2017 Alberta municipal elections today

Voters in Alberta will be heading to the polls today to elect the municipal councils and school trustees in 287 of Alberta's 354 municipalities. This includes 17 of the province's 18 cities (Lloydminster, which is partly in Saskatchewan holds elections on Saskatchewan's municipal election day), 108 towns, 89 villages, 5 specialized municipalities, 64 municipal districts, 1 improvement district and the “Special Areas Board”, which covers Alberta's three “special areas”. Alberta's 51 “summer villages” held their municipal elections in the summer.

Out of Alberta's 17 cities holding elections, only two: Alberta's largest cities of Calgary and Edmonton- elect their councils using a ward structure. The remaining 15 cities elect their councils on an at-large basis. However, in most of Alberta's 69 mainly rural municipal districts and specialized municipalities, councils are elected from wards or “divisions”. In most of the municipal districts, mayors and reeves (equivalent of mayor) are not directly elected by voters, but elected from within the municipal council, much like how Premiers are chosen in Nunavut and the Northwest Territories. Some towns and most villages do not have direct elections for mayor either.

Across the province, there will be no election for head of council (mayor or reeve) in the municipalities of Bashaw, Bonnyville, Bow Island, Brazeau County, Brooks, Cardston, Coalhurst, Cold Lake, Crowsnest Pass, Daysland, Eckville, Fairview, Grimshaw, Hanna, High Level, Jasper, Killam, Lamont, Manning, Mayerthorpe, McLennan, Milk River, Millet, Morinville, Olds, Picture Butte, Provost, Rimbey, Sedgewick, Sexsmith, Slave Lake, Standard, Stettler, Swan Hills, Sylvan Lake, Three Hills, Valleyview, Vulcan, Wainwright and Wembley. Entire councils were acclaimed, meaning there will be no elections at all in the municipalities of Barnwell, Bashaw, Beiseker, Bittern Lake, Breton, Castor, Cereal, Champion, Chauvin, Coalhurst, Cremona, Czar, Daysland, Dewberry, Donalda, Donnelly, Eckville, Ferintosh, Girouxville, Halkirk, Hill Spring, Hussar, Irma, Kananaskis Imrpovement District, Killam, Lomond, Lougheed, Manning, Mayerthorpe, McLennan, Munson, Myrnam, Nobleford, Onoway, Peace No. 135, Ranchland No. 66, Rockyford, Rosalind, Rosemary, Sedgewick, Standard, Valleyview, Wabamun, Warburg, Warner No. 5, Waskateneau, Wembley and Youngstown. In Beaverlodge, Bowden, Spirit River and Viking, only elections for mayor will occur, as the entire remainder of their councils were acclaimed. And finally, Not enough candidates came forward for Kanasnaskis Improvement District, County of Forty Mile No. 8, Cowley, Hines Creek and Vauxhall.

Calgary

In both of Alberta's two major cities (Calgary and Edmonton), both incumbent mayors are running for re-election. Of the two, only the mayoral race in Calgary will be competitive as incumbent mayor Naheed Nenshi faces stiff competition from Bill Smith, the former president of the provincial Progressive Conservative Party. There are eight other candidates running for mayor, including fiscal conservative city councillor Andre Chabot, who is running in third place. 

Calgary's main mayoral candidates

Polls are split on the outcome of today's election; Mainstreet Research has consistently shown Smith ahead, with their final poll published Friday giving Smith a 13 point lead over Nenshi (52% to 39%). However, a poll conducted by Forum Research for the Canadian Municipal Election Study shows the opposite result, giving Nenshi a 17 point lead (50% to 33%). The methodologies of the two polls differ; Mainstreet was done by IVR while the Forum poll was done online from a sample drawn originally from a telephone recruit. The Forum poll was done over a longer period of time (September 28 to October 12) with a smaller sample (n=843) size compared to Mainstreet's poll of 1500 respondents done over just two days (October 10 to 11). While I have more faith in the phone-to-web methodology, the longer period of time in field raises some doubt as to the accuracy of the Forum poll. On the flip side, Mainstreet has consistently shown Smith to be leading among younger voters, which makes absolutely no sense. One thing is for sure though, municipal elections are hard to poll for, thanks to them typically having lower turnouts. The Calgary mayoral race will not only be interesting for the clash of its two front-runners, but also a clash of competing polling firms and their methodologies.

So, why could such a popular mayor potentially lose? Well, the obvious answer is Calgary is a very conservative city, but that only scratches the surface, as it has had a history of electing more moderate mayors (Nenshi's predecessor, Dave Bronconnier was a card-carrying Liberal). The big reason is the desire to have a conservative at all at some level of government in the city. After all, this is the first ever municipal election in the province while under an NDP administration. And with the much-hated Justin Trudeau's Liberals in power on a federal level, local conservatives are thirsty for a conservative municipal government, something that Nenshi does not represent. Nenshi is also seen as being an arrogant “charismatic brainiac”, as Macleans puts it, and has admitted to being “irritating” which is sure to put off more populist leaning voters.

Nenshi has been the city's mayor since 2010, when he won with an insurgent candidacy, harnessing the power of social media to engage voters with his platform, en route to winning 40% of the vote in a three-way race. His election was a big surprise, due to his more progressive politics in a city known for its conservatism. With his win, Nenshi became the first Muslim mayor of a major North American city, and in 2014 was named “World Mayor” by the City Mayors Foundation. In 2013, Nenshi was easily re-elected to the city's top post, as incumbent mayors often do in their second elections. Nenshi won 74% of the vote in his race against former Tory MLA Jon Lord, who won 21% of the vote. In his win, Nenshi won every single ward in the city. His best ward was Ward 8, which covers the inner-city area, where he won 83% of the vote. He also did very well in Ward 3 (winning 81%), which is in the city's northeast corner. This area is home to a large number of immigrants and tends to vote Liberal or NDP in provincial and federal elections (as does Ward 8). Nenshi's worst ward was Ward 10, located in the city's east end, which was also his worst ward in 2010. There, he still won 61% of the vote. Ward 10 is not the most conservative part of the city, but it is the ward of fiscally conservative councillor Andre Chabot.

2013 ward map

2017 ward map

The City of Calgary's ward map has changed for this election. The city will continue to have 14 wards, but population shifts in the city means the north half of the city will gain a ward, while the southern half of the city loses one. The north will now have the same number of councillors as the south. The most significant changes to the map came in the northeast of the corner, which sees Ward 3 move completely west of the Deerfoot Trail, which has a domino effect, as Ward 5 moves north to compensate, forcing Ward 10 to also move north, and also Ward 9.

