea--Gore--Malton also sticks out, as many Tories voted NDP this election due to the popularity of their candidate, Jagmeet Singh in that riding. 

NDP % change (2007-2011)

NDP change

The NDP map is also fairly green, as they also increased their support across the province. Their best increases came in ridings with strong candidates, like in Essex, Bramalea--Gore--Malton, Niagara Falls, Scarborough--Rouge River, and the leader's seat of Hamilton Centre. The biggest decreases were in the two seats held by popular incumbents who chose to retire. The NDP vote was down big time in Kenora--Rainy River where former leader Howard Hampton retired, and in Welland where Peter Kormos retired. 

Green % change (2007-2011)

Green change

The Green change map is perhaps the most depressing. Not one riding showed an increase in votes for the Greens. Not even their leader could increase the vote % for the party. Some of the party's worst losses in votes came in areas in which they did quite well in 2007. This is most evident in Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound, which was their best seat in 2007. 

Liberal popular vote %

Liberal popular vote map

Liberal vote strength was concentrated in urban parts of the province. Their best seats came mostly in the Greater Toronto Area. They also had strong showings in Thunder Bay, Ottawa, London and Windsor. Their worst seats came in more rural parts of the province, mostly in ridings they did not have incumbents. These include areas like Kenora--Rainy River, Timmins--James Bay, Parry Sound--Muskoka, Haldimand--Norfolk, Leeds--Grenville and Renfew--Nipissing-Pembroke. They also did poorly in Oshawa, the only riding in the GTA that was a Tory-NDP race.

PC popular vote % map

PC popular vote map

Tory support is generally the inverse of the Liberals, with their strengths mostly in  rural Ontario, and weaknesses in urban areas. Except for Kenora--Rainy River and Timmins--James Bay, the Tories are still the third place party in Northern Ontario. Their worst seats came in the most urban parts of the province, like in Ottawa Centre, and downtown Toronto. A belt of ridings beginning in York West, and going south to Lake Ontario and turning east until Beaches--East York was especially an empty zone for the PCs. They also did poorly in Hamilton, where much of the anti-NDP votes went to the Liberals. 

NDP popular vote % map

NDP popular vote map

The NDP had their best ridings in their traditional areas. They did very well in Northern Ontario, where they won 5 ridings. They also did well in Hamilton, where they won all three urban seats, and in that belt of ridings in Toronto, where they won 5 seats, and finished 2nd in the other 3. Of particular note was the party doing quite well in southwestern Ontario. They may have only won 2 ridings, but they did better than average in the other ridings, including the rural races. The weakest NDP ridings were in suburban and exurban Toronto (except for Bramalea-Gore-Malton) and in rural eastern Ontario. 

Green popular vote % map

Green popular vote map

The Greens were reduced to their traditional "Green triangle", in the area northwest of Toronto. These areas are  rural and exurban in nature, but whose agricultural traditions are different from the large farms of southwestern Ontario. These areas are attractive to certain Green-friendly voters. The best riding for the Greens was the exurban riding Dufferin-Caledon, which they also did quite well in the federal election. The worst areas for the Greens were in the more populist rural areas like in Northern Ontario, and in Southwestern Ontario. The Greens also did quite poorly in the inner-suburban GTA. 

Saskatchewan 2011 provincial election final prediction

Click to enlarge

Saskatchewan goes to the polls today, and everything seems to be pointing to a Saskatchewan Party landslide victory. The only question remains- how many seats (if any!!) will the NDP win, and where. It will be a tricky election to predict, because we are charting in uncharted territory for the province. No party has won more than 60% of the popular vote in an election, and all the polls indicate that will happen.

There were two polls released in the last few days. Praxis' last poll has the Sask Party at 67%, and the NDP at just 27%, while Forum Research showed different numbers, giving the Sask Party 62% and the NDP 34%. Forum Research was the more recent poll, and had a higher sample size, so I am looking more at their numbers. Plus, the poll showed regional numbers. The Sask Party is polling in the high 50s both in Saskatoon and Regina. I have factored that into most of my predictions. This is actually a higher swing than in the rural areas, which is bad news for the NDP, as those urban areas are where their seats are at. The swing in Regina in particular is bad news for the NDP, because it would be 16% more for the Sask Party. They could be swept off the map in the city.

