Federal Liberal leadership maps

The Canadian Election Atlas is back from hiatus to take a look at the federal Liberal Party leadership race which will decide a winner today. Admittedly, it has not been a race I have been interested in too much, as since the beginning, the winner has been a foregone conclusion. (If you've been living in a box, that winner is Justin Trudeau). Despite this foregone conclusion, the race has six candidates, and at one point had as many as nine candidates. The last time a Liberal leadership race was a foregone conclusion (not including 2009), there were only two candidates (when Paul Martin beat Sheila Copps in 2003).

Despite the race being a foregone conclusion, the abundance of candidates has meant that there is a race, and the Liberal Party's decision to ditch the traditional delegated conventions and move to a more democratic one member one vote system has made the race at least a little interesting. And it's not just a one member, one vote system either, as the Liberals have expanded the amount of people who can vote in their leadership election by allowing people who “support” the party to vote in it, without needing to get a membership. In total, 127000 people are eligible to vote the Liberal leadership race.

The press has had a field day comparing the Liberal leadership race to the NDP's leadership race. Indeed, the amount of registered voters is similar (the NDP had about 131000 eligible voters). However, the Liberals have surpassed the NDP in terms of actual voters. I won't go into partisan reasons why, but I just thought it was interesting.

Anyways, much like the NDP race, I have made an endorsement map for the Liberal leadership race. It's not nearly as interesting as the NDP race, as there were fewer endorsements made, and most endorsements were for Justin Trudeau. In terms of political endorsements (only counting people who have been democratically elected), Trudeau leads in Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador. 2^nd place candidate Joyce Murray (MP for Vancouver Quadra) leads the endorsement race in her home province of BC, while former MP Martha Hall Findlay (Willowdale) leads in Alberta and New Brunswick. Saskatchewan, which had just two endorsers is a tie between Trudeau and Murray, with one endorsement each. Deborah Coyne is the only other candidate with a political endorsement. Candidates Martin Cauchon and Karen McCrimmon have none.

Endorsement map.
Click to enlarge.

Hopefully the Liberal Party will release provincial results for their leadership race, but might hold out on doing so, like the NDP. If they do, it will be interesting to compare the actual results to the endorsements. In any event, if the endorsement map tells us anything, it is that this race is Trudeau's to lose. If there is a race for second, it will be between Joyce Murray and Martha Hall Findlay, although I personally think Murray has the edge.

Like I did for the NDP leadership race, I have also created a number of “membership” (read: registered voter) maps for the race, showing the registered voter distribution (both in raw numbers and percentage of population), registered voters to MP ratio and votes in 2011 to registered voters ratio:

Province / Territory	Registered voters for leadership race	% of population	Liberal registered voters to MP ratio	2011 Liberal voters to Liberal registered voters
Alberta	9302	0.26	-	13.9
British Columbia	16098	0.37	8049	15.6
Manitoba	4444	0.37	4444	18.3
New Brunswick	6889	0.92	6889	12.8
Newfoundland and Labrador	3149	0.61	787.25	26.1
Northwest Territories	176	0.42	-	16.3
Nova Scotia	7425	0.81	1856.25	17.6
Nunavut	56	0.18	-	40.4
Ontario	59474	0.46	5406.7	23.5
Prince Edward Island	2611	1.86	870.3	12.4
Quebec	14577	0.18	1822.1	36.9
Saskatchewan	2700	0.26	2700	14.3
Yukon	223	0.66	-	23.7
TOTAL	127124	0.4	3832.1	21.9

The first map shows the provinces and territories coloured in my number of registered Liberal voters. Ontario has by far the most amount of voters at 59,474 which accounts for 47% of the Liberal electorate. Interestingly, British Columbia is next with 16,098 followed by Quebec at 14,577. Not surprisingly, Nunavut has the least amount of Liberal leadership voters at 56.

The second map is coloured by the percentage of the population who are eligible to vote for Liberal leader. Prince Edward Island tops this list, as the only province or territory where more than 1% of the population is registered to vote (1.86%). The next highest is New Brunswick at 0.92% followed by Nova Scotia at 0.81%. Quebec and Nunavut are the lowest at just 0.18%. 

