You
may be wondering where I've been during the campaign, and
why
I haven't done any projections or maps. Well, as part of my day job
at EKOS Research, I've been working on an internal seat projection
model based
on our polling numbers, with my colleague Graham Pressey.
Now that the campaign is over, I am pleased to be able to release the
final product to the public. I am hoping that I have been able build
on my successful qualitative and quantitative seat projections in the
past by having access to a lot more data than I would have had ever
dreamed of in the past.
While
I am helped my access to this data, the fact that
this election has proven to be very volatile, will in no doubt effect
the accuracy of my final numbers.
I
haven't much time for this post, so I will just summarize my
findings. You can read more about the process here.
Our
overall numbers show the Liberals winning a strong minority with 151
seats out of the new total seat count of 338 (170 seats are needed
for a majority). The forecast shows the Conservatives in opposition
at 116 seats, the NDP falling to 54, the Bloc rebounding to 16 seats,
and the Greens hanging on to their one seat.
In
Atlantic Canada, we have consistently shown the Liberals dominating,
to the degree that they may win nearly every seat, including
winning every
seat in Nova Scotia and PEI. I
have the Conservatives
winning
just two seats (in
New Brunswick)
and the NDP would just win one seat in the region, in Newfoundland
specifically.
Quebec
proved to be a nightmare
in my attempt to make a decision for each seat. While our numbers
show the NDP just barely winning the popular vote in the province,
they may just finish in 2nd
place in a lot of seats. The Liberals
have the true momentum in the province, and are likely going to win
nearly
every
seat in Montreal, and a number of seats off the island. The
Conservatives have made significant gains in the province, and are
likely to win almost every seat in the Quebec City area. With the
Bloc now polling just as high as
they did in 2011, they will make gains based solely on vote splitting
between the other three parties. Overall,
I have the Liberals winning 27 seats in
the province,
the NDP 22, the Bloc 16 and the Conservatives 13.
In
Ontario, the Liberals have a lot of momentum, and are set to win
nearly every seat in the GTA, and in Ottawa. Outside of these
regions, they will make gains into territory they have not won in
over a decade. The Conservatives will be reduced to a handful of
rural seats, and if they are likely a couple of seats in the GTA. The
NDP has seen declining poll numbers in the province, and will be left
with a caucus of their most popular incumbents, and a couple of new
seats if they are lucky. Overall, I have the Liberals winning 79
seats in Ontario, the Conservatives 29 and the NDP 13.
In
Manitoba, the Liberals have won back a lot of historical support, and
are set to win nearly every seat in Winnipeg. Outside the city
though, the Conservatives will likely win every riding, except
Churchill, which might be the only NDP seat left in the province.
In
Saskatchewan, new riding boundaries will benefit the NDP the most,
giving them the chance to win 2 seats. The Conservatives will win the
rest of
the province,
save Regina—Wascana, which the Liberals should retain.
In
Alberta, the “orange chinook” has blown away, and I am predicting
the status quo, i.e. the Tories winning every seat except Edmonton
Strathcona (which will likely stay in NDP hands). That is not to say
we won't see any seat changes, as the Liberals are eyeing a couple of
seats in Calgary, and the NDP a couple in Edmonton.
In
BC, we have seen some last minute shifts to the Conservatives, which
should help them retain most of their seats, mostly in the Interior
and the Fraser Valley. The Liberals are set to make inroads in the
Lower Mainland, winning back their historical vote in Vancouver,
Burnaby and on the north shore. The NDP could see some seat losses in
the Lower Mainland, which will be offset by some gains on Vancouver
Island. The Greens are particularly strong on Vancouver Island, but
only strong enough to retain their one seat in Saanich—Gulf
Islands.
Finally,
in the Territories, they Liberals are set to win back both Yukon and
Nunavut, while the race in the Northwest Territories is sure to be a
close one, but I expect the NDP should hang on to it.
