In the southeast corner of Manitoba
lies the riding of Provencher, part three of my four part series in
profiling Monday's federal by-election ridings. Provencher is a
mostly rural riding that spans two different linguistic communities
and is most notable for being the riding that sent Louis Riel to
parliament. The riding is centred on the city of Steinbach, southeast
of Winnipeg, but also includes a number of small communities, such as
Ste. Anne and Lac du Bonnet. Provencher was vacated in July, when
its scandal-ridden MP, (now) former Minister of Public Safety Vic
Toews resigned.
History
Provencher was one
of the original four ridings carved out of Manitoba when it became a
province in 1870. By-elections were held in these four ridings in
1871 to elect the first members of parliament for the new province.
Even in 1871, Provencher was located in the southeast corner of
Manitoba. Although, at the time the eastern boundary of the province
was at 96th meridian, further west than where it currently
sits at, at about 95°10' W. Since 1871, Provencher has always at
least consisted of the areas south of Steinbach, and east of the Red
River. And almost from the very beginning, the riding has had a
strong presence from the Franco-Manitoban and German Mennonite
communities. To this day, both German and French are the native
tongues of at least 10% of the riding respectively.
In 1871, the
riding was dominated by French Metis settlers. At the time, the
riding consisted of St. Boniface, today a largely Franco-Manitoban
community in Winnipeg, as well as the Red River Valley south of
Winnipeg and the rural area towards the east, including the
Franco-Manitoban community of Ste. Anne. To this day, there is a
Provencher Bridge and a Provencher Boulevard in St. Boniface. Over
time, Mennonites from Eastern Europe and Germany began settling in
the riding, especially in the Steinbach area, and a Mennonite Reserve
was provided for them in what is now Hanover Municipality and
Steinbach. The riding boundaries remained largely the same until
1914 (except for the eastern boundary of the province being
formalized in 1891), when the northern boundary was shifted south to
a straight line through Steinbach, separating Ste. Anne and St.
Boniface from the rest of the riding. These areas were given to the
new riding of Springfield. The riding also gained some territory
around MacDonald rural municipality. The splitting of Steinbach only
lasted until 1924, when the northern boundary was shifted northward
slightly, while the western boundary was moved eastward closer to the
Red River. In 1952, the riding expanded slightly westward, but no
major changes occurred until 1966. In that year, the riding was
expanded northward all the way to Berens River, more than half way up
Lake Winnipeg. Also at the time, the western boundary was moved to
the Red River south of Winnipeg. This shift brought Ste. Anne back to
the riding, as well it added in Springfield Rural Municipality and
Lac du Bonnet, but removed the Morris area for the first time in the
riding's history. In 1976, the riding's northern boundary was pushed
even further north, to the 57th parallel, while the
western boundary was altered slightly. In 1987, the riding's
boundaries were shifted back south, and the riding began to look
similar to today. Morris rejoined the riding, as well as the
Rhineland Rural Municipality, while Springfield was removed. The
northern boundary was brought down to Powerview-Pine Falls close to
where it is today. In 1996, most of Springfield rejoined the riding,
while the northern boundary was moved south Pinawa. In 2003, the
riding lost Rhineland, but gained the area between Pinawa and
Poweverview-Pine Falls.
List of Provencher's MPs:
- Pierre Delorme, Cons. (1871-1872)
- G.-E. Cartier, Cons. (1872-1873)
- L.D. Riel, Independent (1873-1875)
- A.G.B. Bannatyne, Liberal (1875-1878)
- Jos. Dubuc, Cons. (1878-1879)
- A.A.C. Lariviere, Cons. (1889-1904)
- J.E. Cyr, Liberal (1904-1908)
- J.P. Molloy, Liberal (1908-1921)
- A.-L. Beaubien, Liberal (1921-1940)
- Rene Jutras, Liberal (1940-1957)
- W.H. Jorgenson, Prog. Cons. (1957-1968)
- M.G. Smerchanski, Liberal (1968-1972)
- A.J. Epp, Prog. Cons. (1972-1993)
- D. Iftody, Liberal (1993-2000)
- V. Toews, Canadian Alliance (2000-2003), Cons. (2003-2013)
The riding was
mostly represented by Franco-Manitobans until 1957, including two
Metis', Pierre Delorme and Louis Riel. (Although, Riel never sat in
Parliament, and was expelled from the legislature in 1875 after being
elected three times- one of those times was a by-election following
him being unseated). In 1972, the riding elected its first Mennonite
in Jake Epp. Toews is also a Mennonite.