Seat by seat predictions:

Riding	SP	NDP	Green	Other	Projected winner
Arm River-Watrous	74	23	3	-	Greg Brkich
Athabasca	45	52	3	-	Buckley Belanger
Batoche	71	26	3	-	Delbert Kirsch
Biggar	69	25	4	2	Randy Weeks
Cannington	85	9	5	1	Dan D'Autremont
Canora-Pelly	76	21	3	-	Ken Krawetz
Carrot River Valley	73	24	3	-	Fred Bradshaw
Cumberland	45	45	4	-	Doyle Vermette
Cut Knife-Turtleford	74	23	3	-	Larry Doke
Cypress Hills	83	13	4	-	Wayne Elhard
Estevan	84	13	3	-	Doreen Eagles
Humboldt	75	22	3	-	Donna Harpauer
Indian Head-Milestone	73	23	4	-	Don McMorris
Kelvington-Wadena	80	16	4	-	June Draude
Kindersley	78	17	5	-	Bill Boyd
Last Mountain-Touchwood	72	23	4	1	Glen Hart
Lloydminster	71	25	4	-	Ted McMillan
Martensville	84	12	4	-	Nancy Heppner
Meadow Lake	65	32	3	-	Jeremy Harrison
Melfort	76	21	3	-	Kevin Phillips
Melville-Saltcoats	71	26	3	-	Bob Bjornerud
Moose Jaw North	58	37	4	1	Warren Michelson
Moose Jaw Wakamow	48	45	5	2	Greg Lawrence
Moosomin	84	12	4	-	Don Toth
Prince Albert Carlton	59	38	3	-	Darryl Hickie
Prince Albert Northcote	50	47	3	-	Victoria Jurgens
Regina Coronation Park	54	43	3	-	Mark Docherty
Regina Dewdney	62	27	3	8	Gene Makowsky
Regina Douglas Park	53	43	4	-	Russ Marchuk
Regina Elphinstone-Centre	45	50	5	-	Warren McCall
Regina Lakeview	54	42	4	-	Bob Hawkins
Regina Northeast	62	34	4	-	Kevin Doherty
Regina Qu'Appelle Valley	65	32	3	0	Laura Ross
Regina Rosemont	57	38	5	-	Tony Fiacco
Regina South	67	30	3	-	Bill Hutchinson
Regina Walsh Acres	57	39	4	-	Warren Steinley
Regina Wascana Plains	75	21	3	1	Christine Tell
Rosetown-Elrose	80	17	3	-	Jim Reiter
Rosthern-Shelbrook	66	30	4	-	Scott Moe
Saskatchewan Rivers	70	26	4	-	Nadine Wilson
Saskatoon Centre	46	50	4	-	David Forbes
Saskatoon Eastview	58	39	3	-	Corey Tochor
Saskatoon Fairview	50	47	3	-	Jennifer Campeau
Saskatoon Greystone	58	26	3	13	Rob Norris
Saskatoon Massey Place	52	45	3	-	Fawad Muzaffar
Saskatoon Meewasin	58	34	5	3	Roger Parent
Saskatoon Northwest	70	25	4	1	Gordon Wyant
Saskatoon Nutana	45	46	5	4	Cathy Sproule
Saskatoon Riversdale	48	49	3	-	Danielle Chartier
Saskatoon Silver Springs	78	16	3	3	Ken Cheveldayoff
Saskatoon Southeast	75	20	3	4	Don Morgan
Saskatoon Sutherland	60	32	4	4	Paul Merriman
Swift Current	82	14	4	-	Brad Wall
The Battlefords	51	38	3	8	Herb Cox
Thunder Creek	78	18	3	-	Lyle Stewart
Weyburn-Big Muddy	75	21	4	-	Dustin Duncan
Wood River	77	19	4	-	Yogi Huyghebaert
Yorkton	67	29	4	-	Greg Ottenbreit