Riding-by-riding forecasts:
Newfoundland and Labrador
|
FORECAST
|
Avalon
|
LIBERAL
|
Bonavista—Burin—Trinity
|
LIBERAL
|
Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame
|
LIBERAL
|
Labrador
|
LIBERAL
|
Long Range Mountains
|
LIBERAL
|
St. John’s East
|
NDP
|
St. John’s South—Mount Pearl
|
LIBERAL
|
Prince Edward Island
|
FORECAST
|
Cardigan
|
LIBERAL
|
Charlottetown
|
LIBERAL
|
Egmont
|
LIBERAL
|
Malpeque
|
LIBERAL
|
Nova Scotia
|
FORECAST
|
Cape Breton—Canso
|
LIBERAL
|
Central Nova
|
LIBERAL
|
Cumberland—Colchester
|
LIBERAL
|
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour
|
LIBERAL
|
Halifax
|
LIBERAL
|
Halifax West
|
LIBERAL
|
Kings—Hants
|
LIBERAL
|
Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook
|
LIBERAL
|
South Shore—St. Margarets
|
LIBERAL
|
Sydney—Victoria
|
LIBERAL
|
West Nova
|
LIBERAL
|
New Brunswick
|
FORECAST
|
Acadie—Bathurst
|
LIBERAL
|
Beauséjour
|
LIBERAL
|
Fredericton
|
LIBERAL
|
Fundy Royal
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Madawaska—Restigouche
|
LIBERAL
|
Miramichi—Grand Lake
|
LIBERAL
|
Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe
|
LIBERAL
|
New Brunswick Southwest
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Saint John—Rothesay
|
LIBERAL
|
Tobique—Mactaquac
|
LIBERAL
|
Quebec
|
FORECAST
|
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou
|
NDP
|
Abitibi—Témiscamingue
|
NDP
|
Ahuntsic-Cartierville
|
LIBERAL
|
Alfred-Pellan
|
LIBERAL
|
Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation
|
LIBERAL
|
Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia
|
LIBERAL
|
Beauce
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Beauport–Côte-de-Beaupré–Île d'Orléans–Charlevoix
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Beauport—Limoilou
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel
|
BQ
|
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Beloeil—Chambly
|
BQ
|
Berthier—Maskinongé
|
NDP
|
Bourassa
|
LIBERAL
|
Brome—Missisquoi
|
LIBERAL
|
Brossard—Saint-Lambert
|
LIBERAL
|
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Châteauguay—Lacolle
|
BQ
|
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord
|
NDP
|
Compton—Stanstead
|
NDP
|
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle
|
LIBERAL
|
Drummond
|
NDP
|
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine
|
LIBERAL
|
Gatineau
|
LIBERAL
|
Hochelaga
|
NDP
|
Honoré-Mercier
|
LIBERAL
|
Hull—Aylmer
|
LIBERAL
|
Joliette
|
BQ
|
Jonquière
|
NDP
|
La Pointe-de-l'Île
|
NDP
|
La Prairie
|
BQ
|
Lac-Saint-Jean
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Lac-Saint-Louis
|
LIBERAL
|
LaSalle–Émard–Verdun
|
LIBERAL
|
Laurentides—Labelle
|
BQ
|
Laurier—Sainte-Marie
|
BQ
|
Laval—Les Îles
|
LIBERAL
|
Lévis—Lotbinière
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne
|
BQ
|
Longueuil—Saint-Hubert
|
BQ
|
Louis-Hébert
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Louis-Saint-Laurent
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Manicouagan
|
NDP
|
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
|
LIBERAL
|
Mégantic—L'Érable
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Mirabel
|
BQ
|
Montarville
|
BQ
|
Montcalm
|
BQ
|
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Mount Royal
|
LIBERAL
|
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount
|
LIBERAL
|
Outremont
|
NDP
|
Papineau
|
LIBERAL
|
Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères
|
BQ
|
Pierrefonds—Dollard
|
LIBERAL
|
Pontiac
|
LIBERAL
|
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Québec
|
NDP
|
Repentigny
|
BQ
|
Richmond—Arthabaska
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques
|
NDP
|
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles
|
NDP
|
Rivière-du-Nord
|
BQ
|
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie
|
NDP
|
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot
|
NDP
|
Saint-Jean
|
NDP
|
Saint-Laurent
|
LIBERAL
|
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel
|
LIBERAL
|
Saint-Maurice—Champlain
|
LIBERAL
|
Salaberry—Suroît
|
BQ
|
Shefford
|
NDP
|
Sherbrooke
|
NDP
|
Terrebonne
|
NDP
|
Thérèse-De Blainville
|
NDP
|
Trois-Rivières
|
NDP
|
Vaudreuil—Soulanges
|
LIBERAL
|
Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Sœurs
|
LIBERAL
|
Vimy
|
LIBERAL
|
Ontario
|
FORECAST
|
Ajax
|
LIBERAL
|
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing
|
NDP
|
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
|
LIBERAL
|
Barrie—Innisfil
|
LIBERAL
|
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
|
LIBERAL
|
Bay of Quinte
|
LIBERAL
|
Beaches—East York
|
LIBERAL
|
Brampton Centre
|
LIBERAL
|
Brampton East
|
LIBERAL
|
Brampton North
|
LIBERAL
|
Brampton South
|
LIBERAL
|
Brampton West
|
LIBERAL
|
Brantford–Brant
|
LIBERAL