The next maps shows the registered Liberal vote to MP ratio. BC tops this list, having just 2 Members of Parliament for it 16000 voters. New Brunswick is next, with just one MP for its 6900 voters. The province with the best ratio is Newfoundland and Labrador which has 4 Members for 3149 registered voters. Alberta, and the three Territories have no Liberal MPs.

The final map shows the ratio of actual Liberal voters (that is people who voted Liberal in the last federal election) to registered Liberal voters. One thing I found from this calculation is how relatively even these numbers are across the provinces and territories. The range goes from 40 in Nunavut to 12 in PEI. This is far more even than we saw in the NDP race, where we saw some large discrepancies, such as in Quebec. 

Ontario Liberal leadership race - delegate map

Ontario Liberals met last weekend to elect delegates who will be sent to Toronto on the weekend of January 25-27 to elect the next Premier of Ontario. Current Premier and Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty announced last October that he would be resigning as Premier following a vote to elect the next leader of the party.

As a rule, I have been avoiding making maps of provincial party leadership races, but I have decided to change that and begin to cover at least the races of provincial governing parties. As the Liberals are currently in power in Ontario, I have decided to map the leadership race.

Liberal Party members got together in all 107 ridings last weekend, and in various campus clubs and women's organizations to elect a slate of delegates to attend the leadership race. Most elected delegates have committed to vote for a particular candidate, but 67 of the 1875 elected delegates are uncommitted. Former Windsor West MPP and Education Minister Sandra Pupatello won the most delegates (510). Don Valley West MPP and another former Education Minister Kathleen Wynne won the second most amount of delegates at 468. The race is widely expected to be between those two, meaning that Ontario will likely see its first female Premier in its history. To boot, if Wynne wins, she will become the first openly gay (the late former Premier of New Brunswick Richard Hatfield was gay, but in the closet) person to lead a province in Canadian history. In third place is former Parkdale—High Park MP and MPP, and yet another former Minister of Education, Gerard Kennedy. He won 259 delegates. In fourth is Mississauga—Erindale MPP and former Transportation Minister Harinder Takhar. He was the biggest surprise finisher in the delegate fight, picking up 244 delegates, despite few endorsements from current or former caucus members. Close behind him in 5^th is another Mississauga MPP (Mississauga South) and former Labour Minister Charles Sousa. He secured 204 delegates. And finally in last place is St. Paul's MPP and former Citizenship and Immigration Minister Eric Hoskins. He won just 105 delegates.

Each of Ontario's 107 ridings will be sending a slate of 16 delegates to the Toronto convention. In addition, a number of Liberal clubs in universities across the province elected delegates, as did a number of Liberal women's clubs. All 6 candidates won at least a plurality of delegates in at least one riding. In fact, last place candidate Hoskins won 2 ridings. Uncommitted delegates won a plurality in two ridings as well (Vaughan and Scarborough—Rouge River). I'm not sure why that happened.

The support that each candidate received across the regions of the province can be attributed to a number of factors. Tribal politics appear to be alive and well in the Liberal Party, as certain ethnic groups have clearly put their support behind certain candidates. Also, it appears that endorsements truly do matter in many cases. Here is an analysis of the support for all six candidates.

Hoskins

Hoskins won just two ridings, and perhaps surprisingly, neither of them is the riding he currently holds in the Ontario Legislature. He lost St. Paul's by just one delegate to Wynne (6-5). He did win an overwhelming majority of delegates in the riding of Haldimand—Norfolk where he ran federally in the 2008 election. He also won the riding of Scarborough—Guildwood where he won the endorsement of its MPP, Magarett Best.

Sousa

Sousa's support was concentrated in the GTA where he won 9 ridings and tied in 4 others. His best riding was his own, Mississauga South where he won 14 of the 16 delegates. He also did well in Davenport, a riding with a high Portuguese population. He also won York South—Weston, another riding with a high Portuguese population. Sousa himself is Portuguese. Outside of his own riding however, he won no other seats in the Peel Region. He did tie with Takhar in Mississauga East—Cooksville, however. Sousa did fairly well in Scarborough (thanks to endorsements by two local MPPs) where he won three seats and in a handful of exurban ridings.

