Saskatoon Fairview by-election preview

The Fall election season kicks off today with a provincial by-election in the Saskatchewan riding of Saskatoon Fairview. The seat was vacated in July when its MLA, Jennifer Campeau of the governing Saskatchewan Party, accepted a job with a mining company in British Columbia. Campeau was a former cabinet minister in the government of Premier Brad Wall (who will also be resigning soon). This will be the second provincial by-election in the province since the last provincial election in 2016. The first by-election was held in March in Saskatoon Meewasin, and saw the NDP's Ryan Meili win the seat which was previously held by the Saskatchewan Party on an 11-point two-party average swing. Saskatoon Fairview is an even lower hanging fruit for the NDP, as Campeau won the seat in 2016 by just three points over her New Democratic opponent (compared to the eight point difference between the two parties in Meewasin). 

The once immensely popular conservative Saskatchewan Party government has been becoming more and more unpopular in recent months, with polls showing them and the NDP in a dead heat. It looks like the province may be heading toward the urban/rural polarization last seen in the early 2000s, which had the NDP gobble up nearly all of the urban seats and the Saskatchewan Party win most of the rural ridings. Since Wall's first victory in 2007, the Saskatchewan Party has been able to win ever increasing majority governments by winning suburban seats in Regina and Saskatoon and ridings in some of the smaller cities. Saskatoon Fairview as one of those suburban seats the Saskatchewan Party wrested away from the NDP.

For now, both parties are effectively leaderless, with Wall announcing last month his plans on resigning the province's premiership, and with the NDP in the midst of a leadership election which will culminate next Spring.

Profile

Saskatoon Fairview is a middle class suburban riding on the west-side of Saskatoon. Most the riding was built up in the 1960s and 1970s following the area being annexed by the city. It continues to grow to this day with new developments being built in the Kensington and Blairmore neighbourhoods. Its older, core neighbourhoods are (from north to south) Confederation Park, Pacific Heights and Parkridge. The riding also contains part of the Massey Place neighbourhood, which was added to the riding before the last election after redistribution.

Saskatoon MLA list since 1967 (previously Saskatoon was a multiple member seat)

The riding is a traditional NDP seat, only voting for right wing parties in landslide elections, specifically 1982, 2011 and 2016. Even in 2011 and 2016 the race in Saskatoon Fairview was close, with the Saskatchewan Party winning it by just five points and three points respectively. With its current borders, the 2011 election would've been just as close as in 2016 (three point difference). The two-party swing between the elections was just 0.1% to the NDP, which was the exact same as the province-wide swing between both elections.

The riding's main political cleavage runs down 22 Street, with the area north of that street being more friendly to the NDP and the area south of that street being more conservative leaning. The socio-economic and political differences between both sides of the street are fairly minimal, but large enough to have shown up in recent elections due to how close they have been in the riding. Even the last federal election was close, with my calculations showing the NDP having narrowly won more votes in Fairview than the Conservatives (37% to 36% respectively), with the Liberals winning 24% of the vote. 

Results by neighbourhood (2016 provincial and 2015 federal elections)
Click to enlarge

In both the 2015 federal election and the 2016 provincial election, both Confederation Park and Pacific Heights narrowly went NDP, while Parkridge voted for the Conservatives and the Saskatchewan Party by seven points and 10 points respectively. While only partly in the riding, Massey Place is the most pro-NDP neighbourhood, perhaps owing to the fact that it was it was in an NDP seat before being redistributed into Saskatoon Fairview. The new Blaimore SC development is becoming more NDP friendly as it grows, while the new Kensington neighbourhood is attracting more conservative voters, but was also the Liberal's best neighbourhood in both the last federal and provincial elections.