While there is a progressive vs. conservative fight at the top of the ticket, there are several wards where there will be similar ideological battles for council seats, thanks in part to various conservatives in the city organizing to defeat progressive and moderate leaning candidates. Races to watch (with thanks to Calgary resident njall from the US Election Atlas forum):

- Ward 3 councillor Jim Stevenson is not running for re-election, opening this seat up. Polling done by the right wing advocacy group “Commons Sense Calgary” shows this as a close race between centrist Jyoti Gondek and moderate progressive Ian McAnerin.

- Thanks to the ward redistribution, Ward 5 councillor Ray Jones is running in Ward 10, which covers much of the same territory. This has created an open race in the ward. Polling suggests George Chahal has a healthy lead here, but there are a lot of undecideds in this minority-heavy ward.

- Ward 6 councillor Richard Pootmans is not running for re-election. Conservative candidate Jeff Davison has the lead in polling, with centrist Esmahan Razavi in second place.

- Ward 7 progressive-leaning incumbent Druh Farrell is in a tight race against centrist candidate Brent Alexander in this ward.

- Ward 8 progressive-leaning incumbent Evan Woolley is in a tight race against conservative-leaning candidate Chris Davis

- Ward 9 progressive-leaning incumbent Gian-Carlo Carra is in a tight race against conservative-leaning candidate Cheryl Link

- Ward 5 incumbent councillor Ray Jones, a moderate conservative is running Ward 10 where he has a decent lead with a lot of undecideds. There are 10 other candidates running against him, and all are polling in single digits.

- Another open seat is Ward 11 where Manning Institute researcher Jeromy Farkas has a decent lead in polling over a split opposition.

In all the other wards, the incumbents are conservative leaning and are though to be shoe-ins to be re-elected.

Edmonton

In contrast to the mayoral race in Calgary, the one in Edmonton is sure to be a snoozer. You see, mayor Don Iveson is on his second election, which usually means a cake-walk election for incumbent mayors. And that is exactly what he is about to get. Iveson faces no serious challengers, and polling backs this up. Mainstreet's latest poll has him winning leading with 46%, 39 points ahead of his nearest rival, perennial candidate (and former Wildrose candidate) Don Koziak, who was at 7%. 35% of people are undecided, but I have a feeling many of those people will not even vote. A poll conducted by Leger conducted a couple of weeks ago showed a near-identical result, with Iveson leading over Koziak (45% to 7%). In addition to Iveson and Koziak, there are 11 other candidates running for mayor.

Edmonton's two main mayoral candidates

The 2013 mayoral election in Edmonton was supposed to be a three-way race, but Iveson, a two-term city councillor was easily elected with 62% of the vote, defeating former Liberal MLA Karen Leibovici who won 19% of the vote and councillor (now Conservative MP) Kerry Diotte, who won 15% of the vote. Iveson's best ward was Ward 8, which covers the Strathcona part of the city, an area that regularly votes NDP in provincial and federal elections, and is easily the most left wing part of the city. There, he won 70% of the vote. Iveson's worst ward was Ward 1, which covers West Edmonton, an area where Leibovici represented when she was an MLA.

With the race for mayor being all but decided, the real races in the city will be for the city's 12 council seats. Like Calgary, Edmonton saw its ward boundaries change, but they were much more minor in scope. The most significant change was between the borders of wards 9 and 10 and between wards 11 and 12, to account for the growing suburbs in the south end of the city. Ward 10 gains the neighbourhoods of Twin Brooks, Blackburne, Blackmud Creek, Cashman, Cavanagh, Callaghan and Allard from Ward 9, while Ward 12 gains the neighbourhoods of Minchau, Weinlos, Bisset, Pollard Meadows, Daily Grove and Crawford Plains from Ward 11.

2013 ward map

2017 ward map

According to political scientist John Brennan, these are the city council races to watch in Edmonton:

- Ward 3 incumbent Dave Loken has had the support of mayor Don Iveson, which is a rarity in municipal politics. He is being challenged by a number of strong candidates, which might divide his opposition in the ward.

- Ward 4 is an open race with former Liberal MLA Ed Gibbons deciding to not run for re-election. Brennan believes the main candidates will be Rocco Caterina (son of councillor Tony Caterina, a Tory), New Democrat Aaron Paquette, public servant Alison Poste and Tricia Velthuizen, a research analyst for the new United Conservative Party.

- Ward 5 is another open race with incumbent Michael Oshry not running for re-election. The race will be between four main candidates, businesswoman Sarah Hamilton who was endorsed by former mayor Stephen Mandel, a Tory; Dawn Newton an active member of the Women's Advocacy Voice of Edmonton; Miranda Jimmy, an indigenous woman who is the program manager of the Edmonton Heritage Council; and David Xiao, the former PC MLA for Edmonton-McClung, which covers part of this ward.

- Ward 6 incumbent Scott McKeen, a former columnist for the Edmonton Journal may see a challenge from businessman Tish Prouse who lost his bid in Ward 7 in 2013 and from another businessman, Bill Knight.

- Ward 7 will see Tory incumbent Tony Caterina face off against two progressive opponents who may split the vote: Kris Andreychuk, the city's supervisor of public safety and Mimi Williams, a perennial candidate and activist who received the endorsement form the Edmonton and District Labour Council.

- Ward 8 is home to the city's most left wing city councillor, Ben Henderson. He is facing off against two other centre-left candidates, James Kosowan and Kristen Goa, both New Democrats.

- Ward 9 is an open seat, thanks to incumbent councillor Bryan Anderson not running for re-election. Brennan sees this race as being between engineer Tim Cartmell and physician Rob Agostinis. Cartmell has the endorsement of Anderson, and a former Tory MLA, while Agostinis has the endorsement of the Edmonton and District Labour Council.

Red Deer

With over 100,000 people, Red Deer is now the third largest municipality in the province, having passed Strathcona County in the last census. It is also the largest municipality in the province without a municipal ward structure. All eight city councillors are elected on an at-large basis; Each voter in the city votes for eight councillors, and the eight candidates with the most votes are elected. In 2013, voters had a chance to change that in a plebiscite which asked voters whether or not they would like to have a ward system in place, but voters overwhelmingly opposed the measure, with just 28% of voters supporting the idea. 