Takhar

Takhar's campaign focused heavily on the South Asian community in Ontario. While he finished fourth in delegates, he finished a strong third in total number of ridings won. This indicates that he support was concentrated heavily in the ridings he did well in. Takhar did the best in his home region of Peel, where he won or tied in all but two ridings. He also did well in the northwest corner of Toronto, which is home to a high immigrant population. What's most surprising about his strength was the wins in suburban Ottawa (Nepean—Carleton and Carleton—Mississippi Mills), Niagara West—Glanbrook, Hamilton—Stoney Creek and in the Grand River Valley region (Guelph, Brant, Kitchener-Waterloo, etc). I have no idea why he did so well there.

Kennedy

Kennedy's strength was a mile wide and an inch deep it seems. While he finished third in delegates, he finished fifth in terms of seats won- just eight, and tied in two others. His support was not really concentrated in any particular region of the province. His best riding was of course, Parkdale—High Park which he represented both federally and provincially in the past. He won 10 delegates there. Some of his other wins can be attributed to high profile endorsements, like the ones in Niagara Falls and Brampton West. The other ridings he won are quite random: Sarnia—Lambton, Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, Oxford, Peterborough and Timiskaming—Cochane (plus his two ties, Barrie and Scarborough Centre). Not sure why he won in those seats in particular.

Wynne

Wynne did strongly in two very different areas of the province, Central Toronto and Central Ontario. The former is a very left wing part of the province, perhaps the most left wing part, while the latter is quite the opposite. While it's easy to explain why left leaning Liberals in Toronto would support Wynne, an open lesbian who happens to hail from the region, but it's harder to explain why she won ridings in the bluest part of the province- Central and Central Eastern Ontario. Wynne's home riding of Don Valley West tied for her best riding, with 13 delegates. Interestingly, and oddly- the other riding to give her 13 delegates was Nipissing. She did receive the endorsement of Nipissing's former MPP, Monique Smith. But, I can't quite explain why Wynne won in conservative leaning ridings like Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, Leeds—Grenville, Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington or Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock. Especially considering the fact that Wynne is widely seen as the “left” candidate- at least compared to Pupatello. My only explanation comes down to religion. This region of the province is highly Protestant, and while I'm not sure what relgion (if any) Wynne is, it's clear that with a name like Pupatello, she certainly is not.

Pupatello

Pupatello has built her delegate lead on a coalition of a number of regions across the province. Namely these are the urban north, Ottawa and the far east, and her home region of Southwestern Ontario. Usually this wouldn't be enough to lead any race, but in this fractured election, it's just enough, if you couple it with a spattering of random ridings in the middle of the province. From the looks of it, Pupatello's Italian heritage seems to have helped her win ridings with high Italian populations. One big exception is Ontario's most Italian riding, Vaughan which saw half its delegates go uncommitted and only two for Pupatello. Pupatello also did well in highly Catholic, and highly Francophone ridings like Ottawa—Vanier, Glengarry—Prescott—Russell and Timmins—James Bay. I'm not sure if Pupatello is even bilingual, so perhaps this support also comes down to religion. Interestingly, Pupatello's best riding was Thunder Bay—Superior North where she won 14 delegates. She was endorsed by both of Thunder Bay's MPPs. She also did well in the other Thunder Bay riding, Thunder Bay-Atikokan, where she won 12 delegates. Her next best ridings were highly Francophone Glengarry—Prescott—Russell and Essex where she won 13 delegates each. Essex is right next door to her former home riding of Windsor West, where she happened to win 12 delegates.

The Ontario Liberal delegate map raises a lot of questions about how leadership contests work, and how people vote. It really is quite fascinating. Does it raise questions about tribal politics? Does it mean endorsements work? For the most part though, many of the things going on in this map are unexplainable by me. Perhaps I just need to know more about the Liberal Party? Anyways, their leadership contest is a week and a half away; and because it is a delegated convention, there will be no way to map the different rounds, so this will have to suffice for now. For more details about the delegate breakdown, click here.

Liberal change (2008-2011)

This map shows the percentage change for the Liberal Party between the 2008 and 2011 elections. In previous posts, I covered the Conservatives and the NDP change.

While the traditional colour for the Liberals is red, that colour on this map is bad for the party. The darker the red, the more the party's vote share went down. And there is a lot of red. Green on the other hand means an increase in support for the party.