The political difference between the northern and southern parts of the riding is a result of its demographics. Massey Place has a median income of $29,000 (according to the 2010 National Household Survey) which is slightly below the provincial median, while Confederation Park and Pacific Heights have median incomes of $30,000 and $31,000 respectively. However, Parkridge in the south of the riding has a marginally higher median income of $34,000. Parkridge is also Whiter than the rest of the riding; It is 75% White, while the rest of the riding ranges from 60% to 66% White. Meanwhile, Confederation Park in the north part of the riding is especially diverse, with Indigenous Canadians making up 17% of the population and Filipinos making up 14% of the population. One other difference about Parkridge is that it is a newer neighbourhood, being built up in the 1980s and 1990s, while the northern neighbourhoods were built in the 1960s and 1970s.

Outlook

The NDP looks to recapture this riding with their candidate, Vicki Mowat who also ran there in 2016. She works as an executive assistant at the University of Saskatchewan, and defeated two other candidates for the nomination. Looking to retain the seat for the Saskatchewan Party is school trustee Cameron Scott. The Liberals, Greens and the somehow-not-dead-yet Progressive Conservatives are also running candidates, but should not be a factor. Despite the fact the Liberals got a quarter of the vote in the riding in the 2015 federal election, their provincial counterparts are not well organized at the moment.

There have been no polls published of the by-election race, and there has not been as much excitement as the Saskatoon Meewasin election in the Spring. To me, this is a sign of a probable NDP victory. The last election in Fairview may have been a close one, but it was only won by the Saskatchewan Party because the province-wide result was a landslide. With provincial polls suggesting the NDP is in a much better position, they should have no problem winning the seat. We will know for certain after polls close at 8pm (10pm Eastern).

2016 Saskatchewan municipal elections today

Voters in Saskatchewan's urban municipalities and odd-numbered rural municipalities head to the polls today to vote in local elections across the province's 16 cities, 146 towns, 260 villages and 154 of the province's 296 rural municipalities to elect new mayors and councils. Additionally, voters will also be voting in school board elections to elect school trustees for Saskatchewan's 28 school divisions (of which 19 are public, eight are Catholic and one is French). Since the last elections in 2012, Saskatchewan's municipal elections are now held every four years instead of three.

Here is a look at the elections in Saskatchewan's three largest cities:

Saskatoon

The most exciting mayoral race in the province will be in the province's largest city of Saskatoon. There are three main candidates running for mayor, and polls are showing a close three-way race between them. The front-runner is mayor Don Atchison, who has been mayor of the city since 2003. Atchison, an outspoken conservative, could squeak out a victory thanks to a split in the vote on his left between his main two rivals: city councillor Charlie Clark and businesswoman Kelley Moore. Clark, who has NDP connections, is the more progressive of the candidates, and represents the city's most left wing ward, Ward 6, which covers the Downtown and Nutana neighbourhoods of the city. Moore on the other hand is running on a more centrist platform, highlighting fiscal responsibility and sustainable planning in her platform. Both Mainstreet Research and Insightrix have released recent polls of the race, and show contradictory results. Both pollsters show Atchison with the lead; Mainstreet gives Atchison 38% and Insightrix has him at 35%. Both pollsters differ on who is in second place, though. Mainstreet has Clark in second place at 33%, while Insightrix has Moore in second place, just one point behind Atchison at 34%. Mainstreet puts Moore further behind at just 25%, while Insightrix has Clark in a close third place at 30%. These contradictory poll numbers mean that it will be difficult for anti-Atchison voters to pick a candidate if they want to get rid of the mayor. On the other hand, it may trigger centrist Moore supporters to vote Atchison to stop Clark.

Main mayoral candidates in Saskatoon

The 2012 election in Saskatoon was also an exciting race, but between just two main candidates: Atchison and public servant Tom Wolf. Wolf, a public servant, ran on a pragmatic centre to centre-left platform. Atchison squeaked out a narrow five-point victory over Wolf, and the two candidates split the city's ten wards, with each candidate winning five. Atchison won the five suburban wards located on the southern, eastern and northern edges of the city, with his best ward being Ward 9 in the city's southeast corner, picking up 61% of the vote there. Wolf's best ward was Ward 6 in the centre of the city, where he won 60% of the vote. 