Red Deer mayoral candidates

The race for mayor of Red Deer is between incumbent mayor Tara Veer and Sean Burke, who is owns a digital advertising provider business. Veer, who had been a city councillor was elected as mayor of the city in 2013, defeating fellow councillor Cindy Jefferies in a narrow 46% to 39% victory. This time it is unlikely to be as close. Her main challenger is focusing on social issues such as homelessness, and is an admitted recovering crystal meth addict, which may not fly well in this conservative city. Veer for her part is more conservative leaning, having worked for a Conservative MP in the past. 

Red Deer polling division map used in 2013

In the 2013 election, Veer won all but four of the polling divisions in the city, getting her best results in the city's more conservative, newer suburbs. Her best polling station covers the Clearview Ridge area in the city's northeast, where she won 58% of the vote. Jeffries appealed more to voters in the more left leaning central part of the city, where she won the remaining four polling divisions. She won a majority of votes in just poll, an area that covers the Downtown part of the city, where she won 54% of the vote.

Many thanks to the City of Red Deer's election office which sent me last election's poll division map, which could not be found on the web.

Strathcona County

The fourth largest municipality in Alberta is Strathcona County, a “specialized municipality” mainly consisting of the Hamlet of Sherwood Park, a large suburb on Edmonton's eastern fringe. Over 70% of the county's residents live in Sherwood Park, which is otherwise unincorporated. From Edmonton, the county runs north to Fort Saskatchewan and the North Saskatchewan River, east to Elk Island National Park, and south past Cooking Lake. The county elects a mayor, and eight councillors, one from each of the county's eight wards. Five of the wards are located in Sherwood Park, and the remaining three represent the more rural parts of the municipality. 

 

Strathcona County's main mayoral candidates

The race for mayor of Strathcona County will be an interesting one, as there are four credible candidates, three of which have some sort of partisan background. The only one who doesn't is the incumbent mayor, Roxanne Carr, who is nonetheless conservative enough to be the mayor of an Alberta suburb. Before becoming mayor in 2013, Carr sat on County council, representing Ward 2, which covers the north-central part of Sherwood Park. In addition to her, the other candidates are:

-Former PC MLA Jacquie Fenske, who represented the rural northern part of Strathcona County when she represented the riding of Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville from 2012 to 2015. She was previously a county councillor, representing Ward 5, which covered that same rural northern part of the county.

- Former mayor Linda Osinchuk, who was mayor from 2010 to 2013 when she was defeated by Carr in a very close two-way race. Since her defeat, Osinchuk ran in the 2015 election for the Wildrose Party in the riding of Sherwood Park, finishing in third place. Interestingly, the woman she beat to become mayor in 2010 (Cathy Olesen) was her PC opponent in 2015, who finished in second place behind the NDP. Before becoming mayor, Osinchuk represented Ward 3 on County council, which covers the south-central part of Sherwood Park.

- Rod Frank, who was the Liberal candidate in the 2015 federal election in Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan, coming in 2^nd place behind the Conservative candidate, winning 20% of the vote. Interestingly, Frank is eschewing the fact he ran as a Liberal, and claims to have run as a “fiscal conservative and social progressive”, which doesn't really describe the 2015 Liberal Party platform in my opinion.

- Finally the candidate who will likely place last is David Dixon, who is running on the more progressive platform of the five candidates. His past political experience includes running for mayor of the District of North Vancouver in 2005, where he placed last with 6% of the vote.

The 2013 election saw an interesting divide in the County, and was only possible due to the sheer closeness of the result. Carr defeated Osinchuk by fewer than 500 votes, winning 51% to Osinchuk's 49%. The divide was not urban vs. rural as one might expect, but rather north vs. south. Carr, who represented a ward in northern Sherwood Park as councillor, won the five more northerly wards in the county, while Osinchuk, who represented a ward in southern Sherwood Park when she was a councillor, won that one ward in Sherwood Park and the two southerly rural wards. Carr's top ward was Ward 2 (59%), where she was the councillor and Osinchuk's best ward was Ward 6 (54%) in the rural southwest. 

Strathcona County's ward map

The 2017 ward map will be nearly identical to the 2013 map, save for a minor border change between Wards 3 and 6.

Lethbridge

Lethbridge is Alberta's fourth largest city, and just like Red Deer, it has no wards, electing its eight councillors on an at-large basis. The Lethbridge mayoral race will be between incumbent mayor Chris Spearman, University of Lethbridge student and Indigenous activist Martin Heavy Head and perennial council candidate Bob Janzen. Spearman was first elected as mayor in 2013, defeating three other candidates. Prior to that he was a businessman and had also run in the 2010 mayoral election, narrowly losing. He will likely win re-election, as his opponents are not as strong. His main opponent will likely be Heavy Head, who became the first Indigenous person to run for Lethbridge City Council in 2013, winning over 4000 votes, 1700 behind the eight place spot needed to be elected. Janzen has also run for council in the past, winning 1572 votes in 2004 and 938 votes in 2010.

Lethbridge's main mayoral candidates

The 2013 race in Lethbridge saw Spearman elected mayor with 46% of the vote. His next closest rival was city councillor Bridget Mearns, who had worked for a number of conservative politicians in the past. In total, she won 30% of the vote, 3800 votes behind Spearman. Spearman won every polling division in the city, but none of them with the majority of votes. His support was very evenly distributed, winning 49% of the vote in his best poll (which covers the Copperwood neighbourhood in the southwest of the city) and winning 42% of the vote in his worst poll, which covers the Downtown area of the city. His support was slightly better in the more conservative suburbs of the city, and worse in the left leaning inner-city.

Lethbridge polling division map used in 2013

 

Wood Buffalo

Up in the northeast corner of the province is the sprawling Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo, home to Fort McMurray and not much else (just a number of small villages). Wood Buffalo happens to be the fourth largest municipality in the country in terms of geographic area. As it is home to a large non-permanent population, and due to a giant Wildfire that ravaged Fort McMurray at the time of the 2016 census, it is hard to gauge exactly how many people live in the municipality. Some estimates have the population being over 100,000, but the census reported 72000 people in the 62000 sq. km municipality, 67000 of those 72000 live(d) in Fort McMurray.

Wood Buffalo Municipal Council is elected via a ward system. The municipality has four wards; Ward 1 covers Fort McMurray and elects six at-large councillors. Ward 2 covers the northern two thirds of the municipality, and elects two at-large councillors. Wards 3 and 4 in the south elect one councillor each. Representation on council does not accurately reflect population; despite over 90% of the municipality's population living in Fort McMurray, its weight on council is only 60%.