|
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Burlington
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Cambridge
|
LIBERAL
|
Carleton
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Chatham-Kent—Leamington
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Davenport
|
LIBERAL
|
Don Valley East
|
LIBERAL
|
Don Valley North
|
LIBERAL
|
Don Valley West
|
LIBERAL
|
Dufferin—Caledon
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Durham
|
LIBERAL
|
Eglinton—Lawrence
|
LIBERAL
|
Elgin—Middlesex—London
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Essex
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Etobicoke Centre
|
LIBERAL
|
Etobicoke North
|
LIBERAL
|
Etobicoke—Lakeshore
|
LIBERAL
|
Flamborough—Glanbrook
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
|
LIBERAL
|
Guelph
|
LIBERAL
|
Haldimand—Norfolk
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Hamilton Centre
|
NDP
|
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
|
NDP
|
Hamilton Mountain
|
LIBERAL
|
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
|
LIBERAL
|
Hastings—Lennox and Addington
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Humber River–Black Creek
|
LIBERAL
|
Huron—Bruce
|
LIBERAL
|
Kanata—Carleton
|
LIBERAL
|
Kenora
|
NDP
|
King—Vaughan
|
LIBERAL
|
Kingston and the Islands
|
LIBERAL
|
Kitchener Centre
|
LIBERAL
|
Kitchener South—Hespeler
|
LIBERAL
|
Kitchener—Conestoga
|
LIBERAL
|
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Leeds–Grenville–Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
London North Centre
|
LIBERAL
|
London West
|
LIBERAL
|
London—Fanshawe
|
NDP
|
Markham—Stouffville
|
LIBERAL
|
Markham—Thornhill
|
LIBERAL
|
Markham—Unionville
|
LIBERAL
|
Milton
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Mississauga Centre
|
LIBERAL
|
Mississauga East–Cooksville
|
LIBERAL
|
Mississauga—Erin Mills
|
LIBERAL
|
Mississauga—Lakeshore
|
LIBERAL
|
Mississauga—Malton
|
LIBERAL
|
Mississauga—Streetsville
|
LIBERAL
|
Nepean
|
LIBERAL
|
Newmarket—Aurora
|
LIBERAL
|
Niagara Centre
|
NDP
|
Niagara Falls
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Niagara West
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Nickel Belt
|
NDP
|
Nipissing—Timiskaming
|
LIBERAL
|
Northumberland–Peterborough South
|
LIBERAL
|
Oakville
|
LIBERAL
|
Oakville North—Burlington
|
LIBERAL
|
Orléans
|
LIBERAL
|
Oshawa
|
NDP
|
Ottawa Centre
|
NDP
|
Ottawa South
|
LIBERAL
|
Ottawa West—Nepean
|
LIBERAL
|
Ottawa—Vanier
|
LIBERAL
|
Oxford
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Parkdale—High Park
|
LIBERAL
|
Parry Sound—Muskoka
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Perth—Wellington
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Peterborough–Kawartha
|
LIBERAL
|
Pickering—Uxbridge
|
LIBERAL
|
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Richmond Hill
|
LIBERAL
|
Sarnia—Lambton
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Sault Ste. Marie
|
LIBERAL
|
Scarborough Centre
|
LIBERAL
|
Scarborough North
|
LIBERAL
|
Scarborough Southwest
|
LIBERAL
|
Scarborough—Agincourt
|
LIBERAL
|
Scarborough—Guildwood
|
LIBERAL
|
Scarborough—Rouge Park
|
LIBERAL
|
Simcoe North
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Simcoe—Grey
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Spadina—Fort York
|
LIBERAL
|
St. Catharines
|
LIBERAL
|
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Sudbury
|
LIBERAL
|
Thornhill
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Thunder Bay—Rainy River
|
LIBERAL
|
Thunder Bay—Superior North
|
LIBERAL
|
Timmins—James Bay
|
NDP
|
Toronto Centre
|
LIBERAL
|
Toronto–St. Paul's
|
LIBERAL
|
Toronto—Danforth
|
NDP
|
University—Rosedale
|
LIBERAL
|
Vaughan—Woodbridge
|
LIBERAL
|
Waterloo
|
LIBERAL
|
Wellington—Halton Hills
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Whitby
|
LIBERAL
|
Willowdale
|
LIBERAL
|
Windsor West
|
NDP
|
Windsor—Tecumseh
|
NDP
|
York Centre
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
York South—Weston
|
LIBERAL
|
York—Simcoe
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Manitoba
|
FORECAST
|
Brandon—Souris
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Churchill—Keewatinook Aski
|
NDP
|
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Elmwood—Transcona
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Kildonan—St. Paul
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Portage—Lisgar
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Provencher
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Saint Boniface—Saint Vital
|
LIBERAL
|
Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Winnipeg Centre
|
LIBERAL
|
Winnipeg North
|
LIBERAL
|
Winnipeg South
|
LIBERAL
|
Winnipeg South Centre
|
LIBERAL
|