The Liberals really got hit hard in the 2011 election. The once "natural governing party of Canada" fell to a measly 34 seats, down from 77 they won in 2008.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals only gained support in three seats- all in Nova Scotia. Perhaps this came from disgruntled former NDP supporters, upset with the provincial government. This may have been true, but each riding they gained in has its own story. In West Nova, the marginal Liberal gain can be attributed to those NDP supporters upset over the provincial government cancelling the Yarmouth ferry in the riding. In Cumberland--Colchester--Musquodoboit Valley, Liberal supporters supporting Independent Bill Casey may have come back home. And in Central Nova, the Liberals could only go up, having no candidate in 2008 (they had agreed not to run one against the Green's Elizabeth May). The Liberals lost every where else in the region, especially in northern New Brunswick, Saint John, Egmont in P.E.I. and in Labrador, where the Liberals lost a once strong seat to Peter Penashue of the Conservatives, who was the popular leader of the Labrador Innu Nation.

Quebec saw losses for the Liberals in every riding except Beauce. The Liberals ran a former ADQ MNA in the riding. The increase was very marginal however. Interestingly, many of the worse losses for the Liberals came in ridings with a high Anglo population, like in West Montreal, Pontiac, west Laval, Hull--Aylmer and in the Eastern Townships.

In Ontario, the Liberals gained in 7 seats. Two of those came in the Ottawa suburbs, perhaps civil servants worried about Tory job cuts. Strong campaigns in Kingston and in Guelph helped the Liberals hang on to those two marginal seats, increasing their vote to boot. Another strong campaign in Kitchener--Waterloo gave the Liberals a higher share of the vote, but they lost in another close election, a re-match from 2008. A collapse of the strong 2008 Green vote in Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound helped the Liberals increase there. And finally, the Liberals gained support in Sault Ste. Marie, where they ran the nephew of a former MP (with the same last name). In contrast, neighbouring Algoma--Manitoulin--Kaspuskasing saw on of the largest decreases for the Liberals, as well as much of the rest of Northern Ontario. Southwestern Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area were other hard hit ridings.

Western Canada was actually better for the Liberals in that their decreases were not as bad. In Manitoba, they gained in two seats. In Winnipeg North, they gained the most compared to 2008, with the popular Kevin Lamoureux who won the seat in a 2010 by-election. The Liberals also gained in Kildonan--St. Paul, where their 2008 candidate was dropped (but still remained on the ballot) due to controversial comments about 9/11. Hard not to gain from that.

In Saskatchewan, the Liberals gained marginally from their paltry 5% (4th place) performance in 2008 in the riding of Yorkton--Melville. All other ridings had losses, including a large loss of support in Desenthe--Missinippi--Churchill River where they NDP ran a strong candidate, taking much of the anti-Tory 2008 votes from the Liberals.

In Alberta, the Liberals had gains in 5 seats, three of which were in Calgary. Perhaps Calgary is moderating itself a bit, as evidenced by electing a moderate Muslim mayor in 2010? Elsewhere, the Liberals gained marginal support in Wild Rose (where they ran a judge who had made controversial comments about sexual assault) and in Medicine Hat, where they ran the mayor of Medicine Hat.

In B.C., the Liberals saw a gain in support in three ridings. Interestingly, two of those ridings were close races between the Tories and the NDP- which usually means the Liberal vote suffers due to strategic voting. These seats were Surrey North and Vancouver Island North, which were both close races in 2008 as well. The other seat the Liberals gained support in was Chilliwack--Fraser Canyon, where they ran a Chilliwack city councillor. The Liberals saw their biggest loss in the province in Esquimault--Juan de Fuca after popular Liberal MP Keith Martin retired, and opened the seat up to its traditional NDP-Tory roots.

Finally in Northern Canada, the Liberals saw a marginal gain in support in the Western Arctic (Northwest Territories) where they ran former Premier Joe Handley. Running a former Premier (Paul Okalik) in Nunavut however did not help them, where their vote went down by a fraction of a percent. The Liberals saw a large loss in the Yukon, where their MP Larry Bagnell went down in defeat. The gun registry, which the Liberals support, was very unpopular in this rural riding.

Many thanks again, to S. Smith of the U.S. Election Atlas Forum who made the map.