Long time mayor Melissa Blake will not be running for re-election, making the race for mayor an open one for the first time since 2004. The candidates to replace her are realtor Allan Grandison, ward 3 councillor Allan Vinni, helicopter pilot Anthony Needham and former Tory MLA Don Scott, who represented the riding of Fort McMurray-Conklin from 2012 to 2015.

Wood Buffalo ward map

St. Albert

St. Albert is a suburb of Edmonton, home to 65,000 people. Its mayor, Nolan Crouse, is retiring after 10 years as mayor. He had decided to run for the provincial Liberal Party's leadership earlier this year, but dropped out after just two days. The race to replace him is between incumbent councillors Cathy Heron and Cam Mackay and former councillor Malcolm Parker. According to Dave Cournoyer's blog, the race has been divisive, as is apparently the norm in the city. On council, voters will elect six at-large councillors.

Medicine Hat

In southeastern Alberta is the province's sixth largest city of Medicine Hat. Its mayor, Ted Clugston is running for re-election after first being elected mayor in 2013. There are three candidates running against Clugston; former alderman (councillor) John Hamill, local broadcaster and teacher Scott Raible and Thomas “Tall Bike Tommy” Fougere, a local outspoken vlogger. On council, voters will elect eight at-large councillors.

Grande Prairie

In northwestern Alberta is the province's seventh largest city of Grande Prarie. Its mayor, Bill Given is running for re-election for the second time, after first being elected in 2010. Running against him is Grande Prairie Petroleum Association member Dick Baillie, Theodore Nikiforuk and Rony Rajput, who has technically dropped out of the race due to finding out he technically lives outside of the city, but will still appear on the ballot. On council, voters will elect eight at-large councillors.

Airdrie

Airdrie, an exurb of Calgary, is the fastest growing city in the province, growing from 43,000 to 62,000 people between the last two censuses. Last election saw its incumbent mayor, Peter Brown re-elected with no opposition, after first being elected in 2010 when the city was nearly half of its current size. This time around he is facing competition from four candidates. Brown will face some stiff competition from his deputy mayor, Fred Burley as well as volunteer Marie Lauer, senior manager Blaine Astra and retired businessman Bernie Biever. On council, voters will elect six at-large councillors.

Rocky View County

Rocky View County is a rural municipal district that surrounds the City of Calgary on its west, north and east sides, fully surrounding the City of Airdrie, and other exurban Calgary municipalities as well. It is the largest municipality in the province without a direct election for mayor. In fact, Rocky View doesn't have a mayor, it has a reeve, and he or she will be chosen from among the County's council following the election. The county is divided into 9 divisions, each electing one councillor. Incumbent reeve Greg Boehilke represents Division 6, located in the northeast corner of the county, and is running for re-election there against John McMurray. 

Rocky View County division map

There are of course many other races across the province, but those are the ones in the 11 largest municipalities. Polls will be closing at 8pm Mountain Time, which is 10pm Eastern.

Provincial by-elections today

While we are in the midst of a federal election campaign, there are two provincial by-election campaigns that might briefly draw the spotlight away. Today, voters in the Ontario riding of Simcoe North and in the Alberta riding of Calgary-Foothills will be heading to the polls to elect new members of their respective provincial legislatures. Both by-elections were called for today, early enough in the extra-long federal election campaign so as to not be too much of a distraction from it. And before Labour day to boot, which will likely be when the federal election campaign really kicks off.

Simcoe North, Ontario

As you may recall, Patrick Brown, a Conservative backbencher in Stephen Harper's government ran for leader of the Ontario Progressive Conservatives, and won, defeating early frontrunner Christine Elliott, wife of the late Jim Flaherty, Canada's former Finance Minister. Brown's candidacy was originally considered a long shot, but he had a strong campaign, gaining endorsements from people like Wayne Gretzky and Indian Prime Minister Narenda Modhi. After his election, Brown resigned his seat of Barrie in the House of Commons.

After Brown's election as leader of the Ontario Tories, the question turned to who would give up their seat so that Brown could sit in Queen's Park. Barrie was won by the Liberals in the 2014 provincial election, so that was out of the question. The question would linger until July when Simcoe North MPP Garfield Dunlop announced he would resign his seat for Brown. Dunlop was a noted opponent of Brown in his leadership race, so may have resigned so that he didn't have to work under Brown as leader. What was even more helpful for Brown is that Simcoe North is located immediately adjacent to Barrie, the riding he represented in the House of Commons.

Geography

Simcoe North is a mostly rural riding located in Central Ontario, north of Barrie. It runs from the Penetanguishene Peninsula abutting into Georgian Bay on the west, to the northern shores of Lake Simcoe in the southeast, and the Severn River in the north. The riding contains three major population centres; Orillia in the eastern part of the riding, and the twin towns of Midland and Penetanguishene in the west. Additionally, the riding contains five townships; Tiny, Tay, Severn, Oro-Medonte and Ramara, plus two Chippewa (Ojibwe) Indian Reserves; Christian island (in Georgian Bay) and Mnjikaning First Nation, home of Casino Rama.

Demographics

Most of the riding is of British Isles descent (English, Scottish and Irish), with a significant population (one sixth) reporting French ancestry as well. One in ten residents of the riding report having German ancestry. In all, 89% of the riding is White, with most of the rest being Aboriginal (9%). English is the mother tongue of 90% of inhabitants and there is a small residual French population (4%), most of whom live in the historically French community of Penetanguishene and the surrounding peninsula. German is the mother tongue of just over 1% of the population. 72% of the population is Christian, most of whom are Protestants. Just over a quarter of the population is Catholic, and just over a quarter of the population belongs to no religion. The riding is slightly poorer than the province as a whole, with the average individual income being $38,000 while the median income is $29,000 (compared to Ontario which is $42,000 and $31,000 respectively). The leading industries in the riding are Health care and social assistance, retail and manufacturing.