Saskatchewan
|
FORECAST
|
Battlefords—Lloydminster
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Cypress Hills—Grasslands
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Prince Albert
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Regina—Lewvan
|
NDP
|
Regina—Qu'Appelle
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Regina—Wascana
|
LIBERAL
|
Saskatoon—Grasswood
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Saskatoon—University
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Saskatoon West
|
NDP
|
Souris—Moose Mountain
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Yorkton—Melville
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Alberta
|
FORECAST
|
Banff—Airdrie
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Battle River—Crowfoot
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Bow River
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Calgary Centre
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Calgary Confederation
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Calgary Forest Lawn
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Calgary Heritage
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Calgary Midnapore
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Calgary Nose Hill
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Calgary Rocky Ridge
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Calgary Shepard
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Calgary Signal Hill
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Calgary Skyview
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Edmonton Centre
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Edmonton Griesbach
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Edmonton Manning
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Edmonton Mill Woods
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Edmonton Riverbend
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Edmonton Strathcona
|
NDP
|
Edmonton West
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Edmonton—Wetaskiwin
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Foothills
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Fort McMurray—Cold Lake
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Grande Prairie–Mackenzie
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Lakeland
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Lethbridge
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Peace River—Westlock
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Red Deer—Mountain View
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Red Deer–Lacombe
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
St. Albert—Edmonton
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Sturgeon River–Parkland
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Yellowhead
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
British Columbia
|
FORECAST
|
Abbotsford
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Burnaby North—Seymour
|
LIBERAL
|
Burnaby South
|
NDP
|
Cariboo—Prince George
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Chilliwack—Hope
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Cloverdale—Langley City
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Courtenay—Alberni
|
NDP
|
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford
|
NDP
|
Delta
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke
|
NDP
|
Fleetwood—Port Kells
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Kelowna—Lake Country
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Kootenay—Columbia
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Langley—Aldergrove
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Nanaimo—Ladysmith
|
NDP
|
New Westminster—Burnaby
|
NDP
|
North Island–Powell River
|
NDP
|
North Okanagan—Shuswap
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
North Vancouver
|
LIBERAL
|
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Port Moody—Coquitlam
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Richmond Centre
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Saanich—Gulf Islands
|
GREEN
|
Skeena—Bulkley Valley
|
NDP
|
South Okanagan—West Kootenay
|
NDP
|
South Surrey—White Rock
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Steveston—Richmond East
|
CONSERVATIVE
|
Surrey Centre
|
NDP
|
Surrey—Newton
|
LIBERAL
|
Vancouver Centre
|
LIBERAL
|
Vancouver East
|
NDP
|
Vancouver Granville
|
LIBERAL
|
Vancouver Kingsway
|
NDP
|
Vancouver Quadra
|
LIBERAL
|
Vancouver South
|
LIBERAL
|
Victoria
|
NDP
|
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country
|
LIBERAL
|
Territories
|
FORECAST
|
Yukon
|
LIBERAL
|
Northwest Territories
|
NDP
|
Nunavut
|
LIBERAL
|