Looking at Saskatoon's city council race, there are three wards which will have open races with no incumbents: Ward 6 (Charlie Clark's seat), Ward 8 and Ward 9. The incumbent in Ward 8 was Eric Olauson, who was elected in the provincial election earlier this year for the Saskatchewan Party. The incumbent in Ward 9 is Tiffany Paulsen who had run for the Liberal Party in the 2004 federal election. The ward map for 2016 has changed slightly, as the city has annexed some new territory.

Map of Saskatoon's 10 wards

Regina

Unlike the race for mayor of Saskatoon, the mayoral election in Regina has been more of a snooze-fest. One-term incumbent mayor Michael Fougere is set for a landslide election, as is customary for popular mayors heading into their second elections. The conservative-leaning Fougere had been a long time city councillor representing Ward 4 in the southeast corner of the city. He was first elected as mayor in 2012 with just 42% of the vote, thanks to a split in the progressive vote between candidates Marian Donnelly and Meka Okochi. Fougere won seven of the city's ten wards en route to his re-election, while Donnelly won the remaining three. The seven wards that Fougere won are all located in the city's more conservative-leaning suburbs, while Donnelly won the city's three inner-city wards. Fougere's best ward (and the only one where he won a majority of the vote) was his home Ward 4, where he picked up 58% of the vote. Donnelly's best ward was Ward 3, which covers the city's Downtown. Donnelly would win 55% of the vote there compared to just 20% for Fougere. Okochi's vote was generally even across the city, and he failed to win any wards.

Main mayoral candidates in Regina

For 2016, Fougere should have no problem winning every ward in the city, if the only poll of the race is to be believed. A Mainstreet Research poll conducted earlier this month showed Fougere way ahead at 73%, while his four opponents are all in single digits. His main opponent will likely be Tony Fiacco, brother of former mayor Pat Fiacco and former Saskatchewan Party candidate. The left wing vote will be split between three candidates: businessman Wayne Ast, perennial mayoral candidate Jim Elliott and former Green Party candidate and topless rights activist Evangeline Gordron. The Mainstreet poll put Fiacco at 9%, Ast and Elliott at 8% and Godron at 2%.

Regina City Council has 11 seats, with ten ward councillors plus the mayor. Of the ten wards, just two will have open races with no incumbents: Wards 3 and 6. Of note, Ward 6 has a total of 9 candidates running. The city of Regina annexed some new territory since the last election, and as such the ward map was tweaked slightly.

Map of Regina's 10 wards

Prince Albert

Prince Albert mayoral candidates

In Prince Albert, one-term mayor Greg Dionne is being challenged by Ward 6 city councillor Martin Ring, peace advocate Conrad Burns and former junior hockey player Josh Morrow whose campaign has been criticized for being “Trump” like for its “American-style” incivility. Dionne, who was a city councillor before becoming ways, was first elected to lead council in 2012 when he defeated then-incumbent mayor Jim Scarrow by nearly 1100 votes. Dionne won every ward in the city, doing especially well in the more NDP-friendly wards (1, 2, 3 and 4), which cover the northern and central parts of the city. His best ward was Ward 1, where he won 58% of the vote. His worst ward (and Scarrow's best ward) was Ward 5, where he still beat Scarrow by a 47-44% margin. His worst wards are all located in parts of the city that tend to vote for the Conservatives in federal elections and the Saskatchewan Party in provincial elections.

Prince Albert's city council has nine seats (eight councillors plus the mayor). Wards 6 and 7 have no incumbents running for re-election as Ward 6 councillor Martin Ring is running for mayor and Ward 7 has been vacant since January when its representative resigned for personal reasons. Ward 8 will have no election, as councillor Ted Zurakowski has been acclaimed.

Map of Prince Albert's 8 wards

Polls close at 8pm Central Standard Time in most municipalities. Saskatchewan doesn't have daylight saving time, so there is a 2 hour difference, meaning the polls close at 10pm Eastern.