History

Simcoe North was created in 1996 when the Mike Harris government reduced the number of seats in Ontario to match the ridings used in the federal House of Commons. Simcoe North was mostly created out of Simcoe East, which included both Penetanguishene and Orillia. The remaining part of the riding came from Muskoka-Georgian Bay, which included Midland. Since its first election in 1999, Garfield Dunlop has been the riding's MPP. The riding is generally a safe Tory seat, though Dunlop was never able to win more than 55% of the vote. His lowest share of the vote was in 2014, when Dunlop won 44% of the vote, but was still able to beat the Liberal's Fred Larsen by nearly 6000 votes. Federally, the riding has been Conservative since 2006, and has voted for the Tories for much of its history.

Including the riding's predecessor of Simcoe East, the area has voted for the Tories in every election since 1937. The last time the Liberals won here was in 1934. The last time a party on the left won here was in 1919 when the United Farmers of Ontario claimed the seat.

MPPs:

Simcoe North (1867-1874)

1) Wm. Lount, Liberal (1867-1871)

2) W.D. Ardagh, Cons. (1871-1874)

Simcoe East (1875-1999)

3) Jn. Kean, Cons. (1875-1879)

4) H.H. Cook, Liberal (1879-1882)

5) G.A. Drury, Liberal (1882-1890)

6) A. Miscampbell, Cons. (1890-1902)

7) J.B. Trudhope, Liberal (1902-1911)

8) J.I. Hartt, Cons. (1911-1919)

9) J.B. Johnston, U.F.O. (1919-1923)

10) Wm. Finlayson, Cons. (1923-1934)

11) G.E. Tanner, Liberal (1934-1937)

*) Wm. Finlayson, Cons. (1937-1939) 2^nd time

12) G.A. Drew, Cons. (1939-1943)

13) J.D. McPhee, Prog. Cons. (1943-1954)

14) L.A. Letherby, Prog. Cons. (1954-1967)
15) G.E. Smith, Prog. Cons. (1967-1981)

16) A.K. McLean, Prog. Cons. (1981-1999)

Simcoe North (1999-present)

17) Garfield Dunlop, Prog. Cons (1999-2015)

Political geography

With Dunlop receiving his lowest ever vote share and the Liberals receiving their highest vote share since 2003 in last year's election, the 2014 election gave us a good map to identify political cleavages in the riding. Dunlop's near-6000 vote victory allowed him to win most polls in the riding, but he only won a majority of the vote in one municipality (Severn). He was strong in most of the rural parts of the riding, winning 49% in Ramara, 48% in Oro-Medonte, and 44% in Tay. His weakest township was Tiny, where he won 38% of the vote. He was weaker in the urban areas, but still managed to win the most votes in Orillia (41%) and Midland (37%). The Liberals won just one municipality, Penetanguishene, with 41% of the vote to Dunlop's 31%. This Liberals were especially strong on the Penetanguishene Peninsula, home to the region's ancestral Francophone population. The Liberals also won the Christian Island Indian Reserve with 52% of the vote, but the NDP won the Mnjikaning First Nation with 42% of the vote. The Green Party was strongest in Tiny Township, where they won 12% of the vote.

Simcoe North results by municipality in 2014

Except for 2011 when Dunlop won nearly every poll in the riding, the Liberals at least are usually able to win the Penetanguishene Peninsula area. In 2003, they also won Midland and parts of Orillia, but these areas swung back to the Tories in 2007. During this time Dunlop has easily won the more rural parts of the riding.

Federally, the Conservatives won nearly every poll in 2011, but prior elections again showed the Penetanguishene Peninsula area vs. the rest of the riding cleavage. In the 2004 election, which was the last time the Liberal's won the seat, they had won every poll in Penetanguishene and Midland, and won most of the polls in Orillia. They even won many of the rural polls in the riding, though most still voted for the Conservatives.

Outlook

Leaders almost always win the by-elections they run in if they've found themselves outside the legislature, wanting to get in. One notable exception is the 2009 by-election in Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock which saw PC leader John Tory lose in a close race in a safe conservative seat, which ended his leadership of the provincial Tories. In the past, the Liberals and Tories usually opt to not run against the leader of the other party in these by-elections, but this has not been the case recently.

Opposing Patrick Brown is Liberal candidate and retired teacher and Orillia resident Fred Larsen, who also ran for the Liberals in last year's election as well as in 2011. The NDP is running Elizabeth Van Houtte, a professor at Laurentian Universiy, while the Greens are running coordinator Valerie Powell, who was the federal Green candidate in the 2008 and 2011 elections.

Latest polls have shown the governing Liberals are in third place in Ontario, while the Tories and NDP are duking it out for first place. Considering Simcoe North is generally considered a safe Tory seat, where the NDP is weak, there is little doubt that Brown will easily win the riding, allowing him to enter Queen's Park. The real race will be for second place, between the Liberals and the NDP. The NDP did manage to finish 2^nd in the federal election, so it is possible, though they have not finished ahead of the Liberals provincially since 1990 here. However, this riding heavily trended Liberal in 2014 (with a swing of 10%, 9 points ahead of their provincial swing), so the Liberals may just hold on to second place. In the very least, it might give us some indication how the riding might vote in next month's federal election. We'll see for sure when polls close at 9pm.

Calgary-Foothills, Alberta

When the NDP won an historic majority government in Alberta last May, its biggest casualty was then-Premier Jim Prentice. A social democratic party forming government in what is considered to be Canada's conservative heartland was a clear sign that voters were not only sick and tired of 44 years of Progressive Conservative government, they were tired of the perceived arrogance of Premier Prentice. Voters in his riding of Calgary-Foothills disagreed though, and re-elected Prentice, just six months after he first entered the legislature in a by-election. On election day though, Prentice saw the writing on the wall, and resigned his seat in the legislature immediately, despite just getting re-elected, prompting another by-election in Calgary-Foothills. This by-election will mark the first electoral test for the new NDP government, which may be past its honeymoon at this point.

I last profiled Calgary-Elbow in a blog post last year, so I will just take a look recent events in the riding.

The October 2014 by-election was at the height of Prentice's popularity, and he enjoyed and easy 18-point win over his Wildrose opponent, Kathy Macdonald. Prentice won with 58% of the vote, enjoying a 4% two-party swing from the 2012 election. Despite this, the Wildrose Party made some inroads into the new neighbourhoods in the north part of the riding, where they failed to win any polling divisions in 2012.