Despite the riding
electing an equal amount of Conservatives as Liberals in its history,
the riding is a very safe Conservative riding. Toews has won
comfortably since first being elected in 2000. Tories also dominated
this riding between 1957 and 1993, losing only one election thanks to
Trudeaumania. Tories also dominated the riding from 1871 to 1904
(losing only to Louis Riel and to the Liberals in 1875). Liberals
held the riding uninterrupted from 1904 to 1957. The Chretien wave of
1993 helped the Liberals win the seat back in 1993, and a divided
right wing kept the riding Liberal in 1997.
Today, at nearly
100,000 people, Provencher is the most populated and also fastest growing riding in Manitoba. This has meant that the
federal riding boundary commission had to make the riding smaller,
when it released its final report earlier this year. The report has
the northern boundary of the riding shifting southward once again,
leaving the communities of Pinawa, Lac du Bonnet and Powerview-Pine
Falls to join the new riding of Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman. The
western boundary will also change, with both the Town and Rural
Municipality of Morris being removed for the riding once again, and
given to neighbouring Portage—Lisgar. Also, all of Springfield will
be united in Provencher, instead of the current set up where the area
north of Garven Road is in a different riding.
Political geography
Vic Toews has been
able to win the riding with massive majorities since 2004, including
winning 71% of the vote in 2011. However, before the Conservatives
united in 2003, the riding featured close races between the Reform
Party/Canadian Alliance and the Liberals in 1993, 1997 and to a
lesser extent in 2000. It is in these elections, that the linguistic
polarity (Mennonite Germans vs. Franco-Manitobans) can be seen best.
During these elections it was the Franco-Manitobans that backed
Liberal candidate David Iftody, while Mennonite German areas voted
Reform/Canadian Alliance. The rest of the riding (mostly in the east)
was the true battleground. Since 2004 however, the riding has become
solid blue. Both in 2008 and 2011, the Liberals won not one single
poll. You can still see the French areas of the riding on those maps
however, as those areas are still less Conservative (lighter blue)
than the rest of the riding. Meanwhile, the darkest blue areas are the
German Mennonite regions of the riding, where it was not uncommon for
Vic Toews to break 80% in any given poll.
Between 1988 and
2006, the top two parties in the riding have been the Liberals and
the Tories (or Reform/Canadian Alliance). However, in both the 2008 and
2011 elections, the NDP has become the 2nd party of the
riding. Between 1988 and 2006, the NDP was stuck in the single digits
before winning 14% in 2008 and 18% in 2011. The Liberals finished
third in both elections, including 7% in 2011, their worst showing
since 1930.
Both the 2008 and 2011 maps are very similar. The Tories won all but
one poll in both elections, which was won by the NDP each time. That one poll is the Roseau River Indian Reserve in
the south of the riding. The reserve consists of two parts, which is
why it looks like the NDP actually won two polls.
In both elections, the most Conservative areas were the German
Mennonite regions of Morris in the west, and Hanover and Steinbach in
the central-west part of the riding. Outside the Roseau River Indian
Reserve, the Tories were weakest in the Franco-Manitoban belt, that
beings in the southwest part of the riding, goes between Morris and
Hanover, and circles around Hanover ending on the east side of it.
This belt includes the rural municipalities of Montcalm, De
Salaberry, Ritchot, Tache and Ste. Anne, as well as the towns of Ste.
Anne and St-Pierre-Jolys. In 2008, the Liberals did the best in this
region, coming within one vote of winning one of the Ste. Anne polls.
In 2011, much of this support shifted to the NDP. It was not just
Francophones in Quebec who were brought in on the “Orange Wave”.
In 2008, the strongest NDP areas were not in the Franco-Manitoban
belt, but were rather in the northern part of the riding, an area
with fewer Germans or French.
 |
| 2011 results by polling division |
In 2011, the strongest Conservative poll was #127, which covers the
southern half of the community of Blumenort in Hanover Rural
Municipality. It also contains the community of Clear Springs in
Hanover, and some of Ste. Anne Rural Municipality. The Conservatives
won an astounding 92% in that poll, as well as the neighbouring poll
#128 covering the other half of Blumenort. Not surprisingly, the only
poll the NDP won (poll #91) was their best poll, where they won 58%.
Again, this poll covers the Roseau River Reserve. The next best poll
for the NDP was 36% in poll #71 in Ste. Anne.
 |
| 2008 results by polling division |
In 2008, poll #127 was also the strongest poll for the Tories. Vic
Toews picked up 87% of the vote there. The NDP's best poll was again
#91 again, where they won 44%. The next highest was #25 covering the
community of Prawda on the Trans-Canada Highway in Reynolds Rural
Municipality, where they won 35%. The Liberal's best poll was #71, in
Ste. Anne Rural Municipality, where the party won 34% of the vote,
losing by one single vote. This poll covers the rural area surrounding the
Town of Ste. Anne, including the community of La Coulee.
