tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post4631335991269704129..comments2024-03-22T03:33:16.945-04:00Comments on Canadian Election Atlas: Ontario election 2011 prediction (september 26)Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-31944592053023198132012-11-11T19:02:29.863-05:002012-11-11T19:02:29.863-05:00Oh we at the Green Party would have loved to have ...Oh we at the Green Party would have loved to have gotten some of those predicted results of 6-8% instead of 3%Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-77228892750558251312011-09-30T16:00:27.747-04:002011-09-30T16:00:27.747-04:00I could do a cartogram, I guess. If I knew how to,...I could do a cartogram, I guess. If I knew how to, I would make one of those stretchy cartograms based on population. It would be after the election(s) at any rate.Earl A. Washburnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-88498000289510591472011-09-29T11:54:09.598-04:002011-09-29T11:54:09.598-04:00Have you considered making a cartogram of Ontario ...Have you considered making a cartogram of Ontario proportional to population or ridings? I find that for a very unequally populated country like Canada, electoral maps are often very hard to do a visual scan of, since you end up focusing mostly on huge rural ridings. It would be great to have an Ontario template on Wikipedia so future map-makers to use.Padraicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-81579292583968837402011-09-28T10:18:23.122-04:002011-09-28T10:18:23.122-04:00I guess that all depends on if and how the dynamic...I guess that all depends on if and how the dynamic shifts after last night. If the Tories are perceived to have some momentum that may very well happen. But if the Liberals seem to lack credibility they may shed soft support to both opposition parties or even experience a suppressed voter turn out on Eday.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-48647820242476910792011-09-27T22:38:57.612-04:002011-09-27T22:38:57.612-04:00Im also starting to think some soft NDP-Liberal vo...Im also starting to think some soft NDP-Liberal voters in Toronto will be voting Liberal to stop the Tories, because of vote splitting (as evidenced in the federal election). This may make sense in some ridings, and not in others. But, voters will vote strategically even it makes no sense. I can tell you that here in Ottawa Centre there are voters voting strategically for the Liberals to stop the Tories, when perhaps a vote for the NDP would make just as much if not more sense. (although the Tories have a next to nil chance of winning here).Earl A. Washburnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-91193938076738230862011-09-27T08:57:25.367-04:002011-09-27T08:57:25.367-04:00Any error associated with voter response or method...Any error associated with voter response or methodology is systematic not random. The size of the sample can't compensate for non-random sampling. This is the same argument as the mandatory long form census.<br /><br />Interesting point about phone exchanges - perhaps that partially explains the poor NDP results in down town Toronto. Highly concentrated support could be 'spread' into other ridings. This would preserve the overall party vote percentage but would ruin riding level predictions. If true that's one mother of a systematic error!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-71341682413083786982011-09-26T17:47:25.648-04:002011-09-26T17:47:25.648-04:00I think that those random errors are more likely o...I think that those random errors are more likely on the riding by riding level. I don't know how they asked the questions, but they could have asked demographics. I know EKOS does. That would mean they could weight the results. But with 40,000 people, any skewing would probably be balanced out, probably. <br /><br />Also of interest, is the fact that application of respondents to ridings may be off. I doubt the respondents were asked which riding they lived in, so they were grouped by telephone exchange. That could mean massive errors for Toronto.Earl A. Washburnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-44002903753816991632011-09-26T14:13:32.460-04:002011-09-26T14:13:32.460-04:00How do you compensate for the IVR method? One can...How do you compensate for the IVR method? One can only claim +/-0.5% on 40,000 respondents if the sample is representative of the population?<br />People who hang up immediately when they hear a recording instead of a real person bias the data. Is there any idea how much of an impact this has?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com