Recent political geography

While the NDP did not win the riding in last May's election, they did enjoy a 29% swing in their vote from the previous by-election. Prentice hung on with 40% of the vote, defeating the NDP's Anne Wilson by 8 points. The wealthier and older neighbourhoods in the southern part of riding voted for Prentice, while the brand new subdivisions in the north of the riding voted for Wilson. By far the best neighbourhood for Prentice was the wealthy Hamptons neighbourhood, the only area where he won a majority of the vote (52%). He also won the older neighbourhood of Edgemont (43%), and the newer neighbourhoods of Kincora (37%) and Sherwood (36%), but with bare pluralities. The NDP's best neighbourhood was the brand new Sage Hill and Nolan Hill areas, where they won 39% of the vote. They also won the older, but less wealthy neighbourhood of Hidden Valley with 39% of the vote. Both of these areas were also the strongest Wildrose neighbourhoods (winning 23% and 22% respectively), and the weakest Tory ones.

Calgary-Foothill 2015 general election results by neighbourhood

Updated list of MLAs (since 1959)

Calgary Bowness (1959-1971)
* C.E. Johnston, Social Credit (1959-1967)
* L.F. Werry, Prog. Cons. (1967-1971)

Calgary-Foothills (1971-present)
* L.F. Werry, Prog. Cons. (1971-1973) continued
* S.A. McCrae, Prog. Cons. (1973-1982)
* Ms. J.S. Koper, Prog. Cons. (1982-1988)
* Mrs. P. Nelson, Prog. Cons. (1989-2004)
* L.W. Webber, Prog. Cons. (2004-2014)

* P.E.J. Prentice, Prog. Cons. (2014-2015)

Outlook

When the NDP formed government last Spring, Premier Rachel Notley did not have many MLAs with experience from which to choose her cabinet. Including herself, she only named 12 people to the cabinet, and for her, this by-election could be an excellent opportunity to inject some experience into her caucus. The NDP nominated Bob Hawkesworth to be their candidate. Hawkesworth is a former Calgary city councillor, and was an MLA for Calgary-Mountain View from 1986 to 1993. If elected, he would easily be one of the most experienced politicians in the NDP caucus, and thus instant cabinet material.

The candidate with the best chance of beating Hawkesworth is Prasad Panda, an engineer who is running for the right wing Wildrose Party. The PCs will hope to stay relevant in the riding with their candidate, businessman Blair Houston. Despite the fact that the Tories won this seat in the general election, they are still in rebuilding mode as a party. They are not only the third party in the Alberta legislature, they are in third place in the most recent province-wide poll, conducted a few months ago. While the Tories are a better fit in this well-off riding, it stands to reason that its right of centre vote will coalesce behind Prasad, to defeat Hawkesworth. It helps that the combined right wing vote was 58% in the general election. The Liberals and Alberta Party are also running candidates, while the Greens are running their leader, Janet Keeping.

A Mainstreet poll from mid-August showed Prasad at 29%, Hawkesworth at 26% and Houston at 20%. Since then, it is possible that the PC vote could have shrunk even lower, which could benefit Prasad the most. The poll does confirm that this race will be between the Wildrose and NDP.

While a loss for the NDP would be a blow for the government, it shouldn't be seen as too much of a problem, considering the riding's demographics. It is firmly a wealthy, right of centre riding after all. A loss for the PCs would be more painful, as it might be the beginning of the end for the party, as conservative Albertans might look more towards Wildrose as the conservative alternative to the NDP. A loss for the Wildrose Party wouldn't be the end of the world for them, but it is their seat to lose at this point. With a healthy lead in the polls, they should be able to take it.

Polls close at 8pm (10pm Eastern).

Alberta provincial by-elections Monday

There will be four provincial by-elections in Alberta on Monday to replace outgoing members of the Legislative Assembly. Three of the by-elections will be in the Calgary ridings of Calgary-Elbow, Calgary-Foothills and Calgary-West, while the fourth by-election will be in the riding of Edmonton-Whitemud. All four ridings elected Progressive Conservative MLAs in the 2012 provincial election, and with generally safe margins at that. These by-elections were called by Alberta's new Premier Jim Prentice, who won the Tory leadership race in early September. Prentice won despite not holding a seat in the legislature, but is running in one of the by-elections, in Calgary-Foothills. Additionally, when Prentice named his cabinet, he chose two people who were also not members of the Legislative Assembly who will also be running in Monday's by-elections.  Prentice became Premier following the resignation of the scandal-ridden Alison Redford in March.  Dave Hancock, the now former MLA for Edmonton-Whitemud served as Premier until Prentice was overwhelmingly elected as leader six months later. Since there have been no by-elections since the provincial election in 2012, these four will be the first test for the governing Progressive Conservative Party—almost a midterm, of sorts.

Calgary-Elbow

This riding, located southwest of Calgary's downtown, was represented by Premier Redford from the 2008 election until resigning the seat in August. She served as Premier of the province from 2011 until March of 2014. Redford is not the only Premier to represent the riding, as Ralph Klein held the seat from 1989 to 2007. The riding has voted in the Progressive Conservatives in every election since its creation in 1971, except for the by-election to replace Klein in 2007. In that race, the waning popularity  of the Tories was enough to give Liberal candidate Craig Cheffins a surprise 800-vote victory over his PC challenger, Brian Heninger. However, just 9 months later, Cheffins lost to Redford in the 2008 general election, by an even smaller margin of 400 votes.  Redford easily cruised to victory in the 2012 election, thanks in part to a collapsed Liberal vote, as Liberal voters went to the Red Tory to stop the threat of the more right wing Wildrose Party. In the end, the Wildrose Party candidate James Cole finished in a distant second to Redford, losing by nearly 6000 votes.


MLAs (since 1959)

Calgary Glenmore
* E.S. Watkins, Prog. Cons. (1959-1963)
* W.D. Dickie, Liberal (1963-1969); Prog. Cons. (1969-1971)

Calgary-Elbow
* D.J. Russell, Prog. Cons. (1971-1989)
* R.P. Klein, Prog. Cons. (1989-2007)
* Craig Cheffins, Liberal (2007-2008)
* Ms. A.M. Redford, Prog. Cons. (2008-2014)

Calgary-Elbow contains a number of wealthy neighbourhoods located adjacent to downtown, including Altadore, Mount Royal and Lincoln Park. The Mount Royal area is particularly wealthy, with a median household income of $250,000. The riding is named for the Elbow River, which flows through the riding from the Glenmore Reservoir to just before it crosses under 4 St.