2008-2011 Two-party swing
.png) |
| Provencher two-party swing (Conservatives vs. NDP) from 2008 to 2011 |
The
2008 and 2011 elections produced similar results with Toews winning
65% and 71% respectively, and the NDP winning 14% and 18%
respectively. Both parties saw a modest increase in their vote share,
resulting in a small two-party swing of 0.9% from the NDP to the
Conservatives. Both parties gained mostly from the collapse of the
Liberals, and to a lesser extent the Greens, as well as the right wing
Christian Heritage Party, which actually finished 2nd
place in a number of polls. Blue areas on my swing map basically
show polls were the Tories benefited the most from this vote
collapse, while orange areas show where the NDP benefited from the
collapse. In the Franco-Manitoban belt, the NDP was the party that
benefited the most from the Liberal collapse in their traditional
territory. Albeit, the swing to the NDP there was very small,
indicated by the very light shades of orange on the map. Much of the
rest of the riding swung to the Tories. Not many areas swung heavily
to either party.
Demographics
Provencher is a
typical rural riding, in that it has a high percentage of Whites, at
85%. Most of the rest, 12% is of Aboriginal descent. Most Aboriginals
in the riding are in fact Metis, a remnant of the riding's history.
80% of the riding is Christian. The National Household Survey's
“Other Christian” category is the largest Christian group, at
36%. Many of these people are understandably Mennonites. 24% are
Catholics, and the United Church is the largest Protestant
denomination at 6%. 20% of the riding is non religious. The median
income in the riding is $29,000 and the average income is $36,000.
This is typical for the province. Over one third of the riding
identifies as ethnically German. There are also large numbers of
people who identified as ethnically French, English, Ukrainian,
Scottish and Russian.
 |
| Leading non-English native language by Census Subdivision |
Linguistically,
two thirds of residents have English as their native language. 17%
are native German speakers and 10% are native French speakers. Native
German speakers are concentrated in the former Mennonite Reserves,
like in Hanover, Steinbach and Morris. La Broquerie, an historically
French municipality next to Hanover also has more native German
speakers than French. Native French speakers are concentrated in the
Franco-Manitoba belt, which I mentioned earlier as running from
Montcalm Rural Municipality in the south, down the Red River Valley,
and wrapping around Hanover to include Ste. Anne. One town,
Saint-Pierre-Jolys actually has more native French speakers than
English. It is the only municipality in the riding where English
isn't the number one native language. There are also French
concentrations in the north end of the riding, mostly in Alexander
Rural Municipality.
Candidates
Due to the fact
that Provencher is such a safe seat, the race there has become the
least interesting of the four elections. And this fact is not just
based on voting history but is also confirmed with polling data. But
perhaps the Conservatives should be a little bit concerned, as a
Forum Research poll conducted on November 22 shows the Tories with just an 11 point lead
(48-37) over the Liberals there. Forum had the Tories ahead by 21
points just a week before. If momentum continues, the Liberals could
even pick this seat up! Right now, Provencher is actually the only
one of the four ridings where the Liberals are not ahead. Anything is possible though, with Justin Trudeaumania
sweeping the country, the Tories in hot water over Senate scandals,
and their local candidate being a no show for debates.
The Conservative
front runner is Ted Falk, who is a Mennonite from Steinbach, and a
businessman. He is also the former President of the Steinbach Credit
Union. According to polls, Falk's main opponent is Terry Hayward of
the Liberal Party. Hayward is a retired public servant from
Springfield, and was the former President of the Beausejour chapter
of something called “Canadian Parents for French”. The NDP is
running a Francophone in Natalie Courcelles Beaudry, also a public
servant. The Greens are running Janine Gibson, a past president of
Canadian Organic Growers. She lives near Steinbach.
If the Liberals
are only behind by 11 points in this riding, that means they will
likely gain back much of the Franco-Manitoban belt that has slipped
away from them in recent elections. It, of course, doesn't hurt that their
candidate was President of a French organization. The NDP may
actually be running a Francophone candidate, but it appears she isn't
making any inroads in the riding. She may prevent the Liberals from
winning enough of the Francophone vote to win the seat. But the
Liberals need more than just the Francophone areas to win; they'll
need some of the rural eastern and northern areas to win. Just
placing second in Provencher would be good news for the Liberals,
though who have finished third for the last two elections. A win
would be a sign that the Liberals are back on top across the country.
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