Calling the toss ups

Cumberland

This northern Saskatchewan riding has voted for the NDP and its predecessor, the CCF in every election since 1952. And, the NDP has won this riding with over 60% of the vote in every race since 1982. However, there was a by-election in this seat in 2008, where the NDP won by just 164 votes! That narrow by-election victory is making this race seem difficult to call for the moment. Have things changed in this riding? Well, not necessarily. The federal NDP would have won this seat in the federal election in May, getting 63% of the vote here. My hypothesis is that the by-election in 2008 has a low turnout of Natives in this highly Aboriginal riding. They are probably more likely to vote in general races. That's why I think the NDP will still win this seat.

Moose Jaw Wakamow

The Saskatchewan Party has 1100 votes to make up in this riding- that's the amount they lost by here in 2007. This has to be one of their targets though, as the federal Conservatives won the most votes in this riding in May (although it was close). With Brad Wall's party polling better than Harper though, it's hard to think the NDP will be able to hold on here. Sask Party pick up.

Prince Albert Northcote

Prince Albert Northcote is very similar to Moose Jaw Wakamow. The NDP won the seat by 1200 votes in 2007, and the federal Conservatives won the seat back in May, but narrowly. While, the NDP have held this riding since it was created 20 years ago, it's time for it to lose it. Sask Party pick up.

Regina Elphinstone-Centre

With the Forum Research poll showing a huge swing to the Sask Party in Regina, the NDP could be left with just one seat, and that is this one. And even that one seat will be a close one. This is the strongest NDP seat in Regina. The party won it by 2000 votes in 2007. It was also the federal party's strongest seat in Regina in the federal election in May, where the party got 54% of the vote. I expect the NDP to win this seat, but it will be the only one in the city!

Saskatoon Centre

The NDP have held this seat since 1986. It was the NDP's strongest seat in the 2007 provincial election in Saskatoon. With the upswing in the Sask Party here however, it could be swept up in the landslide. However, we must remember it was won by nearly 2000 votes in 2007, and also the federal party won the riding by 21% in May. NDP hold.

Saskatoon Fairview

The Sask Party lost this seat by 1100 votes in 2007. Just like Saskatoon Centre, this seat has been held by the NDP since 1986. However, it's not as strong of a seat. The federal party won the riding by just 7% of the vote in 2007. It looks like the Saskatchewan Party will have just enough support to pick this seat up.

Saskatoon Nutana

Last prediction, I had this seat as a tie. It appears it will be the only seat I have going from a toss up to the NDP, although it will still be a toss up, really. Nutana was the federal party's best Saskatoon riding, winning the seat by 26%. Provincially it was won by 2200 votes in 2007. You would think it would be a lock, but the question remains how well will the Liberals do here? I think the NDP should be able to keep this seat.

Saskatoon Riversdale

Another riding the NDP has held continuously since 1986. It was also held by former Premier Lorne Calvert until 2009. The party was able to keep the seat in the by-election that year, despite doing as well as they are now in the polls. The federal party won the seat by 12%, which should be enough for the Sask Party to overcome- however, if the NDP was able to keep the seat in the by-election, they should be able to keep it in the general as well.

Riding changes since the last prediction:

With regional polling numbers coming out of Regina, I have now taken Regina Coronation Park, Regina Douglas Park and Regina Walsh Acres out from the NDP, and given them to the Saskatchewan Party. That would mean NDP leader Dwain Lingenfelter would lose his seat of Regina Douglas Park! Additionally, I have taken away Saskatoon Massey Place from the NDP and given it to the Sask Party. The two ties in my last projection have been distributed evenly to the two parties. Prince Albert Northcote I now have going to the Saskatchewan Party, while I now have Saskatoon Nutana going NDP.

Conclusion

The 2011 Saskatchewan provincial election will be one for the history books. We know in all likelihood that the Sask Party will win the highest popular vote in provincial history, but will they be able to beat the seat record? It's unlikely, as that mark was made in 1982 when the Tories won 55 seats in a larger (64 seat) legislature. Perhaps they will force the NDP into the smallest official opposition caucus in provincial history. That will be tough to, as that mark is five seats, set by the Liberals in 1944 (defeated by the CCF) and by the CCF in 1934 (defeated by the Liberals).