Calgary-Elbow 2012 election results by polling division

Calgary-Elbow 2012 election results by neighbourhood

Wealth is the biggest determiner in voting habits in this riding. Historically in Liberal vs. PC races, the Liberals have won in the poorer parts of the riding, such as South Calgary, while the Tories have dominated the wealthier neighbourhoods.  In 2012, both poor and rich alike united behind Redford, who won all but two polls in the riding. In fact, she won a majority of the vote in every neighbourhood. Overall, the 58% she won in the seat was the best mark for her party in the entire city. Her best neighbourhoods were still the wealthier parts of the riding, Elbow Park being her best, which gave her 65% of the vote. Her worst neighbourhood was Glamorgan, in the far western tip of the riding, where she still managed to get 51%. The Wildrose Party managed to win one poll in Glamorgan, but their best neighbourhood was the Bel-Aire/Mayfair/Meadowlark Park area in the southeast corner of the riding. There, they won 35% of the vote, but no polls. For all of the more left leaning parties (Liberals, NDP, Alberta Party and the Evergreen Party), Calgary South was their strongest neighbourhood; their combined vote, however, still would not have been good enough for even second place.

With a surprise by-election victory for the Liberals in 2007, it is entirely possible that Calgary-Elbow could come up with another electoral surprise on Monday. Recent province-wide polls show the Progressive Conservatives at least 12 points down from the 44% they won in the 2012 election, though polls during that campaign proved to be hugely inaccurate.  A 12 point drop in support in Calgary-Elbow would not be enough for the Tories to lose the seat. With the Liberals stagnating in the polls, it seems unlikely for the Grits to pick this one up. The only other party with a chance of winning would be Wildrose, but they may be too socially conservative for this wealthy district.

The Tories are running Gordon Dirks, a former cabinet minister in his native Saskatchewan, who Prentice appointed as Minister of Education, despite Dirks not yet having a seat in the assembly. Dirks is a former teacher, school board trustee and pastor, who has faced some criticism from the gay community because of the theological principles of Dirks' former church. Wildrose is running military commander and lawyer John Fletcher, the Liberals are running lawyer Susan Wright, the NDP is running Stephanie McLean (another lawyer), and the fledgling Alberta Party is running their new leader, Greg Clark.

Calgary-Foothills

In the northwest corner of the city lies the riding of Calgary-Foothills, a suburban riding containing the neighbourhoods of Edgemont, Hamptons, Hidden Valley and the brand new neighbourhood of Symonds Valley on the fringes of the city. The riding was represented by Progressive Conservative-turned-Independent Len Webber from 2004 until he resigned last month after winning the federal Conservative nomination in the new riding of Calgary Confederation. Webber left the Progressive Conservatives in March to protest the scandal ridden government of Alison Redford.

The riding is generally upper middle class, and has been a Tory stronghold for most of its existence. Since the riding was created in 1971, it has seen only one close election when, in the 1989 election, Tory candidate Pat Nelson beat Liberal Harvey Locke by 500 votes in a three way race. In every other election in the riding's history, the Tories have won handily. In 2012, Webber beat Wildrose Party challenger Dustin Nau by over 2,000 votes.

MLAs (since 1959)

Calgary Bowness
* C.E. Johnston, Social Credit (1959-1967)
* L.F. Werry, Prog. Cons. (1967-1971)

Calgary-Foothills
* L.F. Werry, Prog. Cons. (1971-1973) continued
* S.A. McCrae, Prog. Cons. (1973-1982)
* Ms. J.S. Koper, Prog. Cons. (1982-1988)
* Mrs. P. Nelson, Prog. Cons. (1989-2004)
* L.W. Webber, Prog. Cons. (2004-2014)

In 2012, all but one poll in Calgary-Foothills went to Webber. Just one poll, in Symons Valley, went to the Wildrose. When the Liberals were somewhat competitive in 2008, the Grits did quite well in the Edgemont neighbourhood, which has a large Chinese population. In 2012, this was the Liberals' best neighbourhood, although they only won 11% of the vote there. Hamptons has been the most conservative neighbourhood in the riding in recent elections, including in 2012 when the Tories won 56% of the neighbourhood's vote. Their worst neighbourhood in 2012 was Hidden Valley, where they still won 51% of the vote. Hidden Valley was the best neighbourhood for Wildrose, but they still only managed 35%; on a side-note, Hidden Valley also has a large immigrant population.

Calgary-Foothills 2012 election results by polling division

Calgary-Foothills 2012 election results by neighbourhood

Calgary-Foothills is the riding in which Jim Prentice has decided to run. Running for the Wildrose Party is Kathy Macdonald, a retired police officer. The Liberals are running Robert Prcic, a businessman who was the Liberal candidate in Calgary-Northwest in 2012 (by the way, that was not a spelling mistake, his name is actually spelled Prcic). The NDP is running consulting firm manager Jennifer Burgess.

It is unlikely in my opinion that the Tories will lose this seat. The PC Party will be putting a lot of effort into ensuring their leader is able to win the riding so he can take his seat in the Alberta Legislature. The Tories won the seat by 20 points in 2012 and are unlikely to loose that much support in the by-election.

Calgary-West

Located in Calgary's affluent and suburban west end is the aptly named riding of Calgary-West. It is rectangular in shape and contains the neighbourhoods of Signal Hill, Strathcona Park, Christie Park, Aspen Woods, Springbank Hill and Discovery Ridge. The latter three neighbourhoods are especially wealthy, as all have median household incomes in the $150,000 range. The riding has been vacant since the end of September when its MLA, Conservative Ken Hughes, resigned to take a job in the private sector. Hughes, a former Tory MP for the southwestern Alberta riding of MacLeod, had only been an MLA since 2012.

The riding has gone Tory for much of its history, though it did go Liberal in 1993 with the election of Danny Dalla-Longa. From 1967 to 1986, the riding was represented by former Premier Peter Lougheed, who often won the seat with massive margins. The riding has been consistently conservative since the Tories won the seat back in 1997. In 2012, Hughes easily defeated the Wildrose Party candidate, Andrew Constantinidis, by over 2000 votes.


MLAs (since 1959)

*D.S. Fleming, Social Credit (1959-1967)
*E.P. Lougheed, Prog. Cons. (1967-1986)
*Ms. Elaine McCoy, Prog. Cons. (1986-1993)
*D. Dalla-Longa, Liberal (1993-1997)
*Ms. Karen Kryczka, Prog. Cons. (1997-2004)
*R. Liepert, Prog. Cons. (2004-2012)
*K.G. Hughes, Prog. Cons. (2012-2014)

Out of all four by-elections being held on Monday, it is this riding that saw the closest result in 2012. Hughes still won almost every poll in the riding, but the Wildrose Party still managed to win six polls, and tied in another. Half of the polls that they won were in the neighbourhood of Signal Hill, which was the best part of the riding for the WRP (winning 37%). For the Tories, their vote was fairly evenly distributed across the riding. There wasn't too much of a difference between their best area, Aspen Woods (where they won 54%), and their worst neighbourhood, Christie Park0( where they won 48%). Strathcona Park, in the riding's northeast corner, was the Liberals' most successful neighbourhood, as well as for the NDP and the Evergreen Party.  The combined support for all three parties, however, was far below the mark set by the Wildrose Party, even though it was the neighbourhood with the Wildrose Party's worst showing.

Calgary-West 2012 election results by polling division

Calgary-West 2012 election results by neighbourhood

If there is any riding that the Wildrose Party is able to win on Monday, it will be Calgary-West; this end of the city is very conservative. After all, the area has backed ultra conservative MP Rob Anders consistently over the years. If the Tories do drop 12 points in this riding, and only one of those points goes to the Wildrose Party, then Wildrose will win this seat. In other words, only a 7% two-party swing is needed for the Tories to lose this seat.

For the Tories, this is the only one of the four by-elections where they are not running a cabinet minister (or the Premier himself), and are in fact running hereto unknown police officer Mike Ellis. The Wildrose Party challenger is Sheila Taylor, who already holds office as a public school trustee. The Liberals are running lawyer David Khan while the NDP is running Brian Malkinson, a diesel heavy equipment supplier technician; Malkinson was the NDP's candidate in Calgary-Northwest in 2012.

My prediction is that Wildrose picks up this seat in a close race.

Edmonton-Whitemud

The lone by-election outside of Calgary will be in the riding of Edmonton-Whitemud, located in southwest Edmonton. Edmonton-Whitemud is the wealthiest riding in the city, and saw the largest Progressive Conservative percentage n the entire province in 2012 when Dave Hancock won the seat with 61% of the vote. As mentioned, Hancock served as Premier of Alberta between March and September, when he resigned his seat. The riding is roughly triangular in shape, being bordered by the North Saskatchewan River on the west, Whitemud Creek on the east and Anthony Henday Drive on the south. The riding is home to many different neighbourhoods, the largest being the new Terwillegar subdivision. The riding also includes the Riverbend area (Henderson Estates, Rhatigan Ridge), which is the wealthiest neighbourhood in the city.

While the 2012 result in the riding may give the riding the illusion of being a safe Tory seat, it has seen many close races over the years. The Tories have held it for most of the riding's existence, but the Liberals did hold it from 1989 to 1997. When the Liberals won the riding with candidate Percy Wickman in 1989, it was at the expense of the province's Premier, Don Getty. Getty, whose party still won a majority government, had to ask a member of his caucus to step aside so that he could run in a by-election to enter the Assembly. The Liberals won the seat again in 1993 with a different candidate, Mike Percy, who defeated Hancock in his first attempt to win the seat. In 1997, the Liberals weren't so lucky, with yet another candidate running, Corky Meyer, who lost to Hancock by 2000 votes. Hancock has easily won in every election since, except in 2004 when he defeated Liberal Donna Smith by just 900 votes.

MLAs (since 1959)

Strathcona West
*R.H. McKinnon, Social Credit (1959-1967)
*D.R. Getty, Prog. Cons. (1967-1971)

Edmonton-Whitemud
*D.R. Getty, Prog. Cons. (1971-1979) continued
*P. Knaak, Prog. Cons. (1979-1982)
*R.K. Alexander, Prog. Cons. (1982-1985)
*D.R. Getty, Prog. Cons. (1985-1989) 2nd time
*P.D. Wickman, Liberal (1989-1993)
*M.B. Percy, Liberal (1993-1997)
*D.G. Hancock, Prog. Cons. (1997-2014)

Hancock's 60% victory in 2012 is fairly low for “the strongest riding for a winning party in an election”, especially in Alberta. Much of the province's “strongest Tory” seats went for the populist Wildrose Party in 2012, leaving wealthier urban ridings like Edmonton-Whitemund to become the safest Tory seats in the province. Wildrose did finish 2nd in 2012, but their candidate, Ian Crawford, finished over 7000 votes behind Hancock with 16% of the vote. With a margin like that, it would come as no surprise that Hancock won every single polling division in 2012. In past elections, the poorer neighbourhoods of the riding (Terwillegar Town and Ramsay Heights in particular) have gone Liberal, while the wealthier parts of the riding have been more conservative.

Edmonton-Whitemud 2012 election results by polling division

Edmonton-Whitemud 2012 election results by neighbourhood

In 2012, Hancock won a majority of votes in every neighbourhood of the riding. His strongest neighbourhood was the wealthy Bulyea Heights / Ogilvie Ridge area in the east central part of the riding, where he won 65% of the vote. His worst neighbourhood was the Bradner Gardens / Ramsay Heights area in the north end of the riding, which is also the riding's poorest neighbourhood. There, Hancock won 54% of the vote. For Wildrose, their strongest area was the Carter Crest / Leger area in the central part of the riding, where they won 19%. For both the Liberals and NDP, their best neighbourhood was Bradner Gardens / Ramsay Heights, where they together won 23% of the vote, more than the Wildrose candidate.

Running for the Tories in Edmonton-Whitemud is former mayor Stephen Mandel, who Prentice appointed as Minister of Health last month. Mandel served as mayor of Edmonton from 2004 to 2013.  It is a fairly safe assumption in my opinion that Mandel will easily win. The question is, who will finish second? If one extrapolates current poll numbers, then the Wildrose Party, the Liberals, and the currently surging NDP all have a chance to finish 2nd in the high teens. Wildrose is running Tim Grover, a business owner, the Liberals are running registered nurse Donna Wilson, while the NDP is running Bob Turner, a doctor at the Cross Cancer Institute.

Outlook

For the Tories, a victory on Monday night would require maintaining all four ridings; losing any one of them would be a blow to the Premiership of Jim Prentice. For the Wildrose Party, a victory would be winning just one of the four ridings. It is unlikely that either the Liberals or the NDP will win any of the four seats, but a “victory” on election night for either party might just be a second place finish in any seat, but most likely in Edmonton-Whitemud.  We will find out what will happen after the polls close at 8pm (10 Eastern).