Speaking of the Liberals, what will happen to them? Will they be able to break 10% in any seat? The same question can be asked of the Green Party, who unlike the Liberals are running a candidate in every riding. It will be humiliating for the Liberals to finish fourth in popular vote behind the Greens, but that seems to be inevitable at the moment.

Polls close at 8pm CST, or 9 EST.

2011 federal election results by provincial riding in Saskatchewan

Click to enlarge

There have been no new polls for the upcoming Saskatchewan provincial election next week, but that won't stop me from showing an interesting map that will be vital to any proper study of the Saskatchewan electoral map. Thanks to Krago, from the rabble.ca forums, I have been able to make a map of the province showing the federal election results transposed to reflect the provincial riding boundaries. He was generous enough once again to send me the raw data.

Before we get into comparing this map to the provincial one, I must make one point about the federal results in Saskatchewan. No province has a worse gerrymander in my opinion of their federal ridings. In the federal election, the Conservatives won 13 seats, the Liberals 1, and the NDP none. Take a look now at the same election, but with provincial riding boundaries. That one Liberal seat was good enough for just 2 provincial seats, and the NDP would have won six times as many, with 12. But it resulted in 0 federal seats. You see, those NDP areas, whether they are in the far north or in Saskatoon and Regina were divied up in such a way that it resulted in the dilution of NDP support, giving them no seats.

The NDP won 32% of the vote in Saskatchewan in the federal election, which is where they are polling at provincially. This doesn't mean those 12 seats they led in the federal election will translate into seats this time. This is because the Tories won 56% of the federal vote in May, but their provincial cousins (the Saskatchewan Party) are polling as high as 10 points more than that. A 10 point gain for the Tories would have meant 5 less theoretical seats for the NDP.  So perhaps, if we look at the federal election alone, the NDP would be poised to win just 7 seats next week. Then there's the matter of those 2 theoretical seats the Liberals won, certainly the provincial Liberals wont win them, the way they are polling (much of that federal vote is personal support for MP Ralph Goodale), and they are only running a candidate in one of them! The NDP presently holds both ridings, but one (Regina Dewdney) is quite marginal. The other won, Regina Doulgas Park was won by the NDP in 2007 by 21%, so they should hold on to it.

If you look at the federal election results, the NDP should be a lock to win the two northern ridings of Athabasca and Cumberland, which they won pretty handily. They should also win Regina Elphinstone-Centre, Saskatoon Nutana, Regina Lakeview, Saskatoon Centre and Saskatoon Riversdale, all seats they won by more than 10% of the vote in the federal election. The other seats they would have won are Regina Rosemont, Regina Coronation Park, Saskatoon Fairview, Saskatoon Massey Place, and Saskatoon Sutherland. The latter was actually won by the Saskatchewan Party in the 2007 election, and is therefore unlikely to go NDP next week. The federal NDP got 44% of the vote there, 2% more than the Conservatives.

The NDP presently holds three small town ridings in the province, all of which the federal party lost. Many, if not all could be lost next week. We should keep our eyes on Prince Albert Northcote, Moose Jaw Wakamow, and The Battlefords. The Conservatives would have won these seats by 5%, 4% and 17% respectively in the federal election. It is my opinion at this point that all of these seats will go to the Saskatchewan Party.

Other seats that the provincial NDP holds but the federal Tories would have won are Saskatoon Meewasin, Saskatoon Eastview, Regina Walsh Acres and Regina Northeast. All but Regina Walsh Acres were marginal races in 2007, and that was only because the Saskatchewan Party candidate backed out of the race. All but Regina Northeast were won by the Tories by less than 5% of the vote in the federal election.

So, much can be learned from this map when it comes to analyzing the upcoming election. It wouldn't be too far fetched to see a similar one next week, just replacing Tory blue with Sask Party green!